Is Mark Gottfried’s squad headed for a loss at Maryland? History says yes.
But does the trend hold up for other ACC schools or is it limited to NC State? I looked back through the last 10 years (through the 2002-03 season), and teams have an overall 41-30 record after beating Duke or North Carolina. NC State’s 1-5 mark is by far the worst, and Miami is still an unblemished 4-0. Every other team has beaten the powerhouses at least four times. Maryland’s 13 wins is the most, followed by Wake Forest’s 11 and Georgia Tech’s nine. Now this doesn’t mean NC State is destined for a loss tomorrow night. The Wolfpack have a much better team than in years past. Their poor record may point more to tough games following the wins, but my guess is there is a pretty sizable letdown after a big win like that, especially right over in Raleigh. Regardless of the effect’s statistical significance, NC State should be a lot more worried about the facts that Maryland is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference and is desperate for a good win after limping to a 1-2 start in conference play.
The records of teams and a year-by-year breakdown after beating Duke or North Carolina after the jump.
Brian Otskey is an RTC columnist. Every Tuesday during the regular season he’ll be giving his 10 thoughts on the previous week’s action. You can find him on Twitter @botskey
Over the last week we have seen the number of undefeated teams reduced to zero. Now that every team has a loss, the speculation about which team should be #1 is heating up. Those who adhere to the résumé argument will say that Duke deserves to stay atop the polls despite its Saturday loss to NC State and they are absolutely right. The problem is, in my opinion, that ranking teams based on their résumé alone is the easy way out. We have a NCAA Tournament Selection Committee who does that for us every year in mid-March. There is more to ranking a team than who it has beat and who it has lost to. There are other factors to consider including statistics and extenuating circumstances. When it comes to the Blue Devils as they are currently constructed, I can’t say they are the best team in the country. Duke is a potent offensive team, but there are other areas for concern. While acknowledging that the efficiency numbers say otherwise, I don’t believe Duke is an elite defensive team. The Blue Devils have allowed 70+ points on only four occasions, but all have come against good competition–Minnesota, Louisville, Santa Clara, and NC State. That tells me when the chips are down against good teams, Duke might not be able to get the stops it needs to win a close game away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. Rebounding is also a concern for Mike Krzyzewski’s team despite having Mason Plumlee in the middle. But perhaps the more immediate concern is the injury to Ryan Kelly who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Duke has been quiet about it, with Coach K only saying it could be a long-term recovery. This only creates more doubt about a player who is very important to the team’s success. Duke is certainly among the top three or four teams in the country right now, but with Kelly’s uncertainty, some defensive concerns (especially compared to say, Louisville), and the rebounding Achilles heel, I have a hard time saying Duke is the flat out best team in the nation.
Ryan Kelly’s injury is a major concern for Duke.
Watching Connecticut take it to Louisville in the first half of last night’s Big Monday game probably created some doubt about the Cardinals among those watching. Of course, there are two halves to a basketball game and Louisville showed why it was ranked #1 in this week’s poll with a dominant second half against the Huskies. There are two main keys to Louisville’s success: Peyton Siva and team defense. Siva was on the bench for quite some time in the first half with foul trouble, but came back and took over after intermission. Louisville’s defense, after giving up 54% shooting in the first half and likely enduring the wrath of Rick Pitino at halftime, held Connecticut to 24 points on 26% shooting over the final 20 minutes. Louisville’s ability to lock you down is second to none. There is not another team in the nation that combines the quickness and ball pressure of two all-conference guards, tall and agile forwards, depth, and an eraser with a massive wingspan on the back line. If the Cardinals are to win a national championship in Atlanta this April, defense will be the reason why. While Louisville is certainly better offensively than it was last season, I still have some concerns on that end of the floor. Louisville could have a tough time against a team with a good interior defense (Kansas for example) because three-point shooting it a major weakness. Can the Cardinals score in a halfcourt game (as tournament games usually are) against strong competition when they absolutely have to come up with a bucket? In my view, that is still to be determined. If the answer is yes, Louisville will be your national champion. Read the rest of this entry »
Sports Business Daily: It was only a matter of time for this, but word has leaked that the ACC is looking into a conference channel like the Big Ten Network or Pac-12 Networks. Currently, ACC ratings are actually surprisingly strong in football (although without many huge games) considering the conference’s recent play. But a network wouldn’t be easy to pull off. My guess is that any ACC network would get pushed to the back burner until after the SEC’s network gets distributed.
Raleigh News & Observer: Not enough love for Richard Howell‘s performance was given here in the aftermath of NC State’s win over Duke. In the first half the Blue Devils kept things close (and looked like they might run away with the game for a while) thanks to strong work on the boards, but Howell grabbed almost every available board in the second half. He’s one of the strongest players in the league and he’s finally found a way to use his exceptional motor without also fouling. The Wolfpack need Howell to give them more games like that one if they want to finish on top of the league this season.
CBSSports.com: Ryan Kelly‘s injury may have opened the ACC race up. The biggest related questions are: (1) Can NC State play with the intensity it played with Saturday on a regular basis; and (2) Can Miami avoid its trademarked losing streaks? Based on the Wolfpack’s first two ACC games, their prognosis is troubling, but the game against Duke was excellent all-around. Miami is a bigger question mark. Its ceiling is decidedly lower than Duke or NC State’s, but it’s also a proven commodity on the road. In the end, look for Duke and one other team to vie for the top spot if Kelly is out of the lineup for more than two weeks.
Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon is starting to see familiar signs plaguing his point guard. The Terrapins are reeling after two straight losses and have gone from popular darkhorse contender to completely overrated in the span of a week. Now Turgeon is looking at a brutal four-game schedule that is like this: against NC State, at North Carolina, against Boston College, and at Duke. Those are three very losable games (I’d be surprised if Maryland was favored in any of them) with a classic trap game stuck in there too. Now’s not the time for dramatic changes, but Turgeon doesn’t have a lot of choice. The results of these four games will likely determine where Maryland’s postseason will be decided.
Daily Tar Heel: And in the inane Letters to the Editor category (from an alumnus no less), we have a letter calling for the firing of UNC head coach Roy Williams. Now, a pessimistic case could be made for Williams’ talent-driven system being disrupted by one John Calipari’s annual raids on the five-star recruit pantry. A much more reasonable argument would see this year as Williams getting burned by Kendall Marshall departing for the NBA early (something few expected) and the Wear twins transferring back home.
Poll Thoughts: There was a lot of discussion about who the new number one team should be after the last of the unbeatens, Michigan, went down over the weekend. The ACC part of the argument essentially came down to the fact that Duke is a very different team without Ryan Kelly on the floor and should be ranked as such. This (essentially a small sample size eye test), to me, is just as good an argument as basing your rankings entirely on resume. The one caveat to such a standpoint is that once Kelly returns, Duke should — assuming he’s at 100% — jump back to its previous standing. This is where the justification is flawed, as voters rarely jump teams near the top of the rankings without a loss. Luckily polls mean nothing but pride for college basketball.
EXTRA: In case missed the Miami-Maryland brick-laying contest, this GIF sums the game up remarkably well.
We are now three games into conference play and after a tremendous weekend that saw some of the best teams squaring off, the number one team go down, and a session of overtime, the hierarchy of the conference is coming into focus. Or maybe it is getting more muddled. In any case, even if it is still not clear which teams (besides Duke) are actually good, we did learn some other things this weekend:
Duke Isn’t Invincible. No one seriously thought this, but the occasional loose talk of the Blue Devils going undefeated turned out to be, unsurprisingly, a bit premature. Obviously, a road loss to North Carolina State with Duke’s most efficient scorer, Ryan Kelly, sitting on the bench is not bad. Still, it is hard to win games when your opponent shoots over 50% from the field, 50% from three, and makes 20 free throws. Duke’s defense has been solid this year on the whole, this was Duke’s first true road game, and the Wolfpack is one of the better offensive teams in the whole country, yet none of these excuses changes the fact that NC State handled the Blue Devils’ on the inside and Duke had no answer for Richard Howell.
Duke Clearly Is Not The Same Team Without Ryan Kelly
Miami Doesn’t Miss Reggie Johnson Yet. It seemed like the Hurricanes would miss the formidable big man after a two-game losing streak that not so coincidentally began when Johnson was injured. Since those two games, however, Miami has played very well, with veteran Julian Gamble filling Johnson’s shoes convincingly. The Hurricanes share a spot with the Wolfpack on top of the ACC standings, currently undefeated in conference play. Gamble’s production has looked great on the offensive end, and Miami’s defense has looked impressive. Still, the tempo-free percentages tell a story: Gamble just doesn’t match the rebounding prowess of Johnson. It hasn’t cost the Hurricanes yet, but it’s something to keep an eye on going forward. Read the rest of this entry »
And then there were none. We entered last week with four undefeated teams — Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Wyoming — but all faltered. Michigan was technically the last remaining undefeated team, but that lasted for less than 24 hours as the Wolverines lost Sunday afternoon to Ohio State in Columbus. Due to the crazy week that was, Louisville now moves into the #1 spot for the first time this season. The Cardinals’ lone loss came against Duke in the Bahamas back in November, and they hold the slimmest of edges on the Blue Devils in our poll (more on that after the Qn’D). It was also a tough week for two Big East teams while the Pac-12 is experiencing a resurgence with two teams entering the RTC25.
USA Today: In one of the cooler side stories of the year, NC State student Will Privette rushed the court… in his wheelchair. Pushed by the student body president, Privette led the charge to center court to celebrate the Wolfpack win over top-ranked Duke. As the mass of students came, he was knocked over before his 6’9″ savior, CJ Leslie scooped him up and held him “like how you’d hold a baby.” To add to the image Privette started screaming and cheering again once he realized he was safe. In the end only his wheelchair and phone were harmed.
Charlottesville Daily Progress: Calling for an “offensive coordinator” echoes similar rumblings as some talk out of Tallahassee the last few years. But Jerry Ratcliffe points to a more troubling development for the Cavaliers than an over-reliance on defense. Clemson shut Virginia down by giving it a taste of its own packed-in defense. Don’t expect an elite team to change its defense completely, but Clemson may have given weaker teams a silver bullet to beat the Cavaliers.
Winston-Salem Journal: Jeff Bzdelik may be saving his job. Combine signing a highly coveted top-50 recruit with a 2-1 record in ACC play, and suddenly Bzdelik’s seat is looking a whole lot cooler. There are still a lot of ACC games left to play though, so don’t set this in stone. At the end of the day, I don’t think Wake Forest is better than eleventh in the 12-team league, but so far it’s proving me wrong in a big way.
Orlando Sentinel: The Seminoles couldn’t hand North Carolina its third loss in as many games Saturday, but they are starting to show positive signs in the frontcourt. Okaro White still has to work on being consistently aggressive, and Terrance Shannon needs to keep shot selection in the back of his head. Last but not least, some of the younger guys need to step up. In the long run (i.e. over the course of his four-year career), Boris Bojanovsky is where my money goes. But in the short run, Leonard Hamilton needs more from his veterans.
AP (via ESPN): Fans out of Coral Gables may be able to breathe soon, as sources close to the NCAA’s investigation told the AP that the investigative gathering may be drawing to a close (assuming no other leads are unearthed in final interviews). This is a longtime coming and hopefully won’t put too much of a damper on Miami‘s great start to conference play.
EXTRA: You can find the second most inspirational story out of Raleigh Saturday below.
And then there were none. With Michigan and Duke going down over the weekend we are without an unbeaten team yet again as we are going on 37 years and counting since the last time men’s college basketball had an undefeated team. This year marks the second earliest point in a season we have been without an unbeaten team dating back to that 1976 season. We are pretty confident that barring some catastrophe or NCAA investigation Michigan will not be repeating the collapse that Clemson experienced in 2007 and became so synonymous with that program that it spawned its own word (even if it was later applied to the school’s football program).
While Michigan and Duke lost their first game of the season Syracuse may have lost much more as senior forward James Southerland was declared ineligible over the weekend for undisclosed reasons that some media sources are speculating is an academic matter. We still are not sure about whether or not Southerland can rectify whatever the problem is that led to this suspension and after last season’s Fab Melo disaster we can understand if Syracuse fans are having a sense of déjà vu, but this appears to be a slightly different situation particularly in that the team still has a chance to regroup. However, this has the potential to derail whatever chance the Orange had of making a national title run.
The scariest moment of the basketball weekend occurred on Saturday in Dayton, Ohio when Rotnei Clarke went headfirst into the basket stanchion and stayed on the floor for nearly eight minutes. Thankfully Butler’s sharpshooter appears to have only sustained a sprained neck. While Brad Stevens has stated that Clarke’s injury “is not season-ending by any means,” he is out of Wednesday’s game against Richmond and probably 50/50 for their showdown on Saturday against Gonzaga. Given the gravity of the situation and the potentially devastating/life-alternating nature of these situations we will be glad just to see Clarke back on the court again at any point in the near future.
As if Rick Pitino needed to engender any more animosity from Big Blue Nation he may have done it by comparing his current Louisville team to his legendary 1996 Kentucky team, which is considered by many to be one of the best college basketball teams of any era. Ok, maybe Pitino isn’t saying that this group is as good as that Kentucky team or that they even could be. Instead he is merely using that group of Wildcats as an example of how this group of Cardinals should aim to play in terms of style and fearlessness if not the end result of dominance. We can take issue with the lack of historical perspective that some of his players (particularly Chane Behanan) have. Of course, as the article points out Behanan was only three years old when that Kentucky team was playing so perhaps he deserves a little bit of a break.
With UCLA starting to show signs of life again perhaps it is fitting that both of the players who have transferred from the program this season have found new homes. With Josh Smith having committed to Georgetown recently, fellow former Bruin Tyler Lamb has also found a new home in the form of Long Beach State. Lamb is not quite the talent that Smith is, but he does not have as clear of an underlying issue as Smith does (weight). Instead, it appeared that Lamb’s issue was just that Ben Howland brought in more talented players, which pushed Lamb further down the bench and ultimately off the team. We would expect Lamb to have a prominent role at Long Beach State although it is a big step going from a role player to the star, but Lamb will have the benefit of playing against lesser competition than he did at UCLA (save your Pac-10/-12 jokes).
Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn.
The Weekend’s Lede. Embrace a New National Champion. The hustle and bustle of conference play boils down to one of two objectives: 1) scramble and fight and scrap your way into the NCAA Tournament; or, for the elite teams, 2) pile up enough evidence to be deemed worthy of a favorable draw and seed. The goal that ties those two together is reaching the championship game and, ideally, winning it. Kentucky made it look easy last season, and based on the way Calipari reloaded with another top recruiting class (albeit less heralded than the 2011 group), it was not unwise to believe he could do it again. That avenue remains open, in the crude sense that the Wildcats are still eligible for postseason competition. In actuality, the fate of their title defense season was sealed this weekend, when Kentucky allowed Texas A&M – a low-rung team in an uncharacteristically weak SEC – to deliver the Wildcats’ second home loss of the season. Given the talent at his disposal, and his experience in grooming, molding and motivating said talent, John Calipari could well propel his young team back into the national conversation. I just don’t see it. Saturday’s loss marked the unofficial retirement of UK’s faint repeat hopes. But don’t worry, next season’s rejiggered squad, anchored by what some are calling the greatest recruiting class of all time, can bring everything full circle. The championship trophy will not return to Lexington in March. That’s not official; it’s what my eyes tell me. There will be a new champion in 2013, and the weekend’s action shed more light on the race for that top prize.
Your Watercooler Moment. Number One Goes Down. (Wheelchair, Ahoy!)
The hyperbolic reviews surrounding Duke’s sterling nonconference performance were completely warranted. The Blue Devils navigated a minefield of ranked opponents, including three top five teams in a two- week span, and the conquest of an absolutely loaded Battle 4 Atlantis Field. Few teams have ever pieced together a November and December stretch with so many quality wins against so many good teams – wins that, in regard to Minnesota, VCU, Temple, Clemson and Santa Clara, are looking better and better by the week. The totality of accomplishment is almost immeasurable. The Blue Devils were thrust atop the polls and praised for their offensive efficiency. Mason Plumlee seized the early lead in the National Player Of The Year race. Seth Curry’s toughness (he has battled chronic leg pain all season) and resolve was eulogized. The outpouring of national praise almost made it feel like Duke was the only real team that mattered in the ACC. UNC had fallen off the map. NC State got tabbed with the “overrated” tag. Florida State was a sinking ship. What many seemed to conveniently forget was that the Wolfpack – the same team that (gasp!) lost to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor and at Michigan, causing large swaths of college hoops fans to write them off as a specious product of the preseason hype machine – were selected by the coaches and media in separate preseason polls to win the league outright. Those two early-season losses threw everyone off the Wolfpack bandwagon, which, come to think of it, might just be the best thing that ever happened to NC State’s season. While the nation fawned over Duke’s top-50 RPI wins and Plumlee’s double-doubles and Rasheed Sulaimon’s youthful verve, the Wolfpack were slowly, surely, methodically rounding into form. When the opportunity presented itself Saturday, as a Ryan Kelly-less Blue Devils team strolled into Raleigh, the Wolfpack did what every coach and media member predicted they’d do before the season began. They took care of the gaudy Blue Devils, and afterward, in the midst of a delirious post-game court-storming, the Wolfpack reveled in the culmination of their roller coaster season.
Also Worth Chatting About. Take Your Pick: Indiana or Michigan.
The Hoosiers’ offense didn’t miss a step in Saturday’s home win over Minnesota (Photo credit: AP Photo).
It required less than two weeks for conference competition to slay college basketball’s remaining unbeaten teams. Michigan had looked flawless in its first two Big Ten games, blowout wins over Northwestern and Iowa, generating all kinds of national championship hype along the way (the home win over Nebraska wasn’t as pretty, but it didn’t discredit the Wolverines’ glowing stature). Ohio State, meanwhile, exposed real flaws in a 19-point blowout loss at Purdue earlier in the week. Their faint hopes of pulling an upset at home against Michigan were, well, exactly that: faint. Michigan’s seeming invincibility, Ohio State’s disproportionate offense – any discussion of the Buckeyes invariably panned to a common concern over a lack of complementary scorers to supplement DeShaun Thomas – and the matchup advantages that implied, conveniently glossed over the fact that the Big Ten is a ruthless, rugged, unforgiving road, particularly when rivalries are involved. Ohio State’s victory proved, if nothing else, that the most extreme evaluations of each team to date – that Michigan is the best team in the country, and Ohio State a middle-pack-to-lower-tier Big Ten outfit – were a bit ambitious on both ends. In fact, the former trope may have been discredited before Michigan even took the floor Sunday, because Indiana, in its first real test since losing to Butler in early December, reminded everyone why the national consensus settled so firmly on the Hoosiers as the preseason number one team in the country. The final score at Assembly Hall Saturday will skew the reality of Indiana’s home toppling of Minnesota. The first half showcased an overwhelming offensive onslaught, fueled by rapid ball movement, aggressive and attentive defensive work, can’t-miss shooting aggressive and a booming home crowd. It was the epitome of Indiana’s basketball potential, bottled up into a 20-minute segment, unleashed on one of the nation’s best and most physical teams (Minnesota). An informal poll measuring the Big Ten’s best team following this weekend would favor Indiana, but I’m not so sure we can make that assumption based off two critical games. The conference season is a long and enduring grind. We’ll gather more evidence and draw that distinction later this winter. Deal?
With Duke’s first big ACC road test against pre-season conference favorite NC State looming on Saturday, all eyes have turned to how the Blue Devils will function without stretch forward Ryan Kelly. Kelly, who has been red-hot in Duke’s last three games as teams have started to meet NPOY candidate Mason Plumlee with frequent double-teams, is a huge component of Duke’s offense. Kelly leads Duke in offensive rating and for the season is shooting over 50% from the arc.
Ryan Kelly’s absence could provide Duke with the opportunity to develop some depth (Chicago Tribune)
While nothing seems certain, most people are estimating Kelly to be out for around a month, depending on how the foot (which is not fractured) responds to treatment. This opens up a phenomenal opportunity for Duke over this period to establish something that they have struggled with this season: post depth. Duke has essentially used a 6.5 man rotation this year, with its bench consisting of Tyler Thornton (over 20 minutes per game), along with junior Josh Hairston, will start at Kelly’s position in his absence, who averages just over 11 minutes a game. Freshmen Alex Murphy (5.6 mpg)and Amile Jefferson (8.8 mpg)are also likely to see extended minutes at the 4 with Kelly being out with his injury.
Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
College football is officially in the books and that means college hoops takes center stage. It’s going to be a great weekend of action highlighted by two Big Ten showdowns and an ACC battle that will shape the national picture. Good luck deciding which game you are going to watch at 12:00 PM EST tomorrow. Let’s get to the breakdowns.
#1 Duke at #21 North Carolina State – 12:00 PM EST, Saturday on ESPN (*****)
With the injury to Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee will need to muscle up on defense against NC State.
The ACC is starting to look like Duke, North Carolina State, Miami, and then everyone else. The big news for the Blue Devils going into Saturday is the loss of forward Ryan Kelly to a foot injury for an indefinite period of time. Kelly’s loss appears to be significant for Duke but we really will not know the entire story until Saturday’s game is over. Kelly’s outside shooting and overall scoring threat will be missed, but it may be his size on defense that is missed most. Duke will be left with either freshmen Amile Jefferson and Alex Harris or junior Josh Hairston to help Mason Plumlee defend the interior. With an extremely athletic front line, NC State will test the Blue Devils’ resolve right away. Expect the Wolfpack to try to overwhelm Plumlee down low by attacking the inside. By doing this, they will attempt to put Plumlee in foul trouble and get to the line. If Plumlee gets into foul trouble, it will be a very long afternoon in Raleigh for the Dukies. The team that plays better defense will win this game.
#9 Minnesota at #4 Indiana– 12:00 PM EST, Saturday on BTN (*****)
Minnesota made a statement in its blowout win at Illinois this week. They are looking for the Big Ten title and it’s going to take a great team to beat them. What’s most impressive about the win is actually their lack of offensive rebounding. That may seem like a crazy statement but when you consider how good they are on the offensive boards it makes sense. The Gophers lead the country in offensive rebounding percentage (OR%) at 48.5%. They are absolutely dominating that statistic. So when their OR% dipped to 25% against Illinois, their worst performance of the year, and yet they still won by 17 points, it means this team can do a lot more than just grab boards. Shooting 61% eFG proved that. Interestingly enough, however, it could be rebounding that derails the Gophers against Indiana. Minnesota actually struggles on the defensive boards and Indiana is ranked in the top 10 nationally there. With the incredible offensive weapons that Indiana has at its disposal, grabbing a bunch of misses is just salt in its opponents’ wounds. This game is going to be a great spectacle with tremendous match-ups all over the floor. Trevor Mbakwe against Cody Zeller might be the best big man battle we will see all year. If Minnesota can make it two road wins a row against the best in the Big Ten, watch out for Tubby Smith’s team.
