The calendar has turned and it’s time to get serious.  Conference play has already begun, so expect to see quite a few changes in this poll in coming weeks.

(Ed. Note: we’ve added a sixth pollster, RTC contributor Brian Otskey (bots) – welcome, Brian!)

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The Lede.  Here’s hoping everyone had a very safe and happy New Year’s 2011.  Just typing those numbers makes it hard for us to believe that there are ten-year olds who never experienced the awesomeness of the 1990s.  Speaking of irrelevant references to timing, with the calendar change we’re now heading into the heart of the season.  Frankly, the first two months in some ways seemed interminable, with far too many mismatches merely acting as a prelude for the conference season where the contenders and pretenders will be inevitably ferreted out.  As a case in point, take a look at last year’s AP Top 10 from one year ago today.  Texas, a first-round NCAA loser, was #2; Kansas and Villanova, both second round losers, were #1 and #6, respectively; the #9 team, North Carolina, ended up in the NIT.  The lesson here is that there are no finished products yet — many teams have barely tested themselves, and it wouldn’t be the first time that a school with a lofty pre-conference record collapses after seeing its own blood on the road.  Who will those teams be?  We have some ideas but it’ll have to wait until later this week.

Your Watercooler Moment.  Memphis Fan Ejected From Game.  This is a no-brainer.  There weren’t all that many great games this weekend, but an incident that took place near the end of Memphis’ 91-86 win over Tennessee State on Sunday is what will be talked about on Monday morning.  After an on-court scrum where a prominent donor’s wife (is she really the spouse of the Lenny’s Sub Shop guy? — someone please confirm) got agitated from the front row and allegedly yelled at one of the TSU players to “choke on” his mouthpiece, the nearby referee Mark Whitehead threw her out of the game.  Yes, you read that correctly, a fan!  And not just any fan, but a middle-aged female fan who quite obviously presented a clear and present danger to the players on the floor, especially considering the way that she was pumping and waving around those blue pom-pons.  (h/t Chris Littman for the video)

Your Watercooler Moment, Vol. II. Dear Ron: Don’t Eff With Jeannine Edwards — Signed, Billy Gillispie.  This has absolutely nothing to do with college basketball per se, but it involves two media personalities who regularly cover the game and it’s hilarious nevertheless.  SportsByBrooks reported over the weekend that ESPN commentator Ron Franklin (he of the Big Twelve games, mostly) condescendingly called reporter Jeannine Edwards “sweetcakes” and “a-hole” during a production meeting prior to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve.  Franklin was allowed to work that game but he was then pulled from the Fiesta Bowl radio broadcast on Saturday night.  We’re not sure if this is a much more common occurrence with female reporters or what, but people seem to enjoy talking down to Jeannine Edwards.  Former Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie of course was widely ridiculed for his treatment of the sideline reporter during an Ole Miss game in 2009, and many people in Wildcat country believe strongly that particular embarrassment was the straw that broke his back as the UK coach.  It’s undetermined what will happen to Franklin as a result of his latest comments, but it should be noted that he had a similar incident five years ago with Holly Rowe and he still remained with the company.  Will Jeannine go two-for-two in her latest battle of the sexes?  Let’s hope so.

This Weekend’s Quick Hits…

• Kansas: Best Team in America. So says Miami (OH) forward Antonio Ballard, whose team has had the privilege to play the top three teams in the polls so far this season.  The Red Hawks lost to Duke by 34, Ohio State by 21, and Kansas by 27, but it was the athleticism of the Morris twins who combined for 38/15 coming off the bench that seemed to make the biggest impression.
• Illinois Starts off Big Ten 2-0.  The Illini got a key home win on Sunday with its victory over Wisconsin in Champaign.  Combined with a win at Iowa last week, and Bruce Weber’s team crystallizes just how important scheduling is in conference races.  A winnable road game followed by a home game against a team they’ll likely battle all year in the second tier of the conference race.  Contrast this with Minnesota who currently sits at 0-2 as a result of road games to Wisconsin and Michigan State.
• Syracuse, Cincinnati & St. John’s Do Likewise.  With respect to SU and UC, again, scheduling.  Syracuse feasted on two more home meals with Seton Hall and Notre Dame visiting the Carrier Dome, while Cincy got DePaul and the Hall to visit the Queen City.  The anomaly of this group is Steve Lavin’s Johnnies.  Somehow the same team that lost to Fordham and St. Bonnie managed to get Big East road wins at WVU and Providence last week.  If his team is turning a corner, we’ll find out on Big Monday as they host Georgetown at MSG.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

A lot of the college basketball world was in action on Friday and we have just 27 games tipping off on New Year’s Day. However, a handful involve some pretty good teams. A number of games are on Sunday but not many happen to be compelling matchups.  All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

West Virginia @ Marquette – 11 am Saturday on ESPN2 (***)

An important game for both clubs, this one tips at a strange time (10 am local) on New Year’s Day. West Virginia suffered a surprising loss to St. John’s at home earlier this week and doesn’t look like a vintage Bob Huggins team. The Mountaineers have struggled a bit with defense and rebounding, two staples of Huggins’ coaching career. They rank just #278 in defensive rebounding percentage and aren’t as strong inside as they have been. West Virginia fouls a lot, leading to foul problems and many free throws for the opposition. Marquette will look to take advantage of that with their free throw rate against, ninth in the nation. Look for the Golden Eagles to have a significant edge at the line as a result. A big part of WVU’s struggles has been the reluctance of Kevin Jones and Deniz Kilicli to explode and become big time players. Jones is still a good player but he hasn’t improved to the point where most expected him to. One player who has is Casey Mitchell, averaging 17 PPG which leads the team. The Mountaineer offense is very efficient (#9 in the country) due to effective point guard play from Darryl Bryant. “Truck” sets the tone for a very good half court unit. West Virginia does rebound well on their end, resulting in a lot of second chance points, but their defense and rebounding on the other end of the floor has let them down. St. John’s put up 81 points against them, a stunning number for a team that isn’t considered an offensive powerhouse by any stretch. Marquette will look to push the ball and work it inside in order to get easier looks and be fouled. Buzz Williams has an undersized team but they do a great job of using their athleticism by getting in the paint and creating good looks. MU gets 62% of their points inside the arc and is #11 in the country in two point percentage. They have a good turnover margin as well and will look to get points in the paint through lots of transition opportunities.  Jae Crowder has added another dimension to the Marquette attack, giving them a good scorer inside and out as well as a solid rebounder. He and Jimmy Butler will be key players for the home folks today. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Williams is the play of Darius Johnson-Odom over the last two games. His struggles from three have been well documented this season but he’s hit seven of his last eleven trifectas. Keeping that hot shooting going will be tough against West Virginia’s #4 rated three point defense but you have to think DJO has some good vibes now. Marquette’s three point defense isn’t very good but they must try to contain Mitchell on the wing. This should be a fairly close game but we like the Golden Eagles to win at home. Nobody knows how the players will react to such an early start but Marquette is playing better right now and should take this one.

#16 Notre Dame @ #4 Syracuse – 3:30 pm Saturday on ESPNU (****)

This matchup has turned into a really good one with the surprising success of Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish picked Georgetown apart (no small feat) earlier this week and will look to grab a big time road win on Saturday afternoon. The keys here are Notre Dame’s rebounding and three point shooting. The Irish run a great offense at a relatively slow pace and will have to get comfortable in the half court against the Syracuse zone. If the three’s are not falling, this will be a long game for Mike Brey. However, we think they will and Notre Dame has an excellent chance to go into Syracuse and grab a win. Notre Dame is an experienced squad and knows what they need to do here. Tim Abromaitis and Ben Hansbrough will look to shoot over the 2-3 zone while Tyrone Nash will play a big role inside against Syracuse’s Rick Jackson. Nash is the best player in the country at drawing fouls, an important statistic against Jackson and Kris Joseph (52 points in his last two games) inside. If the Syracuse bigs are in foul trouble, Notre Dame has a tremendous chance to win. As a team, the Irish are one of the best at getting to the line and keeping their opponent off it. Their free throw rates are very good on both ends so Syracuse will have to get it done shooting the ball from the floor. That’ll be tough against a Notre Dame team coming off a tremendous defensive performance against the Hoyas. Each team takes good care of the ball so turnovers don’t figure to be a huge factor in this game. The rebounding battle may decide the outcome. Both teams do a nice job on the glass but Jim Boeheim has the best rebounder on the floor with Jackson in the middle. He averages 12 RPG and can single handedly carry the Orange to victory. Getting the ball to Jackson on offense falls to Scoop Jardine, a very good point guard averaging six assists per outing. This is a great matchup between two teams that should contend for a double-bye at the Big East Tournament in March. Syracuse will be favored and obviously has a good chance to win but we’re going to go out on a limb here and take the Irish in an upset on the road.

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For the past two years we’ve taken a look at what NCAA basketball would be like if the powers that be decided to adopt the antediluvian BCS system. In 2009 it would have yielded a championship game between UNC and Louisville along with several other less desirable match-ups. In 2010 it would have led to a championship game between Kansas and Kentucky, which could have been an interesting match-up, but both teams showed severe flaws that led to their elimination well short of the final Monday night game in April.

This season we decided that we would expand things a bit by offering our RTC/BCS college basketball rankings using a formula similar to what they use to determine the BCS rankings in college football on a weekly basis. As the season progresses, you can see how certain teams rise from relative obscurity and into the BCS picture while other teams fall from prestigious BCS games down to what would be the equivalent of pre-New Year’s Day games. With conference play about to start we thought that this would be the ideal time to start looking at the potential match-ups.

We kept the same basic rules as we used in previous years:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. We are not including six computer rankings and dropping the highest and lowest like they do in the BCS because frankly we are not familiar with six reputable computer ranking systems. If you know of any other computer rankings leave a comment below and we might include them in the next installment of our rankings.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the Rush the Court correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

A Look Back

Last week the Big Ten was almost able to avoid any bad losses (Penn State’s loss to Maine being the only exception), but it also couldn’t secure any good wins in the final big week of non-conference play. Losses by Michigan State (home against Texas), Illinois (versus Missouri) and Northwestern (versus St. John’s) left the conference behind the eight ball a bit.

A more comprehensive look back on an individual scale can be found at Chicago College Basketball where I named the 1^st and 2^nd team all-conference performers. Here’s a sneak peak at my first team:

• F Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
• F John Shurna, Northwestern
• C JaJuan Johnson, Purdue
• G Demetri McCamey, Illinois
• G E’Twaun Moore, Purdue

The post has the second team, honorable mentions and an explanation about some of the tougher picks, including why Wisconsin’s Jon Leuer wasn’t included.

• Team of the Week: Iowa. The Hawkeyes beat Louisiana Tech 77-58 and considering the struggles of the rest of the conference last week, especially that of the bottom tier, this was a good win. Plus, this might be the last time I’m able to write something positive about the Hawkeyes as Ken Pomeroy currently projects them for a 6-12 conference record (which seems awfully generous to be honest).
• Player of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State.  Sullinger averaged a double-double with 12.5 points and 12.5 rebounds in victories over UNC-Asheville and Oakland last week. He’s won the Newcomer award so many times I thought maybe it’d be good to let these two outstanding freshman split the awards this week.
• Newcomer of the Week: Tim Hardaway Jr., G, Michigan.  Hardaway Jr. scored 20 points in the Wolverines’ victory over Bryant this week. He also had five rebounds and two assists.

Power Rankings:

1. Ohio State (12-0) – Jared Sullinger continues to dominate and the Buckeyes had no problems with UNC-Asheville or Oakland last week. Ohio State has a relatively easy start to the Big Ten season playing at Indiana and at Iowa, so it just has to avoid a slip-up early.
2. Wisconsin (10-2) – Blasted Coppin State. Who cares?
3. Purdue (11-1) – More shrugs, we will actually figure something out on Tuesday when the Boilermakers play Michigan. According to Ken Pomeroy the Wolverines are the third hardest team Purdue has faced all season.
4. Minnesota (11-1) – The Golden Gophers beat South Dakota State. Yeah!
5. Michigan State (8-4) – It’s officially time to start worrying about the Spartans as they dropped a game at the Breslin Center to Texas last week. Washington is the only elite team that Michigan State has beaten this season.
6. Illinois (10-3) – Mike Tisdale’s really poor decision on an intentional foul helped Missouri pull out a 75-64 victory in the rivalry game last week. The Fighting Illini enter Wednesday’s game against Iowa on a two-game losing streak.
7. Michigan (10-2) – For a team that wasn’t expected to do much the Wolverines are sitting pretty entering conference play. Can they keep it going as the competition gets tougher? This is a good piece from UM Hoops about that exact topic.
8. Northwestern (9-1) – The Wildcats failed their first major test against St. John’s, but also got two victories over lesser opponents. Northwestern now starts a brutal early Big Ten slate: at Purdue, versus Michigan State and at Illinois.
9. Indiana (9-5) – The Hoosiers are in a bit of a slide having lost two very winnable games in Las Vegas last week and Monday night’s home game against Penn State.
10. Iowa (7-5) – The Hawkeyes’ defense appears to be keying a mini-resurgence here at the end of non-conference play. It’s back to reality in Big Ten play though with Illinois, Ohio State, and at Purdue to start.
11. Penn State (8-4) – A double-digit loss at home to Maine gets you sent to the doghouse even with a win on Monday against the Hoosiers in Bloomington.

A Look Ahead (all times EST):

• 12/28 – Purdue at Michigan, 2 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/28 – Minnesota at Wisconsin, 7 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/29 – Illinois at Iowa, 9 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/31 – Northwestern at Purdue, 12 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/31 – Minnesota at Michigan State, 4 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/2 – Wisconsin at Illinois, 6 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/3 – Michigan State at Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: Big Ten play starts on Monday! Next week this space will get interesting.

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #3 Kansas 78, Cal 63: “Kansas won the Pac10 grabbed their first true road victory of the season with a win over the Cal Bears. The late tipoff Wednesday night seemed to fit the Jayhawk play at times as a Kansas team that clearly looked like the more talented team, once again couldn’t manage to stay out of their own way during portions of the game.” (Rock Chalk Talk: Recap and Statistical Analysis)
• #4 Syracuse 93, Drexel 65: “That was the scary Drexel team we’ve been hearing about? The one that beat Louisville in the YUM? The one that’s apparently having their best season ever? Either they’re not quite as good as advertised or the Orange just about put together their best performance of the season in a 93-65 demolition job.” (Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician)
• #8 Villanova 76, Monmouth 36: “What can anyone say about a 76-36 win? I guess the coach summed it up nicely with ‘I like where we are right now.'” (Villanova by the Numbers)
• #10 Missouri 75, #21 Illinois 64: Taking a look at the game from the winning side and the losing side of the “Braggin’ Rights” game.
• #25 Texas 67, #12 Michigan State 55: “Tonight, with a 67-55 victory over the Spartans, Texas once again pulled off the impressive feat of beating North Carolina and Michigan State in the span of a few days. Even more impressively, they won both games on the road. In fact, tonight’s victory ended Michigan State’s much-publicized streak of 52 consecutive home victories against non-conference opponents. Essentially, Texas was the first non-con team to win a game in East Lansing in the last 7 years. This was exactly the type of game–against a good team and hostile crowd–that young teams can be expected to lose. But we didnt. Tonight was a virtuoso win, even if wasn’t exactly a virtuoso performance. Texas did enough to win, but, unlike last year, I doubt this will be their best performance of the season. To put it more simply, the win tonight feels bigger and more important than our actual performance, which was really-good-but-not-great.” (Burnt Orange Nation)
• #15 Kentucky 89, Winthrop 52: “My first impression of this game was, “Wow. What a game by Doron Lamb,” and upon reflection, that impression still stands. Setting the freshman scoring record by shooting 92% on 11-12 field goal attempts is simply staggering. That record has stood for nearly 20 years, and the guy who set it has a jersey hanging in the rafters. That’s the magnitude of the accomplishment by the young Brooklynite. It also seems somehow fitting that he bested another New Yorker, even though he was out of the Bronx.” (A Sea of Blue)

Other Games of Interest

• Maryland 89, NJIT 50: “After a game that one-sided, there’s only so much you can say, as well as only so much that can be learned. Maryland defeated NJIT 89-50 in the Comcast Center, with the 39-point margin of victory the Terrapins’ second-largest all season. On the way, they dominated every statistical category: they forced 22 turnovers, shot 60% from three, limited the Highlanders to 32% shooting from the field, and generally controlled play entirely from tip-to-tip. NJIT is awful, granted, and the stats should be enough to tell you that. But hey, you take any type of blowout when you can get it.” (Testudo Times)
• Louisville 114, Western Kentucky 82: “Louisville went on the road for the first time and gave perhaps their best performance of the season, burying 16 three-pointers on their way to a 114-82 rout of in-state host Western Kentucky.” (Card Chronicle)
• Northern Iowa 67, Indiana 61: “Defense, experience and execution. UNI, a Sweet 16 team last season, brought all three to the table tonight, and it was all just a little too much for the Hoosiers to handle.” (Inside the Hall: Part 1 and Part 2)
• Gonzaga 64, Xavier 54: “Against Baylor, Gonzaga showed they could win a game facing tremendous adversity. Tonight against Xavier, the Zags faced similar adversity but they did so at the friendly confines of the McCarthey Athletic Center.” (The Slipper Still Fits)

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The Lede.  If you’re anything like us, and we suspect that you are, you spent tonight stationed in front of your television (hopefully HD) for anywhere between four to six hours, munching on way too many Christmas cookies, filling your stomach with eggnog or some similar milky concoction, and watching game after game of college hoops.  Now Texas, now Michigan State and Illinois!  On, Mizzou!  On Gonzaga, on Kansas and Cal! To the top of the polls!  To the top of the key!  Now get out on the break!  Fill those lanes!  Throw it down, all! It was Holiday Hoops at its best this evening, with several marquee matchups on the tube and nothing else on our agenda other than to nod knowingly when the Significant Other Unit started complaining about finishing the shopping.  This guy pretty much nailed it when he said that having the holiday spirit combined with some great hoops on the TV tonight equaled one incomparable thing: bliss.

This is a Snapshot Image of MSU's Evening (DFP/J. Gonzalez)

Your Watercooler Moment. What the Hell is Wrong With Michigan State? Nothing.  The Spartans are who they are.  They were never the second-best team in America — not this year, not last year, nor the year before.  In explaining why there’s nothing wrong with them, we got a little word-happy and decided to turn it into a separate post, which is located here.  Just remember that March basketball is a different animal than December basketball and that Izzo knows and understands this, and you’ll be fine.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Whelliston’s Red Line Upset Record.  The Mid-Majority’s record of what he calls “red line upsets” was equaled tonight with ten teams from mid-major leagues defeating major-conference teams.  The Las Vegas Classic was particularly inspiring for the little guys, as New Mexico dropped Colorado and Northern Iowa got past Indiana.  The others: North Texas over LSU, Siena over Georgia Tech, Dayton over Seton Hall, Cleveland State over South Florida, Seattle over Virginia, Furman over South Carolina, Green Bay over Wyoming, Butler over Utah, and Northern Arizona over Air Force (note: Whelliston considers the Mountain West a major conference).  And nice representation among the power leagues, with the MWC dropping three games and the ACC, Big East and SEC grabbing two a piece.  Shockingly, the Pac-10 had none tonight (and yes, Oregon State played — see below).
• Tristan Thompson.  The 6’8 freshman forward was seemingly everywhere for Texas tonight, dropping 17 points and grabbing 15 boards (six offensive) against the typically beefy Michigan State front line.  He’s had his ups and downs this season, but tonight was his best performance of the year, and if Rick Barnes can convince this human pogo stick to crash the glass like this on a nightly basis, Texas suddenly becomes a darkhorse Final Four candidate this year.
• Jordanesque.  Coming off the bench nursing a sprained ankle to hit several key FTs down the stretch to get a big road win?  That’s what Marcus Jordan did tonight at UMass in a tight contest that could have gone either way, the first such exposure for UCF as a nationally-ranked team.  We’re not going to oversell this — after all, he only scored seven points in fifteen minutes — but UCF is turning into one of the better stories of this college basketball season, and a large part of it due to Heir Jordan.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Tonight you’ll catch three really good games (including two heavyweight Big 12/Big Ten clashes) if you sit down, relax, and watch ESPN2 all night. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#25 Texas @ #12 Michigan State – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

Like It or Not, Izzo and the Spartans Need This One

It’s always fun when two name-brand programs go at it and this one is no exception. This is a big game for both teams but especially so for the homestanding Spartans. A loss here would drop Michigan State to 7-4 against D1 competition and once again ignite the questions about this team’s ability over the long haul, regardless of Tom Izzo’s history. Speaking of Mr. Izzo, he’s back after serving a one-game suspension for employing someone connected to a recruit at his basketball camp. Sparty had no problems against Prairie View A&M but Texas poses a stern test for State. The Longhorns look like a better team this year, playing with good chemistry and stronger defense. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency with Texas in the top three in defensive effective field goal percentage. Rick Barnes has a cohesive unit this year that can score as well. With Jordan Hamilton draining threes and Cory Joseph taking over at the point, Texas may just be starting to hit their stride. The key matchups in this ballgame are Hamilton against Durrell Summers and Joseph versus Korie Lucious. When he’s on, Summers can match Hamilton shot for shot. Izzo has moved Lucious to the point many times while shifting Kalin Lucas off the ball. It is essential that each point guard control the ball and get others involved, plus we’re curious to see how the freshman Joseph reacts to the intense environment of the Breslin Center. Each team is deep and talented so the point guards cannot expect to be the stars of the show. The problem for Michigan State all season has been turnovers, something Texas will be eager to force. The Longhorns are deadly when they get out in transition and Michigan State just can’t afford another game chock full of giveaways. Pay attention to the three point line tonight. Michigan State is a very good three-point shooting team, the least we’d expect from what Izzo called a “pretty-boy jump shooting team” after their loss to Syracuse. However, Texas is very good at defending the arc and even better inside it, ranked seventh in two-point defense. The Spartans have three legitimate deep threats and will look to put Texas on notice early and often. On the other end, Michigan State is not good at defending the three. That’s a potentially lethal situation when you have a gunner like Hamilton on the other side. This would seem to be a great time for Michigan State to turn the corner and re-establish itself as a contender with a convincing win over a solid Texas team. We see this game as a closer contest however and Texas can put themselves on the map for good this year with a strong road win. Michigan State is the favorite at home and we’ll take the Spartans by single digits.

#10 Missouri vs. #21 Illinois (in St. Louis) – 9 pm on ESPN2 (****)

The annual Braggin’ Rights game between these two border state rivals is always a must-watch, especially when the teams are good as they are this season. Plus, don’t you love seeing that dividing line right in the middle of the arena separating black and gold from orange? Each team is in the top 25 for the first time in seven years but both programs are dealing with a bit of adversity. The Illini are coming off a brutal loss to Illinois-Chicago while Missouri lost freshman Phil Pressey to a broken hand and will welcome Michael Dixon back from suspension in his place. The story of this game will be pace, essentially who establishes their style of play. Everyone knows Missouri loves to get out and run but Illinois can control this game by protecting the ball against the aggressive Mizzou defense, running efficient half court sets and playing to their strength, defense. Ranked #18 in efficiency, the Illini defense needs to always have a man between Missouri and the basket to stop the ball, otherwise the Tigers will carve them up in both the half court and in transition. Illinois will have success if they force Missouri to play half court offense, taking time off the shot clock and limiting possessions. The most important player in this game is Demetri McCamey. The Illinois senior runs their offense and can shoot the lights out from three. He has to take advantage of Missouri jumping the passing lanes and make good passes to his teammates leading to open looks. Bruce Weber’s team has to take advantage of the mismatch on the perimeter when they have the ball. Illinois ranks #19 in three point shooting while the Tigers are #215 in defending the trey. Meanwhile, Missouri can exploit a weak spot in the Illinois defense inside with Ricardo Ratliffe. Illinois’ interior defense is ranked #118 and the Missouri big man should be able to get Mike Tisdale and/or Mike Davis into foul trouble. Missouri has a bunch of scorers on its roster but, remarkably, they don’t get to the foul line often. Illinois is even worse when it comes to free throw rate but they may get there more often against the foul-prone Tigers. Expect a very close game between two fierce rivals with the outcome in doubt late into the second half. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a determined and focused Illinois team rebound from the UIC loss by knocking off Missouri this evening.

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Kellen Carpenter is an RTC contributor.

A wise man was once asked why he shot so many threes. The sage stroked his chin and replied simply, “Because there are no fours.” Truly this is the wisdom of the ages. While there are some amongst us who dispute the wisdom-dispensing qualifications of former Kentucky Wildcat/Boston Celtic/Miami Heat Antoine Walker, there is at least a hint of a whiff of a smidgen of truth to his sentiment. The three is a powerful and deadly offensive weapon and the proper deployment of judicious three-point shooting can transform a tough team into a deadly team.  This isn’t a secret. Lots of teams know this. How many March upsets follow the familiar script of an overmatched, smaller team launching a barrage of threes in a bid to upset its major-conference opponent? Most of them. But it’s not just underdogs that utilize the three, it’s the top dogs too: Duke’s tremendous early season success is due in no small part to shooting a blistering 43.6% from beyond the arc so far this season. The three is potent, indeed.

Employee #8 Never Hesitated on a Trey Attempt

Yet, for some reason, many teams shy away from the three. Why? The three is mighty, and sometimes a player or a whole team can become drunk on its power, letting loose a barrage of deep shots only to have the shots not fall. The barrage of bricks, airballs, and just plain ugly shots can grind an offense to a halt. Fairly or not, some coaches disparage the three and discourage their players from taking what they see as a relatively low-percentage shot. In their eyes, the three is imprudent and hasty, the product of players not having the discipline to work the ball around the defense, to set up a shot closer to the rim for a “high-percentage shot.” It’s hard to fault coaches for wanting their teams to take the best shots they can get, but sometimes, in trying to avoid the risk of the three-point shot, coaches are actually turning down the real “high-percentage shot.”

Three-point shots, as you may have noticed, are worth one point more than a regular field goal, and because of this mathematical fact, hitting two out of five three-pointers or hitting three out of five standard field goals nets you the same result: six points on five shots taken. Dazzling arithmetic, I know, but I just want to be crystal clear on this so I can make the point that it’s easy to compare the relative efficacy of shooting twos versus shooting threes by simply taking the three-point shooting percentage of a given player or team and multiplying it by 1.5. This is the essential wizardry behind the concept of effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and the trick we are going to use to figure out which teams would be better off shooting more often from behind the arc.

If a team’s actual two-point field goal percentage is lower than the three-point field goal percentage multiplied by 1.5, it suggests that the team’s better offensive option is shooting the three. If you were to run this basic check on all 345 teams that Mr. Ken Pomeroy quantifies, you’d see that a whopping 246 teams get more offensive bang for their buck from shooting threes. Now, this is a really crude calculation with an even cruder suggestion: if you are effectively better at shooting threes than shooting twos (which most of you are) you should take more threes. This advice ignores a lot of variables like which shots are open, who is open to take those shots, and the difficult-to-measure value of a balanced offense. In many cases, coaches realize how valuable the three-point shot is and are taking those shots at a rate that they feel is most effective for their offense. In these cases, it’s not inherently interesting that the effective three-point percentage happens to be a little higher than two-point percentage; it’s simply a matter of chance with a fairly ambiguous interpretation. What’s much more interesting is to take a look at teams where the numbers are less ambiguous: teams that are much better, relatively speaking, at taking threes than twos, yet insist on ignoring that evidence anyway.  (see table below)

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

• Until the shock of the week in college basketball on Saturday, Illinois’ 57-54 loss to UIC, not much happened during Big Ten play. Finals kept most teams quiet and the ones that did play mostly scored easy non-conference victories. But now, conference play is just moments away, and don’t we all wish it would just start already.
• Team of the Week: Ohio State: This award was handed to the Buckeyes because they beat South Carolina, which was probably the best win in a middling week for the conference.
• Player of the Week: John Shurna, F, Northwestern: In two games, against Long Island and American, Shurna averaged 27 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game and 4.5 assists per game. He shot 19-25 (76%) from the field for the week.
• Newcomer of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State: Sullinger scored 30 points and grabbed 19 rebounds in the victory over South Carolina. He also had 11 points and two steals against Florida Gulf Coast.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (10-0) – The Buckeyes dominated South Carolina to continue their stranglehold on the top of the power rankings. Sullinger was dominant again. Maybe Keith Benson and Oakland can make him work a little harder this week. Fun fact, recently tweeted by John Gasaway, the Buckeyes’ Dallas Lauderdale is blocking almost one in every five two-point attempts by opponents when he’s on the court.
2. Wisconsin (9-2) – The Badgers topped Green Bay to finish a sweep of the state of Wisconsin and is now in the midst of a 10-day layoff.
3. Purdue (10-1) – The Boilermakers beat the Indiana State Syrcamores, which elicits nothing more than a bunch of shrugs.
4. Michigan State (8-3) – The Spartans beat Prairie View A&M last week, but this week, they play one of the most interesting Big Ten games of the week as Texas comes to visit. Tom Izzo’s one-game suspension will hardly be a footnote in his career.
5. Minnesota (10-1) – The Golden Gophers beat Akron. Yeah!
6. Illinois (10-2) – Bruce Weber was hoping to have a Top 10 team by Christmas. Now, with the loss to UIC and a tough game coming up against Missouri, I think he’d be happy to be in the Top 25 come next Monday.
7. Northwestern (8-0) – Two relatively easy wins over relatively inferior competition don’t impress anyone, especially at home. The Wildcats have a chance to at least creep onto the national radar if they can win the MSG Holiday Festival this week. After blowing out St. Francis (NY) on Monday, they’re off to a nice start
8. Michigan (9-2) – The numbers are starting to look very good for Michigan. The Wolverines are up to #52 overall in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings after a very good 18-point win over Oakland and a rout of North Carolina Central. My guess is Bryant isn’t going to give them any trouble this week either.
9. Indiana (9-2) – Indiana needs a good win over Northern Iowa this week to prove they’re for real and then will get a chance to play either New Mexico or Colorado. If it’s the Lobos, it’ll be a great test for the Hoosiers. Then Tom Crean gets four days to work the remaining kinks out before the first conference game of the season versus Penn State.
10. Penn State (7-3) – The Nittany Lions were idle, and take on Maine before they go to Bloomington.
11. Iowa (6-5) – The Hawkeyes got a good win in beating Drake by seven. Now they have to hold serve against Louisiana Tech on Tuesday.

A Look Ahead (all times EST):

• 12/21 – Northwestern vs. St. John’s or Davidson at MSG Holiday Festival; 7 or 9:30 p.m., MSG
• 12/22 – Michigan St. vs. Texas, 7 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/22 – Indiana vs. Northern Iowa at Las Vegas, Nevada; 7:30 p.m., CBS College Sports
• 12/22 – Illinois vs. Missouri at St. Louis, Missouri; 9 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/23 – Ohio State vs. Oakland, 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/23 – Indiana vs. New Mexico/Colorado at Las Vegas, Nevada; 7:30 or 10 p.m., CBS College Sports
• 12/27 – Indiana vs. Penn State, 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: Four Big Ten teams currently rank between 50 and 54 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. New Mexico must really wonder what the heck they did to get mixed up with the rest of those guys.