RTC Top 25: Week 16
Posted by zhayes9 on February 22nd, 2010It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll. The usual analysis after the jump…
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It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll. The usual analysis after the jump…
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.
Last Four In: Dayton, Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, UAB
Last Four Out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Next Four Out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Wichita State, South Florida
Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Campbell, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Purdue, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, North Texas, Gonzaga, Utah State.
Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big East (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2).
The Harvard students changed from white shirts to black shirts at halftime.
Too bad for the Crimson faithful the ploy didn’t transfer to the hardwood.
Cornell maintained a nine-point halftime lead into a nine-point road victory at a raucous Lavietes Pavilion Friday night to hold a lead atop the all-important Ivy League regular season standings and firmly re-establish their status as the top team in the conference. Despite a remarkable 32 of 34 from the line and 48% shooting from the Crimson, Cornell used trademark three-point shooting, strong rebounding and timely scoring from Ryan Wittman and Louis Dale to eek out a victory in quite possibly the most challenging game on their Ivy slate.
The matchup was billed as a duel between the two best players in the conference- Wittman and Harvard’s point man Jeremy Lin. Lin was his usual stellar self- 24 points, 7-12 FG and 10-11 FT- but it was Wittman who stole the show with an array of clutch NBA-distance treys that stymied multiple Crimson rallies. The most importance sequence of the game came near the midway point of the second half when Harvard cut a 17-point Cornell lead to five until Wittman and Dale answered the call one more time with consecutive dagger threes that killed any remaining Harvard hope.
Cornell coach Steve Donahue remarked after the game how terrific the atmosphere was in Cambridge tonight. One could sense the urgency in the air from both sides with the Ivy League not fielding a year-end conference tournament to decide the league’s auto berth. This puts a giant magnifying glass on the regular season results and the players, coaches, fans and students all realized tonight just how crucial of a contest this happened to be.
Donahue made sure to commend a young Harvard team on their effort. Lin is their leader and anchor, but the Crimson rely on three freshman- Kyle Casey, Christian Webster and Brandyn Curry– for a good chunk of their production. Donahue correctly pointed out how vital Cornell’s experience was tonight in terms of both poise and confidence. He singled out Wittman as someone that played with a toughness and confidence unmatched by any other player on the floor for both sides.
Wittman admitted after the game there was a “lack of urgency” before the stunning upset at Penn last Friday. He said the Big Red absolutely has to bring it every night in the Ivy League and Dale remarked that it feels good to get an opposing team’s best shot every time during league play, similar to Gonzaga in the WCC or Butler in the Horizon. Dale also singled out the importance of getting out to a lead so fighting back on the road was not a necessity.
On the losing end, Harvard coach Tommy Amaker was proud of his team for their commendable effort but the Crimson just could not contain Wittman and Dale to pick up the stops in clutch situations. He was straight to the point in his assessment: Cornell just did things better. Lin also made sure to say this was the best atmosphere he’s seen at a home game in his four years as a member of the Crimson.
Too bad the home team could not deliver for the white-then-black-clad fans screeching, whistling, blowing horns and stomping their feet for 40 solid minutes Friday night. Then again, this was Cornell. They are on a mission to reach the NCAA Tournament as the class of this league. And it does not appear anyone will stop them from achieving that very goal, at least on this night.
– Zach Hayes
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a Friday seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday. Enjoy our first edition:
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue
#2 Seeds: Villanova, Duke, Kansas State, West Virginia
#3 Seeds: Michigan State, Georgetown, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
#4 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Wisconsin, BYU
#5 Seeds: Temple, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Texas A&M
#6 Seeds: Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Butler
#7 Seeds: Northern Iowa, Richmond, Xavier, UNLV
#8 Seeds: Maryland, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
#9 Seeds: Florida State, Old Dominion, Illinois, Dayton
#10 Seeds: Clemson, California, Siena, Louisville
#11 Seeds: UTEP, Rhode Island, UAB, Oklahoma State
#12 Seeds: Marquette, Utah State, Cornell, Florida
#13 Seeds: Charlotte, Northeastern, Kent State, Murray State
#14 Seeds: Oakland, Sam Houston State, Weber State, Charleston
#15 Seeds: Morgan State, North Texas, Belmont, UC-Santa Barbara
#16 Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Robert Morris, Stony Brook, Lehigh, Jackson State
Last Four In: Charlotte, Florida, Marquette, Oklahoma State
Last Four Out: Saint Mary’s, South Florida, Mississippi State, San Diego State
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Mississippi, Connecticut, William & Mary
Bids per conference: ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Atlantic 10 (6), SEC (4), Big 10 (5), MWC (3), Conference USA (2), CAA (2).
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
Another week gone by in college basketball, another snapshot of the bubble picture provided…
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple
Xavier (21 RPI, 19 SOS)- The Musketeers are bordering on lock status after their enormous bubble win at Florida last Saturday. The only factor preventing such an accolade is the lack of quality non-conference wins. They played Baylor, Butler and Wake Forest extremely tight, yet could only come out on the winning end against Cincinnati and the aforementioned Florida game. Xavier has beaten Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island at home. Win at Charlotte on Saturday and the Musketeers should be in. Current seed range: 6-8.
Rhode Island (22 RPI, 37 SOS)– URI could be the highest-RPI team left out of the bracket if they don’t start picking up quality wins to boost their resume. Winning one of their two nail-biter home defeats at the hands of Temple and Richmond would have been enormous for their NCAA hopes. Fortunately, they only face two threatening games the rest of the way- at St. Louis Wednesday night and vs. Charlotte on March 3. There’s a very realistic chance the Rams could win out and receive a bid, but they won’t have another chance against an RPI top-25 opponent until the A-10 tournament. Current seed range: 10-11.
Richmond (27 RPI, 49 SOS)– Other than Temple, the Spiders have the most impressive portfolio of any Atlantic 10 team. They picked up neutral court wins over bubble teams Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida in non-conference play and are currently riding a six-game winning streak in A-10 play with wins over Temple and at Rhode Island mixed in. They’re 4-2 vs. the RPI top 50 and currently lead the conference with a 9-2 record. Win just one of their last three- at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte- and the Spiders will be dancing. Current seed range: 7-8.
Dayton (34 RPI, 33 SOS)– The Flyers put themselves back into a precarious position by falling in heartbreak fashion at St. Louis on Saturday. They’re just 1-5 vs. RPI top 25 opponents but do have two solid wins in non-conference play over Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton still must travel to Temple and Richmond on their A-10 slate; split those two games and they’re in decent position, lose both and the Flyers could be 1-7 vs. RPI top 25 teams and squarely on the bubble at 21-9 (10-6). Current seed range: 11-12.
Charlotte (41 RPI, 117 SOS)– All in all, the 49ers are in a solid position for a bid. The win at Louisville looks stronger now that the Cardinals are in the field, plus Charlotte knocked off Temple at home and Richmond on the road during conference play. They welcome Xavier and Richmond to Charlotte and also must travel to Rhode Island in three of their last six games. Finish 4-2 in that stretch and it’s going to be awfully hard to deny a bid to a 12-4 Atlantic 10 squad. Current seed range: 10-11.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech (29 RPI, 14 SOS)– With road games remaining at Maryland and at Clemson, it’s likely the Yellow Jackets finish ACC play at a pedestrian 8-8 record. Still, it’s going to be hard to put them on the bubble with five wins over the RPI top 50 (possibly six if Virginia Tech jumps into that category and they beat the Hokies at home on March 6) including victories over Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson. Just stealing one of those road contests would make it a near certainty Paul Hewitt is back dancing. Current seed: 8-9.
Clemson (32 RPI, 31 SOS)– I wouldn’t feel at ease if I’m a Clemson fan. The Tigers may have stellar computer numbers, but their best win out of the ACC was Butler in November and their best in-conference victory came over Maryland at home. Couple that with a brutal stretch in their last four games- at Maryland, at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest- and their reputation for fading down the stretch, and it could be a more nervous Selection Sunday than anticipated. The Georgia Tech home game is of great importance. Would a 20-10 (8-8) record push the Tigers into the Dance? Most likely, yes. Current seed range: 9-10.
Maryland (42 RPI, 28 SOS)– The Terrapins still don’t boast an RPI top-25 win and their best win in non-conference play was at Indiana, but Maryland still stands at about the 8/9 seed range due to their impressive 7-3 ACC mark and a sweep of Florida State. The Terps still have to face likely-NCAA teams Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke and Virginia Tech the rest of the way, but only the meeting with the Hokies is away from College Park. With trips to NC State and Virginia also sprinkled in, no game is a definite win. They need to keep picking up victories in conference play to mask an underwhelming portfolio overall. Current seed range: 8-9.
Florida State (43 RPI, 53 SOS)– FSU probably has the easiest slate of any ACC bubble-in team. The three road games remaining feature a grand total of zero teams with hopes of making the NCAA Tournament in Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Florida State also welcomes Clemson and Wake Forest to Tallahassee. Go 3-2 at the very least during that stretch and the Seminoles should be set for a bid. Leonard Hamilton’s team picked up a non-conference win over Marquette, swept Georgia Tech and beat Virginia Tech this season. Current seed range: 8-10.
Virginia Tech (44 RPI, 180 SOS)- Virginia Tech picked up their first win over an RPI-top 25 opponent last night in their comeback victory over Wake Forest. It’s impossible to overstate how gigantic pulling out that win was- fall to Wake at home and they’re likely back on the wrong side of the bubble at fourth in the ACC with a low-100’s SOS and their best non-conference win over Seton Hall. Now the Hokies are edging themselves further into the field at 21-4 (8-3). All they have to do is take care of their three winnable games at Boston College and home vs. Maryland and NC State and they should be fine at 24-6 (11-5). Current seed range: 9-10.
RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.
I like to mix it up here on Tuesday’s with my Scribbles column. Rather than the usual listing of ten players/coaches/programs catching my eye, I’m going to give this column a bit of a twist. My ten this week will attempt to rank the top ten conferences in America and highlight an underappreciated player residing in that conference. Sure, labeling someone as underrated can be completely subjective, but that’s the joy of having my own weekly column. And team success is not a factor, here; in fact, that’s what makes these players underrated on an individual basis. Let’s get right to it:
1. Big 12: Donald Sloan, Texas A&M– Most thought Derrick Roland’s crippling knee injury would devastate the Aggies both on and off the court enough to destroy their NCAA chances. Instead, Donald Sloan tossed on his Superman cape and carried the load in the absence of his best friend. The run began for A&M with a stunning road victory at a place where nobody wins- Missouri- coupled with a sweep of Texas Tech and a home win over fellow NCAA team Baylor sandwiched in the middle. Sure he struggled in the second half in A&M’s valiant effort vs. Kansas, but just ask head coach Mark Turgeon if Sloan has been the senior leader, the backbone, the constant force behind the A&M attack. Sloan has scored in double figures in every Big 12 game save a loss at Kansas State and even poured in three performances of 26+ points. His 18.2 PPG is good for third in the Big 12 and Sloan is shooting a cool 46% from the field, 78% from the line and 37% from three. The 6’3 senior ranks in the top-75 in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, meaning if a defender respects Sloan’s reliable mid-range shot, he can penetrate and get to the charity stripe as good as any offensive player in the Big 12. Cole Aldrich, James Anderson and Jacob Pullen may get more publicity, but Sloan is just as vital to his team on the offensive end of the floor.
2. Big East: Jamine Peterson, Providence– This high-flying Friar might be the most athletic player in the Big East outside of Stanley Robinson. I witnessed his athleticism first-hand during the late stages of a win at Northeastern early this season when, inbounding under their basket, Peterson leaped over two Huskies on an alley-oop dunk that iced the game for the Friars. His skill set is incredibly rare: a 6’6 redshirt sophomore that can score with ferocity in the paint, step out and drain a three (40 made on the year) and absolutely dominate the glass. Peterson and the rest of his Friar teammates do have a propensity to turn the ball over with extreme frequency, but Jamine more than makes up for it with his 18.9 PPG. His rebounding ranks even a notch higher as Peterson is just 0.1 RPG from averaging a double-double, ranks in the top-50 in offensive rebounding percentage and has two games this season with 20+ rebounds, including an otherworldly 29/20 effort vs. Rutgers in January. A suspect overall floor game and woeful free throw shooting percentage are the only facets of Peterson’s game hindering his quest towards becoming a top-flight Big East player. With two years left at the Dunk (appropriately named), I’d be willing to bet Peterson receives more and more love from the national media as he averages 20/10 and the Friars improve under Keno Davis.
It’s a new week and we’re back with a new Top 25 poll. The usual analysis after the jump…
Note that this week Rob Dauster of BiaH is filling in for one or usual pollsters.
Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist. He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.
Last Four In: Dayton, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Louisville
Last Four Out: Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Mississippi State
Next Four Out: Florida, Memphis, South Florida, Texas Tech
Multiple bids per conference: Big East (7), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Atlantic 10 (6), Big Ten (5), SEC (4), Mountain West (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2).
Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Richmond, Duke, Belmont, Kansas, Villanova, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Michigan State, UC-Santa Barbara, Northeastern, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Robert Morris, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Arkansas State, Gonzaga, Utah State
As the season winds closer to a conclusion and Selection Sunday approaches, a bracket snapshot each Monday just doesn’t quite seem adequate. From now until the end of the year, we’ll be providing a mid-week seed update that outlines where each team inside and just outside the field of 65 currently stands along with reasoning why certain teams changed seed number since the previous Monday. Enjoy our first edition:
(Note: each of the four teams in one seed grouping is listed in pecking order in terms of who is closer to moving up a seed line. This is used to determine game location and matchups similar to Joe Lunardi’s S-Curve listing).
Automatic bids listed in italics.
#1 seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova, Kentucky
#2 seeds: Georgetown, Duke, Purdue, West Virginia
#3 seeds: Kansas State, Michigan State, New Mexico, Wisconsin
#4 seeds: Texas, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Ohio State
#5 seeds: BYU, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Tennessee
#6 seeds: Northern Iowa, Temple, Butler, Texas A&M
#7 seeds: UNLV, Baylor, Richmond, Georgia Tech
#8 seeds: Missouri, Xavier, Rhode Island, Maryland
#9 seeds: Florida State, Cornell, UAB, Dayton
#10 seeds: Charlotte, Clemson, Saint Mary’s, Illinois
#11 seeds: Mississippi, California, Siena, Oklahoma State
#12 seeds: Florida, Virginia Tech, Old Dominion, UTEP
#13 seeds: Northeastern, New Mexico State, Kent State, Oakland
#14 seeds: Murray State, Charleston, Weber State, Sam Houston State
#15 seeds: Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, UC-Santa Barbara, Morgan State
#16 seeds: Robert Morris, Lipscomb, Navy, Stony Brook, Jackson State
More analysis after the jump…
RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…
Atlantic 10
(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).
Locks: Temple.
Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.
Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)– Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.
Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)– The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.
Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)– The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.
ACC
Locks: Duke.
Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)– Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.
Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.
Florida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)– After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.
Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)– At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.
Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)– A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.
Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)– Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.