Preseason Bracketology: 11.02.10
Posted by zhayes9 on November 2nd, 2010Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.
Bids per conference (auto bid listed first):
Zach Hayes is an RTC editor, contributor and bracketologist.
Bids per conference (auto bid listed first):
Welcome to our RTC Impact Players series. The braintrust has gone back and forth on this and we’ve finally settled on a group of sixty players throughout ten geographic regions of the country (five starters plus a sixth man) to represent the who and where of players you should be watching this season. Seriously, if you haven’t seen every one of these players ball at least once by the end of February, then you need to figure out a way to get a better television package. As always in a subjective analysis such as this, some of our decisions were difficult; many others were quite easy. What we can say without reservation is that there is great talent in every corner of this nation of ours, and we’ll do our best to excavate it over the next five weeks in this series that will publish on Mondays and Thursdays. Each time, we’ll also provide a list of some of the near-misses as well as the players we considered in each region, but as always, we welcome you guys, our faithful and very knowledgeable readers, to critique us in the comments.
You can find all previous RTC 2010-11 Impact Players posts here.
Southwest Region (NM, AZ, NV, HI, SoCal)
Although we have been mentioning that some of the recruiting buzz might start slowing down we still saw one big-time recruit commit this week and another back out of his prior commitment.
[Ed. Note: Both videos–this and the one after the jump–are of Perea as a sophomore.]
Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West Conferences and an occasional contributor
Predicted Order of Finish
All-Conference Team (key stats from last season in parentheses)
6th Man
Billy White, Sr, San Diego State (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
Impact Newcomer
Drew Gordon, Jr, New Mexico – Gordon left UCLA midway through the Bruins awful season last year after never meshing with Ben Howland and his system, and as a result, he won’t be eligible for Steve Alford until after the first semester. But Gordon showed enough talent in his years in Westwood that he will be a welcome addition for what was an undersized Lobo team last season. However, Gordon did tear the meniscus in his right knee in mid-October and, although he is not expected to miss any game action, he may miss out on valuable practice time leading up to his expected December 17 debut.
What You Need to Know
Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.
With college basketball approaching in a matter of days, fans across the nation can look forward to one of the major draws of the sport: pre-conference tournaments. Aside from catering to hungry fans that want to see highly ranked teams do battle even in the earliest stages of the season, these tournaments are golden opportunities for coaches to judge and evaluate where their teams stands against elite competition. It presents our first chance to surmise that, say, Kentucky’s fabulous freshmen may not quite stack up to last year’s history-making class, that Duke may miss Brian Zoubek and Jon Scheyer more than originally expected or that Jacob Pullen can adequately handle point guard duties for Kansas State. The teams we label in early November as the prime contenders to cut down the nets five months later in Houston are revealed for the first time in tournament settings that allow programs to build early season momentum, confidence and quality wins that stand out come Selection Sunday. No other sport provides such drama in tournament settings at such an early point in the season.
As usual, a handful of headlining programs have elected to participate in these tournaments. Duke will encounter their first true tests in the CBE Classic, Pitt eyes a difficult field in the 2K Sports Classic and North Carolina heads out to Puerto Rico in a wide open field. All of these fields could provide intense drama and classic clashes normally reserved for the first days of spring. Here’s a preview of the best tournaments college basketball has to offer in pre-conference play and the main storylines heading into each event. Mark your calendars now.
2K Sports Classic (Opening Rounds: November 8-10, Semifinals: November 19, Finals: November 20)
The Field: Ever since the Gardner-Webb shocker upended plans for Kentucky and their rabid fans to travel to Madison Square Garden, this has been an event where the four regional hosts automatically advance to NYC. This year’s participants are Pittsburgh, Illinois, Texas and Maryland. The prohibitive favorite has to be preseason Big East topper Pittsburgh and their four starters returning from an overachieving squad that garnered a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Ashton Gibbs is a game-changing scoring guard and the athletic Gilbert Brown is an x-factor on the wing for Jamie Dixon. Illinois has expectations of reaching the second weekend in March for the first time since the national championship defeat in 2005, while Texas hopes that addition by subtraction helps avenge last season’s collapse from #1 team in the nation to first round victim. Maryland will likely still be figuring out a rotation at this stage after their three leading scorers were all lost to graduation. One player that may vault into stardom is Terps big man Jordan Williams, who nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman in the ACC.
The Sleeper: It’s difficult to fathom that losing Damion James and Dexter Pittman can possibly make a team better, but one has to prescribe to the notion that more defined roles and a clear-cut rotation should translate into improved chemistry for Texas following last season’s bitter disappointment. Rick Barnes still has tremendous talent up and down his roster including the infusion of two McDonalds All-American recruits in point guard Cory Joseph and power forward Tristan Thompson. If he utilizes more discretion on when to pull the trigger, it wouldn’t shock us if Jordan Hamilton had a breakout campaign. This also provides an early chance for Florida transfer Jai Lucas to shine on a big stage. Remember, Lucas is just two seasons removed from averaging 8.5 PPG and shooting 44% from deep as a freshman.
The Pick: While Texas has a strong chance of advancing, we’re even more bullish on Illinois in the preseason. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale bring height and scoring inside, Demetri McCamey is an assist machine at the point and freshman Jereme Richmond is the perfect answer on the wing for Bruce Weber. If they were to face Pitt in the final, McCamey out-muscles Ashton Gibbs on the perimeter, Richmond’s length contains Gilbert Brown on the wing and Tisdale’s versatility pushes Pitt big man Gary McGhee from his comfort zone in the paint. With the victory, the buzz around Illinois’ chances in the ultra-competitive Big Ten will only escalate.
CBE Classic (Opening Rounds: November 12-18, Semifinals: November 22, Finals: November 23)
The Field: While Duke, Marquette, Kansas State and Gonzaga will play two warm-up games on their home floor, all four advance to Kansas City for a star-studded doubleheader (controversy could certainly unfold should San Diego State, the preseason MWC favorite and a top-25 caliber squad in some experts’ minds, upset Gonzaga and still be forced to play in Oxford, Ohio rather than KC). As the near-consensus #1 team heading into the season’s tip-off, Duke is the favorite and receives the easier semifinal matchup in Marquette. The Golden Eagles enter the season as a likely second tier Big East team along with West Virginia, Seton Hall, Notre Dame and possibly Connecticut or Louisville. Look for the Kansas State–Gonzaga matchup to be one of the best games of the entire month. The Wildcats boast one of the best players in the nation in Jacob Pullen and a bruising, deep frontline, while Mark Few has the Zags loaded with talent, notably German import Elias Harris and sharpshooting swingman Steven Gray.
The Sleeper: Gonzaga has a golden opportunity in this tournament to do some major damage, boost their portfolio with two quality wins and become the storyline of the month of November. Defeating two top-five teams is a daunting task, but all Gonzaga has to do is escape Kansas State and at least remain competitive with Duke to make a positive impression nationally. Last year, it would have been the hard-nosed Matt Bouldin to contain Pullen around the perimeter. With Few’s ability to match his frontcourt to at least a draw with the Kansas State paint patrollers, how defensive-minded junior guard Demetri Goodson handles the challenging assignment of slowing down Pullen could ultimately determine Gonzaga’s success in KC.
The Pick: We’ve seen the role of contrarian playing by some prognosticators pegging Michigan State at #1 rather than Duke, but I’ll abstain. Duke will win this tournament, although Frank Martin’s bunch should be an awfully difficult draw in the final with their physicality and the scoring prowess of Pullen. The Blue Devils’ remarkable perimeter depth has the tools to wear down either opponent. Expect both Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins to drain some key treys that help keep the Blue Devils atop the rankings.
Fall is the most appropriately named season. It is called that because the sun is falling below the celestial equator, for you amateur astronomers out there, but poets and writers far better than this one have described so many other reasons throughout time to illustrate why fall is known as the “season of descent” — the decreasing number of daylight hours, the leaves, the mercury in your thermometer, the amount of filler material on SportsCenter. Of the few things that do indeed rise at this time of year, one of them has become one of surest signs that fall has arrived…
True, in the Driesellian sense, nobody has true “Midnight Madness” anymore. And there’s so much more interaction now between coaches and players that happens prior to that circled mid-October day where once none was allowed. It doesn’t matter, because the psychosis to which college basketball aficionados across the nation willingly give in is real, and it arrives tomorrow.
That’s right, tomorrow. A big black “x” in the October 15th square on your wall calendar means that hoopheads are celebrating their own national holiday, which, inasmuch as it isn’t real Midnight Madness, we’ll call the First Official Day of Practice (FODP). Like it or not, the NCAA still calls the shots, and if they say that that particular day is open season for full-squad, you-can-use-a-ball workouts to begin, then celebrate we will, for the season is short but sweet for certain (apologies to Dave and the boys).
College basketball fans: get your calendars out. Over the next five Wednesdays until opening night arrives on November 8, we’ll unveil a portion of our 68 Can’t-Miss Games of 2010-11, a countdown of the matchups that you need to make sure to see this season. From the early season headliners to the best rivalries conference play has to offer, this list has you covered with the game, date, time (ET), network and a brief synopsis of what to expect. Remember, folks: this list doesn’t even include another eight to ten must-see early-season tournament games, for which we’ll have a separate post later this month. Without further ado, here is the second installment on the list — set your Tivos/DVRs now.
To see the #55-68 games on this list, click here.
#54. January 29 – Florida at Mississippi State, 1 pm (CBS)– This matchup just got even juicer with the NCAA ruling that Dee Bost can join Renardo Sidney after sitting out the first nine games of Mississippi State’s season. The inclusion of an experienced point guard and an ultra-talented center vaults the Bulldogs into clear SEC West preseason favorite status. One of the highlights of their conference slate is Florida visiting The Hump for a late January clash on national TV. The Gators return all five starters and add a dynamite recruiting class led by Patric Young and Casey Prather, so expectations couldn’t be higher for Billy Donovan’s squad.
#53. February 22 – Michigan State at Minnesota, 9 pm (Big Ten Network)– We already covered Purdue’s trip to Minneapolis earlier in the series, but this late-season clash could potentially determine the fate of the Gophers’ NCAA Tournament hopes. Tubby Smith’s team projects to be a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team that could be clawing for a tournament bid in late February. What better opportunity for a bid-clinching win than the Spartans rolling into town? The problem for Smith and Minnesota: Tom Izzo’s squads normally play their best basketball late in the season. Opposing teams on the Spartans’ schedule should also try to knock them down early before Kalin Lucas inches closer and closer to 100% health.
#52. January 5 – BYU at UNLV, 10 pm (CBS College Sports)- One of many banner matchups in an intriguing Mountain West conference this season. Jimmer Fredette can single-handedly carry the Cougars at any point, giving BYU a fighting chance should he find his stroke from outside and/or start penetrating effectively in the lane. Sidekicks Jackson Emery, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies are also back for Dave Rose. With the news passed down a couple weeks ago that UNLV star Tre’Von Willis will only miss 10% of UNLV’s games following a plea deal in a domestic violence case, the Rebels can have realistic hopes of winning the MWC. It’ll be worth staying up late for any game involving UNLV, BYU, San Diego State and possibly New Mexico/Wyoming this winter.
#51. December 23 – Georgetown at Memphis, 8 pm (ESPN2)- The final delectable bite of the appetizer that is non-conference competition before conference play gets underway: a battle of two potential top-20 teams at FedEx Forum. The guards in this contest are tremendous — from the Hoyas’ three-headed monster of Austin Freeman, Chris Wright and Jason Clark to the Tigers fabulous freshmen Joe Jackson, Will Barton and Jelan Kendrick. It’s fairly clear this would be a huge resume-building triumph for the victor come seeding debates in March.
#50. December 18 – Gonzaga vs. Baylor, 4:30 pm (ESPN2)– In typical Mark Few fashion, Gonzaga’s pre-WCC slate is loaded with quality competition. He’s never been afraid to take his Zags on the road for marquee games on semi-neutral floors. This matchup at American Airlines Arena in Houston will prove a quasi-home game for the Bears, but Few has the talent at his disposal to pull off the victory. The versatile, inside/outside play of two potential lottery picks — Baylor’s stud freshman Perry Jones and Gonzaga’s German import Elias Harris — is reason enough to tune in.
For the past 3 months, much of the college basketball world has speculated about how Lon Kruger and the UNLV administration would punish Tre’Von Willis following his arrest on a charge of domestic violence stemming from an incident where he allegedly strangled a woman on June 29th. Earlier today Willis reached a plea agreement with local law enforcement authorities where he could face the following penalties:
While the punishment sounds serious it is unlikely that Willis will have to do much other than pay a relatively small fine, do some community service (probably show up at a few basketball clinics), and try not to break the law until the end of the season. If he does get into trouble with the law, Willis could be forced to serve the rest of the suspended 90-day sentence (assuming he has probably only spent one day in jail at the time of his arrest).
For his part Willis released the following statement, where he said:
I want to apologize to my family, the university, my coaches, my teammates and to the community of Las Vegas. I feel awful and embarrassed. I used extremely poor judgment, made a mistake and take responsibility for what happened. I will work hard to earn back the trust and support of the fans and those close to me.
Now for the part that most of you are interested: his suspension from the Rebels. In a statement to the media, Kruger said:
Tre’Von made a mistake and feels horrible about it. He let a lot of people down. With any mistake there are consequences and he is accepting responsibility for what he did. In addition to the legal-system penalties, he is also being penalized by the program to address the mistakes he made and will miss at least the first 10 percent of his senior season.
Although the media and UNLV’s official site are reporting that this means that Willis will miss at least three games if we are being technically correct (and since UNLV is an institution of higher learning they should be ok with basic math), the Rebels play 32 regular season games (counting the 2 exhibition games, which should count since they are counting it in his suspension), so Willis should miss more than three games (or at least four if Kruger isn’t trying to pull a Rex Ryan / Braylon Edwards suspension). According to UNLV’s schedule, the three games that Willis is scheduled are two exhibition games (against Grand Canyon and Washburn — yeah, we never heard of them either) and one regular season game (against UC-Riverside), all of which are at home. If UNLV is following Kruger’s statement to the letter (or number) they should also suspend Willis for their next game, which they play at home against Southeastern Louisiana. This would mean that Kruger would technically be able to bring his star guard back in time for the Rebels’ game against Wisconsin (surely a coincidence). The match-up of two potential top 25 teams would certainly be intriguing and making that the first game back for Willis would give Kruger and the Rebels a built-in excuse to lobby the NCAA Selection Committee in March to give them a break because the team would be readjusting to playing with Willis in case the Rebels lose to the Badgers at the Thomas & Mack Center. This isn’t to say that Kruger is trying to a Bobby Bowden by announcing a delayed suspension that would allow his players to play against a tough team first and then suspend them for a subsequent game against a cupcake, but it is interesting to say the least.
A while back we mentioned that former Saint Louis, UNLV, and (Southwest) Missouri State head coach Charlie Spoonhour had been diagnosed with a strange and unfortunately progressive lung disease called idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, the only real cure for which is a lung transplant. Coach Spoonhour had the transplant in mid-August and is said to be doing well, even able to walk up to a mile during the course of a day.
We know this is not something for which they would be outwardly seeking praise, but it’s certainly worth remembering that it was his friends and fellow coaches Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski who helped get Spoonhour into the Duke Medical Center for diagnosis and treatment of this disease. We again applaud their efforts, and we hope Coach Spoonhour’s recovery continues to go well. We hope we can continue to post nothing but positive reports about this.