Gonzaaga’s Joel Ayayi had two double-doubles through his first two seasons in Spokane. After an 18-point, 10-rebound performance against San Francisco over the weekend, however, Ayayi now has four double-doubles in 10 games this season. While the likes of Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs and Drew Timme rightfully dominate the headlines, Gonzaga’s spot at #1 in the RTC16 remains firmly gripped thanks in part to its premier depth. #2 Baylor picked up its second KenPom top-100 win on Saturday at Iowa State, and the Bears next six opponents are ranked inside of the top 65. Villanova is currently dealing with COVID issues which include head coach Jay Wright, but chaos within the RTC16 moves the Wildcats up to #3. Here’s a look at the first RTC16 of 2021.

Conference Breakdown: Big Ten (5), Big 12 (4), Big East (2), SEC (2), AAC (1), Pac-12 (1), WCC (1)

Risers

• Texas: After missing five of its final six three-point attempts in the first-half at Kansas, the Longhorns began the second-half by drilling their first six attempts after the break. While Greg Brown was held to just five points, five of his Longhorn teammates scored in double-figures. Shaka Smart’s second win over Kansas while at Texas sent a statement to the rest of the Big 12 — after sitting at #10 in the RTC16 last week, Texas now appears ranked at #4 in all seven ballots cast this week.
• Iowa: Since collapsing late against Minnesota, Iowa has compiled a pair of quality wins against Northwestern and at Rutgers. Jordan Bohannon scored in double-figures in each game, including tying his season-high of 24 points against Northwestern. While both the Wildcats and Scarlet Knights each averaged 1.06 points per possession against Iowa, it was an improvement from the 1.32 PPP allowed by the Hawkeyes against Minnesota.
• Michigan: The Wolverines added a pair of victories against KenPom top-60 teams last week, and they are now 5-0 against top-100 teams, with four of those victories coming by more than 10 points. Freshman Hunter Dickinson is now averaging 16.6 points per game with a 72.6 percent field-goal percentage. After appearing among the top-10 in just a single RTC16 ballot last week, the Wolverines now appear at #5 in over half of the ballots this week.

Fallers

• Houston: Houston’s fall this week comes after a narrow loss at Tulsa. While the Cougars rebounded with a win over SMU on Sunday, the team learned that Caleb Mills would be stepping away from the team. While Mills has been limited early in the year, he averaged more than 13 points per game last season and made north of 35 percent of his threes.
• Kansas: The Jayhawks’ 25-point home loss to Texas tied the school’s largest margin of defeat at home (Feb. 1, 1989, vs. Missouri) going back to the 1949-50 season. David McCormack’s struggles continue as he is now shooting just 32.9 percent from the field, a steep drop from the 52.1 percent notch he shot last season.
• West Virginia: Not only has West Virginia lost two of its last three games, including this past weekend’s matchup with Oklahoma, but the team was dealt the blow of Oscar Tshiebwe leaving the program. Jalen Bridges saw his minutes rise against Oklahoma and while the Mountaineers lost the game, Bridges scored 19 points, made 5-of-6 three-point attempts and showed that he can bring a spark to the WVU offense moving forward.

Notable Upcoming Games

• Monday: West Virginia @ Oklahoma State, 9 PM EST
• Tuesday: Rutgers @ Michigan State, 9 PM EST, ESPN2
• Wednesday: Minnesota @ Michigan, 8:30 PM EST
• Thursday: USC @ Arizona, 9 PM EST
• Saturday: Texas @ West Virginia, TBA
• Sunday: Minnesota @ Iowa, TBA
• Sunday: Loyola-Chicago @ Drake, 6 PM EST

It is often stated that college basketball is where the unexpected becomes the ordinary and that was on full display last week as three members of the previous top five of the RTC16 suffered a pair of defeats. #9 Duke entered the week as winners of nine straight games, but that came to a screeching halt on Tuesday night at Clemson when the Blue Devils fell behind early and were unable to right the ship in a 79-72 loss. A tough week became even tougher on Saturday when #8 Louisville took a 15-point lead a little over 10 minutes into the game and then made enough winning plays down the stretch to leave Cameron Indoor Stadium with an impressive 79-73 victory. #12 Butler looked like it was going to survive #7 Seton Hall at home on Wednesday, as the Bulldogs jumped out to a 10-point halftime lead and seemed to be in complete control of the game. That was until Pirates star guard Myles Powell came up with some other plans. Powell scored 19 of his game-high 29 points in the second half, lifting Seton Hall to a formidable 78-70 win. There is an old adage about never letting one team beat you twice, but that seemed to be the case with Butler when it was subsequently dominated at DePaul on Saturday en route to a 79-66 loss. #16 Auburn began the week as one of the sport’s two remaining unbeaten teams, but the Tigers saw their hot start cool down significantly in a pair of uncompetitive losses at Alabama and at Florida. It will be interesting to track Duke, Butler and Auburn in the coming weeks to see if last week was just a blip on the radar or if it was the start of a troubling trend that will impact their seasons. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

Below is a review of how the selection process concluded for each Big Ten team and what they should expect in the first few rounds of the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

• Michigan State, #2 seed, East Region. Michigan State backed up its regular season conference co-title by beating Michigan on Sunday en route to the Big Ten Tournament title. It was the Spartans’ third win over the Wolverines in three weeks, giving them more Quadrant 1 wins than any team in America. Their reward? A potential date with #1 overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight. Of course, Tom Izzo’s club will have to get there first, which is easier said than done. Assuming it gets past #15 Bradley (and it’s never safe to assume), Michigan State would play either Louisville — a team it lost to in November — or Big Ten foe Minnesota in the Round of 32. Still, the Spartans are superior to both teams and should reach Washington, DC. Once there, a win over #3 LSU or #6 Maryland (or Cinderella) would set up a highly-anticipated matchup with the Blue Devils. With Cassius Winston at the helm and forward Nick Ward back in the lineup, Michigan State has enough depth and physicality to hang with the Blue Devils for 40 minutes. Whether it’s enough to beat a trio of top-5 NBA Draft picks remains to be seen.

• Michigan, #2 seed, West Region. The Wolverines hung on to a #2 seed despite dropping five of their last 13 games, setting up a rematch with Montana, which they played in the First Round as well just last March. Like that contest, Michigan’s elite defense should have no problem shutting down the sharp-shooting Grizzlies. A Second Round date with #7 Nevada or #10 Florida — both inconsistent down the stretch — also poses little danger to last season’s National Runner-Up. A trip to Anaheim, however, would be a different story. Assuming #3 Texas Tech avoids another bizarre upset, Michigan would likely face the Red Raiders in a Sweet Sixteen matchup between the nation’s two stingiest defenses. Are the Wolverines capable of winning that game and knocking off #1 seed Gonzaga for another trip to the Final Four? Absolutely. But their up-and-down offense will have to start scoring more consistently for that to happen.

• Wisconsin, #5 seed, South Region. What are we to make of the Badgers? Always beloved by advanced metrics, Wisconsin finished the season ranked #12 overall in KenPom thanks to a rock-solid defense that led the Big Ten in efficiency during conference play. Not to mention Ethan Happ (17.1 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 4.6 APG), who ranked among the league’s best in nearly every statistical category known to man. One category not worthy of praise, of course, is free throw shooting (46.5% FT), which has proved to be Happ’s — and perhaps the team’s — kryptonite this season. That could be an issue against a red-hot Oregon team that has size, length, and fouls at a high rate. The #12 Ducks are good enough to beat Wisconsin and may well do so if they grab an early lead. If the Badgers can control the game flow, though, wins against both Oregon and an equally methodical, defensive-minded Kansas State team in the Round of 32 are also within the realm of possibility. For a team with only one consistent offensive threat, a fourth Sweet Sixteen berth in five seasons is probably Wisconsin’s ceiling.

There’s no way around it: The Big 12 had a down year, propelling fewer than seven teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 (five). Despite having a smaller presence than usual, the pressure will be on the league to have a team make a deep run — and all the better if that team is not Kansas. Compared to some of the other power conferences, the Big 12 may be light at the top, but the middle of the league is sufficiently meaty. Here are some quick thoughts on each team’s draw.

Texas Tech (#3 Midwest)

• Quick First Round Preview: Northern Kentucky is a spicy match-up for Texas Tech’s robust defense. The Norse move the ball extremely well, assisting on a higher percentage of all their shots than all but four teams in college basketball. Fortunately for the Red Raiders, Northern Kentucky’s defense isn’t much to write home about.
• Intriguing Potential Match-up: Buffalo in the Round of 32. The Bulls have repeatedly shown that they aren’t afraid of major conference powers and are loaded with experience. Texas Tech won a share of the Big 12 this season by loading up on transfers and having one freshman make a big enough leap to turn himself into a lottery pick. There are more than one ways to skin a cat, but what’s the best way?
• Final Word: It’s reassuring that last Thursday’s neutral court loss to West Virginia didn’t have a measurable effect on the Red Raiders’ seeding. Their region has the most manageable pair of top seeds (North Carolina and Kentucky), so I’ll be very curious to see if Chris Beard can deliver Lubbock its first Final Four.

Kansas (#4 Midwest)

• Quick First Round Preview: Northeastern is a small team that isn’t shy about firing away from deep and is a very good defensive rebounding team despite its relative lack of size. If the Huskies get hot from long range, anything can happen, but they struggled mightily in earlier losses to Syracuse and Virginia Tech. Kansas fans shouldn’t be too concerned about this game.
• Intriguing Potential Match-up: North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen. The Jayhawks have faced off against their previous coach multiple times over the last 10 years and could certainly be poised to do so again. From a match-up standpoint, however, a game with Auburn in the Round of 32 would be an interesting tilt. The Tigers, like Kansas, have experienced some head-scratching losses this season, but the their defense could cause problems for the inconsistent Jayhawks’ offense.
• Final Word: The Jayhawks got a massive break by being placed in the Midwest Region despite finishing third in the Big 12, a testament to the staff’s savvy non-conference scheduling. This team is so tough to peg that it’s challenging to see them winning enough to earn a trip back to Kansas City, much less winning there and advancing to consecutive Final Fours.

Kansas State (#4 South)

Here are some early reactions to each of the four Big East teams’ draws in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

#5 Marquette. Marquette is slotted in the dreaded #5/#12 match-up and will face media darling Murray State as a result. The Racers are led by a future NBA lottery pick in point guard Ja Morant, an exceptional athlete, ambidextrous finisher, and elite passer. The backcourt match-up between he and Markus Howard will be worth the price of admission, but also look out for Shaq Buchanan and his 13.0 PPG on the wing. The Golden Eagles have limped to the finish, losing five of six games, but Steve Wojciechowski‘s bevy of impressive shooters should keep them in the game.

#6 Villanova. Villanova has received high seeds since the formation of the new Big East six years ago, but this year will be a different situation for the Wildcats. Matched up against WCC automatic qualifier St. Mary’s, the Gaels have relatively strong metrics despite their #11 seed. They are an intriguing team — they lost to every decent opponent on their schedule with one exception — last week’s dominant performance against #1 Gonzaga. Villanova’s supporting cast will be key to how much longer Marchc continues for Jay Wright‘s club. Seniors Eric Paschall and Phil Booth are the known commodities, but the recent strong play of Jermaine Samuels and Saddiq Bey must continue for Villanova to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament.

Providence’s offense this season is among the worst in high-major basketball. In fact, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Northwestern and Stanford are the only high-major teams that are worse, per KenPom. If you are a team with postseason aspirations, you do not want to be associated with this group.

Poor shooting plays a role in the Friars’ offensive ineffectiveness, as they rank dead last in Big East play in both three-point and two-point shooting, and ninth in free throw shooting. Providence has multiple capable shooters on the roster, but all too often, their open looks do not fall. Their best shooter, AJ Reeves, is still not fully acclimated from a mid-season foot injury. The bigger concern, however, is point guard play. The trio of Makai Ashton-Langford, David Duke and Maliek White have, quite simply, not gotten the job done. They have been largely ineffective at creating offense for themselves, but more importantly, have not been able to create for others either.

As we head into Feast Week, and the with the Pac-12 continuing to take its lumps, a few items to ensure you’re keeping an eye on.

Brandon Randolph Has Been a Pleasant Surprise For Arizona (USA Today Images)

1. Arizona has impressed – I recognize that the Wildcats have only played teams in the KenPom >250 but their defense is currently the ninth-best (by raw efficiency) in the nation, a far cry from last season’s 102.8. The Wildcats have the steepest test ahead with a loaded Maui field awaiting next week.
2. Oregon being Oregon – The Ducks seemingly have an annual tendency to struggle early and improve late, and last night they stuck to that script. See Exhibit 2017 when they swiftly dropped games to Baylor and Georgetown before going on a casual 31-4 run and wound up in the Final Four. Is this team THAT good? Probably not. But come time for Pac-12 play, expect Oregon to be the dominant squad.
3. USC’s Kevin Porter will be a difference-maker – Yes, Nick Rackocevic has been a handful at 17 PPG, 15 RPG and 3 BPG. But considering the significance and impact of guards, not to mention the confusion a lefty creates, Porter has already demonstrated he’s going to be an absolute threat. The Trojans head to the NABC Hall of Fame Classic this weekend, so it would be a treat to see this group at full strength (reminder: Bennie Boatright is back).
4. Could Washington find its defense in Canada? The Huskies head to Vancouver for an inaugural tournament just north across the border. But the Dawgs to date have done little to impress, getting blown out in a true road game at Auburn (I suppose excusable) but then just squeaking by a game San Diego squad visiting Seattle.
5. Tempo – It’s notably up in the NBA and has been steadily increasing in college basketball over the past few seasons as well. Right now, however, the median tempo in college basketball is 71.5 possessions per game. Last year, that number would’ve ranked among the top 50. Keep in mind that pace usually slows down as we get into the meat of the season, but it’s an intriguing storyline to keep an eye on as a burgeoning trend.

RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish.

Three Key Takeaways.

Jevon Carter Will Take West Virginia as Far as He Can (USA Today Images)

1. West Virginia is a Football Team Masquerading as a Basketball Team. If you haven’t seen the Mountaineers up close, it is difficult to know just how physical they are both on and off the basketball. Carter, in particular, barrels into the lane like a wrecking ball, daring anyone to bounce off of him. That he has incredibly nice body control and touch around the rim only makes him tougher to defend. It also makes it difficult to determine just how good — meaning, at basketball — the Mountaineers actually are. Murray State had no chance to play through West Virginia’s physicality today, and it’s an open question whether another mid-major like Marshall (setting aside the rivalry component) will either.
2. The Mountaineers Go as Jevon Carter Goes. Carter was absolutely sublime today on both ends of the floor, and one defensive stance in particular crystallized it. Murray had been hanging around in the 8-12 point range for most of the game, and Carter had had enough. He decided to put the defensive clamps on Jonathan Stark out near the right hash mark. Bellying up to him in a perfect crouch, he tipped the ball away from the slighter guard, picked it up and headed downcourt. Seeing that he had a trailing Logan Routt coming, he dished to the big man for the resounding dunk. If there was any question about the game up to that point, it was effectively sealed on that play by Carter.
3. Murray State Will be Back. The Racers blew through the OVC this season to the tune of an 18-2 record that included a 13-game winning streak entering the NCAA Tournament. They ran into a bad matchup here in San Diego, but three starters and most of their returning minutes are expected back in Murray next season. Matt McMahon is just the latest rising star coach in a long series of them at this proud basketball school, from Mark Gottfried (Cal State Northridge), Mick Cronin (Cincinnati) to Billy Kennedy (Texas A&M) to Steve Prohm (Iowa State). The OVC has traditionally been a one-bid league, but the Racers have earned 12 league titles over the past 30 years. They will be back.

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What’s Trending is a column examining the week that was in college basketball social media. Matthew Eisenberg (@matteise) is your weekly host.

Stephen F. Austin rallied from a 13-point second-half deficit against Missouri last week to tie things up with a few minutes remaining. While the Lumberjacks ultimately fell short, they earned the respect of Missouri head coach Cuonzo Martin. The first-year coach took some time after the game to let Stephen F. Austin know just what he thought of its team…

It was a tough loss in Columbia, but Mizzou head coach @CuonzoMartin did something he had never done in his coaching career – enter an opponents locker room. @MizzouHoops, you’ve got the epitome of class leading you. Maybe we’ll see you in March. #AxeEm pic.twitter.com/86IOt2m9D9

— SFA Basketball (@SFA_MBB) December 20, 2017

Northwestern’s Charlie Hall, also as known as the son of actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus, scored his first career point in a game last week against Lewis. While the free throw will not be remembered by many, this picture after the game will go down as a legendary moment…

I’ll just leave this here pic.twitter.com/dAG9jssF5t

— Charlie Hall (@charlie_hall23) December 20, 2017

After Wofford beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill last week, you knew the locker room celebration would be worth seeing — and it certainly was…

https://twitter.com/WoffordTerriers/status/943700914795401217

Wofford‘s win against the Tar Heels was its second win over an ACC opponent this season, but this home-brewed tweet made some UNC fans feel better.

ACC Standings:
Wofford, 2-0
…
Duke, 0-1

— Rush the Court (@rushthecourt) December 21, 2017

The “What Just Happened” Award of 2017 goes to Colorado assistant coach Kim English on this wacky sequence that resulted in a technical foul against Colorado.

https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/944418908647301120

Colorado State’s Prentiss Nixon with the buzzer-beater to beat Long Beach State…

https://twitter.com/WatchStadium/status/944711164927254528

Is that Tim Miles or Santa Claus? Either way, Nebraska’s Tanner Borchardt was happy to be given the gift of a scholarship…

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/944656927300005888

RTC is providing coverage from start to finish of the NCAA Tournament for the next three weeks.

Is It Possible For UCLA to Impress and Disappoint in the Same Game? (USA Today Images)

Key Takeaways.

1. UCLA Will Go As Far as Its Offense Takes It. Note that the title to this blurb doesn’t say defense, which might be the conventional wisdom surrounding the Bruins. No, Steve Alford knows that his team’s defense isn’t going to magically become elite, capable of shutting teams down for long stretches at a time. Lonzo Ball and Aaron Holiday are his only two legitimately decent defenders, and it’s simply too late in the season to change what their teammates can do now. What this means is that if UCLA can continue to put huge numbers on the board — something it is eminently capable of doing, of course — the Bruins will have a very good chance at winning several more games. Kent State is not Kentucky, and certainly defensively-robust Cincinnati will provide a very stiff test on Sunday, but few teams in college basketball can as easily grab a defensive rebound, fire a 50-foot pass upcourt, and quickly convert on the other end. Over and over again. Their half-court game isn’t quite as polished, but it’s certainly effective as well. At the end of the day, UCLA didn’t seem to work very hard in putting together a 97-point, 62.7 percent shooting performance that corresponded to an absurd 1.39 points per possession tonight. So remember this distinction between winning through scoring and winning through defending as the Bruins move forward. They’re only going to win one way.
2. Lonzo Ball’s Impact. So much has been written about the precocious freshman’s impact that we’re not going to repeat the same things here, but this was the first time we’d seen him play live and the thing that was most striking about him wasn’t the odd release on his shot or his supernatural court vision. It was how he could seemingly go from fast with the ball to a veritable blur with it for extremely short durations — long enough to beat a defender or create just enough space to get to the rim. Bill Walton talked about this talent during last week’s Pac-12 Tournament, and because he doesn’t look like an elite-level athlete, it seems to come out of nowhere. Looks can be deceiving. Oh, and he had a nice all-around game, with 15 points, four rebounds and three assists to support a 158.0 Offensive Rating.
3. Kent State Challenged the Bruins. Kent State showed up in Sacramento and really only looked jittery for the first 10 minutes of the game. Once the Golden Flashes realized that they could actually score on the Bruins, they took it right at them — especially Jimmy Hall (20 points, 15 rebounds) inside. There were a few mini-runs that got Kent State back within a workable margin in the second half, but UCLA had an answer every time that happened. This relates to the first point above — if a team wants to beat UCLA, it’s going to have to be able to knock down shots No cold shooting nights. No missed layups and five-minute droughts. With this UCLA team, a five-point deficit becomes 15 very, very quickly. Kent State simply couldn’t keep up with the Bruins tonight, and nobody would blame the Golden Flashes for that. They acquitted themselves well here as the MAC champion.

Star of the Game. TJ Leaf, UCLA. Leaf put together a strong game of 23 points and six rebounds tonight in a game where there were once again several offensive stars for the Bruins. The wily freshman is one of the unsung heroes for UCLA this season, but he continues to show his value in working around the rim for easy run-stopping buckets.

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