1. Louisville got some great news on Friday when the NCAA announced that it was clearing Wayne Blackshear to play after reviewing some of his academic paperwork. As it stands now the Cardinals have a very deep team, but lack the star power that many of the teams above them have. Once he gets back in shape, Blackshear (a McDonald’s All-American who averaged 32.6 PPG and 14.6 RPG as a high school senior in Chicago) could be the piece that helps lift them from a potential Sweet 16 team to a truly elite team. With Blackshear joining Chane Behanan the Cardinals should have one of the more electric freshmen duos in the nation that could potentially propel them to the next level.
2. Like Louisville, Xavier also picked up a big piece when they reinstated senior center Kenny Frease after suspending him nine days earlier for “not fulfilling all the responsibilities of a Xavier basketball player”. Apparently, he learned to fulfill those responsibilities pretty quickly. Although Xavier coach Chris Mack claims that the suspension was “tough” for Frease we are assuming he will be able to overcome the trauma of not participating in Midnight Madness. If Frease can continue to fulfill his responsibilities (whatever they were) and build on a strong junior season (11.7 PPG and 7.1 RPG) the Musketeers could have a legitimate shot at making it into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament and making some noise there.
3. It may just be posturing, but Gary Harris Jr. does not have a top choice according to his father despite Indiana fans insisting that he is definitely going to be a Hoosier. Instead, Indiana is among four schools that Harris is considering at this time with Kentucky, Michigan State, and Purdue being the other three. Harris is the final piece of a class that Tom Crean is using to reestablish the Hoosiers as the dominant school for recruiting in the state of Indiana after they failed to keep many of the top recruits in-state for the past decade. If Crean is able to get Harris to commit to Indiana he will have secured all three five-star recruits in the state (Hanner Perea and Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell have already committed) at which point the Indiana hype machine would go into overdrive along with the expectations for Crean for the next four years.
4. Seth Davis drops in on Syracuse to take a look at one of the more interesting teams in the country. As Davis notes, Jim Boeheim calls this year’s team, “the best team we’ve had in a long time”, and the polls seem to agree ranking the Orange 5th in the country. For a team that returns nine of its top ten scorers on a team that went 26-7 last year before losing in the third round of the NCAA Tournament and adds two McDonald’s All-Americans, it seems reasonable to expect this team to contend for a national title. However, like Davis, we get this strange feeling that Syracuse lacks the elite talent to be a national title favorite at this point. It is possible that someone could breakout and have a huge season, but looking through their roster I don’t see anybody who will take over a game. Unfortunately, we probably will not get an idea of how good this team is until later in the year due to their atrocious non-conference schedule as they only play one good team (Florida) before they start Big East play and that game is being played in Syracuse.
5. You may be familiar with the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective from their work last year on whether or not a team should foul when up by three points at the end of the game. While that piece got a lot of attention from the national media and was even discussed on television a few times, they do put out work fairly frequently that does not get the same level of attention, but is still quite interesting. Their most recent piece is an attempt to answer the question of whether or not Vegas gets more accurate with college basketball lines as the season progresses. It certainly will not generate as much attention as the previously mentioned post, but it is interesting for those that like to follow lines for “academic purposes”.

Pack your bags and get ready for some basketball!  Everything you need to know about the preseason basketball tournaments involving SEC East teams this season are right here… Well, everything except local travel arrangements and restaurant suggestions. Get ready for remote and beautiful destinations such as Maui, Hawaii; Kansas City, Missouri; somewhere in Connecticut; and East Rutherford, New Jersey. We can only hope that the basketball being played is as stunning as the scenery. If you’re ready to hit the Motel 6 in your city of choice and watch some great hoops then we have you covered with the rest of the details. Just don’t forget to leave the light on.

Progressive CBE Classic

• The  field: *Missouri,  *Georgia, *Notre Dame, *California, Austin Peay, Bowling Green, Detroit, George Washington, Mercer, Niagara, Sam Houston State, South Dakota State (*automatically advances to championship round)
• Dates: November 13 – 17, 2011; Championship rounds – November 21 & 22, 2011
• Location: Kansas City, MO
• 1st round Matchup: Georgia vs. California
• Potential Later Round Matchups: Georgia vs. Notre Dame or Georgia vs. Missouri
• Thoughts: In the opening round of championship play, Georgia plays a Golden Bears team that should challenge Arizona and UCLA to win the Pac-12. Cal returns three double figure scorers from last year and looks to build upon a fourth place finish. Meanwhile, Georgia lost Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins as early entries into the NBA draft. Mark Fox’s Bulldogs will be looking for leadership and scoring, and could find both in freshman McDonald’s All American Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Win or lose, Georgia will be matched up with either the Fighting Abromaitis’ team of Notre Dame or the Missouri Tigers. Missouri has outstanding guard play and will test Georgia’s young back court. Tim Abromaitis is a 6’8″ bruiser who will challenge the void left down low by the losses of Leslie and Thompkins.
• Prediction:  Georgia drops both to come back to Athens 0-2.

EA Sports Maui Invitational

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1. Rally the troops! Sound the Horn of Nerdfighting and CHARGE! The ESPN/USA Today Preseason Top-25 poll has been released! The Southeastern Conference has four members on the list: Kentucky at #2 (with one 1st place vote), Vanderbilt at #7, Florida at #10 and Alabama at #17. (Future SEC member Texas A&M checks in at #19.) Mississippi State was the only other SEC school receiving votes from the coaches.
2. Returning all five starters helped Vanderbilt garner their highest Preseason Top-25 ranking since 1965. Those 1965-66 Commodores, led by legendary coach Roy Skinner, were coming off their first NCAA Tournament Elite Eight appearance. This year’s Vanderbilt team has been upset in the past two NCAA Tournaments, leaving some observers to doubt their ability to make a serious run for the NCAA title. Others, such as CBS Sportsline’s Gary Parrish thinks Vandy had enough offensive talent and experience to advance further than the First Second Round. (Our very own Brian Joyce should soon have an interesting analysis of Vandy’s ability to succeed in the postseason. Keep yer eyes peeled!)
3. After many years of success and orange body paint, it seems strange not seeing Tennessee listed on this Preseason Top 25 list. Their omission is understandable: Hitting the reset button to expunge the Bruce Pearl era, new Volunteers head coach Cuonzo Martin faces a strong schedule with a hodge-podge of athletic players who don’t exactly fit his system. After many years of being the big hounds on the block, Vols fans will need to change to root for the underdogs of the SEC East. One way to start will be getting ticket sales back on track.
4. Mississippi State basketball fans have more to look forward to than a fitter Renardo Sidney and a team that has the potential to make all sort of noise come March. This is the 100th season of Bulldog basketball! (Please, don’t ring all your cowbells at once. It’s early.) The MSU Athletic Department has compiled a list of twenty All-Century team members: modern members include the versatile Mario Austin, incredible marksman Dontae’ Jones and swat-machines Jarvis Varnado and Erick Dampier. MSU fans can select the starting five from all these All-Century team members and the top five greatest games of Mississippi State history. Sounds like a fun start to a great year’s worth of events.
5. Early in the 2011-12 team practice season there still remains more questions than answers for South Carolina. With only nine scholarship players, Coach Darrin Horn admitted to the media on Wednesday that he has yet to find a starting five players for his team. Horn’s challenge, he says, is that he has seven players that could start on any given night. The USC blog Garnet and Black Attack has speculated on a regular starting rotation that includes improving sophomore center/forward Damontre Harris and highly-regarded freshmen shooting guard Damien Leonard. The Gamecocks are currently practicing without point guard Bruce Ellington as he finishes the season for the Gamecock football team. With Ellington’s role on the football team possibly increasing due to the season-ending injury to running back Marcus Lattimore, Coach Horn may not know how much he will be able to play Ellington once he rejoins the basketball team. Horn is currently encouraged by the offensive effectiveness he’s seen in practice thus far but reincorporating his only returning experienced scorer remains a mystery.

1. Iona got some great news yesterday when the NCAA announced that it would grant a hardship waiver to Arizona transfer Lamon “Momo” Jones making him eligible to play for the Gaels during the upcoming season. Jones, who reportedly left Arizona to be closer to his sick grandmother, averaged 9.7 PPG and 2.7 APG as the starting guard for the Wildcats. Interestingly, he joins a team that is talented enough that he may not even be the starting point guard as the team has all-MAAC senior Scott Machado (13.2 PPG and 7.6 APG) returning. Gaels coach Tim Cluess does not appear to be worried about his embarrassment of riches at point guard as may play the two together. The addition of Jones makes an already potent offense even more terrifying. It also make the Gaels an even heavier favorite in the MAAC and arguably the best team in the New York City area.
2. We missed this last night, but we have to congratulate the ACC for calling out Notre Dame and essentially telling them that the Fighting Irish either join the ACC in all sports (including football where they have a ridiculous contract with NBC and a BCS loophole) or they can forget about joining the conference for any other sports. We have nothing against Notre Dame as an institution and particularly as a basketball team, but their bizarre relationship with the Big East always seemed strange to us and has adversely affected the Big East. Now the conference is on the verge of falling apart and Notre Dame like other schools is grovelling at the feet of other conferences. In the current climate, it is unrealistic for Notre Dame or any other school to expect a conference particularly one in a position of power to have terms dictated to it. While some Irish fans may have a difficult time accepting the new reality, it appears that some local writers are urging them to think about the future and stop living in the past.
3. California basketball coach Mike Montgomery underwent surgery for an undisclosed condition yesterday. Neither the school nor Montgomery disclosed any information about the surgery or condition other than to say the surgery was “successful”. There is no definitive time table for Montgomery’s return, but he hopes to be to return by November 1 for the team’s exhibition opener. In the interim, assistant coaches Jay John and Travis DeCuire will assume Montgomery’s responsibilities. We wish Montgomery a speedy recovery and hope to see him on the sidelines in the next few weeks.
4. The US Basketball Writers Association issued its preseason list for the Wayman Tisdale Award, which is given annually to the top freshman in the country. This year’s list features 12 freshman, who if you have followed recruiting at all you are familiar with even before the season starts. We cannot argue with any of the names included, but we do find it interesting that three Kentucky players made the list. In our eyes, the favorite are (in alphabetical order) Bradley Beal, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Austin Rivers. Having seen the rest of these guys play and knowing what we know about the situations they will be playing in we have a hard time seeing any of the other players making a serious run at this unless their games improved significantly over the summer.
5. It seems like every day a new violation gets reported. Most of the time they are relatively minor, but like the one that Bob Knight apparently committed they are violations and deserve a reprimand at the very least. Of course, there are the violations that some fans try to come up with like this one that we received in our inbox yesterday. The author bases his premise that Kentucky has committed a violation on the idea that a random fan who bought a ticket to a Kentucky game has made a donation to the school and thus is a representative of the school. We are all for punishing schools if and when the break the rules, but we don’t need to be stretching the interpretation of rules to find violations.

With the the release of today’s ESPN/USA Today preseason poll and next week’s Associated Press preseason poll college basketball fans across the country can go into full-fledged sniping mode at where their favorite team is ranked or where a rival is ranked (that is unless you are North Carolina in which case your only complaint is that you did not get every single #1 vote). We thought it would be interesting to take a look at the historical trends of how teams perform throughout the regular season as compared to where the selected media and coaches rank those teams coming into the season.

You May Be Surprised With Where Tom Izzo's Teams Rank

Obviously, there are some limitations here like the fact that we are basing this off regular season results and ignoring postseason success and that we are relying on the opinions of those coaches and writers to determine how successful a team is. On the first issue, we will agree that most college basketball fans (casual and otherwise) will probably remember a team’s success based on their performance in March rather than the overall body of work. We like to think that we are a bit more nuanced in our approach to basketball and think that a team’s overall performance is more than just six games in March. Consequently, we feel that their regular-season performance is probably a better indicator of how good they were. If you feel strongly the other way, leave your reasoning in the comment section and we may reconsider our view. The second issue is more legitimate and we seriously considered using the end-of-season KenPom.com rankings as the basis for overall performance, but in the end we decided to compare apples-to-apples and include coach/media bias in the preseason and end-of-season rankings. Of course, we may go back and do this exercise with the Pomeroy rankings in the near future.

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The massive amount of alumni, donors and fans of basketball science who support Kentucky care very much about mathematics. In particular, the accumulation of positive numbers.

Two years ago they celebrated being the first school to reach the number 2000 in basketball wins. A few days ago they cheered loudly as they unfurled the fourteenth colored banner allowed to decorate the huge research lab of Rupp Arena. The program also celebrated the three days worth of intense computation that resulted in an increment of Southeastern Conference Tournament titles.  While elated with the progress, none of these are the specific answer desired by Kentucky Math fans. They want the ultimate answer: An eighth NCAA National Championship.

Kentucky’s researchers were making incredible breakthroughs in the 1990s. Dr. Rick Pitino used several years of research in Full Court Pressology to finally solve for six. Before he could apply the same formula to solve for seven he left for a professional position for a storied firm in Boston. Dr. Tubby Smith immediately used many of Dr. Pitino’s components but mixed them with Intense Defense Limits stretching from one to suffocating. The result: Seven. As time passed Kentucky supporter’s error tolerance level was reduced to near-zero and Dr. Smith took his research to Minnesota. Dr. Billy Gillispie‘s early theories were promising but his science unsound.

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Practices are in full effect, we’re halfway through our preseason conference primers, and real game action begins just over 18 days from now.  The so-called experts among us believe that North Carolina, Kentucky and Connecticut comprise the top tier of teams in America; with Syracuse, Ohio State, Duke and Louisville generally considered the next tier of challengers.  But none of us — not Goodman, not Parrish, not Decourcy, not Winn, not Davis, not Katz, not O’Neil, and certainly none of the AP, Coaches’, or RTC pollsters, are in danger of losing our jobs if we’re wrong.  Such do-or-die pressure to be right isn’t a necessary condition of this profession, but that’s definitely not true with Vegas oddsmakers.  For those guys, all it takes is one particularly terrible line and your head could be on the chopping block as a result.  As we’ve said before, sports books typically aren’t in the business of losing money, so even though you should read through these odds with a healthy dose of salt, it’s always interesting to see how they’re thinking.

First the odds (taken from The Greek as of October 19, 2011), then our analysis after the jump:  (ed. note: for those unfamiliar with futures odds, +350 represents the amount of money a potential gambler would receive back if he placed a $100 wager on that team and it won.  He would, in other words, win back 3.5 times his original wager.)

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1. LSU took an 11-day summer trip to Italy, which Tigers’ coach Trent Johnson is hoping will translate into improved play this year. The Tigers won all six games they played in May, but more importantly, were forced to fine tune an offense that ranked last in the SEC in scoring average at 62.2 PPG in 2010-11. LSU played with international rules which meant they adhered to a 24-second shot clock. Johnson said, “you play international rules and the game is basically all about offense with a 24-second shot clock. They do not like to guard you, and they like to get real physical with you, so it put us in some very adverse situations.” With returning leadership and the benefit of extra practice over the summer, LSU is hoping the overseas trip will benefit the Tigers’ team this year, although Italy has not led to positive results for all of its visitors recently.
2. Festus Ezeli’s six-game suspension has opened the door for other ‘Dores to step up with additional playing time. Vandy coach Kevin Stallings said 6’11” redshirt freshman Josh Henderson and 6’9″ senior Steve Tchiengang will see extra minutes. Stallings has been impressed with Henderson’s progression thus far saying, “he’s a surprisingly good rebounder for a guy that’s not real fast. He’s gifted as a passer, he’s one of those big guys that has vision.”
3. Kentucky Sports Radio’s Matt Jones knows an SEC team will cut down the nets this April. Jones wrote with conviction that the Kentucky Wildcats will win the 2011-12 National Championship. He didn’t say might win it or could win it. He said will. His three reasons why? Well, if you’re that interested, then give it a read over at Grantland. Jones put into words the general sentiment in Lexington and around Big Blue Nation that this is the year for the Wildcats. Kentucky has the “it” factor with more talent than ever before and John Calipari is a coach who has come close so many times in the past that the ball will eventually bounce his way.  Something tells us the people in Chapel Hill are feeling the same way!
4. Speaking of Kentucky, John Calipari’s teams haven’t exactly been known for their senior leadership. 6’7″ senior Darius Miller is trying to change that as he enters his second year as the leader of yet another group of talented incoming freshmen. Miller reflected on his leadership abilities saying, “last year, I think I struggled with [leading] early on. I’m more comfortable with it now, honestly.” Freshman point guard Marquis Teague agreed that Miller looks out for the rest of the guys saying, “he gets everything organized for practice, makes everything happen on time. He’s like our big brother.” Kentucky will need Miller’s leadership both on and off the court to meet the always-high expectations of Wildcat fans.
5. The University of Florida student newspaper discussed the tempo of Billy Donovan’s Gator teams. Despite a perception of the Gators playing run and gun basketball, the 2010-11 team ranked 290th in the nation in adjusted tempo. And who doesn’t love KenPom stats? With the departure of strong front court players who were physical in the post and the addition of two dynamic guards making the back court even stronger this year, the Gators plan to push the basketball in transition and create turnovers with their patented press. Donovan plans to play three or even four guards at a time. Point guard Erving Walker said, “being that we have a lot more depth and knowing that in the past Coach Donovan liked to press a lot, I think we’ll be a much more fast-paced team.” The Gator guards just need to make sure the Florida bigs can keep up.

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Note: Check out games #68-52 on the list here.

51. February 25: Memphis at Marshall (4:00, FSN)- The most likely candidate to knock off powerhouse Memphis isn’t a usual suspect like UAB, UTEP or Tulsa. Instead, it’s Tom Herrion and Marshall, a team loaded with reigning C-USA freshman of the year DeAndre Kane, point guard standout Damier Pitts and Justin Coleman, a former Louisville commit with huge upside. The problem is that Memphis is overflowing with talent up and down the roster. Will Barton could lead the league in scoring, Adonis Thomas is a superb athlete and Tarik Black is the Tigers most indispensable player. Whether Pitts can fluster Memphis’ young point guard Joe Jackson, who averaged more turnovers than assists as a freshman, is a storyline to watch when these two clash in late February, possibly for a conference crown.

Josh Pastner and Memphis aim to hold off upstart Marshall this season

50.  February 4: Xavier at Memphis (1:00, FSN)- As per usual, Memphis loaded up on their non-conference schedule to make up for a weaker Conference USA slate. The Tigers travel to Louisville, but their toughest home date next season could very well be Xavier, another premiere non-BCS school who’s not afraid to challenge themselves outside of conference play. The Musketeers boast a loaded backcourt spearheaded by Tu Holloway, a legitimate sleeper for the Wooden Award, and he’ll likely be matching buckets with Memphis’ Will Barton. But it’s Antonio Barton, the often overshadowed brother, who made rapid defensive improvements last season and could draw the assignment of containing Holloway.

49. February 1: Connecticut at Georgetown (7:00, ESPN2)- The Hoyas lost their core in Chris Wright and Austin Freeman, but it was a duo that only led the program to a 27-27 record over the last three seasons in Big East play. They’ll need Jason Clark, who had a much quieter junior season than expected, to grab hold of a leadership role and become an all-Big East performer. He’ll need help from his friends Henry Sims and Nate Lubick or Connecticut’s intimidating duo of Alex Oriakhi and Andre Drummond will have their way in the paint.

48. February 7: Purdue at Ohio State (9:00, ESPN)- These two schools have had some memorable meetings recently, from Evan Turner’s coming out party in West Lafayette to E’Twaun Moore’s 38-point effort last season. Any opponent that hopes to knock off the Sullinger-Craft-Buford led Buckeyes in Columbus this season will need to play a near-perfect 40 minutes. A disciplined Purdue team coached by Matt Painter and led by a healthy Robbie Hummel is capable.

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1. A dramatic turn in SEC Expansion 2011: ALL YOUR TEAMS ARE BELONG TO US! The New York Times’ Pete Thamel reported yesterday evening that Missouri‘s application to the SEC was “inevitable and imminent” according to an unnamed source close to the process. Thamel also reports that the SEC Presidents will accept Missouri’s application barring any legal problems that would complicate the school’s exit from the Big 12. (For the sanity of the nation, somebody please keep Baylor President Ken Starr from registering the domain name dontmesswithmissourifootball.com.) Missouri’s Board of Curators will be meeting later this week and may actually finalize an application to the SEC.
2. What has been the hold-up for Mizzou? An excellent article published last weekend by the Kansas City Star relates the differing opinions of Missouri’s conference alignment with the diverse population. The article does an excellent job of showing that Missourians’ identity is a mixture of sub-identities: the cowboys of the west plains, the farmers of the northern midwest, the traditionalists of the south and the big-city indifference from St. Louis. If each of these factions are represented on the Mizzou Board of Curators, then perhaps we finally understand why the school has been very deliberate in making its decision.
3. Vanderbilt’s Festus Ezeli should try being more deliberate when making travel decisions. Over the summer the senior center accepted a furnished meal and hotel room from a Vandy alumnus; a violation specified somewhere in the NCAA Huge Book O’ ByLaws. Vanderbilt Athletics self-reported the violation and he will sit out the Commodores’ first six regular season games. He will return for Vandy’s November 28 game versus Xavier. Vanderbilt’s Vice Chancellor David Williams said in a released statement that, “we have a very good compliance education process in place and this incident shows how easily someone can fall astray, even with the best intentions.” Remember, Vandy student-athletes: Don’t accept any illicit gifts, even if the gift is a near-mint copy of Detective Comics #27.
4. It’s pretty easy to deduce that the quote war between Kentucky head coach John Calipari and Louisville head coach Rick Pitino is nothing but a little hype from two coaches that don’t necessarily get along with each other. A Lexington-area sportscaster often jokes that Pitino and Calipari are acting like “a bunch of catty schoolgirls”. Yesterday, CBS Sportsline’s Gary Parrish believes he discovered a new layer of cattiness with the Wildcats head coach: The recent emphasis of the phrase “Players First Program” to describe Kentucky is to trump the Cardinal’s newest team phrase of “Louisville First.” We tend to disagree. Most of Coach Cal’s “Players First” talk was in direct build-up of his “State of the Wildcat Nation” speech. The emphasis about “Players First” was primarily given in sections of the speech written directly for the 2012 recruits attending and those who didn’t attend but would watch the highlights later. Additionally Calipari had no problem directly dissing Coach Pitino during his speech: He left out Pitino when referencing a list of former coaches and explicitly omitted the 1995-96 National Championship team (led then by Pitino) when listing some of the great Wildcat teams of the past. The coaches will probably not stop being snippy until the Cards and the Cats play on New Year’s Eve in Rupp Arena. Maybe we should take away their cell phones and ground them from going to the mall until the game.
5. Full team practices launched over the weekend. Check out my homeboy Brian Joyce’s SEC Practice Report from yesterday for a detailed look. Bryan ran out of time before he could preview Alabama. ‘Bama is returning one of the most powerful and experienced frontcourts in the nation which includes senior forward JaMychal Green and junior forward Tony Mitchell. Last season the Crimson Tide struggled to find consistent shooting from deep. (Last season only then-senior guard Charvez Davis made more than 40 three-pointers in the season [71].) The additions of freshmen Trevor Lacey, Levi Randolph and Rodney Cooper will more than make up for Davis’ departure due to graduation. In an interview after ‘Bama’s first practice Green said, “I think we’re a better scoring team. We’ve got better 3-point shooters this year. We have more than one.” If head coach Anthony Grant can find multiple consistent deep threats from his freshmen, they will spread out defenses and let Green and Mitchell feast in the middle. Mmmmmmm… post-up play.