1. In big rivalry games such as Sunday’s Michigan vs. Michigan State showdown in East Lansing, you typically like to see the stars come out to play. But Michigan’s Tim Hardaway, Jr., was nowhere to be found. Michigan State’s defense deserves some of the credit, but this is not the first big game-turned-Michigan-loss where Hardaway’s presence has hardly been felt. Hardaway had a season-low four points on a career-worst 1-for-10 shooting Sunday afternoon. As AnnArbor.com‘s Kyle Meinke points out, Michigan is 2-4 in the six games in which Hardaway has failed to score double figures this season. The problem for the Wolverines and their quest for a Big Ten title is that three of those games have come since January 14 and each of them has resulted in a loss.
2. Keeping with the showdown in East Lansing, so much attention was paid to the left knee of Michigan State senior captain Draymond Green after he apparently injured it in the final minutes of the Spartans’ one-point loss to Illinois this weekend. But as Green seemed fine (he singlehandedly outrebounded Michigan), it was freshman Branden Dawson who continued to shine for the Tom Izzo’s team. Dawson, who had just four points in 12 minutes in his first career game against Michigan earlier this year, stayed hot with an inspired 10 points and four rebounds Sunday. He is now averaging 14.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 24.7 minutes in the three games since the first game against Michigan.
3. As for the other in-state rivalry game that played out in the Big Ten on Sunday, Illinois coach Bruce Weber was disappointed in his team’s performance at home against rival Northwestern, which took down the Fighting Illini 74-70 at Assembly Hall. “It would be an understatement to say it’s a disappointing loss,” Weber said afterward. It was the defense, in particular, that irked the head coach, who saw his team hold Michigan State to 24.1% shooting just five days earlier. On Sunday, Northwestern shot 60.4% from the field.
4. Purdue coach Matt Painter said this week that he wants a fight, but he may not want this much of a fight. After a home loss to rival Indiana on Saturday night, the Boilermakers face a serious uphill climb in the Big Ten and may soon find themselves on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. Painter said in a teleconference earlier this week that this season has probably been the most trying at Purdue since his first, when the team was 9-19. “I don’t mind the struggle,” Painter said. “I just want a fight. You’re going to have struggle. Just want guys to stay together and fight. You can tell sometimes when we have a bad call go against us, we hang our heads when we go back down the court.” It certainly doesn’t get easier for the Boilermakers, who have have games against Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan State in the next two weeks.
5. He may go on to become one of the all-time leading scorers in Ohio State basketball history, but even William Buford needs a little confidence booster every once in a while. He got that on Saturday with a big three-pointer to key Ohio State’s massive victory at Wisconsin. It hadn’t been Buford’s best afternoon, but the bucket was a big one. “When we need him, he shows up,” Buckeyes center Jared Sullinger said. “That’s one thing about Will: Crunch time, you always want to leave Will out on the floor because he has the (guts) to take a shot like that.” Buford had missed 11 of his 14 shots in the game at that point, and it was Ohio State’s first three-pointer of the game, but helped the Buckeyes clinch their first victory at the Kohl Center in 12 years.

We’re halfway home in Big Ten conference play and it’s easy to argue that the conference race is no more sorted out now than it was on day one. But we can still take a good, hard look at how teams have performed and what we can reasonably expect from them the rest of the way. Here’s our midseason team evaluations, grading each squad on its overall performance through the non-conference slate and first half of Big Ten play. We also have offer a best- and worst-case scenario for each club the rest of the way, as well as a more reasonable expectation.

Illinois (16-6 overall, 5-4 Big Ten)

• Overall Grade: B
• Worst-case scenario: Illinois beats Northwestern this week, but wins just three more games the rest of the way (at Nebraska, against Purdue and against Iowa).
• Best-case scenario: The Fighting Illini maintain homecourt advantage the rest of way, handling Purdue and Michigan and stealing back-to-back road wins in Ann Arbor and Bloomington to pad their resume.
• Reasonable expectation: With trips to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin remaining, the Illini have an uphill climb ahead of them. And that’s not good news for Bruce Weber.

Indiana (17-5 overall, 5-5 Big Ten)

Crean Has Indiana Looking Up But He Needs Some Road Wins

• Overall Grade: B+
• Worst-case scenario: The Hoosiers continue to struggle on the road, and lose at Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota. Sprinkle a home loss to Michigan State in there, and they finish with a 9-9 conference record. The Goodwill stores in Bloomington are overwhelmed with once-trendy “We’re Baaaaack” t-shirts.
• Best-case scenario: Cody Zeller finds the mojo he was working with early in the season, and leads the Hoosiers to the Sweet Sixteen as Tom Crean is named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
• Reasonable expectation: The Hoosiers are not the Top 10 team many thought they suddenly were early on, but they can do enough to get into the NCAA Tournament and solidify an overachieving season.

Iowa (11-11 overall, 3-6 Big Ten)

• Overall Grade: C+
• Worst-case scenario: The Hawkeyes split meetings against Penn State and Northwestern, lose at Nebraska and are blown out by Indiana and Wisconsin at home.
• Best-case scenario: Iowa picks up the pace against some of the weakest competition in the league, and goes 5-4 the rest of the way.
• Reasonable expectation: Most of the heavy lifting is out of the way, but Iowa will hover around .500 the rest of the season.

1. There may be no team in the conference that ebbs and flows with its star the way Michigan State does with Draymond Green, and Spartan fans can not be feeling great about what they saw late Tuesday night. Not only did the Spartans drop a close one in Champaign, but they also lost Green indefinitely. It seems the senior do-everything forward injured his left knee in the final four minutes of the game (he did not return) though he made it seem afterward like he’d be OK. With a critical game against rival Michigan coming up this weekend and plenty on the line in the conference, Michigan State better hope so.
2. It’s been common knowledge that the Big Ten is the nation’s best conference this year, and with the release of the NCAA’s “Nitty-Gritty” report that the selection committee uses for the NCAA Tournament, it’s pretty well confirmed. Entering play Tuesday, the conference had two teams in the top six for RPI (Michigan State at #4 and Ohio State at #6) and five in the Top 25 overall (Michigan at #19, Indiana at #24 and Wisconsin at #25). No other conference had as many teams ranked (the same goes for the AP Top 25).
3. “Ohio State” and “bench production” are not two things you often see in the same sentence recently, unless it’s in reference to the lack thereof. But as nine Buckeyes played in this weekend’s win against Michigan, it’s clear that Thad Matta is starting to feel more comfortable going to his bench. It’s been a concern in years past that the Buckeyes have relied too heavily on their starting five. Matta still has five players averaging over 22 minutes each game, but it’s a transition from last year, when all five starters logged at least 29 minutes per game.
4. Wisconsin has a reputation for grinding out the shot clock and milking possessions, resulting in low-scoring games that cause opponents fits and requiring patience and efficiency. But the Badgers say a bit more aggressiveness on the offensive end lately has resulted in their spurt back toward the top of the conference standings.
5. Are the Fighting Illini going to dance? At this point, shouldn’t the question be about how well they can dance, whether they can dance at all? With wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, it seem Illinois is well on its way to another NCAA Tournament bid. Granted, Bruce Weber‘s group still has a tough slate ahead. But just how much damage can this group do the rest of the way? Wait and see.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Conference battles are heating up across the country as we head into the last month of regular season play. A lot will happen from not till the beginning of March, so it’s more important than ever to get a glimpse of as many teams as you can before tourney time. Let’s take a look at tonight’s action.

Tom Izzo and Michigan State need to prove themselves on the road.

#8 Michigan State at Illinois – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• As of Sunday, there are only three teams that rank in the top ten in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings – Kentucky, Syracuse, and Michigan State. In Big Ten play, Michigan State is lighting it up on the offensive end, ranking number one in both two-point and three-point shooting percentage. The Spartans face a true road test tonight against Illinois and it is on the road where Tom Izzo’s club still needs to prove itself. Michigan State is 2-2 on the road in conference and 4-4 on the season away from the Breslin Center. Michigan State has only allowed 5 teams to shoot over 50% eFG all season and each time it was on the road. They are 1-4 when a team goes over 50% eFG. Izzo and company has to play strong defense against 7’1” Illini center Meyers Leonard, who is hitting 60% of this two-point attempts. Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne are Michigan State’s tallest regulars at 6’9” and 6’10”, respectively. That’s a tough match-up for them individually, so look for the possible double team to prevent Leonard from taking over the game. If the Spartans get beat, it will be because the Illini two-pointed them to death.
• Illinois started the season off at a promising 10-0. They have since gone 5-6 and dropped their last three games and are in danger of dropping completely out of contention in the Big Ten. While Illinois has maintained its mediocre shooting in Big Ten play, their downfall has been an increase in turnovers and poor offensive rebounding. More turnovers and less second chance points equals empty possessions. For a team that has shot under 50% eFG in over half of its games, that’s a losing equation. However, the Illini has two saving graces on their side, they are playing at home where they are 11-1 (3-1) and they have the tallest guy on the court who happens to be very skilled. Illinois needs to feed the big man to have a chance in this one.
• The game hinges on Leonard’s ability to establish himself on the interior and Michigan State’s defensive strategy to deny him the ball. The winner of that chess match is likely to win the game. Also, keep a close eye on turnovers. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in steals, while Illinois gets the ball stolen more than anyone else in the league. Empty possessions for Bruce Weber’s squad will spell doom.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter (@Bill_Hupp) for his thoughts on hoops, food, PR, various city river walks, and life.

Reader’s Take

The Week That Was

• Tom Izzo is a Big Ten Legend: The emotional Michigan native won his 400th career game this week when Tom Izzo guided the Spartans to a comfortable 68-52 home win over Minnesota. No matter who leaves, the guy simply gets the most out of his teams year in and year out by emphasizing selflessness, defense, rebounding and toughness. There’s a reason that Michigan State always seems to be playing its best ball by the time March rolls around.
• Up Comes Frazier!: Raise your hand at home if you had Penn State’s Tim Frazier as a likely first-team All-Big Ten candidate in February. If you did, you are a basketball savant and should be writing this column [Ed. Note: Or you are a Penn State homer.]. The 6’2” junior dominated against Penn State’s soft non-conference schedule, but hasn’t slowed down in Big Ten play. In league games, he is leading the conference in scoring (18.7 PPG), assists (5.3 APG), and steals (2.5. SPG). Admittedly, wins have been hard to come by for the Nittany Lions this season, but Frazier has been a bright spot in Happy Valley.
• Welcome Back, Wisco: With Bo Ryan still at the helm, nobody thought Wisconsin would be down for long, and while it hasn’t always been pretty, the Badgers ran their current winning streak to five games after they downed Indiana at the Kohl Center this week. During this streak, they ground out tough road wins over Purdue and Illinois and claimed home victories over Nebraska, Northwestern and Indiana.

After a 3-2 start to conference play, Ohio State Has Won Its Last Four Games By A Combined 90 Points. (Al Messerschmidt/Getty)

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (19-3, 7-2) – Value City Arena isn’t the first Big Ten gym to come to mind when you think of fearsome places to play in the conference, but teams that have entered “The Grey” recently haven’t had much success. The students are passionate and the place is big and cavernous, more of a professional arena than a cozy college gymnasium. There’s a reason why the Buckeyes have won 38 straight at VCA and are winning their home Big Ten games in the nation’s best conference (according to the RPI) by an average of 24 points.
2. Michigan State (17-4, 6-2) – Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Michigan State’s win over Minnesota was that it proved that point guard Keith Appling can go 1-8 from the field and score seven points … and the Spartans can still win by double digits. Freshman Branden Dawson continues to show flashes of brilliance, as he stepped up to score 16 points in Appling’s stead. Someone needs to provide a second scoring option to Draymond Green and if it can’t be Appling that day, it falls to Dawson or Valpo transfer Brandon Wood. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Cincinnati and Vanderbilt will look to keep rolling but a Big 12 clash highlights Saturday’s slate.

#5 Missouri @ #3 Baylor – 2:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPN (*****)

This Clash Between Big 12 Powers Offers a Contrast in Strengths

• This game could really come down to which team imposes its will. For Missouri, it would love nothing more than to speed the game up, force turnovers and not let Baylor get set in its half court defense. Missouri’s strength is its guard play. Frank Haith employs a four-guard lineup and it has worked wonders this season. The Tigers have shot the ball very well this season and that’s going to have to continue on the road in Waco. Missouri has struggled against teams with bigger front lines so its guards must shoot well if penetration is cut off and Ricardo Ratliffe is limited inside by Baylor’s trees. Kim English, Michael Dixon and Marcus Denmon can flat out shoot the basketball and Haith will need all three contributing in order to beat Baylor. It will be a bonus if Ratliffe can get anything going inside but Mizzou’s guards must continue to make shots in a tough environment.
• Baylor is the stronger team inside and Scott Drew knows it. Getting Perry Jones III to assert himself in the paint along with Quincy Acy could be the key for the Bears in this game. Baylor will have the home crowd and energy behind itself and capitalizing on that is going to be very important against a team that loves to speed you up and force turnovers. In order for Jones and Acy to get the ball, Baylor’s guard play must be up to the task. Missouri will pressure Pierre Jackson and A.J. Walton all game because the Tigers need to run up the turnovers and transition points in order to offset what should be a significant Baylor edge on the glass. If Baylor can slow the game down a bit, limit turnovers and get the ball inside, it should be on its way to a win. If Jones III and Acy are hot in the paint, that will open up Brady Heslip and Jackson from deep. Jackson does so much for this team with penetration, passing and shooting ability but Heslip is great spotting up or coming off a screen. Baylor has multiple weapons of varying height, something Missouri may have a very hard time dealing with.
• As we said, Missouri must speed the game up and create turnovers against the turnover-prone Bears. Ratliffe is a very good post player but we’re not sure if he’s going to be able to score consistently as the only Mizzou big man against Baylor’s immense height in the paint. If Missouri can’t get anything inside it must knock down deep shots and get to the free throw line. The Tigers shoot 77.6% from the charity stripe and that could end up being their most efficient way of scoring against Baylor aside from the three ball. Baylor didn’t defend well against Kansas but Missouri was exposed in a tough environment at Kansas State. If Baylor is physical and sticks to the game plan of good half court offense, the Bears should win. Missouri should play better in its second time on the road against a very good team but you have to favor Baylor at home given the size mismatch.

Cincinnati @ West Virginia – 3:00 PM EST Saturday on ESPNU (****)

• Read the rest of this entry »

Tonight’s Lede. It wasn’t just any other Tuesday night, as a number of ranked teams were in action and there was more than enough intrigue around the country to keep everyone interested. Whether it was a team few people seem to believe in slowly swaying hearts and minds, or a much-maligned former prep star bringing forth the game of his life, or an acerbic coach showing his true colors in a postgame interview, there was a lot to cover tonight. Let’s jump right in…

Will Some Pundits Begin to Take Baylor Seriously Now? (AP/C. Riedel)

Your Watercooler Moment, Part I. Baylor Stakes a Claim of Legitimacy. One of the knocks against Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears to date has been its lack of exceptional road wins this season. Apparently the non-believers did not take seriously wins at BYU and Northwestern, although neither the Marriott Center nor the Welsh-Ryan Arena these days are the easiest places to escape victorious. Still, Kansas State’s Bramlage Arena is universally regarded as a tough-as-nails venue, borne out most recently by K-State’s dominant weekend victory over an unbeaten Missouri squad. Baylor’s mid-second half run to come back from seven points down behind several eye-popping defensive transition dunks, along with its ability to hold K-State to a single bucket in the last four minutes of the game, showed America how things have changed. Last year, Drew’s Bears hardly played defense, generally preferring to use that end of the court to rest before another wild LaceDarius Dunn field goal attempt. This year, long green-and-yellow-clad arms and legs seem to cover all four corners of the court, and in fact, the two game-saving plays on this night resulted from a strip from behind of Angel Rodriguez with three seconds remaining, and a deflected pass on the ensuing inbounds play. The Bears are not going to win every game this season, but they’ve already won 16 and have survived one of their four toughest road tests on the schedule. With Pierre Jackson (10/11 assts) running the show, Brady Heslip (13/4 stls) providing scoring punch, and an elite corps of forwards in Quincy Acy, Perry Jones, III, and Quincy Miller wreaking havoc defensively, it’s time to stop questioning Scott Drew’s team and take the Bears seriously as a national title contender.

Your Watercooler Moment, Part II. Brandon Paul Hits Everything, Leads Illini Over Ohio State. In two-and-a-half seasons at Illinois, Brandon Paul has been better defined by what he is not rather than what he is. The former Chicago-area prep star who came to Champaign with sky-high expectations has largely disappointed, gradually improving his scoring output over three years but never shooting the ball efficiently (career 37.2% shooter) nor becoming an effective distributor (2.0 APG). Paul must have eaten a full bowl of his Wheaties this morning. The 6’4″ junior literally took over tonight’s game against OSU, scoring his team’s last 15 points en route to a career-high 43 points on 8-10 shooting from behind the arc. Unless you saw the game, you cannot comprehend just how ridiculous a couple of the late threes that Paul hit were, perhaps none more so than his final trey which gave Illinois a four-point lead with 43 seconds remaining.

Read the rest of this entry »

With last night’s unique, electric, and egalitarian college football championship game behind us we figured it was time to pull out our RTC BCS Poll. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the concept, we are applying the BCS formula to college basketball to see what the results would be if college basketball had a BCS system instead of actually deciding a champion on the court. We have done this each of the past three years. Here are the results from 2009, 2010, and 2011. The posts are from various points in the season (either midway through the year or potentially at the end of the regular season) This year we are going to try to expand it out a little further and track the changes essentially from the start of conference play.

The rules are essentially the same as the BCS and as in previous years (with a few upgrades):

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, Massey, Colley, and LRMC as the computer polls. The human poll scores are calculated as a fraction (in decimal form) of the percentage of possible votes (1625 in the AP and 775 in the ESPN/USA Today respectively). Like the BCS we remove the highest and lowest computer rankings from a team’s overall computer ranking. The highest and lowest rankings are noted with green and red boxes. In the even that there were multiple similar highest or lowest scores we picked the first one in chart.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

Read the rest of this entry »

Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference. Follow him on Twitter @Bill_Hupp for his thoughts on hoops, food, Russian nesting dolls and life.

Reader’s Take 

The Week That Was:

• OT Madness in Madison: It was just one of the most unusual endings to a basketball game in recent memory. Ryan Evans banked home a turn-around desperation heave from the right wing as time expired, and many thought the Michigan State–Wisconsin game in Madison was heading to a second overtime tied at 63. It was waved off, however, after officials discovered the there was a 0.2-second disparity between the game clock on the basket and the one on the scoreboard. By rule, the officials used the clock on the basket, which expired with the ball in Evans’ fingertips. (The must-see full video is after the jump). Ball game over as Wisconsin’s woes continued under truly bizarre circumstances.
• Bertrand to the Rescue: A subtle, underrated move by Illini coach Bruce Weber has Illinois at 3-1 and currently tied for second in the conference. Looking to shake up his lackluster team, Weber gave little-used sophomore wing Joseph Bertrand more minutes against Missouri. Bertrand responded by going 9-9 from the field for 19 points. In the last five games, Bertrand has averaged 15 points and 3.2 rebounds in 29.2 minutes, and has even started the past two. He poured in a career-high 25 points on 11-12 shooting to help the Illini survive Nebraska at home.
• Road Warriors: First, Iowa took down Wisconsin at the Kohl Center. As a follow-up act, the Hawkeyes went up to The Barn this week and knocked off Minnesota. That’s no small feat for team who was blown out by Campbell earlier this season and whose leading scorer in conference play is 28th in scoring (Matt Gatens at 10.5 PPG). It’s doubtful Fran McCaffrey’s bunch will finish conference play with even a .500 record, but they have proven they can make shots and win on the road.

Who Will Stop Draymond Green And Michigan State? (Al Goldis/AP)

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1) – When you consider that Ohio State plays in the nation’s top-ranked conference (according to the RPI), it’s pretty insane that the Buckeyes have won three of their Big Ten games by an average of 31 points. They aren’t just beating lesser opponents; they are destroying them. It’s a clear indication of why the Buckeyes are considered by many the class of the conference and one of the favorites to win it all in New Orleans. Another reason is that OSU is ranked in the top 3 in 16 of the Big 10’s 21 statistical categories. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Over the weekend it was reported that former Pittsburgh freshman Khem Birch was going to announce on Sunday night, but after giving it a little more thought he decided to postpone his decision until today. According to reports, Birch is deciding between Florida and UNLV. Both programs would appear to be a good fit for Birch as he could potentially pair up with either Patric Young or Mike Moser for the next two seasons. We are not sure what the real reason was for Birch’s decision to leave Pittsburgh, but either school would be just about as good of a landing spot as you could hope for when you are a transfer.
2. After initially suspending Keala King for its games at USC and UCLA, Arizona State dismissed King, its starting point guard and leading scorer. Playing out of position due to Jahii Carson being academically ineligible, King averaged 13.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game, but as Doug Haller points out he had not fully adapted to running the team as he averaged 3.9 turnovers per game and often held the ball too long. We are assuming that was not the reason for his dismissal and the fact that the other two players (Kyle Cain and Chris Corvin) who were suspended with King remain on the team suggests that King did something in addition to his prior “unacceptable conduct” that led to his dismissal. Like Birch, King should have no shortage of suitors as he was a top-50 recruit coming out of college and plenty of Division I schools would be interested in a high-level point guard who can score and will have at least two years of eligibility remaining.
3. Less than two years after transferring from Illinois (he left the team once before deciding to rejoin them then finally leaving the school), Jeffrey Jordan has decided to transfer from UCF citing “personal reasons”. Neither Jordan nor anyone affiliated with the school has gone into further detail about what those reasons are, but this appears to be the end of his college basketball career as this was his senior year and we doubt that the NCAA would grant him another year of eligibility. It appears that his younger brother Marcus, who is the more talented of the two and leads the team with 17.2 points per game, will remain with the team. As for Jeffrey we assume he will continue working on his website along with his brother and some friends called Heir-Jordan.com and whatever other business possibilities are open to an heir.
4. Since the Crosstown Shootout Brawl Xavier has been in a freefall going from a Final Four pick by some to out of the top 25. While many people have been perplexed by the precipitous drop, Luke Winn thinks the Musketeers need to embrace their old mentality. We are sure that some people are going to take this the wrong way like they do with some of Winn’s statistical work, but in essence what he is saying that the team may have become too passive after all the criticism it received. As usual, we tend to agree with Winn on this and it reminds us of how the old Miami Hurricane football teams used to talk about playing with swagger. Playing with too much gets you in trouble by picking up fouls or penalties (or having brawls), but playing without it makes you vulnerable especially if you have grown accustomed to playing that way.
5. Looking for football analysis after the Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs? Well you came to the wrong place. If you were trying to get it this weekend at the Siena–Niagara game you were also out of luck. After Siena initially told fans that they would simulcast the New York Giants game on the scoreboard during their game against Niagara to enable them to follow their favorite college team and favorite NFL team and getting the green light from the local FOX affiliate, Siena was informed by the NFL that doing so would violate the league’s copyright interest so they had to cancel the promotion. As for the actual game, the Saints won 72-60 while the Giants won 24-2. Unfortunately, this could be an issue again next week as the Giants game, which starts at 4:30 PM on Saturday, will probably run into Siena’s next game, which is at Manhattan and starts at 7 PM.