Rebounding From Tobacco Road Wins: How the ACC Performs After Beating Duke/UNC

Posted by mpatton on January 15th, 2013

Joe Giglio dug up an interesting statistic about NC State after it beats one of its Tobacco Road rivals. The Wolfpack are an abysmal 1-12 in conference games immediately following a win over Duke or North Carolina during the last two decades. With NC State’s game at Maryland looming Wednesday night, history seems very ominous for the Wolfpack (interestingly, the Terrapins are responsible for five of the 12 losses).

Is Mark Gottfried's squad headed for a loss at Maryland? History says yes.

Is Mark Gottfried’s squad headed for a loss at Maryland? History says yes.

But does the trend hold up for other ACC schools or is it limited to NC State? I looked back through the last 10 years (through the 2002-03 season), and teams have an overall 41-30 record after beating Duke or North Carolina. NC State’s 1-5 mark is by far the worst, and Miami is still an unblemished 4-0. Every other team has beaten the powerhouses at least four times. Maryland’s 13 wins is the most, followed by Wake Forest’s 11 and Georgia Tech’s nine. Now this doesn’t mean NC State is destined for a loss tomorrow night. The Wolfpack have a much better team than in years past. Their poor record may point more to tough games following the wins, but my guess is there is a pretty sizable letdown after a big win like that, especially right over in Raleigh. Regardless of the effect’s statistical significance, NC State should be a lot more worried about the facts that Maryland is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference and is desperate for a good win after limping to a 1-2 start in conference play.

The records of teams and a year-by-year breakdown after beating Duke or North Carolina after the jump.

  • Boston College: 2-2*
  • Clemson: 2-2
  • Florida State: 5-3
  • Georgia Tech: 6-3
  • Maryland: 8-5
  • Miami: 4-0*
  • NC State: 1-5
  • Virginia: 4-2
  • Virginia Tech: 3-3*
  • Wake Forest: 6-5

*Boston College, Miami and Virginia Tech did not join the ACC until the 2004-05 season

  • 2012-13 (1-1): Miami (W against Maryland), Virginia (L at Wake Forest)
  • 2011-12 (3-0): Florida State (W against Maryland, W at Wake Forest), Miami (W against Virginia Tech)
  • 2010-11 (2-1): Georgia Tech (W against Wake Forest), Florida State (W against NC State), Virginia Tech (L against Boston College)
  • 2009-10 (7-5): Georgia Tech (L at Virginia, L at Maryland, W against Clemson), NC State (L at Maryland), Maryland (L at Duke, W at Virginia), Clemson (W at NC State), Wake Forest (W against Virginia), Virginia (W against NC State–lost next nine games), Virginia Tech (W against Clemson), Boston College (W against Virginia Tech), Florida State (L against Clemson)
  • 2008-09 (1-5): Clemson (L against Florida State), Boston College (L against Harvard–L against Miami in next conference game, L at Miami), Wake Forest (W at Boston College, L at Georgia Tech), Maryland (L against Duke)
  • 2007-08 (1-2): Wake Forest (L at North Carolina–lost four straight), Miami (W against Maryland), Maryland (L against Duke)
  • 2006-07 (7-4): Virginia (W against Miami), Florida State (L at Clemson–lost five straight), Virginia Tech (W against UNC Greensboro–W against North Carolina, L at Florida State, L at NC State), NC State (L at Georgia Tech), Maryland (W at NC State, W at Duke, W against NC State–won seven straight), Georgia Tech (W against Florida State, W against Boston College)
  • 2005-06 (4-0): Florida State (W at Miami), Miami (W against Clemson), Virginia (W against Miami), Boston College (W against Georgia Tech)
  • 2004-05 (3-2): Maryland (W against Georgia Tech, L at NC State), Virginia Tech (W against Miami), Wake Forest (L at Florida State, W at Virginia Tech)
  • 2003-04 (5-4): NC State (L at Clemson), Wake Forest (W against North Carolina A&T–L at Duke, W at Georgia Tech), Maryland (L at Georgia Tech), Florida State (W against Wake Forest), Clemson (L at Duke), Georgia Tech (L at Virginia, W against Florida State), Virginia (W against Wake Forest)
  • 2002-03 (8-5): Virginia (L at Duke), Maryland (W at North Carolina, W at Clemson, W against Clemson), NC State (W against North Carolina, L at Maryland, L against Maryland), Georgia Tech (W against Virginia), Wake Forest (W against NC State, L at Maryland, W at NC State), Clemson (W at Virginia), Florida State (L at North Carolina)
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