Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Standout Junior Expected To Pick Kentucky

Willis Will Make Kentucky Fans Like These Happy If He Picks The Wildcats As Expected

Wildcats In Good Shape For Willis. Kentucky may have to wait a while to get commitments from their top junior targets such as small forward Troy Williams and power forward Julius Randle, but they are likely to get some good news soon when Class of 2013 power forward Derek Willis is expected to pick the Wildcats. The 6’9″, 210-pound big man is making his announcement tomorrow at 4 PM at Bullitt East High School (Kentucky) and is choosing between Indiana, Kentucky, Louisville, and Purdue. The Kentucky-native previously committed to Purdue last April then later backed off his decision in August to explore all of his options. He would be head coach John Calipari‘s first Class of 2013 commitment and is a good athlete who can score all over the floor. He’s very skilled and can shoot and slash to the basket.

What They’re Saying

• Senior star Anthony Bennett on why he recently cut his list to Florida, Kentucky, Oregon, UNLV, and Washington: “I picked those five schools because I think it’s the best fit for me [and] I feel like if I go to any one of those schools I could work for a starting spot.”

Anthony Bennett Recently Discussed His New List (247 Sports)

• Senior standout Amile Jefferson‘s high school coach, Malcolm Musgrove, on when Jefferson will commit: “At the end of the week we’ll have a conversation and I think he could wrap this up in the next few weeks. I’m thinking by the end of January he will know.”
• Senior Demetris Morant on UNLV and senior Shabazz Muhammad: “I think Shabazz is really considering going [there] because he feels that they’re a great team and everyone else sees that, too, and they’re ranked in the nation. At first he wasn’t thinking about going there because he thought they wouldn’t be that good and he wouldn’t be looked at by [NBA] scouts. So he was mostly considering Kentucky, but now UNLV is in the top three.”
• Junior Troy Williams on his favorite schools: “I don’t have a favorite yet, but the number one spot is between North Carolina and Kentucky. They play my style and have great coaching staffs.”
• Junior Julius Randle on his ideal coach: “A coach that will push me, he’s not going to always tell me what I want to hear, but what I need to hear. Someone that will make me the best player I can be.”

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Each week through conference play, we’ll offer up a couple of different takes on the biggest question of the week in the Pac-12. This week:

“Is the Pac-12 a One-Bid League?”

Connor Pelton: With stats like “0-20 in road games against the RPI Top 100” and the conference’s best road win coming at New Mexico State, a good argument can be made that the Pac-12 is a one-bid league. The way I see it, however, the conference will get a minimum of two bids, and possibly a third depending on the conference tournament. At most, the selection committee will have two at-large bids set aside for the Pac-12 going into championship week. The teams most likely in the conversation for those two are California, Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona, while Oregon and Oregon State will have to win the Pac-12 tourney to get in.

Out of those four, I see Cal and Arizona stealing the bids. But if the ultra-soft bubble that we are hearing about now remains through the next two months, Stanford could pull a third at-large spot by making the championship of the tournament. Colorado doesn’t have a true “bad loss” on their schedule at the moment, but I can only see them winning 19-20 games going into championship week. With a poor RPI, they are going to have to get an automatic bid.

Of course this is pure speculation at this point, but we are coming to the point in the season where games like Colorado-Arizona (January 21 and February 9) and California-Stanford (January 29 and March 4) not only matter for the conference race, but also have a huge impact on the national bubble. I think the Pac-12 will get more than one bid, but it is crucial for all four of these teams to prove they belong night in and night out down this stretch run.

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I can’t help but be deliriously and feverishly excited about the beginning of intraconference play, but before we get down to brass tacks, there are a few things that we should probably be talking about before we settle up the conference pecking order. Let’s go over a few suggested topics of conversation before actual basketball begins.

1. Virginia is for real. The Cavaliers’ national ranking is totally deserved and barring injuries or collapse, this team is poised to make some noise in March. Mike Scott is the flavor of the week amongst the college basketball stat-erati because, well he is kind of killing it, but Virginia’s slow pace means that he’s not getting enough credit for it. The Cavaliers are certainly capable of taking down Duke or North Carolina and the team’s consistency is something that every other team in the conference envies.

Mike Scott Is Really Good

2. Scheduling is a double-edged sword. Both Maryland and North Carolina State have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have some scheduling issues that might get in the way of these aspirations. Maryland has a daunting conference schedule that includes two shots apiece at Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, as well as a non-conference tilt with Temple. That gives the Terrapins plenty of chances to register signature wins, but it also means that there are seven games on the schedule that are more likely to be losses than not. Conversely, the NC State Wolfpack has two games apiece against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Mark Gottfried’s team is likely to rack up plenty of wins, but they have far less opportunities to make an impression with a certain tournament selection committee.

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A couple of weeks ago, there was no way we would have picked this game to be the most interesting game of the first week of Pac-12 play. While Stanford has been a pleasant surprise through their non-conference schedule, UCLA was on the very short list of the least enjoyable teams in the conference to watch. However, the Bruins have quietly strung together five straight wins albeit against abominable competition and the Cardinal, coming off a tough home loss to Butler, have to prove that they are capable of contending for the regular season title. In short, while both of these teams have plenty of doubters, and rightfully so, each has a chance to earn a modicum of respect by taking care of business on opening weekend.

Stanford’s loss to Butler last week could be explained away in a variety of ways: it was their first game against significant competition in two and a half weeks; the home crowd was absent most of the students and provided little boost to a sleepwalking team; the Bulldogs got plenty of fortunate bounces; and really, it’s a loss to a fast-improving team that has been the national runner-up the past two seasons. Regardless of the excuses, it serves as a reminder that the Cardinal have largely built their status as one of the conference favorites on a loss – a hard-fought six-point defeat against Syracuse in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game. They have a win over North Carolina State (in which they had to fight back from a 12-point second half deficit) and a win over Oklahoma State, but neither of those teams look like future recipients of an NCAA Tournament invite. So, there is little so far in the positive results category to indicate that this Stanford vintage is significantly better than last year’s 15-16 team that won seven conference games.

Josh Owens Has Been Stanford's Emotional Leader & Go-To Scorer (Credit: Zach Sanderson)

However, if you dig deeper into the metrics, you see a Cardinal team that is winning games because of excellent defense (only twice this season – in the loss to Butler and the uneven win over NC State – have they allowed more than a point per possession), while doing almost all the things that you want to see an efficient offensive team do (they shoot it well, they hit the offensive glass and they get to the free throw line). Only their turnovers on nearly 22% of their offensive possessions present cause for alarm, and that should be a number that sinks as their primary ballhandlers (sophomore Aaron Bright and freshman Chasson Randle) get more comfortable. And if you trust only the eye test, you see a team that appears to run a lot more smoothly than they did last year, when deep into the season the Cardinal appeared to be out of sync on both ends of the court. Bright has taken over as an extension of head coach Johnny Dawkins on the floor, senior center Josh Owens is the team’s emotional leader and go-to scorer, Randle is a steadily improving freshman, and there are a handful of other nice pieces elsewhere on this roster (Anthony Brown, Josh Huestis, Dwight Powell) ready to make positive contributions on both ends. This is an improved Stanford team, but they’ve still got to prove it and they’ll have plenty of chances, starting tonight.

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Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Josh Paunil, the RTC recruiting guru. We encourage you to check out his website dedicated solely to college basketball recruiting, National Recruiting Spotlight, for more detailed recruiting information. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to who the hot prospects are at the lower levels of the sport. If you have any suggestions as to areas we’re missing or different things you’d like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Lead Story: Jarnell Stokes Commits To Tennessee, Will Enroll In January

Maybe This Is What Swayed Jarnell Stokes To Tennessee.

Top-25 Senior Picks Volunteers Despite Late Kentucky Push. It’s been a long road for Class of 2012 power forward Jarnell Stokes but the recruiting process for him is finally over. The 6’8″, 250-pound big man committed to Tennessee last Thursday after transferring to Oak Hill Academy (VA) over this summer, then changing his mind and transferring to Southwind Central High School (TN) where he was ruled ineligible to play his senior season of basketball. He will be joining the Vols in January and looks to help them in every phase of the game. Stokes is the type of player who can help Tennessee on both ends of the floor, especially in rebounding — an area that Cuonzo Martin’s team could really use some help in. He picked UT over Memphis and a late push by Kentucky head coach John Calipari. Opposite of what many people many think, the difficult part of the transition for Stokes won’t be the physical aspect, it will be the mental part given the fact that he’ll have to face a sharp learning curve. His impact will be limited this year but he will still be a contributor and he’ll get an early head start on making the jump from high school to college compared to everyone else in the Class of 2012. He was never going to be a four-year player anyway so the Vols are simply getting an extra semester out of the Tennessee native.

What They’re Saying

• Senior Ricardo Ledo (Providence) on recruiting junior star Nerlens Noel and others: “If I could choose any player to commit to Providence, it would be [Class of 2012 power forward] Chris Obekpa and I’m also trying to help out with [Class of 2013 center] Nerlens Noel. I’m trying to get [Class of 2012 small forward] Jakarr Sampson on board and a couple more I haven’t named. I just tell them about the Providence atmosphere and to try to start something new, don’t try to be like everybody else and go to a school just because of the school’s name. I just tell them to be your own man, set your own trend.”

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Only one game last night, but tonight we resume full-on Atlantic Coast Conference action. Last night was the debut of Alex Len, a 7’1″ big man from the Ukraine who is as skilled as he is giant. He looked pretty good in his debut for Maryland. Then again, this picture from his Twitter account is even better:

Alex Len Will Break You

I, for one, am excited for a season with 100% more Alex Len.

1. Shelby Star: North Carolina State is moving the ball incredibly well. Over the past four games, 75% of Wolfpack field goals have been assisted. As a team, they are averaging 17.4 APG, good for second best in the ACC, behind only North Carolina. This is pretty impressive, but the article doesn’t get into how good NC State looks in terms of tempo free statistics. According to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the Wolfpack actually leads the ACC in percentage of field goals assisted (62.8%) and are the 26th passing-est team in the country. For reference, last year the team only assisted on 55.3%, not even ranking within the top one hundred nationally. The statistics seem to back it up:  the culture of the Wolfpack is really changing.
2. Boston Globe: It’s easy to disparage Matt Humphrey, the shot-hogging, terribly inaccurate inexplicable focal point of Boston College‘s terrible offense. That’s a shame too, because it’s easy to forget that Humphrey is a person, in truth, just another college kid. He had a hard time fitting in at his old school and after an awkward year of waiting is having a hard time fitting in at his new school. Julian Benbow’s profile of the swing man is a must-read for anyone who wants to better understand one of the most confusing players in the ACC.
3. Washington Post: Paul Jesperson made his college debut on Tuesday, playing for short-handed Virginia which lost two players to transfer over the weekend. Jesperson, this time last week, had expected that he wouldn’t be playing until next season, taking a redshirt. This profile goes over how Jesperson made the decision to step up for his team and take to the big stage of college basketball.
4. Baltimore Sports Report: The ACC is not very good this year. The typically excellent league is in a down year, and the conference’s combined non-conference record reflects the overall weakness of this year. While Duke and North Carolina appear to be as strong as ever, the ACC middle class appears to have fallen through the basement. Still, the non-conference schedule isn’t completely finished and the article includes some speculation about how a number of teams (notably Miami and Maryland) might be able to finish strong.
5. ESPN: A nearly twenty year old record is poised to fall. Between 1992 and 1994, North Carolina won 25 home games in a row, setting a Dean Smith Center Record that remarkably stood up, even in the midst of two national championship runs. When the Tar Heels take on Elon tonight, they have a shot of tying a record that neither Vince Carter, Raymond Felton, or Tyler Hansbrough could match. A win on Sunday against Monmouth would break the record. These kinds of streaks are ultimately meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but it’s a nice reflection of what this team has accomplished so far.

1. Washington Post: The big news this weekend comes from Virginia as K.T. Harrell and James Johnson have both decided to transfer.  Johnson was a redshirt freshman who saw very little playing time, but Harrell was a key rotation player who waged a fairly successful freshman campaign, routinely knocking down big shots from beyond the arc and starting 15 games. Harrell, however, has struggled on offense this season and has seen his minutes drop. Both players cited a lack of playing time as the reason for transferring. Coach Tony Bennett doesn’t seem very concerned with these decisions, noting that transfers are becoming more common and that he’s had at least one player leave his program every year that he’s been a head coach. While Bennett might be unworried, at least one player transferring every year probably seems too high for Virginia’s fans.
2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow has some interesting speculation about the rapid fire re-commitment and then de-commitment of Torian Graham. Apparently, while Graham definitely wants to play for North Carolina State, someone else is preventing him from doing so. He brings up the oft-discussed possibility that the Wolfpack is waiting to make sure that Graham meets the necessary academic qualifications to play college basketball, but he also brings up a more insidious theory where a relative, hanger-on, or handler is pushing Graham to sign with a more high-profile program. While this theory doesn’t yet have any hard confirmation, it’s an intriguing story. Hopefully, it’s not true.
3. Washington Times: On Friday, Pe’Shon Howard made his season debut for Maryland. Howard has been out with a broken foot,  but played 30 minutes against Radford. The return of the talented guard is a huge boost for the Terrapins who haven’t yet seen the kind of stellar play they had been expecting of freshman guard Nick Faust. The Saturday reinstatement of freshman big man Alex Len is expected to be another significant gain for Maryland. Len has been serving an NCAA suspension related to his time playing with a professional club in the Ukraine.
4. Soaring to Glory: It’s been a rough year for Boston College fans, and it doesn’t look like things are going to get any easier. Soaring to Glory breaks down the remaining Eagles schedule and tries to predict how may games this team can actually win. Spoiler Alert: Not many.
5. Tobacco Road Blues: Chanukkah is nearly over, but it’s not too late to acknowledge the proud tradition of Jewish basketball at Duke and North Carolina. While Jon Scheyer gets the first spot on this list, the great Lennie Rosenbluth is probably the greatest son of David to play in the rivalry: In case you’re unfamiliar with the name, Rosenbluth averaged 28 PPG during the Tar Heels’ undefeated 1957 season, capped off by a triple-overtime victory over Wilt Chamberlain’s Kansas team.

1. Aaric Murray, who is sitting out this season after transferring from La Salle to West Virginia, was arrested in Philadelphia, his hometown, on Thursday morning for possession of marijuana. Having not learned the specifics of the charges we cannot comment too much other than to say that unlike narcotics, which marijuana is not despite reports otherwise on multiple sites yesterday, marijuana possession usually carries fairly light penalties. We are also not familiar with the details of Murray’s prior legal troubles, which could affect his sentencing if he is formally charged, although we have heard reports of prior behavioral issues. Murray, who averaged 15.2 PPG and 7.7 RPG as a sophomore at La Salle, would be a significant addition to the Mountaineer lineup next season assuming he does not blow that opportunity by ending up in these situations often. West Virginia has only released the following statement from Bob Huggins: “I’ve been alerted about the situation and the matter will be handled internally.”
2. We have seen a lot of strange things from teenagers involved in the world of college recruiting before, but the actions of Torian Graham yesterday may have raised (or lowered) the bar. In the morning, Green, one of the top shooting guards in this year’s graduating class, recommitted to North Carolina State after having backed out of a commitment he had made to the school in May. When he announced, Graham said, “I’m all in for NC State.” Just a few hours later Graham decommitted from North Carolina State again saying, “Something came up… I don’t really want to talk about it.” We have no idea what could have come up in such a short period of time other than Mark Gottfried saying the offer was no longer on the table that could have changed Graham’s mind, but as you can imagine the people around the NC State program are not to thrilled with the latest turn of events and are suggesting that the team stop recruiting Graham. We doubt that Gottfried will do that, but it should be concerning for him or any other coach that is recruiting Graham.
3. We have a couple of Khem Birch updates coming from fairly reliable, but divergent sources. On one side there is a report that Birch is interesting in coming back to Pittsburgh although he has not talked to Jamie Dixon yet. The other side is that Birch is headed to either Missouri or New Mexico State. While we would be more interested in the first report (for the posts we could write about it), we have a hard time believing that Dixon would be that ready to take back Birch after his decision to leave the school although technically it could be viewed as a freshman going home for winter break if it weren’t for all the games that Pittsburgh will be playing while still on “winter break”. The latter report seems more realistic and also offers the tantalizing possibility of a “Redemption Team” with Frank Haith coaching Birch and Jabari Brown if Birch were to head Missouri.
4. Yesterday brought us the latest versions of power rankings from Luke Winn and Mark Titus. As you are well aware, the two approach these rankings very differently: Winn does so by providing you with a lot of quantitative analysis in a manner that is approachable for the casual fan while Titus does it with a mix of personal anecdotes and witty commentary. This week, Winn provides his usual adroitly presented analysis (though without the shocking statistic that we have come to expect) while Titus actually plays the part of a serious basketball writer by providing some thoughtful analysis without as much of his usual humor (it is still in there, but like Winn’s it is tamed down a bit this week).
5. With the resurgence of Indiana this season there have been a lot of analysts trying to come up with a reason for the Hoosiers’ improvement. Some claim that it was just a matter of time before Tom Crean’s recruits could contend while others say that is it merely the improved health of the team. Sebastian Pruiti theorizes that it is due to their improved defense using advanced metrics and freeze-frame analysis from their games this season. While Pruiti applauds the Hoosiers’ efforts and improved defense he is quick to add that we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with projections for the Hoosiers this season.

Matt Patton is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report from tonight’s Texas vs. North Carolina game in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina absolutely pummeled Texas from buzzer to buzzer Wednesday night in Chapel Hill. From the opening tip the Tar Heels came out swinging, and the Longhorns immediately departed from the game plan. Needless to say Rick Barnes was livid after the game. He noted his team’s lack of offensive discipline, which he implicitly tied to Myck Kabongo‘s poor first half play. Apparently, Kabongo abandoned the team’s plan for the opening possession for the second straight game. After a horrendous first half, Barnes only played his freshman point guard two minutes in the second half. Why? “Guys aren’t gonna play if they don’t want to play.”

Myck Kabongo is still Adapting to the College Game.

Inconsistent point guard play has plagued Texas two of the last three seasons. Two years ago, Barnes rotated Avery Bradley — a score-first guard — and Dogus Balbay — a defense-first creator — at the one to mixed success. The Longhorns climbed to the top of the polls only to plummet in conference play before eventually losing to Wake Forest in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. Last year, again Barnes employed two point guards with Cory Joseph and Balbay running the team. The team’s offense was significantly more productive thanks in large part to Jordan Hamilton’s development and Tristan Thompson’s ownership of the offensive glass. Coming into this year it finally looked like Barnes had one point guard, the freshman Kabongo.

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There was only a single ACC game last night, but it was a doozy. After a last-second C.J. Leslie shot, the Wolfpack narrowly escaped with a win against St. Bonaventure on the road. Of course, North Carolina State shouldn’t have needed the last minute heroics, but a win is a win in Rochester or Raleigh. Tonight, there is a nice slate of games, including the latest installment in a fun inter-conference series.

The Marquee Match-Up

• Texas at North Carolina at 7:00 PM on ESPN2

The Longhorns and the Tar Heels have played a December game for the past few years, and despite Texas’s recent winning streak, the games are usually fairly close. With a highly-touted North Carolina team playing in Chapel Hill, Roy Williams‘ squad comes to this game as the clear favorite. Texas is young and small, but the ability to field a lighting-quick line-up that features J’Covan Brown and freshman sensation Myck Kabongo could challenge North Carolina. Kendall Marshall is the straw that stirs the powder-blue drink and unfortunately, he lacks the lateral quickness to defend fast guards. Since both players demand coverage, this isn’t an issue that can be solved by merely throwing Dexter Strickland at the problem. Still, if the Tar Heels stand poised to struggle defensively against the speed of Texas, the Longhorns will have their own defensive problems with a long and tall North Carolina team.

A History Lesson

• Virginia at Seattle at 10:10 PM

Seattle used to be a basketball powerhouse. Elgin Baylor led the Redhawks to an NCAA championship game in 1958, where the team lost to Kentucky. Since then, Seattle vanished off the college basketball map, playing in the NAIA for over twenty years before rejoining the NCAA in 2001. This year is only the third season that Seattle has played in Division I since the seventies. I bring this up as a way of explaining that Seattle University is still in the process of rebuilding its program since what were effectively fallow years. Playing in historic KeyArena, the newly nationally-ranked Cavaliers have a very good chance at extending their win streak against the over-matched Redhawks.

A Rare Sight

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