***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Almost all of the action is on Saturday but what a day it will be. A couple of huge games start us off right away at noon but the rest of the day will not disappoint. It’s very unfortunate but #21 St. Mary’s @ #23 Vanderbilt is not on television and neither is Belmont at East Tennessee State on Sunday, a battle for first in the Atlantic Sun. You obviously won’t be able to watch those games unless you’re attending but definitely check and see how they play out. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#1 Ohio State @ #18 Illinois – 12 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

Sylvester and the Buckeyes Had the Last Laugh When Illinois Was #1 in 2005

It should be a crazy environment in Champaign on Saturday when the #1 team in the land pays a visit. Illinois is having a good year but probably not as good as some of the more optimistic Illini fans would have hoped. That can change in a big way with a marquee win over the Buckeyes. You’ll recall what happened almost six years ago in Columbus. Illinois was #1 at 29-0 on the last day of the regular season and lost on a Matt Sylvester three with five seconds to play as the unranked Buckeyes knocked off the eventual national runner up. By the way: Gus Johnson was working that one in 2005 and he’ll be in Champaign on Saturday if you even needed another reason to tune in.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

A Look Back

It’s hard to figure out exactly what’s going on in the Big Ten this season. Ohio State has risen to No. 1 in the country in both polls, but after that it’s tough to tell which team is next. Purdue stumbled on the road at West Virginia, giving the conference yet another black eye in the non-conference, and Illinois had a bit of dysfunction. Those things allowed an old standby, Michigan State, to once again rise to second with two close overtime wins at home. That just goes to show the tightrope act that is conference play this season.

• Team of the Week: Michigan State – The Spartans managed to pull off two dramatic comebacks on their home court in conference in the span of less than a week. Coming back to beat Wisconsin and Northwestern – both in overtime – helps put Tom Izzo’s team right back in the middle of the conference race and might help alleviate some of the concerns about this team playing close games in March.
• Player of the Week: Draymond Green, F, Michigan State: The big reason why Michigan State won both games last week is that Green stepped up, averaging 21.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. He also went 17-19 (89.4 percent) from the free throw line, which helped the team in the close ones.
• Newcomer of the Week: Aaron Craft, G, Ohio State: Craft also won the official Freshman of the Week award in the Big Ten and thus became the third Buckeye to win the award. Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas and Craft have swept the award this season. Craft won his after scoring 19 points to help Ohio State hold off Penn State.

Power Rankings

• 1. Ohio State (18-0, 5-0) – Behind a trio of Diaper Dandies, the Buckeyes have ascended to the top spot in the conference and the country. They’re playing good basketball, but hanging onto the top spot requires them going into Champaign and pulling out a victory. The play of the freshman has been impressive, but just as notable is how Thad Matta has gotten David Lighty and Jon Diebler to acquiesce to Deshaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger on offense and play important supporting roles.
• 2. Michigan State (12-5, 4-1) – See the Team of the Week and the Player of the Week sections for more on a very successful Big Ten week for the Spartans.
• 3. Wisconsin (13-4, 3-2) – Jon Leuer struggled as the Badgers lost at Michigan State, scoring just ten points on nine shots, but Wisconsin still had a chance to win. Jordan Taylor just needed to get a better look at the basket late. Leuer rebounded though to score 26 points on 16 shots against Illinois. Other player to watch is Keaton Nankivil. The 6’8 senior forward has scored in double figures each of his past five games.
• 4. Purdue (15-3, 4-1) –A poor shooting week from E’Twaun Moore doomed Purdue on the road. He shot 6-18 at West Virginia and scored 14 points and went 2-14 for five points against Minnesota. What has to be more concerning for Matt Painter though was the defense that allowed the Gophers to shoot 52.9 percent from the field.
• 5. Illinois (13-5, 3-2) – Two losses have brought back the dysfunctional team chemistry that plagued the Fighting Illini last season. Freshman Jereme Richmond was held out of the loss to Wisconsin because of missed practice time. Mike Miller over at Beyond the Arc had a bit more to say about it here, though judging by a statement from Richmond on Monday, there shouldn’t be any lingering issues regarding his status.
• 6. Minnesota (14-4, 3-3) – Two wins got Minnesota back on track, but both were at home, and one was against Iowa. Let’s see if Tubby Smith’s team can go on the road and beat someone. No matter where they play, controlling the pace is going to be important. The Gophers haven’t played a game at a pace of more than 65 possessions since Big Ten play started. Last week, the game against Purdue was 70-67 in 58 possessions. On a night when Blake Hoffarber and Trevor Mbakwe both play well, the Gophers will look unstoppable. Hoffarber went off for 26 points against the Boilermakers, but was held to nine points on 2-10 shooting against the Hawkeyes. That’s when Mbakwe picked things up though with 16 points and 12 rebounds off the bench. It doesn’t appear that Mbakwe’s violation of a restraining order has slowed him down at all.
• 7. Penn State (10-7, 3-3) – The Nittany Lions are going through a brutal stretch of four games, but making the most of it. Wins over Michigan State and Illinois instantly boosted their at-large profile and made them a contender in the conference. It hasn’t all been Talor Battle either, the frontcourt of Jeff Brooks, Andrew Jones and David Jackson are forcing opponents to pay attention to them. Jones showed what happens if you don’t against the Illini with a game-winning put-back slam after four players went at Battle.
• 8. Northwestern (11-5, 2-4) – What might have been? Losing in overtime to Michigan State is a big blow to the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament hopes. Northwestern had a chance to win the game even though John Shurna scored just six points. Drew Crawford has been hot lately with 19 points at Iowa and 16 against the Spartans. Because of an extra game on Thursday against SIU-Edwardsville, Northwestern plays three games in six days this week. The Green Bay-Chicago NFC Championship game also upended the schedule and the Wildcats will play Wisconsin at 11:30 a.m. CT.
• 9. Indiana (10-8, 1-4) – Michigan figured out you have to guard Indiana in order to beat them. Jordan Hulls was a perfect 4-4 from the field, including 3-3 from beyond the arc, and scored 13 points and Verdell Jones III went 9-10 from the field and scored 24 points in the Hoosiers’ 80-61 victory over the Wolverines.
• 10. Michigan (11-7, 1-4) – The Wolverines exhibit all the signs of a young team. They play up for the good ones and down to the bad ones. Unfortunately the numbers suggest that the games against the good teams might just be the kids playing over their heads. It’s the defense that’s been the problem lately.
• 11. Iowa (7-10, 0-5) – The Hawkeyes are struggling to score points in Big Ten play. While Fran McCaffery has tried to spruce up the offense, Iowa still needs more talent. When Indiana comes to town on Sunday it might be the Hawkeyes’ best chance to steal a conference victory.

A Look Ahead (all times EST):

• 1/18 – Michigan State at Illinois, 7 p.m., ESPN
• 1/19 – Penn State at Purdue, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/22 – Ohio State at Illinois, 12:00 p.m., CBS
• 1/22 – Michigan State at Purdue, 9 p.m., ESPN
• 1/23 – Wisconsin at Northwestern, 12:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/23 – Indiana at Iowa, 3 p.m., Big Ten Network

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom

• You might be surprised to learn that Purdue still leads the conference in efficiency margin during Big Ten play. Of course that has a bit to do with scheduling. The Boilermakers have feasted on an easy schedule and have avoided Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois and Wisconsin during their first five games. Ohio State is second with Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up behind them. The Spartans are the second luckiest team in conference according to my count, with undefeated Ohio State being the first.
• Before Iowa’s loss at Minnesota, there wasn’t a single team in the Big Ten that was scoring less than a point per possession, but the Hawkeyes have dipped below that minimum standard of competency again. On the other hand, Purdue and Michigan State are both allowing less than a point per possession in conference play. The Spartans are winning in conference on the strength of their defense.
• Finally, the Bubble Battle between Penn State, Northwestern and Minnesota should be fascinating to watch all season. The Gophers did more than the other two during non-conference play, but the three of them have very similar efficiency margins in conference play.
• After next week, every team in the conference will have played one-third of its conference schedule and I’ll provide a full rundown with all the numbers and predictions moving forward.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Another action-packed weekend awaits grateful hoop fans as we’re about two months away from March Madness. Conference play is really heating up and races are beginning to take shape. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#23 Vanderbilt @ Tennessee – 12 pm Saturday on ESPN (***)

Often Overlooked, Ezeli Is A Workhorse For the Commodores.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Last night’s games didn’t disappoint as #1 Duke went down and a host of other competitive games made Wednesday a night to savor. The schedule is lighter tonight but a few important conference matchups are on tap. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#8 Purdue @ #21 Minnesota – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

Purdue Obviously Misses Hummel, But Johnson and the Boilermakers Have Proven They Can Hang Without Him

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor

Introduction

Happy New Year everyone! TWTW hopes that you all had a great and safe NYE and then had a better time recovering on your couch over the following couple of days with some college hoops on the flat screen. And TWTW won’t judge if your condition forced you to watch said games on mute — that’s just a casualty of the season.

What We Learned

Harrellson Is Most Valuable As a Glass Cleaner, But Has a Solid Stroke As Well

It looks like Kentucky is headed toward another 14-2 type run through the SEC this season, and a perfect 16-0 record in conference play isn’t out of the question. That statement isn’t as much based off of how the Wildcats are playing (though TWTW was very impressed with how UK dismantled Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center on New Year’s Eve) but it’s a reflection of just how putrid the rest of the conference seems at this point. The Wildcats are the only SEC team ranked in the AP Top 25. Tennessee’s reputation has dropped faster than Goldman Sachs’, going from a chic dark horse Final Four pick to a team on the bubble. Losses to Oakland, Charlotte and College of Charleston coupled with unimpressive wins over Belmont and Tennessee-Martin will do that to you. Now the Vols face Memphis in their last game before Bruce Pearl’s eight-game suspension. Cross Tennessee off your list of possible teams that could challenge Kentucky. That leaves us with Florida and Vanderbilt as Kentucky’s top competition. TWTW is not a fan of Florida, who recently lost to Jacksonville, so if we were to circle a possible first conference loss for Kentucky we’d have to choose Feb. 12 at Vanderbilt. That game is the last of a three-game stretch in which the Wildcats travel to Florida and host Tennessee. Vandy took Missouri down to the wire in an overtime loss on Dec. 4 and the Commodores beat North Carolina during the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Don’t be shocked if Vanderbilt hands Kentucky its first conference loss that night.

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

– Connecticut is facing a daunting week ahead, one that will give us a clearer picture as to whether their November ascendancy in Maui with wins over Wichita State, Michigan State and Kentucky was a blip on the radar screen rather than the emergence of a bona fide contender. The Huskies and their multitude of underclassmen will face Notre Dame and their roster full of fifth-year seniors tonight in South Bend before embarking on an equally-daunting true road game at Texas on Saturday. Connecticut will be underdogs in both contests and don’t necessarily need to win either game. What the goal should be for Jim Calhoun is twofold: stay competitive for 40 minutes and receive contributions from players not named Kemba Walker. If the Huskies can scratch and claw with Notre Dame and exploit their mediocre defense and follow that up with the same type of effort in Texas, the questions over whether Connecticut will have to rely on those Maui victories to propel them to an NCAA berth will be tempered. Calhoun also needs Alex Oriakhi to put his disappearing act in Pittsburgh behind him and contribute as he did against Michigan State and Kentucky when the 6’9 sophomore posted double-doubles of 15/17 and 18/11, respectively. Calhoun will especially need Oriakhi to stay out of foul trouble against the long and athletic Longhorns frontline of Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson. That Saturday duel in Austin is worth the price of admission to watch two of the top perimeter defenders in college basketball work their craft- Shabazz Napier likely gluing himself to fellow freshman Cory Joseph and Dogus Balbay chasing Walker.

A difficult two-game week for Calhoun's Huskies lies ahead

– Most expected Purdue to move down a few pegs with the loss of Robbie Hummel during preseason practice, but the Boilermakers have done a commendable job persevering through that demoralizing road block in their season and beginning the 2010-11 campaign at 13-1. JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore have been everything Matt Painter could have asked for out of his senior leaders and top players. Both have played a large bulk of Purdue’s minutes and are filling up the stat sheet in every way imaginable. Johnson’s ability to score with his back to the basket or facing his defender and his constant contributions defensively and on the boards makes him indispensable. Moore has been the go-to scorer, a crafty and smooth operator around screens who is now averaging over 20 PPG. The senior guard poured in 31/7/3 on 11-20 FG in the Big Ten opening win against Northwestern. Still, the real key to the Boilermakers success has been their true identity since the Hummel-led recruiting class arrived in West Lafayette four years ago- aggressive, physical, man-to-man defense. Some anticipated the defensive effort would slip with Chris Kramer departing. Truthfully, it has slipped, from third in efficiency to fourth in efficiency. If Painter can just receive scoring punch from one of his secondary players on any given night, whether Ryne Smith, Terone Johnson, Kelsey Barlow or a few other candidates do the honors, Purdue remains a top-ten team and Elite 8 threat.

– The story of the early part of conference play thus far has to be St. John’s. We discussed their triumphant win over Georgetown Monday night in ATB and in a separate post, and I want to look ahead at the daunting route the Johnnies have to navigate to remain atop the Big East. Starting with last night’s win, St. John’s does not play an unranked team the rest of January with two games on the docket against Notre Dame and clashes with Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville and Cincinnati. The Johnnies did schedule a quick Big East breather on January 30 with a non-conference visit from…#1 Duke. The Georgetown win, coupled with surprising road victories at West Virginia and Providence, is certainly getting this brutal stretch off on the right foot for Steve Lavin. But if St. John’s merely wants to tread water over the next three weeks, they’ll need to improve on a defensive efficiency that ranks ninth in the Big East and a team three-point percentage hovering around 32%. Lavin also needs his three primary weapons D.J. Kennedy, Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee, all of whom played 40 minutes against the Hoyas, to keep up their tremendous level of play. Luckily for Lavin, he has one of the most experienced teams in the nation at his disposal, a group of seniors that have navigated through these treacherous Big East waters in past seasons, albeit with minimal success. After their win over Georgetown, Lavin’s Red Storm are the talk of college basketball in and around the Big Apple. Survive this stretch and they’ll have lasting power in the Big East as a legitimate contender for a respectable NCAA bid.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

A Look Back

Conference play has finally started in the Big Ten and it came with some surprises – like Indiana losing at home to Penn State and Minnesota being 0-2, but mostly it’s business as usual here in the deepest conference in America.

Team of the Week: Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 2-0 in conference with a victory over Iowa in Iowa City and a win at home against Wisconsin. That’s good enough to get the award this week. Demetri McCamey leads his team against Northwestern on Thursday at home in an in-state rivalry game.

Player of the Week: E’Twaun Moore, G, Purdue.  Moore averaged 26.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in two wins for the Boilermakers last week. He started the game against Northwestern, shooting 5-6 from three-point range as Purdue built an early advantage.

Newcomer of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State.  Sullinger won the Big Ten’s official Freshman of the Week award for the seventh time this season by averaging 18.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game against overmatched Tennessee-Martin and Indiana front court players. His numbers will just keep getting better as Thad Matta is forced to play him more in Ohio State’s closer conference games.

Power Rankings

• 1. Ohio State (14-0, 1-0) – The Buckeye express continues to roll along. Early season slip-ups by Minnesota mean that Ohio State might not play a real tough conference game until January 22 against Illinois.
• 2. Purdue (13-1, 2-0) – The Boilermakers went to Ann Arbor and handled Michigan with ease to start conference play. Northwestern tried to give them a game, but E’Twaun Moore was just too much for the Wildcats to handle.
• 3. Michigan State (9-4, 1-0) – Big game for Michigan State on Monday night at Northwestern. Can Tom Izzo’s team turn it on in conference play? Friday’s victory over Minnesota sure was a good start.
• 4. Illinois (10-3, 2-0) – See the “Team of the Week” section above.
• 5. Wisconsin (11-3, 1-1) – Playing at Illinois is a tough second game of conference play, but the Badgers return home to the Kohl Center to take on Michigan this week for a bit of a breather.
• 6. Minnesota (11-3, 0-2) – No team in the country has a harder conference schedule to start out with games at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and then at Ohio State as the Golden Gophers’ first three Big Ten games. Thus Tubby Smith has to find a way to get a victory over a reeling Indiana on Tuesday.
• 7. Michigan (11-3, 1-1) – Don’t look now, but the Wolverines are starting to sneak into the NCAA bubble territory and are one of Joe Lunardi’s first four out. A murderous next three games at Wisconsin, home versus Kansas and Ohio State, gives Darius Morris and company three chances to get that marquee win the resume is currently lacking.
• 8. Northwestern (9-2, 0-1) – If Minnesota doesn’t have the hardest schedule to start conference play, than Northwestern probably does. The Wildcats started at Purdue – and lost – and now play Michigan State and at Illinois this week.
• 9. Penn State (8-5, 1-1) – Winning at Indiana boosts this team up a bit in the rankings.
• 10. Iowa (7-6, 0-1) – The Hawkeyes have to be looking at Northwestern’s trip to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on January 12 as the team’s next possible victory. Unfortunately, they go to Ohio State and Purdue comes to town before that game.
• 11. Indiana (9-6, 0-2) – The Hoosiers lost the battle for last place to Penn State in the first game of the season, 69-60.

A Look Ahead (all times EST)

While every game is big in conference play, here are the key match-ups to keep an eye on in the upcoming week. It also includes one special non-conference CBS Sunday afternoon treat.

• 1/3 – Michigan State at Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/5 – Michigan at Wisconsin, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/6 – Northwestern at Illinois, 9 p.m., ESPN2
• 1/9 – Minnesota at Ohio State, 2 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/9 – Kansas at Michigan, 4:30 p.m., CBS

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: While most Big Ten teams have only played one or two games there is in-conference efficiency margin data available! Here are some fun nuggets from the first few games.

• Best Offense: Ohio State – 1.308 points per possession
• Best Defense: Michigan State and Purdue – 0.969 points per possession
• Luckiest: Michigan – 0.57 games ahead of expected
• Unluckiest: Minnesota – 0.36 games behind expected

Ohio State and Purdue are currently at the top of the conference. With Northwestern and Indiana bringing up the rear. You can see more about these at Chicago College Basketball.

For the past two years we’ve taken a look at what NCAA basketball would be like if the powers that be decided to adopt the antediluvian BCS system. In 2009 it would have yielded a championship game between UNC and Louisville along with several other less desirable match-ups. In 2010 it would have led to a championship game between Kansas and Kentucky, which could have been an interesting match-up, but both teams showed severe flaws that led to their elimination well short of the final Monday night game in April.

This season we decided that we would expand things a bit by offering our RTC/BCS college basketball rankings using a formula similar to what they use to determine the BCS rankings in college football on a weekly basis. As the season progresses, you can see how certain teams rise from relative obscurity and into the BCS picture while other teams fall from prestigious BCS games down to what would be the equivalent of pre-New Year’s Day games. With conference play about to start we thought that this would be the ideal time to start looking at the potential match-ups.

We kept the same basic rules as we used in previous years:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. We are not including six computer rankings and dropping the highest and lowest like they do in the BCS because frankly we are not familiar with six reputable computer ranking systems. If you know of any other computer rankings leave a comment below and we might include them in the next installment of our rankings.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

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The Lede.  There were a good number of games across the college basketball landscape tonight, but few of them held much interest to the casual observer.  The most important aspect of tonight (and really, this week) is that some of the power conferences are gearing up.  We have a fundamental aversion to pre-New Years conference games, but the honchos tend to not listen to us, so we take the smattering of Big East, Big Ten and Pac-10 games dropping this week as yet another sign that the apocalypse is just around the bend and bearing down on us.

Al Nolen Meets the Wisconsin Defense (WSJ/C. Schreiner)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Wisconsin & Purdue — Still Pretty Good.  Tonight’s marquee games were both Big Ten battles, and notwithstanding the fact that it’s still 2010 and these games shouldn’t be happening so early, that won’t erase the fact that they did in fact occur and two teams that are always pretty good are still pretty good.  The bigger game was Minnesota visiting Wisconsin, and even though many of the news outlets looked at the rankings (#13 visiting #24) and subsequently called a Wisconsin eight-point win an “upset,” anyone reading this site knows better.  In fact, the Badgers were a heavy favorite in Vegas (eight points, a-ha!), and few teams go into the Kohl Center and defeat Bo Ryan.  Despite getting dominated on the boards (-13), Ryan’s team played just enough sticky possession-defense  and took the care of the ball (only two TOs) to stymie a Gopher attack that is as diversified as it has been in Tubby Smith’s era in Minneapolis.  Meanwhile, across Lake Michigan in Ann Arbor, Purdue rode its two all-Americans JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore to a nice road win over a surprising UM team in convincing fashion.  The dynamic duo went for 43/17 combined, and contributed as they always do to one of the nation’s most effective defenses in tandem.  Many people wrote off Purdue as a national title contender and Final Four threat when Robbie Hummel went down with a knee injury in October, including us, but the Boilermakers are playing such impressive defense right now that we could be convinced that Matt Painter’s team could make a run to Houston after all.  Mind you, we’re not talking about cutting down the nets, but if the Boilermakers can continue to get offensive production beyond Johnson and Moore — and several players have stepped up at various times as a third option — then with the right matchups, Purdue could still be a darkhorse F4 contender.  Matt Painter’s defense and his two seniors are that good.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Mike Montgomery, Really? The California coach earned his 600th career victory tonight against Hartford, which puts him in a group of seven active coaches to have done so.  Without a doubt, he would be the last one you’d think of — the top six are: 1) Mike Krzyzewski; 2) Jim Boeheim; 3) Jim Calhoun; 4) Bob Huggins; 5) Gary Williams; 6) Roy Williams.  Pretty selective company there, as all but Huggz has won a national title.
• 30 at the Cintas.  With tonight’s easy win over Albany, Xavier continued its second-longest homecourt winning streak in the nation to 30 games.  This is particularly amazing considering that, well, XU isn’t all that good this year.  The Musketeers have hosted six games at the Cintas Center so far this year, and already four of them have gone down to the last possession — a three-point win over Western Michigan, an overtime over IUPU-Fort Wayne, a triple-overtime win over Wofford and a two-point nailbiter over Butler.  The Muskies go for #31 on New Year’s Eve against Florida, a team with a definite upgrade in talent than most of the teams they’ve played so far this season.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Monday was a good night for Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh handed Connecticut its first loss and Penn State knocked off Indiana on the road. Conference play rolls on today with two key Big Ten matchups in the upper Midwest. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#11 Purdue @ Michigan – 2 pm on Big Ten Network (***)

Purdue Handled Michigan Last Season (Mich Daily/T. Sharman)

This Tuesday matinee is a great opportunity for Michigan to put itself back on the Big Ten map. The Wolverines are 9-2 against D1 competition and had a very close loss to a top five Syracuse squad. This game pits two guard heavy teams against one another, though Purdue has JaJuan Johnson in the paint. Michigan is vulnerable inside making Jordan Morgan and Evan Smotrycz important players for John Beilein this afternoon. They have to defend Johnson well but more importantly they must grab rebounds. Purdue is not a tremendous rebounding team and neither team shoots all that well so there are going to be plenty of chances for the Wolverines to pick up extra possessions. Michigan is #210 in offensive rebounding percentage and they’ll have to do a much better job than that in order to score inside. As was the case with his West Virginia teams, Beilein loves the three ball. Michigan launches an average of 24 treys per game but connects on just a third of them. Still, the three pointer is the great equalizer in college basketball and when you shoot that often, a lot of shots are going to go through the net. The problem for Michigan is that Purdue ranks #4 in the nation in three point defense and third in defensive efficiency. It’s going to be difficult for the Wolverines to score but Darius Morris will try to make things happen. Michigan’s dynamic guard is averaging 16 PPG and almost eight assists as well while shooting over 50% from the floor. He needs to have a good game and set the table for others like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak, a tremendous rebounder for his position and size. Hardaway is shooting just 30% from deep and must get going for Michigan to take the next step up and into the middle of the Big Ten pack. For Purdue, Matt Painter has hinted he’d like to go big but expect a lot of four guard sets with Lewis Jackson and E’Twaun Moore running the show. Outside of Johnson, Purdue’s bigs have averaged just over four PPG and six RPG in 25 minutes of play combined, clearly not getting it done. In order to win, Michigan has to shoot the ball well, control the boards and play solid defense. Beilein loves his 1-3-1 zone and it can work wonders against a team that doesn’t see it often. Expect him to use it in this game and adjust if Johnson does damage underneath the basket. Smotrycz is a key player because he can pull Johnson away from the basket, possessing the capability of knocking down a triple here and there. If the Wolverines can get Johnson into foul trouble early, they’ll have a great chance to pull the upset at home. Purdue is the better team but this should be a very close game today in Ann Arbor.

#13 Minnesota @ #14 Wisconsin – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

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