RTC Top 25: Week 5

Posted by rtmsf on December 7th, 2009

The Top 10 is still fairly static after five weeks of polling, but we’re seeing all kinds of movement in and out at the bottom of the poll on a week-to-week basis.  Analysis after the jump…

rtc blogpoll 12.07.09

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Morning Five: 12.03.09 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on December 3rd, 2009

morning5

So we think we owe you a bonus one today since yesterday was a wash…

  1. Depaul monster in the paint Mac Koshwal will miss 3-4 more weeks with a foot injury that he suffered against Tennessee in the Paradise Jam two Saturdays ago.  He is averaging 15/13 in three games so far this season.  Even without the services of Koshwal, the Blue Demons have been marginally better so far this year, playing the Vols tough in the game mentioned above, and coming out of Puerto Rico with two wins against Northern Iowa and St. Joseph’s.
  2. Minnesota super-recruit Royce White pled guilty yesterday to a reduced charge of disorderly conduct and petty theft for an incident in October where he allegedly stole $100 worth of clothing and then shoved a Mall of America security guard when questioned about it.  If he keeps his nose clean for a year, the disorderly conduct conviction will be dropped from his record, but now the burden of what to do with him rests with Tubby Smith.  After a 4-0 start this season, the Gophers have now lost three in a row and could definitely use the powerful forward in the low post for some additional scoring punch.
  3. Mike DeCourcy has been knocking it outta the park lately, but there’s one thing in his latest column we have to disagree with.  With respect to UNC’s Larry Drew II as the maestro of the Carolina attack, MD points out that many teams won titles without great point guards, and plenty of great point guards never won national titles.  Both true.  The issue is that he’s looking at it the wrong way, because we’re not talking about any random team.  We’re talking about Roy Williams teams, and his best teams need an elite point guard (Jacque Vaughn, Ray Felton, Ty Lawson) to push his offense into overdrive.  Whether Drew can become that kind of a guard is open for debate, but we’re not seeing it here.
  4. Luke Winn gives us some efficiency data on why Michigan State might be a good bit overrated at this point in the season.  The Spartan defense is ranked #112 at KenPom, allowing a very un-Izzo-like 46% from two and not forcing very many turnovers (12.7 per game).
  5. Ballin is a Habit has a cool post up today about some of the most interesting/bizarre/exciting pregame jumbotron videos at college arenas.  Our favorite, by far: the 2001 Space Odyssey music with Josh Pastner’s head rising over a basketball followed by his players sitting and walking and dribbling through various Memphis landmarks.  Awesome.
  6. Kentucky and North Carolina fans are getting a little chippy over a post at Kentucky Sports Radio making fun of the state of NC’s, um, unique culture, in preparation for Saturday’s game at Rupp Arena.  UNC fans have been striking back, both on that site as well as on a Charlotte Observer blog called Above the Rim.  There are some hilarious comments on both of those sites — check it out.
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ATB: The More Things Change…

Posted by rtmsf on December 2nd, 2009

atb

The More They Stay the Same… #11 UNC 89, #9 Michigan State 82.  Ok, can we now all just agree that UNC just has Michigan State’s number?  For the fifth straight time, and the third episode within one calendar year, North Carolina made Tom Izzo’s Spartans look like charlatans on the basketball court.  How is this possible?  How can a team like Nevada hang with the Heels a few days ago for most of the game, and a loaded, deep, talented, athletic team like MSU continually get punked and embarrassed by the same squad?  Well, motivation helps.  Ed Davis (22/6) and Larry Drew II (18/6 assts) both had career highs in points, and in watching the game, it seemed as if Carolina could get and make nearly any shot it wanted.  Michigan State, for some reason, seems to think that it can run with Carolina, and as they learned for the third time with the same core of Lucas, Morgan, et al., they cannot.  Why do they try?  The thing about MSU is that they weren’t the second-best team last year, and they surely aren’t this year either — but aren’t we used to this with Izzo’s teams by now?  They typically underachieve in the regular season, only to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament.  The problem is that teams that are routinely blown out do not win national championships.  Granted, Michigan State made a run in this game to get the margin back to a respectable score, but Carolina was never seriously threatened after the first ten minutes of the game.  So what went wrong other than allowing UNC to shoot lights-out again?  How about 2-20 from three (and many of those misses were open looks), a terrible evening from deep for a team that came into this game shooting 37% from distance?  How about allowing point guards Drew and Dexter Strickland to torch the MSU defense for repeated forays to the rim for easy buckets (9-12 FG)?  How about the rough-and-tumble Spartans getting outrebounded (36-34) by the admittedly bigger (but tougher?) Heels?  Honestly, the reason we thought this game would go Carolina’s way was because they were playing at home, but we’re not sure that it would have gone any differently had they played this game on Mars.  Michigan State simply cannot get over on Carolina, and it’s starting to get ridiculous.  At least Raymar Morgan (18/6) looked healthy and played well, right?

Michigan St NCarolina Basketball

ACC/Big Ten Challenge.  We’re deadlocked at 3-3 going into the last day, and yeah, it’s gone exactly as we predicted so far.  Which of course means all five games tomorrow will go crazy — expect all kinds of upset specials.  Seriously, though, we still think it comes down to the BC-Michigan game tomorrow night.  Winner of that one wins the Challenge (our choice: UM).

  • #6 Purdue 69, Wake Forest 58.  Wake played well enough for a half to win this game, but the Deacs don’t have enough offensive threats beyond Al-Farouq Aminu when he has an off game (12/10 on 3-11 FG including 6 TOs) and they turn the ball over like it’s their job.  But we knew that already.  Purdue, on the other hand, is only getting production from their Big Three of Robbie Hummel (11/11 on 3-11 FG), E’Twaun Moore (22/4/3 assts) and JaJuan Johnson (21/9/3 blks) — the rest of the team only scored fifteen points.  That’ll carry the Boilermakers against the lesser teams, especially in Mackey Arena, but we have concerns about when they start playing athletic teams like WFU that also have multiple serious scorers.  Wake played superb defense, holding Purdue to 34% for the game and 1-15 from deep, but their endemic problems with ballhandling and lack of a three-point threat will be problematic all season.
  • Northwestern 65, NC State 53. Northwestern is quickly becoming our second favorite team of this season (behind Portland).  With the injury troubles that they endured to start this season, we would have completely understood if the Wildcats had simply packed it in and hoped for next year.  But they didn’t.  Beating Notre Dame, Iowa State and NC State isn’t exactly equivalent to Michigan State, Purdue and Ohio State, as they’ll face in the Big Ten, but the key is that NW is gaining experience with winning and they’re doing it in environments away from the comforts of home.  Tonight Michael Thompson stepped up with 22/4 and Jeremy Nash also chipped in 12/8/4 assts in the win.  The Wildcats could realistically enter Big Ten play at 10-1 by the end of this month.  Good for them.

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That’s Debatable: What We’ve Learned…

Posted by rtmsf on December 1st, 2009

debatable

Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball.  Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts from our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season.  We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today.  Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.

This Week’s Topic: Now that we’re through the majority of the early-season tournaments and the calendar has turned to December, what have you learned from the first several weeks of the season?

zach hayes – editor/contributor, RTC

I’ve learned that the Big Ten may be actually be overrated for once. Purdue picked up a quality win against Tennessee and Michigan State survived Gonzaga at home, but it was a very rough week overall for the conference. Michigan barely beat a Creighton team that ended up losing to Iona and finish in 8th place at the Old Spice Classic, then were crushed by Marquette and fell to Alabama. Illinois saw their freshmen guard duo take some serious lumps in stunning defeats to a down Utah team and Bradley. Minnesota fell to both Texas A&M and Portland in Anaheim. Northwestern’s stock dropped with Kevin Coble’s season-ending injury and their two wins this weekend over two likely-NIT teams in Notre Dame and Iowa State in Chicago aren’t that impressive. Penn State fell to UNC-Wilmington and Tulane in Charleston two weeks ago when Ohio State got demolished by a flawed North Carolina squad. The prevailing thought around college basketball is that the Big Ten can’t play up to the level of other conferences like the ACC, Big East and Big 12. While this year was supposed to change that notion, it has, frankly, only done the opposite for the conference as a whole. Winning the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the first time would certainly change some people’s minds, including myself.

john stevens – editor/contributor, RTC

I’ve learned that, as of right now, the last ten teams listed in any Top 25 you can find are an absolute crap shoot.  If you examine the few polls we’ve had this season, you’ll see that pretty much everyone agrees on the first 15 teams, and after that… we don’t know.  It’s chaos.  I can’t remember a season where we’ve seen such craziness in the bottom half of the polls.  This week’s AP and ESPN/USA Today Coaches Polls are great examples.  In the AP, six of the bottom 11 teams are different from the previous week, five in the ESPN/USA Today.  California sits at #25 in the ESPN poll, #37 in the AP.  Four of the new teams in the AP poll LOST last week but still got in (two in the Coaches’), while unbeaten Oklahoma State sits at #26 in both.  This is all something to celebrate rather than lament, as it just means that there are more really good teams out there than a Top 25 poll can accommodate.  I’ll gladly buy any stock in Siena, Dayton, and Mississippi State if anybody’s selling, and you can come see me again in March.

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Checking In On… the Big Ten

Posted by rtmsf on December 1st, 2009

checkinginon

Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

This past week was like March Madness in November for the Big Ten. The Big Ten is glad it isn’t though, as all but a few would be left standing with upset after upset bringing down the big and mighty. Those who fell this week include: Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan. The Big Ten started last week with 6 teams in the AP’s top 25, and only 3 remain in Purdue (#6), Michigan State (#9), and Ohio State (#15). The only unbeaten team in the Big Ten is now Purdue.

Standings

  1. Purdue 5-0
  2. Michigan State 5-1
  3. Ohio State 5-1
  4. Northwestern 5-1
  5. Wisconsin 4-1
  6. Penn State 5-2
  7. Illinois 4-2
  8. Minnesota 4-2
  9. Michigan 3-2
  10. Indiana 3-3
  11. Iowa 2-4

Top Storylines

  • Evan Turner, oops he did it again. That’s right folks, Evan Turner from Ohio State pulled off another triple double this week, becoming just 1 of 34 NCAA athletes to pull off multiple triple-double games in a single season.
  • Michigan State falls to Florida, ending their unbeaten streak. Turns out that Florida is legit again this season, moving up to #17 in the AP. Michigan State was sloppy and Florida made them pay, even though the game was a nailbiter.
  • Remember the name: John Shurna. The sophomore forward poured it on in the Chicago Invitational to take down Notre Dame and Iowa State, earning MVP honors over the likes of Craig Brackins and Luke Harangody, both household names.
  • Last but definitely not least, the first signs that Minnesota’s off the court troubles finally affected their on the court performance this week when they lost to Texas A&M after sitting Lawrence Westbrook and Al Nolen for disciplinary reasons. Westbrook and Nolen combine for over 19 points per game, and they lost by 1 point. That time sitting on the bench was definitely worth more than a point.

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Checking In On… the ACC

Posted by rtmsf on December 1st, 2009

checkinginon

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

One team continued its dominant start with big wins at the World’s Most Famous Arena. The other struggled to live up to expectations, and did so at a tiny gym in paradise.

That lame attempt at suspense is explained below:

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Monday, Nov. 30)

1. Duke (6-0)

PAST: With solid wins over Arizona State and UConn at the Preseason NIT, the Devils stayed hot to start their season. The UConn game wasn’t exactly pretty, but the defense and rebounding displayed by the Dookies are a good sign going into the meat of the schedule..

FUTURE: The Devils take their first actual road trip on Wednesday when they face Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Outside of that, their next real test doesn’t really come until a return to MSG on Dec. 19 to face Gonzaga.

2. North Carolina (6-1)

PAST: The Heels continue to be ho-hum in their wins, including Roy Williams’ 600th Sunday night against Nevada…

FUTURE: …but they don’t have room to be ho-hum anymore. UNC hosts Michigan State Tuesday night in the season’s first big game (more below), and then heads to Lexington to face Kentucky on Saturday.

3. Georgia Tech (4-1)

PAST: The Jackets handled Mercer in their only game this week.

FUTURE: Siena comes calling Wednesday in an interesting matchup. It should be one Tech can handle pretty easily, as should Saturday’s date with USC.

4. Clemson (6-1)

PAST: The Tigers lost to Texas A&M, but balanced that with a solid win over Butler in the 76 Classic. Senior David Potter is the only Tiger near the top of any ACC stat list, shooting 60% from beyond the arc.

FUTURE: Two interesting home games this week for the Tigers, as they host Illinois Wednesday and in-state rival South Carolina on Saturday.

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Morning Five: 12.01.09 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on December 1st, 2009

morning5

  1. We’ll have more on this later today, but the AP received the records of the NCAA’s response to Memphis as a result of the Derrick Rose SAT Scandal.  In a succinct statement, it comes down to the fact that the NCAA believes that schools must fear punishment for using sketchy players, and if they don’t, they’ll act with impunity in recruiting those guys.  It’s a very interesting argument, but not one that everyone is buying…  more later.
  2. Very tough news for Villanova, as they will likely lose freshman center Mouphtaou Yarou for the entire season due to a viral infection that is not life-threatening.  This puts even more pressure on Antonio Pena to contribute from the inside.  There were already serious concerns as to how VU would replace Dante Cunningham in the post, and now we’re not sure that the Wildcats can even come close to doing that.  Jay Wright may want to consider the four-guard lineup again.
  3. Seth Davis gives us his weekly Hoop Thoughts — make sure you check out page two for the best of the article.
  4. Mike DeCourcy riffs on the UNC-MSU game tonight, the irrelevance of polls (thankfully this isn’t football), and Alabama’s JaMychael Green (whom we’ve been hyping for a while now).
  5. Occasionally, we’ll find an amusing (often, non-PC) tweet from one of the coaches, players or media folks we’re tracking and we’ll put it up here for your enjoyment as well.  Today’s entry is from UT-Arlington’s Marquez Haynes.  Guess he was hungry?

quezhaynes tweet

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How the Big Ten Will Win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge…

Posted by rtmsf on November 30th, 2009

We’re a little short on time for this post, but we wanted to make sure that it’s up ahead of tonight’s Penn State @ Virginia game (7 pm ET, ESPN2) that tips off the 2009 ACC/Big Ten Challenge.  If you’re reading this post, you’re undoubtedly well aware that the ACC holds a commanding 62-35 record in the ten-year history of this event, and that the ACC has won all ten challenges.  The Big Ten has had four years where it lost by only one game (6-5 or 5-4), but the schools from the midwest have never been able to put it all together in a single season to overtake the mighty ACC. 

Until this year. 

accbigten challenge logo

We here at RTC believe that 2009 is when the tide will finally shift in favor of the Big Ten.  The talent and coaching are there, the matchups are favorable, and nothing lasts forever (except Clemson losing in Chapel Hill, apparently).  Here’s our quick analysis of how this year’s Challenge will go down…

Monday November 30

  • Penn State @ Virginia (ESPN2) – 7 pm.  This might appear to be one of the least important games of the Challenge, but given the other matchups, this could be the rubber game that the Big Ten needs to bring the whole ACC house of cards down.  Both teams are 4-2 so far this year, but on paper, Virginia’s losses (South Florida and Stanford) are a little more impressive than Penn State’s (UNC-Wilmington and Tulane).  This will be a meat-grinder of a game, and the team whose star guard plays better — Sylven Landesberg (UVa) or Talor Battle (PSU) — will win.  Our money is on Mr. Clutch, Talor Battle, and PSU will give the Big Ten a key road win to start it off. 

Tuesday December 1

  • Wake Forest @ #4 Purdue (ESPN) – 7 pm.  This might be a chic upset pick for the ACC, but don’t bother going there.  Wake has yet to play anyone of consequence and lost to William & Mary on Saturday night anyway because they have no outside shooting to speak of.  Purdue will triple-up on Al-Farouq Aminu and dare the Deacon guards to fire away.  They will, and they’ll miss, and Purdue’s easy victory will put the Big Ten into an early 2-0 lead. 
  • Northwestern @ NC State (ESPNU) – 7pm.  After Kevin Coble injured his knee, we would have chosen NC State here.  But Northwestern dispatched of Notre Dame and Iowa State over the weekend after testing Butler the week before, and we’re becoming convinced that the Wildcats are still going to be heard from this season.  NC State is 5-0 with its best win over Auburn, but NW isn’t going to shoot 45% from the line tonight (as NCSU’s opponents have this season), and it says here that the Big Ten steals another road win to go up 3-0. 
  • Maryland @ Indiana (ESPN2) – 7:30 pm.  Indiana continues to play tough games they end up losing (0-3 in the islands last week) and Maryland looked less than impressive in Maui, but we dare you to count out Gary Williams.  Because as soon as you do, he makes you look silly.  This has the makings of a Greivis Vasquez explosion game…  national tv, people doubting Maryland, all the red in the building.  Maryland draws the first Big Ten blood with a commanding road win to make the tally 3-1. 
  • #9 Michigan State @ #10 North Carolina (ESPN) – 9 pm.  The marquee game of the entire Challenge, just like last year.  Even though MSU has the majority of its team returning, and UNC does not, we don’t like that this game is taking place in Chapel Hill.  The preponderance of Carolina blue in the building is going to glaze over the eyes of Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, Raymar Morgan and company as they remember the two shellackings from 2008-09, and MSU turns in a stinker of a game as the youthful Heels strut their stuff in front of the home crowd.  The tally moves to 3-2 Big Ten. 
  • Virginia Tech @ Iowa (ESPN2) – 9:30 pm.  Iowa is without question one of the worst BCS teams in existence this year, and as bad as Virginia Tech is profiling right now, they’re still significantly better than the Hawkeyes.  We’d expect this game to be incredibly ugly and close, but Malcolm Delaney as the best player on the court will take over in the last few minutes to give Va Tech the win.  This result will even things up 3-3 going into Wednesday’s games. 

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ATB: Thanksgiving Leftovers…

Posted by rtmsf on November 30th, 2009

atb

Ed. Note: sorry for the delay on Sunday’s ATB, but the travel schedule got in the way…

Over the weekend, there was something in the neighborhood of 145 college basketball games.  Many were several times more compelling than watching Tim Tebow praise God one more time in another blowout Florida win or seeing the Charlie Weis Bataan death march at Notre Dame (although the Iron Bowl was good).  With that in mind, we’re here to sort through our Thanksgiving leftovers to award the teams that most and least deserve a scrumptious plate of tofurkey and leeks (ok, maybe that menu was at your house, not ours).

Turkey Sandwiches.  Usually better the second time around.  And the third time.  And the fourth…  Unless you’re Ben Howland and UCLA, and you’re starting to wonder if that mayo tastes a little spoiled after the fourth helping.  After UCLA dropped its third game in a row at the 76 Classic (and fourth on the year), questions are swirling as to what is wrong with his Bruins.  It’s not just that UCLA has four losses; it’s that these losses are to mid-majors like Cal State Fullerton, Portland, Butler and now Long Beach State.  Butler and Portland are NCAA-worthy, but the others?  Let’s examine what’s wrong, and see if anything can be done to fix it.  For starters, the UCLA offense — often a challenge in Howland’s era — is on life support this season.  Nobody on this team appears to be able to shoot the ball, and that includes from the field (44%), three (26%) and the line (56%).  Guards Malcolm Lee and Jerime Anderson were hot-shot recruits in the backcourt, but neither of them can break 40% from the field; there was a big fuss about Nikola Dragovic’s return to the team after an accusation of assault, and he’s hitting a frigid 25% of his attempts.  Good grief – when Michael Roll (23 pts in the LBSU game) is your “star” player, you have serious offensive issues.  But it’s not just the offense this season, as bad as that has been.  It’s also the defense, which is traditionally a Howland staple and has him contemplating changing his usual tough man-to-man for a zone.  UCLA is giving up 45% shooting to teams (worst in the Pac-10) and when they’ve needed to get the stop — witness the CS Fullerton and Butler games — they came up empty.  So the question is whether this team can turn it around, and we’re not sure that it can in time to stop the bleeding.  #1 Kansas is on the agenda next weekend, and Mississippi State and Notre Dame soon thereafter.  The Pac-10, as we all know by now, is incredibly weak, but if you can’t beat Long Beach and Fullerton, you’re not going to beat Arizona and Washington either.  There is a ton of work to be done here, and if Howland can turn it around by March, we’ll be right there at the front of the line to give him accolades.  Until then, though, UCLA basketball doesn’t take kindly to this stuff, so he’d better get moving quickly…

Pumpkin Pie.  A meal unto itself, making yourself fat and happy with pasty goodness.  Has anyone — and we mean anyone — looked better than West Virginia through the first three weeks of the season?  Let’s look at the short list: Syracuse and Duke.   That’s it – those are the only two teams who have looked as dominant as WVU in our estimation.  Yesterday Bob Huggins and his Mountaineers left Anaheim with what they were expected to do: win the 76 Classic.  Few expected them to do it by facing upstart WCC foe Portland in the championship game, as the Pilots crushed UCLA and outlasted Minnesota to get there, but there was Eric Reveno’s crew facing off against WVU in the finals.  The Pilots ran into a buzzsaw on Sunday, though, as Tournament MVP Da’Sean Butler posted 26 points and Portland shot just 5-24 from behind the three-point arc, clearly bothered by West Virginia’s athleticism and close-out pressure defense.  With the return of sophomore Devin Ebanks – after his mysterious stint in coach Huggins’ doghouse –- the Mountaineers look fine-tuned and ready to compete with anyone in the nation.  Of course, it’s only November, and we’ve been down this road with Huggins before, so stay prepared for anything.

Mac n’ Cheese.  Gooey deliciousness.  That’s how Northwestern must be feeling after winning the Chicago Invitational over two tough teams, Notre Dame and Iowa State.  Maybe that NCAA Tournament bid isn’t a pipe dream after all since losing Kevin Coble and Jeff Ryan to injuries, because it’s clear that Northwestern has decided that it will not go quietly.  John Shurna led the Wildcats with 23/7/4 assts while helping to harass ISU star Craig Brackins into a 6-16 FG, 18/9 night (he’s capable of much more).   As it stands, Northwestern is now 5-1, with its sole loss to Butler and a good chance to enter Big Ten play at 11-1 (tomorrow night’s ACC/B10 game against NC State is winnable). 

Green Bean Casserole#2 Michigan State gets the green bean casserole leftovers because, like the dish, they held up fairly well after a disappointing start in the Legends Classic.  The Spartans recovered from their shocking upset loss to Florida on Friday night in the semifinal round by taking it out on UMass in the consolation game 106-68 on Saturday.  RTC Live was there if you want more details, but MSU used a 30-3 first half run to dominate the Minutemen, and ended up the game shooting a red-hot 58% and hitting fourteen threes.  Tom Izzo set a new record for wins at Michigan State with his 341st win on this night, passing his mentor Jud Heathcote.

Warm Rolls. It’s comforting and makes you feel all fuzzy inside, just like family; the First Bro-in-Law had his warm fuzzies at Oregon State’s game in DC with GW on Saturday.  Craig Robinson’s Oregon State team got its first decent win of the season 64-57 against the previously unbeaten Colonials as the First Family looked on.  OSU’s Seth Tarver lit up the stat sheet with 18/7/3 assts/3 stls, but given how badly the Beavers have played to this point, President Obama may want to make plans for several visits to the west coast in January and February. 

Obama

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RTC Live: Legends Classic (Michigan St. vs. UMass)

Posted by rtmsf on November 28th, 2009

RTCLive

RTC Live will be back tonight from the shifty streets of Atlantic City to provide live coverage of #2 Michigan State vs. Massachusetts in the consolation game  of the Legends Classic at 5:30 pm ET.  As you know, MSU was upset last night by Florida 77-74 in the semifinals, and quasi-home team Rutgers took care of UMass in the other semi.  We imagine that Tom Izzo was not happy with his team’s performance last evening — especially the 20+ turnovers — so it’ll be interesting to see how the Spartans respond tonight.  Join us for another edition of RTC Live tonight.

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