Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

The big thing from the past week:

• The Big Ten is wide open – So much for Michigan State being in the driver’s seat. The Big Ten has now split itself almost completely in half. There are the teams in the top who have a legitimate shot at winning the conference, and the rest that have absolutely no shot except for the role of spoiler. Michigan State has lost three straight, Ohio State has won five straight, Purdue has won six straight, and Illinois has won five straight. Now the race is on. There are few head-to-head matchups of top teams in the next week, so be on the lookout for upsets as the only way to continue the conference shakedown.

Now four Big Ten teams are in the top 25: Purdue #6, Michigan State #10, Wisconsin #11, and Ohio State #13.

Power Rankings

1. Purdue                                 20-3, 8-3
2. Michigan State                  19-6, 9-3
3. Wisconsin                            17-5, 8-4
4. Ohio State                           18-6, 8-3
5. Illinois                                   17-8, 9-3
6. Minnesota                          14-8, 5-5
7. Northwestern                   16-7, 5-6
8. Michigan                              11-12, 4-7
9. Indiana                                 9-13, 3-7
10. Iowa                                      8-16, 2-9
11. Penn State                          8-15, 0-11

Coming Up

• Michigan @ Minnesota – February 11^th – 7:00 ET – ESPN – This is really the battle of the two teams in the Big Ten with some of the most unfulfilled potential, at least as far as the pre-season rankings are concerned. Rather surprisingly, these two teams have yet to meet this season, but at home, I am leaning toward a victory for the Gophers, but I look forward to seeing what Team Sims & Harris have to say about that for the Wolverines.
• Ohio State @ Illinois – February 14^th – 1:00 ET – CBS – This is the first of two great Valentine’s Day games in the Big Ten. I know it might get you in trouble to watch this game instead of doing some more traditional things that won’t get you in trouble. For the single guys, or those who are married and who want to get in trouble, this should be a great game, especially in terms of how the Big Ten standings will shake out. It is very likely that, as of press time, Illinois and Ohio State will be tied with Michigan State for the top of the Big Ten. This will be the first matchup for these two teams, so it will be interesting to see what Illinois does to compensate for their lack of size and strength against the Buckeyes. I think OSU is playing too well right now to lose this game, even though Demetri McCamey is going toe to toe with anyone in the Big Ten right now for Illinois.
• Minnesota @ Northwestern – February 14^th – 5:00 ET – This game means more to Northwestern than for Minnesota, at least as far as postseason hopes are concerned. Minnesota won the last matchup by 4 points at home, but it should be a different game on the road. The Gophers have struggled on the road this year, especially against decent teams, so the edge goes to Northwestern, especially if the Big Ten hopes to have five or six teams in the tournament this year, which might be a stretch, based on the conference’s RPI ranking.

Breaking It Down

• Oh where, oh where have the Spartans gone? Michigan State’s leadership is firmly vested in Kalin Lucas.  Unfortunately for Michigan State, three games ago, when taking on Wisconsin on the road, Lucas sprained his ankle, and the Spartans haven’t been the same since. The Spartans with Lucas don’t lose against Illinois, but I am not sure he could have overcome Purdue at 100%. The problem area for MSU has been their defense and the inconsistent play of Durrell Summers. In their first matchup, Wisconsin shot 33.3% for the game against MSU’s 38.1%. In the second matchup, Wisconsin shoots 50.9% to MSU’s 37.0%. Same with the Illinois games. In the first matchup, Illinois shoots 34.9% compared with their 52.5% for the second. Durrell Summers was good for double figures in losses to Illinois and Wisconsin, but only 2 against Purdue. Summers can’t be that inconsistent for the Spartans to win, especially with Lucas not back at full strength yet.
• Purdue has now established itself as the top team in the conference again. The Big Three for Purdue are really playing well right now, and that has turned the Boilers around. At times during their losing streak not all three cylinders were firing at the same time, but now they are. E’Twaun Moore just had a season high against Michigan State with a 25/6 asst game. Robbie Hummel is always solid, but now JaJuan Johnson is now much more consistent as well. Johnson averaged 6 PPG during their slide, but has been averaging just shy of 19 PPG in this six game winning streak. Purdue will take care of Iowa, but winning against Ohio State on the road is something that the senior class has never done.
• Wisconsin loses at home. Wisconsin had an 18-game winning streak and a 51-game winning streak against unranked opponents in the Big Ten under coach Bo Ryan snapped in the past week. I would have expected someone like Purdue or Michigan State to pull off the upset, but instead it was Illinois. Wisconsin actually blew out Michigan State at home, so it is even more surprising that Wisconsin lost this game. There are some interesting differences between the Michigan State and Illinois games. The first has to do with bench minutes. Against the Spartans, the Badgers were able to rest their starters a little bit more with Rob Wilson playing for 24 minutes and putting up 10 points. Against Illinois, the Wisconsin bench only played a combined 18 minutes and contributed 7 points. Keaton Nankivil also had a deep drop in production and shooting percentage against Illinois, once again relying too much on the long range bomb, and only having one drop. The good news for Wisconsin is that their schedule only includes two games that might be tough in the future in Minnesota and Illinois on the road.
• Ohio State might be the second best team in the Big Ten, if not the best. Ohio State has only lost one game in the Big Ten since Evan Turner has been back, and only two games overall. Ohio State was #13 nationally before Turner went down, #18 the week after, #17 the week after that, then #13, and then dropping from the Top 25 following losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. They are back where they started, but I believe they are a much stronger team now. I don’t think Turner will let this team lose, at this point. The rest of the team didn’t do a ton against Iowa, so Turner went off for a 32/7/5/4 steals game, matching his career high in points. Did we mention this guy is only a junior? Talk about simply amazing. Ohio State has games ahead with Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State that will ultimately determine who wins the Big Ten.
• Minnesota wins on the road behind Lawrence Westbrook. Minnesota got blown out on the road against Evan Turner and Company, and almost blew another game against Penn State, but some last second heroics by Lawrence Westbrook, helped to dash the Nittany Lions hopes as well as preserve Minnesota from being the first team to lose to Penn State this year in the Big Ten. Four of the five starters have been playing well as of late, with the exception of Devoe Joseph. Where has this guy gone? I saw him at Indiana, and was very impressed, but his production has fallen off a cliff. It might be due to confidence, or something else, but without Joseph, they can’t win the big games. The Michigan game could go either way, and they could take off Northwestern’s glass slipper if they are able to win on the road.
• Illinois is tied for the lead in the Big Ten, really? I wrote last week that I thought most of Illinois’s success in the Big Ten was due to their scheduling. I don’t think I wrong on that assessment up until a week ago, but the reason Illinois is tied for the lead in the Big Ten is that they have really stepped it up as of late. Beating Michigan State and Wisconsin were huge wins, and really demonstrated the parity in the Big Ten this year. Demetri McCamey has turned himself into an animal in the Big Ten, and making the case that he should be a first team All-Big Ten guy at the end of the year if he keeps this up. He beat Indiana at the buzzer, took over against Wisconsin, and destroyed Michigan State from long range. Give it to Mike Tisdale for exploiting Wisconsin’s lack of height, as he can’t play with the big boys, which has been shown all year. Illinois is atop the Big Ten, but is far from out of the woods. They still have OSU twice, Purdue, and Wisconsin. If they can survive that gauntlet they might be able to prove that they are a tournament team.
• Northwestern needs to continue to win the must-wins. Northwestern did a great job against Indiana at home, especially with a very balanced scoring attack, with all five starters in double figures. They took the game early and never looked back. They will need to do the same against Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State, and Indiana. They really only have one game left that could get them into trouble, and that’s Wisconsin. I look forward to seeing how Northwestern does when they’re in control of their own tournament destiny.
• Can Michigan be a spoiler? Michigan has hit the skids in the Big Ten. Ever since their win against UConn, they’ve gone straight downhill. Sure, they beat Iowa, but that’s not really news. At this point, Michigan can only settle for spoiler. The games I see on their schedule in which they would most likely fill that role are Illinois at home, and Ohio State and Michigan State on the road. I am not sure they have enough firepower to beat either OSU or MSU, but they could have a shot against Illinois. Sure, they beat OSU earlier, but that was sans Evan Turner, so I heavily discount that win. Let’s see what Michigan can do.
• Indiana’s slide continues. Indiana can’t seem to perform with the same level of energy in back-to-back games these days. They brought everything they could against Purdue and took it to the wire against the sixth-ranked team in the nation at home. Then they came out flat against Northwestern on the road and got blown out. Now they have lost four straight with maybe only one game that they should win left in Big Ten play. That could be a good sign for the Hoosiers who tend to play much better as underdogs, anyway. Verdell Jones continues to put up big numbers, but it looks like Christian Watford might have solved his scoring slump against Northwestern, which is a good sign for the Hoosiers.
• Will Iowa win another game in the Big Ten? Iowa has now lost four straight in the Big Ten, and it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future. Their best shot is Indiana at home, and that might be the only other game they win this year. Of course, Indiana doesn’t want to repeat what happened to them at home at Iowa, so it is hard to predict what will happen with that game. The good news for Iowa — more for next year than this year — is that they aren’t getting blown out. The bad news is that they are only scoring in the high 40s and low 50s in their games, clearly not enough offensive production to hang with the big boys who are used to putting up a lot more points. To add insult to injury, Iowa is shooting in the 30%-range, and having to rely on offensive put-backs for offense. The Hawkeyes gear up for Northwestern at home before taking on Purdue on the road.
• Penn State is still winless. It is unfortunate that when looking at the headlines about Penn State games, it is usually about the other team’s heroics in pulling out the big games. The fact is that the Nittany Lions have yet to win a game this year. Their last win goes back to December 21^st against American. Maybe Penn State should have been as clever as Iowa to schedule an easy non-conference game in the middle of the year to make sure their confidence doesn’t wane. One would hope that they could pull out one of these close games, but so far they continue to come up empty, with the latest disappointment coming from Lawrence Westbrook’s heroics at the buzzer. Talor Battle continues to be the best player to play on a losing team. Penn State takes on Michigan State at home before hitting the road to take on Northwestern and Michigan.

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…

Atlantic 10

(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).

Locks: Temple.

Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.

Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)– Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.

Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)– The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.

Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)– The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.

ACC

Locks: Duke.

Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)– Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.

Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.

Florida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)– After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.

Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)– At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.

Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)– A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)– Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#12 Tennessee @ #24 Vanderbilt – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

These two teams have taken different directions since their meeting on January 27.  In that game, the Commodores shot over 50 % from the field (including 57 % from the three-point line) in Tennessee’s only home loss of the season.  The Volunteers responded with close wins over Florida and LSU, as well as a win over South Carolina on Saturday.  Vanderbilt has now lost two of their last three games, including a recent 14-point defeat at Georgia, who is still below .500 on the year.  The difference for the recent trends is that Vanderbilt has given up at least 70 points in the last six games, while UT has surrendered fewer than 56 points per game since the loss at Thompson-Boiling Arena.  For the entire season, Tennessee has played much better defense, with a defensive efficiency ranking of #9 (Vanderbilt is ranked #63 according to Ken Pomeroy).  Both teams score in the high 70s per game, but the Commodores could use some more help from A.J. Ogilvy, who scored just six points on 2-8 shooting against Georgia.  The Volunteers may be the hotter team, but Vanderbilt has already figured out how to beat UT and has the luxury of playing at home, where they are undefeated on the year.  The winner of this game will be right behind Kentucky in the SEC standings, but the loser will essentially be eliminated from a top seed in the SEC tournament, so look for this game to be played at maximum intensity.

Illinois @ #13 Wisconsin – 7 pm on Big Ten Network (****)

With the Big Ten so packed at the top of the conference, each matchup between the league leaders could see huge gains or losses in the conference standings.  Depending on what happens in tonight’s Michigan State vs. Purdue game (previewed below), Wisconsin could share the Big Ten lead with a win or fall to fifth place with a loss.  Michigan State is the only two-loss team in conference play, but Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, and Purdue all have three losses, so the conference title is still up for grabs.  Wisconsin was predicted to finish seventh in the Big Ten this year by some experts, but has recovered from Jon Leuer’s wrist injury with wins in four of their last five games.  Illinois, who has come out of nowhere to join the Big Ten leaders, has won four games in a row, but they have played Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa before their upset against Michigan State.  They will now begin a crucial stretch in which they play much better teams in Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue.  If they have any hopes of a Big Ten title, the Illini will have to win at least two of those games.  RTC will be live at this game, with some interesting matchups to look out for.  Illinois averages 74.2 points per game, but the Badgers rank fifth in points per game and defensive efficiency.  Illinois’ recent win raised some eyebrows in the Big Ten, but the Badgers don’t beat themselves (#1 in fewest turnovers per game) and don’t lose at the Kohl Center, so look for Wisconsin to win this one and make another run at a Big Ten title.

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The winner of this game tonight could be looking at moving up to a share of first place in the Big Ten tonight.  Illinois also needs a win to solidify their tournament status.  The Badgers always play tough at the Kohl Center, and are 13-0 in Madison this year.  Illinois is more of an offensive-oriented team, but the Badgers are usually able to slow down the pace and bring the score into the 50s or 40s.  Wisconsin ranks fifth in the country at 56.2 points per game, and are in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

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RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.

1. One team that I believe could make a run for the Final Four that people seem to be slightly ignoring is Wisconsin. The Badgers should be favored in every game the remainder of their schedule other than possibly at Minnesota or at Illinois. Remember, Wisconsin already played their six games against fellow Big Ten contenders Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State and emerged clean with a 3-3 split. Finishing the season on a 6-1 run basically guarantees the Badgers a top-three finish depending on the fortunes of those rival teams and that could put Wisconsin in the tremendous position to play their first two NCAA games in nearby Milwaukee. Bo Ryan’s team is incredibly efficient, ranking in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re top-40 in the nation in two-point FG%, FT%, blocks and steals and rank just below in effective FG%. The Badgers boast tremendous computer numbers- #9 RPI, #10 SOS, #53 non-conference SOS- and have three wins against the RPI top-15. Not many teams can match that overall portfolio. Throw in the committee factoring in the Jon Leuer injury, and it’s entirely plausible Wisconsin could go from being predicted ninth in the Big Ten to earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Throw Bo Ryan’s name in there along with Jim Boeheim, John Calipari and Steve Alford for National Coach of the Year.

2. One team that no high-major wants to see in the first round of the NCAA Tournament is Siena. We know their recent history of winning tournament games, toppling 4-seed Vanderbilt two years ago and pulling out a 2OT classic over 8-seed Ohio State a season ago largely due to the heroics of Ronald Moore. While the Saints did blow their chances to pick up quality wins out of MAAC play- losing to Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech and Temple- Siena is inching towards the polls, boasting an unblemished 13-0 conference record and a winning streak that stretches back to mid-December. A win in Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler on February 20 would make it an absolute certainty Siena earns a bid regardless of the MAAC Tournament, but even with a loss the Saints should run through their conference regular season and postseason at 21-0 and garner a seed in the 9-11 range. Other than Kenny Hansbrouck, head coach Fran McCaffrey has nearly his entire squad returning from that Ohio State victory. Moore is averaging an incredible 8.1 APG to lead the nation while Edwin Ubiles appears to be inching towards 100% after a banged-up start to the campaign. Ryan Rossiter has developed into a legitimate low-post threat and effective rebounder and fellow frontcourt mate Alex Franklin is one of the most efficient scorers around. There’s plenty to like with regards to Siena’s chances to pulling off another first round upset: top-50 efficient offense, tremendous coaching, four double-digit scorers and, most notably, the experience of success in March.

3. There are a few reasons why the Atlantic 10 has earned an astonishing six bids in Monday’s bracket: 1) the Pac-10 turning into a one-bid league, 2) Big Ten teams like Michigan and Minnesota disappointing and 3) a mediocre middle of the Big East. Most of all, though, the league is just really good. The top-flight teams all challenged themselves out-of-conference and picked up impressive wins to show for it, from Temple knocking off Villanova, to Richmond downing Missouri and Florida, Rhode Island beating Oklahoma State and Charlotte dominating Louisville in Freedom Hall. With the exception of Rhode Island, all of the other five bid-earners have a win over the RPI top 25, and the Rams have the highest overall RPI of the bunch mostly because they played the 28^th strongest non-conference schedule in the nation. Dayton could be the team closest to the bubble; if they had fallen to Xavier at home on Saturday, the Flyers likely would have been on the outside looking in this week. Still, Dayton did beat Georgia Tech in November and if they can split their two challenging road games at Temple and at Richmond in February, Brian Gregory’s team should be in decent shape. I’d fathom that Charlotte is still the most likely team to fall out even if they currently sit at the top of the standings. They barely edged George Washington and Fordham on the road this week and still have four games against these NCAA contenders, including roadies at Dayton and URI.

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It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll.  The usual analysis after the jump…

Note that this week Rob Dauster of BiaH is filling in for one or usual pollsters. 

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Some quick thoughts going into the last five weeks before Selection Sunday…

• Kansas remains the #1 overall seed by squeaking out two games this week against Nebraska and Colorado to remain undefeated atop the Big 12. Both Syracuse and Kentucky took care of business behind them. Despite being romped by Georgetown on Saturday, Villanova slips in as the last #1 seed but must play in Salt Lake City.
• Georgetown appeared as though they might slip from the #2 seed line after their loss to South Florida mid-week, but their statement victory against Villanova healed all wounds. Also on the second line are West Virginia and Duke. Losing two games this week still kept Michigan State as a #2 seed slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue due to the Spartans being the projected conference champions.
• Wisconsin, Purdue and Kansas State as #3 seeds were obvious, but New Mexico’s impressive portfolio really jumped out at me at 21-3 (7-2) a #10 RPI and six wins over the RPI top 50. Surviving a scare from San Diego State allowed the Lobos to claim this lofty seed and play closer to home in San Jose.
• Three big climbers this week were Wake Forest, UNLV and Richmond. The Demon Deacons picked up an underrated road win at Virginia and, with an RPI/SOS in the top 25 and four top-50 wins, they’re building quite the resume. Wake might be the second-best team in the ACC. UNLV destroying BYU in Vegas pushed the Rebels up to a #6 seed while Richmond’s dispatching of Temple moved them up from bubble territory to a much more comfortable #8 seed.
• The Big East is incredibly muddled in the middle. Out of the 12 teams in my LFI, LFO and NFO categories, five reside from the Big East. Notre Dame could have been dead with a loss yesterday to South Florida, but an Irish win keeps them very much alive and doesn’t allow the Bulls to inch into the periphery of the bubble. Illinois and Virginia Tech just could not be denied entry due to their conference records despite lackluster computer numbers. Louisville and Cincinnati are also close calls.
• Marquette and Old Dominion were extremely close for the last bid, but the Golden Eagles winning their last three while the Monarchs have fallen in two of their last three flip-flopped the schools. Coincidentally, both hold a signature win over Georgetown. One team that needs to watch out is Oklahoma State, now straddled with a losing Big 12 record and just three wins over the RPI top 100.

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Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Three things from the past week:

• Michigan State suffers first defeat in the Big Ten – Michigan State has won a lot of close games lately, but this one wasn’t close at all. Wisconsin not only had a 15 point lead at half, but they closed it out with an 18 point victory. This was Michigan State’s lowest scoring night of the year with only 49 points. Durrell Summers might have turned the corner though, with 11 points, but he was the only Spartan in double figures. I admit that I didn’t expect quite this level of thumping, but give it to Wisconsin and their fans. Kalin Lucas also had to leave the game with a sprained ankle, so MSU will be holding its breath to see if he is back in action soon. For those who missed the game, RTC Covered It Live: RTC Live: Michigan State @ Wisconsin
• Ohio State is turning it on – Wow, what a difference a week can make. Ohio State suffered a close loss to West Virginia, a game in which they had the lead at halftime. They clearly learned from that defeat, and poured it on, especially against Minnesota. What a contrast to the game earlier in the year when they didn’t have Evan Turner, and lost by 11 on the road. They turned that around to produce a 22 point thumping of the Gophers at home. Ohio State had a very complete game against Minnesota, a great sign for them that Evan Turner doesn’t need to carry the load. William Buford has been tearing it up, especially his career high 26/5/5 asst game against Minnesota. And the Penn State game was a foregone conclusion.
• Is Illinois’s scheduling the result of most of its success? – Illinois is 7-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten, but who have and haven’t they beaten? Fortunate for Illinois, they have had a great schedule up until this point. They have beaten Northwestern, Indiana twice, Iowa twice, and Penn State twice. They have lost to Purdue, Northwestern, and Michigan State. Essentially, they have beaten the bottom teams in the conference, and lost to two of the top teams. That doesn’t bode well for Illinois, as they gear up to take on Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and then Purdue. I don’t think they are strong enough to get through that gauntlet.

Now four Big Ten teams are in the top 25: Michigan State #5, Purdue #8, Ohio State #13, and Wisconsin #16.

Power Rankings

1. Michigan State                  19-4, 9-1
2. Purdue                                 18-3, 6-3
3. Wisconsin                            17-5, 7-3
4. Ohio State                           17-6, 7-3
5. Illinois                                   15-8, 7-3
6. Minnesota                          13-8, 4-5
7. Northwestern                   15-7, 4-6
8. Michigan                              11-11, 4-6
9. Indiana                                 9-11, 3-5
10. Iowa                                      8-15, 2-8
11. Penn State                          8-14, 0-10

Coming Up

• Michigan State @ Illinois – February 6^th – 9:00 ET – ESPN – Illinois took care of Iowa, and even with the Spartans’ loss to Wisconsin, this is a big chance for Illinois to give the tournament committee a high quality conference win on which they can hang their hats, and it is a way for the Spartans to further distance themselves from the rest of the Big Ten. Illinois needs to play almost perfect to win this game, and both Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale need to step up big time. Last game was a 10 point defeat for Illinois. Let’s see what happens.
• Wisconsin @ Michigan – February 6^th – 4:00 ET – CBS – Michigan doesn’t have a whole lot to lose at this point, so that makes them dangerous. The other thing going for them in this game is that they are playing at home. Up at the Kohl Center I would think it would be all Wisconsin, but in Ann Arbor it could be a different story as far as Michigan playing spoiler. Last game was a six point defeat for Michigan. For the Wolverines to win this game it will have to be more than the Harris and Sims show.
• Purdue @ Michigan State – February 9^th – 9:00 ET ESPN – This is the biggest game in the Big Ten this year, hands down. Both of these teams are going to the tournament, now it’s all about seeding. Purdue played extremely well early on this year, and then slipped at the beginning of the Big Ten, whereas Michigan State struggled a little bit early, but has been pouring it on in conference. This is eight versus five at home. This is what it’s all about. I am very interested to see how Purdue does on the boards, if they’re able to handle MSU’s speed and power, and if they can somehow neutralize its bench.
• Illinois @ Wisconsin – February 9^th – 7:00 ET – Illinois is a bubble team at best right now; the nice Big Ten record helps, but they need to build a stronger case for themselves. Clearly a win against Michigan State would make that statement, and this game would, too. Not sure just a win against Wisconsin would make a strong enough case, especially knowing that many of their wins in the Big Ten have been against lower ranked teams.

Breaking It Down

• The Spartans are back in the top five, but not for long. I have already mentioned the loss against Wisconsin, so what everyone should be watching for now is how they respond. They are at Illinois and then have Purdue at home, so they won’t get much of a break to reflect on the Wisconsin loss. This loss and subsequent games will show what kind of team this is, especially if it turns out that Kalin Lucas can’t play next game.
• Purdue is streaking again. Much had been made about Purdue losing three in a row, mostly because they hadn’t lost any for the first eighteen games of the year. Well, guess what? They’ve just reeled off four in a row. They are also #8 in the land, so it’s not like they are going away anytime soon. I am not completely sure that Purdue is playing its best basketball right now, but they are winning in spite of that. They gear up to take on the cross-state rival in Indiana, a matchup that right now is more symbolic in nature. They have almost another week to go before taking on Michigan State on the road, the marquee matchup in the Big Ten this year. I am hoping for a close game in Flint, but we’ll see.
• Wisconsin beats up on Michigan State. It’s no secret that Wisconsin is comfortable at the Kohl Center in Madison, but nobody knew exactly how comfortable until Michigan State arrived. I guess Bo Ryan didn’t want to lose his undefeated record at home to Tom Izzo. Four players scored in double figures, but who really shined for me was Jordan Taylor. He had a 17/4/2 asst game against the Spartans, but what impressed me was how he stepped up when Trevon Hughes had to sit because of foul trouble. Next up they are at Michigan, a team that just suffered a pretty convincing defeat against Northwestern.
• Ohio State jumps into the rankings. The Buckeyes jumped seven spots in the past week. True, it was mostly because of their recent results, but it is also as a result of other teams slipping. I have already talked enough about Ohio State above, so I will keep it brief. They have reached the easier part of their schedule, taking on the likes of Penn State, Iowa, and then Indiana. They have to make sure not to play down to the competition.
• Where is Minnesota heading, and how did they get there? Minnesota got torched by Ohio State. It is fairly easy to see why. Lawrence Westbrook disappeared, as did Devoe Joseph, combining for only 12 points against the Buckeyes. They have provided a lot of scoring power of late, but Ohio State clearly flustered them. It is probably due to OSU’s big guards, but there’s something else. They need Westbrook to lead; when he does, they win, but lately he has been inconsistent. They knocked off Northwestern, but that was an exception. Losing point guard Al Nolen to academic ineligibility has definitely hurt the Gophers as well, as he led the team in assists and steals. To read the press release of Nolen’s academic appeal being denied, check out here: Nolen’s reinstatement appeal denied by the NCAA
• Can Illinois make the tournament? Maybe. I already wrote about who Illinois has and hasn’t beaten, so this section will detail the Indiana game, and what Illinois will need to do to beat better teams. Illinois let Indiana back into the game, something they can’t do against better teams. Indiana actually had plenty of opportunities to win the game, but threw away the ball in crucial spots. What is most worrisome for Illinois has to do with the two Mikes. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale disappear in big games. Davis has been benched to send a message, and Tisdale scores against undersized teams like Indiana. They can’t rely on Demetri McCamey to carry them again. He had a 19/8 asst game and the game winner against Indiana. Who else is going to step up for Illinois? The status quo won’t get them to the tournament.
• Northwestern can’t beat the big dogs in the Big Ten. Congrats to Northwestern for taking down Michigan. Michigan is a streaky and dangerous team, despite their overall struggles. Northwestern turned the dynamic duo of Sims and Harris into a very limited solo showing by Manny Harris and a non-existent one by DeShawn Sims. That was really a must-win for the Wildcats. It looks like the Wildcats do very well when they have a balanced scoring attack. John Shurna lit it up for 31 in their loss to Michigan State, but then had only 17 in their win against Michigan. They have Indiana at home and Iowa on the road, two games they must win to make the tournament. If you missed the Northwestern  game, RTC Live was there: RTC Live: Michigan @ Northwestern
• Michigan’s two man scoring squad can take care of the bottom of the Big Ten. Michigan has done well beating some of the lower ranked teams in the Big Ten and, every once in a while, surprising some of the top teams without key players.  For the most part, they can’t beat the top teams in the Big Ten. They lost in successive games to Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan State. Sure, they knocked off Iowa, but then struggled against Northwestern. I guess it is as much as you can ask for from two guys.
• Indiana still not doing the little things. Indiana lost a heartbreaker to Illinois after a solid thumping at home against Iowa. The good thing for Indiana against Illinois was they got back their characteristic energy they have been playing with all year. They also clawed away at the end on defense and forced some big turnovers on Illinois. Looking at the stats, they are similar in almost all areas except for field goal percentage. They even outshot Illinois from the charity stripe. That hasn’t happened often this season. Where Indiana broke down, though, was at the end of the game.  They had a chance to win, and turned it over.  Verdell Jones has been a solid leader since Maurice Creek went down, but sometimes Jones takes too long to turn it on. He has scored a lot of his points during the comebacks of games, but they need him the rest of the time as well.
• Iowa’s streak finally ends. I was almost joking that Iowa looked like they would be picking off Big Ten opponents in sequential order from bottom to top, but that didn’t play out for the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines were just too much for Iowa in their last matchup. When you only score 17 in the first half, that’s just too much of a hole to overcome. Aaron Fuller continues to be solid, but the rest of the team didn’t help out.  Especially the bench and their nine point contribution. The key to Iowa’s victories was its rebounding, as they were hitting the boards hard. Against Michigan, a team with a four guard lineup, they were outrebounded by six on the offensive end, and by 11 overall. That’s just too much Windex for a team near the bottom of the Big Ten to overcome, especially on the road.
• Penn State is still winless. Well, Michigan State had the Big Ten streak snapped, but Penn State hasn’t been able to say the same for their version. Penn State is viewed as the assumed win for everyone in the Big Ten. The only thing they have going for them now is that other teams might not to take them seriously. I think that is the only reason that they were able to take the Wisconsin game to overtime, especially on the road. There is no way the same team that torched Michigan State showed up for that game. Out of their upcoming games, I think the only team that they might be able to catch sleeping is Minnesota. They had a five point loss earlier against the Gophers on the road, so maybe a home game will provide just enough energy to get them over the hump and break their streak.

Tuesday Night Hoops.  Tonight’s games weren’t all that compelling from the perspective of must-see TV, but we learned a few things.  Such as… don’t ever underestimate a Bo Ryan-coached team (that rings a bell…), John Wall is happy as a clam, and Wes Johnson should save the flips for the Winter X Games coverage.

Bo Ryan Can Coach a Little Bit. #16 Wisconsin 67, #5 Michigan State 49. Could there be a better blueprint for the basketball philosophy of Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers than this game?  Clock control, care of the basketball, good shot selection, and tough defense.  The Badgers didn’t come with any secret weapons or snazzy new game plans, here.  Just the same recipe for success they’ve employed for years, now.  In fact, they’re still without Jon Leuer and had to play without Trevon Hughes for a big chunk of the first half because of some early foul trouble.  Jason Bohannon (19/4/2) and Jordan Taylor (17/4/4) amped up their games to fill the void, both playing all 40 minutes, and accounting for half of their team’s field goals.  The most impressive number you can take from this one is found in the turnovers column; Wisconsin is the BEST in the nation when it comes to taking care of the basketball, averaging only 9.4 turnovers/game coming into this one.  The Badgers gave it up only five times on Tuesday night (they’re down to 8.4 a game) while forcing MSU into 13 of their own.  Kalin Lucas going down with a pretty ugly sprained ankle in the second half didn’t help on that front, either; more details on that injury after imaging is done on Wednesday.  The win moved Wisconsin to within two games of the Spartans in the Big Ten, and both squads have four home and four away games remaining.  For additional information, RTC Live was at the game tonight.

Scary Situation Involving Wesley Johnson. #4 Syracuse 85, Providence 68. Coming into the game most fans viewed this as seemingly inconsequential, but the most important moment of the college basketball season may have happened with 11:56 left in the first half in Syracuse this season when uber-transfer Wesley Johnson went up to throw down an alley-oop, but got flipped by Brian McKenzie who was underneath his flight path. For a second everyone watching both in the Carrier Dome and on television had flashbacks to Travis Roy. Fortunately for Johnson, Jim Boeheim, and college basketball fans everywhere Johnson was able to get that extra half of rotation and land on his back rather than his head.  He talks about it here.  [Ed. Note: This is why we stay on the floor. Or is it our single-digit vertical?] After a rough stretch that saw the Orange struggle to take a 3-point lead into half, Syracuse rebounded behind a strong effort from Kris Joseph (career-high 23 points) and Arinze Onuaku (season-high 20 points) to lead the Orange to their best start (22-1) in school history.

How’d the Rest of the Top Ten Do Tonight?

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Ole Miss @ #3 Kentucky – 7 pm on ESPN (***)

Have John Wall and Coach Calipari gotten over their performance at South Carolina?  It would have appeared so after they defeated a strong Vanderbilt team by 13, but recent comments by Wall quickly put away any ease that was in Lexington.  After initially criticizing the way Calipari handles him, Wall has clarified that their relationship is fine, but more importantly, Wall is not playing his best basketball.  Going back to the end of the Arkansas game, he has made only 10 of his last 30 shots, and was held to only two assists in Columbia.  With 27 and 21-point performances in his last two games, could DeMarcus Cousins be the best player on the team and best freshman in the country?  Calipari would like help from both players against Ole Miss, a team that is tied for first place in the SEC West at 4-2.  This game would have appeared much more dangerous for UK before Ole Miss blew a three-game winning streak with a home loss against a struggling Arkansas team.  The game is in Lexington, where the Wildcats are 14-0, but the Rebels have shown the ability to play tough on the road this year.  They were beating Tennessee by 12 in the latter part of the second half before losing in OT, and only lost to West Virginia by 10.  Kentucky’s offense may rank higher in points per game, efficiency, and rebounds, but Ole Miss has the potential to stay with the Cats throughout.  They don’t have any lottery picks, but they score over 80 points per contest and have five guys who score in double digits.  Kentucky should win this game, but don’t expect the Rebels to get blown out.

Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest – 7 pm on ESPN2 (***)

Miami might be a bad team who just happened to have a good game, and Wake Forest may be a good team who just happened to have a horrible game, but judging by the last performance of both squads, it is tough to tell where these teams are heading.  The RPI would like to confirm that WFU is a vastly superior team, as the Demon Deacons come in at #23 while the Hurricanes rank #86, but both teams have five losses on the year, and Miami has two more wins.  UM started the ACC season 1-5, so it should be interesting to see how they play against the only conference opponent they have beaten this year.  In that game, James Dews connected on a shot with 30 seconds to go to give the Hurricanes a 67-66 victory in Coral Gables.  Dews scored 21 points in Sunday’s win over Virginia Tech, and will have to give his team a similar performance to upset the Deacons for a second time this year.  Wake Forest, on the other hand, is trying to get the taste out of their mouths from a 21-point loss to Georgia Tech.  WFU is one of only two teams in the country to average over 40 rebounds per game, but have been inconsistent offensively in the past few weeks.  Although Miami’s defense is ranked 83d in terms of efficiency, the Hurricanes allow less than 63 points per game, and if they hold Al-Farouq Aminu to nine points like they did last game, they will come out of Winston-Salem with a victory.

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