It’s a Love/Hate Relationship: Volume III

Posted by jbaumgartner on December 20th, 2010

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC contributor.  In this piece he’ll spend each week reviewing the five things he loved and hated about the previous week of college basketball.

The Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED…..SILENT NIGHT!! Come on, what’s not to love about this hilarious marketing scheme where the entire crowd at Taylor University stays silent until 10 points have been scored. Palm Sunday anyone?

Creative Fans For the Win, Alex...

I LOVED…..an honest coach. This week it was Arizona’s Sean Miller, who said his Wildcats were nothing more than “frightened” kittens against the big, bad Jimmer Fredette in BYU’s rout over UA. On a similar free-flowing note, Craig Robinson of Oregon State sounded off on what he doesn’t like about the college game. Here’s to coaches who tell it like it is.

I LOVED…..that the incredible winning streak of the UConn women has us talking about John Wooden’s UCLA teams. Say what you will about how the two dynasties compare (no comment), but I soak up every bit of Bruins history I can when the mainstream media starts talking Alcindor and Walton. We’ll never see anything like it again.

I LOVED…..the worldwide effort to save Kyrie Irving’s toe. Not everyone loves the Cameron Crazies, but that’s pretty humorous.

I LOVED…..the shockers. Not that we expect anything less from our beloved college basketball, but no one saw Tennessee losing two games to mid-majors – the second to a team that had just kicked off its leading scorer. And then a downtrodden Gonzaga goes to Texas and beats a Baylor team we were just starting to hype. As usual, no logic needed.

The Five Things I Hated This Week

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Around The Blogosphere: December 19, 2010

Posted by nvr1983 on December 19th, 2010

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

  • #2 Ohio State 79, South Carolina 57: “Ohio State once again rode a dominating effort from Jared Sullinger, easily dispatching the cold shooting South Carolina Gamecocks 79-57 this afternoon in Value City Arena. In front of a regional CBS audience, Sullinger blew up for 30 points and 19 rebounds in 30 minutes of action erasing any doubts as to exactly who is the best freshman in the country.” (Eleven Warriors)
  • #3 Kansas 70, USC 68: “Winners on the day for Kansas are quite obviously Josh Selby, along with Thomas Robinson, rebounding, the first half defensive effort and surviving.  Losers?  The Kansas offense, taking care of the basketball, free throw shooting and the ability to put away an opponent.” (Rock Chalk Talk)
  • Charlotte 49, #4 Tennessee 48: “Fans of offensive basketball would have cringed at times during this game, it was all defense from both teams for most of the game.  Charlotte controlled the tempo of this game, keeping the score low and the legs fresh, and in the last 2:30 minutes, one defense folded and one held serve.” (Green Tinted Glasses)
  • Florida 57, #5 Kansas State 44: “Despite all the struggles early in the year, this team has always brought it and played well against good teams, Duke excepted.  Tonight was a different story.  Once the momentum turned against K-State, the team couldn’t find an answer.  It doesn’t get any easier, as the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be waiting in Kansas City next Tuesday at Sprint Center.” (Bring on the Cats)
  • Gonzaga 68, #7 Baylor 64: “I just sent out about 30 text messages with the same words:  “How did that just happen!?!” What a game.  What a frustratingly, close your eyes, yell, scream, cheer, ridiculous game.” (The Slipper Still Fits)
  • #12 Georgetown 99, Loyola (MD) 75: “The last tuneup of the year couldn’t have been any better for the Georgetown Hoyas.  After a week-long layoff while the players were taking finals and being college students, Georgetown came out and destroyed Loyola (MD) 99 – 75.” (Casual Hoya)
  • UCLA 86, #16 BYU 79: “One year after an ugly and embarrassing performance in front of Coach, the Bruins redeemed themselves and picked up a much needed victory against the #16 ranked and previously unbeaten BYU Cougars 86-79 in the John R. Wooden Classic (box score). With the win, UCLA notches its first “good” win of the year, and brings the Pac 10 conference a much needed victory.” (Bruins Nation)
  • #17 Purdue 65, Indiana State 52: “If you watched it, you saw what I saw- a team that looked rusty and uninspired at times versus a team that really wanted to win, but just didn’t have the firepower to do so.” (Boiled Sports)
  • #18 Kentucky 85, Mississippi Valley State 60: “This was one of those games. Most teams, like our orange and white neighbor to the south or red and black neighbor to the west, say that through gritted teeth and a frozen grimace.  But not this Kentucky team.  “One of those games” means the same thing this year as it did last year.  Against notably inferior opponents, Kentucky has off games just like everyone else.  The difference is, off games are a matter of degree, not result.” (A Sea of Blue)

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

That’s Debatable: Contenders and Pretenders

Posted by rtmsf on December 18th, 2010

That’s Debatable is back for another year of expert opinions, ridiculous assertions and general know-it-all-itude.  Remember, kids, there are no stupid answers, just stupid people.  We’ll try to do one of these each week during the season.  We’re fairly discerning around here, but if you want to be included, send us an email with your take telling us why at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

This Week’s Topic: Zach Hayes wrote an article this week examining the teams he viewed as contenders and pretenders at this point; with that in mind, who is your top contender and top pretender through the first six weeks of the season?

Matt Patton, RTC contributor

I think I have to stick with Duke for contender.  If Kyrie Irving is definitively out the whole season and Josh Selby turns out to be of a similar caliber, Kansas would probably slide up to that spot.  Ohio State comes in a relatively distant third until I see them play some conference games.  But I think the Blue Devils are the most complete team in the country: a great coach, a great backcourt and a very good (though shallow) frontcourt.  Even without Irving, I think Duke could still be the best in the country.  It’s much closer, but they still have two great senior leaders with proven postseason success, Mason Plumlee, and a couple sharpshooters who will put up 20 if you leave them alone.  On the pretender side I think the obvious choice is Connecticut with Syracuse as the bizarro runner-up.  That’s a team waiting for the wheels to come off.  Kemba Walker has carried them so far, but teams in the Big East are going to lock in on Walker and force someone else to make big plays.  Maybe Jim Calhoun will find a way to keep things going, but I doubt it.

Brian Otskey, RTC contributor

I’ll go with BYU as my top contender as they have an outright star in Jimmer Fredette and a solid supporting cast around him. The Cougars are a strong defensive team, ranked ninth in effective field goal percentage against. BYU also takes terrific care of the ball, second in the country in turnover percentage. Once they start shooting the three-ball better, this team will really take off behind Fredette, Jackson Emery and company. As for my pretender, it was a tough choice between Connecticut and Tennessee but I’m going to disagree with my good friend Zach and go with the Volunteers. I thought Bruce Pearl’s club was overrated even before the loss to Oakland and they may have peaked already. Tennessee’s great free throw rate is bound to drop plus they already give most of it away on the other end, ranked #288 in opponent’s free throw rate. The chip on their shoulder, playing so hard for Pearl despite his troubles, will eventually wear off and they’ll miss his presence on the sideline when he’s out for eight games. Tennessee turns it over too much, is not a great three-point shooting team and gives up almost 70 PPG. I realize they play an up-tempo style but that’s too high for my liking. Tennessee is still a good team that will contend in the SEC but I don’t see them as the national contender many have proclaimed them to be.

Andrew Murawa, RTC contributor

Despite Tennessee’s somewhat surprising loss to Oakland last night (ed note: this was written prior to UT’s loss to Charlotte on Friday night), that team to me is still a bona fide contender. Sure, the bad Scotty Hopson appeared for the first time this season, a somewhat scary flashback to last season’s inconsistency which we were all but promised was a thing of the past. And yes, it is awful hard to want to throw the ball into your big senior center Brian Williams in tight games when you know he’s no better than 50/50 to make free throws. But the not-so-secret weapon that convinces me that this Volunteer squad will be a force to be reckoned with is freshman Tobias Harris, who Bruce Pearl and company are only beginning to get the best out of. Eventually more and more of the Vol offense will run through Harris and, being a more than capable creator for teammates, he can get more open looks for Hopson, create easy opportunities for Williams, and just generally make the entire Tennessee team better. While some will see the Oakland loss as a sign that Tennessee is just a pretender, this Volunteer team you see now is but a pale shadow of what could become by March.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Around The Blogosphere: December 18, 2010

Posted by nvr1983 on December 18th, 2010

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25

  • Charlotte 49, #4 Tennessee 48: “I expected this…but not on back to back nights.  And not against Oakland at home, and a 4-6 Charlotte team on the road. And if you think it’s going to get any easier, you’re new to this game.” (Rocky Top Talk)

Other Game of Interest

  • Indiana 88, SIU-Edwardsville 54: “When you win by 30-plus and your opponent doesn’t hit a field goal until the 7:05 mark in the first half — which, yeesh — sometimes there’s not much to say. A dominant win is a dominant win.” (Inside the Hall: Part 1 and Part 2)

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Set Your Tivo: Weekend Review

Posted by Brian Otskey on December 17th, 2010

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

This is the last major weekend before conference play begins in earnest and it features a bunch of solid games but none that really jump out at you as must-watch. All in all it’s a pretty good set of games. Don’t forget about the two games in the Bahamas on Saturday (Richmond vs. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State). They’re not on television but are meaningful, especially the latter. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Texas vs. North Carolina (Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC) – 4 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

A Smaller Venue in Greenboro, But Still a Great Game

You may never see a game between two unranked teams have this much talent on the court as this one. Yes the Longhorns are ranked in both the AP and Coaches polls but they aren’t in our own top 25. Texas has played better this year on the strength of defense and better chemistry though a loss at USC was cause for concern. Still, Texas has a ton of talent and has the ability to turn this season into a successful one. Leading scorer Jordan Hamilton still has a so-so shot selection but he’s connecting on 41% of his treys, a positive sign for Rick Barnes. Freshman Tristan Thompson has also been a plus for the Longhorns, giving them an athletic post presence who can score and defend very well. When you look at this matchup with North Carolina however, Tyler Zeller (16/8) is going to have a significant height advantage inside. You may see Barnes turn to Matt Hill for a bigger defensive presence in the paint in an attempt to control UNC’s big man. Each team has had some issues at the point guard, especially North Carolina. The Tar Heels have seen better play from Larry Drew II (2:1 A/T ratio) but questions remain with the team averaging 15 turnovers per contest. With a talented freshman in waiting, Roy Williams has to make a decision on who should see the majority of time at the point as they head into ACC play. For Texas, Dogus Balbay has seen his minutes drop in favor of freshman Cory Joseph, a move that’s understandable from an offensive standpoint but questionable in the eyes of some who see the experienced Balbay as a team leader and an effective distributor, not to mention an outstanding defender. Texas is not a particularly great shooting team as a whole so the transition to Joseph could be more about transition opportunities and easy buckets plus Joseph is a much better shooter. As for North Carolina, getting Harrison Barnes going could be the key between middling outside the top 25 and being a consistently ranked team and #2 in the ACC. Barnes is still in a slump, shooting just 33% overall over his last five games including a dismal 5-24 (21%) from three. He’s still averaging double figures and has done a nice job rebounding but the Tar Heels need more out of their star freshman. To become a really good team, UNC needs John Henson to become a consistent third option. He rebounds very well but he’s in double figures one night and single digits the next. He may have a hard time with Thompson inside but Henson is able to stretch his game out a bit and that may open things up inside for the Tar Heels. This figures to be another close game, far different from last year’s Texas blowout. This time North Carolina has the crowd to their advantage and may come out on top by a few points. It’s a huge game for UNC, their last non-conference opportunity for a quality win. Texas still has games with Michigan State and Connecticut but this is a big game for them too in a quasi-road environment. We wouldn’t be surprised either way but a slight edge has to go to UNC in this game.

#5 Kansas State vs. Florida (BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise, FL) – 3:30 pm Saturday on FSN (****)

This is the first of two key games for Kansas State, the second coming on Tuesday against UNLV. Winning one or both will certainly help the Wildcats grab a better seed in the NCAA Tournament come March. Against Florida, K-State will have to contend with the Gators’ trapping pressure defense, something that could be a problem given their propensity for turnovers and some point guard issues. Jacob Pullen has been the main distributor at four assists per game but he turns it over more than three times per game, the most on a team that averages 16 turnovers as a unit. Florida’s back court pressure could cause a lot of problems for Kansas State and plenty of extra possessions for the Gators. Pullen doing a lot of ball handling could also be a factor in his overall struggle relative to last season. He’s never been a great shooter, 40% overall from the floor for his career, but his three point shooting is down over six percent to 33% this season. It is true that other teams are trying to lock him up like Duke did, but Pullen has to work through this and become a better player in order to lift Kansas State to the next level where they can compete for a national championship. Frank Martin may go with Will Spradling at the point in order to take some pressure off Pullen. As for Florida, expect them to fire up three’s as usual (17 per game) even though the Gators shoot just 32% as a team. Billy Donovan loves the trey, yet another Rick Pitino protégé who sticks to the system no matter the personnel he has. Erving Walker has improved dramatically but Kenny Boynton still can’t find the range for Florida. Walker shoots 20% better than Boynton from deep yet Boynton has 15 more attempts this season. Kansas State should look to isolate Walker and aggressively defend him, keeping the ball out of his hands. Pullen and Rodney McGruder may have to match Walker’s deep shooting but Martin will be content with Boynton chucking shots up and hitting once in a while, requiring Kansas State to clear the boards well. Both teams rank high in offensive rebounding percentage so the Wildcats must put an emphasis on keeping Florida off the glass as that will lead to easy Gator put backs. Florida is #15 in two point percentage, largely a result of offensive rebounds and the play of Vernon Macklin inside. Macklin against Curtis Kelly will be a key matchup to watch in the low post as each player finishes well and can rebound the basketball effectively. Kansas State should not bank on outscoring Florida from the line considering their awful free throw shooting (55%) and Florida’s ability to keep opponents off the line, second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Only three players on K-State’s roster shoot over 70% from the line and Pullen is the only one of those three who gets there often. Martin’s depth will take a hit if Wally Judge is out, dealing with personal issues, but we don’t think that will have a major impact on the game. Kansas State is still a very deep team, able to go eight or nine deep if necessary. This should be a terrific game that may come down to the very end. Ken Pomeroy predicts a two-point Florida win so this game is essentially a toss-up. We see it that way as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

The Week That Was: December 11-17

Posted by rtmsf on December 17th, 2010

David Ely is an RTC contributor.

It’s the holiday season, and this past week teams in the top 25 definitely got into the spirit of giving. Now these squads weren’t giving away toys to needy girls and boys. Instead #4 Tennessee, #20 Louisville and #21 UNLV gave the gift of an RPI-boosting upset, and in the college hoops world that’s a pretty nice present. TWTW hopes that Oakland, Drexel and UC Santa Barbara enjoyed their gifts this week, they certainly came at a hefty price — a chance to be the last undefeated squad standing. But hey, it’s the thought that counts, and we’re sure that deep down our ranked friends knew they did the right thing given the season.

Now if only #22 Memphis wasn’t such a Grinch …

Is the Presumptive Puerto Rican Olympic Coach's Louisville Team Legit?

What We Learned

  • Last week we openly wondered if Notre Dame’s hot start was an aberration or the start of a strong season for the Irish, and their loss to Kentucky made TWTW more inclined to label them a fraud rather than a legit power. This week we get to dissect another Big East squad that just suffered its first loss of the season — Louisville. The Cardinals’ eight-game winning streak to open the season came ended in disastrous fashion Tuesday night when Louisville fell 52-46 to Drexel. Yes, you read that correctly. The Cardinals could only muster 46 points against Drexel of all teams. Louisville connected on only 15 of 47 shots from the floor and struggled to adjust once it was apparently the Dragons weren’t going to let the Cardinals get out and run up and down the court. While shooting 33.3% is bad, what’s more troubling is Louisville’s 12-25 effort at the free throw line, and its -20 rebound loss on the boards. Those two things could haunt the Cardinals in Big East play and make TWTW hesitant to think they’re dramatically better than last year’s team that lost to Cal in the first round of the NCAAs.
  • What a week for Tennessee. On Saturday the Vols scored arguably the best win of the young season when they traveled to Pittsburgh and beat Jamie Dixon’s squad at the “neutral” Consol Energy Center. TWTW was ready to join the rest of the nation in singing Bruce Pearl’s praises and declaring the Vols the team to beat in a down SEC. While UT still may be the top dog down South, TWTW can’t fully endorse Tennessee right now. Not after the Vols lost at home to Oakland 89-82 on Tuesday night. That’s no knock against the Golden Grizzlies, who made the NCAA Tournament out of the Summit League last year and fell one point short of beating Michigan State this past weekend. Oakland is good, but we expect more from Tennessee. And we at least expect better defense. The Vols shouldn’t give up 89 points to any squad, especially not at home, and Oakland hit 54% of its shots (30-56) led by Keith Benson’s 26. Pearl better hope this loss refocuses his squad. Tennessee will definitely need all the mental strength it can muster when he begins his eight-game suspension at the start of conference play.
  • Gonzaga just might have overextended itself with its scheduling. Mark Few at least is entertaining that idea after his Bulldogs’ 4-5 start to the season, the worst record in Few’s 12-year tenure at Gonzaga. Four of Gonzaga’s five losses came in games against teams currently ranked in RTC’s top 25 (San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois and Notre Dame), and the Bulldogs still have to play Baylor on Saturday and Memphis in February. TWTW wonders why that kind of scheduling is necessary for a team with Gonzaga’s cache. It’s tough to think of the Zags as a mid-major anymore based on their 12 straight trips to the NCAA Tournament, and their consistent presence in the top 25 (at least until this year). Gonzaga doesn’t need to prove itself with a murderers’ row schedule. Sure, schedule a couple of games against elite competition, but there’s no need to have a slate of games that could shatter a team’s confidence. Gonzaga isn’t a program that’s used to struggling in December, it will be interesting to see how the Zags respond to this adversity once play begins in the WCC.
  • Think you know all there is about Coach K? Think all of your hate is justified? Well you should do yourself a favor and sit down and read the first two parts of Dan Wiederer’s mega-feature in the Fayetteville Observer. Part one delves into K off the court and his family life. It includes this incredible anecdote of the Duke coach at the beach during a family vacation and declaring that he’s the “Black Mamba of Beach Bocce” after pulling off a game-winning bocce toss. The second part discusses all the hate Coach K and the Duke program endures from the rest of the nation. While that angle has been written before, Wiederer’s piece comes off fresh because of all of his great tidbits and inside access. And there’s more to come with Part 3 scheduled to run this Sunday. So check it out. TWTW guarantees you’ll learn something new about K, and maybe it will open your mind to the notion that he’s not that bad of a guy. After all, with Krzyzewski likely to become college basketball’s all-time wins leader either this season or early next year, it’s the perfect time to dissect one of the most polarizing characters in the sport.

Media Blackout

The three pieces of news to know if you’ve been living in complete isolation all week.

  • Like many of you out there, TWTW watched the basketball competition during 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and thought, “Boy this is great. But you know what’s missing? Rick Pitino.” We kid, we kid. But it looks like there’s a real possibility Pitino will coach the Puerto Rican nation team during next summer’s pre-Olympic qualifying tournament in Argentina. Carlos J. Beltran, president of the Puerto Rican Basketball Federation, said the national team is in “very advanced talks” with Pitino, and J.J. Barea of the Dallas Mavericks told ESPNDallas.com that he and fellow nation team member Carlos Arroyo would meet with Pitino on Sunday if any deal with the Louisville coach is finalized. With Pitino on board, Puerto Rico would instantly become one of the most compelling squads in the Olympics should it qualify. That’s a big if, though. Puerto Rico failed to qualify for the 2008 Games and was eliminated in the first round during this summer’s World Championships in Turkey. Should a Pitino-led Puerto Rico squad make the Olympics, TWTW has but one request. Puerto Rico must face Team USA (and Coach K) at some point in round-robin play.
Share this story

Around The Blogosphere: December 17, 2010

Posted by nvr1983 on December 17th, 2010

Things have been a little slow in the college basketball world with finals and the Blogosphere has reflected that, but we’re back with another edition of ATB2. If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

  • #2 Ohio State 83, Florida Gulf Coast 55: “It was the Jon Diebler show as the senior sharp shooter tied a school record by making nine three-point baskets. He also scored a career-high 29 points. Diebler was 9-of-13 (all threes) from the field and actually connected on nine consecutive threes. He missed his first two before making the next nine and missing his last three attempts. Jay Burson held the three-point record by himself for 22 years. Burson made nine threes against Florida in 1988 at Madison Square Garden.” (Eleven Warriors)
  • #19 Minnesota 66, Akron 58: “Despite a slow start that saw them down 32-27 at halftime against an inferior opponent, the Gophers re-established their inside presence and utilized their athletic ability to take down the Akron Zips 66-58 in their last game before an eight-day finals break.” (From the Barn)

Other Games of Interest

  • Gonzaga 103, Lewis-Clark State 61: “Six Gonzaga players scored in double figures tonight as the Bulldogs dominated Lewis-Clark State, an NAIA Division I team.  Elias Harris led all scorers with an efficient 19 points in 19 minutes played.  The German forward only missed on one shot attempt all night.  Rob Sacre, David Stockton, Kelly Olynyk, Mathis Monninghoff, and Sam Dower all hit double figures in the 103-61 victory. The only noteworthy item from tonight’s game is that Steven Gray’s toe injury is not serious and he was merely held out because, well, the opponent was an NAIA team.” (The Slipper Still Fits)

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

The Big East and SEC Join Challenge Week

Posted by nvr1983 on December 16th, 2010

Given the growing popularity of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge over the past few years it seemed inevitable that the other power conferences would join the fray and earlier today the Big East and SEC announced that they would be expanding their relatively under-the-radar SEC/Big East Invitational into a more comprehensive Big East/SEC Challenge. Over the past four seasons the two conferences have engage in a series of 4 games to decide a winner. To date the conferences are tied 1-1-2 with the conferences splitting the overall games 8-8.

We could be seeing more huge SEC/Big East games in the future

While the SEC/Big East Invitational has yielded a few good match-ups over the past few seasons with the most recent being Tennessee‘s big win at Pittsburgh the fact that it only involves 4 match-ups between the conferences limits the ability of fans of either conference to confidently claim superiority based on these results although we have a sneaking suspicion that the Big East fans would have a stronger argument over the past few seasons. The new format would involve 12 games meaning that all the SEC teams would play every year and 12 of the 16 (then 17) Big East teams would participate each year. Because only the SEC teams would get to play every year the home-and-away rotation would be based on the SEC team. The games will be played over 4 days beginning on the Thursday after Thanksgiving. Keeping the Challenge to a confined period should keep fans interest and avoid some of the pitfalls that plagued the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series that is coming to an end. In a somewhat amusing move the name will alternate each year from the Big East/SEC Challenge in 2011 to the SEC/Big East Challenge in 2012 and so on. The match-ups have not been announced yet, but will be broadcast on one of ESPN’s family of networks starting on December 1, 2011.

Share this story

Behind the Numbers: The Coming Decline

Posted by KCarpenter on December 15th, 2010

So, let’s play a game. I tell you that I’m going to flip a coin (let’s say a 2009 U.S. quarter) exactly thirty times. Your job is to guess how many times that the coin is going to come up “heads.” Very cleverly, you notice that that typically a coin comes up heads about 50% of the time, so you should guess that, in this game, you will get heads about fifteen times. Okay, so I flip the coin the first five times and, surprise of surprises, I end up getting heads four out of five times. Does this mean you were wrong? Does this mean that the coin will continue to turn up heads at a 80% clip? Of course not. It’s just that variance is “magnified“ in small sample sizes. If we flip the coin the full thirty times, it’s almost certainly going to turn up heads less than 80% of the time.

Obviously, we are here not here to talk about flipping coins, but rather college basketball. So, what’s the relevance? The relevance is that right now, we are about a third of the way through the college basketball season and people are pointing to extraordinary statistics and acting as if they are going to hold up through March and April. The coin won’t turn up heads 80% over a big enough sample size, and Pittsburgh won’t continue to grab 47.9% of offensive rebounds against its opponents. Some of the extraordinary stats in college basketball are simply due to small sample size. Some teams tasting truly rarefied air in December are destined to fall back to Earth come March. Who’s due for a decline?

Glad you asked. What I’ve done is checked up on who was the leader on the offensive and defensive ends of the court in regards to each of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors at the end of the 2009-10 season. Then, I checked Ken Pomeroy’s rankings to see which teams were currently performing better than the very best team from last year. The logic is simple (and admittedly a little simplistic): It’s unlikely that many teams this season are going to perform too much better than what the best team in a given category did the year before. Unsurprisingly, at this point early in the season, there are quite a few teams performing better than any team performed last year. Let’s break it down category by category and figure out which teams are cruising for a bruising. Or a decline in efficiency. One or the other.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

None of these teams are shooting that much better than 2009-10 Denver (57.9%), but still, betting on Kansas or Georgetown’s shooting to cool off isn’t a bad bet. It’s a little early to predict Duke’s shooting to decline, but if Kyrie Irving’s absence isn’t explanatory enough for you, here’s another reason.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Around The Blogosphere: December 15, 2010

Posted by nvr1983 on December 15th, 2010

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

  • Oakland 89, #4 Tennessee 82: Differing takes from the winning side (Oakland Grizzlies Gameplan) and the losing side (Rocky Top Talk).
  • Drexel 52, #20 Louisville 46: “I’m not sure whether to make a joke or voice how pissed I truly am. I’m not sure whether this will serve as a wake-up call or a catalyst to the disappointing season we feared and so many predicted. I’m not sure if the first eight games of the season were completely misleading or if the team that showed up out of nowhere this evening will be banished for good by the time Big East play rolls around.” (Card Chronicle)

Other Games of Interest

  • Michigan 64, North Carolina Central 44: “Michigan continues to push the limit of just how ugly a 20 point win can be. The Wolverines haven’t played many complete games this year and tonight was no different as Michigan crawled their way to just 23 first half points against North Carolina Central’s 2-3 zone. While the Wolverines looked hapless and befuddled versus the zone in the first half, the Eagles made the inexplicable choice to go away from the zone in the second half.” (UM Hoops

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story