Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

So I finally found my way out of the snowy winter doldrums (unlike the Tar Heels) – and the 67 feet of snow around here – in time to give you the latest ACC update. We’ll try to keep the same categories for the teams as last time, based on their postseason prospects: Definite Dancers, Probably Safe, Bubbly, NIT-picking, and CBI-Dreaming.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record after games of Sunday, Feb. 14)

DEFINITE DANCERS

1. Duke (21-4, 9-2)

RESUME: The Blue Devils only served to enhance their resume over the last two weeks, going 4-0, with three of those coming in impressive fashion. Oddly, the one close game wasn’t at UNC or vs. Georgia Tech, but at Boston College. I know BC is struggling this year, but I’ll give the Devils a pass on that one. The trip to Boston is a tough one, and it became the biggest game of the year on a campus that doesn’t really care about much (sorry for my anti-BC biterness this week – reasoning later on).

FUTURE: Last time out, I said Duke was looking like a #4 or #5 seed. But barring a few bad losses, or an early exit from the conference tourney, Duke should get a #2 or maybe #3 seed. As for the rest of the slate, I only see one real challenging game: March 3 at Maryland. Duke should finish with 27 wins and a 13-3 league mark – not too shabby.

2. Wake Forest (18-5, 8-3)

RESUME: Welcome to the upper tier, for now. Wake posted four wins over the last two weeks, including a testing road win at surging Virginia and convincing home wins over Boston College and (now struggling) Georgia Tech. The Deacons are playing well – thanks largely to guard Ishmael Smith — but they still could defend a little better. Wake is second-to-last in the ACC in points allowed per game at 67.6, and dead last in assist/turnover ratio – meaning their guards need to take better care of the ball, and the defense could stand to put on some more pressure.

FUTURE: A few more wins could get Wake into a top-4 seed, and all five contests left on the slate are very winnable. Watch out for a hot Deacons team as March rolls around…

3. Georgia Tech (17-8, 5-6)

RESUME: The Jackets are really struggling to score of late, failing to break 70 in three of their last four – all losses. The game at Duke was never close, and the game at Miami is not a game a top-tier team should lose. I’ll forgive the loss at Wake Forest, but even Tech’s most-recent win – a 2-point home win over N.C. State – was too close for comfort. Derrick Favors seems to be struggling to find his shot of late, and is being replaced by another freshman whose dad was really good at NBA Jam: Glen Rice Jr.

FUTURE: Last time out, I said Tech’s trip to Duke would tell us a lot, and it told us this team’s not ready. What will Saturday’s trip to Maryland tell us about the Jackets?

PROBABLY SAFE

4. Maryland (17-7, 7-3)

RESUME: The Terps move up from No. 5 to No. 4, and are a near-lock for the dance, but I’m hesitant to boost them into the “Definitely Dancing” category. When you’re a presumptive #8 or #9 seed, a mini-skid could put you back on the bubble again. I’d still like to see Maryland win a truly tough road game, considering the Terps struggled mightily at Clemson and Duke in the last few weeks.

FUTURE: After an easy win Monday night against Virginia, Maryland really doesn’t face a tough road test until the season finale in Charlottesville. But, they still have to face Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech at home. I’m guessing an optimistic 5-2 finish for Maryland, which would make them a safe bet for a top-8 seed in the Big Dance.

5. Clemson (18-7, 6-5)

RESUME: Yes, I know the Tigers beat Maryland, so how do they fall behind the Terps? Four losses out of five didn’t help, including one at Boston College, and home wins over Florida State and Miami don’t exactly send my heart a-flutter. They’ll be in the dance, but for some reason, I see the Tigers as the most vulnerable ACC team in the first round of the tourney.

FUTURE: After hosting Virginia Saturday, Clemson still has to go to Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest, and they host Georgia Tech. I see 2, maybe 3 losses in there. Does a team that goes 8-8 in a weak ACC really impress you that much when it comes time to fill out a bracket? Me neither.

6. Florida State (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Two wins over Georgia Tech, including one on the road, stand out as highlights of the season for the Seminoles so far. While the wins might not be the impressive, FSU’s best attribute right now is a lack of bad losses. A home loss to NC State might be the worst of the bunch, but losses at Florida, Ohio State, Maryland and Duke aren’t anything to worry about.

FUTURE: Three home games out of the next four set up well for FSU, including Maryland on Thursday and Miami on Saturday. FSU needs to stand tall in Tallahassee to stay in this semi-safe tier.

BUBBLY

7. Virginia Tech (20-4, 7-3)

RESUME: Virginia Tech took advantage of a home-heavy slate the last few weeks to nearly lock up a dance card. I’m leaving the Hokies in the “Bubbly” level for now though, because they have been too moody to trust this season. The loss at Miami isn’t a great one, but they bounced back with four average to above-average wins: UNC, Clemson, Virginia and at N.C. State. While I may not really be feeling Clemson come tourney time, I could see a surprise Sweet 16 for the Hokies with the right matchups…

FUTURE: Tech has three home games (Wake Forest, Maryland, N.C. State) and three on the road (Duke, BC, Georgia Tech). They really need to win two of three at home and could use the same on the road. I’m seeing a home loss to Maryland and road loss at Duke. The season finale at Georgia Tech could be a toss-up depending on where the teams are in the standings.

8. Virginia (14-9, 5-5)

RESUME: As of my last report, I was high on the Cavaliers, and assumed they’d climb up a tier this time around. But two losses to Virginia Tech and a loss to Wake Forest and Maryland each were not balanced out by wins over the lackluster N.C. schools.

FUTURE: Right now, Lunardi has Virginia among his first eight out, while our resident bracketologist doesn’t even mention the Cavs. A surprise win over Clemson (2/20), Duke (2/28), or Maryland (3/6) in the next few weeks would help. I still think the ACC could get eight teams, but the Cavs are one team who will likely be rooting for the favorites to win all the smaller conference tourneys.

NIT-PICKING

9. Miami (17-8, 3-8)

RESUME: This is where it starts to pain me to even mention teams as playing postseason games. The fact that Miami will play in the NIT is another reason to HATE the idea of a 96-team Big Dance. Yes, the Canes beat Wake, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, but they won all three of those at home. Miami has TWO road wins this year: Stetson and Pepperdine. Wake me when it’s over, please.

FUTURE: Looking at what’s left, it’s possible Miami could finish the regular season with as many as 21 wins, possibly finishing off the most unimpressive 20-win season in history.

CBI-DREAMING

10. North Carolina (14-11, 3-7)

RESUME: Barring a miracle run in Greensboro, the NCAA Tourney is going to be missing a familiar shade of blue this season, and I’m here to tell you that the world will go on. If they play an NIT game in Chapel Hill, and no one is there to care, did it really happen?

FUTURE: UNC should beat Miami at home, and might win at Boston College on Saturday, but that’s all I’m seeing. They might make the NIT as a good story and extra TV ratings, but that’s about it.

11. N.C. State (14-12, 2-9)

RESUME: Does a resume even matter in this case? Sure, they had a few heartbreakers earlier in the year, but the Wolf Pack need a makeover on both ends of the floor.

FUTURE: One win, maybe two left on the schedule (BC at home, maybe at Miami).

12. Boston College (12-13, 3-8)

RESUME: The Eagles put in a valiant effort against Duke last weekend, but failed to make me look like a genius in my picks.

FUTURE: A home win over North Carolina would be nice, but it’s just playing out the string now.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

So my perfect record in Upset Specials fell by the wayside, as did my hopes of a Beanpot Hockey championship for my alma mater. But BC’s gotta win something this year, right?

• OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 13-7
• UPSET OF THE WEEK: 3-1
• HOCKEY RECORD: 0-1

LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE

• My Prediction: Duke by 4
• Actual Result: Duke by 19

MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE

• My Prediction: Maryland by 2
• Actual Result: Maryland by 4

NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND

• My Prediction: Maryland by 6
• Actual Result: Maryland by 21

LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICKS

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH

• My Prediction: UNC by 3
• Actual Result: Virginia Tech by 4

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE (UPSET SPECIAL)

• My Prediction: Boston College by 2
• Actual Result: Duke by 3

BEANPOT HOCKEY FINAL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY

• My Prediction: BU 4, BC 2
• Actual Result: BC 4, BU 3 (can’t win ’em all)

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (Upset special in italics)

• WAKE FOREST at VIRGINIA TECH, Tuesday, 7 p.m. (ESPN2).  Wake Forest knocks the Hokies closer to the bubble. Wake Forest by 6.
• FLORIDA STATE at VIRGINIA, Wednesday, 7 p.m. (ESPNU).  Virginia needs this one to stay in the discussion. Virginia by 3.
• NORTH CAROLINA at BOSTON COLLEGE, Saturday, Noon (CBS).  I’m including this one only because it’s on national TV. Boston College by 5.
• GEORGIA TECH at MARYLAND, Saturday, 2 p.m.  Maryland makes sure the Jackets remain in a late-season free fall. Maryland by 3.
• VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE, Sunday, 7:45 p.m. (FSN).  I was close last week with my BC over Duke upset special. So I’m trying another one against the Devils. Virginia Tech by 2.

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

After a week away from RTC, I just couldn’t help myself, and decided to come back to bring you up to date on the wacky, wild (and mediocre) ACC. Seriously though, the ACC is proving to be relatively unimpressive this year. We worried about that early in the year – at least I wondered that – and it’s starting to come to fruition as we head into February.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record after games of Monday, Feb. 1)

The rankings will change a little this week, as we try to separate the contenders and pretenders into tiers, based on NCAA Probability: Definite Dancers, Probably Safe, Bubbly, NIT-picking, and CBI-Dreaming:

DEFINITE DANCERS

1. Duke (17-4, 5-2)

RESUME:  Duke is still the best team in the ACC, but they have some serious weaknesses that have shown themselves in recent weeks. First of all, I have always wondered why a big-time program – especially one that is counting on young players as important contributors — would avoid true road games until conference play. And now I have proof. Duke is 1-4 in true road games, posting an impressive win at Clemson while falling at Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Sunday at Georgetown, where they decided not to play defense at all. The Blue Devils are looking more like a #4 or #5 seed than a #1 or #2.

FUTURE: Duke hosts Georgia Tech Thursday in a revenge game that qualifies as the ACC game of the week. They then visit Boston College Saturday. They should win that one too – but that’s a challenging turnaround and trip, so beware, Dookies.

2. Georgia Tech (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Easy wins over Wake Forest and Kentucky State. I didn’t even know there was such a school as Kentucky State. The Jackets hold onto this No. 2 spot, despite the three league losses. But that “impressive” road win at North Carolina a few weeks back isn’t so impressive anymore.

FUTURE: The trip to Cameron on Thursday should tell us a lot about Tech, but possibly more about Duke. A loss there wouldn’t be killer for the Jackets, except that it would be their fourth of the season in the ACC. Yikes.

3. Wake Forest (14-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Three road ACC losses for the Deacons – Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech (last weekend) – and none of them were even close. The win at UNC is looking less impressive by the day, but I still think Wake is definitely in. They could end up seeded anywhere from #3 to #10, but they’re definitely in.

FUTURE: Wake hosts Miami Tuesday and heads to Virginia Saturday. They REALLY could use a 2-0 week to get this thing on the right track.

PROBABLY SAFE (Yes, I know the league will get more than three bids — I’m guessing six. But who those next three teams will be is very much up in the air.)

4. Clemson (16-6, 4-4)

RESUME: That 4-4 league record doesn’t look good, and the Tigers really don’t have many impressive wins (Butler? at Maryland?). But this team has too much talent to not figure things out in the final month of the regular season.

FUTURE: I see at least five wins in the last eight league games, and probably six. A 9-7 league mark and two wins in the ACC tourney should lock up a #7 to #9 seed. Clemson could use a win at Virginia Tech Saturday to get that started, though.

5. Maryland (14-6, 4-2)

RESUME: My preseason pick is showing some signs of life, and should be able to secure a dance ticket. The 9-point loss at Clemson wasn’t great, but recent home wins over NC State and Miami were convincing enough (24 and 22 point margins) to be impressive.

FUTURE: The one issue for Maryland may be its remaining schedule. The Terps still have to play Duke twice, and face some tough road tests, starting Thursday at Florida State.

6. Florida State (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Two wins over Georgia Tech, including one on the road, stand out as highlights of the season for the Seminoles so far. While the wins might not be the impressive, FSU’s best attribute right now is a lack of bad losses. A home loss to NC State might be the worst of the bunch, but losses at Florida, Ohio State, Maryland and Duke aren’t anything to worry about.

FUTURE: Three home games out of the next four set up well for FSU, including Maryland on Thursday and Miami on Saturday. FSU needs to stand tall in Tallahassee to stay in this semi-safe tier.

BUBBLY

7. Virginia (13-6, 4-2)

RESUME: Personally, I think the Cavaliers will end up dancing. One of the unimpressive road losses earlier this year – at South Florida – is starting to look respectable, while many of the other losses were by less than three points. And while UNC is definitely down right now, the 15-point blowout win in Chapel Hill is still worth its weight in gold for fans in Charlottesville.

FUTURE: That said, UVA needs to win both of its games this week: home against NC State Wednesday, and home vs. Wake Forest Saturday. I know Wake is a tough game, but if the Cavs can go 2-0 this week, they might jump up a tier into the nearly-definite dancers.

8.  Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3)

RESUME: I was tempted to only include the Cavaliers on this tier, but I’ll be nice to the Hokies this week. The win at Virginia last week is the only solid road win of the year for Tech (maybe the win at Iowa counts), but a one-point win over struggling BC was a great escape.

FUTURE: This may be the end of Virginia Tech on the bubble, though. The Hokies host UNC and Clemson this week, and I can’t see them winning both. Even one loss (especially if it’s to UNC) could hurt any chance of staying on the bubble.

NIT-PICKING

9. North Carolina (13-8, 2-4)

RESUME: The talking heads on TV are debating whether UNC will miss the dance. I don’t see a debate at all – they are headed to the NIT. The Heels have too much youth, too many blowout home losses, and just too many tough games still to navigate. The wins over Ohio State and Michigan State are nice, as are victories over NC State and Virginia Tech, but the losses are just too hard to ignore. As is the upcoming schedule…

FUTURE: I mean, seriously, if you’ve watched UNC this year, do you really expect them to win more than a few of the remaining games? The Heels still have to go on the road to  Virginia Tech (Thursday), Maryland (Sunday), Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest and Duke. I see maybe three wins out of those six – if they’re lucky. Plus, they still host Duke, Florida State and Miami. UNC will get an NIT invite, obviously, even if it’s just on name alone. But they need a miracle to make the big dance.

10. Miami (16-5, 2-5)

RESUME: Miami will go to the NIT only because it might reach 20 wins, not because any of them were impressive – at all. Sure, there was Minnesota, Wake Forest, and last week vs. Virginia Tech. But everything else on this resume is a total joke, and the remaining schedule takes the ’Canes away from Miami a few times – meaning nearly definite defeats.

FUTURE: Out of nine remaining ACC games, I’m seeing a real chance at just two wins, despite an imbalance of home games. The remaining slate is brutal. The only game where Miami would be favored is home to NC State. The ’Canes still have road games at Wake Forest (Tuesday night), Florida State (Saturday), Clemson and North Carolina. They still have to host Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and Florida State.

CBI-DREAMING

11. NC State (14-8, 2-5)

RESUME: The Wolf Pack have been burned this year by lots of close losses, but as they say, close only matters in horseshoes, hand grenades, and 96-team NCAA Brackets (what a joke). The win over Duke could bump them into the NIT discussion – but only if Duke acts like a top-10 team the rest of the way.

FUTURE: Two road games this week at Virginia (Wednesday) and at Georgia Tech (Saturday), and two likely losses. I really only see two wins out of the remaining nine for NC State (maybe three), which would mean an optimistic final record of 17-14 and 5-11.

12. Boston College (12-10, 3-5)

RESUME: The win over Clemson was followed quickly by a bad home loss to Florida State. BC still hosts Duke and North Carolina, and travels to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The Eagles hockey team also gets to lost to Boston University in next Monday’s Beanpot final – so there’s that. What’s the Beanpot, you ask? Only the coolest in-season college sports tournament in all the land…

FUTURE: The Eagles welcome Duke to Boston on Saturday.

RAMBLING RANT OF THE WEEK

Making a return for this week only, the rant tackles an issue that everyone on this site seems to hate – so I’m jumping on. Why the hell do we need to mess with perfection? A 96-team Tournament? Really? We already have 7, 8 or even 9 teams from one conference going to the dance, including .500 teams from power conferences. It further minimizes the regular season, and throws even more asterisks into the record books. What if Northwestern finally makes the dance after it expands? Do they still celebrate like they would if they made it this year? And how will you feel when 22nd-seeded North Carolina (in a down year) “shocks” No. 3 Kentucky. You’ll feel empty and unmoved, that’s how you’ll feel.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

Considering how topsy-turvy things have been in the ACC this year, my 10-5 mark is quite respectable. But by perfect 3-0 mark in upset picks is pretty awesome, if I do say so myself.

OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 10-5
UPSET OF THE WEEK: 3-0

LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
My Prediction: Virginia Tech by 4
Result: Virginia Tech by 1

DUKE at CLEMSON
My Prediction: Duke by 3
Result: Duke by 13
 
GEORGIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE (Upset of the Week pick)
My Prediction: Florida State by 2
Result: Florida State by 2

LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICK
 
WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA
My Prediction: UNC by 11
Result: Wake Forest by 13
 
VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST
My Prediction: Virginia by 2
Result: Wake Forest by 12

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (Upset special in italics)

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE, Thursday, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Duke takes care of business at home. Duke by 4.

MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE, Thursday, 9 p.m.
Maryland picks up a big win away from home to boost its resume. Maryland by 2.

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH, Thursday, 9 p.m.
I can’t call this an upset, but I see UNC getting this one late. UNC by 3.

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE, Saturday, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
A SHOCKING upset special of the week, but I’m just feeling it. Boston College by 2.

NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND, Sunday, 2 p.m. (FSN)
Maryland completes the best overall week for an ACC team. Maryland by 6.

BONUS PICK (ON ICE)!

BEANPOT HOCKEY FINAL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY, Monday, 8 p.m.
Despite a down year, my alma mater pulls out its 30th Beanpot title in 58 tries. BU 4, BC 2.

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

After weeks and weeks of mediocre matchups, we have FINALLY been rewarded with a big week of games to talk about. So let’s get right to it.

(Plus, my prognostication got off to a great start – just call me Joe Lunardi. Wait, I’m not that nerdy.)

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Tuesday, Jan. 12)

1. Duke (13-2, 1-1)

PAST: The Blue Devils stay atop our rankings, despite the “upset” loss at Georgia Tech (if I see one more person call it an upset – I’m looking at you, ESPN, with your “Upset Alert” – I’m gonna scream). Duke lost to a very good team and in a very tough venue. They showed a few chinks in the armor – namely their lack of any sort of depth – but it was not enough to cost them the top spot here.

FUTURE: Two home games this week – Wednesday against Boston College and Saturday against Wake Forest. Guess which one will be the bigger test?

2. North Carolina (12-4, 1-0)

PAST: We didn’t really have time here last week to talk about the loss at Charleston. Is it one that would bother me if I were a UNC fan? Yes. Would I get hung up on it? Absolutely not. Any time a team like UNC takes a non-traditional road trip like that, the home team and its fans prepare for the biggest game ever on campus. With the players and fans amped up, it’s a tough test for even the best teams. As for Sunday’s win over Virginia Tech? It proved just how experienced and talented teams respond to tough losses.

FUTURE: The Heels face the toughest week of anyone in the league, traveling to Clemson on Wednesday and hosting Georgia Tech on Saturday. If UNC and Duke both go 2-0 this week, we might have a close race atop the rankings.

3. Georgia Tech (12-3, 1-1)

PAST: If the Yellow Jackets had not lost at Georgia, they might have leapt over UNC this week. But Saturday’s win over Duke was enough to make Tech fans forget about that in-state loss. Gani Lawal is emerging as an all-around force, not only scoring 21 points, but also dominating the vaunted Duke frontcourt in the second half, as Georgia Tech out-boarded the Devils 26-12.

FUTURE: After a semi-trap game Wednesday at Virginia, Tech heads to Chapel Hill Saturday for what is easily the ACC game of the week.

4. Wake Forest (11-3, 1-1)

PAST: This is where this gets interesting. I debated bumping Wake down after a one-point loss at Miami, but I’ve never been one to overreact too much to one game, and Wake’s three losses are Purdue, William & Mary and now Miami. They’re on shaky ground here, but I still have faith in the Deacons.

FUTURE: Wake hosts Maryland Tuesday and heads to Duke on Sunday.

5. Miami (15-1, 1-1)

PAST: The Miami win over Wake may not have cost the Deacons a spot, but it bumped the Hurricanes up a few places. Yes, their schedule still stinks, but the Hurricanes proved they can share the court with a real Division I team. Dwayne Collins led the way on Saturday, with 23 and 11, as Miami continued its best start in half a century. But as the schedule proves, that’s all relative.

FUTURE: The ’Canes travel through Virginia this week, facing Virginia Tech on Wednesday and Virginia on Saturday. Both will be tough games, but if Miami wants to be taken seriously in the ACC, they need to win both.

6. Clemson (13-3, 1-1)

PAST: The win over Boston College isn’t enough to bump Clemson up one spot – but everyone else at this mid-level faltered this week, so this was really a process of elimination.

FUTURE: Clemson hosts UNC Wednesday and heads to N.C. State on Saturday.

7. Virginia Tech (12-2, 0-1)

PAST: Yes, I know the Hokies didn’t post a win this week – losing their only game, at North Carolina. But compared to the rest of the middle-ground, I still find the most promise in Blacksburg. Last week, I said I wanted to see how the Hokies fared with a healthy Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson in the lineup. The pair combined for 40 points, but the Hokies let things get away from them in the second half against UNC. Nothing to be ashamed about, especially in Chapel Hill.

FUTURE: The Hokies host Miami Wednesday and head to Florida State Saturday.

8. Florida State (13-3, 1-1)

PAST: In their only game this week, Florida State lost at Maryland. So far, it looks like the same old FSU team: one that struggles away from Tallahassee, and loses to mediocre/good teams.

FUTURE: The Seminoles host N.C. State Tuesday and Virginia Tech Saturday. At least they’re at home.

9. Virginia (9-4, 1-0)

PAST: The Cavaliers posted a very nice comeback win at N.C. State, thanks largely to 23 points from Sylven Landesberg. Virginia is tough to figure out so far, but we should learn more this week…

FUTURE: …with home games vs. Georgia Tech (Wednesday) and Miami (Saturday). A split would be really nice for the Cavaliers, methinks.

10. Maryland (10-4, 1-0)

PAST: A one-spot jump for Greivis Vasquez and Co. after a strong (how strong is to be debated) win over Florida State at home. Maryland nearly let a big lead slip away in that one, and won’t have much time to recover…

FUTURE: … before a Tuesday trip to Wake Forest. They also play at Boston College on Saturday. The Terps desperately need two wins to move up to where I think they belong in these rankings.

11. N.C. State (11-5, 0-2)

PAST: I really do feel for the Wolf Pack. They seem to have some talent, but they keep losing heartbreakers. Now, with a home loss to Virginia, you can add losses they really shouldn’t suffer at all.

FUTURE: The Pack heads to Florida State Tuesday and hosts Clemson Saturday.

12. Boston College (10-6, 1-1)

PAST: The Eagles were never really in it in a 16-point loss at Clemson.

FUTURE: Wednesday’s game at Duke could be ugly. Saturday’s home game against Maryland shouldn’t be close either, but moody Maryland might play down to its competition again.

WEEK THAT WAS…

GANI TIME, GANI-WHERE: Derrick Favors may have gotten all the preseason hype, but try to watch a Georgia Tech game and tell me that Gani Lawal isn’t the most impressive player on the floor. My DVR flamed out for most of the Duke-Georgia Tech game (blame the wife, I was away for the weekend), but I did catch the last 10 minutes or so. And Lawal seemed to have his way with the Duke frontcourt. Sure, Duke missed 22 of its 28 3-pointers, which didn’t help its cause, but with Lawal dominating like this and Favors growing up with each game, Georgia Tech can only get better.

HOW TO TREAT MIAMI?: The Hurricanes are an impressive 15-1, but nearly all of those 15 wins are against the hyphens and ampersands of the world (UNC-Wilmington, USC-Upstate, North Carolina A&T ). This week’s win over Wake Forest was a good place to start, and players like Dwayne Collins, Malcolm Grant and James Dews are talented enough to keep up in the ACC. But no one will believe in the Hurricanes unless they can win some tough ACC games – and do it on the road.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

I went 3-for-5 in my first week, including the Georgia Tech “upset.” From here on in, we’ll keep track of overall win/loss record. And if you want to join in, just add on your predictions to my five games of the week.

LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS

DUKE AT GEORGIA TECH

• My prediction: Georgia Tech by 2
• Actual result: Georgia Tech by 4

FLORIDA STATE at MARYLAND

• My prediction: Maryland by 5
• Actual result: Maryland by 9

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA

• My prediction: North Carolina by 10
• Actual result: North Carolina by 14

LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICKS

VIRGINIA at N.C. STATE

• My prediction: N.C. State by 4.
• Actual result: Virginia by 8

WAKE FOREST at MIAMI

• My prediction: Wake Forest by 8
• Actual result: Miami by 1

THIS WEEK’S PREDICTIONS

MARYLAND at WAKE FOREST (Tuesday, 8 p.m., RAYCOM).  Wake Forest rebounds, and Maryland stays moody: Wake Forest by 9

MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH (Wednesday, 7 p.m.).  Miami realizes what it’s like to play a tough road game, and falls hard: Virginia Tech by 10

NORTH CAROLINA at CLEMSON (Wednesday, 9 p.m., ESPN).  The toughest game to pick of the week. I see UNC eking one out on the road: UNC by 3

GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN).  My upset of the week comes as the Heels come home from Clemson: Georgia Tech by 2

WAKE FOREST at DUKE (Sunday, 8 p.m., FSN).  Duke finds its 3-point stroke, and its frontcourt scoring: Duke by 6

How did the Upset Weekend impact our poll this week?  Since so many teams lost, there wasn’t all that much relative movement.  Analysis after the jump…

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Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

There may not have been a ton of games this week in the ACC, especially games that looked good on paper heading in. But there were more than a few interesting results and developments. So let’s get on with it. Be sure to scroll to the end and see if you can beat my predictions for this week’s biggest games.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Tuesday, Jan. 5)

1. Duke (12-1, 1-0)

PAST:  After splitting the top spot last week with rival UNC, the Blue Devils sit atop this week’s rankings all by themselves. No, it wasn’t the win over Long Beach State or the 59-point demolition of Penn. Duke pretty much dismantled highly regarded Clemson Sunday night, posting a 21-point win that was never even remotely that close. Jon Scheyer is scoring more than enough for Duke, and Kyle Singler and the Devils’ frontcourt proved it could handle a seasoned big man like Trevor Booker. An impressive win, to say the very least.

FUTURE: The Blue Devils face two interesting road tests this week — something they’re not really used to this season. They face Iowa State in Chicago on Wednesday, then head to Georgia Tech for a big date on Saturday. A win there would keep Duke on top of these rankings for another week.

2. North Carolina (11-4, 0-0)

PAST:  Well, there was that Charleston thing on Monday night, but that’s not enough for us to drop them this week. 

FUTURE:  The Heels host Virginia Tech this weekend, leading up to next week’s trip to Clemson and home game against Georgia Tech.

3. Wake Forest (11-2, 1-0)

PAST:  The Deacons take the award for most basketball played this week — and they have two impressive wins to show for it. Wake needed overtime to shake off a very, very good Richmond team on New Year’s Eve (a game I predicted to be a dogfight last week in this space), then went two overtimes to beat Xavier on Sunday in a game I am sad I couldn’t see. More on this game later.

FUTURE:  Fortunately for the tired Deacons, just one game is on the slate this week — a trip to sunny Coral Gables to face Miami on Saturday.

4. Georgia Tech (11-2, 0-1)

PAST:  I won’t waste anyone’s time with details of Tech’s rout of Winston-Salem State, but the 9-point road win at Charlotte is worth mentioning, if only because it was a near disaster. Tech held a 15-point lead in the second half, and needed some big free throws from do-everything-star Gani Lawal to ice it late. Lawal scored 29 points in the win over a good Charlotte team that entered the night with 10 wins.

FUTURE:  A short trip to rival Georgia tonight, then a huge home date with Duke on Saturday afternoon.

5. Florida State (13-2, 1-0)

PAST:  The Seminoles thumped Alabama A&M by 47 points, and followed that up with a 40-point pasting of Texas A&M – Corpus Christi.

FUTURE:   The Seminoles head to Maryland on Sunday.

6. Miami (14-1, 0-1)

PAST:  I almost bumped the Hurricanes up a spot after two more wins this week — except they were against Bethune-Cookman and Pepperdine. No matter the schedule, 14 wins is nothing to laugh at, so beware the ‘Canes as ACC play kicks into gear.

FUTURE:  Saturday’s home game with Wake Forest is one the Hurricanes have to have to be taken seriously as ACC contenders. And I’m gonna predict a win for my new ACC darkhorse (after preseason pick Maryland let me down — big time).

7. Clemson (12-3, 0-0)

PAST:  I really can’t bump Clemson down more than one spot for a loss at Cameron Indoor. But Booker and Co. better find a way to hang around with the ACC’s best if they want to be taken seriously.

FUTURE:  Clemson hosts the ACC’s trainwreck of the year — Boston College — on Saturday. Lose there, and I will find a way to bump the Tigers down more than one spot.

8. Virginia Tech (12-1, 0-0)

PAST:  On the surface, Saturday’s overtime win over Seton Hall in Cancun was nothing exciting. But when you realize that ACC leading scorer Malcolm Delaney missed the game, and Dorenzo Hudson dropped in 41 points, you realize how big a win it was. So far this season, the Hokies have been a one-man show, with Delaney carrying the load. Maybe one or two games without Delaney might be just what Virginia Tech needed with ACC play coming up.

FUTURE:  ACC play couldn’t open in a much tougher fashion for the Hokies, as they head to North Carolina on Sunday. Fortunately, the week-long layoff should be enough time for Delaney’s ankle to heal.

9. N.C. State (10-4, 0-1)

PAST:  Just when you thought last week’s heartbreaker at Arizona was a punch in the gut, N.C. State falls victim to Chandler Parsons’ 75-foot 3-pointer at the overtime buzzer to lose to Florida Sunday night. If you want to be optimistic in the new year, NC State fans, just think that you’ve used up all your bad breaks so far this year, and you’re still 10-4.

FUTURE: The Wolfpack host Holy Cross on Wednesday.

10. Virginia (7-4, 0-0)

PAST: Last week, I said a win for Virginia over UAB would get them out of the cellar. In fact, the 9-point win bumped them up two spots (nearly three, but I just couldn’t pile onto the poor N.C. State fans). The win was easily the biggest ever for coach Tony Bennett in his short career in Charlottesville, with Sylven Landesberg leading the way with 19 points. UAB didn’t help its own cause though, missing 10 of its 15 free throws.

FUTURE: Virginia hosts Texas-Pan American on Tuesday night.

11. Maryland (8-4, 0-0)

PAST:  Maryland, you disappoint me. I piled on the praise in my preview, and thought you were the darlings of the ACC. Then you go out and lose at home to William & Mary. Now I know the Tribe are one of the nation’s top mid-majors this season, but you can’t drop that game at home. Your other three losses (Villanova, Wisconsin, Cincinnati) are nothing to be ashamed of, but this is one the Terps needed to have. Not even a rout of ACC whipping boy UNC-Greensboro on Sunday was enough to help you.

FUTURE:  Maryland hosts Florida State on Sunday.

12. Boston College (9-5, 1-0)

PAST: Just when you thought home losses to Harvard and Rhode Island were bad, the Eagles go and lose — AT HOME — to the University of Maine. This is a team that is not even in the upper echelon of the America East, but the Black Bears still found a way to beat the Eagles at Conte Forum. It’s bad enough for BC fans that the biggest one I know (who also happens to share lots of my DNA) is calling for Al Skinner’s head. Skinner is one of those guys that everyone seems to love, and he has gotten plenty of great years out of teams that no one expected to be great. But it’s hard to ignore these three simple names: Harvard, Rhode Island, and MAINE.

FUTURE: I’ve made this joke before in this space, as BC continues to host what should be easy cupcake opponents in Chestnut Hill. But the Eagles better watch out for NJIT this week. The same NJIT that set the standard for Division I futility. Sorry Eagles fans, but I think you should get comfortable at the bottom of these here rankings.

WEEK THAT WAS…

ACC-TUAL ACC GAMES: Duke’s anticipated date with Clemson turned out to be a real dud on Sunday. The Blue Devils man-handled the Tigers, and proved that their seemingly easy early-season schedule was nothing to laugh at. The frontcourt-heavy Dookies are proving that they can change their style on the fly. Sadly for ACC fans, we have to wait another month for the first Duke-North Carolina game of the season (February 10 in Chapel Hill).

WAKE UP WAKE: The Demon Deacons might be dragging around campus a little bit this week after playing a season’s worth of overtimes in just a few days time. The win over Richmond is nothing to laugh at, especially considering the Spiders are a likely Tournament team. The double-OT shootout with Xavier would have easily been the ACC game of the week, if not for N.C. State’s stunning loss to Florida. Ishmael Smith took over for the Deacons in extra time, dropping nine of his 28 points to cap a 10-for-14 day from the floor. Not only was it a big win for Wake, but it came in the inaugural Skip Prosser Classic, as two programs with direct ties to the late coach got together for a whale of a game.

HOKIE, HOKIE, HIGH: Sadly, because of my paying job (blogging just isn’t profitable), I was only able to watch pieces of a few ACC games this week. One that I did catch most of happened to be Virginia Tech-Seton Hall. At first, I was disappointed not to get a chance to watch Malcolm Delaney play, but Dorenzo Hudson made me forget about that in a heartbeat. Hudson made shots from all over the floor, and literally strapped the Hokies to his back in the second half and overtime. His 41 points was the best scoring effort at Virginia Tech since Bimbo Coles in 1990 – now there’s a name from my childhood. This kid could be a true ACC star in the coming years, and if he can find a way to be a complement to a healthy Delaney, the Hokies could be trouble for the rest of the league.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

With conference play really getting under way, we’ll highlight a few (hopefully five each week) specific games in this space (in chronological order), and have a little fun with predictions. Predicting final scores is crazy, but I’ll try to give you the winner and a margin of victory. Each week we’ll keep track of my overall record, and the +/- on my scoring margins. Feel free to play along in the comments and pick the same games as I do. The winner will get the greatest prize in the world: my undying respect

VIRGINIA at N.C. STATE – Saturday, Noon (RAYCOM): Lady Luck has gotta side with the Wolfpack at some point, right? Unfortunately, they get to open up the year of conference play with a tough game against a surprising Virginia team that just posted a top-25 win over UAB. I see the Pack rising to the challenge, and posting an important home win over the Cavaliers.

PREDICTION: N.C. State by 4

DUKE at GEORGIA TECH — Saturday, 2 p.m. (ESPN): After Sunday’s Duke/Clemson showdown turned into a rout, here’s hoping the Yellow Jackets can put up a fight. The frontcourt matchup should be fun to watch, as Singler, Scheyer and the big men try to figure out Lawal, Derrick Favors and Georgia Tech. I’m going with the Yellow Jackets in a semi-surprise.

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech by 2

WAKE FOREST at MIAMI – Saturday, 6 p.m. (ESPNU): The Hurricanes will finally get to see what a real opponent looks like, but they get to do it at home. Unlike some, I won’t completely disregard the Hurricanes’ 14-1 record on account of their joke schedule, but I don’t expect the Deacons to play their third-straight close game. Wake wins this one relatively easily.

PREDICTION: Wake Forest by 8

FLORIDA STATE at MARYLAND – Sunday, 5:30 p.m. (FSN): The Terrapins’ pre-conference slate has been one to forget, and they need this win much more than the Seminoles. I expect Maryland to find its stride and pick up a critical victory.

PREDICTION: Maryland by 5

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA – Sunday, 7:45 p.m. (FSN): If Delaney’s ankle heals, and Hudson continues his strong play, the Hokies could make this interesting. But I see the Heels running away with it at the end.

PREDICTION: North Carolina by 10

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

First, let me apologize for the delay in this week’s ACC update. I got a concussion Christmas Eve and Mike Leach locked me in a closet because I wouldn’t go back to practice. Oh well, these things happen.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Monday, Dec. 28)

1A. Duke (9-1, 0-0)

PAST:  No games last week. (And yes, I took the easy way out and did the 1A/1B thing.)

FUTURE: The Blue Devils face Long Beach State tonight and Penn on New Year’s Eve (double-yawn) before hosting Clemson in the first real anticipated league game of the year (more on that later).

1B. North Carolina (10-3, 0-0)

PAST:  Most people expected sophomore Ed Davis to lead the young Tar Heels this year, but he has possibly exceeded expectations so far, including this week, as UNC rolled over Marshall and Rutgers. He’s shooting an absurd 66% from the field, and ranks second in the ACC with 6.7 rebounds per game.

FUTURE:  UNC wraps up its pre-conference slate with two games – home against Albany on Wednesday, and a tricky road game at the College of Charleston next Monday.

3. Wake Forest (9-2, 1-0)

PAST:  Easy win over UNC-Greensboro Monday night.

FUTURE:  The Deacons better be ready for their New Year’s Eve date with Richmond. The Spiders already scalped Florida this year, and as is often the case in these regional big fish/small fish games, Richmond will be up for this game more than any other this season. It doesn’t get easier for Wake Forest on Sunday, when Xavier comes to town. A 2-0 week will be a big victory for the Deacons heading into ACC play.

4. Georgia Tech (9-2, 0-1)

PAST:  Tech rolled over Kennesaw State.

FUTURE:  The Jackets host Winston-Salem State today and then travels to Charlotte on Saturday.

5. Florida State (11-2, 1-0)

PAST:  With an easy win over Tennessee-Martin, the Seminoles stay at No. 5 – for now.

FUTURE:  Upcoming dates with Alabama A&M and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won’t say anything about FSU. A Jan. 10 trip to Maryland will.

6. Clemson (11-2, 0-0)

PAST:  The Tigers took care of Western Carolina last Tuesday.

FUTURE:  Clemson hosts in-state rival (tongue in cheek) South Carolina State tonight before heading to Duke on Sunday.

7. Miami (12-1, 0-1)

PAST:  Miami rolled over North Carolina A&T.

FUTURE:  After they take care of Bethune Cookman Wednesday, the Hurricanes travel to Pepperdine. Winter in Malibu. Tough life.

8. Virginia Tech (10-1)

PAST:  The Hokies flat-out embarrassed the Retrievers of UMBC last week in a 71-34 victory.

FUTURE:  Tech plays Longwood Wednesday, then travels to Cancun for an interesting game against Seton Hall Saturday.

9. Maryland (8-3, 0-0)

PAST:  The Terps recorded two cupcake wins this week, but had a relatively close call in a 13-point win over Florida Atlantic. Greivis Vasquez continues to lead Maryland, and was named ACC Player of the Week, but he was without second-leading scorer Sean Mosely, who sat out with a sprained ankle.

FUTURE:  Maryland hosts William & Mary Wednesday and travels to UNC-Greensboro on Sunday.

10. N.C. State (8-3, 0-1)

PAST:  The Wolfpack dropped a heartbreaker at Arizona on Wednesday, as the Wildcats pulled off their second-straight buzzer-beating win.

FUTURE:  N.C. State hosts Winthrop tonight then plays at UNC-Greensboro on New Year’s Eve. I swear, UNC-Greensboro should just join the ACC already.

11. Boston College (8-4, 1-0)

PAST:  Someone please explain this team to me. Home losses to Harvard and Rhode Island. Road wins at Providence and Michigan. And a convincing home win over UMass this week. You figure it out.

FUTURE:  Interesting home game with South Carolina Wednesday night.

12. Virginia (6-4, 0-0)

PAST:  Virginia routed NJIT and Hampton by a combined score of 148-91. Wake me when it’s over.

FUTURE:  The Cavs host a very good UAB team Wednesday night. A win here would definitely help Virginia get out of the ranking cellar.

WEEK THAT WAS…

• DESERT DRAMA: There was only one game worth talking about this week, and that was N.C. State’s 76-74 loss to Arizona. The Wolfpack made a furious comeback from eight points down with 37 seconds left, but played some pretty porous defense in the final seconds as Arizona’s Nic Wise pulled a Tyus Edney for a coast-to-coast game-winning layup. Javier Gonzalez was impressive for the Wolfpack, who deserve credit for a tough trip out west while the rest of the ACC was fattening up on garbage games.
• RAMBLING RANT OF THE WEEK:  What’s the deal with UNC-Greensboro? I understand that the poor Spartans have a short trip to almost every ACC school, and can fatten their athletic wallet with games in ACC gyms. But they’ve gotta grow tired of this, right? Greensboro plays 13 non-league games this season, and six of them come against ACC foes. The Spartans have already lost to Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Wake Forest by a combined score of 319-235, and still have to face N.C. State and Maryland this week. To add to their misery, the Spartans have also been thumped by Richmond (26 points), Akron (24 points) and East Carolina (21 points). I’d love to hear that recruiting pitch…

WAITING IN THE TUNNEL…

• REAL LEAGUE GAME ALERT!:  With Clemson heading to Duke on Sunday (7:45 pm), we can FINALLY see what these teams are made of. A Clemson win would be enormous for the Tigers, but just seeing an exciting game would be a moral victory for Clemson (and a win for hoops fans still sleeping off Duke’s snoozefest with Gonzaga). How will Trevor Booker and the Clemson frontcourt deal with Brian Zoubek, Miles Plumlee and the Duke big men? It’ll be nice to have real games to watch – finally.
• DAUNTING FOR DEACONS: Wake Forest has a tough twinbill this week with surprising Richmond and a very good and physical Xavier squad. Two wins will be huge, especially with three of their next four league games coming on the road at Miami, Duke and North Carolina. Ouch.
• WORTH WATCHING: Three teams from the mid- to lower-half of the league face interesting nonleague tests – Virginia Tech vs. Seton Hall (Saturday); B.C. vs. South Carolina (Wednesday); Virginia vs. UAB (Wednesday).

Happy New Year!

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

To call last week’s slate a light one in the ACC would be like saying Roy Williams is a little bit sensitive — it’s a drastic understatement (more on that in a minute). Only 11 games were played by ACC teams this week, and most were completely uninteresting. But there were two games of note…

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Sunday, Dec. 13)

1. North Carolina (8-2, 0-0)

PAST: The Tar Heels destroyed Presbyterian on Saturday, 103-64. But Roy Williams turned it into a story, anyway, even though he said to “not make it bigger than it is.” More on that later.

FUTURE: UNC travels to Austin, Texas for a showdown with the Longhorns on Saturday. UNC not only sits atop these rankings, but continues to play the most must-watch games in the ACC. It’s not even close.

2. Duke (7-1, 0-0)

PAST: Did not play this week

FUTURE: Duke warms up its week with Gardner-Webb at Cameron on Tuesday, before playing a very good Gonzaga team at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. You better not make any plans on Saturday, with UNC-Texas at 2:00 (ESPN) and Duke-Gonzaga at 4:00 (CBS).

3. Georgia Tech (6-1)

PAST: Did not play this week

FUTURE: The Jackets play a non-traditional ROAD game AT Chattanooga tonight, before hosting Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Wednesday.

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Sunday you were probably there with every other college sports fan glued to your television at 8 pm as the bowl pairings were announced, right?  Orrrr… not, as it came in dead last in its time slot on Fox.  So why weren’t you there with your pencil and brackets bowl matchup worksheets in hand?  Because you knew that there is only one more college football game that matters this season, and you already knew who was playing for it (i.e., traditional powers Alabama and Texas).  Other than to the fans of the individual schools who can take a holiday-season vacation to (hopefully) a warmer clime, the other 477 bowls are utterly meaningless to the crowning of a national champion, a jury-rigged travesty that continues to barf on itself seemingly every year as teams who win every single one of their games are considered unworthy for a shot at the ultimate prize (particular hilarity reserved for when a non-trad BCS team such as Cincinnati is left out).

Why Mess With Perfection?

We Can Actually Learn Something From NCAA Football… Well, Sorta

The best argument that the BCS apologists make every year is that their system values the regular season, and this is true to a certain extent.  The problem is that it overvalues the regular season at the expense of the postseason.  It values the regular season so much that it excludes worthy teams from its national championship picture based on ambiguous metrics that include computer rankings and vaguely-tuned in coaches and sportswriters who have been shown to not put equitable and informed efforts into their ballots.  Consider that last year’s basketball computer rankings — both Sagarin and KenPom — could have placed Memphis against UNC in the “BCS title game” at the end of the regular season.  Given their personnel losses, did anyone actually believe Memphis was a Final Four team last year, much less a title contender?  Of course not.  Thank goodness for small favors… and the NCAA Tournament.

This is why, when those of us who favor a college football playoff argue in favor of it, we push for an 8-team or 16-team playoff.  Like the current format of the NCAA Tournament, such an entity would allow for every realistic potential NCAA football champion to have a shot at glory.  Cincy, Boise and TCU this year – check.  Utah last year – check.  Boise again in 2006 – check.  And so on back through the running comedy that has been the BCS over the last twelve years.  The reason that we support this system (over a 32-team playoff, for example) is that it allows for college football to crown a tested and worthy champion while also respecting the integrity of a national championship by only including deserving and excellent teams.

70% of BCS Teams Do Not Belong in the NCAA Tournament

When we read today that the NCAA is considering expansion of March Madness to 96 teams from its current 65, effectively folding the NIT into the Big Dance and adding another week to the Tournament, we really cannot get on board with this idea.  Why not?  Because put simply, the additional teams that will be invited are not worthy.  Every year there are certainly a few bubble teams that have a great case for inclusion in the field of 65; but there aren’t 32 of them, and if we add another layer of middling BCS teams, we only serve to cheapen what is right now the greatest spectacle for excitement in all of sports while simultaneously further minimizing the importance of the regular season.  Seriously, why even have a 16-game ACC schedule if you’ll get a bid by winning six or seven games?

Only a Handful of Bubble Teams Deserve Entry

Let’s look at this from a numbers perspective.  Consider last year’s NIT field (presumably the #66-#97-ranked teams, discounting for the regular season champion clause).  We’ll focus exclusively on BCS teams here because they are the most likely beneficiaries of the new setup.  By our calculation, if the 2009 NCAA Tournament had included the NIT field, almost half (15) of the additional teams would have come from the BCS conferences, which would mean that FIFTY-ONE of the SEVENTY-THREE (70%) BCS conference teams would have been invited to the NCAA Tournament.  So what’s the profile threshold that would have gotten you a bid last year using this format?

• Bubble Team (19-12, 9-10) – the typical team in this group lost to nearly everyone they were supposed to, beat very few elite teams, and mostly built up the majority of their wins in a soft nonconference schedule.  They finished anywhere between 7th-10th in their conference and, on average, won one game in the conference tournament.  There was nothing particularly interesting or compelling about any of these teams, and the odds of any of them making a run to the Round of 32, much less the Sweet Sixteen, would have been minimal.  See below breakdown for a detailed look at the fifteen BCS teams that would have been invited last season.

So why add them?  The answer that the coaches want to expand the NCAA Tournament is not satisfactory (of course they do!).  The answer that media executives also want to expand it also falls on deaf ears (they are selling a product and can’t be relied upon to act in the best interests of the game).  Whoever is seriously listening to this idea really needs to be removed from his or her post.  Why would you mess with something that already works so damn well?  As Mike DeCourcy so succinctly put it in today’s article, this is a “horrible idea” and would end up being a “disaster.”  Couldn’t agree more, Mike.

2009 NIT BCS Team Breakdown

*note – all records and stats are prior to the 2009 NIT (conf reg season finish)

ACC – 7 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams

• Virginia Tech (18-14, 8-10) – lost 7 of their last 9 games (t-7).
• Miami (FL)  (18-12, 7-10) – lost 8 of their last 12 games (t-7).

Big East – 7 NCAA teams, 3 NIT teams

• Georgetown (16-14, 7-12) – is this a joke?  Georgetown couldn’t beat anyone in the Big East; finished 4-11 in their last fifteen games. (t-11)
• Notre Dame (18-14, 9-11) – ND at one point lost seven Big East games in a row; five of their final six wins were against teams rated #80 or below. (t-9)
• Providence (19-13, 11-9) – at least PC had a winning Big East record, right? (t-7)

Big Ten – 7 NCAA teams, 2 NIT teams

• Penn State (22-11, 11-9) – PSU had a reasonable argument for inclusion last year with their resume, and they showed it by winning the NIT. (t-4)
• Northwestern (17-13, 8-11) – NW did not and their resume was in no way supportive of an NCAA berth last year. (9)

Big 12 – 6 NCAA teams, 3 NIT teams

• Kansas State (21-11, 9-8) – K-State is another bubble team that could have arguably received a bid to the Big Dance last year (t-4).
• Baylor (20-14, 8-12) – Baylor, on the other hand, went 2-10 in their last twelve regular season games prior to making a Big 12 Tourney run (10).
• Nebraska (18-12, 8-9) – lost five of their last eight and was sorely lacking in quality wins over the course of the season (9).

Pac-10 – 6 NCAA teams, 1 NIT team

• Washington State (17-15, 9-11) – a mediocre Pac-10 team who lost to nearly every good team it played last season. (7)

SEC – 3 NCAA teams, 4 NIT teams

• South Carolina (21-9, 10-7) – best wins of the year were against who?  Kentucky and Florida? (t-1 East)
• Auburn (22-11, 11-7) – at least the Tigers finished strong, winning 9 of their last 11 games. (2 West)
• Florida (23-10, 10-8) – again, the Gators beat and lost to a bunch of other mediocre SEC teams – how is that NCAA-worthy? (3 East)
• Kentucky (20-13, 9-9) – losing 8 of their final 11 regular season games does not an NCAA team make. (t-4 East)

Out of the above group, there are maybe 3-4 teams that had a reasonable argument to be included in the field of 65 teams.  Other than that, do we really want teams like the 2009 versions of Georgetown, Kentucky, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Miami (FL), and Baylor getting bids to the Big Dance?  Let those teams stay in the NIT where they belong.  Please.

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the ACC.

A few interesting games in the last week (mostly by those wearing Carolina blue), and the debut of conference play. And yes, I know the ACC lost the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but that has a lot to do with the matchups, and a weak lower tier of the ACC. More on that below. Let’s get right to the rankings:

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record as of Monday, Dec. 7)

1. North Carolina (7-2, 0-0)

PAST: The Tar Heels slide just past Duke this week (barely), despite a tough loss at Kentucky on Saturday. Deon Thompson and Will Graves led a valiant second-half rally for UNC, but a loss in Lexington is nothing to be ashamed of right now. Oh, and there was that up-and-down, 89-82 shootout win over Michigan State. So there’s that.

FUTURE: After a double-dip week like that, UNC deserves a week off, and they’ll get it. The Heels host Presbyterian on Saturday. But another test awaits at Texas on Dec. 19.

2. Duke (7-1, 0-0)

PAST: Don’t go crazy there, Dookies. I know you were No. 1 last week, and losing on the road to a Bo Ryan-coached Wisconsin team isn’t anything to worry about. Heck, just getting back safely from Madison in December is a victory. But you did let St. John’s back in the game on Saturday, and have shown a few chinks in the armor – like the inability to shoot? Duke ranks 10^th in the ACC in shooting percentage, shooting just 45%.

FUTURE: Duke does not play at all this week, before facing Gardner-Webb and Gonzaga (at MSG).

3. Georgia Tech (6-1)

PAST: Wins over Siena and USC came by an average of 19.5 points, and the Jackets’ defense continues to impress. With Derrick Favors (2.1 blocks per game), Gani Lawal (10.3 rebounds/game), Tech controls the middle. The perimeter defense ain’t bad either, as teams are shooting less than 25% from beyond the arc against the Wreck.

FUTURE: No games this week for the Jackets, with two cupcakes the week after.

4. Wake Forest (5-2, 0-0)

PAST: The Deacons lost at Purdue, while last week’s No. 4, Clemson, lost at Illinois. No shame in either loss, but Wake’s big win at Gonzaga on Saturday earns the rankings bump. There are not many trips in America tougher than one to Spokane, especially when going cross-country and coming off that loss to Purdue. Wake is holding opponents to just 36% shooting, and Al-Farouq Aminu is averaging more than 10 boards per game.

FUTURE: No games this week, and – in all honesty – no real challenges until 2010.

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The sports world may have told us that this was a college football weekend, but we know better, right?

CHEERS

That Kentucky vs. UNC is Meaningful Again.  Now that John Calipari is at Kentucky and his Cats are ranked in the Top 10 with a legitimate shot at postseason glory for the first time in a long while, it’s good to have this game on the early-season schedule.  UK rode a masterful 28-2 run to build an early 19-point lead behind John Wall’s 16/5/7 assts even though he spent much of the game cramping up, and the record crowd of 24k+ at Rupp Arena loved it… until UNC got their young legs settled in the second half, and a late 12-1 run got the Heels within one bucket with 0:33 remaining.  Eric Bledsoe and John Wall made five pressure-filled FTs to close it out 68-66 and UK moved to 8-0 on the season while UNC fell to 7-2.  One thing was clear, though — both of these teams are going to get a lot better before March – can we set a rematch in Indy on Semifinal Saturday four months from now?

Oregon State.  For putting an end to the discussion that was already gurgling (ahem) about the Pac-10 getting swept in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.  The Beavers defeated Colorado 74-69 on Friday night to give the Pac-10 its first win in the Series, and through the weekend games, only Cal’s dominant home victory over Iowa State was the other.  The Big 12 now leads 8-2 in the matchup, and with two games remaining at Pac-10 venues, we’re still not coinvinced that the league will get another win (Oklahoma State @ Stanford & Texas A&M @ Washington).

Reggie Jackson. It didn’t count, but lordy…  Jackson damn near brough the entire world down with this ridiculous dunk (below) at the end of the BC-Miami (FL) game on Sunday.   Still, Jackson dropped 18/9 in a conference opener for both teams that showed both of these teams will be heard from in the ACC this season.  BC dominated the glass 43-19, but it was Jackson’s FTs (not a dunk) with three seconds remaining that gave BC the home win to go to 1-0 in league play.

Dunk to Win.  How about a dunk that did count?  On Saturday afternoon, Ole Miss’ Eniel Polynice broke free for a throwdown right before the buzzer that ended up being the winning margin, 81-79, over Southern Miss.  This was the capper on a wild game that saw the 7-1 Rebels come back from six pts down in the final minute to take the lead and win the game on that dunk.  We’ve yet to find online video of this play but it’s really impressive, so if someone finds it a link to the dunk only, please let us know.  Chris Warren added 20/6 assts for Ole Miss, while Gary Flowers contributed 20/8  for Southern Miss.  Afterwards, USM coach Larry Eustachy found time to throw Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury under the bus for not playing his team.  Good times.

JEERS

Gravity.  If you haven’t heard by now, Ohio State superstar Evan Turner took a nasty spill after attempting a dunk in the first few minutes of the Buckeyes’ 111-60 mauling of Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon.  He landed on the small of his back and broke two vertebrae which will shelve the early-season leading candidate for NPOY for at least eight weeks.  Ohio State will undoubtedly have trouble recovering from his loss during that time.  For a more detailed description and video of the fall, see our report from Saturday.

A 22-point Half.  You probably missed this on Friday night, but we didn’t.  Pitt and New Hampshire tried their best to set the game back fifty years with a wretched offensive performance during a 15-7 first half.  You read that right.  15-7.  The 22 combined points was the lowest for a half in the shot-clock era, which began in 1985.  It may as well have been 1955, though, as Pitt won 47-32 with the two teams combining for 31% shooting and Pitt in particular getting almost all of its points from two players — 23 from Ashton Gibbs and 19 from Brad Wanamaker.  In fact, the entire Pitt front line contributed a total of three points.  We’re not sure what exactly caused this, guys, but let’s please not let this happen again, ok?

She Looks Different With the Lights On.  Nouveaux-riche WCC powers Portland and San Diego are learning what it’s like to be Gonzaga after all these years.  Just one week after one of the most successful weekends in both schools’ basketball history, the giant red target that was placed squarely on their backs is weighing down both teams.  On Sunday, both teams took blowout losses at the hands of schools that were clearly fired up to get a shot at a team playing with the big boys into their arena.  Portland, the media RTC darling of a week ago,  lost its second straight game to a middie after finishing as the runner-up to West Virginia in the 76 Classic.  Idaho ran out to a 16-pt first-half lead and never looked back, holding Portland to 32% shooting and 6-22 from deep.  Things have been even worse for San Diego since returning as the runner-up in the Great Alaska Shootout.  The Toreros have dropped three straight games, including Friday night’s loss to UC Riverside and a 37-pt  (19% FG) stinker on Sunday at Fresno State (note: Brandon Johnson did miss the game for disciplinary reasons, but SD was still down 38 pts in this one at one time – ugh).  It was Idaho’s first win over a ranked team in 27 years and Fresno’s first win in five tries.  Both of these WCC teams are going to need to right the ship in home games this week (Denver and New Mexico, respectively) or be considered irrelevant by Christmas after such good starts.

Weekend Upsets.

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