Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Last Four In: Dayton, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Louisville

Last Four Out: Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Florida, Memphis, South Florida, Texas Tech

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (7), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (6), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2).

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Belmont, Kansas, Villanova, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Arkansas State, Gonzaga, Utah State

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Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.

The top of the Big East is stacked.  Syracuse is a legitimate national title contender. Villanova may end up as a 1 seed, and West Virginia and Georgetown both look destined to 2 seeds. Hell, Pitt might even be able to play their way into a top four seed if they can figure out their issues down the stretch.

So like I said, the top of the Big East is stacked.  But what about the rest of it?

Once you get past Pitt, the Big East basically turns into one giant question mark. Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, UConn. What is the difference between these seven schools? Do any of them actually deserve a bid?  After Louisville lost to St. John’s last night, they probably don’t. The reason why might be a little different than you think.

Clearly, none of those seven teams are great teams, and some would struggle to even put them in the pretty good category. But they also aren’t terrible. They are all rated somewhere between 42d (Louisville) and 66th (Marquette) in the RPI. According to Kenpom, Marquette is 18th, Louisville 23rd, and the other five teams are sitting somewhere between 50th and 73rd.

The problem becomes separation. The seven teams in the middle of the Big East are all pretty average, meaning that during Big East play, they are going to beat up on each other. Usually, the MO for teams in the middle of the major conferences is to defend your home court against the teams you should beat, squeak out a couple on the road, and then hope you can topple one of the big boys in the league. If you can get to .500 or better in the major conferences with a couple of decent wins and a marquee win, that generally is enough to earn an at-large berth.

But this season, no one is beating the best teams in the Big East. Beating Villanova and Syracuse are season-changing wins, but Villanova has only lost to Georgetown and Syracuse has only lost to Pitt.* Wins over Georgetown or West Virginia aren’t quite marquee wins, but even those are hard to come by. The Hoyas lost to South Florida and Marquette, while WVU dropped a roadie to Notre Dame.

*Think about this. Let’s assume that Pitt had lost to Syracuse. They would then be 16-7 overall and 6-5 in the conference with wins over UConn, Cincinnati, Louisville, DePaul, St. John’s, and Seton Hall and losses to Seton Hall and South Florida. Is that really all that different from Louisville, who is 15-9 and 6-5 with wins over South Florida, Providence, St. John’s, Cincinnati, UConn, and Rutgers and losses to St. John’s and Seton Hall?

The issue isn’t that the middle of the Big East is terrible. They aren’t.  The problem is that they aren’t good enough, and that Syracuse and Villanova are too good, for the teams needing a marquee win to get that marquee win.

Let’s take a quick look at what those seven teams need to do to earn a bid (RPI numbers don’t include games from Thursday night):

• Louisville: The Cardinals’ decent RPI (42) will no doubt take a hit after they lost by 19 to St. John’s on Thursday. With just a 1-6 record against the RPI top 50 (to be fair, they have wins over UConn (RPI 51) and Cincinnati (RPI 52) in addition to the win over South Florida) and losses to Western Carolina and by 22 to Charlotte, the Cardinals desperately need a couple of wins to bolster their resume. They will get the chance, as they play Syracuse twice and get Georgetown at home. My guess is that Louisville needs to go 5-2 over their last seven games for a shot at the tournament.
• South Florida: Its weird talking about South Florida being on the bubble. They have a couple very good wins (Georgetown, Pitt) and just one terrible loss (Central Michigan). More than anything, the Bulls just need to add some depth to their profile, meaning they just need to pick up some more wins. I think USF has a good chance to earn a bid if they can get 10 wins in the league, assuming they don’t drop one to Providence or DePaul.  Beat Villanova on the road, and the Bulls will get in with a .500 league record.
• UConn: The Huskies are in big trouble. They have just one quality win (Texas), and even that win is looking less and less impressive. Their RPI (51) is only remaining respectable because their SOS is so high. But UConn will have plenty of chances to boost their resume as five of their last seven games come against teams with a RPI of 52 or better, including Villanova and West Virginia.
• Cincinnati: The Bearcats, despite the lower RPI, may actually be in better shape than UConn. They have a great win over Vanderbilt and another good win against Maryland, but Cincy hasn’t done anything on the road this season and absolutely needs to pick up a couple more quality wins. Cincy will have their shot to close out the season, as they head to West Virginia, get Villanova at home, and play at Georgetown.
• Notre Dame: The Irish lost to Seton Hall on Thursday night, which may have all but done them in. ND is now 6-6 in the league and 17-8 overall, but their only really good win is against West Virginia. The Irish played such a weak schedule in the non-conference that they didn’t leave themselves much room for slip-ups like losing to Rutgers or Loyola Marymount.
• Seton Hall: By beating Notre Dame, Seton Hall also keeps their thin hopes alive. The Pirates are like the Huskies. They don’t really have any horrible losses, but they haven’t really beaten anyone either. The Pirates only play one more game against teams outside of the bottom four in the league. They will likely have to win out for a chance to play in the tournament.
• Marquette: The Golden Eagles are an interesting case. With so many close losses, they are fairly high on Kenpom’s rankings, but sport a 66 in the RPI. They also have a couple very nice wins – Georgetown and Xavier – but not much else. 5-2 down the stretch, with a couple good wins, will get Marquette in.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Kris Joseph, Syracuse

Don’t look now, but Jospeh, who is the Orange’s sixth man, has become the second leading scorer for the Cuse. We said he would be the x-factor for this team, and it looks like he has become just that. He’s long and athletic like Wes Johnson, he can get out and run the floor in transition, he attacks the rim, and he makes plays on the defensive end. This past week, he averaged 15.5 ppg and 5.0 rpg. His two threes against Cincy sparked a late run.

TEAM OF THE WEEK: Georgetown Hoyas

The Hoyas certified themselves as a Final Four contender by going 2-0 this past week, including a beatdown on then-#2 Villanova. Georgetown jumped out to a 50-31 lead at the break on the strength of hot shooting from three, and sealed the game by controlling the ball offensively and hitting their free throws. In the other game this week, Georgetown went on the road Providence and avoided an upset by overcoming a halftime deficit. Austin Freeman continued his fantastic play, averaging 21.0 ppg for the week while Greg Monroe posted averaged of 15.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 9.0 apg.

POWER RANKINGS

1. Syracuse: 24-1, 11-1

Last Week: 2/7 @ Cinci 71-54, 2/10 vs. UConn 72-67

Next Week: 2/14 vs. Louisville, 2/18 @ Georgetown

2. Villanova: 21-2, 10-1

Last Week: 2/6 @ Georgetown 90-103, 2/8 @ West Virginia 82-75

Next Week: 2/13 vs. Providence, 2/15 vs. UConn

3. Georgetown: 18-5, 8-4

Last Week: 2/6 vs. Nova 103-90, 2/10 @ Providence 79-70

Next Week: 2/14 @ Rutgers, 2/18 vs. Syracuse

4. West Virginia: 19-4, 8-3

Last Week: 2/6 @ St. John’s 79-60, 2/8 vs. Nova 75-82

Next Week: 2/12 @ Pitt, 2/17 @ Providence

5. Pitt: 18-6, 7-4

Last Week: 2/6 vs. Seton Hall 83-58, 2/8 vs. Robert Morris 77-53

Next Week: 2/12 vs. West Virginia, 2/18 @ Marquette

6. Marquette: 15-8, 6-5

Last Week: 2/6 @ Providence 82-79

Next Week: 2/13 vs. South Florida, 2/18 vs. Pitt

7. Louisville: 15-9, 6-5

Last Week: 2/6 vs. Rutgers 76-60, 2/11 @ St. John’s 55-74

Next Week: 2/14 @ Syracuse, 2/17 vs. Notre Dame

8. Notre Dame: 17-8, 6-6

Last Week: 2/7 vs. South Florida 65-62, 2/11 @ Seton Hall 87-90

Next Week: 2/14 vs. St. John’s, 2/17 @ Louisville

9. South Florida: 15-8, 5-6

Last Week: 2/7 @ Notre Dame 62-65

Next Week: 2/13 @ Marquette, 2/16 vs. Cincinnati

10. Cincinnati: 14-9, 5-6

Last Week: 2/7 vs. Syracuse 54-71

Next Week: 2/13 @ UConn, 2/16 @ South Florida

11. UConn: 14-10, 4-7

Last Week: 2/6 vs. DePaul 64-57, 2/10 @ Syracuse 67-72

Next Week: 2/13 vs. Cincinnati, 2/15 @ Villanova

12. Seton Hall: 13-9, 4-7

Last Week: 2/6 @ Pitt 58-83, 2/11 vs. Notre Dame 87-90

Next Week: 2/14 vs. Louisville, 2/18 @ Georgetown

13. Providence: 12-12, 4-8

Last Week: 2/6 vs. Marquette 79-82, 2/9 vs. Georgetown 70-79

Next Week: 2/13 @ Villanova, 2/17 vs. West Virginia

14. St. John’s: 13-10, 3-8

Last Week: 2/6 vs. Louisville 60-79, 2/11 vs. West Virginia 74-55

Next Week: 2/14 @ Notre Dame, 2/17 vs. Seton Hall

15. Rutgers: 12-12, 2-9

Last Week: 2/6 @ Louisville 60-76, 2/8 vs. Caldwell 70-62

Next Week: 2/14 vs. Georgetown, 2/16 @ DePaul

16. DePaul: 8-15, 1-10

Last Week: 2/6 @ UConn 57-64

Next Week: 2/14 @ Seton Hall, 2/16 vs. Rutgers

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…

Atlantic 10

(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).

Locks: Temple.

Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.

Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)– Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.

Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)– The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.

Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)– The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.

ACC

Locks: Duke.

Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)– Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.

Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.

Florida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)– After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.

Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)– At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.

Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)– A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)– Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.

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RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.

1. One team that I believe could make a run for the Final Four that people seem to be slightly ignoring is Wisconsin. The Badgers should be favored in every game the remainder of their schedule other than possibly at Minnesota or at Illinois. Remember, Wisconsin already played their six games against fellow Big Ten contenders Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State and emerged clean with a 3-3 split. Finishing the season on a 6-1 run basically guarantees the Badgers a top-three finish depending on the fortunes of those rival teams and that could put Wisconsin in the tremendous position to play their first two NCAA games in nearby Milwaukee. Bo Ryan’s team is incredibly efficient, ranking in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re top-40 in the nation in two-point FG%, FT%, blocks and steals and rank just below in effective FG%. The Badgers boast tremendous computer numbers- #9 RPI, #10 SOS, #53 non-conference SOS- and have three wins against the RPI top-15. Not many teams can match that overall portfolio. Throw in the committee factoring in the Jon Leuer injury, and it’s entirely plausible Wisconsin could go from being predicted ninth in the Big Ten to earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Throw Bo Ryan’s name in there along with Jim Boeheim, John Calipari and Steve Alford for National Coach of the Year.

2. One team that no high-major wants to see in the first round of the NCAA Tournament is Siena. We know their recent history of winning tournament games, toppling 4-seed Vanderbilt two years ago and pulling out a 2OT classic over 8-seed Ohio State a season ago largely due to the heroics of Ronald Moore. While the Saints did blow their chances to pick up quality wins out of MAAC play- losing to Northern Iowa, Georgia Tech and Temple- Siena is inching towards the polls, boasting an unblemished 13-0 conference record and a winning streak that stretches back to mid-December. A win in Hinkle Fieldhouse against Butler on February 20 would make it an absolute certainty Siena earns a bid regardless of the MAAC Tournament, but even with a loss the Saints should run through their conference regular season and postseason at 21-0 and garner a seed in the 9-11 range. Other than Kenny Hansbrouck, head coach Fran McCaffrey has nearly his entire squad returning from that Ohio State victory. Moore is averaging an incredible 8.1 APG to lead the nation while Edwin Ubiles appears to be inching towards 100% after a banged-up start to the campaign. Ryan Rossiter has developed into a legitimate low-post threat and effective rebounder and fellow frontcourt mate Alex Franklin is one of the most efficient scorers around. There’s plenty to like with regards to Siena’s chances to pulling off another first round upset: top-50 efficient offense, tremendous coaching, four double-digit scorers and, most notably, the experience of success in March.

3. There are a few reasons why the Atlantic 10 has earned an astonishing six bids in Monday’s bracket: 1) the Pac-10 turning into a one-bid league, 2) Big Ten teams like Michigan and Minnesota disappointing and 3) a mediocre middle of the Big East. Most of all, though, the league is just really good. The top-flight teams all challenged themselves out-of-conference and picked up impressive wins to show for it, from Temple knocking off Villanova, to Richmond downing Missouri and Florida, Rhode Island beating Oklahoma State and Charlotte dominating Louisville in Freedom Hall. With the exception of Rhode Island, all of the other five bid-earners have a win over the RPI top 25, and the Rams have the highest overall RPI of the bunch mostly because they played the 28^th strongest non-conference schedule in the nation. Dayton could be the team closest to the bubble; if they had fallen to Xavier at home on Saturday, the Flyers likely would have been on the outside looking in this week. Still, Dayton did beat Georgia Tech in November and if they can split their two challenging road games at Temple and at Richmond in February, Brian Gregory’s team should be in decent shape. I’d fathom that Charlotte is still the most likely team to fall out even if they currently sit at the top of the standings. They barely edged George Washington and Fordham on the road this week and still have four games against these NCAA contenders, including roadies at Dayton and URI.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Some quick thoughts going into the last five weeks before Selection Sunday…

• Kansas remains the #1 overall seed by squeaking out two games this week against Nebraska and Colorado to remain undefeated atop the Big 12. Both Syracuse and Kentucky took care of business behind them. Despite being romped by Georgetown on Saturday, Villanova slips in as the last #1 seed but must play in Salt Lake City.
• Georgetown appeared as though they might slip from the #2 seed line after their loss to South Florida mid-week, but their statement victory against Villanova healed all wounds. Also on the second line are West Virginia and Duke. Losing two games this week still kept Michigan State as a #2 seed slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue due to the Spartans being the projected conference champions.
• Wisconsin, Purdue and Kansas State as #3 seeds were obvious, but New Mexico’s impressive portfolio really jumped out at me at 21-3 (7-2) a #10 RPI and six wins over the RPI top 50. Surviving a scare from San Diego State allowed the Lobos to claim this lofty seed and play closer to home in San Jose.
• Three big climbers this week were Wake Forest, UNLV and Richmond. The Demon Deacons picked up an underrated road win at Virginia and, with an RPI/SOS in the top 25 and four top-50 wins, they’re building quite the resume. Wake might be the second-best team in the ACC. UNLV destroying BYU in Vegas pushed the Rebels up to a #6 seed while Richmond’s dispatching of Temple moved them up from bubble territory to a much more comfortable #8 seed.
• The Big East is incredibly muddled in the middle. Out of the 12 teams in my LFI, LFO and NFO categories, five reside from the Big East. Notre Dame could have been dead with a loss yesterday to South Florida, but an Irish win keeps them very much alive and doesn’t allow the Bulls to inch into the periphery of the bubble. Illinois and Virginia Tech just could not be denied entry due to their conference records despite lackluster computer numbers. Louisville and Cincinnati are also close calls.
• Marquette and Old Dominion were extremely close for the last bid, but the Golden Eagles winning their last three while the Monarchs have fallen in two of their last three flip-flopped the schools. Coincidentally, both hold a signature win over Georgetown. One team that needs to watch out is Oklahoma State, now straddled with a losing Big 12 record and just three wins over the RPI top 100.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

South Florida @ Notre Dame – 12 pm on ESPN 360 (***)

If somebody told you two weeks ago that USF was a tournament team, you would be shaking your head and laughing.  Now, with four straight wins, including victories against Pitt and Georgetown in their last two games, the Bulls are looking to dance in March.  Today’s game will be in South Bend, but considering South Florida held the Hoyas to 64 points in Washington, D.C., they may in fact be ready for this game.  While USF continues to impress, the Fighting Irish are disappointing fans again with four losses in their last six games, including defeats to Cincinnati and Rutgers.  Luke Harangody has held up his end of the bargain, with at least 37 minutes and 19 points in each of the last five games.  What is killing ND is how one-sided they are.  They rank fourth in Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings, but are an astounding 239th in defensive efficiency.  Statistically, Notre Dame can still play smart basketball, as they are third in the nation in assists per game and are in the top team in assists/turnover ratio.  However, given play of the most underrated player in the country in Dominique Jones (he has scored 20 + points in every game since December) I expect the Bulls to put another dagger in Notre Dame’s at-large chances.

North Carolina @ Maryland – 2 pm on FSN (***)

The debate is now over: UNC is out of the tournament as things stand now.  For Maryland, however, questions arise if this team is a serious threat to do some damage in March.  After having the four-game win streak ended by Clemson, they responded in a big way with a road win against Florida State.  The Terrapins rank in the top ten in Ken Pomeroy’s standings, thanks to top ten rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  North Carolina, with losses in six of the last eight games, is sniffing the bottom of the ACC with a 2-5 record.  Neither their offense nor defense rank in the top 60 in Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings, so their chances in College Park do not look promising.  Maryland’s has not lost all year at the Comcast Center, but the Terps have shot around 20 % from beyond the arc in their last two games, a trend they will not be able to keep up if UNC scores near their 80.4 season average.  The difference between these two teams is that North Carolina is finding ways to lose and Maryland is finding ways to win, as shown by their late comeback against FSU.  Look for North Carolina to fall even further with another L in ACC play.

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Rob Dauster of Ballin’ is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.

Pitt started the Big East season on fire. They won five straight out of the gates, including a three game road trip in which they took down Syracuse, UConn and Cincinnati.  But after a loss to West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, the Panthers have dropped four of their last five games to fall to 6-4 in league play, just a half-game in front of Louisville and a game in front of South Florida, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.

So what happened?  How did Pitt go from the darling of the national media to a team in free fall?

Its simple. They can’t score.  Through five Big East games, the Panthers were averaging 74.0 ppg. In their last five, that number has dropped to 60.3 ppg. When the Panthers were 5-0, Ashton Gibbs was averaging 20.0 ppg, shooting 52.0% from the field, and hit 16-22 threes. In his last five games, he’s averaging just 13.4 ppg while shooting 26.4% from the field and 6-29 from deep.

Don’t put it all on Gibbs, however. He isn’t the only one struggling. Brad Wanamaker is averaging just 9.6 ppg over the last five games, including being shut out against the Mountaineers. Jermaine Dixon sprained his ankle in the St. John’s game and missed the Panther’s loss to South Florida. Dante Taylor hasn’t scored in four games, and Travon Woodall has just eight points in that span. Gary McGhee, Pitt’s 6’10, 260-lb center, couldn’t hit a layup if his life depended on it. There is no reason someone should go 3-11 from the field when they don’t take a shot outside of two feet from the rim. Nasir Robinson has scored 23 points in five games in his 26 point outburst against Louisville. Gilbert Brown is really the only guy playing well offensively right now, and even he has been painfully in consistent. He scored 20 and was 8-9 from the floor in the loss to Georgetown, but scored just 16 points on 3-13 shooting over his next two games. After dropping 25 in the loss to South Florida, Brown was shut out against West Virginia.

Its really that simple. The biggest reason that Pitt was thought to be down this season was their lack of firepower offensively. There isn’t anyone on this roster that is considered a go-to scorer. Even Ashton Gibbs, who has been one of the most improved players this season in the Big East, is more of a secondary scoring option. He’s not great at creating his own shot, especially against a set defense, and it is starting to be exposed.  But Pitt has never exactly been known as a team with tremendous offensive prowess. They aren’t going to be scoring 85 points a game and beating teams in a shootout.  Pitt’s success hinges on their ability to defend, which is something they haven’t exactly been doing great of late either. Their four losses have been some of their worst defensive performances of the season.  What is a good way to go on a losing streak?  Struggle to score the ball while playing shoddy defense.

Other News and Notes

• I told you South Florida was going to be good, didn’t I? Believe it or not, USF is now on the bubble. They are 15-7 and 5-5 in the Big East. Their RPI is in the mid-40s. They have wins over Pitt and at Georgetown (not that it makes a difference, but that win came just three days after the Hoyas smacked Duke). While the Bulls are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50, they are 6-6 against the top 100. They have one ugly loss against Central Michigan, but that can be somewhat excused as it was their first game playing without Gus Gilchrist. Speaking of Gilchrist, the 6’10 center who was averaging 18.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg before suffering a severe high-ankle sprain is scheduled to return against either Notre Dame or Marquette. With their schedule down the stretch (they only play one game at Villanova against a team with an RPI higher than 48 and a winning record in the Big East) and Gilchrist’s pending return, if USF could get to ten Big East wins and 20 wins on the season, which may actually be shooting low, they have a very good chance at getting a bid.
• Jeremy Hazell was pulled late in Seton Hall’s loss to Villanova on Tuesday. Hazell had scored 32 points, but also had thrown up three terrible shots in a row. Bobby Gonzalez benched him with 4:06 left and the lead only at 11. Many speculated that it was the result of poor shot selection by Hazell, but Gonzo cleared it up during the Big East conference call by saying that Hazell “didn’t run back on defense” and that he did “not join his teammates in the huddle.”
• Did any team in the league have a stranger week than Georgetown? On Saturday, the Hoyas beat the snot out of Duke in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. Four days later, the Hoyas became the fourth victim in South Florida’s run. And, as you should be accustomed to by now, Chris Wright struggled in the loss and flourished in the win. He has yet to score double-digits and lose this season.
• Want another crazy prediction? Marquette is going to make the tournament. The hardest of the hard-luck losers this season (their five Big East losses have come by a total of eight points, and their three non-conference losses were by one, four, and nine points), Marquette has won three straight Big East games to get to 5-5 in the league. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, as they don’t play any of the Big East’s big four, they get Pitt at home, and play just one of their four road games against a team in the RPI top 50 (Cincy).
• Cincinnati, on the other hand, won’t make the tournament. And it isn’t due to a lack of talent as much as it is a lack of coaching. Or effort. Or something. Because in a game they needed Thursday night against Notre Dame, the Bearcats were embarrassed. Luke Harangody had 37 points and 14 boards as Cincy was outrebounded and out-toughed. By Notre Dame. Cincinnati is a team that is supposed to pride themselves on their toughness, their defense, and their board work. Notre Dame is a finesse team. It looks like the Bearcats may have given up on the season.
• Villanova’s schedule gets a whole lot tougher over the next month, starting this week. On Saturday, they head to Georgetown before going to West Virginia on Monday. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats are in third place in the conference come Tuesday. That said, going 2-0 over that stretch could all but seal a #1 seed come Selection Sunday.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Dominique Jones, South Florida

Jones went for 37 points on Sunday against Pitt and 29 points Wednesday against Georgetown. He’s averaging 35.0 ppg in the Bulls’ four-game winning streak. In those four games, he is shooting 61% from the floor and has gotten to the free throw line (…wait for it) 63 times! I think the best way to describe Jones’ game is that he attacks the rim with ruthless efficiency. He’s too strong to be defended by smaller guards, and too quick to be guarded by small forwards. He goes right almost every time he puts the ball on the floor, and yet teams are still struggling to slow him down. Up next for Jones is Notre Dame, a team that ranks 255th in defensive efficiency, far and away the worst in the Big East. Could Jones go for 50?

TEAM OF THE WEEK: West Virginia

Its really South Florida, but I’m sick of writing about the Bulls, so I’m giving West Virginia the team of the week award. The Mountaineers have gone 2-0 since you last checked in with us, beating Louisville on Saturday and knocking off Pitt in the Backyard Brawl on Wednesday. WVU has now won five straight games since they lost three of five. The biggest reason for their resurgence has been the play of Truck Bryant. Bryant was banged up earlier in the season, but has started coming on of late, playing really solid basketball. He knocks down open jumpers, he can get in the lane and draw a foul, he can create shots for his teammates, and he does so without turning the ball over. Over his last five games, Bryant is averaging 11.8 ppg, 4.8 apg, and has turned the ball over just eight times.

POWER RANKINGS

1. Villanova: 20-1, 9-0

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Seton Hall 81-71

This Week: 2/6 @ Georgetown, 2/8 @ West Virginia

2. Syracuse: 22-1, 9-1

Last Week: 1/30 @ DePaul, 2/2 vs. Providence

This Week: 2/7 @ Cincinnati, 2/10 vs. UConn

3. West Virginia: 18-3, 7-2

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Louisville 77-74, 2/3 vs. Pitt 70-51

This Week: 2/6 @ St. John’s, 2/8 vs. Villanova

4. Georgetown: 16-5, 6-4

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Duke 89-77, 2/3 vs. South Florida 64-72

This Week: 2/6 vs. Villanova, 2/9 @ Providence

5. Pitt: 16-6, 6-4

Last Week: 1/31 @ South Florida 61-70, 2/3 @ West Virginia 51-70

This Week: 2/6 vs. Seton Hall, 2/8 vs. Robert Morris

6. Louisville: 14-8, 5-4

Last Week: 1/30 vs. West Virginia 74-77, 2/1 vs. UConn 82-69

This Week: 2/6 vs. Rutgers, 2/11 @ St. John’s

7. Marquette: 14-8, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 @ UConn 70-68, 2/3 vs. DePaul 80-69

This Week: 2/6 @ Providence

8. South Florida: 15-7, 5-5

Last Week: 1/31 vs. 61-70, 2/3 @ Georgetown 72-64

This Week: 2/7 @ Notre Dame

9. Notre Dame: 16-7, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 @ Rutgers 73-74, 2/4 vs. Cincinnati 83-65

This Week: 2/7 vs. South Florida, 2/11 @ Seton Hall

10. Cincinnati: 14-8, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Providence 92-88, 2/4 @ Notre Dame 65-83

This Week: 2/7 vs. Syracuse

11. Providence:12-10, 4-6

Last Week: 1/30 @ Cincinnati 88-92, 2/2 @ Syracuse 68-85

This Week: 2/6 vs. Marquette, 2/9 vs. Georgetown

12. UConn: 13-9, 3-6

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Marquette 68-70, 2/1 @ Louisville 69-82

This Week: 2/6 vs. DePaul, 2/10 @ Syracuse

13. Seton Hall: 12-8, 3-6

Last Week: 2/2 @ Villanova 71-81

This Week: 2/6 @ Pitt, 2/11 vs. Notre Dame

14. Rutgers: 11-11, 2-8

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Notre Dame 74-73, 2/3 vs. St. John’s 84-72

This Week: 2/6 @ Louisville, 2/9 vs. Caldwell College

15. St. John’s: 12-9, 2-7

Last Week: 2/2 @ Rutgers 72-84

This Week: 2/6 vs. West Virginia, 2/11 vs. Louisville

16. DePaul: 8-14, 1-9

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Syracuse 57-59, 2/3 @ Marquette 69-80

This Week: 2/6 @ UConn

Dominique Jones is Superman.  South Florida 72, #8 Georgetown 64.  A few days after getting its best win of the year against Pittsburgh at home, South Florida outdid itself tonight with a major upset at Georgetown to move back into the middle of the pack at 5-5 in the Big East race and put the Bulls squarely into the NCAA Tournament picture.  The primary reason for the recent four-game surge, of course, has been the astounding play of guard Dominique Jones, who dropped another 29 points (plus 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals) to give him a ridiculous 140 points in the last four games (all USF wins, mind you).  Georgetown, coming off a big win versus Duke and looking ahead to a huge game this weekend against Villanova, may have found itself lacking focus, but as usual, the Hoyas’ fortunes came down to the offensive play of Chris Wright, and he was not good.  His 3-10 shooting included 0-6 from deep, and even though Greg Monroe (21/8/3 blks) and Austin Freeman produced (21 pts), it wasn’t enough for the Hoyas to survive.  Monroe was in foul trouble in the second half, which undoubtedly ended the Hoyas’ chances as soon as he left the floor.  We’d like to believe that this was a minor blip on the Hoya season exacerbated by a player hitting on all cylinders and a motivated team, but we have a feeling that Georgetown’s margin for error is just so incredibly slim because of the complete lack of quality depth.  Where’s Vernon Macklin and Jeremiah Rivers when you need them?

Backyard Brawl, Literally.  #6 West Virginia 70, #21 Pittsburgh 51.  WVU easily handled Pitt tonight in the Backyard Brawl tonight, with solid games from Da’Sean Butler (18/5) and Kevin Jones (16/6), but it was an incident late in the game with the Mountaineers up twelve that makes you wonder what the hell is in the water in Morgantown these days.  Just days after the WVU student section took heat for their uncouth behavior during the Louisville game, and barely 15-20 minutes after Bob Huggins excoriated the crowd for throwing things onto the court, someone threw a coin from the stands (see below), hitting Pitt assistant coach Tom Herrion just below the eye.  The incident that inspired the bad behavior wasn’t even all that rage-inducing, as a couple of players got tangled up when a ref got under them and everyone fell to the ground.  There certainly weren’t any punches thrown, and neither player seemed all that upset with the play.  Pitt’s hot start to the Big East season has officially come to a grinding halt with this loss (four in five games), shooting just 30% and handing out just five assists in this one.  The Panthers get Seton Hall at home prior to hosting WVU again next week — these unbalanced schedules are crazy, eh?  Final thought – WVU’s Deniz Kilicli came off the bench for nine points on 4-4 shooting in only seven minutes – what a debut for Bob Huggins’ new big man.

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The recent report from Sports by Brooks relaying information from an insider ESPN source claiming NCAA Tournament expansion to 68 or 96 teams was a “done deal” caused tremendous frustration and anxiety amongst college basketball diehard fans and followers. The complaints are numerous and completely fair: the regular season would be rendered basically meaningless, the conference tournaments utterly ruined, the NCAA tournament field watered down to the point of being a joke. Fans are irate at the thought of destroying the greatest sporting event known to man. To confirm just how ridiculous the bracket would be if the tournament expands by 31 teams, here’s the rough layout of which teams would be dancing in a hypothetical 96-team field if the season ended today:

Teams very comfortably in the field (#65-#73)

• #65: Connecticut– 13-9 (3-6), 0-5 in true road games, 2-6 vs. RPI top 50
• #66: South Carolina– 13-8 (4-3), losses to Miami and Wofford, 1-4 vs. RPI top 50
• #67: Maryland– 14-6 (4-2), best non-conf win at Indiana, 1-6 vs. RPI top 50
• #68: Wichita State– 19-4 (8-3), #164 SOS and #330 non-conf SOS, 3 losses vs. sub RPI top 100
• #69: Tulsa– 17-4 (6-1), #62 RPI and #178 SOS, 1 win vs. RPI top 100
• #70: North Carolina– 13-8 (2-4), #75 RPI, 1-6 vs. RPI top 50, only road win at NC State
• #71: Mississippi State– 16-5 (4-2), #65 RPI and #167 SOS, 3 wins vs. RPI top 100, lost to Rider
• #72: Illinois- 14-8 (6-3), #79 RPI, 2-4 vs. RPI top 50, losses to Bradley and Utah on neutral courts
• #73: William & Mary– 15-6 (7-4), four losses in CAA including UNC-Wilmington, lost 3 of 4

Teams fairly comfortably in the field (#74-#82)

• #74: Minnesota– 13-8 (4-5), #61 RPI, 3-7 vs. RPI top 100, losses to Indiana and Portland
• #75: San Diego State– 16-6 (5-3), 2-5 vs. RPI top 50, losses to Pacific and Wyoming
• #76: Virginia– 13-6 (4-2), #87 RPI and #118 SOS, losses to Penn State, Auburn, USF and Penn State
• #77: South Florida– 14-7 (4-5), #207 non-conf SOS, 1-4 vs. RPI top 50
• #78: Seton Hall– 12-8 (3-6), #174 non-conf SOS, 1-5 vs. RPI top 25, 8 losses overall
• #79: Northwestern– 15-7 (4-6), 3-7 vs. RPI top 100, #246 non-conf SOS, 6 losses in Big 10 play
• #80: Virginia Tech– 16-4 (3-3), #74 RPI and #255 SOS, #345 non-conf SOS, 0-2 vs. RPI top 50
• #81: UTEP– 15-5 (6-1), #72 RPI and #141 SOS, 1-3 vs. RPI top 50, best non-conf win at NM St.
• #82: Texas Tech– 14-7 (2-5), 0-7 vs. RPI top 50, best non-conf win vs. Wash, best conf win vs. Oklahoma

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Rob Dauster of Ballin’ is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.

With Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn all coming down to earth in the last few weeks, Syracuse and Villanova have established themselves unequivocally as the favorites in the Big East.

But who is better?

It depends on how you look at them.  Going strictly by the numbers, its Syracuse. They are first in the country in the RPI, and third according to KenPom. They’ve done so playing the fourth-most difficult schedule in the country. They won at West Virginia and handily beat Georgetown at home despite digging a 14-0 hole. They are 4-0 on the road, beat Cal and UNC in MSG early in the season, and also beat Florida in Tampa. Their sole loss on the season was to Pitt.

Their length has made their zone almost impenetrable. They deflect passes and force turnovers, and are able to convert those turnovers into points as well as anyone in the country. Offensively, they play an incredibly smart brand of basketball, rarely taking a bad or forced shot. Want proof?  They shoot, as a team, 53.4% from the floor, and have an effective field goal percentage of 59.3, second best in the country.  It makes sense that Syracuse’s name is being thrown around when talking about the Final Four and the national title. They’ve had a fantastic season.

But Villanova has been great this year as well.  In fact, they have a better record than Syracuse, as they are 8-0 in the league. They have five wins against the RPI top 50, and nine against the top 100. Their only loss is to Temple, which doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did when they were beaten. They’ve played more games (11) away from home than they have at home (10), and are 10-1 in those games. While their efficiency numbers are lower than you would expect from a team in the top five (KenPom has them at 13th), a big reason for that is their poor defensive efficiency, which is 71st in the country. But that number has been steadily climbing (they were 95th a month ago), and is made up for by a potent offensive attack.

Those numbers will only get better as Villanova continues to play at full strength. Reggie Redding, the Wildcats’ best perimeter defender, wasn’t eligible until after the Temple loss. Mouph Yarou is back from a bout of hepatitis, giving Villanova some depth in the paint.  Head-to-head, this game would be a toss-up. Villanova has shooters and penetrators in their backcourt that thrive against a zone. Syracuse has the size inside and the discipline offensively to pick apart the Wildcat defense. I don’t think I’m the only one that would say the winner of this game would be a toss-up, depending on who got hot and where the game was played.

Having said that, if I had to bet on one of these two teams to win the Big East, I would put everything I own on the Orange.  In a heartbeat.  You see, Villanova has yet to really play the meat of the Big East. In February, not only will Villanova have to play Georgetown, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati, they will have to play all five of them on the road.  Going 3-2 in that stretch would be quite an accomplishment.  And that’s not it. The Wildcats also have to UConn and West Virginia again at home. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone with a tougher schedule down the stretch than Villanova.

Syracuse doesn’t exactly play cupcakes the rest of the season. They get Louisville twice, UConn and Villanova at home, and travel to Georgetown and Cincinnati. But that is a far cry from what the Wildcats finish the season with. Its not crazy to predict the Orange to go 9-1 over their last 10 games, putting them at 16-2 in the conference.  Can Villanova match that?  The most intriguing part in all of this is that Villanova and Syracuse only play once this season, on Feb. 27th. Seeing as the winner will hold the tie-breaker if the two teams should finish the season with identical records, in all probability that game will be the de facto Big East championship game.

Think the Carrier Dome will be packed for that one?

Other News and Notes

• UConn has had a weird couple of weeks. They lost at Michigan before finding out that Jim Calhoun was going to be taking an indefinite leave of absence. They then beat St. John’s and #1 Texas at home, before looking lost in a 15-point defeat at the hands of Providence. The problem for UConn at Providence was the lack of a leader. When the Friars put a late run on the Huskies, they folded. Their offense stopped moving, they settled for contested jumpers and headlong drive into the lane, and lost all aggressiveness on the defensive end and on the glass. Could that have been different if Calhoun was on the sidelines? Who knows, but unless someone on that Husky roster becomes a leader a la AJ Price, UConn now looks headed for the NIT, while the win over Texas looks like a fluke.
• Another interesting tidbit from UConn’s last two weeks: in their loss to Michigan, the students rushed the Crisler Arena floor. When UConn beat Texas, their fans stormed the Gampel Pavilion court. But after losing to Providence, Frair fans RTC’d the Dunk. Has that ever happened before?
• In Georgetown’s 15 wins, Chris Wright is averaging 16.8 ppg as opposed to 6.5 ppg in their four losses. Pretty standard, considering Wright is one of Georgetown’s top scorers. But where it gets interesting is that Wright is averaging 6.5 apg and just 1.3 turnovers in the Hoyas’ four losses, a 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. In their 15 wins, he is averaging 3.5 apg and 2.9 t/o’s. Not exactly ideal point guard numbers. But Chris Wright isn’t exactly your prototypical point guard, and Georgetown doesn’t exactly run your prototypical offense. The Hoyas’ playmaker is Greg Monroe. The offense runs through him at the high post, which means that Wright isn’t needed to be a great distributor or facilitator as much as he’s needed to be a guy that can score. And if he’s proved anything this season, its that he certainly has that ability.
• The top five in the Big East are all, barring a collapse down the stretch, a lock to make the Dance. But after that, the question marks begin to mount.
• UConn has a win over Texas to give their resume some credibility, but after that their best “win” is probably close losses to Kentucky and Georgetown. The only reason they are in the conversation right now is the fact they’ve played the toughest schedule in the country, bolstering what is a top 30 RPI. The Huskies have a lot of work to do if they want to ensure a bid.
• Louisville is just 1-5 against the RPI top50, with that one coming against Cincinnati, who is 49th. Their best win out of conference? East Tennessee State, who is 128th. Louisville will have plenty of chances the rest of the season – they play six of their 11 games against teams in the RPI top 30.
• Cincinnati is in a little better shape than Louisville. They are 3-5 against the top 50, including a win over Vanderbilt that gets more and more impressive. They don’t really have any terrible losses, either, as their worst is a loss at St. John’s (a game they absolutely pissed away). If the Bearcats can take care of business in games they should win, their season will be decided in the final week, as they go to West Virginia, get Villanova at home, and go to Georgetown.
• Notre Dame has a lot of work to do. They lost their only top 100 nonconference matchup to Northwestern, while also losing to Loyola Marymount. Notre Dame’s biggest issue is that they don’t have the opportunities that other teams do – only two of their ten games are against the top five in the league.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK and TEAM OF THE WEEK: Dominique Jones and South Florida Bulls

For the first time in their Big East tenure, South Florida has won back-to-back games, beating Providence in overtime on Saturday before knocking off Seton Hall on Thursday night in another overtime game. I’ve been touting Dominique Jones all season long in this space, and this week he backed me up. Against Providence, Jones had the best all-around performance of the Big East season (sorry, Scottie Reynolds, but its true), as he scored 46 points (on 15-23 shooting), grabbed 10 boards, and dished out 8 assists as the Bulls overcame a 12 point deficit in the final two minutes of regulation to force the OT. Against Seton Hall, Jones scored six of his 28 points (on just 9-16 shooting) in overtime, also adding 4 boards and 3 assists. On the week, he averaged 37.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.5 apg while shooting over 60% from the floor.

POWER RANKINGS

1. Syracuse: 20-1, 7-1

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Marquette 76-71, 1/25 vs. Georgetown 73-56

Next Week: 1/30 @ DePaul, 2/2 vs. Providence

2. Villanova: 19-1, 8-0

Last Week: 1/23 @ St. John’s 81-71, 1/27 vs. Notre Dame 90-72

Next Week: 2/2 vs. Seton Hall

3. West Virginia: 16-3, 5-2

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Ohio State 71-65, 1/26 @ DePaul 62-46

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Louisville, 2/3 vs. Pitt

4. Georgetown: 16-4, 6-3

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Rutgers 94-68, 1/25 @ Syracuse 56-73

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Duke, 2/3 vs. USF

5. Pitt: 16-4, 6-2

Last Week: 1/24 @ Seton Hall 61-64, 1/28 vs. St. John’s

Next Week: 1/31 @ USF, 2/3 @ West Virginia

6. Louisville: 13-7, 4-3

Last Week: 1/24 vs. Cincinnati 68-60

Next Week: 1/30 @ West Virginia, 2/1 vs. UConn

7. Cincinnati: 13-7, 4-4

Last Week: 1/24 @ Louisville 60-68

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Providence, 2/4 @ Notre Dame

8. Notre Dame: 15-6, 4-4

Last Week: 1/23 vs. DePaul 87-77, 1/27 @ Villanova 72-90

Next Week: 1/30 @ Rutgers, 2/4 vs. Cincinnati

9. UConn: 13-7, 3-4

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Texas 88-74, 1/27 @ Providence 66-81

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Marquette, 2/1 @ Louisville

10. Marquette: 12-8, 3-5

Last Week: 1/23 @ Syracuse 76-71, 1/26 vs. Rutgers 82-59

Next Week: 1/30 @ UConn, 2/3 vs. DePaul

11. South Florida: 13-7, 3-5

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Providence 109-105 OT, 1/28 vs. Seton Hall 76-74 OT

Next Week: 1/31 vs. Pitt, 2/3 vs. Georgetown

12. Seton Hall: 12-7, 3-5

Last Week: 1/24 vs. Pitt 64-61, 1/28 @ South Florida 74-76 OT

Next Week: 2/2 @ Villanova

13. Providence: 12-8, 4-4

Last Week: 1/23 vs. South Florida 105-109 OT, 1/27 vs. UConn 81-66

Next Week: 1/30 @ Cincinnati, 2/2 @ Syracuse

14. St. John’s: 12-8, 2-6

Last Week: 1/23 vs. Villanova 71-81, 1/28 @ Pitt 53-63

Next Week: 2/2 @ Rutgers

15. DePaul: 8-12, 1-7

Last Week: 1/23 @ Notre Dame 77-87, 1/26 vs. West Virginia 46-62

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Syracuse, 2/3 @ Marquette

16. Rutgers: 9-11, 0-8

Last Week: 1/23 @ Georgetown 63-88, 1/26 @ Marquette 59-82

Next Week: 1/30 vs. Notre Dame, 2/2 vs. St. John’s