We were off the grid last weekend, which figures, because for all intents and purposes the college hoops season got under way while we were gone.  What are we talking about?  Upset Saturday, baby.

A couple weeks ago we pointed out that this season to date has been boring uninspiring due largely to the complete lack of upsets among the top teams.  No more.  Last weekend the carnage in the Top 25 was significant, as nine ranked teams (incl. 3 of the top 10) took a loss.  The most shocking were the twin home losses of #2 UNC and #4 UCLA to unranked conference rivals Maryland and USC, respectively.  Throw in last night’s loss by #7 Tennessee at Kentucky, and we’re starting to see a trend here.

But we shouldn’t be too shocked.   Conference play is tough, no matter who you are or where you’re ranked.  And now that we’re heading into late January, some teams that may have looked like complete garbage a month or more ago are starting to show signs that there was a larger plan after all.  In addition to the Terps and Trojans, take a bow, UConn, K-State, Kentucky and Cincinnati.  Meanwhile, some other teams that looked like worldbeaters in December are now starting to exhibit some mental and/or physical fatigue.  UNC, Texas A&M, Marquette and Ole Miss fall into this category.

Let’s Strap In and Enjoy the Ride.  

We watched the good weekend games on Tivo last night, and what really struck us as impressive was the level of intensity being played by teams on both ends of the court.  For example, we’ve seen Maryland play a handful of times this year, and the Terps have typically looked like they’d rather be somewhere else.  Not Saturday – Maryland may have come into Chapel Hill with a record of 11-7 and a loss to American on its resume, but they played every second of the game as if they belonged on the same court with the unbeaten Heels.  At Florida, the bloody carcass known as Kentucky may have come into Gainesville with a record of 0-3 on the road, but they played as if Chuck Hayes and Tayshaun Prince were once again taking it to Anthony Roberson and Matt Walsh (in other words, hard).  To keep the analogy going, USC may have been a meager 1-3 in the Pac-10, but their HS all-americans played as if they were talking smack and running with the older but slower UCLA guys on the Santa Monica courts.

What all this means is that we’re hitting the last third of the season, and teams are, as usual, finding life in conference play to be tough.  For most of the Top 25, there will be far fewer easy victories than before; for the teams that struggled through the first half, seasons can be saved with a few key victories at the right time.  Everyone who follows college hoops rightly loves March for its wild and unpredictable nature, but we shouldn’t sleep on the next six weeks either.  The end of January and all of February is where the seeds of March Madness are sown.  Let’s all strap in and enjoy the ride…

We’d originally hoped to track this better than we have throughout the pre-conference slate, but sometimes life gets in the way. A little over a month ago, we noted that the ACC and Pac-10 were leading the early charge with several marquee wins over the other BCS conferences. How has that changed in the interim?

Data Source: www.basketballstate.com

Thoughts:

• The Pac-10 and ACC continue to lead the way, showing 1-2 in overall winning pct., with the ACC earning a commanding record against other BCS conferences (28-14), while every other league has struggled to reach .500. Most impressively, the ACC has a winning record against every other league but the Pac-10 so far this season (1-1). The Pac-10 has only lost eight games against mid- and low-major teams thus far. This comports with the RPI and Sagarin computer rankings, which has these two leagues in the top three in both measurements.
• Overall, the SEC has proven to be a joke thus far. Sure, the league can beat the low-majors (it certainly plays enough of them), but a 13-20 record against the other BCS conferences shows that this league just isn’t very good this year. It currently holds only one winning record against a BCS opponent – 5-4 versus the Big East.
• The other three leagues – Big 10, Big 12, Big East – all have shown to be various grades of average. The Big 12 has the advantage over the other two at this point, with its 21-20 record against the other leagues, but it tends to lose more often to mid-majors than the others.
• Quick rankings based on solely this measure: 1) ACC (h2h record is impressive); 2) Pac-10 (only loses to BCS teams); 3) Big 12 (generally good across the board); 4) Big East (more teams = more bad teams to bring it down); 5) Big 10 (sigh… 3-10 v. the ACC, again); 6) SEC (may not be better than the MVC or A10 this year).

Marquee Win to date –

• ACC – Duke 77, Marquette 73.
• Big East – Pittsburgh 65, Duke 64.
• Big 10 – Michigan St. 78, Texas 72.
  
• Big 12 – Texas 63, UCLA 61.
  
• Pac-10 – UCLA 68, Michigan St. 63.
  
• SEC – Ole Miss 85, Clemson 82.
  

Ugliest Loss to date –

• ACC – American 67, Maryland 59.
  
• Big East – Dayton 70, Louisville 65.
  
• Big 10 – Wofford 69, Purdue 66.
• Big 12 – Stephen F. Austin 66, Oklahoma 62.
• Pac-10 – Mercer 96, USC 81.
• SEC – Gardner-Webb 84, Kentucky 68

11.30.07

Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.  Two games tonight, and the Big 12 finally got one.  #7 Washington St. 67, Baylor 64.  We had a sneaky feeling that this would end up being a tremendous game, and we were spot on with that call.  Baylor’s home crowd inspired the Bears to a 12-pt halftime lead, but Wazzu hung in there and used Derrick Low’s heroics to finally catch up and take the lead for good in the last three minutes.  Despite an overall rough game for him, Low (9/3) hit two threes in a row late in the second half to give WSU the lead for good.    Robbie Cowgill picked it up for him with 18/5.  Scott Drew’s Baylor squad is definitely a team to watch out for in the Big 12 this year.   Iowa St. 71, Oregon St. 64.  Explain to us how this game was chosen for ESPN FC, while the game involving a top ten team was relegated to ESPNU.  Right.  Anyway, these two teams pretty much suck, and the  only reason we tuned it in the first place was to catch a glimpse of OSU’s CJ Giles before we remembered that he’s not eligible yet.  

Other Ranked Teams.

• #12 Tennessee 98, UL-Lafayette 70. Tyler Smith with 22/7/8 assts.  Lofton only 7 pts tonight. 
  
• #14 Marquette 100, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 65.  Jerel McNeal had 16/10 assts and Lazar Hayward had 19/11 in the blowout win.

Other Scores of Note.

• Florida 86, Vermont 61.  Gator freshmen had 55 of their 86 pts tonight.
  

On Tap Saturday (all times EST).   Huge day of hoops as December arrives right on time.

• Duke (-8) v. Davidson (ESPNU) 12pm – Davidson gets its second shot in Charlotte at pulling the big upset.
• Vanderbilt (-6) v. Georgia Tech (ESPN FC) 1pm.  great SEC-ACC matchup – will Vandy be tired from its 2OT game on Thurs?
• West Virginia (NL) v. Winthrop 1pm – another winnable road game for Winthrop.
• North Carolina (-6.5) v. Kentucky (ESPN2) 2pm – UK’s first real opponent of the year.
  
• Louisville (-12) v. Miami (OH) (ESPN FC) 2pm – Charlie Coles’ Redhawks with yet another FC game.
• Arkansas (NL) v. Oral Roberts  3pm – tough home game for the Hawgs.
• Connecticut (-4.5) v. Gonzaga (ESPN) 3:30pm – Zags coming off tough game in Philly two nights ago.
  
• Clemson (-7.5) v. South Carolina (FSNS)4pm – is there an ACC/SEC Challenge today?
• Michigan (-9) v. Harvard (ESPNU) 5:30pm – how rich is this one now that Amaker is coaching at Harvard?
• Oklahoma St. (-3) v. Washington  (ESPN) 5:30pm – UW needs to win this game to get a look as an at-large in March.
• Boston College (-1.5) v. Providence (ESPN Classic)  6pm – BC could be better than everyone expected this year.
• St. Mary’s (-9) v. Seton Hall 7pm- interesting matchup of unbeatens.
  
• Xavier (NL) v. Belmont (FSNC) 7pm – BU tries to get the sweep of Cincy schools.
• Butler (-6) v. Ohio St. (ESPNU) 7:30pm – a rare home game for Butler versus a B10 team.
• S. Illinois (-2.5) v. Indiana (ESPNU) 9:30pm – see above – hopefully SIU will play better in this one than they did vs. USC last week.
• California (-2) v. Missouri (FSN) 11pm – worth staying up late to see this Big 12/Pac-10 matchup.

What a week. So we’re a little late on this week’s blogpoll, among several other things, but we’re slowly getting caught up and feel that this week’s poll is the first one that accurately captures how teams are playing several weeks into the season. We’ve had a chance to watch most of the teams in the poll ourselves, and our illustrious blogging brethren have ostensibly done likewise. So here’s Week 3 (blogger ballots located here)…

Note: blogpoll does not include 11/27-28 games.

Justifying Our Ballot. We still rank UCLA #1 and UNC #2 ahead of overall #1 Memphis simply based on the fact that we believe UCLA and UNC have beaten better teams than Memphis thus far. Memphis looked solid in CvC wins versus Oklahoma and UConn, but those teams are probably mid-conference finishers this year. UCLA has a marquee win (w/o Darren Collison) against #13 Michigan St., a team that is better than we thought; and UNC has solid wins over likely NCAA teams Davidson, Old Dominion and #20 BYU (w/o Ty Lawson). Memphis will have an opportunity this weekend to improve its standing in our eyes with a win vs. #25 USC. Like everyone else, we raised #9 Texas A&M and #6 Duke on the strength of their wins in the PNIT and Maui, respectively, and #8 Texas got a nod into the top ten by virtue of its destruction of #12 Tennessee. In the lower reaches of the top 25, we still refuse to vote for #18 Clemson despite their win at Mississippi St. We’ve been down this road before with them, and if the Tigers are 14-0 going into the game vs. UNC on January 6, then we’ll consider it. We also left BYU, Miami (FL), and USC off of our ballot, figuring that Stanford, Ohio St., Wisconsin and Baylor had put together better resumes to this point. After the ACC/Big 10 meetings the last two nights, we’re really questioning our sanity on those two midwestern teams above.

Uncertainty. We’re still seeing blogger indecisiveness when it comes to Indiana and Michigan St., but some new additions at the low range of the top 25 populate our list this week. Here are the top five most uncertain teams (remember, a high std dev means greater variation in blogger rankings of that team):

• Indiana (std dev = 6.43; range = 10 to nr)
• Pittsburgh (6.39; 8 to nr)
• Clemson (5.74; 11 to nr)
• BYU (5.44; 13 to nr)
• Michigan St. (4.83; 8 to 21)

The top seven teams in the blogpoll are also the top seven lowest standard deviation this week.

Conference Call.

• Big East – 5
• ACC & Pac-10 – 4
• Big 12 – 3
• Big 10 – 2
• Atlantic 10 , CUSA, Horizon, MVC, Mtn West, SEC, WCC – 1

Wow, the SEC is really struggling right now, with only one team ranked (Tennessee) and that squad getting its doors blown off by Texas last week. The ACC only has four ranked teams, but leads all conferences with 6 of the 31 remaining unbeaten teams in D1. Impressive that half of that league is still flawless. Other BCS unbeatens: (Big East & Big 12 – 4 each; Pac-10 – 3; SEC – 1; Big 10 – 0).

11.25.07

Game of the Day. #4 Kansas 76, Arizona 72. The four-days-early game between Kansas and Arizona in the inaugural Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series was everything a college hoops fan could have hoped for in such a meeting between two powerhouse programs. It had stars making plays (Budinger and Rush), tightness throughout (no team had a greater than 4-pt lead in the second half), a tantalizingly close halfcourt buzzer-beater, and an overtime just to fuel the early season intensity. Our thoughts: 1) Brandon Rush (17/8) looks great for a guy who blew out his ACL a mere six months ago. He hit his first shot off the bench, took care of the ball, made both of his threes, and even threw down a couple of dunks in the OT to seal things. 2) Arizona showed a toughness we haven’t seen in a while. After getting down ten early (22-12), we expected the Wildcats to pack it in and take their 20+ pt beating while the Phog was rocking – but that didn’t happen. Instead, Arizona clawed back to tie the game at halftime, and led the game deep into the second half. We’re not sure that happens last year. 3) Chase Budinger’s (27/6) potential is mesmerizing – he always seems to be playing better than he actually is playing. For example, he hit six threes tonight, but only shot 10-23 from the field. 4) Arizona may be playing tougher, but they’re still playing dumb with the ball. 25 turnovers (14 by their starting guards) at Allen FH won’t cut it – given that stat, it’s amazing they had a chance to win the game in regulation. 5) Kansas is just scary when it comes to the talent they can put on the court. No surprise there, but this is a 30+ win team that could win the national title if things break right for them.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.442110&w=425&h=350&fv=]

Other Games We Saw. NC State 69, #25 Villanova 68. The finals of the Old Spice Classic championship was another close game with a particularly insane ending. After battling toe-to-toe for most of the game (the biggest lead by either team was 7 pts), it appeared that Villanova was going to take the prize when Dante Cunningham tipped in a missed shot with 2.2 seconds remaining to give Nova a 1-pt lead. NC State then passed the ball length-of-the-court to Gavin Grant, who stepped behind the three-point line and was fouled in a ticky-tack call on the shot attempt by Cunningham with 0.4 seconds on the clock. Grant made two of three to put NCSU up by one, so it was then Villanova’s turn to throw the ball to the other end in hopes of a miracle. And they damn near got it – knowing they only had time for a tip, Villanova made two tips at the basket (the second attempt was very close and got off before the red light illuminated, according to our Tivo slo-mo) and neither dropped. Still, it was an exciting ending to a competitive game. Courtney Fells led the way for NCSU with 21, but it was a balanced attack from the Wolfpack (Grant & Hickson – 15 each; McCauley – 10) that led to the win. Villanova was paced by freshman Corey Fisher’s 21 pts, but special notoriety should go to Casiem Drummond, who with 17 rebounds singlehandedly kept numerous possessions alive for the Wildcats.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.442108&w=425&h=350&fv=session%3Dfsp_166%26domain%3Despn%26fspRoot%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmotion%2Ffsp%2FFSPRoot%26bgColor%3DECECEC%26bgImage%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmotion%2Ffsp%2FFSPRoot%2Fespnbg_playbtn.swf%3Fimg%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2007%2F1125%2Fhu_071125ncb_ncstate.jpg%2526showbutton%3Dtrue%2526buttonx%3D82%2526buttony%3D5%26playlistURL%3Dfalse%26playlistViewer%3Dfalse%26playlistParser%3Dfalse%26adType%3Dfalse%26adPauseEnabled%3Dtrue]

USC 70, #18 S. Illinois 45. This game completely shocked us – not just the result but the margin of victory (SIU’s worst loss in seven years). The usually disciplined Salukis couldn’t get anything to drop (eFG% = 38%), while the Men of Troy, led by Davon Jefferson (20/5), simply could not miss (eFG% = 65%). We’d watched two or three USC games already this year, and each time they looked uninterested, umotivated and overall underwhelming. Not tonight. Perhaps it had something to do with OJ Mayo’s benching (for what reason, Tim Floyd?), but the takeaway is that USC outclassed a reliably good team in every possible way tonight. Randal Falker is the only player who showed up for SIU, producing 17/12 for his efforts.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.442109&w=425&h=350&fv=session%3Dfsp_282%26domain%3Despn%26fspRoot%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmotion%2Ffsp%2FFSPRoot%26bgColor%3DECECEC%26bgImage%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmotion%2Ffsp%2FFSPRoot%2Fespnbg_playbtn.swf%3Fimg%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fassets.espn.go.com%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2007%2F1125%2Fmayo.jpg%2526showbutton%3Dtrue%2526buttonx%3D82%2526buttony%3D5%26playlistURL%3Dfalse%26playlistViewer%3Dfalse%26playlistParser%3Dfalse%26adType%3Dfalse%26adPauseEnabled%3Dtrue]

Other Ranked Teams.

• #8 Washington St. 71, Air Force 62. Wazzu guards combine for 46/15/13 assts.
  
• #10 Duke 78, Eastern Kentucky 43. Where did Taylor King (27 pts) come from?
• #19 Kansas St. 82, Rider 69. Jason Thompson of Rider (24/7/3 assts/4 blks) outplayed Michael Beastley (13/10) in this one.
  

Other Scores of Note.

• UCF 70, Penn St. 59. Another horrid loss for the Big 10, thanks to our friends in State College.
• Missouri St. 73, Winthrop 69. Hard to believe that Winthrop would blow a 16-pt halftime lead at home (24 game winning streak), but they did.
• George Mason 69, South Carolina 68. Mason picks up more major conference pelts as Will Thomas dominated SC inside (22/11).
• Miami (OH) 67, Mississippi St. 60. Does MSU have any other players besides Jamont Gordon and Charles Rhodes?

On Tap Tonight (all times EST). Big 10/ACC gets started in Iowa City, but not much else on the slate for Monday.

• Wake Forest (-2) v. Iowa (ESPN2) 7pm – hard to believe Wake could be favored on the road just about anywhere.
• Davidson (-3.5) v. Appalachian St. 7pm. this is a key SoCon game – why so early?
• Connecticut (NL) v. Florida A&M (ESPN FC) 7pm – already tired of UConn.
• Washington (-22.5) v. Long Beach State 10:30pm – which UW will show up?

11.21.07

Game of the Day. #10 Duke 77 #12 Marquette 73. There were several games we were looking forward to watching today, but truthfully this was the only game that stepped up to the plate and delivered an interesting result as Duke won its fourth Maui Invitational. We continue to be impressed by what Duke is accomplishing without any semblance of an inside presence. Literally, none. Everything they get is off the drive or off the jumper. Luckily for them, the Devils have the right mix of slashers and shooters to make that work. The long-term problem that Duke will ultimately face is what happens when they have to stare down a team with talented bigs as well as guards. In the Maui, Illinois had nice bigs but weak guard play. Marquette was the polar opposite – fantastic guards, but nothing inside. Duke can ride this strategy to a really nice season (as usual), but we don’t really see them making noise deep into March because of that fundamental weakness. Are we wrong about this? As for tonight’s game, it was fun to watch a close one but we never really believed Marquette would/could clutch this game away from Duke. Too many poor decisions with the ball, missed layups and fouls (some of which, of course, were dubious). Kyle Singler (25/7) led Duke with another great game, and Demarcus Nelson (16/7) had a nice game as well, but our takeaway tonight comes from the Marquette side. Why is it every time we watch MU we end up feeling like Jerel McNeal (11/2 on 4-7 shooting) and Wes Matthews (12/4 on 4-7 shooting) are better than the much-publicized Dominic James (12/6 on 4-16 shooting)? Just a thought. Final take – Duke and Marquette are good teams, but both have such a major fundamental flaw in the lack of any respectable inside game that their long-term prospects seem no better than the Sweet 16 this year.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.441587&w=425&h=350&fv=]

Other Games We Saw. Ohio St. 79, #22 Syracuse 65. This game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. We have to hand it again to Thad Matta – he gets his personnel to play hard and under control. Which is more than we can say for Jim Boeheim’s team tonight. While both teams are using several freshmen, it was OSU that looked far more poised. OSU’s Kosta Koufos (24/9) seemed unstoppable at times, showing three-point range on his jumper and a variety of bank shots and short Js in the paint. We may have severely underestimated this guy – if Duke had him, they would probably be F4-bound this year. Jamar Butler also hit several threes at opportune moments to keep Syracuse from ever getting a serious run mounted in the second half. The sole bright spot for the Cuse was from jumping jack rookie Donte Greene (21/10), but his classmate Jonny Flynn was simply horrid, putting up an 0-6 zero-pt night. What has happened to Flynn since his initial 28-pt explosion against Siena? After starting the year 10-13, he’s gone 4-19 since. #6 Louisville 68, UNLV 48. We had high hopes for this game as well, but it turned out to be a very ugly contest. Still, breaking a team’s 19-game winning streak at home is no joke, and the Cards (using only 8 scholarship players) should be commended for the convincing win. UNLV (eFG% = 30%) couldn’t find the basket with both hands tonight, and Louisville spent much of the game in the same Vegas Strip-induced fog. Earl Clark stepped up for the Cards with a dub-dub (16/13) and Terrence Williams did his usual thing (9/5/6 assts), and that was pretty much all they needed. We’re hopeful that the UL games coming up this weekend in Vegas will be a little more exciting. #16 Texas A&M 77, Washington 63. This was another game we had circled that didn’t really come through. UW looked lethargic and uninterested while Texas A&M methodically went about its business in winning the game. What is it about Pac-10 teams playing away from home so far this year – with the exception of UCLA, they all look terrible. Jon Brockman (21/15) was solid for Washington in the loss, but the props should go to the Texas A&M guards Dominique Kirk and Donald Sloan who combined for 33/6/6 assts while harassing the UW guards into a poor shooting night. Mark Turgeon is a great coach, so it should be no surprise that TAMU’s program remains strong after Billy Gillispie’s departure. Ohio St. and Texas A&M will meet in the PNIT finals.

Upset of the Night. Western Michigan 83, #21 Davidson 76. When is an upset not really an upset – how about this game? Davidson is ranked, but was favored by a mere 4 pts with good reason. W. Michigan is one of the leading contenders for the MAC title this year. In this game, WMU basically just shot the lights out, with an eFG% of 73% (v. 52% for Davidson). They hit 63% from two-point range and 55% (12-22) from three, as all five starters had double figures. For Davidson, Stephen Curry did his best to keep the Wildcats in the game as he had 25 pts (incl. 5 threes), but his only help came from backcourt mate Jason Richards (23/3/8 assts). While this loss may cause pollster consternation because WMU is a no-name opponent, we’re not ready to buy into that just yet. WMU is a good team and they were playing at home, but we still believe that Davidson can compete with (and beat) one or two of the remaining three biggies on its schedule (NC State or Duke, but not UCLA).

Other Ranked Teams.

• #4 Kansas 87, N. Arizona 46. Darrell Arthur led the way with 17/6 in the blowout.
  
• #5 Georgetown 57, Ball St. 48. Very surprised JT3 didn’t pour it on in this game.
• #17 Butler 79, Michigan 65. Started to watch, but got sleepy…
• #24 Clemson 74, Presbyterian 57. Clemson off to its usual unbeaten Nov/Dec.

Other Scores of Note.

• Arizona St. 87, LSU 84. It’s so hard to sit back and watch good talent wasted (ahem, LSU).
  
• Illinois 65, Oklahoma St. 49. The Illini are going to be their typical difficult selves this year.
• Chaminade 74, Princeton 70. You go, Silverswords!
• #24 Clemson 74, Presbyterian 57. Clemson off to its usual unbeaten Nov/Dec.

On Tap Today (all times EST). The Thanksgiving holiday isn’t a hoops day, so there are only ten games on tap, but wow, we get Beastley and Mayo late-night as we’re coming out of our food coma…

• South Carolina (-2.5) v. Penn St. (ESPN2) 12pm – two hapless teams searching for a respectable win in the Old Spice Classic.
  
• Mississippi St. (-10.5) v. UC Irvine (ESPNU) 2pm – MSU cannot afford to lose this game in UCI’s back yard (Anaheim).
• NC State (-13.5) v. Rider (ESPN2) 2pm – NC State gets a chance to recover from the UNO loss.
• S. Illinois (-16) v. Chattanooga (ESPNU) 4pm – our first television look at SIU this year.
• Villanova (-6.5) v. Central Florida (ESPN2) 7pm – the game is in Orlando; will anyone be there?
• Kansas St. (-2) v. George Mason (ESPN2) 9pm – not only is it our first look at Beastley, it’s also a great matchup!
• Miami (OH) (-3) v. South Alabama (ESPNU) 9:30pm – won’t be watching this one much.
• Gonzaga (-6) v. W. Kentucky (ESPNU) 11:30pm – a tremendous matchup in the Great Alaska.
• USC (-13) v. San Diego (ESPN2) 11:30pm – conveniently timed post-Beastley and with our second turkey sandwich.
  

Happy Thanksgiving Day everyone!

Today marks two weeks from the start of the season, so we thought it would be an appropriate time to take a look at how the BCS conferences have done thus far against each other as well as the mids and lows. There’s not a lot of data available yet, but already we’re starting to see a little separation amongst the top conferences. It’ll be interesting to track this throughout the preconference schedule to see if it holds up. With the Maui, NIT and various conference challenges kicking off soon, this could change in a hurry.

Data Source: www.basketballstate.com

Thoughts:

• So far, and we realize this is super early, the ACC and Pac-10 have led the way, going 10-2 (ACC) and 9-2 (Pac-10) against BCS and mid-major opponents. The other four are roughly .500 (Big East – 9-7; Big 10 – 3-3; Big 12 – 5-4; SEC – 4-4).
• The Big 10 has the best early record at 20-3 (.870), but is only 1-3 against other BCS schools.
• The SEC needs to protect home court better – two of its three losses against other BCS opponents (and three of the overall five) were at home.

Marquee Wins (best overall win in bold) –

• ACC – Virginia 75, Arizona 72; Clemson 84, Mississippi St. 82 (both on the road)
• Big East – Providence 67, Arkansas 51
• Big 10 -none
• Big 12 – none
• Pac-10 – none
• SEC – Arkansas 70, VCU 60

Ugly Losses (worst overall loss in bold) –

• ACC – UNC-Greensboro 83, Ga Tech 74; Cleveland St. 69, Florida St. 66
• Big East – Buffalo 76, S. Florida 69; Bowling Green 69, Cincinnati 67
• Big 10 – Georgetown 74, Michigan 52 (the margin, not the result)
• Big 12 – Sam Houston St. 56, Texas Tech 54; N. Texas 82, Oklahoma St. 73
• Pac-10 – Mercer 96, USC 81; Siena 79, Stanford 67
• SEC – Gardner-Webb 84, Kentucky 68; Tulane 77, Auburn 62

11.17.07

Story of the Day. Siena 79, Stanford 67. We should have known better. Really, we should have. As soon as we started thinking that Stanford was a legit power again, given the way they mowed through their first four opponents with ease (without Brook Lopez, remember), they go and drop a game at Siena. For chrissakes, we even put the Cardinal #12 in our latest blogpoll ballot. This continues a disturbing trend of Trent Johnson teams to inexplicably drop ugly pre-conference games to a mid-major or worse (last year: Air force by 34; Santa Clara by 16; two years ago: Montana by 19, UC Davis by 6). Ugh. So what happened today? The 1pm EST start time probably didn’t help the Cardinal, but the time-change excuse only goes so far (they played and won in Chicago on Thurs. night). It appears from the stats that poor shooting (37%), especially from lead guard Anthony Goods (2-12) contributed, but an insane 32 to 3 FT attempt disparity suggests a little home cookin’ and/or aggressiveness in favor of the home team. In any case, it’s yet another reason to wonder whether the Cardinal under TJ will ever have the toughness to gut out games like this outside of Pac-10 arenas (in Johnson’s tenure, Stanford typically does fine in the Pac-10 schedule then flames out badly in March). The positive takeaway from this game is that we believe this is the first RTC of the new season. Enjoy.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.440866&w=425&h=350&fv=gatewayUrl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fplayer.clipsyndicate.com%2Fweborb%26channel_id%3D68998%26ses_id%3D7220573%26ip_addr%3D68.84.197.177]

Other Games Today. Louisville 104, Hartford 69. Terrence Williams was astonishing tonight in Louisville’s opening game. He put up a trip-dub (14/12/13 assts, barely missing the quad-dub with 8 turnovers) as the Cardinals tallied seven players in double figures and made a school-record 22 threes (with just 13 misses). It’s just the first game, we realize, but Louisville appears to have all the pieces in place to make a phenomenal run this year, so long as they can avoid their annual bugaboo of injuries. We can’t wait for that matchup with Carolina later this month in the LV Invitational (assuming the Heels can handle ODU). Virginia 75, Arizona 72. In another tough loss today for the Pac-10, Virginia went into Tucson and delivered another blow to the aura of invincibility of the McKale Center, handing Arizona its fifth loss in the last seven games there. Sean Singletary led the way for the Wahoos (24/8 assts) while battling flu-like symptoms, and it was his jumper with 39 seconds left that was the clincher. This and the Stanford upset really hurt the Pac-10’s early-season cred as the best conference. George Mason 67, Dayton 56. This is the kind of win the committee will want to see on GMU’s resume next March. Will Thomas had a nasty game (18/17) and the team as a whole went 21-21 from the line. Florida 88, Rutgers 63. The Gators continue to look impressive at home, but then again, so did Stanford until today. Mareese Speights had 18/12 in the blowout win over a bottom-feeder Big East team. USC 85, South Carolina 75. Speaking of bottom-feeders, South Carolina got Hackett-ed by USC, as the non-OJ Mayo guard for the Trojans had a trip-dub as well (22/10/10 assts). No word on whether OJ wanted to deck him again (he had 29/4/4 assts, btw). The Dave Odom death knell watch continues…

Other Upsets. Cleveland St. 69, Florida St. 66. Well, it wasn’t all peachy for the ACC today. FSU resurrected its bad habit of losing to bad teams. Amazingly, that’s only the second nonconference loss for the ACC so far this year (23-2). Monmouth 59, Wichita St. 50. Gregg Marshall’s start at Wichita hasn’t been very promising thus far (1-2 with the other loss to Baylor). Alaska-Fairbanks 62, Oregon St. 60. And we save the best upset of the day for last – another Pac-10 team losing, but this is worse because the Beavers were beaten by a D2 team – the host of the Top of the World Classic. How utterly embarrassing.

Ranked Teams.
#9 Oregon 86, Portland 61. Hairston (24), Leunen (17) & Porter (15) roll.
#15 Gonzaga 84, UC Riverside 48. Zags continue to dominate w/o Heytvelt.
#24 S. Illinois 88, N. Illinois 68. Only 7 for Falker and still no problem.

Line of the Night. Michael Beasley (Kansas St.). Let’s just start penciling him in here every time he plays. 28/22 in a 13-pt win over W. Illinois.

On Tap Today (all times EST). A light Sunday schedule, but we really have our eyes on that 5pm game.

• Louisville (NL) v. Jackson St. (ESPN FC) 1:30pm – can UL be as impressive as today?
  
• Charleston (NL) v. Houston (ESPNU) 1:30pm – interesting early afternoon game.
• Clemson (-12.5) v. Old Dominion 2pm – upset alert! Clemson could be looking past ODU here after its win v. Miss St.
• Villanova (NL) v. Bucknell 5pm – Jay Wright goes up against his old team.
• Arkansas (-7.5) v. VCU (ESPNU) 5pm – best game of the day – Maynor v. Beverly.
• Georgia Tech (-3) v. Winthrop 6pm – upset alert! Ga Tech is so hit-and-miss these days.
• UNC (-34) v. Iona (ESPNU) 6pm – this game could get extremely ugly.
• Miami (FL) (-1) v. Providence (ESPN2) 7:30pm – championship of PR Shootout.
  

Another week full of information to catch up on…

• Lute Olson is taking a leave of absence (not medically related) from Arizona (see video below). Asst. Coach Kevin O’Neill will take over during the interim (update: UA isn’t looking very good during its exhibition game vs. Concordia today).
• This is a very cool map of every D1 school – did you know there’s only one D1 school in Minnesota? We didn’t either. (h/t to Meaningful Collateral)
• Post Game Heroes breaks down the College Hoops 2K8 Sports player ratings (nice to see Bo McCalebb (#3 SG) and Kyle Hines (#2 PF) getting their due). EA Sports NCAA08 March Madness also lists its top 25 teams.
• Did you know that Davidson is playing at Texas today? Yep, a closed scrimmage. We’ll see if we can find a report of this game later.
• Everyone’s favorite play-in game is now worth the same amount as any other first round game.
• MTD plugged a college coaching simulation game that really sounds interesting – once we figure out how to quit our job and watch hoops all day manage our time more effectively, we’re all in.
• NCAA Hoops Today gives a sweet rundown of upcoming games on the tube.
• After whiffing on Greg Monroe, Duke got a commitment from Elliott Williams, a shooting guard from the Memphis area. Oh, and Duke’s three football fans were miffed when Coach K scheduled a scrimmage at the same time as their game vs. FSU last weekend.
• It turns out the college hoops fans are the most superstitious of all. Now excuse us while we arrange our chair just so in front of the tv.
• Injuries, Suspensions, Returns –
  • Washington three-point specialist Ryan Appleby broke his thumb and will miss 6 weeks.
  • UCLA guard Michael Roll tore the plantar fascia in his foot and will be out 3-5 weeks.
  • Sticking in the Pac-10, USC is battered and beat up.
  • Marquette’s Trevor Mbakwe is out for the season with a knee injury.
  • Wisconsin’s Michael Flowers has returned from a two-week leave of absence.
  • Auburn top returning scorer and rebounder Josh Dollard will miss the season for medical reasons.
  • Tennessee forward Duke Crews was allowed back on the team from his month-long suspension. His buddy Wayne Chism, however, was taken to the hospital with a concussion last week.
• Season Preview Materials –
  • In case you’re just tuning in…
  • Here are Jeff Goodman’s preseason all-americans. Here are MSN’s.
  • Here are some off the radar players to know.
  • M2M asks whether we should trust Vegas’s predictions. (answer: no).
  • Dan Hanner takes a unique look at doing a season preview through computer modeling (most interesting observation to us – Kentucky over Tennessee for the SEC title).
  • A non-blogpoll Top 25: Eric Byrnes Tries Hard (UT #1?).
  • MTD gives its F4 sleepers.
  • Gary Parrish previews: WCC, CAA, Mountain West, WAC, CUSA, A10, MVC, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Pac-10.

[vodpod id=ExternalVideo.438249&w=425&h=350&fv=]

Per ESPN today…

Initial reactions:

• UNC is #1, yet UCLA garnered more first-place votes (12-10).
• 9 of the top 10 match the online Blogpoll – the one difference is that coaches like Indiana more than Marquette. Fwiw, so do we. (come on blogpollers! We should represent the non-MSM contrarian voice!)
• Did the coaches go with the “name” programs over Calipari’s squad at #1? Interesting that the bloggers voted Memphis a solid #1 while UNC/UCLA were left behind.
• Only one coach agreed with us that Kansas is preseason #1 (Bill Self?), although we aren’t predicting KU to win it all.
• Buy: Oregon (mighty mite Tajuan Porter!), Gonzaga (magic mushroomania), Texas (hey mr. DJ put that record on…), S. Illinois (you sexy mother Falker!), Davidson (spicy Curry), VCU (Eric Maynor alone is worth more than five votes).
• Sell: Duke (anxiously awaiting the Brian Zoubek experiment), USC (Young+Pruitt > Mayo+Jefferson), NC State (folks, they were 5-11 in the ACC last year!!), Alabama (no Steele = no chance).
• Conference breakdown (top 25, all 54 teams receiving votes): Pac-10 (6, 8), Big East (5, 8), ACC (3, 6), Big 12 (3, 5), SEC (3, 6), Big 10 (2, 5), MVC (1, 2), CUSA (1, 1), WCC (1, 1), Colonial (0, 3), WAC (0, 3), A10 (0, 2), Mountain West (0, 2), Horizon (0, 1), Southern (0, 1).
• Word to the Colonial and WAC with three teams each receiving votes even though none are in the Top 25.
• Is there any value in this meaningless poll whatsoever? Some. Last year the top 6 (and 8 of the top 10) in the preseason coaches poll finished in the top 11 of the final poll (before the NCAA Tournament), and every team in the final top 11 had been ranked somewhere in the top 25 before the season started. Additionally, all four F4 teams were ranked in last year’s preseason top 8 (#1 Florida, #4 Ohio St., #5 UCLA, #8 Georgetown).
• Only six of the preseason top 25 last year didn’t make the NCAA Tournament (#7 LSU, #12 Alabama, #16 Washington, #18 Connecticut, #20 Syracuse, #23 Creighton), so that’s fair evidence that the coaches (at least last year) have a bit of a clue. Note we said only a bit.