Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Last Four In: Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Connecticut, San Diego State

Last Four Out: UAB, Dayton, Memphis, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Washington, Arizona State, Seton Hall

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, Duke, Jacksonville, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Ohio State, UC-Santa Barbara, Old Dominion, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Wofford, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Troy, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), WCC (2).

Next bracket update: Tuesday, March 9.

More analysis after the jump…

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Close Calls.  In two closer-than-expected games, #12 Michigan State and #18 Pittsburgh held on to their positions in the Big Ten and Big East, respectively, with quite a bit still on the line.  For MSU, it’s a shot at a shared Big Ten regular season title; for Pitt, it was a double-bye in the Big East Tournament next week.

• #18 Pittsburgh 73, Providence 71.  In a closely contested game throughout, it was Ashton Gibbs who saved Pittsburgh from what would have been their worst loss of the season at full strength (the IU loss in December was without several players).  With 3.5 seconds remaining, Gibbs (25/4/3 assts) received the ball at the right hash mark on the opposite end of his basket, took two dribbles before stopping and pulling up from about 28 feet to drain a game-winning three at the horn.  The bucket moved the Panthers to 12-5 in the Big East, and with a win over Rutgers this weekend in combination with a Villanova loss to WVU, the preseason-unranked kids from the Steel City would be the #2 seed in next week’s Big East Tournament.  Simply amazing considering the talent in that league this year.

Ashton Gibbs: "I Got This." (PPG/M. Freed)

• #12 Michigan State 67, Penn State 65.  We’re really not going to fall into this trap that Tom Izzo likes to set for us seemingly every year.  His teams always win a bunch of games, but many of those wins seem to come by a mere point or two, and they also lose a few more than you might expect.  Then the Spartans get into the NCAA Tournament and the very same players who were somewhat underwhelming during the regular season put it all together for another run to the Final Four.  So we’ll reserve judgment on this year’s MSU team until we see what happens later this month.  Tonight Penn State had the ball with five seconds remaining but they were unable to get a shot off to win or tie the game.  With the win, MSU moves to 13-4 in the Big Ten and the Spartans will host rival Michigan this weekend to try to tie Ohio State (and possibly Purdue) for the top record in the league.

Should Washington Join the Bubble Conversation Along With Ole Miss, Dayton and Arizona State?

• Washington 86, Oregon 72.  With an RPI of #53, twenty wins, and a better strength of schedule than its bubble peers Mississippi State and Virginia Tech, shouldn’t the Huskies at least be in the conversation?  They’ve beaten Texas A&M, Portland and Cal, which is a resume of quality Ws at least as good as Mississippi State (best win: Old Dominion), Dayton (best win: Xavier) and Virginia Tech (best win: Clemson).  We’re well aware how down the Pac-10 has been this year, but just because everyone has already seemed to decide that it’s a one-bid league shouldn’t make it necessarily so.  The resumes need to speak for themselves, and we’re having trouble understanding the difference between the above teams.  Quincy Pondexter had 34/10/6 assts in tonight’s win.

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Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Conference Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies

The top half of the conference has separated clearly from the lower half, despite a number of upsets over the last two weeks. Temple, lurking in the ranking just below the top, emerged as the top team according to the offensive-defensive differential. The statistics apparently provide a numeric affirmation to the AP pollsters at last. It is reassuring to find that the eyeball test and the numbers agree, Dayton notwithstanding. George Washington appears to have joined Dayton as an unlucky team; Pythagoras (based on conference games only) projects a .500 record for the Colonials, a development that if true, should come as very bad news for the Owls (and good news for Xavier). Saint Joseph’s and Fordham have separated from the rest of the conference, settling at the bottom with rather large negative differentials. La Salle sports a record similar to Saint Joseph’s, but their differential suggests this may be more a case of bad luck, than bad defense. This is a good illustration of how the won-loss record tend to more accurately reflect the loss of seniors Ruben Guillandeaux and Kimmani Barrett than the differentials. The differentials are slow to reflect significant (and rapid) changes in personnel (among other game-influencing factors), a fact frequently overlooked. In La Salle’s case, Pomeroy, using a calculation which also relies on cumulative statistical data, continues to project the Explorers as winners in one of their two remaining games. To the observer this may seem to be unjustifiably optimistic, but the rumored collapse of morale on Hawk Hill may eventually make Pomeroy’s projection correct. Right record, wrong opponent.

The Last Week

The teams are down to their last one-to-two games before Atlantic City. The Richmond-Xavier game eliminated Richmond from contention for the #1 seed. Temple can take the #1 spot by winning out. Xavier will take the #2 seed (unless the Musketeers lose both of their remaining games), and Richmond should take the #3 seed (though if the Spiders stumble very badly their fall could scramble seeds #3 through #7). George Washington, Duquesne and St. Bonaventure are locked in a three-way tie for eighth place, but the head-to-head game between St. Bonaventure and Duquesne should drop the loser to the bottom of that cluster (unless Massachusetts puts on a closing rush). The winner is not, however, guaranteed the #8 seed. La Salle and Saint Joseph’s are also tied (for twelfth place), but their season-closing game should settle the seed, and other issues.

Standings (as of 03/02/2010)

1. Temple (12-2, 24-5, #16 AP)
2. Xavier (12-2, 21-7, #25 AP)
3. Richmond (11-3, 22-7)
4. St. Louis (10-4, 19-9)
5. Charlotte (9-5, 19-9)
6. Rhode Island (8-6, 20-7)
7. Dayton (8-6, 19-9)
8. George Washington (6-8, 16-11)
9. Duquesne (6-8, 15-13)
10. St. Bonaventure (6-8, 13-14)
11. Massachusetts (4-10, 10-18)
12. La Salle (3-11, 11-17)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-11, 9-19)
14. Fordham (0-14, 2-14)

Team Rundowns

• Charlotte.  February was a cruel month for Coach Lutz and the 49ers. They closed the books for the month going 3-4, and 1-4 in their last five games. They opened the month at the top of the conference and very much in the dicussion for an NCAA bid, but they have fallen to #5 in the conference and among Zach Hayes’ “Next Four Out”. Their last two games will not be easy, as both come against conference rivals who compete directly for seeds #3 through #6. First they travel to New England for a game at Rhode Island on Wednesday (3/3). The Rams, ranked #6 in the conference this week, are listed among the “Last Four Out”. The loser will most likely fall off the bubble. Their regular season final versus Richmond (currently #3 in conference standings) provides the 49ers with an opportunity to wreak a little havoc. Should Charlotte sweep both games they will find themselves in a two or three way tie for the #3 seed. Lose both and they will most likely draw the #7 seed.
• Dayton.  The Flyers started the week with a big (but hardly unexpected) 49-41 loss at Temple. The low score hints at a defensive struggle, which indeed it was. The pace, about 60 for each team, is low for D1 (the average, per Ken Pomeroy, is 67.5), but certainly enough possessions had the teams played to their offensive ratings for a score in the mid-to-high 60s. The Flyers did manage 45 rebounds (against 41 points) and about 0.67 points per possession on offense. The rebounds were overwhelmingly defensive — the Flyers snagged 75% of Temple’s misses, but only 28% of their own. Dayton took their revenge on the Minutemen 96-68, on Saturday (2/27). Tied at sixth in conference with an 8-6 record, the Flyers have opportunities to improve their conference tournament seed and, listed as one of “The Last Four Out” by Zach Hayes (and among the #1 seeds by NIT-ology), to work their way back into the field of 65. Dayton travels to Richmond for a Thursday (3/4) game, then back to Dayton to close the season versus St. Louis. Both teams are higher in the conference pecking order, so a Flyer sweep could scramble the tournament seeds (#3 through #7) going into Atlantic City.
• Duquesne.  Duquesne lost their only game last week, a 69-59 road loss to St. Louis, on Saturday (2/27). The Dukes are in a three-way tie with St. Bonaventure and George Washington, for the eighth seed in the conference tournament. Should they sweep their last two games, at rival St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (3/3) and a home closer against Fordham on Friday (3/5), Duquesne can square their conference record at eight, and secure the #8 seed in Atlantic City. Lose both, and the Dukes could fall to #10.
• Fordham.  The Rams dropped their only game last week, and the prospects for a winless conference run loom larger. Ken Pomeroy’s projection moved up to 94%, and with a home game versus Xavier next, the road closer at Duquesne is most likely their last best chance.
• George Washington.  The Colonials ran off two wins last week, an 81-72 win over a staggering La Salle squad, and 75-70 win that hurt Charlotte’s postseason prospects rather badly. At 6-8, George Washington is playing for seed, specifically #8, at the conference tournament. They have a harder road than Duquesne, but easier than St. Bonaventure, as they play Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (3/3) and Temple on the road Saturday (3/6).
• La Salle.  The Explorers ran their losing streak to eight with losses last week to George Washington 81-72, on Wednesday (2/24) and Temple (for the second time) 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). They have two more games left before they head into Atlantic City (as either a #12 or #13 seed) and close the book on this season. They host Massachusetts on Wednesday (3/3), then close out their Big 5 series with a game at Saint Joseph’s on Saturday (3/6) in a game that will most likely decide the fourth place team in the Big 5 series and the #11 through #13 seeds in Atlantic City. Temple wins it outright this year with a 4-0 record. Villanova finishes second with a 3-1 record, while La Salle and Saint Josephs’s both have a 1-2 record going into their last game. Penn finishes last with an 0-4 record.  If the Explorers can salvage anything from this season, it may be a win over cross city rival Saint Joseph’s.
• Massachusetts.  The Minutemen dropped their only game last week 96-68 on the road to Dayton. They finish out the regular season with a last road trip to Philadelphia on Wednesday (3/3) to take on La Salle, then return home to close the regular season against Rhode Island on Saturday (3/6). Lose to La Salle, and Massachusetts drops into an 11th-place tie with La Salle. Unfortunately for Massachusetts, they lose that particular tiebreaker. Though Rhode Island dropped a late season game to St. Bonaventure last week, the chances they drop a second late season upset is probably very small.
• Rhode Island.  Their loss to St. Bonaventure 81-74 on Saturday (2/27) was unexpected and a case of very inconvenient timing. The Rams have little time and opportunity to “get that one back.” The Rams have two games left — a home game versus Charlotte on Wednesday (3/3) and a road closer in Amherst, MA, on Saturday (3/6). The Charlotte game has both conference tournament seed and postseason implications. Though both teams are considered, by consensus, out of the field of 65, the winner will most likely remain on the bubble, pending conference play and the state of the field at the end of next week.
• Richmond.  The Spiders took a very tough road loss in Cincinnati on Sunday (2/28). Their game with Xavier went to two overtimes before they lost by two points, 78-76. The loss cost them not only the #1 seed in the conference tournament, but it also dropped them out of the AP’s Top 25 poll, Xavier moving into it in their stead. Coach Mooney’s squad has two more games, nearly as difficult, before Atlantic City. The first is a home game with Dayton on Thursday (3/4); the second is a road game at Halton Arena, with Charlotte, on Saturday (3/6). Should the Spiders sweep they will secure their spot in the conference tournament (and the NCAA’s field of 65), but also burst both Dayton’s and Charlotte’s bubbles.
• Saint Joseph’s.  Saint Joseph’s losing streak has extended to five games with a road loss to Charlotte last Wednesday (2/24). The Hawks travel to DC to play George Washington on Wednesday (3/3), in a game they are expected (according to Ken Pomeroy) to lose. They close out regular season play by hosting La Salle in a game that will close out both school’s conference play and their Big 5 series play. Tied with La Salle, both in the conference (3-11) and in the City Series (1-2), the Saturday game will determine who gets the #12 (and #13) seed in Atlantic City and who finishes #3 (and #4) in the Philadelphia City Series.
• St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies sprung an upset on Rhode Island 81-74, on Saturday (2/27), extending their winning streak to three games, matching the longest winning streak of their 2010 season. Coach Schmidt’s squad reached their 2009 conference win total with two games in hand. Wednesday (3/3) they host Duquesne, probably their best opportunity for win number seven. A win over Duquesne would provide a temporary advantage for the #9 seed in the conference tournament, they close out the regular season with a road game in Cincinnati, versus Xavier, on Saturday (3/6).
• St. Louis.  Coach Majerus’ team notched their only loss in February when they dropped a 73-71 decision to Xavier, on Wednesday (2/24). They closed February with a 7-1 record as they beat Duquesne 69-59, Saturday (2/27). St. Louis’ current record, 19-9, is a decided improvement over last season, but the Billikens will be hard pressed to notch win number 20 before Atlantic City, as they host Temple Wednesday (3/3), then take to the road to close the regular season at Dayton on Saturday (3/6).
• Temple.  The Owls had a good week, beating Dayton 49-41, in a defensive tug-of-war, on Wednesday (2/24), then clinching the Big 5 title outright with a 4-0 record, by beating La Salle 65-53, on Sunday (2/28). The Owls moved up to #16 in the AP poll on Monday and, by consensus, is projected as a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Coach Dunphy’s squad has two more games in the conference regular season. They travel to St. Louis to play the Billikens on Wednesday (3/3), then return home to close out the season by hosting George Washington on Saturday (3/6). The Billikens will be a good test for Temple. The game will most likely be a defensive struggle, though not on the “rock fight” style of the Temple-Dayton game last week. A second consecutive 2-0 week would put Temple’s winning streak at seven, and give the Owls a 9-1 “Last Ten” record going into Atlantic City.
• Xavier.  In a make-or-break week, the Musketeers and their rookie head coach came through with two close but necessary wins. They earned a #25 rank in the AP poll after beating a challenging St. Louis team 73-71, on the road Wednesday (2/24), and taking down the conference-leading Richmond Spiders 78-76, in a game that went into two overtimes, on Sunday (2/28). They have largely secured at least a #2 seed for Atlantic City, with the potential to move up should Temple stumble this week. With only a stricken Fordham squad on Wednesday (3/3) and a middle-of-the-pack St. Bonaventure team on Saturday (3/6) left on their schedule, Xavier, 9-1 in their last 10 games, is catching fire at the right time. They could sail into Atlantic City with a seven-game winning streak at their back.

Games to Catch

• Charlotte at Rhode Island – Wednesday 3/3 — Each team has inside and outside scorers who drive their offense — Shamari Spears, DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green for Charlotte versus Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran for Rhode Island. The “tie breaker” may well come down to their star freshmen, Akeem Richmond for Rhode Island and Chris Braswell for Charlotte. The 49ers and Rams took turns at the top of the conference back in January. The winner may be contention for the #4 seed and the last bye in the conference tournament and a place on the bubble for the NCAAs. The loser plays Tuesday night and gets the fast track to the NIT.
• Temple at St. Louis – Wednesday 3/3 — Temple’s last big road test in the conference this season. The Owls have virtually clinched a #1 or #2 seed in the conference tournament next week, but winning this game would give them a strong leg up for the top spot. St. Louis has been tough in Chaifetz Arena, going 14-2 this season. The Billikens are off the radar for the NCAA Tournament, the product of a young team and inconsistent run through their out of conference schedule, but a win here would turn a few heads, and give them some momentum going into Dayton (on Saturday) and then to Atlantic City.
• Dayton at Richmond – Thursday 3/4 — Dayton needs another good win to bolster their NCAA resume. Richmond, after a tough loss at Xavier on Sunday, needs a bounceback game to rebuild their momentum going into Atlantic City. The game will match two of the conference’s more deliberate (and efficient) offenses and best defenses. Dayton’s more athletic frontcourt could present some match-up problems for Richmond. On the other hand, which Flyer will draw Justin Harper as their defensive assignment?
• St. Louis at Dayton – Saturday 3/6 — Another weekend, and the conference-makers give Dayton another low possession, highly efficient offense to test the Flyers’ defense. If St. Louis comes in having taken a loss on Wednesday, while Dayton comes in having won on Thursday, a Dayton win would bring in the tie breaker rules to sort out seeds #4 and #5 (and maybe #6).

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

Only 11 days until the brackets are revealed. This calls for another bubble update. Here are the teams joining the esteemed lock category this week:

Clemson– The Tigers avoided a late-season collapse and secured a bid last night with their win over Georgia Tech. The Sunday night road win at Florida State was also of great importance. Clemson now has five wins vs. the RPI top-50 and guaranteed themselves an above .500 record in the ACC.

Marquette– The Golden Eagles finally didn’t play a nail-biter last night, instead blowing out Louisville in exclamatory fashion. Marquette is now 11-6 in the Big East with a home game vs. Notre Dame remaining. The committee won’t deny an 11-win Big East team.

California– I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a regular season champion of a Power 6 conference out of the NCAA Tournament. The Pac-10 will be a two-bid league if anyone else wins the conference tournament next week.

Northern Iowa– The RPI remains very high (20) and the Panthers dominated the Missouri Valley from start to finish. Even with an early loss in St. Louis, they won’t fall enough to lose out on a bid.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Rhode Island (35 RPI, 67 SOS)– The Rams have lost four of five at the least opportune time and now face the realistic possibility of another February collapse to the NIT. The loss on Saturday at St. Bonaventure was an absolute killer. Rhode Island features just two wins vs. the RPI top-50 and their best non-conference win came in a virtual home game with Oklahoma State. They face a must-win scenario tonight at home against Charlotte in a virtual elimination game. With the bubble only shrinking in the coming days, this is a make-or-break game for the Rams unless they win the A-10 Tournament.

Dayton (41 RPI, 37 SOS)– The Flyers did defeat Georgia Tech, Old Dominion and Xavier this season, but close losses at the hands of New Mexico, Duquesne, Rhode Island and St. Louis are really hurting their chances. Dayton has now dropped out of a large majority of projected brackets and faces a daunting task tonight at Richmond. If they’re able to overcome their road woes and take down the Spiders, Dayton would be a candidate to re-claim a bid. If not, they’ll need to win a handful of games in Atlantic City next week. The Flyers are just 5-8 vs. the RPI top-100.

Charlotte (62 RPI, 111 SOS)– Despite the 9-5 conference mark, the 49ers resume is looking weaker and weaker by the day. They were blown out by Duke, Old Dominion and Tennessee in non-conference play and have recently lost four of five, including Duquesne at home and at George Washington. The computer numbers are also tanking. The opportunity is present, though, to creep back. Charlotte’s final two games are at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. At the very worst, they need to split those two games and make the A-10 Tournament finals with just four wins vs. the RPI top-100.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson

Wake Forest (29 RPI, 34 SOS)– The Deacons looked to be safe just a mere ten days ago, but two stunning defeats at the hands of ACC bottom-feeders NC State and North Carolina are reminding Wake fans of their teams’ stunning collapse last season. Don’t fret too much: Wake has a handful of quality wins- at Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland, Georgia Tech- and a respectable RPI/SOS. All the Deacons have to do is win more game and they’re in, whether it comes at Florida State tonight, home vs. Clemson on Sunday night or in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

Georgia Tech (33 RPI, 22 SOS)– The RPI/SOS and four wins vs. the RPI top-50 are nice, but there’s certainly holes in the Jackets portfolio. Their best non-conference wins came over USC and Charlotte and the yo-yo ACC season continued last night with a blowout loss at Clemson, dropping Georgia Tech back under .500 in the ACC. Paul Hewitt won’t have to sweat out Selection Sunday if they just take care of business Saturday at home against fellow bubble squad Virginia Tech. 8-8 in the ACC with wins over Duke, Clemson and Wake Forest should be enough for a bid, even if a double-digit seed is likely.

Florida State (42 RPI, 49 SOS)– If one looks closer at the Seminoles overall portfolio, it’s glaringly unimpressive. They have two wins vs. the RPI top-50- a sweep of Georgia Tech. They have one quality non-conference win on a neutral floor against Marquette. Luckily for Leonard Hamilton, Florida State did win the majority of games they were supposed to and also knocked off fellow ACC bubble team Virginia Tech in Tallahassee. The last two games- Wake Forest and at Miami- also lean towards the favorable side. The ‘Noles should probably win both to feel safe, but even am 9-7 ACC mark might be enough as long as they are not upset in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.

FSU faces Wake tonight in one of many big games

Virginia Tech (52 RPI, 157 SOS)– The Hokies have lost three in a row in late February to put themselves in a precarious position. The defeats at Duke and in double-OT to Maryland are excusable, but the 20-point blowout at Boston College is one the committee won’t overlook. We’ve beaten the horrid non-conference schedule to death, a factor that will prove as an anchor to their resume on Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech needs to win twice to make absolutely sure of a spot in the field. It starts tonight with NC State in Blacksburg. Win that and split their final two games- at Georgia Tech and ACC Tournament first round- and Seth Greenberg can breathe a sigh of relief.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State

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As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday.

(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing. Auto bids marked in italics).

#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue

#2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia

#3 Seeds: Georgetown, New Mexico, Ohio State, Pittsburgh

#4 Seeds: Vanderbilt, BYU, Temple, Wisconsin

#5 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Butler, Baylor

#6 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Tennessee

#7 Seeds: Wake Forest, Richmond, Maryland, Northern Iowa

#8 Seeds: Missouri, UNLV, Florida State, Illinois

#9 Seeds: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UTEP

#10 Seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Marquette, California

#11 Seeds: Louisville, Old Dominion, Rhode Island, UAB

#12 Seeds: Connecticut, Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Siena

#13 Seeds: Cornell, Charlotte, Kent State, Oakland

#14 Seeds: Murray State, Wofford, Weber State, Sam Houston State

#15 Seeds: Morgan State, Coastal Carolina, North Texas, UC-Santa Barbara

#16 Seeds: Jacksonville, Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Jackson State

Last Four In: Charlotte, Saint Mary’s, Connecticut, UAB

Last Four Out: Mississippi State, Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona State

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Notre Dame

Bids per conference: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Conference USA (2).

Analysis after the break:

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RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

With just over two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the bubble is starting to shrink as more teams move into lock status:

Richmond– The current A-10 co-leader has the most difficult stretch to finish the season with trips to Xavier and Charlotte and a home date with Dayton. Even losing all three wouldn’t squash the Spiders.

Xavier– The Musketeers really only needed to split their road trip at Charlotte and St. Louis. Instead, they went out and won both. With a high RPI and three winnable games left, Xavier is back in the field yet again.

Maryland– The Terrapins have now won four in a row and collected huge home wins over Georgia Tech in miracle fashion and Clemson in comeback fashion. Gary Williams has his squad 10-3 in the ACC.

Missouri– Mike Anderson’s team only needs to win one of their next four games (the four includes their first round matchup in the Big 12 Tournament). The home win over Texas pretty much sealed the deal.

Baylor– The Bears clinched a berth with their squeaker over Texas A&M last night in Waco. Their non-conference wins over Xavier (neutral) and at Arizona State seems a bit stronger, as well.

Texas– Winning at Texas Tech and taking care of Oklahoma State in Austin were the clinchers. Texas has four wins vs. the RPI top-50, but could still finish at a disappointing 9-7 in the Big 12.

Texas A&M– The win at Iowa State last Saturday clinched their bid. The Aggies have tremendous computer numbers, won at Missouri and beat Baylor at home.

UNLV– A lock for two reasons: 1) wins over BYU, at New Mexico, at Arizona and vs. Louisville and 2) their final two games against Wyoming and Air Force, teams that have combined for three MWC wins this season.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Rhode Island (28 RPI, 60 SOS)- The Rams hit a rough patch in mid-February losing three in a row in A-10 play, but they righted the ship this past Saturday against hapless Fordham and now head into their last three very winnable games. URI must travel to St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts with a huge bubble game against Charlotte at home sandwiched in between. If the Rams win out, they’ll finish 23-6 (11-5) in a strong Atlantic 10 and would, in all likelihood, received a bid as long as they’re not upset in the first round of the conference tournament. What’s concerning is that the Rams will head into that tournament with just two wins vs. the RPI top 50- Oklahoma State and Dayton. Current seed range: 11-12.

Dayton (43 RPI, 37 RPI)– Speaking of Dayton, unless the Flyers can stun Richmond on the road, they’ll be sitting squarely on the bubble heading into the A-10 tournament. Dayton probably passes the eye test and they do have out-of-conference wins over Georgia Tech on a neutral floor and Old Dominion. They’ve also lost a handful of close conference road games and beat fellow bubble squad Charlotte by 28 in their lone meeting. Still, the Flyers are just 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 vs. the RPI top 100, and, factoring in a loss at Richmond on March 4, they’d finish an uninspiring 9-7 in A-10 play. It’ll come down to the A-10 tournament for the preseason favorites. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Charlotte (55 RPI, 106 SOS)– The 49ers still have a shot to make the NCAA’s, but blew a golden opportunity at home against Xavier last Saturday to pick up an RPI top-25 win and lost by 14. Now they have to win two of their last three at George Washington, at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. Charlotte did pick up a big non-conference win at Louisville, but will the committee factor in the Cardinals depleted state at the time? What will help them more are A-10 wins over Temple and at Richmond. A 106 SOS and just four wins vs. the RPI top-100 doesn’t help the cause. They need to split those last two games to have a real shot. Current seed range: Last four out.

Bobby Lutz's 49ers are currently on the outside looking in

ACC

Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland

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Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Conference Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies

The efficiencies delineate the conference’s upper and lower division rather clearly…with one or two exceptions. Richmond, Temple and Xavier cluster clearly as top tier, consistent with, if not identical to, their conference records. Joining them as an outlier is Dayton, the team that entered the season with great expectations, but has fallen a bit short. St. Louis and Rhode Island form the next tier, with Charlotte next in line, but grouped with the lower division teams. Charlotte in particular is a paradox. The 49ers have had a number of very bad outings, particularly on the road (though in fairness they have had a good out of conference win on the road too). Charlotte has been a “better than average” team at home, but more a wimp than a warrior on the road. Among the lower division teams George Washington stands apart. The Colonials have, looking at all games this season, a surprisingly strong away efficiency differential, but a weaker than expected home differential. The differential suggests they should have a better record (by about 2 wins) than they do. Looking ahead, the Pythagorean winning percentage formula (conference games only) suggest the Colonials will sweep their remaining games. With closing games at Rhode Island and versus Richmond, I do not see a sweep as a likely outcome.

The Races Within the Race

The three-way (#1 & #2/#3 — Richmond and Temple/Xavier) race at the top of the conference represents only one of several heated standings races as the conference regular season enters it’s last two weeks. Rewards going to the winners of those mini-battles include seeds and pairings in Atlantic City, possible postseason invitations and for a few another opportunity or two to redeem irredeemable seasons. Just below the three leaders stand four teams battling it out for seeds #4 through #7. Theoretically St. Louis or Charlotte may be able to overcome one or more of the top tier teams, but their remaining schedules, loaded with fellow second tier opponents, makes those schedules seems less like a stepping stone and more like an elimination process. Charlotte has only one top tier team remaining, but must face an also hopeful Rhode Island team that would welcome every win it can gather at this point in the season. St. Louis still has Temple and Xavier to play, and as a bonus gets them both in the friendly confines of Chaifetz Arena. They also have to take to the road for their last game — Dayton, before heading out to Atlantic City. So the Billikens could hand another loss on both the Owls and the Musketeers, but still fall behind them by losing to Dayton. Should the Billikens lose either or both of those games, their season-closer in Dayton becomes even more important to both teams, as it could well be a battle that decides the #5, #6 and #7 seeds in the conference tournament. Fordham has largely lost contact with the rest of the conference, but George Washington, St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts and La Salle are all within a loss of each other in spots #8 through #11, with Saint Joseph’s just another loss (at 10) behind that cluster. Within that group only George Washington has a winning record, and an outside chance at a post season bid (NIT or CBI possibly). An inopportune losing would sink the Colonials. A late season surge by the Bonnies on the other hand, could put Coach Schmidt’s squad over the .500 mark, and lend promise to an otherwise very uneven season.

Standings as of – 02/23/10

1. Richmond (11-2, 22-6 #24 AP)
2. Temple (10-2, 22-5, #18 AP)
3. Xavier (10-2, 19-7)
4. St. Louis (9-3, 18-8)
5. Charlotte (8-4, 18-8)
6. Rhode Island (8-5, 20-6)
7. Dayton (7-5, 18-8)
8. Duquesne (6-7, 15-12)
9. George Washington (4-8, 14-11)
10. St. Bonaventure (4-8, 11-14)
11. Massachusetts (4-9, 10-17)
12. La Salle (3-9, 11-15)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-10, 9-18)
14. Fordham (0-13, 2-23)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

Charlotte lost two more games last week. The A10’s leader earlier this month has now dropped back to join Rhode Island and Dayton at the bottom of the upper division. The heretofore reliable Shamari Spears and Derrio Green have faltered, and with them, the 49ers’ fortunes. For the Dayton, Duquesne and Xavier games, the two players have taken 66%, 59% and 76% of the shots when they have been on the floor together. Having 40% of your rotation take 60% and more of your field goal attempts makes defense much easier. Having freshman Chris Braswell and junior An’Juan Wilderness (and virtually the rest of the squad as well) struggling offensively does not take the pressure to drive the offense off of Green and Spears. Rush the Court bracketologist Zach Hayes lists the 49ers among the last four out in his February 22 column.

If the turnaround is to happen for the 49ers, it will have to start this week. Charlotte will host Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday (2/24) and travel to DC for a Saturday (2/27) game with George Washington. The homestretch includes games with Rhode Island and Richmond before taking off for Atlantic City and the conference tournament. Beating both the Hawks and Colonials will be necessary to stay ahead of Rhode Island, and keep Charlotte in position to move up should any of the top three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) stumble at the end.

Dayton

The Flyers beat a crippled La Salle team Thursday (2/18) 68-54, but inexplicably dropped their road game with Duquesne 73-71, on Sunday (2/21). Three losses behind the conference leaders with four games to play means Coach Gregory’s team is nearly (mathematically) out of the race for the regular season conference title. They may still have games to play with Temple (Wednesday 2/24) and Richmond (Thursday 3/4), but at this point in the season, with their RPI drifting into the mid-high 40s, RTC’s Zach Hayes has them listed among the last four in with good reason.

Next up is Temple in Philadelphia on Wednesday (2/24) — a win would probably cinch their spot in the field of 65 — then a Saturday (2/27) home game with Massachusetts.

Duquesne

The Dukes decided to play spoiler last week, beating contenders Charlotte in Charlotte 83-77, on Wednesday (2/17), then returning to Pittsburgh to beat Dayton, 73-71 on Sunday (2/21). After a disappointing 2-5 in January, Coach Everhart’s squad has put together a 4-2 (and counting) February. The revival will not be enough to get them back into the postseason conversation, but they can force another squad or two to join them in an early off-season.

Duquesne has two road games this week. First stop is the also-hot St. Louis on Saturday (2/27), and then a trip to Olean, NY, for a tilt with St. Bonaventure on Wednesday (3/3).

Fordham

Two more games tallies to two more losses for Coach Grasso’s team. The Rams’ biggest challenge in the last four regular season games will be to find their first A10 win. The prognosis grows gloomier by the game; Pomeroy puts their probability of going winless at 78.5% as of Tuesday (2/23). Fordham’s last best chance comes quickly — St. Bonaventure, at Rose Hill, on Wednesday (2/24).

George Washington

The Colonials beat Massachusetts in DC 66-60 on Wednesday (2/17), but dropped their road game in a 74-70 squeaker, to Richmond on Saturday (2/20). GW is one loss out of a three-way tie for ninth place. With hope for life after Atlantic City largely reduced to the NIT (or CBI?), Coach Hobbs has to, in the back of his mind perhaps, look to what experience the underclassmen can get as preparation for next season. Freshman Lasan Kromah, co-winner of his third Rookie of the Week citation, has to be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year honors. Several sophomores have shown potential as well, so the nucleus may be in place for an upward move in 2011.

George Washington will host La Salle on Wednesday (2/24), and Charlotte on Saturday (2/27).

La Salle

Another week through which the crippled Explorers have to pass to get to the end of the season. The good news is no additions to the injured list. The bad news was two more losses.

Next up for the Explorers is a trip to DC and a game with George Washington on Wednesday (2/24) and home to host Temple in their Big 5 game on Sunday (2/21). The preseason expectation for the Temple-La Salle match was that this game would be an excellent game with which to close the City Series this season. La Salle’s casualty list has deferred the exciting matchup for another season perhaps.

Massachusetts

The Minutemen dropped two games last week, a 66-60 loss in DC to George Washington last Wednesday (2/17) and a 69-56 loss to St. Louis last Sunday (2/21). Coach Kellogg’s squad will travel to Dayton to take on the Flyers Saturday (2/27), then head into their last full week of play against La Salle and Rhode Island.

Rhode Island

Freshman Akeem Richmond shared Rookie of the Week honors (the second time he has been named) for averaging 19 points in the two games Rhode Island played last week. Unfortunately, the Rams finished the week 1-1, rather than 2-0. The loss, 62-57 to St. Louis last Wednesday (2/17), extended their losing streak to three. Their weekend 101-75 win over Fordham last Saturday (2/20).

Rhode Island travels to St. Bonaventure for a game Saturday (2/27) before taking on Charlotte and Massachusetts to close out the season.

Richmond

The Spiders moved up to #24 in the AP Top 25 this past Monday, as Coach Mooney’s squad continues to jockey with Temple and Xavier for top ranking in the conference. Richmond holds a half-game advantage by virtue of an additional win, but that should even out as the others complete their schedule. Adding to the honors, junior guard Kevin Anderson was recognized as co-player of the week for the second time. The announcement cited his 19-point effort against Fordham and his 24-point night against George Washington. Richmond’s efficiency differential has them ranked #3 in the conference, largely on their offense. The Spiders’ weakness is offensive rebounding, a statistic which suggests they have rebounded only 24% of their misses, the lowest rebounding margin in conference play. The lack of board presence (they are ranked #11 for defensive rebounding percentage, slightly better than their #16 ranking for ORebs) is a common feature in teams that employ perimeter-oriented offenses like the Princeton Offense favored by Coach Mooney. RTC bracketologist Zach Hayes moved Richmond up to a #6 seed, assigned to the Salt Lake City Region, in his February 22 column.

Richmond gets back to business this week with a game at Xavier on Sunday (2/28) and a last home game with Dayton on Thursday (3/4).

Saint Joseph’s

Saint Joseph’s losing streak has extended to four games with a two-loss week. The Hawks suffered a 38 point beating, 88-52, at the hands of Xavier in Cincinnati last Wednesday (2/17), and an overtime loss in their Big 5 game with Temple 75-67, on Saturday (2/20). For the Hawks and Coach Martelli, the opponent may well have become despair, rather than Big 5 or A10 opponents. Rumors on Hawk Hill have freshman guard Carl Jones mulling a transfer to USC in the off season. Jones, the brightest light in the 2010 entering class for Saint Joseph’s, would be the third guard in the last three seasons to transfer after his freshmen year.

The Hawks travel to Charlotte for a game Wednesday (2/24), then to DC for their last conference road game this season next Wednesday (3/3) with George Washington.

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies lost to Temple 73-55, last Wednesday (2/17), but beat a staggering La Salle squad 77-66, on Sunday (2/21). The road win was promising, as the Bonnies have found the road not very kind at all this season. They have to run the table to level their conference record at 8-8, but a road game with Fordham on Wednesday (2/24) should, if all goes well, go down as their second consecutive road win, a promising sign going into Atlantic City (and next season). They return home to host Rhode Island, a one-time conference leader whose February record so far is a disappointing 3-3, on Saturday (2/27). Four wins in hand with a good chance for number five coming against Fordham leaves the Bonnies with three opportunities to notch number six, and match last season’s conference win total, and a possible ninth place finish.

St. Louis

Coach Majerus’ team beat Rhode Island 62-57, on Wednesday (2/17), which put another loss between Billikens and the Rams in conference play. Every loss (and win) counts. They ran their February winning streak to six on Sunday (2/21) with a road win, 69-56, at Massachusetts. Two more February games, Wednesday (2/24) they host top tiered Xavier and Saturday (2/27) they host and close out their mirror series with Duquesne. Winning both may well put St. Louis into the NCAA conversation, as Xavier would be a quality win. They are not on anyone’s radar at this point. St. Louis is 18-8 right now, even finishing the conference with a 2-2 run would give them 20 wins, an 11-5 conference record (along with, most likely, a four seed in the A10 Tournament) and life beyond Atlantic City (if not the NCAA, then the NIT or CBI). Given their ninth place, 18-14, 8-8 finish last season, this would be progress.

Temple

The Owls won both of their games last week pushing their conference record to 10-2 and keeping pace (in the loss column) with Richmond. They moved up to #21 in the AP poll, and continue to be listed as “in” Wednesday (2/17) they beat St. Bonaventure, 73-55, and then crossed town on Saturday (2/20) to Saint Joseph’s 75-67, and take their Big 5-designated game in overtime.

Coach Dunphy’s team will host Dayton on Wednesday (2/24) and close out their Big 5 series with a home game against La Salle on Sunday (2/28). Should the Owls beat the Explorers they would take their first outright Big 5 title in 14 seasons. Temple shared the title with Villanova in 2008 and 2005.

Xavier

The Musketeers jumped to the top of the efficiency differential with two strong, double digit wins last week. They beat Saint Joseph’s by 26 points 88-52, on Wednesday (2/17) and Charlotte by 14 points 81-67, on Saturday (2/20).

Xavier travels to St. Louis for an important game with St. Louis on Wednesday (2/24), then back to Cincinnati for a Sunday (2/28) game with rival Richmond. The Musketeers can finish either second (if they win) or third (if they lose).

Games to Catch

• Xavier at St. Louis – Wednesday 2/24 — The Billikens are challenging for one of the top three seeds at the A10 Tournament and some consideration for the NCAAs. The Musketeers have to win to keep pace with Richmond in the loss column, and keep their fate in their hands.
• Richmond at Xavier – Sunday 2/28 — Should Richmond win, the Spiders take the conference regular season title and the #1 seed in the A10 Tournament and Xavier comes in third. Should Xavier win, the Musketeers will finish second in the conference and take the #2 seed in the A10 Tournament, while the Spiders most likely finish third.
• Charlotte at Rhode Island – Wednesday 3/3 — This is a match between two NCAA bubble teams, in the A10’s in conference version of Bracket Buster Wednesday.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Dayton @ #18 Temple – 6:30 pm on A-10 (****)

All the Dayton fans who thought that the Flyers had locked up a bid when they beat Charlotte by 28 turned out to be sadly mistaken.  After losses to Saint Louis and Duquesne, the Flyers are again on the bubble and probably would be on the outside looking in if they lose tonight at Temple.  Dayton has been an enigma this year having beaten solid teams like Xavier and Charlotte while having some horrendous losses in conference play. They only have two players scoring in double figures, and they also only have two players averaging more than 1.9 assists per game.  Their offense is also ranked just 105^th in efficiency, yet they have shot well over 40 % in each of their last seven games, a stretch in which they went just 4-3.  For the Owls, their main problem is their inconsistency as they are one of the most erratic three-point shooting teams in the country.  Against Richmond, they were just 1/10 followed by a 6/6 performance against Rhode Island then a 2/15 effort against Saint Joe’s.  One of the biggest things the Owls have going for them is that they are playing at home, where they have beaten Villanova, Xavier, and Rhode Island this year.  However, if Dayton shoots close to 50 %, and Temple struggle from the 3, the Flyers might be able to save their at-large status for at least one more game.

#16 Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame – 7:00 pm on ESPN 2 (***)

Pitt may not have the longest winning streak in the country right now, but nobody has been more impressive than the Panthers over the past three weeks.  They have won five straight games, with victories against West Virginia, Marquette, and Villanova in their last three contests.  The Panthers are now just two games out of first place in the Big East, and could be a # 3 seed in the tournament by the time selection Sunday rolls around.  The Irish, on the other hand, are looking at another NIT bid after blowing a golden chance to reach 20 wins before their last stretch of the season against several tough teams.  After losing three close games to mediocre teams in Seton Hall, St. John’s, and Louisville, they are now 10^th in the conference.  Going back to their loss at Rutgers in January, Notre Dame’s last four losses have been by a combined seven points.  Luke Harangody, who may be one of the more under-appreciated players in the country due to his team’s record, will be out for the game and may not come back the rest of the season.  Unless he returns up soon, the Irish have no shot at the tournament.   With Ashton Gibbs playing so well for Pitt (he has scored at least 20 points in three of the last four games) the Panthers look to be unstoppable right now, and should send Notre Dame to a fourth straight loss.

An Early Candidate for National COY

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Last Four In: Dayton, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, UAB

Last Four Out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, San Diego State

Next Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Wichita State, South Florida

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Campbell, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Purdue, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, North Texas, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2).

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Joe Dzuback of Villanova By The Numbers is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic 10 Conference.

Funky February

Maybe it is the weather, one of the more snow-filled winters in the last decade. Maybe it is the point in the season when teams that are good just exhale for a game or two, and teams that were supposed to be good take a hard look in the mirror and realize that something has to happen right now if their season is going to head somewhere other than the waste pile. If the conference is separating the top from the bottom, the top is getting crazy…

Dayton delivered their second consecutive take-down of a conference leader when they hammered the Charlotte 49ers 75-47, on Wednesday (2/10) night. Richmond spared the conference the conundrum of a five-way tie with barely a month left to the conference season when they dispatched Rhode Island (on the Rams’ home court no less), 69-67, earlier in the evening. Thursday dawned with four teams sporting (only) two conference losses, although technically Temple, with only seven wins, was not in a true tie with their three conference mates, Charlotte, Richmond and Xavier. Three more teams, Dayton, Rhode Island and St. Louis are just one loss behind the four leaders. Fully one-half of the conference is within striking distance of the conference title, and St. Louis excepted (maybe…), six appear regularly in postseason bracketology discussions. While it is remote — at best — to think all six will go to the NCAAs, I have begun to believe my projection of three teams was too light. The next two weeks will separate one or two teams from the top of the conference going into the A10’s postseason tournament.

Standings (as of 02/16/10)

1. Richmond (9-2, 20-6 #25 AP)
2. Temple (8-2, 2-05, #21 AP)
3. Xavier (8-2, 17-7)
4. Charlotte (8-2, 18-6)
5. St. Louis (7-3, 16-8)
6. Rhode Island (7-4, 19-5)
7. Dayton (6-4, 17-7)
8. Duquesne (4-7, 13-12)
9. Massachusetts (4-7, 10-15)
10. George Washington (3-7, 13-10)
11. La Salle (3-7, 11-13)
12. St. Bonaventure (3-7, 10-13)
13. Saint Joseph’s (3-8, 9-16)
14. Fordham (0-11, 2-21)

Team Rundowns

Charlotte

The 49ers have had their problems on the road this season, starting with the 101-59 drubbing they took in Cameron Indoor Stadium in their second game. After a nice seven-game winning streak through Christmas, Old Dominion rung their bell with a 30+ point beating. The Tennessee Volunteers booted them out of Knoxville with a 17 point loss and XU showed them the door with a 12-point loss in mid January. The 75-47 drubbing they took at the hands of Dayton on Wednesday (2/10), coming so close to the end of the season, might be the most damaging. The game was played at Dayton’s preferred pace (about 65 possessions), and Charlotte shot an abysmal 27% eFG% as Coach Lutz emptied his bench, running 14 players through the game to find someone who could hit a bucket.

The 49ers have had a week to think about that disaster, and will swing back into action Wednesday (2/17) as they host struggling Duquesne, followed by a Saturday (1/20) visit from Xavier.

Dayton

Dayton took care of Charlotte in resounding fashion, 75-47, on Wednesday (2/10). Having beaten both Xavier and Charlotte during their home stand, the Flyers seemed to have their season back on track. Against Charlotte, Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson stepped up to provide very efficient scoring, logging eFGs of 80% and 69% respectively while taking at least 30% of the shots when they were on the floor. Chris Johnson also had an efficient (if less prolific) night, logging an eFG% of 79% while taking about 18% of the available shots when he was on the floor. Their offense back on track, the Flyers took to the road and dropped their Saturday (2/13) game to St. Louis, 68-65. Small consolation that it took the Billikens two overtime periods to subdue the Flyers. And it is back into the middle of the pack for Dayton. The Flyers continue to lead the conference in efficiency differential (see table above), but that efficiency is not consistently translating into wins. Coach Gregory’s squad may be the unluckiest in the conference, but that will not win them any awards (or get them a postseason NCAA bid). They need victories, the kind that show up in the win column. They are one of the strongest teams in the country in rebounding, but they turn the ball over too much (ranked according to Ken Pomeroy at #219 in D1) and foul too much (ranked #268). Both of those deficiencies will kill a team in a close game.

The Flyers host La Salle Thursday (2/18) then travel to Pittsburgh to play Duquesne on Sunday (2/21). Both are should-wins for Dayton, as are their two remaining home games after this week. If Dayton is to make a run at the top of the conference (and back into the NCAA conversation), they need to take one (or both) of their road games the following week, at Temple (2/24) and Richmond (3/04). Their four good (RPI) wins will carry weight with the Selection Committee, but finishing #7 in the conference (where they currently stand) will only guarantee them a poor drawing in the A10’s Atlantic City tournament.

Duquesne

The Dukes are down to a run in Atlantic City to pull out their season. More realistically, Coach Everhart might want to look to next season and where he will find a replacement for senior Damian Saunders. Duquesne dropped an overtime game, 84-80, to Massachusetts last Thursday (2/11), then trounced a crippled La Salle team, 103-82, on Sunday (2/14). Duquesne’s defense is (according to Ken Pomeroy) comparable to a number of tournament-bound teams. Duquesne’s offense, however, will keep the Dukes out of postseason play. And the most glaring part of their offense is scoring from beyond the arc, where their accuracy (3FG% 26%…no that’s not a typo) has them ranked #347 (dead last) in Division 1. Three of the Dukes’ four most prolific three-point shooters have accuracies of less than 26%. And the fourth (senior Jason Duty) hits at a 33% rate. It might be time to give sophomore BJ Montiero more playing time and exposure to big game situations.

Duquesne ventures into Halton Arena Wednesday (2/17) for a game with Charlotte, then returns home to host Dayton on Sunday (2/21).

Fordham

The Rams dropped a road game, 72-61, to St. Bonaventure last Wednesday (2/10) followed by a 25-point home loss to Massachusetts (78-53) on Saturday (2/13). Ken Pomeroy now pegs the probability for a winless conference season at 76%. While there is a very small probability that Fordham will break their run next week — road games with Richmond Wednesday (2/17) and Rhode Island Saturday (2/20) — an upset would definitely, given Fordham’s #299 RPI, damage either Richmond’s or Rhode Island’s postseason prospects. Better opportunities lie ahead, with games against St. Bonaventure on the 24th and Duquesne on March 6.

George Washington

In a season with more than a few disappointments, getting some recognition for your players, like having Dwayne Smith named Rookie of the Week (cited for scoring a season-high 15 points in 15 minutes of play against Fordham), is one of those pleasures left in the season. They may have a good run in the conference tournament, but short of running the table, a postseason beyond Atlantic City is off the table. Coach Hobbs will lose Damian Hollis, a senior, but should have Lasan Kromah (another freshman who earned Rookie of the Week honors this season) and the next five scorers back next season, and hopefully they will be a year better. The Colonials maintained a better than average defense in conference play. Lack of a consistent offense has been their downfall.

George Washington will host Massachusetts on Wednesday (2/17), and travel to Richmond to close out their mirror series with the Spiders on Saturday (2/20).

La Salle

Another week, another bite out of the rotation. The 2010 season, projected as the season that would see the Explorers return to postseason play (NCAA or NIT) has become instead a Trail of Tears, as senior Yves Mekongo Mbala broke a finger in his shooting hand during practice on 2/8, and had surgery to repair it on 2/12. While the doctors predict a two-to-four week convalescence, anyone with a calendar handy can see that, at best, Mbala might be back for the A10 Tournament, and at worst has effectively ended his career at La Salle. Mekongo Mbala joins fellow seniors Kimmani Barrett and Ruben Guillandeaux on La Salle’s bench. At 3-7 and 11-13 overall, without a huge and unexpected turnaround, La Salle is going home after Atlantic City. The loss of the seniors has been devastating for the Explorers’ prospects this season, but those injuries have forced a few underclassmen to play more active roles this season. That should pay dividends in the seasons to come.

Next up for the Explorers is a trip to Ohio and a game with Dayton on Thursday (2/18) and home to host St. Bonaventure on Sunday (2/21).

Massachusetts

Ricky Harris shared Player of the Week honors for his 29 points in the Minutemen’s 84-80 overtime win over Duquesne. He also had a season-high six assists. UMass took two games last week, the aforementioned overtime win at Duquesne on Wednesday (2/10) and their home win over Saint Joseph’s 70-62, on Sunday (2/14). The Duquesne game broke a three-game losing streak, a recurring pattern for the Minutemen this season — two-to-five losses interrupted by one or two wins. Massachusetts has been able to beat every conference team ranked below them this season. What they do not have is a win against an opponent ranked above them in the conference standings. Their games this week, on Wednesday (2/17) at George Washington and Sunday (2/21) when they host St. Louis should settle the question of whether Coach Kellogg’s squad is turning their season around, or having a Funky February moment.

Rhode Island

The Rams had a terrible week. They went into last Wednesday’s (2/10) game with Richmond (a 69-67 loss) as a third of a cluster of teams just out of first place. They finished the week in sixth place, having dropped a 78-56 road game to Temple, one-half game ahead of seventh place Dayton. The Ram woes come on the defensive side of the basketball, the culprits a combination of shot defense (they are an equal opportunity provider, ranked #279th for two point defense and #296th for three point defense (out of 347 D1 teams) and defensive rebounding (ranked per Ken Pomeroy #303).

Their Wednesday (2/17) game at St. Louis should be interesting test of weakness versus weakness. The Billikens are offensive-challenged (ranked at #232 by Pomeroy) and rely on defense to prevail. St. Louis is an “average” shooting team that does not rebound their misses. The Billikens are 7-3 in the conference standings, so this Rhode Island can help itself immediately with a win. Their weekend game is Sunday (2/21) at Massachusetts.

Richmond

The Spiders leapfrogged Xavier and Charlotte to land in the AP Top 25 in the last slot this past Monday. This marks the first time since 1986 a Spider squad has been recognized by the polls. Coach Mooney’s squad extended their winning streak to six with a tough road win over Rhode Island, 69-67, on Wednesday (2/10) and a 68-49 win over St. Bonaventure on Saturday (2/13). Richmond is clustered with Temple, Xavier and Charlotte with two conference losses, but holds the half-game advantage by virtue of an additional win. Richmond is doing it on both sides of the ball. The Spiders are ranked #4 in conference games for offense, and #3 in confernce games for defense. Bracketologists from Joe Lunardi to RTC’s own Zach Hayes put Richmond in the field of 65 as a #7 seed.

Richmond hits one last breather in their schedule this week, a two-game home stand that includes Fordham on Wednesday (2/17) and George Washington on Saturday (2/20), before they play three fellow contenders (Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte) for an end of the season Trial by Fire.

St. Joseph’s

Coach Martelli’s young squad found no love in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Valentine’s Day. The Hawks dropped a 70-62 decision to the Minutemen. At 3-8 in conference and out of any postseason discussions beyond Atlantic City, the Hawks can still fight for some Big 5 respect. With two City Series games left (versus Temple and La Salle), the Hawks can knot those standings with two wins. After a road trip to Xavier Wednesday (2/17), they play Temple Saturday (2/20).

St. Bonaventure

The Bonnies beat Fordham 72-61, last Wednesday (2/10), but dropped a home game to Richmond 68-49, on Saturday (2/13). The season is not going as many Bonnies fans anticipated. At this point, improving their standings over 2009 (they finished #11) is a practical, if less ambitious goal. They will not get to 8-8 in conference play, but they might find three, possibly four more wins among the six games remaining. The home stretch starts this week as they host Temple Wednesday (2/17), and then travel to Philadelphia to play La Salle squad on Sunday (2/21). Temple is a stretch, but the Explorers are a wounded team right now, lacking three senior leaders.

St. Louis

Coach Majerus’ team personafies Funky February. Their January 30 game with Richmond was a hint of crazy stuff to come. As noted by Ken Pomeroy in his 2/01 blog entry, not only did the Billikens score less than 40 points in the game (no more than 20 in either period), but all of their points came from twos, probably the only D1 game of this type played this season. St. Louis scored no points from either beyond the arc or from the charity stripe. The offensively-challenged Billikens have quietly worked themselves into conference contention with a four-game winning streak that started with the game after their loss to Richmond. February has been perfect so far for St. Louis. They host Rhode Island on Wednesday (2/17) in a game that is significant for both, followed by a Sunday (2/21) road game with Massachusetts. St. Louis is 3-5 in road games this season, their wins coming over Duquesne, La Salle and Saint Joseph’s. They have taken conference road losses against Charlotte, George Washington and Richmond. Where does Massachusetts fit? And more importantly, where does St. Louis fit?

Temple

The Owls won their only game last week against Rhode Island, 78-56. Temple has two road games coming. On Wednesday (2/17) they go to Olean, NY, to play St. Bonaventure, and then across town on Saturday (2/20) to play their Big 5 designated game against Saint Joseph’s.

Xavier

Jason Love shared Player of the Week honors for his 20/10 performance in 22 minutes in Xavier’s 76-64 win over Florida. Florida may not be a tournament team this postseason (Coach Donovan has had a rough three years since winning two consecutive National Championships), but the win, coming on the road, should be, as ESPN’s Bubble Watcher Mark Shlabach noted, “catch the attention of the NCAA selection committee. It also gives them a nice nonconference win to go with four home victories over RPI top-50 opponents.” The Musketeers return to conference play on Wednesday (2/17) by hosting Saint Joseph’s, then travel to Charlotte for an important game with the 49ers on Saturday (2/20).

Games to Catch

• Rhode Island at St. Louis Wednesday 2/17 — A matchup between the #5 and #6 ranked teams. Rhode Island is ranked #3 in conference games for offense, while St. Louis is ranked #2 in conference games for defense. St. Louis has three losses, while Rhode Island has four. The standings will either stratify a bit more, or there will be two clusters at the top of the conference — one with two losses, the other with four.
• Xavier at Charlotte Saturday 2/20 — Another opportunity to sort out the top of the conference as the Musketeers enter Halton Arena to play the 49ers. Both teams are well stocked with guards — DiJuan Harris and Derrio Green will take the measure of Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway, but the game may come down to how well slightly undersized but athletic wing/forwards Shamari Spears and (freshman) Chris Braswell handle Jason Love and Jamel McLean.