How did the Upset Weekend impact our poll this week?  Since so many teams lost, there wasn’t all that much relative movement.  Analysis after the jump…

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This has been buzzing around for 24 hours, but it’s now been confirmed by Jeff Goodman that Ohio State superstar and November NPOY favorite Evan Turner will return to the court this evening in the Buckeyes’ home game against Indiana.  It was a little bizarre how everyone in Hoops Nation seemed to forget about Turner as soon as he broke several vertebrae in his back in a nasty fall versus Eastern Michigan.  We wrote in this space a month ago that Ohio State would be lucky to go .500 while he was out (expecting him to be on the mend until early February), and they’ve gone 3-3, losing all of their away games.  After tonight’s game against IU, the Buckeyes face games at Minnesota and Purdue, with a home game against Wisconsin.  OSU needs Turner back on the floor, and in a big way.  Even if he’s not 100% tonight or this weekend, his presence will go a long way toward keeping his team focused and calm.  This is great news for the Buckeyes, and even better news for college basketball. 

Colonial – Ryan Restivo of SienaSaintsBlog  (READ MORE)

William & Mary is on a Roll. The Tribe have won ten straight, a new school record, and won 48-47 at Hofstra on a Kendrix Brown three point play to continue their historic season.  William & Mary is 2-0 in the CAA for the first time since 1997-98.  The Tribe have not started this well since 1948-49 when they started 14-2.  More impressively, the Tribe never gave up the lead at Maryland after the 4:44 mark in the first half in a convincing 83-77 win in College Park.  After dropping their first two games to Connecticut by nine and Harvard in triple-overtime, the Tribe have racked up impressive statement wins over Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland.  According to Kenpom.com, their Offensive efficiency is tops in the nation (124.2).

Missouri Valley – Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review  (READ MORE)

Northern Iowa mowing down the Valley — Those that don’t consider Northern Iowa the class of the Valley need to have their head examined (including myself, before now).  The Panthers are on an 11-game winning streak after following a tough road win against Creighton in Omaha with victories against Evansville and Missouri State to race out to a 3-0 conference record in the first week.

SEC – Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog  (READ MORE)

The big story in the SEC this week was the arrest and indefinite suspension of four Tennessee basketball players — Tyler Smith, Melvin Goins, Cameron Tatum and Brian Williams.  The group was arrested on a myriad of drug and weapon charges.  Some of the charges were felonies, and given the recent problems with UT’s football program, it is hard to imagine any scenario in which the players may step back on the court this season.

ACC – Steve Moore  (READ MORE)

After splitting the top spot last week with rival UNC, the Blue Devils sit atop this week’s rankings all by themselves. No, it wasn’t the win over Long Beach State or the 59-point demolition of Penn. Duke pretty much dismantled highly regarded Clemson Sunday night, posting a 21-point win that was never even remotely that close.  Jon Scheyer is scoring more than enough for Duke, and Kyle Singler and the Devils’ frontcourt proved it could handle a seasoned big man like Trevor Booker. An impressive win, to say the very least.

Big Ten – Jason Prziborowski  (READ MORE)

Big 10 Madness has begun – Conference play started this past week in the Big Ten, and they didn’t disappoint. Indiana loses Maurice Creek, their top scorer and player, and then they upset Michigan at home. Michigan, not to be outdone, gets revenge for what their football team couldn’t do against OSU. Wisconsin, not wanting to miss out, blows out both OSU and PSU. Surprisingly, only Michigan and Minnesota have at least a win and a loss. Everyone else either hasn’t lost, or hasn’t won.

Over the long holiday weekend, Syracuse and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kentucky & Purdue — with a shot at the holy grail of a perfect season.  None of the coaches will admit to it on the record, but they all hate losing, and each of them would welcome a chance to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to win every game put in front of them.  There’s only one problem.  It’s collectively called the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten gauntlets schedules. 

As you’re well aware, there have only been two schools in the last two decades who have run the regular season table — UNLV in 1991, and St. Joseph’s in 2004 — and of course the aforementioned Hoosiers a generation ago were the last to go unblemished throughout.  There are many reasons for this, especially given that it’s difficult to win every single game with a growing target on your back, but the primary reason that Tark’s Rebels and Martelli’s Hawks were able to do it when so many other great teams were not was because they played in mid-major conferences (the Big West and Atlantic 10, respectively).  This is not to say that those conferences are cakewalks, because they’re not.  Every league has its share of rivalry games, other good programs and rattlesnake pits disguised as home gyms that make life difficult on favorites.  But what those conferences provide that is often missing among the BCS conferences are the true bottom-feeders that give elite teams such as UNLV/St. Joe’s breaks on a given night.  Have a tough shooting night at Vandy or Baylor?  You’re going home with your first L.  A tough shooting night at Fordham or Long Beach, though?  You’re probably still ok. 

With the clear knowledge in mind that all four of the remaining unbeatens are going to lose a regular season game (or several), let’s take a look at the remaining schedules to pinpoint exactly when and where that might happen.  First, let’s see what Pomeroy has to say.  He provides percentage odds on every future game, and if you extrapolate out over the rest of the year, you can start to pinpoint the true likelihood of when that first loss might occur.

This is a good starting point, as Purdue appears to be the most likely candidate to lose next (@ Wisconsin on Saturday), while Kansas seems to be the most likely team to run the table (10.2% isn’t exactly a lock, though).  The statistical analysis Pomeroy provides only tells part of the story, though, so we’re going to break down each team’s likelihood of its next loss using another analytical tool – our brain. 

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Missouri Valley – Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review (READ MORE)

Surprises at the top — A year ago, you would not have seen Missouri State and Wichita State at the top of the conference with Creighton and Bradley towards the bottom.  But this is how the crazy Valley non-conference season has gone so far.  The Valley is an impressive 80-32 (.714) in non-conference play with some nice wins against top level conferences that have been missing over the past few seasons.

SEC – Paul Jordan of Wildcat Blue Blog (READ MORE)

Finally!   College basketball is back in the SEC after a couple of weeks of finals (and the holidays) and it is back with a vengeance with two bitter in-state rivalries for both Kentucky and Tennessee.  Aside from that, Baylor does a curious double dip in the SEC and most of the good action is actually televised this week.

Big Ten – Jason Pzirobowski  (READ MORE)

I don’t know if you looked at the new AP top 25 poll, but if you have, you may have done a double take when you saw Northwestern at number 25. It’s for real, for the team that has never made the NCAA Tournament, they are well on their way.  Now five Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, #13 Ohio State, #23 Wisconsin and #25 Northwestern.

ACC – Steve Moore  (READ MORE)

What’s the deal with UNC-Greensboro? I understand that the poor Spartans have a short trip to almost every ACC school, and can fatten their athletic wallet with games in ACC gyms. But they’ve gotta grow tired of this, right? Greensboro plays 13 non-league games this season, and six of them come against ACC foes. The Spartans have already lost to Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Wake Forest  by a combined score of 319-235, and still have to face N.C. State and Maryland this week. To add to their misery, the Spartans have also been thumped by Richmond (26 points), Akron (24 points) and East Carolina (21 points). I’d love to hear that recruiting pitch…

Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Two things from the past week:

• Luckily for Michigan State, it is still December, because they have still yet to prove that they can beat a top 10 team, losing to Texas in the biggest game they have played so far this year.
• I don’t know if you looked at the new AP top 25 poll, but if you have, you may have done a double take when you saw Northwestern at number 25. It’s for real, for the team that has never made the NCAA Tournament, they are well on their way.  Now five Big Ten teams are in the top 25: #4 Purdue, #11 Michigan State, #13 Ohio State, #23 Wisconsin and #25 Northwestern.

Standings

1. Purdue 11-0
2. Michigan State 9-3
3. Ohio State 10-2
4. Wisconsin 10-2
5. Northwestern 10-1
6. Illinois 8-4
7. Minnesota 9-3
8. Penn State 8-4
9. Michigan 6-5
10. Indiana 5-6
11. Iowa 5-7

Top Storyline

This past week was relatively calm with the holiday season, but I believe that was just the calm before the storm. This week there are some amazing matchups that will really show who’s who in the Big Ten, both in conference and on the national stage. Be sure to check out RTC throughout the week to make sure you don’t miss any of the action. If you want to see all of these games, you might need to get a little creative.

Coming Up

• December 30th – Northwestern @ Illinois, 9:00 ET – I think this game, if Northwestern wins, adds legitimacy to their ranking and actually makes the January 2nd game against Michigan State even more important. If Northwestern wins, the MSU game doesn’t matter that much.
• December 31st – Ohio State @ Wisconsin, 2:00 ET, ESPN2 – This is the matchup of the week in the Big Ten as far as conference standings shake up. Of course, it will also lead to repercussions on the national stage as well. Wisconsin is super tough at the Kohl Center, but Ohio State is a team with something to prove without Evan Turner.
• January 1st – West Virginia @ Purdue, 2:30 ET, ESPN – This is the marquee matchup nationally, and a chance for Purdue to either show up or fall. It could go either way, as West Virginia is coming off of two solid wins this past week, especially the overtime victory against Seton Hall.
• January 2nd – Michigan State @ Northwestern, 6:30 ET – Like I said earlier, if Northwestern loses against Illinois, this game could be a moot point if Michigan State plays like they can. If not, this could get very interesting, as Northwestern needs to prove they can play against top teams, and see what kind of home court advantage they can have in the Big Ten. A lot is at stake for the Spartans too.
• January 2nd – Gonzaga @ Illinois, 1:00 ET, CBS – Since I have already started to play the scenario game, I am going to keep at it. Let’s say Illinois pulls off the upset against Northwestern at home, and the victory gets them back on track. This is exactly the type of game Illinois needs, and Gonzaga doesn’t want to let slip away. If we want to comparison shop the Big Ten, Wisconsin lost by 13 earlier in the season to Gonzaga, and Michigan State won by four.

Breaking It Down

• West Virginia @ Purdue – It’s on. I have mentioned this game for weeks now, but now it is finally here. This is by most measures, the biggest test for Purdue this year, and since Purdue is carrying the banner for the Big Ten, a great game to showcase the Big Ten against the Big East. Stats of the game: free throws and offensive boards. Purdue has an almost 10% lead from the charity stripe, but West Virginia sends a lot of big men to the offensive glass. If Purdue can hold WVU to their season averages without giving up the boards they will win this game.
• The Spartans were corralled, but must slay a cat. Okay, enough about MSU losing to Texas. They played a solid first half, and couldn’t stop the Longhorns from coming back to win the game. If you want to read more about the game though, check it out here on RTC: ATB: Texas the New Florida? Ok, last week is last week, and this week is well… this week. Michigan State, if they are good team, should beat teams they are expected to beat. Cinderella status notwithstanding, MSU should beat Northwestern, so they need to get it done.
• Ohio State needs to pack a winter coat this week. Ohio State, or should I say, David Lighty and Ohio State put on a show and took down Cleveland State. David Lighty lit it up for a career best 30 against the Vikings (pun intended), so nobody is wondering if he is serious about filling a void. Cleveland might be a past tournament Cinderella, but the Buckeyes might need a more balanced effort to slay the mighty Badgers at the Kohl Center. The Kohl Center holds one of the most sizable home court advantages of anywhere in the nation. OSU can hope that Wisconsin students are still on break, and won’t come back from vacation early for this game. The key word there is hope.
• Northwestern made the rankings, now can they stay? Somebody either has a great sense of humor or has been schooled in irony. Northwestern has been getting votes all year to be in the top 25 while not really playing anybody, but now that they made it, they have to be play Illinois followed by Michigan State. It is completely plausible that the Wildcats could be 0-2 in the Big Ten and definitely be out of the top 25 by the end of the week. Winning on the road at Assembly Hall in Champaign is tough, so if they can do that, their confidence should be sky high to take on the Spartans. That game, given the talent level of the two teams, should go to MSU, but don’t count the Wildcats out yet.
• Wisconsin extinguishes the Flames to get ready for the Bucks. What else can I title the only game Wisconsin played since last week, other than that? Ok, I could think of a few more, but I will leave it at that. Illinois-Chicago was a good filler game to remind the Badgers that they are now concluding the preconference slate, and a 36-point drubbing got the point across. The first week of conference for Wisconsin is what I call The Week of the States: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State. The Buckeyes game should be very interesting, as Wisconsin would love to slow it down, and OSU would love to hit the century mark. May the team that best plays its game and doesn’t allow the other team to do the same will win.
• Illinois likes a consistent win-loss pattern this year. Lucky for Illinois, so far each time they have won four games, only to follow it up with two losses. Why lucky you ask? In case you weren’t following the embarrassing loss to Mizzou, but that made it two losses in a row. Surely Illinois will follow it up with four wins a row. To pull it off though, they need to take down one Cat and then one Dog. They need to bring in Northwestern and Gonzaga, and beat them both. If they can do that, their four-game win streak gets easier with Iowa at home, and then Indiana on the road.
• Minnesota will be looking for wins 6 and 7 before Purdue. Not much to report on Minnesota since they haven’t played in a week, but I am hoping the break did them well because the easy schedule will be coming to an end very soon, and they will have to prove where they stack up in the Big Ten. I expect them to take down Penn State and Iowa, but it isn’t preposterous that they could lose the next three in Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State.
• It’s make or break time for the Michigan Wolverines. Such high hopes for Michigan this year, but as of yet, very little has materialized. Two unpredictable teams will meet up this New Year’s Eve in Michigan and Indiana. If IU brings the team that lost to Loyola, it’s an easy Michigan win. If they bring the team that knocked off Pittsburgh, the Wolverines will be clawing their way through a tough one (yes, another pun for those keeping track). After Indiana, maybe the basketball team can make up for the frustration of the football team when they bring Ohio State to town.
• Penn State takes a break from basketball. Penn State cruised against American, but they will be in trouble against Minnesota on the road, especially having not played in eight days, and then the tough road doesn’t stop. They will have Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois. They could be 0-4 before battling it out for the bottom of the Big Ten against Iowa. Hopefully it won’t be the case, but stranger things have happened.
• Indiana without Maurice Creek, what team will emerge? Indiana has had a rollercoaster year thus far, some exciting, some frustrating, all unexpected. The one steady positive variable for the Hoosiers this season has been the superstar freshman Creek, but now Indiana will be without him for the rest of the year, as he fractured his knee against Bryant during a rout, and will have season ending knee surgery about the time you read this. What will happen to Indiana without Creek’s 17 PPG and emerging leadership presence?
• Iowa is in for a long month. Iowa decided to take an 8-game break in between their game against South Carolina State and Purdue, mainly as a way for it to really soak in that they would be kicking off conference play against Purdue. I don’t see a winnable game in much of January until they play Indiana, so they did an ingenious scheduling move to build confidence mid-conference: they scheduled a game against Tennessee State on the 12th of January. The only problem is that move could backfire, as TSU only lost to Northwestern by 7 and Vanderbilt by 13. I wish I had better news for the Hawkeyes.

Here’s this week’s Top 25, and you might be surprised as a new #1 takes over even though the top six all won last week.  Analysis after the jump…

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1. Horrible news for Tom Crean’s young Indiana Hoosier team, as leading scorer Maurice Creek broke his kneecap during last night’s game with Bryant and will miss the rest of the season.  Creek is one of the top freshman scorers in America at 17.6 PPG, ahead of other notables such as Kansas’ Xavier Henry (17.2) and Derrick Favors (12.9).  Huge blow to Indiana as it heads into the conference season.
2. Northwestern landed at #25 in the AP poll for the first time in forty seasons this week.  How awesome is that, especially after all of their injury problems this season?  Nine of their next ten games are very tough matchups for the Wildcats, but we’ll be rooting for them.  This could be the best little-guy story we’ve had in some time in this game if they can stay in the hunt for an NCAA bid this year.
3. Seth Davis’ annual Jigsaw Man article, and it has nothing to do with Saw VI either.
4. Jeff Goodman explains why and when the six remaining unbeatens will lose rather soon.  No argument on that point, but specifically, we do think Syracuse and Texas will last longer than what he suggests.  Texas losing at Arkansas is a pretty big reach with as bad as the Hawgs have been this year.
5. Yeah, conference play begins in earnest this week in the Pac-10, Big East and Big Ten, but it feels a little weird to have meaningful conference games before the New Year holiday.  We’ll be there watching, though.

As we said in this post yesterday, we’re handling our conference check-ins a little differently now.  We’ll be posting them on a daily schedule, as usual, but they won’t be posted in full on the main page.  Rather, you’ll need to check the little box above to see what the latest conference check-ins are.  To jog the memory, we’ll also be posting daily excerpts of the previous day’s check-ins, at least for a while to get everyone used to the change. 

Yesterday, we had check-ins from the Big Ten and the SEC…

Big Ten – Jason Prziborowski (READ MORE)

Was Butler a fluke or is Ohio State on the verge of dropping out of the top 25?  Butler is definitely on the way back up, but I am questioning whether OSU has enough in its tank to make up the difference. William Buford, who is averaging 12/4 on the year, stepped up for 20/7 for the Buckeyes. David Lighty, who is 12/5 on the year, went for 16/7 against the bulldogs. OSU is averaging 85.4 points per game this season, and scored just 66 against Butler. That’s about the gap of one Evan Turner.  (…)

SEC – Paul Jordan (READ MORE)

It was a very slow week in the SEC as three teams did not see any action at all.  Kentucky and Mississippi State represented the SEC well in the SEC/Big East Invitational while Florida and Georgia lost their matchups.  Both Mississippi teams have been coming on strong and supplying some firepower to the West; Tennessee has only one setback and they should challenge UK all season.  The big story for the rest of the year will be the race to 2000 wins between UK and North Carolina.  Kentucky has pretty much assured themselves of being the first team to break the 2000-win plateau as they currently have 1998 wins to 1992 for UNC.  (…)

1. Will Brandon Knight become the next Derrick Rose Tyreke Evans John Wall for John Calipari at Memphis Kentucky?  One of the top players in the Class of 2010 has, according to Zagsblog, listed his final four schools:  Kansas, Kentucky, UConn and Florida.  He’ll sign in the spring, but you have to believe that with Wall leaving Lexington in April, the Wildcats would be very well situated for another one-and-done point guard prospect to enter the school.
2. Arkansas can’t seem to get anything right lately.  It’s a small violation, but the Hawgs self-reported a violation involving photo images of players in a magazine.
3. This was rumored last week, but it became official yesterday.  The Big Ten will formally explore the option of adding a twelfth team to its mix, ostensibly to have a football championship game.  We hope to have an analysis up later on this, but how will it affect basketball?  John Gasaway thinks it will come down to Pittsburgh or Missouri.
4. Do you know anything — anything at all — about the Western Carolina Catamounts and their star player Jake Robinson?  Educate yourself.
5. Roy Williams explained himself further on his radio show Monday night.  Let’s just say that he didn’t apologize for overreacting, instead choosing to contextualize his thinking of the incident to excuse his behavior.   Here’s the relevant excerpt, but we suggest you read the entire thing here.

Saturday night, all of a sudden, some guy stands up and starts yelling at Deon and it came from behind our bench. And you know how when some things happen, you instantly think of something? My first thought was, ‘Now our parents are having to listen to somebody else, and it’s in our own building.’ And so I turned around and I said, ‘Who said that?’ And about 40-50-60-70-80 people started pointing up at this guy. The guy gets up and starts gyrating with his arms and everything like, ‘Yeah, it was me,’ and that kind of thing. And it really did tick me off. I turned and said something to the ushers behind the bench and they started up through there, and I turned around and coached the game. I have no idea what happened. I never turned around to the guy again. But my feeling was immediately that our parents who sit right behind our bench have to put up with that stuff again in our own building. So that was it. And after the game, they told me that they had escorted the young man out. Supposedly what had happened was they had asked him for his ticket and he didn’t have a ticket or wasn’t supposed to be sitting in that seat. Supposedly, and I want to emphasis the word supposedly, he didn’t cooperate as much as they wanted, and they chose to take him out.