Another wacky week of college hoops that saw some of the top dogs fall in a big way, and three very familiar names enter into the poll. Hard times up there in Syracuse, NY, as the Orange have dropped four straight and are reeling right now. Ohio State, the only undefeated team in the nation, is obviously the clear choice at #1.  Some quick n’ dirty analysis after the jump, as always…

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor

This weekend brings us yet another great slate of games with plenty of ranked teams heading out on the road to face unranked opponents. How many will go down this time? All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#21 Georgetown @ #6 Villanova – 12 pm Saturday on ESPN (****)

Despite their win at the Carrier Dome over Syracuse last week, Villanova has lost two of its last three games and now welcomes their rival Georgetown Hoyas to the Wells Fargo Center. The Hoyas have won three straight over the New York-area schools to climb back to 4-4 in Big East play. Georgetown has won four true road games but none of those wins were against teams the caliber of Villanova.

If Freeman and the Hoyas Plan On Finishing Strong, Tonight's a Good Night To Start

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• Providence 83, #6 Villanova 68: “Villanova evened their record for this, the longest road trip of this season, at 1-1 on Saturday with their 11 point win, 83-72, over Syracuse. Chances to conclude the road trip with another win were foiled as the Friars won a decisive, 83-68 victory over Villanova at the Dunkin Donuts Center in downtown Providence, RI. The Friars punched the Wildcats with a 6-0 run to start the game, then stretched that lead to nine, 34-25, going into halftime. Credit Providence for striking again early in the second half, taking a 7-4 run over the first four minutes that stretched the lead to 12, 41-29, before the ‘Cats could regroup for their own run. Villanova could get no closer than seven (43-50 at the 10:11 mark), and once repelled, could not stop the Friars from pushing their lead back out to double digits, where it largely remained through the end of the game. Villanova’s longest road trip for this season ended with on a 1-2 note.” (Villanova by the Numbers)
• #6 Texas 61, Oklahoma State 46: “Texas turned in another fantastic defensive performance, holding Oklahoma State to 32% shooting, as the Longhorns improved their record to 17-3, 5-0 in Big 12 play, with a 61-46 win over the Cowboys in Stillwater.  Tristan Thompson led the Horns with 14 points, and both Jordan Hamilton (12) and Dogus Balbay (10) scored in double digits.” (Burnt Orange Nation or Pistols Firing)
• #19 Minnesota 81, Northwestern 70: “Not many teams could survive losing two point guards capable of starting in the Big Ten in a matter of weeks. But Tubby Smith’s Gophers are surviving and thriving with Devoe Joseph opting to wear street clothes in Oregon and Al Nolen on the bench with a broken foot. How? Dominating the paint. On Wednesday night against Northwestern, the Gophers pounded the ball in the paint at every possible opportunity as Colton Iverson, Ralph Sampson III and Trevor Mbakwe helped the Gophers to a relatively easy win against the Wildcats.” (The Daily Gopher or From the Barn)
• #21 Georgetown 77, St. John’s 52: “That was quite satisfying. Georgetown defeated St. John’s 77-52 in the most impressive performance since Big East play started. Austin Freeman, Jason Clark, and Chris Wright each played spectacularly, and were supported by new super 6th man Hollis Thompson. Clark scored 16 points on 5-5 from the field, including 3-3 from three point land. Thompson, who has improved dramatically since the beginning of the year, came off the bench for the first time this year and scored 15 points, including a ferocious dunk and foul in the first half. Georgetown looked like a completely different team than the one that lost three straight games in early January. Nate Lubick started alongside Clark, Freeman, Wright and Julian Vaughn for the first time this season. The defensive intensity exhibited tonight was far superior to anything we’ve seen in a while. The Hoyas outrebounded St. John’s 39-28, and made 26 baskets on 21 assists” (Casual Hoya)

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News came down late on Tuesday that Tom Izzo had dismissed junior guard Korie Lucious from the Michigan State squad for conduct detrimental to the team. In a statement, Izzo said, “Unfortnately, Korie Lucious displayed conduct detrimental to the program. My focus is on this team for the remainder of the season.”

Lucious and Izzo In Less Trying Times

Lucious also released a statement, in which he admitted, “I didn’t live up to the standards of the program. Unfortunately, I let my teammates, my coaches, and myself down, and I wish them the best for the rest of the season.”

Lucious had led the team in assists, dishing out 4.1 APG as well as contributing 6.5 PPG this year. He also led the team in assist-to-turnover ratio with a rate of 1.9.

So far, there has been no mention as to whether Lucious will be eligible to rejoin the team as a senior next season. He had endured some criticism from MSU fans this year regarding a tendency to disappear late in games, a sentiment that would belie his performance in his most well-known moment as a Spartan: his buzzer-beater against Maryland that sent Midwest 5th-seed Michigan State through to the Sweet Sixteen of last year’s NCAA Tournament:

Tom Izzo is known for how his Spartan squads improve throughout a season and usually overachieve in the NCAA Tournament. In his 15 seasons as head coach, he’s taken MSU to the Tournament 13 times, and those teams have “underachieved” their seeding only twice. Both of those were first-round losses — as a Midwest #7 against Nevada in 2004, and as a Washington-pod #6 against that history making George Mason squad in 2006. Despite their 12-7 record this year, many followers of the game still held out faith that the Spartans would eventually show their usual late-season performance spike, evidenced by the fact that MSU clung to the bottom rung of the AP Top 25 and tied for 23rd in RTC’s rankings this week (see upper left).

As part of their remaining Big Ten slate, Michigan State still has upcoming games against Purdue and Illinois in East Lansing, and on the road at Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Even with six Final Fours, two trips to the championship game and his title in 2000, to survive that schedule and build a record good enough to warrant a bid to the NCAA Tournament this year would be Izzo’s greatest achievement yet. Izzo has four other guards who play at least 11 minutes a game, so what Lucious brought to the team in terms of points and rebounds won’t be terribly hard to absorb among the other players. But the dark cloud and mental gut-punch that this suspension brings to the program in an already difficult year is bigger than any scoring or rebounding contributions that the Spartans will be missing as a result of Lucious’ dismissal.

John Templon is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

A Look Back

The national narrative about the Big Ten has been about the “tiers” in the conference. Last week, those tiers were even more pronounced as the top teams kept on winning and the middle and bottom ones battled it out. In the process, Illinois – a classic example of this philosophy – escaped with a solid home win over Michigan State, but a disappointing loss to Ohio State and Iowa got its first conference win of the season over Indiana. The top teams will start battling it out this week, as Ohio State welcomes Purdue on Tuesday for what will be the “Game of the Year” thus far in conference.

Those middle teams are ones you have to know come March. That’s when the true depth of the conference will be on display and teams like the Illini, Michigan State, Minnesota and maybe a Penn State or Northwestern will be trying to prove they belonged in the discussion all along.

• Team of the Week: Ohio State: A big victory over Illinois on the road was the best win by any Big Ten team last week. The Buckeyes also took care of business against Iowa and now just have to beat Purdue at home and Northwestern on the road to enter February with a shot at perfection intact.
• Player of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State: With his team facing a tough situation at Illinois, the freshman put Ohio State on his back and carried them to an important road victory. He scored 27 points, including 13-15 shooting from the free throw line, grabbed 16 boards and blocked three shots. That was the follow-up to a ho-hum game against Iowa where he notched just 13 points and nine boards. It’s becoming hard to describe Sullinger’s day-to-day work. This Tweet from Monday afternoon summed up his ranks amongst NCAA freshmen very succinctly.
• Newcomer of the Week: Josh Gasser, G, Wisconsin: I’m cheating a bit here by not giving both weekly awards to Sullinger, since he is technically a freshman even if he doesn’t play like one, but I wanted to highlight Gasser’s triple-double against Northwestern. In the 78-46 victory on Sunday at Welsh-Ryan Arena he had ten points, 12 rebounds and ten assists. That’s a heck of a day, and the first in Badger history.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (20-0, 7-0) – Jon Diebler is second in the nation in offensive rating according to Ken Pomeroy at 138.5. He’s shooting 47.6 percent from three-point range and is committing just 1.1 fouls per 40 minutes. No one has benefited more from DeShaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger patrolling the middle than this 6’6 senior shooting guard.

2. Wisconsin (15-4, 5-2) – After Sunday’s demolition of Northwestern, the Badgers have the second best offense in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy. Wait, let’s repeat that: Wisconsin has the second best offense in the country. Bo Ryan knows his offense is built upon solid principles, which is what made this article all the more amusing. Can we all agree the Wisconsin offense isn’t “struggling” anymore? (Not that it ever really was.)

3. Purdue (17-3, 6-1) – How Penn State lost a 6’10 forward that was the best player on the court at the end of a critical game, I’ll never know, but JaJuan Johnson knocked down the game-winner and Purdue got two home victories last week. Johnson has scored 20-plus points in each of his last four games and hasn’t scored fewer than 15 since December 7 against Valparaiso. Oddly, his rebounding totals are down lately. He grabbed seven boards combined against Penn State and Michigan State last week.

4. Michigan State (12-7, 4-3) – Tom Izzo must have an ear-to-ear grin on his face now, because while his team lost two games last week, they’ll get healthy with a three-game stretch against the bottom third of the conference. Of course if they lose one of those games I don’t want to be anywhere near that locker room.

5. Illinois (14-6, 4-3) – Oh, what might’ve been for the Illini. Illinois was up eight with under 13 minutes to play against Ohio State, but it failed to contain Jared Sullinger down the stretch. Demetri McCamey was 2-11 from the floor in the game and scored five points to go along with five assists and four turnovers. It’s a good thing Jereme Richmond and Bruce Weber have straightened things out, because it was the superstar freshman’s play that kept the Illini in it with 18 points, on 9-12 shooting, and 10 boards.

6. Minnesota (15-4, 4-3) – While Minnesota won its only game on the court last week it came at a terrible price. The Gophers will be without starting point guard Al Nolen for at least four weeks due to a foot injury, and possibly the rest of the season. Nolen is going to have surgery on Wednesday and will do anything to get back on the court, but for now, Tubby Smith is going to have to deal with this latest blow to his backcourt. The team was already thin at the guard spot after the transfer of Devoe Joseph.

7. Penn State (10-8, 3-4) – The Nittany Lions were the odd team out on Saturday, so they haven’t played since Wednesday, January 19. What a game that was. JaJuan Johnson had to hit a shot on the Boilermakers’ final possession to eek out the one-point win. That game showed the fight that Penn State has and no team can take them lightly during the rest of conference play. Still, the final play that Ed DeChellis drew up seemed designed for a lot less time. You’d hope to at least get a look at the basket on the final possession.

8. Northwestern (13-6, 3-5) – The Wildcats found out what both sides of a blowout feel like last week against SIU Edwardsville and Wisconsin. Even without star John Shurna, who was resting his injured ankle, and the third string playing the majority of the second half Northwestern ran past the overmatched Cougars, 98-55. Bill Carmody had his players run out the clock the final two possessions rather than score 100 on the obviously overmatched visitors. On Sunday though it was the home team that struggled. Northwestern got down early and never recovered against Wisconsin as the team’s NCAA Tournament hopes were dealt another crippling blow. Teams that blow out the Wildcats take away Drew Crawford. When the sophomore forward doesn’t score Northwestern’s offense struggles a lot and he didn’t score a point in 27 minutes against the Badgers.

9. Michigan (11-9, 1-6) – Tim Hardaway, Jr. has been given the green light for the Wolverines. In two losses last week the freshman attempted 28 shots, an even 14 in each game. He struggled against Northwestern, making three and scoring eight points, but on Saturday he exploded for 20 points against Minnesota in a five-point loss.

10. Iowa (8-11, 1-6) – Freshman Melsahne Basabe’s third 20-point game of the season was enough to carry the Hawkeyes to a 91-77 victory over Indiana and get them out of the conference cellar. This team still doesn’t look like it’ll bother anyone but the bottom tier of the conference, but players like Basabe are pieces to build on for the program’s future.

11. Indiana (10-10, 1-6) – A loss at Iowa probably wasn’t Tom Crean’s idea of a good time. While Christian Watford scored 30 points, Jordan Hulls was held under 10 points for the first time in seven games. Hulls is Indiana’s most efficient scorer and a three-point gunner that has connected on 49.4 percent of his attempts this season. Maurice Creek’s right knee can no longer elude surgery, and he’ll again miss a big chunk of conference play as he gets shut down.

A Look Ahead (all times EST):

• 1/25 – Purdue at Ohio State, 9 p.m., ESPN
• 1/26 – Northwestern at Minnesota, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/27 – Michigan at Michigan State, 7 p.m., ESPN
• 1/29 – Minnesota at Purdue, 1 p.m., CBS
• 1/29 – Wisconsin at Penn State, 4 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/30 – Iowa at Michigan, 4 p.m., Big Ten Network

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: We’re starting to see some trends develop in the tempo-free statistics. A couple might be surprising and here are some of the highlights:

• Wisconsin has joined the elite tier of the conference.  The Badgers play slowly, so sometimes you don’t see their blowouts as the great feats they are, but Bo Ryan has his team playing at peak efficiency in conference. After Sunday’s blowout Wisconsin is right in the middle of the upper tier behind Purdue (+0.18 efficiency margin per possession) and Ohio State (+0.14) at +0.16 points per possession in conference. That’s a very impressive mark.
• Michigan State’s offense is in trouble as the Spartans rank 10th in the Big Ten in conference offensive efficiency at 1.04 points per possession. The fact that they’re scoring more than a point per possession and still near the bottom also tells you how deadly efficient every team has been this season. Still, Tom Izzo has to find a way to coax some more points out of his team or they’re going to struggle during the rest of conference play.
• You might think that those great offensive efficiencies in Big Ten play are because of teams like Indiana and Iowa, but that’s not true. No Big Ten team is allowing less than a point per possession in conference play. Ohio State leads the way at 1.002.
• The numbers indicate that Ohio State is really lucky to still be undefeated, not just overall but also in conference. Maybe the other shoe drops on Tuesday night against Purdue? On the other side you’ve got Wisconsin and Indiana as the unluckiest. All that said, it seems like this is related to two teams that are moving in different directions. The Hoosiers are playing worse lately and the Badgers better, which is skewing both of their respective numbers.

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #16 Notre Dame 56, #3 Pittsburgh 51: “Enormous road win for the Irish tonight, as they utilized some great outside shooting and Ben “Get Out Of My Damn Way” Hansbrough down the stretch to come from behind against the top-notch Pitt Panthers. Carleton Scott’s 4-point play with about seven minutes left pushed the ND lead to 46-41, and they never relinquished it. Some awesome clear-outs for Ben after 30 seconds of burn in the waning minutes helped put it away. (When was the last time we had a guard who could work the clear-out? Seriously. When? And who thought Ben would ever be that guy?)” (Rakes of Mallow)

Pre-Game Analysis

• #12 Purdue at #1 Ohio State: A preview in the form of Q & A from two opposing bloggers. (Boiled Sports or Buckeye Battle Cry)
• Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech: The Hokies will be trying to build on some recent victories in an attempt to move up in the ACC standings. (Tech Hoops)
• Maryland at Virginia: “Maryland’s game at Virginia at John Paul Jones Arena on Thursday is massively important for the Terrapins. Really, every single game from this point out is, and all for the same reason: Maryland’s skating on thin ice for the NCAA tournament unless an unexpected run is on the way down the stretch. Another bad loss, even on the road, may not be something this year’s Terrapins can survive.” (Testudo Times)

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Lots of movement within the top 10 as Syracuse and Kansas both struggled in losses, but one team in particular predictably did not change: Ohio State remains at #1.  Quick n’ dirty analysis of this week’s poll after the jump…

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #1 Ohio State 73, #18 Illinois 68: “In a game of runs, Ohio State saved their best for last answering a 12-4 Illini run creating a 50-42 deficit with 12:53 to play with a 22-6 blitz of their own to take a 64-56 lead with 4:22 left before holding on for a 73-68 victory this afternoon against Illinois in Assembly Hall.” (Eleven Warriors or Hail to the Orange)
• #10 Texas 74, #2 Kansas 63: “The University of Texas Longhorns fell down 18-3 in the first four minutes of the game and trailed by 12 at half before roaring back to blow out Kansas in the second half. J’Covan Brown’s offense, combined with an exceptional team effort on defense (and huge second half rebounding from Matt Hill), fueled the Texas comeback, with the Horns outscoring the Jayhawks 51-28 in the second half. The win was the first by a visiting opponent at Kansas since February, 2007, snapping a 69-game home winning streak for the Jayhawks.  And for Rick Barnes’ squad, it was a stunningly poised performance after a disastrous start, showing the heart of this team.  One of the most impressive, exciting regular season wins in school history.” (Burnt Orange Nation: Part 1 and Part 2; Rock Chalk Talk: Part 1 and Part 2)
• #7 Villanova 83, #3 Syracuse 72: “Both Villanova and Syracuse entered the game eager to break the streak each had begun with their last outing. A streak of the losing kind. For both the number stood at one and neither wanted to see it go to two. Villanova played to their offensive and defensive numbers in the first half, establishing an 11 point (40-29) lead going into the intermission. The last 20 minutes, an offensive festival for both (or a clinic on how to deconstruct the other team’s defense?), saw the two Top 10 teams match point-for-point to the end of the game, ended at 83-72, with Villanova’s 11 point first half cushion intact.” (Villanova by the Numbers and Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician: Recap and Videos)
• #8 UConn 72, Tennessee 61: “Kemba Walker had, statisically, his least productive game of the season. The Huskies still won. These truly are heady times, my friends.” (The UConn Blog and Rocky Top Talk)
• #11 Kentucky 67, South Carolina 58: “Well, except for the last 3 minutes, that game was outstanding. But in a mere 180 seconds, the Kentucky Wildcats went from having one of their better games to fighting off a wild comeback by the South Carolina Gamecocks. In the end, Kentucky won more or less convincingly, but I’d feel a lot better about it if the ‘Cats had finished better.” (A Sea of Blue: Part 1 and Part 2)
• #13 Missouri 87, Iowa State 54: “It was almost a bit jarring seeing a team actively not trying to slow Mizzou down last night.  Before the game, the announcers made it sound as if Fred Hoiberg wanted his team to slow down the pace, but with a team (and coach) so inexperienced against this style, Iowa State ran and ran despite their best intentions, and … You. Do. Not. Run. With. Missouri.” (Rock M Nation)
• #14 Purdue 86, #19 Michigan State 76: “We knew it would happen. We knew Smooge would return to his old form. He showed a bit of it v. PSU on Wednesday, but he showed it all versus MSU tonight. He created his own shot, knocked down the long ball and *gasp* even shot a free throw or two!! It was good to see Moore back at it. But, he wasn’t the story tonight in God’s Country. The win was a team effort.” (Boiled Sports)
• #17 Minnesota 69, Michigan 64: “Different game, same story. This team’s inability to play defense in the Big Ten becomes more evident with every game. This time it was Minnesota that dismantled the Michigan defense with an overwhelming number of easy looks around the basket and offensive rebounds. Michigan appeared to have a chance to make the game interesting down the stretch but was unable to the two or three stops in a row necessary to have a chance.” (UM Hoops: Recap, Player Reaction, and John Beilein Reaction; The Daily Gopher)

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Pittsburgh, as Syracuse most recently learned, is a contender to win the national championship because they do one thing incredibly well and a lot of other things at a pretty high level. The one excellent thing they do is crash the offensive boards. They lead the nation in offensive rebounding rate, which is the driving force behind their current position as the most efficient offense in the country.  The Panthers do a lot of other things well– shooting, defensive rebounding, controlling turnovers– but nothing they do, in terms of advanced stats, really jumped out at me until I noticed that they are second in the nation in assists to field goals made. 69.8% of Pittsburgh’s field goals are assisted. This is interesting and pretty cool, but I began to wonder if it even mattered.

Assists are really weird, because in a way that’s not true of any other individual stat, they don’t really measure individual performance at all. To get a credited assist, the passer’s teammate has to knock down shots. Surround a healthy Kyrie Irving with four clones of someone who shoots as well as I do, and as crisp, creative, and well-timed as his passes are, he is not going to get too many assists, solely because, well, I am a terrible shooter.The box score for this game will show he got no assists. Did Kyrie have a bad game? Were his passes worse than usual?

Jamie Dixon's Team Moves the Ball Well

No, probably not, and that’s a tricky question. From close to the beginning of basketball box scores, assists have been tracked. In fact, in the early days of individual statistics, assists were really about the only thing tracked besides points and rebounds. Why do we even track assists? Maybe just because we always have. On some level, it’s easy to see what assists are supposed to do: assists are supposed to be a measure of play-making through passing. But as I mentioned, assists really aren’t all that great at measuring true ball movement because the statistic is hopelessly tangled up with field goal percentage. A team that makes more shots should generally have more assists. We don’t keep track of who made a great pass that led to a missed shot, and that really throws off our view of skilled passing and playmaking, which, after all, assists are supposed to measure.

There are more problems than that. We largely assume that assists are almost always positive. Passing is good. The problem is that sometimes it isn’t. Let’s suppose that we are on the fast-break, and I have the ball and my man beat. It would be easy for me to hit an uncontested layup. Instead, I drop the ball back to you, and you hit a slightly more difficult uncontested mid-range shot. I decreased the chance of us scoring with that pass, but got credited with the assist. That was a bad assist and these happen all the time. If you don’t believe me, watch Rajon Rondo “gun” for assists the next time you watch the Boston Celtics play.

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