RTC Top 25: Week 16
Posted by zhayes9 on February 22nd, 2010It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll. The usual analysis after the jump…
It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll. The usual analysis after the jump…
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.
Last Four In: Dayton, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, UAB
Last Four Out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Next Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Wichita State, South Florida
Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Campbell, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Purdue, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, North Texas, Gonzaga, Utah State.
Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2).
Both Butler and Siena are setting themselves up to be bracket busters in a few weeks, but for one Saturday they will face each other at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The host Bulldogs have mowed through Horizon League play with a spotless 17-0 record and are on a 16-game winning streak overall. Their opposition in this made-for-TV event is Siena. The Saints scored a first round NCAA victory a year ago against Ohio State and are the class of the MAAC. A recent loss to Niagara, however, has left their NCAA at-large chances in some doubt if they don’t win their conference tournament. Butler is playing for a seed, while you’d have to figure that a Siena win in a tough road environment such as this would secure their place in the field of 65. Join us on RTC Live to analyze and discuss the action.
Hello everybody, welcome back to another thrilling edition of Boom Goes the Dynamite. If you haven’t noticed, we’re at the point of the season where every game has a little more intensity, a little more pressure, a little more edginess, as each team tries to attract the eye of the fickle Selection Committee. Whether in an attempt to lock up a high seed or simply to make the darn thing, the next three weeks will present ample opportunities for every team to make its case, for better or worse. As always, we’ll be right there with you throughout the day, checking in on the big games and others of varying importance. While today isn’t a blockbuster day in terms of key games, there are always going to be a good number at this time of year. Below are the ones we’ll be keeping an eye on…
11 AM: Siena @ #13 Butler on ESPN2 – RTC Live
12 PM: Florida @ Ole Miss on CBS
12 PM: Seton Hall @ #8 West Virginia on ESPN
12 PM: Morgan State @ Murray State on ESPNU
1 PM: Louisiana Tech @ Northeastern on ESPN2
1:30 PM: #22 Baylor @ Oklahoma State on ESPN360
2 PM: #17 Texas @ Texas Tech on ESPN
2 PM: Georgia Tech @ Maryland on ESPN360 – RTC Live
2 PM: Xavier @ Charlotte on CSS
4 PM: Illinois @ #4 Purdue on ESPN
4 PM: UTEP @ Tulsa on CBS CS – RTC Live
4 PM: Colorado @ #1 Kansas on ESPN360
6 PM: #2 Kentucky @ #19 Vanderbilt on ESPN
6 PM: #7 Kansas State @ Oklahoma on ESPNU
8 PM: Charleston @ George Mason on ESPN2
9 PM: UCLA @ Washington on ESPN
12 AM: Wichita State @ Utah State on ESPN2 – RTC Live
11:02: And we’re live with another BGTD. Interesting decision by ESPN to keep GameDay at 11 AM with the Siena-Butler game on ESPN2. We already have someone doing a RTC Live for the Siena-Butler game so we’ll focus more on GameDay than we otherwise would. Definitely check out our RTC Live of the game though.
11:07: The ESPN analysts are really going out on a limb saying the Big East Tournament will be the best of the conference tournament. Digger breaks with the group and goes with the Big Ten. Surprisingly Bobby Knight calls out the Big Ten saying the Big East would beat them head-to-head.
11:09: In another surprise, Jay Bilas goes against Coach K by saying that the conference tournaments effectively act as a huge NCAA Tournament and if you win you are into the real NCAA Tournament. Digger agrees with him while Hubert Davis attempts to make a ridiculous argument against the automatic bid saying it penalizes teams like Siena that dominate their conferences, but might choke in the conference tournament. Personally I think if you’re that good you can earn an at-large bid with your play throughout the season. Knight holds the coaching fraternity party line saying that he wants to expand the tournament. Translation: Nobody gets fired ever.
11:15: Just flipped over to ESPN2 where the announcers were comparing Gordon Hayward to Mike Dunleavy Jr. I’m not sure if they are talking about their games or the way they look. Where is the college basketball Spike Lee who will call out these announcers for comparing the two only because they are white guys who look fairly similar? For the record their games are pretty similar. Feel free to call me out in the comment section. . .
11:20: Knight wants “The Committee” to get an ex-coach on there (like him?) and the team’s last 18 games. I have no idea how he decided on 18. Why not 20? The other talking heads rip the RPI. Davis wants to take the strength of schedule component out of the RPI and wants to use an “eye test” to replace it. I’d like to see Professor Davis come up with a quantitative way to come up with the “eye test” score.
***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game
Siena @ #13 Butler – 11 am on ESPN 2 (****)
Butler Will Have Their Hands Full With Siena
ESPN picked a fantastic matchup for their Bracketbuster weekend. When Siena’s 14-game winning streak (tied for third in the country) came to an end last week against Niagara, Butler took their place as the hottest team in the country. Butler has the longest current winning streak at the nation at 16 games, and they have shown no signs of slowing down. They haven’t lost at Hinkle Fieldhouse this year, and are now ranked #13 in the country. Siena has four scorers averaging at least 13.6 points per game, but their offense will be severely limited by Butler’s style of play. The Bulldogs aren’t the best team in the country (#32 in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy) but they are able to slow the pace down enough that they have not given up 60 points in their last four games, and haven’t given up 70 points since a loss to Georgetown in early December. Both teams have struggled to come up with big wins this year, having lost to Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, Temple, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa. The difference is that all of Butler’s losses were by single digits and Siena’s last three losses were by at least 10 points. Butler has four double-digit scorers of their own, and if Siena’s #87 ranked defense fails to guard the Bulldogs, they won’t stand much of a chance because Butler doesn’t turn the ball over that often. This matchup should be highly entertaining, but considering Siena is coming off of a bad loss and Hinkle Fieldhouse is a tough place to play, the Bulldogs should push their winning streak on to the NCAA tournament.
Georgia Tech @ Maryland – 2 pm on ESPN 360 (**)
Both of these teams responded from tough losses recently, and have played like they can either run the table or lose several of their remaining games. These squads have been lingering just inside or outside the top 25 for a large part of the season, but with their recent losses they are not only fighting to get back in the polls, they are trying ensure a tournament bid as well. Joe Lunardi has both of these teams in the dance right now, but another loss for Georgia Tech would mean they will have lost half of their last 14 games. Although Maryland is one of the more balanced teams in the ACC, ranking in the top 20 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency, Georgia Tech has one of the best defenses in the country (#6 according to Ken Pomeroy) but one of the worst offenses (#81). In their last two losses, the Yellow Jackets failed to shoot 40% from the field, and have not show much consistency since their 11-2 start. They Yellow Jackets use a big lineup, as four of their top five scorers are forwards. Three of Maryland’s top four scorers are guards, and it could make for some interesting matchups as these teams have not faced each other yet this year. Given that the Yellow Jackets have lost six out of their last seven road games, look for Maryland to solidify their tournament status with a win in College Park.
John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.
Standings
Top Storylines
Team: Remaining League Games, Predicted Record
And a projected first round:
The 5-8 and 6-7 games in this scenario would be excellent. Valparaiso just held off a furious late-game charge from Loyola to force the Ramblers onto the road for the first playoff game. Also, because of Detroit’s fall from grace they’d now have to play at Milwaukee in the first round. That’s a big switch.
A Possession-Free World
I keep possession-free statistics for the entire Horizon League. Here are some superlatives at this moment in conference.
Another fun possession-free fact is that there are four teams bunched together now in the middle of the league. While Butler is the clear top dog, Wright State is number two, Detroit is number three (contrary to what their record says) and then there is a bunch. Milwaukee, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Valparaiso all get it done in different ways, but they’re essentially the same in terms of play in conference. Milwaukee plays a little more defense than the others, Valparaiso has a bit more explosive offense — but when you get down to it they all score about 0.1 points per possession more than their opponents in the league.
Finally, Bracket Busters is this weekend. My predictions for the 10 games.
Overall it looks like the Horizon League could go 7-3 in BracketBusters this weekend. It will be a lot of fun to watch – well at least what few games are available on tv. Butler is the only Horizon League team on national television this season.
John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.
Standings
Top Storylines
Going for perfection: Butler is 15-0 and has officially clinched the Horizon League regular season. This comes with two benefits. 1) The tournament will be played in Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, and 2) The Bulldogs will be one of two top seeds that receive a double-bye. The Bulldogs have a 66.5% chance of finishing the regular conference season undefeated. A game at home against Siena in the Bracket Busters could be fun.
Streaking Vikings: Cleveland State is the Horizon League’s second hottest team. The Vikings have won their last six Horizon League games. Now of course they have to play Butler on Saturday, but it’s been a very good run.
Chicago showdown: UIC and Loyola are near the bottom of the league standings, but it won’t stop their rivalry game on Saturday night from being a heated affair. The Ramblers went to the Pavilion and took down the Flames in the last match-up. Now they get a return game in Rogers Park.
The race for #2: As you can see there are now 6 teams that are holding out hope of making the #2 spot in the conference standings and earning a double-bye opposite Butler. Here’s my best guess at their chances from what I’ve seen this season:
Team: Remaining Games, Predicted Record
Of course the Horizon League is almost impossible to predict, so who knows if this is actually how it would play out. But if it did the first round would be:
The other race in the conference, besides that race for second place, is the race for fifth. Avoiding that 6-7 game would be a good idea for any team that wants to keep playing past the first round. It is going to be a very difficult game combining two teams that will be frustrated to be in that position. After Detroit’s home loss to Green Bay on Thursday, the Titans appeared to be headed towards that game.
Why Can’t Detroit Win the Close Ones?: Detroit is now 7-7 in the Horizon League. The Titans’ seven losses are by a combined 21 points. Yes, they’re losing their games by an average of three points per game in conference (and that includes both Butler games). Detroit also has close losses to Tennessee State and DePaul out of conference. Why can’t the Titans break out and win a close one? They survived against UIC at home on January 30th for their only victory by five points or fewer this season. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues to haunt Detroit down the stretch and ultimately doom their chances of making some noise in the conference tournament. The ironic thing is that Detroit might be the team best equipped to knock Butler off. The Titans have a big frontline that has resulted in a 2-point overtime loss at home and a 5-point road loss to the Bulldogs this season.
Player of the Year Race: It’s Gordon Hayward of Butler and no one else is particularly close. He’s fourth in the league in scoring and rebounding, but that doesn’t begin to describe his value to the Bulldogs. He just seems to have a knack for making the big play exactly when Butler needs it. It’s worth noting though that he’s scored fewer than 10 points in four conference games. Of course he also scored 22 points and grabbed 17 boards as the Bulldogs officially captured the league regular season title against Youngstown State on Thursday.
WCC Dominance. #11 Gonzaga 80, St. Mary’s 61. It was billed the Game of the Year on the west coast (keep the snickering to a minimum), but like so many of the others before it, the end result was the same with Gonzaga knocking off its top rival St. Mary’s tonight. The Zags used a devastating early second-half 16-3 run to break a tight game wide open, and the sense for those of us watching at home was one of vague familiarity. Elias Harris followed up his dunking exhibition from a month ago with a 19/4 night before ultimately fouling out, and Matt Bouldin had 18/5/4 assts in yet another WCC statement win for Gonzaga. Just as in the last game in Moraga, the Zags scorched the nets with a 54% shooting night (57% last month), calling into question the ability of the SMC defenders to stay in front of the more athletic Zags. With the win, GU effectively opens up a two-game lead over its closest competitor using the tiebreaker, and they’re now all but assured to get their tenth straight WCC regular season title in the next few weeks of action. SMC at 21-4 (8-2) is an interesting case for the NCAA Tournament committee right now. They have four ‘quality’ losses (Vanderbilt, USC, Gonzaga twice), but their only really good win was one over Utah State in Logan in December. Their RPI is in the mid-40s, and the last four regular season games probably aren’t going to change that position much. In our eyes the Gaels will need to win all four games to go to 25-4 and have another nice run in the WCC Tournament to ensure a bid this year.
Couldn't Have Said It Any Better (credit: Dan Pelle)
Speaking of Dominance. #15 Butler 68, Youngstown State 57. With this win tonight, Butler’s fourteenth in a row, the Bulldogs clinched their fourth consecutive Horizon League regular season title with three games left in the race. Gordon Hayward was awesome tonight, going for 22/17 in a game that was closer for much of the contest than the final score indicated. Yet, Butler continued to show why they’re a cut above the rest of this league, overcoming an early eight-point deficit to take control in the second half and move to 15-0 in the conference. We’re still a week out from the BracketBuster matchups, but if Butler can win its next two and Siena do likewise, then we’ll have the two teams with the longest current winning streaks in America facing each other in that game.
A Little Upsetting.
Pardon the baseball reference, but we know that if a guy’s throwing a no-hitter you’re not supposed to talk to him about it. In fact, you’re supposed to just stay away from him, let him sit in the dugout alone, and act like nothing special is happening. We don’t go for such superstitions around here, so let’s check out the teams that are currently undefeated in their conferences, and who has the best chance to actually pull off a perfect conference campaign.
Last season, there were only two teams that streaked through their conference schedules without a blemish — Memphis went 16-0 in the CUSA, and Gonzaga tallied a perfect 14-0 in the WCC. Memphis kept it going three games into this conference season, but back on January 20th UTEP showed the Tigers that they were having none of that, and snapped Memphis’ conference winning streak at 64 games. The Zags stumbled ten days later at San Francisco after winning their first six WCC games this season.
Can Aldrich, Collins, and the rest of the Jayhawks run the conference table?
Right now (before Thursday night’s games), there are no less than eight teams with perfect conference records. We list them here along with the next time they’ll put it on the line, and our prediction as to when they’ll drop their first conference game — if at all:
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…
Atlantic 10
(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).
Locks: Temple.
Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.
Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)– Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.
Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)– The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.
Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)– The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.
ACC
Locks: Duke.
Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)– Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.
Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.
Derrick Favors is the x-factor in Georgia Tech's quest for a high seedFlorida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)– After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.
Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)– At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.
Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)– A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)– Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.
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