Over the long holiday weekend, Syracuse and West Virginia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, leaving only four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kentucky & Purdue — with a shot at the holy grail of a perfect season.  None of the coaches will admit to it on the record, but they all hate losing, and each of them would welcome a chance to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to win every game put in front of them.  There’s only one problem.  It’s collectively called the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten gauntlets schedules. 

As you’re well aware, there have only been two schools in the last two decades who have run the regular season table — UNLV in 1991, and St. Joseph’s in 2004 — and of course the aforementioned Hoosiers a generation ago were the last to go unblemished throughout.  There are many reasons for this, especially given that it’s difficult to win every single game with a growing target on your back, but the primary reason that Tark’s Rebels and Martelli’s Hawks were able to do it when so many other great teams were not was because they played in mid-major conferences (the Big West and Atlantic 10, respectively).  This is not to say that those conferences are cakewalks, because they’re not.  Every league has its share of rivalry games, other good programs and rattlesnake pits disguised as home gyms that make life difficult on favorites.  But what those conferences provide that is often missing among the BCS conferences are the true bottom-feeders that give elite teams such as UNLV/St. Joe’s breaks on a given night.  Have a tough shooting night at Vandy or Baylor?  You’re going home with your first L.  A tough shooting night at Fordham or Long Beach, though?  You’re probably still ok. 

With the clear knowledge in mind that all four of the remaining unbeatens are going to lose a regular season game (or several), let’s take a look at the remaining schedules to pinpoint exactly when and where that might happen.  First, let’s see what Pomeroy has to say.  He provides percentage odds on every future game, and if you extrapolate out over the rest of the year, you can start to pinpoint the true likelihood of when that first loss might occur.

This is a good starting point, as Purdue appears to be the most likely candidate to lose next (@ Wisconsin on Saturday), while Kansas seems to be the most likely team to run the table (10.2% isn’t exactly a lock, though).  The statistical analysis Pomeroy provides only tells part of the story, though, so we’re going to break down each team’s likelihood of its next loss using another analytical tool – our brain. 

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Atlantic 10 – Joe Dzuback of Villanova by the Numbers (READ MORE)

St. Louis’ pair, Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell, along with Xavier’s Jordan Crawford, epitomize the notion of the “Go-to” guy — they combine lots of minutes (well maybe not so much for Mitchell…) with high usage (possessions and shot taking) and efficiency (ORtgs greater than their team). These guys consume a lot of possessions, but they make their teams better in the process.  (…)

Big East – Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit (READ MORE)

Born Ready wasn’t quite born ready, but 11 games into the season, its pretty clear that Stephenson is going to be a player in this league. Stephenson has averaged 12.5 ppg and 2.4 apg, but more than the numbers he has put up, it has been what he hasn’t done that has been most important – this kid is not a distraction. Yes, he does have his outbursts (his reaction at the end of the Gonzaga game and his yapping at Chris Mack in the Xavier game come to mind), but what 19 year old doesn’t? Cincy has struggled a bit early in the season as they haven’t quite lived up to some of the lofty expectations, but none of that has been Lance’s fault. He makes smart plays, he makes unselfish plays, and, most importantly, he simply makes plays.  (…)

Pac-10 – Ryan ZumMallen of LBPostSports (READ MORE)

Boy, that was a rough non-conference season, huh? Everybody and their mom jumped on the Pac-10 for underachieving, and there is certainly some merit to that. The teams that were expected to compete for Top 10 spots sometimes looked like they shouldn’t be ranked at all. As a whole, the conference won very few quality games and for the most part waltzed through laughably easy opponents. Then, of course, there were the downright embarrassing losses that began to pile up one after another.  (…)

Big 12 – Patrick Sellars  (READ MORE)

Derrick Roland. I feel terrible for this kid who broke his leg against Washington ending a season in which the Aggies were probably headed for the NCAA Tournament. Now the Aggies are left without their star player and they’re in trouble of missing the Tournament if they can’t find someone to pick up the slack left by Roland.  (…)

Mountain West – Andrew Murawa  (READ MORE)

Hobson takes home his third NOTW award from this space with his performance against Texas Tech detailed above.  He has been simply amazing at times this year, an incredibly versatile force who can grab a strong rebound at one end of the floor, weave his way up court and either find an open Lobo for an easy finish, complete the play himself with either a gliding finger-roll or a pull-up three or settle back in to run the half court offense.  If you haven’t had a chance to see Hobson yet this season, look him up when you get a chance, as all but one Lobo game the rest of the season will be televised somewhere, mostly on The MTN.  (…)

WAC – Sam Wasson of bleedCrimson.net and Travis Mason-Bushman of Vandal Nation (READ MORE)

The WAC begins conference play this weekend and the league has made a switch to a Saturday/Monday schedule from a Thursday/Saturday schedule in years past.  The breakout non-conference season for the WAC never materialized. The good news is the league finished 73-43 in non-conference play.  The bad news is the league was 0-7 against BCS teams, 7-9 against the West Coast Conference, 5-7 against the Big West and just 4-12 against the Mountain West, the league the WAC most likes to compare itself to due to the fact that MWC is made up of former WAC teams.  (…)

WCC – Michael Vernetti  (READ MORE)

Although several WCC teams have games remaining before conference play begins next Friday (Jan. 8), a few general observations appear to be safe. First, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have erased any doubts about their continued stranglehold on the top two positions. Gonzaga could finish its pre-conference schedule at 11-3 or 10-4 depending on its game on the road against Illinois on Jan. 2, but the Zags have made it perfectly clear they are up to the challenge of competing for a 10^th straight WCC Championship.  (…)

Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.

Power Rankings

1. Texas (12-0) – Last Week the Longhorns beat Michigan State pretty handily. I’m going to side with the Rush the Court Top 25 and say that right now Texas is the best team in the country.
2. Kansas (12-0) – The Jayhawks have a pretty tough three game stretch coming up: at Temple, vs. Cornell, and at Tennessee. If KU takes care of those teams they could reclaim the top spot.
3. Kansas State (12-1) – Jacob Pullen is one of the best guards in the country that isn’t getting nearly enough recognition.
4. Oklahoma State (11-1) – I don’t know if I really believe that the Cowboys are the fourth best team in the conference, but they take this spot by default because all the teams above them lost.
5. Texas A&M (9-3) – The loss to Washington was expected, but the loss of  Derrick Roland to a broken leg was not. Hopefully he can regain his eligibility and come back strong next season.
6. Texas Tech (10-2) – The Red Raiders became the second Big 12 team to lose to New Mexico (Texas A&M also lost to the Lobos) Tuesday night.
7. Missouri (10-3) – The Tigers get a big jump after taking care of Illinois on a neutral court. Kim English is playing very good basketball right now.
8. Baylor (10-1) – I’m still skeptical of the Bears because they really haven’t had any tough competition since Thanksgiving, but they took care of Arkansas easily.
9. Nebraska (10-3) – The Cornhuskers get to move up because of their impressive win over Tulsa.  This team has set themselves up for an NIT bid if they can finish in the top nine in the conference.
10. Iowa State (9-3) – I’m waiting for this team to get hot, because when they do they are going to be an exciting team to watch. They have two huge home games coming up against Houston on 1/3, and Duke on 1/6.
11. Oklahoma (8-4) – I thought this Sooner team was supposed to compete for the conference title.
12. Colorado (8-4) – I like Alec Burks, and I think he can be a very good player in conference play, but I don’t see Colorado ever getting out of the cellar.

Team of the Week: Missouri Tigers – In a quiet week, Missouri beat their interstate rivals Illinois pretty handily. The Big 12 is looking very strong right now, and its teams like the Tigers that are helping make it the best conference in the nation.

Player of the Week: Cole Aldrich (C), Kansas – The reason I’m giving it to Aldrich is because of his rebounding. This past week he had 10 rebounds against California and 14 against Belmont. Aldrich isn’t putting up Player of the Year numbers like some thought he would, but to his credit he has only registered 30 minutes in a game twice this season.

Top Stories

• Derrick Roland. I feel terrible for this kid who broke his leg against Washington ending a season in which the Aggies were probably headed for the NCAA Tournament. Now the Aggies are left without their star player and they’re in trouble of missing the Tournament if they can’t find someone to pick up the slack left by Roland.
• New Top Team. Texas overtook Kansas for the top spot in the Big 12 Power Rankings. Right now the Longhorns are playing like a national championship caliber team. Their frontcourt is the best in the nation, and their young guards are slowly getting better. Avery Bradley is key to this teams hopes of winning a national championship.

This Week’s Predictions (* indicates “Game to Watch”, # indicates “Upset Watch”)

• Texas – vs. TX-AM CC 1/2 (W), at Arkansas 1/5 (W) – The Longhorns are probably remembering their loss to Arkansas last season, and they don’t want that to happen again.
• Kansas – at Temple 1/2 (W)*, vs. Cornell 1/6 (W) – These are two tough games that the Jayhawks really want to win. You can’t sleep on either of these teams, especially Temple, who beat Tennessee at home last season.
• Kansas State – vs South Dakota 1/3 (W) – Kansas State will get one more cupcake before conference play begins on January 9^th.
• Oklahoma State – at Rhode Island 1/2 (L) #, vs. Coppin State 1/5 (W) – Rhode Island is 10-1, and I think they will be too much for James Anderson and the Cowboys.
• Texas A&M – vs. Northwestern State 1/2 (W), vs North Dakota 1/5 (W) – The Aggies will get to play some easy games in order to adjust to life without Derrick Roland.
• Texas Tech – vs UTEP 1/3 (L) # – The Miners now have Derrick Caracter, and I think that makes them too much of a match for the Red Raiders.
• Missouri – vs. UMKC 12/30 (W), vs. Georgia 1/2 (W), vs. Savannah State 1/6 (W) – The Tigers need to beat Georgia if they want to keep their NCAA hopes alive, barring a tremendous Big 12 finish.
• Baylor – at Arkansas 12/30 (L), at South Carolina 1/2 (L), vs Morgan State (W) – I don’t believe that Baylor will be a good team in conference play, and I think they’ll prove it this week when they lose to two mediocre SEC teams on the road.
• Nebraska – vs. Maryland Eastern Shore 1/2 (W), vs. Southeastern Lousiana 1/5 (W) – Two cupcake opponents should give the Cornhuskers a respectable record going into conference play.
• Iowa State – vs. Houston 1/3 (W), vs. Duke 1/6 (L)* – I could see the Cyclones putting up a good fight against the Blue Devils, but ultimately Duke has too much talent for this Iowa State team.
• Oklahoma – at Gonzaga 12/22 (L)*, vs Maryland-Eastern Shore ¼ (W)- The Sooners could make a statement against Gonzaga if they pull off a win, but they probably won’t.
• Colorado – at Tulsa 1/2 (L), vs Miami (OH) 1/5 (W) – Tulsa will prove to be too much on the inside for Colorado to handle.

Here’s this week’s Top 25, and you might be surprised as a new #1 takes over even though the top six all won last week.  Analysis after the jump…

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Here are today’s excerpts from the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC… enjoy!

Big Ten – Jason Prziborowski  (READ MORE)

Northwestern is the best basketball nerd school in the nation. Two great things about last weekend’s Stanford game for the Wildcats. First, they beat probably the only school that can compete with them on the hardwood and in the classroom. The second is that John Shurna is back. He had a 22/8 game against Stanford, so I hope I don’t jinx him. Stanford actually shot better from the field and from 3-pt territory, but the Wildcats dominated from the free throw line. Northwestern is going to have to find a bench though, as five points from the reserves isn’t going to cut it in the Big Ten.  (…)

Big 12 – Patrick Sellars  (READ MORE)

Missouri to the Big Ten? – PTI was talking about the potential move last week, and apparently Missouri wants to join the other midwestern BCS conference. The move makes sense geographically, and the Big Ten has been looking for a twelfth member for a few years. The likely scenario is that Missouri would move to the Big Ten,  and then the Big 12 would pick up TCU to compensate. Obviously this is all speculation, but it would be quite interesting if the move went through.  (…)

SEC – Paul Jordan of  Wildcat Blue Blog (READ MORE)

Kentucky set a new standard in college basketball as they became the first program to win 2,000 wins in an 88-44 romp over Drexel.  John Calipari is more than exceeding expectations with a 12-0 record and a #3 ranking in both polls.  UK appears to be gelling right now and are clearly setting the standard in the SEC. Unfortunately, the UK game was about the only highlight in the SEC this week as both Florida and Tennessee suffered head scratching losses.  The two Mississippi schools are starting to rise and play very well and the SEC is turning into a five or six team race.  (…)

Power Rankings

1. Kansas (10-0) – The Jayhawks hold the top spot because they played a bad game against Michigan but still won by double digits.  This team is going to be scary once they start playing their best basketball.
2. Texas (10-0) – The Longhorns are very close to grabbing the number one spot away from Kansas. A win over Michigan State tonight will probably push them to the top.
3. Kansas State (11-1) – It looks like KSU will end their non-conference season at 13-1 if they can take care of Cleveland State and South Dakota. Frank Martin and the Wildcats could be looking at a possible top three seed in the NCAA tournament if they finish third in the conference.
4. Texas A&M (9-2) – The Aggies have a huge game against Washington tonight. This could be a big statement game for TAMU, which has fallen outside the Coaches Poll Top 25.
5. Oklahoma State (10-1) – The Cowboys had a very close call with Stanford, and then took care of La Salle last week. This is probably the hardest team to rank right now because their non-conference schedule is not very tough.
6. Texas Tech (9-1) – Losing to the Wichita State Shockers on the road is not necessarily a bad loss, but it makes it harder for the Red Raiders to make the NCAA tournament if they don’t finish in the top six of the conference.
7. Baylor (9-1) – The Bears are on a long break, but when they resume play against a pair of SEC opponents (Arkansas and South Carolina) is when we’ll really know if Baylor is for real.
8. Iowa State (8-3) – Marquis Gilstrap had a huge game against Bradley, scoring 25 points. If he can elevate his play during the conference season then the Cyclones could surprise a lot of people this year.
9. Missouri (7-3) – Last week’s good news is that Mizzou didn’t let Arkansas-Pine Bluff register their first win of the season. The Tigers will have to prove their worth Wednesday in St. Louis when they face Illinois.
10. Oklahoma (8-4) – I was starting to believe that the Sooners had turned it around, but then they laid a huge egg at home against UTEP. The problem with OU right now is their depth. For instance, in their loss last night, Jeff Capel got just two points from his bench players.
11. Nebraska (8-2) – The Cornhuskers play Tulsa on a neutral court, and I really don’t see NU coming out with a victory in this game. The good news for Big Red is that they get a lot of production from a lot of different players; their leading scorer Ryan Anderson is averaging just 11 PPG.
12. Colorado (6-4) – It looks like it will be another long year in Boulder. Cory Higgins is an NBA prospect, but that’s about the only good thing to say about this team.

Team of the Week: Texas Longhorns – Defeating North Carolina at Cowboys Stadium was a tremendous accomplishment for Rick Barnes and the Longhorns. Dexter Pittman snagged twelve Offensive boards in the victory, which may be the most impressive stat for the whole game.

Player of the Week – Damion James (F), Texas- James scored 25 points and grabbed 15 rebounds in the weekend win over UNC. He is now averaging a double-double. One thing he does need to work on his is FG percentage, as he was just 8-22 from the field against the Tar Heels.

Top Stories

• Missouri to the Big Ten? – PTI was talking about the potential move last week, and apparently Missouri wants to join the other midwestern BCS conference. The move makes sense geographically, and the Big Ten has been looking for a twelfth member for a few years. The likely scenario is that Missouri would move to the Big Ten,  and then the Big 12 would pick up TCU to compensate. Obviously this is all speculation, but it would be quite interesting if the move went through.
• Texas’ Big Day – Dexter Pittman and Damion James both had a tremendous day against UNC, which helped the Longhorns put up triple digits on one of the nation’s best teams. I think UT answered a lot of questions about how good their team is, and I think the Horns showed that they are a final four caliber team.

This Week’s Predictions (* indicates “Game to Watch”, # indicates “Upset Watch”)

• Kansas – California 12/22 (W)* – This is not an easy matchup for Kansas because the Golden Bears can get hot and put up a lot of points in a hurry. However, the game is in Lawrence, and that’s spells a win for the Jayhawks.
• Texas – Michigan State 12/22 (W)* – Another big test for the Longhorns, but if they play as well as they did against North Carolina, they should be able to take the Spartans. I think this one will be closer than the UNC game, but in the end Texas’ frontcourt will prove to be too much for the smaller, more perimeter-oriented Michigan State team.
• Kansas State is on an off week.
• Texas A&M – at Washington 12/22 (L)* – The Huskies want revenge against this conference after their loss to Texas Tech. I think A&M has enough talent to upset Washington on the road, but Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas will prove to be too much for the Aggies.
• Texas Tech – Stanford 12/22 (W) – Oklahoma State took care of Stanford, even though they almost faltered at the end of the game. I think Texas Tech plays better “team basketball” than OSU, and they will overpower Stanford.
• Oklahoma State is on an off week.
• Baylor is on an off week.
• Iowa State – North Dakota 12/22 (W) – This will be an easy win for the Cyclones, before they take a long break until their January 3^rd contest against Houston.
• Missouri – vs. Illinois 12/23 (L)*,  Austin Peay 12/27 (W) – I don’t see Mizzou beating the Illini in St. Louis. It is a big game for both teams that need another win over a power conference team, but I just think that Illinois has a more talented roster and will beat MU pretty easily.
• Nebraska – vs. Tulsa 12/22 (L) – Jerome Jordan was too much for Oklahoma State, and I think he will also dominate this game against the Cornhuskers. Tulsa is a possible top nine seed in the NCAA tournament, and Nebraska is a possible NIT team.
• Colorado – Cal State Northridge 12/22 (W) – Cory Higgins and the Buffaloes need to get some momentum before they start the conference season.

The news that the Big Ten was looking to expand from 11 teams (yeah I know 11 > 10) to 12 teams (yeah I know there is already a Big 12) set the college sports world abuzz with speculation about who the 12th team would be. And that set off a chain reaction of questions about who would fill in the spot in the conference that the Big Ten’s 12th member would leave vacant and so on. We will leave the latter for another post if and when the Big Ten finally commits to expansion and selects a school. Right now the schools I have heard mentioned most often are Cincinnati, Connecticut, Iowa State, Louisville, Missouri, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Texas, and West Virginia. I’ll go ahead and make this simple for everybody. Despite what Mike DeCourcy says Texas is not going to the Big Ten. The prospect of Texas leaving the Big 12 is too disastrous for the Big 12 officials to let happen. He can argue about TV revenues and how Texas is a much bigger TV draw than any of its Big 12 competitors, but he is missing a key element here. Unfortunately for Mike, geography destroys his grand scheme of having the Longhorns leave the Big 12 for the Big Ten. As the graphic clearly illustrates, Austin, Texas, is very far away from the members of the Big Ten. In fact the closest school would be Illinois, which is just a short 1,004 mile trip away from Austin (or 3 Mike DeCourcy Sporting News glamour shots).

While I understand a college team expects to have its fans outnumbered in road games, I can’t imagine that they would want to have a scenario where none of their students could go to a road game and none of the opposing team’s fans could watch games in Austin. So in my mind that pretty clearly eliminates Texas from consideration in the Big Ten. You can use this same argument when Mike suggests that UCLA join the Big East after the Big Ten poaches one of their programs for this round of expansion.

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Here are Wednesday’s Check-ins excerpted in case you missed them listed above.

Atlantic 10 – Joe Dzuback (MORE HERE)

Common Opponent Analysis: Providence.  Both Rhode Island and George Washington hosted the Providence Friars within a 4 day period. How did the Rams and Colonials match up against a common opponent under similar circumstances? Rhode Island won a 3-point decision (86-83), while George Washington lost by a whopping 27 points (110-83). As the table shows, both teams played about 78 possessions (lower than they usually play — Pomeroy shows about 80 possessions per game), and have work to do on their respective defenses. And both teams are close on offense, garnering over 1.0 points per possession while converting their own field goal attempts in the low-mid 40s (eFG% — 44.0% for the Rams and 43.2% for the Colonials). Providence, a perimeter-oriented team under Coach Keno Davis, allowed both A10 opponents to rebound a high percentage of their own misses (47.1% and 51.1% to URI and GWU respectively), but The Rams’ frontcourt experience showed in their defensive rebounding numbers, holding the Friars to less than 30% of their misses (29.7%), even as GWU yielded 34% of the defensive rebounds, more typical of D1 basketball teams. The Friars took over twice as many 3s against George Washington as they did against Rhode Island, suggesting the Rams did a better job of defending the perimeter than the Colonials. Providence converted their 3s at a 55.2% clip, largely the reason for the Colonials’ disappointing 64.6% eFG% on defense. The Rams forced turnovers, somewhat unexpected against a perimeter-oriented team like PC, while the Colonials put the Friars on the line about once for every two field goal attempts, again unusual for a perimeter-oriented team. Conclusion: Rhode Island looks like they may be close to ready for conference play, while George Washington may need more work.  (…)

Big 12 – Patrick Sellars (MORE HERE)

Last weekend’s Villanova loss created the only substantive movement in the RTC Top 25 this week, but we weren’t rating the Wildcats as high as everyone else anyway, so the market on Jay Wright’s team appears to have been corrected.  Analysis after the jump…

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Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.

Power Rankings:

1. Kansas (7-0) – The Jayhawks have yet to play a tough opponent, and they didn’t play too well against a bad UCLA team. However, to KU’s credit, they’re going to get everybody’s best shot all season long.
2. Texas (7-0) – The Horns fans are probably more excited about their football team at the moment, but the town of Austin could see another national championship appearance, this time on the hardcourt.
3. Texas A&M (8-1) – Not a very impressive week for the Aggies who struggled at home in their wins against Akron (74-62) and North Texas (75-65).
4. Texas Tech (8-0) – This team has earned my respect after their crazy win over Washington at home. If Pat Knight gets to the Tournament he is looking at Big 12 coach of the year honors for what he’s doing in Lubbock.
5. Kansas State (7-1) – The Wildcats are about to get into the toughest part of their nonconference schedule. This week they play at home against Xavier (Tuesday 12/8) and on the road against Mountain West favorite UNLV (Saturday 12/12).
6. Missouri (5-2) – I think Mizzou answered a lot of questions about their offense with the 106-69 whipping of Oregon in Columbia.
7. Oklahoma (5-3) – It looks like the Sooners are back on track with big wins over Arkansas (67-47) and Arizona (79-62).
8. Oklahoma State (7-1) – If you recall, I called the upset against Tulsa, if we really call it an upset. The Cowboys then had a close call at home against UT-San Antonio (61-55)
9. Baylor (7-1) – The win over Arizona State was a good sign for the Bears, but with the Pac-10 having a down year it’s hard to know what we should make of it.
10. Iowa State (6-3) – Really tough week for the Cyclones losing to MVC favorite Northern Iowa (63-60) and then getting dumped by Cal on the road (82-63).
11. Colorado (6-3) – Good news for the Buffaloes is that freshman Alec Burks is off to a terrific start (16 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
12. Nebraska (5-2) – Lost on the road to a better Creighton team. Not much is looking good in Lincoln right now other than Ndamukong Suh, and I don’t think he’s going to try out for the basketball team any time soon.

Team of the Week: Texas Tech Red Raiders – The title of “craziest game” of this young season belongs to the Washington-TTU showdown in Lubbock last Thursday, and I think its safe to say that Red Raiders fans are surprised with what their team has been able to do so far this season.

Player of the Week: Damion James (F), Texas – James combined for 35 points and 15 rebounds in Texas’ two games last week. Right now, he is the key to the Longhorns’ success.

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