***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Tonight you’ll catch three really good games (including two heavyweight Big 12/Big Ten clashes) if you sit down, relax, and watch ESPN2 all night. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#25 Texas @ #12 Michigan State – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

Like It or Not, Izzo and the Spartans Need This One

It’s always fun when two name-brand programs go at it and this one is no exception. This is a big game for both teams but especially so for the homestanding Spartans. A loss here would drop Michigan State to 7-4 against D1 competition and once again ignite the questions about this team’s ability over the long haul, regardless of Tom Izzo’s history. Speaking of Mr. Izzo, he’s back after serving a one-game suspension for employing someone connected to a recruit at his basketball camp. Sparty had no problems against Prairie View A&M but Texas poses a stern test for State. The Longhorns look like a better team this year, playing with good chemistry and stronger defense. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency with Texas in the top three in defensive effective field goal percentage. Rick Barnes has a cohesive unit this year that can score as well. With Jordan Hamilton draining threes and Cory Joseph taking over at the point, Texas may just be starting to hit their stride. The key matchups in this ballgame are Hamilton against Durrell Summers and Joseph versus Korie Lucious. When he’s on, Summers can match Hamilton shot for shot. Izzo has moved Lucious to the point many times while shifting Kalin Lucas off the ball. It is essential that each point guard control the ball and get others involved, plus we’re curious to see how the freshman Joseph reacts to the intense environment of the Breslin Center. Each team is deep and talented so the point guards cannot expect to be the stars of the show. The problem for Michigan State all season has been turnovers, something Texas will be eager to force. The Longhorns are deadly when they get out in transition and Michigan State just can’t afford another game chock full of giveaways. Pay attention to the three point line tonight. Michigan State is a very good three-point shooting team, the least we’d expect from what Izzo called a “pretty-boy jump shooting team” after their loss to Syracuse. However, Texas is very good at defending the arc and even better inside it, ranked seventh in two-point defense. The Spartans have three legitimate deep threats and will look to put Texas on notice early and often. On the other end, Michigan State is not good at defending the three. That’s a potentially lethal situation when you have a gunner like Hamilton on the other side. This would seem to be a great time for Michigan State to turn the corner and re-establish itself as a contender with a convincing win over a solid Texas team. We see this game as a closer contest however and Texas can put themselves on the map for good this year with a strong road win. Michigan State is the favorite at home and we’ll take the Spartans by single digits.

#10 Missouri vs. #21 Illinois (in St. Louis) – 9 pm on ESPN2 (****)

The annual Braggin’ Rights game between these two border state rivals is always a must-watch, especially when the teams are good as they are this season. Plus, don’t you love seeing that dividing line right in the middle of the arena separating black and gold from orange? Each team is in the top 25 for the first time in seven years but both programs are dealing with a bit of adversity. The Illini are coming off a brutal loss to Illinois-Chicago while Missouri lost freshman Phil Pressey to a broken hand and will welcome Michael Dixon back from suspension in his place. The story of this game will be pace, essentially who establishes their style of play. Everyone knows Missouri loves to get out and run but Illinois can control this game by protecting the ball against the aggressive Mizzou defense, running efficient half court sets and playing to their strength, defense. Ranked #18 in efficiency, the Illini defense needs to always have a man between Missouri and the basket to stop the ball, otherwise the Tigers will carve them up in both the half court and in transition. Illinois will have success if they force Missouri to play half court offense, taking time off the shot clock and limiting possessions. The most important player in this game is Demetri McCamey. The Illinois senior runs their offense and can shoot the lights out from three. He has to take advantage of Missouri jumping the passing lanes and make good passes to his teammates leading to open looks. Bruce Weber’s team has to take advantage of the mismatch on the perimeter when they have the ball. Illinois ranks #19 in three point shooting while the Tigers are #215 in defending the trey. Meanwhile, Missouri can exploit a weak spot in the Illinois defense inside with Ricardo Ratliffe. Illinois’ interior defense is ranked #118 and the Missouri big man should be able to get Mike Tisdale and/or Mike Davis into foul trouble. Missouri has a bunch of scorers on its roster but, remarkably, they don’t get to the foul line often. Illinois is even worse when it comes to free throw rate but they may get there more often against the foul-prone Tigers. Expect a very close game between two fierce rivals with the outcome in doubt late into the second half. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a determined and focused Illinois team rebound from the UIC loss by knocking off Missouri this evening.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

• Until the shock of the week in college basketball on Saturday, Illinois’ 57-54 loss to UIC, not much happened during Big Ten play. Finals kept most teams quiet and the ones that did play mostly scored easy non-conference victories. But now, conference play is just moments away, and don’t we all wish it would just start already.
• Team of the Week: Ohio State: This award was handed to the Buckeyes because they beat South Carolina, which was probably the best win in a middling week for the conference.
• Player of the Week: John Shurna, F, Northwestern: In two games, against Long Island and American, Shurna averaged 27 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game. He shot 19-25 (76%) from the field for the week.
• Newcomer of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State: Sullinger scored 30 points and grabbed 19 rebounds in the victory over South Carolina. He also had 11 points and two steals against Florida Gulf Coast.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (10-0) – The Buckeyes dominated South Carolina to continue their stranglehold on the top of the power rankings. Sullinger was dominant again. Maybe Keith Benson and Oakland can make him work a little harder this week. Fun fact, recently tweeted by John Gasaway, the Buckeyes’ Dallas Lauderdale is blocking almost one in every five two-point attempts by opponents when he’s on the court.
2. Wisconsin (9-2) – The Badgers topped Green Bay to finish a sweep of the state of Wisconsin and is now in the midst of a 10-day layoff.
3. Purdue (10-1) – The Boilermakers beat the Indiana State Syrcamores, which elicits nothing more than a bunch of shrugs.
4. Michigan State (8-3) – The Spartans beat Prairie View A&M last week, but this week, they play one of the most interesting Big Ten games of the week as Texas comes to visit. Tom Izzo’s one-game suspension will hardly be a footnote in his career.
5. Minnesota (10-1) – The Golden Gophers beat Akron. Yeah!
6. Illinois (10-2) – Bruce Weber was hoping to have a Top 10 team by Christmas. Now, with the loss to UIC and a tough game coming up against Missouri, I think he’d be happy to be in the Top 25 come next Monday.
7. Northwestern (8-0) – Two relatively easy wins over relatively inferior competition don’t impress anyone, especially at home. The Wildcats have a chance to at least creep onto the national radar if they can win the MSG Holiday Festival this week. After blowing out St. Francis (NY) on Monday, they’re off to a nice start
8. Michigan (9-2) – The numbers are starting to look very good for Michigan. The Wolverines are up to #52 overall in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings after a very good 18-point win over Oakland and a rout of North Carolina Central. My guess is Bryant isn’t going to give them any trouble this week either.
9. Indiana (9-2) – Indiana needs a good win over Northern Iowa this week to prove they’re for real and then will get a chance to play either New Mexico or Colorado. If it’s the Lobos, it’ll be a great test for the Hoosiers. Then Tom Crean gets four days to work the remaining kinks out before the first conference game of the season versus Penn State.
10. Penn State (7-3) – The Nittany Lions were idle, and take on Maine before they go to Bloomington.
11. Iowa (6-5) – The Hawkeyes got a good win in beating Drake by seven. Now they have to hold serve against Louisiana Tech on Tuesday.

A Look Ahead (all times EST):

• 12/21 – Northwestern vs. St. John’s or Davidson at MSG Holiday Festival; 7 or 9:30 p.m., MSG
• 12/22 – Michigan St. vs. Texas, 7 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/22 – Indiana vs. Northern Iowa at Las Vegas, Nevada; 7:30 p.m., CBS College Sports
• 12/22 – Illinois vs. Missouri at St. Louis, Missouri; 9 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/23 – Ohio State vs. Oakland, 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/23 – Indiana vs. New Mexico/Colorado at Las Vegas, Nevada; 7:30 or 10 p.m., CBS College Sports
• 12/27 – Indiana vs. Penn State, 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: Four Big Ten teams currently rank between 50 and 54 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. New Mexico must really wonder what the heck they did to get mixed up with the rest of those guys.

The Lede. A Leader Who Happens To Coach Basketball. If you can’t stand Duke and/or Coach K you might want to stay off the Internet for a while because you are going to be hearing about them a lot over the next few months. While the Blue Devils picked up their 19th straight win and 27th in 28 games, this game will be remembered (particularly by those in The Bluegrass State) as the game where Coach K surpassed Adolph Rupp on the all-time Division I wins list. In Duke’s first game without Kyrie Irving, who could be out indefinitely with a toe injury, the Blue Devils relied on their superior athleticism, depth, and execution to crush a respectable Bradley team, 83-48. The Braves’ four losses this season coming in were by a combined 22 points, but they weren’t that fortunate tonight as the Blue Devils blew them out by 35 points. Playing in place of Irving, Andre Dawkins was more than adequate as he scored 28 points including 8 of 14 from beyond the arc. Duke may not be the same dynamic team without Irving, but they are still really, really good. As for Coach K, now that he has passed Rupp for third he only has two more coaches ahead of him (Dean Smith at 879 and Bobby Knight at 902). We don’t think we need to tell you about the type of hysteria that you will see when he approaches those two living legends in the coming weeks and months.

Your Watercooler Moment. Playing with a women’s ball in Illinois. Coach K might have dominated the mainstream college basketball media’s attention tonight, but the Twitter-verse was dominated by the strange situation in Illinois where the Fighting Illini and Oakland Golden Grizzlies played the first seven minutes of their game with a women’s basketball before Mike Tisdale noticed that something felt wrong and pointed it out to the official who switched the ball. Having dealt with that the Fighting Illini rallied from down nine early to defeat a tough Golden Grizzlies team by a score of 74-63. Although we would like to be able to attribute the Golden Grizzlies early success to playing with a women’s ball (they outscored Illinois 15-6 while playing with the women’s ball and were outscored 68-48 with the men’s basketball) that would be selling their effort short as they led the #16 team in the country until there were 15 minutes left in the game.  Demetri McCamey scored nine points in 62 seconds to give Bruce Weber’s squad a quick seven-point lead, which they never relinquished after that point.

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Steve Fisher’s Quips.  His team is now 9-0 after defeating California tonight, but the longtime coach of the San Diego State Aztecs thinks that his home folks might be going a little overboard with their support and faith of the team.  As he put it, “they think we can play the Celtics… and if Kevin Garnett didn’t play, they think we’d have a chance.”  In this clip, he also talks about how big of a deal it is for his squad to defeat a Pac-10 opponent on their own floor, as it hasn’t happened for a very long time (the answer: SDSU last did it in 1982 vs. Oregon in Eugene, well before Fisher could even spell Fab Five).

• Glens Falls, New York.  Seemingly an entire town came out to watch its prodigal son, Jimmer Fredette, return to play basketball.  The star guard scored 26 points in variety of ways to thrill the beyond-capacity home crowd at the Glens Falls Civic Center tonight.  Take a read through Tae Andrews’ RTC Live at the arena tonight — people were sitting or standing in every available space in this building.  We love to see support like that — more teams should do this sort of thing for the local HS heroes that move on.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

The Big Ten went out and got the necessary victories to win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge 6-5 for the second season in a row. While Minnesota almost screwed things up by losing to Virginia, Purdue winning in overtime over Virginia Tech and Michigan upsetting Clemson on the road bailed out the Gophers. Also, Michigan State acquitted itself well against Duke, making the power rankings even more of a jumble.

Team of the Week

Illinois – The Fighting Illini got two good victories this week over North Carolina and Gonzaga. Both teams are talented, but Bruce Weber got his team prepared for the young Tar Heels team and then got them back up for a game in Spokane with the Bulldogs. Illinois started bombing threes in the game against Gonzaga (12-23 from three-point range), which probably has future opponents a bit worried.

Player of the Week

John Leuer, F, Wisconsin – Sometimes, Leuer’s stats don’t look so great because he plays for Bo Ryan, but this week, they were off the charts no matter how you measure them. The 6’10 senior forward had 22 points and 11 boards in a blowout of North Carolina State and then added 29 points, including 6-11 from three-point range, and nine boards against South Dakota.

Newcomer of the Week

Tim Hardaway, Jr., G, Michigan – Hardaway scored 15 points, including 7-9 from the free throw line, in Michigan’s road upset over Clemson. He then followed it up with a 1-7 shooting, three-point performance against Harvard, So he’s still got quite a bit to learn. For the season, he’s averaging 10.7 points per game.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (6-0) – Another week, another victory. This time, it was a 58-44 win at Florida State. There’s not much left to challenge the Buckeyes on the non-conference slate; A home game against South Carolina on December 18 is the toughest one left before Big Ten play begins.
2. Illinois (8-1) – See the Team of the Week section. Mike Davis had two good games in the victories with 20 points and 10 boards against North Carolina and 10 points and six boards against Gonzaga.
3. Michigan State (6-2) – Give credit to the Spartans for hanging with Duke in an 84-79 loss. It was a “good” loss if there ever was one. Tom Izzo’s team then went out and shellacked Bowling Green, for whatever that’s worth. Draymond Green had two solid games with 16 points, six boards, three steals and three blocks against the Blue Devils and then 10 points and 12 boards against the Falcons.
4. Wisconsin (6-2) – Bo Ryan’s team delivered an absolute shellacking to North Carolina State in the challenge, 87-48. Now a more experienced Marquette team is waiting at the Bradley Center as the Badgers begin the Wisconsin part of their schedule.
5. Purdue (7-1) – The Boilermakers got some rough news when they found out that John Hart is going to be out for a month with an injured foot. The sophomore guard was averaging 8.4 points per game this season, third best on the team. The team has played stifling defense thus far this season, including locking down the perimeter. Opponents are shooting just 25 percent from beyond the arc, which will be very helpful in conference play.
6. Minnesota (7-1) – Al Nolen was missing for the week as the Golden Gophers went 1-1 overall, including a surprising loss to Virginia in the challenge and an escape against Cornell. He’ll probably miss another week at least, so Tubby Smith needs to find a way around the problem. Trevor Mbakwe had one the oddest double-doubles you’ll ever see against Cornell, with 12 points and 16 boards. Why is that so weird? All 12 points came from the free throw line as he shot 12-20 from the charity stripe and 0-3 from the field.
7. Northwestern (5-0) – The Wildcats shot the lights out in the first half against Georgia Tech and had everyone raving about the NCAA Tournament. Since then, Northwestern hasn’t played a game. Bill Carmody’s squad doesn’t play again until Monday, December 13, against Long Island.
8. Indiana (7-1) – The Hoosiers are ranked 60th overall in Ken Pomeroy, but after losing to Boston College on the road by 12, they sort of look like paper tigers. Tom Crean’s team has built up a nice record against really soft competition. Indiana gets another test on Saturday when it takes on Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
9. Michigan (5-2) – The Wolverines pulled off the surprise of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge by winning at Clemson, 69-61. Michigan then came back to Ann Arbor and survived an upset bid by former head coach Tommy Amaker’s Harvard squad 65-62. It’s possible that John Beilein’s team might be better than people thought coming into the season. Sophomore Darius Morris is one of the top five point guards in the league. He’s averaging 13.7 points and 6.9 assists per game this season.
10. Penn State (6-2) – Once thought to be an NCAA Tournament bubble team, the Nittany Lions are looking more like an also-ran. Maryland went to University Park and rocked Penn State, holding them to just 39 points. Talor Battle scored 31 points to make sure the Nittany Lions didn’t lose to Duquesne. They get another chance to prove they’re legit with a game at Virginia Tech on Sunday.
11. Iowa (4-4) – Iowa actually plays two of the more interesting games this week. Tuesday, the Hawkeyes take on last season’s NCAA Tournament darlings, Northern Iowa, and then on Friday, Iowa State comes to visit.

A Look Ahead (all times EST)

• 12/7 – Michigan State vs. Syracuse, Jimmy V. Classic from Madison Square Garden, 9 p.m., ESPN
• 12/7 – Purdue at Valparaiso, 9 p.m., ESPNU
• 12/7 – Iowa vs. Northern Iowa, 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/8 – Illinois vs. Oakland, 8 p.m.
• 12/8 – Minnesota at St. Joseph’s (PA), 7 p.m.
• 12/10 – Michigan vs. Utah, 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/10 – Iowa vs. Iowa State, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/11 – Wisconsin at Marquette, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/11 – Indiana at Kentucky, 5:15 p.m., ESPN
• 12/12 – Penn State at Virginia Tech, 1 p.m.

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: Conference play is just a few weeks away, but Ken Pomeroy’s numbers are already singing the praises of the Big Ten. The conference has five of the Top 20 teams overall, five of the Top 20 offenses and five of the Top 20 defenses. Most of those are the Top 5 teams in the Power Rankings, but Northwestern has the #11 offense in the country.

The Lede.  Thankfully We Decide Our Champions on the Court.  And we don’t use awful naming conventions when doing it.  Imagine if the First Four was actually called the Toys “R” Us First Four, or the Final Four became the Batesville Casket Company Final Four?  That’s essentially what we’re looking at with some of these absurd bowl names — our favorites: the Beef “O” Brady Bowl and the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.  Maybe the two bowls should morph together and then they’d have the whole eating thing figured out.  On to more serious issues, though.  For seemingly the fourteenth consecutive year, the BCS national title game featuring Auburn and Oregon is not without controversy, as there are three unbeaten teams left standing with only two spots available.  Perhaps you’re of the opinion that a school like TCU (12-0), with its weak schedule and lack of gridiron pedigree, is not worthy of playing in that sports’ marquee event.  To this we say: neither was Butler.  Yet somehow the small college from the north side of Indianapolis that didn’t belong there found itself capable of beating two of basketball’s best coaches (Jim Boeheim and Tom Izzo) and come within a hair of beating its best (Mike Krzyzewski).  It’s an absurd system that if used in basketball would guarantee that Duke would have won at least ten “mythical” national titles in the last twenty years, while robbing us of the magic of schools like George Mason and Butler along the way.  Critics of the system correctly point out that FBS college football is the only NCAA sport that does not have a playoff system to determine its champion, but it’s also the only American sport that becomes less interesting as the season progresses.  The single most exciting time is kickoff weekend, when anything seems possible.  Enjoy your BBVA Compass Bowl featuring a 2-6 SEC team, folks — we’ll be over here watching games that actually build up to something.

This Weekend’s Marquee Games.  For additional analysis on the major games from Saturday check out our Instant Analyses from Saturday (part 1, part 2, part 3).

Zeller Was Great Against UK on Saturday (AP/G. Broome)

• Over 4,000 Wins in Chapel Hill. But it was the embattled Tar Heels of North Carolina who added win #2009 on this day, as Tyler Zeller reminded us how good he can be when he asserts himself (27/11/5 blks).  In a wrinkle we’ve never seen before, Zeller fouled out the entire Kentucky frontline with his play inside; his length (along with teammate John Henson’s) frustrated UK star forward Terrence Jones for the first time all season (3-17 FG for nine points).  The Carolina guard play still left something to be desired, shooting 6-24 from the field and totaling 21 points, but this is a known commodity — Carolina’s rise and fall this season will generally rest on how well their big men play each night out.  We came away from this game thinking that we were viewing two flawed teams — Kentucky on the inside, and UNC on the perimeter — but that Kentucky, despite losing the game, has the greater upside.
• National Title Rematch. Butler proved for more than a half that it wasn’t going to quietly skulk away into the night after its run to the national championship game and a shaky start to this season.  As our correspondent Matt Patton wrote from the game: “First off, Butler can play: people have been down on the Bulldogs after they were blown out by Louisville and upset by Evansville, but they showed that they still have some star power and one of the smartest coaches in the game in Brad Stevens.  I thought Stevens really kept Duke on their heels the first half, giving the Blue Devils fits with a triangle and two zone and expertly controlling the tempo during the first half.  Butler also showcased some impressive depth, outscoring Duke’s talented bench 33-13 (a large amount of that credit goes to Shawn Vanzant, who had a spectacular second half).  If the Bulldogs take care of the ball like they did today and keep their stars on the court (i.e. minimize fouls and injuries), they can still surprise some people come March.”  We don’t disagree at all.  Butler isn’t a top ten team, but they will always play legitimate defense, and once they get their sea legs under them, nobody will want to face the Bulldogs (again) next Spring.
• Battle of Seattle.  We haven’t been as high as many others have been on Gonzaga this year, and any injury to Elias Harris notwithstanding, the reason was fully on display Saturday in the Battle of Seattle game against Illinois: the Zags don’t defend.  Illinois has never traditionally been a high-octane offense under Bruce Weber, but against a Gonzaga defense that would rather reach than move, Illinois repeatedly picked Mark Few’s team apart for wide-open threes (12-23) and dunks.  Giving up twelve treys is a problem against any team, and this is the second time this season that the Zags have done so in a loss (Kansas State was the other).  This definitely appears to be Weber’s best Illini squad since the 2005 national runner-up, and it helps in that Illinois has six players capable of putting up double figures any given night.  The maturation of Brandon Paul in particular from a gunner incapable of taking a good shot in the flow of the offense (33% last year) to a disciplined shooter (52% this year) has been a pleasure to watch.  This Illinois team is capable of big things this year.

SoCal Upsets. The most surprising upsets of the weekend came at the very end of it, as the two biggest Los Angeles programs made news in one way or another.  First, UCLA, coming off a loss against top-five Kansas on Thursday night that universally slammed the officials for bailing the Jayhawks out, must have still been feeling the effects.  They allowed Montana (without Anthony Johnson, mind you) to come into Pauley Pavilion and shoot 52% in a 66-57 victory that must have UCLA fans scratching their heads perplexed.  The two stars of the Kansas game, Tyler Honeycutt and Joshua Smith, combined for 4-20 shooting and 15 total points.  Meanwhile, on the other side of town, USC, a team who had already racked up bad losses against Rider, Bradley, TCU and Nebraska, managed to completely flummox the young Texas Longhorns for an easy 73-56 victory.  If you saw either one of these results coming, then you’re well beyond the scope of this site.  Unbelievable.

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor.

Introduction

LeBron James’ big return to Cleveland on Thursday night got TWTW thinking if something similar could ever happen in the college hoops world. Now obviously it would be tough/impossible to create the exact same circumstances surrounding James’ seven-year tenure in Cleveland, his love affair with the city and their subsequent breakup on national TV this past summer. First we’d have to end the NCAA’s policy that forces transfer players to sit out for a year, as that would let players move freely to and from teams in a manner similar to free agency in the NBA. Then we’d have to find the right player that could possibly inspire the right amount of anger/hatred if he just so happened to “take his talents” to the wrong team.

Imagine if Hansbrough Moved to Duke...

OK, ready? Imagine if Tyler Hansbrough announced after UNC’s Final Four loss to Kansas in 2008 that he was going to transfer to Duke for his senior season. Kinda the same situation. A ringless player jumps ship in search of a possible championship. Imagine the public outcry. Imagine the reaction in Chapel Hill. Imagine Hansbrough’s first trip to the Dean Dome in a Blue Devils’ jersey.  You think Cleveland hates James? Just think about hatred felt by Tar Heel Nation if the reigning player of the year jumped ship to play for its bitter rival. Cleveland fans harbored no ill-will toward the Heat before this year, UNC fans don’t need any reason to wish bad things upon Duke and Coach K.

I don’t know if the environment in our hypothetical Dean Dome would trump the Quicken Loans Area. But it would be a memorable night… one of the most epic evenings of hoops in college basketball history.

Anyway let’s get back to reality with our third installment of TWTW.

What We Learned

• Despite its overtime win at Virginia Tech, I don’t like what I see from Purdue. While discrediting the Boilermakers’ chops as a national player was a popular thing to do in the immediate aftermath of Robbie Hummel’s season-ending ACL tear, there was still a small group that warned people not to overlook Matt Painter’s club.  “Hey! We’ve still got E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson!” There’s no debating Moore’s and Johnson’s basketball credentials, but the problem is there’s not much firepower apart from that inside-outside duo. Against Richmond and Virginia Tech, the Boilermakers put up some pretty dreadful offensive numbers. They only made four field goals in the first half against the Spiders en route to a 16-53 shooting night (30.2%). They improved slightly against the Hokies (36.2%), but Johnson and Moore combined for 43 of Purdue’s 58 points Wednesday night. To compete in a Big Ten that’s looking more and more loaded as the season progresses, the Boilermakers are going to have to find some offensive balance.
• Even though it boasts the best team in the country, the ACC stinks. Thank god for Duke (how many times has that sentence been written?). The Blue Devils provide some much-needed respectability to a conference that views itself as the center of the college basketball universe. This year, though, the ACC shares more in common with the Atlantic 10 than the Big East. #1 Duke is the only squad ranked in RTC’s top 25. Let’s take it a step further. If you look at the AP poll, the ACC only boasts two teams outside of Durham, N.C., that received votes. North Carolina checks in at #29 and Virginia Tech at #32. The conference lost the ACC/Big Ten Challenge by a count of 6-5. And for every positive result like Duke’s 84-79 win over Michigan State or Virginia’s upset at Minnesota, there were disasters like Georgia Tech’s 20-point thumping at Northwestern, Clemson’s home loss to Michigan and N.C. State’s 87-43 loss to Wisconsin. Could Duke possibly go 15-1 or 16-0 in conference play this season? TWTW wouldn’t bet against it.
• Maybe all of that talk about Florida’s return to national prominence was a little bit premature. The Gators began the season expecting to battle Kentucky and Tennessee for the SEC East title because they… ummm, they… why did everyone think this team would be great, again? Billy Donovan’s bunch definitely is going through some growing pains. Since its blowout loss at home to Ohio State on November 16, Florida struggled to beat the likes of Morehead State and Florida Atlantic and then got beaten by Central Florida on Wednesday. Like Purdue, the Gators aren’t performing on the offensive end. Florida has only topped 70 points once in the past four games, and its 75.3 points per game rank 94^th overall as of Wednesday night. The most troubling stat for Florida is that it ranks 93^rd in the nation in assists as only three players on the Gators’ roster (Erving Walker, Chandler Parsons and Kenny Boynton) average more than one dime a game.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

The biggest hoops weekend of the year thus far features a blueblood clash, a national championship rematch, a good mid-major battle, a key top 25 Battle in Seattle and a bunch of other quality matchups. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#14 Kentucky @ North Carolina – 12:30 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

The UNC-Kentucky Game Is Always Special

Two of the three members of the 2,000 win club meet in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels holding a 21-11 edge in this series. Even better, Gus Johnson is calling this game for CBS in its first nationally televised game of the season. North Carolina has won five of the last six meetings and could really use a quality win after starting the year 0-3 against major conference opponents. The story for North Carolina will be turnovers. Roy Williams must be going crazy over his backcourt, which committed 14 of UNC’s 18 turnovers in a loss to Illinois on Tuesday. Carolina ranks #217 in turnover percentage but Kentucky, surprisingly is just #305 in forcing turnovers. That could help North Carolina’s confidence in a home game where the place will be sold out and the fans really fired up. If Harrison Barnes can break out of his slump, North Carolina has a really good chance to win this game. Tyler Zeller and John Henson have been the only reason UNC has been competitive. With everyone else on the team having a hard time, Zeller and Henson have combined to average 26 points and 18 rebounds per game. They’ll face a different kind of challenge against Kentucky star freshman Terrence Jones. The 6’8 Jones has been on a tear to start the season, averaging 21/10 while blocking over two shots a game and stretching his game to the perimeter as well. It’ll be interesting to see whether Roy Williams puts Henson or Barnes on Jones defensively as neither comes close to Jones’ strength and athleticism for his size. A better strategy might be to let Jones get his points and focus the defense elsewhere, specifically on getting turnovers from Brandon Knight. The freshman point guard has played well for John Calipari, but his 4.5 turnovers can be a major problem against an up-tempo team like North Carolina. UNC ranks #19 in tempo which is the quickest pace Kentucky has seen since Washington in Maui. Against the Huskies, Knight had eight turnovers and no assists, though he did score 24 points. North Carolina’s guards must be ready defensively against a Kentucky team that shoots 41% from long range, good for #25 in the nation. The Tar Heels have not been good defending the trey, ranking #185. This matchup could tip the balance of this game towards UK if UNC doesn’t defend well. North Carolina gets 61% of its points from inside the arc, something to watch against Kentucky’s tough interior defense which ranks #8 in block percentage. Expect a fun to watch game with a lot of talent on the floor and intensity on the sidelines and in the stands. It’s hard to predict a winner here because UK has the edge overall but UNC is at home where they enjoy a nice advantage. Best to call this one a toss-up.

#1 Duke vs. Butler (IZOD Center, East Rutherford, NJ) – 3:15 pm Saturday on ESPN (***)

The rematch of last year’s epic title game doesn’t have nearly the same feel. Duke is better than last year while Butler has had a rough start to the season with point guard Ronald Nored suffering a concussion against Siena. He’s day-to-day according to Brad Stevens and may miss this game. Butler’s do-everything star from last year’s team, Gordon Hayward, is gone too, averaging just two points a game in less than ten minutes for the Utah Jazz. The Bulldogs were shredded by Louisville and upset by Evansville at home last week, two disappointing losses for a team that came in with high expectations again this year. Look for Duke’s shooters to dominate this game as Butler really struggles on offense and is mediocre defensively inside the three-point line. Butler ranks #171 in two point defense and is one of the worst teams at blocking shots, #312. Duke’s opponents get most of their points inside the arc but Butler is just #246 in two point percentage. Leading scorer and rebounder Matt Howard is making 55% of his shots but as a whole the team is just at 43.5%. Shelvin Mack is back too and has done a nice job distributing the ball, especially with Nored out. Howard’s foul problems are still there but he has yet to foul out of a game this season. Going up against the athletic Mason Plumlee and company inside, it would be naïve to think Howard won’t have foul problems in this game given his history. Duke is the top ranked team in offensive efficiency and should be able to pile up the points against Butler. Kyrie Irving, coming off his spectacular 31-point performance against Michigan State, makes his return to his home state of New Jersey and will surely be ready to play well in front of the home folks. Duke simply has too much for Butler this time around. While it’s sure to be nostalgic for most college basketball fans, don’t expect this game to be close especially if Nored is still out.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

After Virginia’s upset of Minnesota last night, the ACC is off to a good start in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. Will that continue tonight as the games ramp up? We also have a really good Big East/Big 12 clash on tap this evening. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#2 Ohio State @ Florida State – 7:30 pm on ESPN (****)

Chris Singleton Has Been Mostly Outstanding This Season

Ohio State’s last journey to the state of Florida was a rousing success, a 93-75 shellacking of Florida in Gainesville. The Buckeyes face an opponent with a much different style, but also a team that was beat by the same Florida team that lost to Ohio State. We said this was a crucial week for Florida State and now it becomes even more important as the Seminoles are in danger of going 0-2 at home against two quality teams in a span of three days. FSU star Chris Singleton was held in check by the Gators, shooting just 2-12 on the night. Singleton must get back on track for Leonard Hamilton and his team to have any chance against Ohio State, it’s as simple as that. This game features two of the top five teams in defensive efficiency but Florida State’s offense has held them back. The ‘Noles rank #94 in offensive efficiency, a far cry from the Buckeyes lofty #4 perch. Florida State has to have a strong defensive game against an explosive Ohio State offense but it doesn’t stop there. A solid performance on the other side of the ball is imperative. Florida State can play all the defense it wants but they won’t win without better scoring. Michael Snaer had a great game against Florida, going 5-6 from beyond the arc. He’ll need more of that against an Ohio State perimeter that can match or better him with guys like Jon Diebler (48% from three) and David Lighty. Singleton versus Jared Sullinger in the post will be one heck of a matchup. Perhaps the best defensive player in the nation goes up against one of the best offensive post players (62% FG) and whoever gets the edge could lead their team to victory. Two key areas bear watching in this game: turnovers and rebounding, especially on the offensive end for Ohio State. The Buckeyes rank #6 in forcing turnovers while FSU is #276 averaging 18 turnovers a game. If Florida State is turning the ball over that much they can essentially forget about getting a win tonight. Ohio State is #10 in offensive rebounding percentage while the Seminoles are #187, not doing a good job on the defensive boards. Ohio State is the favorite here but it would be hard to imagine them playing so well again away from home. Florida State isn’t desperate but they are in need of a big time win. They may not get it tonight but we think they’ll come out with a strong effort and make this a very interesting game.

#10 Georgetown vs. #10 Missouri (in Kansas City) – 9 pm on ESPNU (****)

Both teams tied for tenth in our latest RTC Top 25 released yesterday, though their playing styles could not be any more different. Missouri uses Mike Anderson’s version of “forty minutes of hell,” acquired from his time spent as an assistant under Nolan Richardson at Arkansas. The Tigers rank #16 in tempo and are second in the nation at forcing turnovers. That could be a problem for a Georgetown team that likes to play at a slower, more deliberate pace. The Hoyas average 15 turnovers per game and rank #222 in turnover percentage. Georgetown gets most of its points behind the three point line from the trio of Chris Wright, Austin Freeman and Jason Clark. All three shoot at least 45% from the arc with Freeman checking in at an astounding 58%. As a unit, Georgetown is the sixth best three point shooting team in the nation. Missouri, #196 in defending the three, is going to need its taller wing players such as 6’6 Kim English (two steals per game) to harass the Hoya shooters with his length and athleticism. Missouri as a whole is not very good at three point defense (#196), but neither are the Hoyas (#189). Marcus Denmon and Michael Dixon Jr. are Missouri’s best deep threats and will need to minimize the pain of the Georgetown three point attack by making shots of their own. Coach Anderson uses a deep bench to rotate fresh players in and out in order to keep the defensive pressure strong throughout the game. No Missouri player averages more than 26 minutes per game. While Georgetown is almost exclusively a perimeter oriented team, they’ve received good contributions from Julian Vaughn and Hollis Thompson up front, combining for 19/14 a game. Missouri holds an edge in the front court behind Ricardo Ratliffe (11/10) and Laurence Bowers (12/7). The Hoya big men need to rebound the ball effectively against a solid Missouri front line that will stay fresh with two other contributors coming off the bench for Anderson. Georgetown is going to need something good off the bench from a few other players in order to keep their starters fresh against the relentless Mizzou pressure. This should be a tremendous basketball game and whoever holds the edge in three point shooting or rebounding should come out on top. Expect a forty minute battle with the outcome not determined until very late.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

• Ken’s Favorites: The Big Ten boasts five schools checking into Ken Pomeroy’s top 20, more than any other conference in the nation. The upcoming ACC/Big Ten challenge should heighten the non-conference strength of schedule.
• Player of the Week: Kalin Lucas, G, Michigan State: Lucas struggled in the Spartans’ loss to Connecticut, shooting 4-12 from the field, committing five turnovers and scoring ten points, but he rebounded to drop a career-high 29 points on just 13 shots in the victory over Washington. That was followed up with a 15-point effort against Tennessee Tech. Lucas will have to be on for Michigan State to take down Duke in its challenge game.  An honorable mention here goes to John Shurna. Northwestern only played one game, but he scored 23 points, grabbed six boards and dished out four assists in the Wildcats’ 65-52 victory over Creighton.
• Newcomer of the Week: Jereme Richmond, F, Illinois: You could give this award to Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger every week, but to avoid that, let’s recognize the efforts of Richmond. He’s starting to work his way into Bruce Weber’s regular rotation and is playing well. He scored 12 points and grabbed five boards at Western Michigan in a 78-63 victory.

Power Rankings – subject to a lot of early season fluctuation

1. Ohio State (5-0) – The Buckeyes’ ranking is purely based on their victory over Florida earlier in the season because Morehead State and Miami (OH) proved to be nuisances, but also 19- and 21-point victories. Ohio State’s defense appears to be in midseason form.
2. Minnesota (6-0) – The Golden Gophers are still undefeated after an easy victory over North Dakota State. Minnesota won’t get much of a test playing at home against Virginia to start the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In fact, no real big non-conference games exist before Tubby Smith’s team opens Big Ten play against Wisconsin on December 28.
3. Illinois (6-1) – The Illini are about to start a tough stretch of non-conference games with home games against North Carolina and Oakland plus a road trip to Spokane to play Gonzaga for their next three. Demetri McCamey is still the leader, but four other players averaging double figures in scoring have emerged to give him help early.
4. Michigan State (5-1) – The Spartans still might be the best team in the Big Ten, but slide them down a bit after their upset against Connecticut at the Maui Invitational. Still, rebounding to take out Washington is always a good start towards redemption. In the periphery, Derrick Nix returned to the team after staying in East Lansing while his team went to Maui.
5. Northwestern (4-0) – A victory over Creighton gave Northwestern its best start in 17 years. That probably says more about the Wildcats’ basketball history than their record. Northwestern hasn’t lost in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge since 2008 and the Wildcats desperately need a victory over Georgia Tech, especially since it’s at home, as part of their NCAA Tournament profile.
6. Purdue (5-1) – The Boilermakers dropped this far because of their loss to Richmond in the finals of the Chicago Invitational Challenge. The game against the Spiders showed some cracks in the offense. Whether it is something systemic or just an off night is what will determine Purdue’s future spots in this ranking.
7. Wisconsin (4-2) – The Badgers played very good defense at the Old Spice Classic, but they also didn’t play much offense. The offense was effective in spurts against Notre Dame, but it wasn’t enough for Wisconsin to pull out the victory. Still, the win over Boston College might prove useful later in the season.
8. Indiana (6-0) – The Hoosiers’ game against Boston College on Wednesday will be their first real test of the season. Indiana doesn’t need to win, but Tom Crean needs something to build on before his young team plays Kentucky on December 11.
9. Penn State (5-1) – The Nittany Lions played at Ole Miss and lost a shootout 84-71 in 60 possessions. They rebounded for a victory over Furman, but the game against Maryland is a really big one if Penn State wants to be taken seriously as an NCAA Tournament at-large candidate.
10. Michigan (3-2) – Two losses might not look pretty, but considering they were against Syracuse and UTEP, it’s not the end of the world. The defense is playing well and keeping the Wolverines in games, but the offense is going to have to fix itself in order to beat Clemson or maybe even Harvard when former coach Tommy Amaker’s returns to Ann Arbor on Saturday.
11. Iowa (3-3) – The Hawkeyes can score a lot of points against bad teams – like the 111 they put up on SIU-Edwardsville on Friday, but it’s been a real struggle against even mediocre competition.

A Look Ahead

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge starts this week and the predictions are rolling in that the Big Ten will take the title for the second straight season. While it could happen, it’s likely going to be very close and come down to an upset or two. The Big Ten isn’t coming off the best of weeks either, as Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State are all looking to recover from losses. What’s Coming Up? (all times EST)

• 11/30 – Ohio State at Florida State – 7:30 p.m., ESPN
• 11/30 – Illinois vs. North Carolina – 9:30 p.m., ESPN
• 11/30 – Northwestern vs. Georgia Tech – 7:00 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/1 – Michigan State vs. Duke – 9:30 p.m., ESPN
• 12/1 – Wisconsin vs. North Carolina State – 7:15 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/1 – Purdue at Virginia Tech – 7:30 p.m., ESPN
• 12/1 – Penn State at Maryland – 9:15 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/1 – Indiana at Boston College – 7:15 p.m., ESPNU
• 12/4 – Illinois at Gonzaga – 5:15 p.m., ESPN
• 12/4 – Purdue at Alabama – 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/4 – Penn State vs. Duquesne
• 12/4 – Michigan vs. Harvard

Fun With Efficiency Margin

At the moment, Ohio State appears to be the class of the Big Ten and one of the top teams in the nation along with Kansas and Duke. I’m sure a lot of college basketball fans are ruing the day that the ACC/Big Ten Challenge was scheduled and pitted Michigan State against the Blue Devils instead of the Buckeyes.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Tonight’s SYT games come from the 2K Sports Classic in New York City and the Puerto Rico Tipoff in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Rankings as per the latest RTC Top 25. All times eastern.

Maryland vs. #5 Pittsburgh — 7 pm on ESPN2 (***)

Ashton Gibbs Has Been Nothing Short of Spectacular This Season

Maryland would have been here regardless but a shaky effort against College of Charleston last week has to give Terp fans some second thoughts about their team this season. It doesn’t get any easier against Pittsburgh this evening in the Big Apple. Pe’Shon Howard’s heroics bailed the Terps out against Charleston but they’re going to need solid contributions from many more players in order to compete with Pitt. After a bit of a rusty start against Rhode Island, the Panthers have obliterated their cupcake opponents on the backs of leading scorers Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker. Pittsburgh is an incredibly deep team, with the rotation sometimes dipping into the ninth or tenth man on the roster. Jamie Dixon has an outstanding rebounding team which will present major problems for Maryland. The Terrapin front court, led by Jordan Williams, is really good and can hang with Pitt on the glass. The problem lies in the backcourt where Pitt’s guards and wings are tremendous rebounders for their size. Maryland has a couple good rebounding guards but this is where the depth of the Panther lineup will really flex its muscle. Dixon can rotate fresh players in and out all night and still have enough manpower to control the boards. Pitt is the second ranked offensive rebounding team so far in the young season. The other glaring issue for Maryland is turnovers. The Terps have had problems handling the ball so far, averaging 20 turnovers per contest. By contrast, Pittsburgh controls the ball well with Gibbs and Travon Woodall off the bench and is fairly successful at getting steals. If the Panthers are prone to one thing it’s three point shooting. Unfortunately for Maryland, they are not a particularly good three point shooting team to begin with so they’ll need an above average shooting performance from their guards to take advantage of this. Even so, it’s hard to see Maryland having enough to win this one. You know Gary Williams will have his troops ready and playing hard but the depth, talent and coaching of Pittsburgh should be too much for Maryland to overcome in Madison Square Garden, Pitt’s second home.

Western Kentucky vs. Minnesota — 7:30 pm on ESPN3.com (***)

This game from the Puerto Rico Tip Off is intriguing because it features a mid-major sleeper and a major conference sleeper picked by some to win this tournament. Last Friday, Western Kentucky went into Philadelphia and absolutely demolished St. Joe’s by 28 points led by 31/9 on 11-15 FG from Sergio Kerusch off the bench. WKU has shot the lights out in their two games this year, averaging 56% from the floor. Remarkably, that’s better than their percentage from the free throw line (52%). The Hilltoppers now face some stiffer competition in Puerto Rico this weekend. Minnesota is 2-0 but didn’t exactly blow the doors off either of their opponents. The Golden Gophers haven’t shot it well from the arc or the free throw line in the early going but are making up for it in the paint. The trio of Ralph Sampson III, Trevor Mbakwe and Colton Iverson is going to be extremely difficult for the undersized Hilltoppers to handle. Ken McDonald’s team has only one contributor tall enough to match Minnesota inside and that is Cliff Dixon. He won’t be able to do it alone so barring foul trouble, expect Minnesota to dominate this game in the paint. Western Kentucky needs to make up for that on the wing as their three leading scorers, including Oklahoma transfer Juan Pattillo, are all 6’5 or 6’6 and play off the ball. On defense they may even be drawn inside to help guard Minnesota’s formidable front line. Any foul trouble for these players would only make it tougher for WKU. Minnesota needs to get Blake Hoffarber going from deep. The dead-eye senior shooter has struggled thus far, hitting only 4-13 from the three-point line. He’s made up for that by getting others involved, dishing out 13 assists in his first two games. Just like their opponent, Minnesota also struggles from the free throw line. This is a hard game to predict because if the Hilltopper wings get hot early they may be able to sustain that late into the second half. Minnesota needs to establish the paint early and get some WKU players into foul trouble. Western Kentucky may stay within reach for most of the game but Minnesota should be able to pull away and win comfortably.

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