Checking in on… the WAC

Posted by rtmsf on January 22nd, 2010

Sam Wasson of bleedCrimson.net and Travis Mason-Bushman of Vandal Nation are the RTC correspondents for the Western Athletic Conference.

Current Standings

1.  Louisiana Tech, 17-3 (5-1)
1.  New Mexico State, 12-7 (5-1)
3.  Nevada 12-7 (4-2)
3.  Utah State, 14-6 (4-2)
5.  San Jose State 10-8 (3-3)
5.  Fresno State, 10-10 (3-3)
7.  Hawai’i, 9-10 (2-4)
8.  Idaho 8-8 (1-4)
9.  Boise State, 9-11 (0-7)

The cream is starting to rise to the top as Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State lead the league at 5-1 but preseason pick Utah State is tied with perennial WAC power Nevada for third place at 4-2.  The battle for the middle of the league is being waged between a better-than-their-record-indicates San Jose State squad along with a slumping Fresno State and a beaten-up Hawai’i squad.  The battle for the WAC basement resides in the state of Idaho where the Broncos of Boise State are off to their worst league start ever and Idaho is off to a surprising 1-4 start.

Boise State (9-11, 0-7)

The week’s results:
01/16 L @ Utah State, 81-59
01/20 L vs. Nevada, 88-82

Upcoming games:
01/25 @ Idaho

Things did not get any better for the Broncos in the past week as they extended their losing streak to seven games after being blown out by Utah State and dropping a tight contest at home to Nevada.  The Broncos are now off to their worst start in league play ever and it’s their longest losing streak since the 2001-02 season.  Despite their seven-game losing streak, the Broncos are not out of contention just yet for a spot in the conference tournament.  Their in-state brethren, the Idaho Vandals, have won just one league game and with a game against Utah State before round one of the in-state showdown, it is conceivable that the Broncos could tie things up at the bottom with a win next week over Idaho.

Fresno State (10-10, 3-3)

The week’s results:
01/16 L @ New Mexico State, 86-77
01/21 vs. Utah State, 69-43

Upcoming games:
01/23 vs. Nevada
01/28 @ Idaho

The Bulldogs have lost three straight after starting league play 3-0.  Their latest setback was a thrashing at the hands of Utah State.  The Bulldogs’ bigger concern is the health of their leading scorer Paul George who sprained an ankle early in the loss and did not return.  His return to the court is up in the air and with a tough game against Nevada coming up, a hot start to the season is threatening to give way to a midseason slide.

Hawaii (9-10, 2-4)

The week’s results:
01/18 W vs San Jose State, 68-67
01/21 L vs. New Mexico State, 71-69

Upcoming games:
01/24 vs Louisiana Tech
01/28 @ San Jose State

The Warriors were involved in a pair of down-to-the-wire thrillers as they hosted San Jose State and New Mexico State.  They were on the winning side of one and the losing side of on, edging out San Jose State on a pair of free throws with 2.1 seconds remaining but then falling victim to a last second jumper from New Mexico State’s Jahmar Young.  The Warriors host their second league leading team when the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs come to town on January 24, and follow that up with a rematch against San Jose State.  A split of the two games would keep the Warriors in the middle of the WAC pack.

Idaho (8-8, 1-4)

The week’s results:
01/16 L @ Nevada, 76-68

Upcoming games:
01/23 vs. Utah State
01/25 vs. Boise State
01/28 vs. Fresno State

The Vandals are on a three-game losing streak after falling to Nevada on the road last week.  Idaho has a crucial three-game home stand starting with red-hot Utah State, then in-state rival Boise State in a game that could determine which of the two teams stays out of the WAC basement for the remainder of the season and ending with a game against a potentially Paul George-less Fresno State.  Idaho can put itself right back in the league race with a sweep of the home stand or, if they lose all three games, they could find themselves in the WAC basement.

Louisiana Tech (17-2, 5-0)

The week’s results:
01/21 L @ San Jose State, 87-76

Upcoming games:
01/24 @ Hawai’i

The Bulldogs’ winning streak came to an end in San Jose as the Spartans knocked off the league leader 87-76.   The loss snapped a 10-game win streak.  Kyle Gibson led the Bulldogs with 22 points but it was not enough to offset his career night by SJSU’s Adrian Oliver who scored 39 points.  The Bulldogs will look to get back on the winning track when they face Hawai’i.

Nevada (10-7, 2-2)

The week’s results:
01/16 W vs. Idaho, 76-68
01/20 @ Boise State, 88-82

Upcoming games:
01/23 @ Fresno State

The Wolf Pack beat the two Idaho schools, one at home and the other on the road to bounce back from their overtime loss to Utah State on national television.  The Wolf Pack improved to 4-2 and sit just a half game behind New Mexico State in the loss column.

New Mexico State (10-7, 3-1)

The week’s results:
01/16 W vs. Fresno State, 86-77
01/21 W @ Hawai’i, 71-69

Upcoming games:
01/23 @ San Jose State

New Mexico State is on a roll having won four in a row following a disappointing loss to Nevada back on January 4.  The Aggies have posted back-to-back comeback wins against Fresno State and Hawai’i.  Jahmar Young buried a last second 18-foot jumper with 0.9 seconds left on the clock to give the Aggies a win at Hawai’i.  That coupled with a loss by Louisiana Tech at San Jose State moved the Aggies into a tie for first place atop the WAC.  The Aggies face San Jose State on Saturday night in a game that will feature a couple of electric scorers in New Mexico State’s Jahmar Young and San Jose State’s Adrian Oliver, who torched Louisiana Tech for 39 points in SJSU’s win.

San Jose State (10-8, 3-3)

The week’s results:
01/18 L @ Hawai’i, 68-67
01/21 W vs. Louisiana Tech, 87-76

Upcoming games:
01/23 vs. New Mexico State
01/28 vs. Hawai’i

The Spartans split their two games, losing a heartbreaker to Hawai’i 68-67 when the Warriors hit a pair of free throws with 2.1 seconds left to win the game.  However, they bounced back to hand Louisiana Tech their first loss in conference play.  Adrian Oliver scored a career-high 39 points, one shy of the single game record of 40 set by Wally Rank on January 3, 1980.  The Spartans host league leading New Mexico State on Saturday in a game that should be a shootout.

Utah State (14-6, 4-2)

The week’s results:
01/16 W vs. Boise State, 81-59
01/21 W @ Fresno State, 69-43

Upcoming games:
01/23 @ Idaho

The Aggies have their mojo back.  After getting pounded by 22 at Louisiana Tech, Utah State has found whatever they were missing and is now the team doing the pounding.  Riding a four-game win streak the Aggies have beaten three of their past four opponents by an average of 30.7 points.  Their lone close game was an impressive overtime win in Reno, site of this year’s conference tournament.  The Aggies travel to Moscow, ID, to take on the Vandals where it will pit head coach Stew Morrill against long-time assistant Don Verlin who is now in his second season at Idaho.

UPCOMING GAMES

01/23 – Idaho vs. Utah State – 5:00 p.m. PT (ESPN360)
01/23 – Hawai’i vs. Louisiana Tech – 7:00 p.m. HT (KFVE Honolulu)
01/23 – San Jose State vs. New Mexico State – 7:00 p.m. PT
01/23 – Fresno State vs. Nevada – 7:00 p.m. PT (Comcast SportsNet California)
01/25 – Idaho vs. Boise State – 8:00 p.m. PT (ESPNU)
01/28 – San Jose State vs. Hawai’i – 7:00 p.m. PT
01/28 – Idaho vs. Fresno State – 7:00 p.m. PT

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RTC Official Bubble Watch: 01.22.10

Posted by zhayes9 on January 22nd, 2010

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every Friday until Madness ensues.

bubble-burst

You know we’re headed to the stretch run towards March Madness when Bubble Watch debuts here at Rush the Court. Let’s go through all six major conferences plus those non-BCS contenders to determine who’s safely in the field, who still has work to accomplish, who’s sitting firmly on the bubble and who needs to rack up the wins to be dancing when the brackets are determined. Without further ado:

ACC

Locks: Although the massive jumble in the middle of the ACC does include Duke, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils feature an RPI/SOS in the top ten and quality wins over Clemson, Arizona State, Connecticut and Wake Forest. Still, it has to be concerning for Coach K that it’s mid-January and his team is 0-3 in true road games.

Should be in: I’d be surprised if Clemson at 15-4 (3-2) and a #30 RPI didn’t make the field. After welcoming Duke into town Saturday night, the Tigers will have moved past the hardest portion of their ACC slate into a stretch of four of six at home with Maryland, Florida State, Miami and Virginia making a trip to Littlejohn Coliseum. Mixed in there is a trip to BC and a more difficult roadie at Virginia Tech. By definition of the phrase, Georgia Tech “should be in” given their talent level and quality wins in ACC play. But I’m weary given this team’s capabilities of playing down to their opponent. They’re helped strongly by an RPI and SOS in the top 30.

On the bubble: Wake Forest is looking more and more like an NCAA team with a #25 RPI. They also just survived the Duke/UNC road swing with a split while two wins- vs. Maryland in OT and at Gonzaga in December- could loom large as we head towards Selection Sunday. Maryland is still working to boost a lackluster RPI and lack any semblance of a signature win during non-conference play. They must take care of business against NC State and Miami at home before embarking on a Clemson/FSU road swing that should test their mettle. The win at Georgia Tech gave Florida State a nice boost in their first ACC game, but they promptly blew that by falling to NC State at home. The Seminoles only played one NCAA team (two if you include Florida) in non-conference play and was blown out against Ohio State (#117 overall SOS). They need to finish 10-8 in the ACC and gather another signature win over Duke, Clemson, North Carolina or Georgia Tech to feel comfortable. Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m sure they’ll turn it around once Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller return. Still, at 12-7 (1-3) and an RPI in the 60’s, Roy Williams is starting to feel the heat. Lose at NC State next Wednesday and things could really collapse.

This season has been a headache for Roy Williams

On the fringe: Virginia is the feel-good story in the ACC in Tony Bennett’s first season, but I’d be shocked if the Cavaliers made the tournament. They lost out-of-conference to bottom feeders South Florida, Penn State, Auburn and Stanford and have benefited from a favorable first three games in ACC play. It’s going to take an 10-6 mark in the ACC to dance. Miami (FL) was quickly determined to be a fluke after compiling a lofty record on the back of a non-conference SOS in the 300’s. They were just swept by BC to fall to 1-4 in the ACC and need a gigantic turnaround for Frank Haith to avoid the hot seat.

Big East

Locks: Plenty of locks and elite teams at the top with Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh all feeling comfortable. While the Florida and North Carolina wins during pre-Big East play look less and less impressive for Syracuse, they still boast the #1 RPI in the nation and an abundantly favorable conference slate the rest of the way with only one difficult road contest at Georgetown. I’d be stunned if the Orange are not a #1 seed come March. Villanova has the lone unblemished mark but still has to travel to Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. A split should be enough for #1 seed contention. Georgetown picked up a huge victory at Pittsburgh behind Chris Wright this week. They have a chance to make inroads as a #2 seed if they can upset Syracuse and beat Duke at home. Pittsburgh’s incredible sweep of a Syracuse-Cincinnati-Connecticut road swing should prove invaluable in terms of seeding. West Virginia could pick up a nice resume-building win tomorrow with Evan Turner back for Ohio State.

Should be in: Aside from the five locks, there’s not much else to love about the Big East. Connecticut’s resume is strongly boosted by the #1 SOS in the nation. Still, unless Notre Dame makes the tournament, the Huskies still haven’t beaten a team that will be dancing in March. They have a golden opportunity tomorrow in Storrs against temporarily-top ranked Texas. Knocking off Texas would give Connecticut a signature win and move them closer to lock status with two tricky road games ahead against Providence and Louisville.

On the bubble: Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino’s team is looking more and more like a bubble squad with their loss at Seton Hall on Thursday. Louisville’s non-conference wins are even worse than UConn and the stench from the Charlotte/Western Carolina defeats still linger. Their #48 RPI is bubblicious with a crucial bubble game this Sunday against Cincinnati looming. Cincinnati at 13-6 (4-3) was one of my last teams in the field and the win over South Florida doesn’t change anything.

Samardo Samuels is the key for Louisville to earn a berth

On the fringe: Notre Dame has a stretch ahead where they could enter the field. Aside from a road game at Villanova, six of their next seven are very winnable with DePaul, Cincinnati, South Florida and St. John’s coming to South Bend and road games at Rutgers and Seton Hall. They have a chance here to make a push, although the weak non-conference SOS doesn’t help the cause. I wouldn’t count Seton Hall out, either. They could still get to 10-8 in the Big East which would put them right on the bubble come Big East Tournament time.

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Checking in on… the Mountain West

Posted by jstevrtc on January 22nd, 2010

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West Conference.

Standings (as of 1/21):

  1. BYU                                        19-1                       4-0
  2. New Mexico                      17-3                       3-2
  3. UNLV                                     15-4                       3-2
  4. San Diego State                14-5                       3-2
  5. Colorado State                  11-7                       2-2
  6. TCU                                        10-9                       2-2
  7. Utah                                      9-9                          2-2
  8. Wyoming                            8-11                       1-4
  9. Air Force                              8-9                          0-4

Superlatives:

Team of the Week. New Mexico. Two road games (albeit against the eight and ninth place teams in the conference) and two road wins, getting back on track and breaking out of their shooting slump in a big way, knocking down 13 of their 27 three-point attempts against Air Force on Wednesday.

Player of the Week. Malcolm Thomas, Jr, San Diego State. Thomas, a transfer from Pepperdine in his first year with the Aztecs, had a huge week for Steve Fisher, putting in 11 points, grabbing nine rebounds and handing out six assists in a home win against TCU before going for a career high 23 points and ripping down 13 rebounds in a road win at Utah on Tuesday as the Aztecs got right back into the picture at the top of the standings in a bunch of teams with two losses.

Newcomer of the Week. Thomas. I suppose if you’re the POTW, and you’re a newcomer, you’re also the Newcomer of the Week. Special mention to freshman Tyler Haws of BYU, who has turned into a legitimate second offensive threat for the conference-leading Cougars.

Game of the Week. San Diego State 70, Utah 68. After Utah knocked off UNLV at the Thomas & Mack on Saturday, they came back home knowing that things were not going to get a whole lot easier. And with the MWC POTW spending most of the game hanging out above the rim, grabbing rebounds, sending back opposing shots, throwing down dunks, slipping in layups around Utah’s seven-foot-five sophomore center David Foster and generally dominating the paint, the Aztecs definitely gave the Utes all they could handle. And yet, down the stretch, with the Aztecs trying to seal off a victory, the free throws clanged off the rim left and right (SDSU was 10-23 from the line over the course of the game, and just 5-11 in the final two minutes). A desperation three by junior guard Carlon Brown at the buzzer, however,  rattled off the rim and the Aztecs pulled off a key road win to wrap up a 2-0 week in the MWC.

Games of the Upcoming Week. BYU @ San Diego State, January 23rd , The MTN and BYU @ New Mexico, January 27th, The MTN. While the Cougars are off to a 4-0 start in conference, most of that damage was done in front of the home crowd at the Marriott Center. But Dave Rose and company will have to take their act on the road to face two teams sitting in the pack just behind BYU. If BYU can come through this week unscathed, you can pencil them in as the one seed in Vegas in March.

League Notes:

A couple weeks worth of conference play is in the rearview mirror, and those standings are starting to look like we expected them to look now: BYU at the top, a pack including UNLV, New Mexico and San Diego State sitting within striking distance, a pack in the middle including Utah, and Wyoming and Air Force bringing up the rear. While there will be some type of shuffling throughout the year, expect those tiers to remain relatively intact.

Also of note, this week’s Utah/Wyoming game will be the last MWC game that will not be televised on either The MTN, CBS College Sports Network or Versus.

Team Roundups:

BYU

Looking back: BYU had a couple of home games against middle-of-the-pack MWC teams this week, and coasted, winning by an average of 29.5 points. The week started with a matchup with Colorado State, a battle between the final two teams with undefeated conference records. While the Rams hung around through a few TV timeouts, the Cougars posted a 12-0 run heading into the break and then went on to post a 53-25 second half romp on their way to a 44-point thrashing of CSU. They followed that up with a solid 15-point victory over Wyoming and now sit on the verge of a 20-win season before February even arrives. While junior guard Jimmer Fredette’s return from mono to have a solid week may be the most important news of the week, the continued development of Haws may be just as important to BYU’s hopes come March. This week, Haws posted a new career high of 24 points against Wyoming, and also added 11 against CSU.

Looking ahead: As mentioned above in our Game of the Upcoming Week section, this is a huge week for the Cougars with two road games against very good competition in front of very unwelcoming crowds, at San Diego State on Saturday, then at New Mexico on Wednesday.

New Mexico

Looking back: While the opponents weren’t impressive, and the Lobos continued to struggle at times, the outcomes of the game (two road wins) vaulted New Mexico back up the standings and gave them new confidence. Sophomore guard Philip McDonald was the hottest Lobo this week, averaging 20 points per game and knocking down ten threes in the process, including a career high seven as the Lobos caught fire from behind the arc in the second half against Air Force on Wednesday, after their shooting woes had continued against Wyoming on Saturday (3-19 from three). But, it was the Lobo defense that saved the day against the Cowboys as they forced 23 turnovers on the game, including turnovers on three straight possession after the Cowboys came back to tie the score at 58. New Mexico converted those three turnovers into six points and never looked back, eking out a two-point road victory.

Looking ahead: Back to the home-court advantage of The Pit, as the Lobos will host Colorado State on Saturday before hosting conference-leader BYU on Wednesday.

UNLV

Looking back: The Rebels emerge from the week with a 1-1 record, and remain right in the thick of things at the top of the MWC standings, but their play this week was less than impressive. While junior guard Tre’Von Willis provided most of the offensive spark for the Rebels this week (24 PPG, plus six rebounds and four assists in a loss to Utah on Saturday), it was sophomore forward Chace Stanback who took the biggest step forward this week, going for 14/10 against Utah, then pouring in 19 points, including 15 in the second half as the Rebels withstood Colorado State in Fort Collins. However, all the weaknesses that are apparent in UNLV’s lineup were on display this week, as the team went 1/12 from three in their loss at Utah and turning the ball over 16 times in allowing CSU to hang around. While Willis and Stanback have turned into the lead duo for the Rebels and sophomore point Oscar Bellfield is an excellent leader, there is precious little consistency beyond those three and that will need to change should UNLV hope to be a serious threat for the MWC title.

Looking ahead: The Rebels travel to TCU on Saturday, then host Air Force on Tuesday as the schedule lightens up a bit before round two of the MWC home-and-home round robin.

San Diego State

Looking back: The main takeaway from this week is a 2-0 record, including the tough road win at the Huntsman Center detailed above in our Game of the Week section. Before that, however, the Aztecs also added a home win against TCU, during which the Aztecs defense forced 20 TCU turnovers and limited the Horned Frogs to just six free throw attempts (compared to SDSU’s 25). However, as things start to tighten up as we head towards March, the Aztecs know they will have to shoot their free throws better. Over the week, the Aztecs made just 25 of their 48 free throw attempts, and over the season they rank 344th in Division I in free throw percentage, just 58.4%, a weakness that could prove deadly in close games.

Looking ahead: Just one game for the Aztecs this week, but it is a doozy as they host BYU at the Mesa on Saturday.

Colorado State

Looking back: A week ago at this time, the Rams were undefeated and riding high. Two losses to two of the conference’s power teams later, and CSU is back where they deserve to be: right in the middle of the MWC pack. The Rams got exposed as pretenders to the MWC crown when they visited Provo on Saturday, failing to show up at all in the second half, but to head coach Tim Miles’ credit, he had his kids ready to play at home against UNLV on Wednesday. The Rams held tight all night, forced 16 turnovers, got 20 points (including five threes) from freshman point Dorian Green, but wound up losing the game at the free throw line, making just 16 of their 28 free throw attempts while UNLV his 19 of their 23. It was made pretty clear this week that the Rams are not up to the level of the top teams in the conference, but they seem to be very capable of finishing atop the middle-of-the-pack tier.

Looking ahead: If the one-two punch of BYU/UNLV wasn’t enough, the Rams get an extra course with a trip to New Mexico on Saturday. On Wednesday, things will settle down a little as the Rams get to pick on someone their own size as they host TCU in what should be an evenly-matched battle.

TCU

Looking back: TCU’s lone conference game of the week was a trip out west to face San Diego State on Saturday, and  for a half at least things looked pretty good. The Horned Frogs were on fire in the first session, hitting 70% of their shots and six of their eight threes on the way to a nine-point halftime lead. However, they couldn’t keep up the pace in the second half, knocking down only seven of their 21 field goal attempts (although six of those seven makes were from behind the arc) and they were outscored by 14 in the second half. While the Frogs still wound up shooting at a 55% clip from behind the arc in the game, they turned the ball over 20 times and only got to the free throw line six times. On Wednesday, Jim Christian’s squad wrapped up non-conference play with a date with Texas-Pan American, and without a doubt the coach got in their ears about not relying on the three-point shot, as the Horned Frogs made a whopping 73% of their shots inside the arc on their way to a 12-point win. Sophomore point Tuffy Moss bounced back from some unsteady play last week by handing out 21 dimes this week, and senior forward Zvonko Buljan added 11.5 PPG and 9 RPG.

Looking ahead: TCU hosts UNLV on Saturday, then travels to Colorado State on Wednesday.

Utah

Looking back: This is the type of week we have predicted all along for Utah, knocking off an upper-echelon team on the road, then backing it up with a home loss. This Ute team remains only predictable in their inconsistency, and at some point this season, they will throw up a loss to Wyoming or Air Force or TCU just to prove it. In an upset victory at UNLV on Saturday, the Utes looked like a solid, veteran squad, hitting half of their field goals in the second half, hitting half of their threes over the course of the game and knocking down seven of their eight free throws in the final 90 seconds to withstand a late charge by the Rebels. They got balanced scoring (four players in double figures), they rebounded well, they played solid defense, they got six blocks from Foster, Brown knocked down some clutch threes, freshman guard Marshall Henderson added five more threes and they held on for a four point win. Three nights later, playing in front of a supportive Huntsman Center crowd, well, let’s just say things didn’t work out. They shot only 23% from the field in the first half, and despite SDSU’s best try at giving the game away (detailed in our MWC Game of the Week section above), Utah came away with a split over the week.

Looking ahead: Looking at the schedule, this looks to be a good week for the Utes, as they host Air Force before heading to Laramie to face Wyoming on Wednesday. Knowing this Utah team, don’t be surprised if they shoot 24% from the field for a game and drop one of these.

Wyoming

Looking back: Heath Schroyer had to know coming into the week that this was going to be a tough week, facing two of the elite teams in the conference. While the Cowboys played New Mexico tough in Laramie on Saturday, losing by just two despite turning the ball over 23 times, things took a bad turn early in Wednesday’s game in Provo when sophomore swing Afam Muojeke went down with a knee injury early in the first half and didn’t return. Wyoming never seemed to recover emotionally from that blow, and that combined with another 17 turnovers led to a 15-point loss at Wyoming. As of Thursday, the extent of Muojeke’s injury was not yet known, although he did miss four games earlier this year with a bruised knee.

Looking ahead: Wyoming hosts Utah on Wednesday in their only game of the week.

Air Force

Looking back: Different week, same Air Force story; another loss (to New Mexico by 23 on Wednesday), and another injury report. Senior forward Mike McLain returned from his concussion and got 21 minutes in the New Mexico game and senior guard Avery Merriex continues to play through a broken nose after returning from a concussion. Still no sign of nor report on senior forward Grant Parker (groin injury) or sophomore center Sammy Schafer (complications from concussion). While this Falcon team never had a chance to be an elite MWC team, it would have been interesting to see where this team could have finished with a full complement of players and they could still be capable of springing an upset or two if they ever get back near full strength. Junior guard Evan Washington did break out of a slump a bit this week with 16 points, six rebounds and three assists against the Lobos.

Looking ahead: At Utah on Saturday and at UNLV on Tuesday. Looks like another brutal week for the Falcons.

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Morning Five: 01.22.10 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on January 22nd, 2010

  1. Washington State lost its dispute with Oregon over a controversial technical foul call at the end of the first overtime in a New Year’s Eve conference game in Pullman.  The issue arose after Wazzu seemingly won the game with 0.3 seconds remaining when several bench players and at least one fan stepped onto the court.  A technical foul was called, and Oregon was awarded two FTs to tie the game, sending it into double-OT where they won 91-89.  From our viewing of it here, it looked like a hundred other exciting endings that happen during the normal course of a season, but the Pac-10 chose to hide behind the technicality.
  2. St. Louis coach Rick Majerus, in the midst of a somewhat promising season at 12-6 and 3-1 in the A10, took an opportunity to throw his conference (the Atlantic 10) under the bus yesterday, sparing no complaint about the expensive East Coast cities, the travel, the airports and even the old standby, academics.  He said he’d prefer to play in the MVC, which makes geographic sense, but what’s left unsaid is that he’d prefer the built-in advantage of playing in Arch Madness for a trip to the NCAA Tournament just minutes from the SLU campus.  He didn’t mention whether a lack of high thread count towels in their budget hotels factored into his decision.
  3. Another interesting insight from Mike DeCourcy — Duke’s much-lauded point guard Jon Scheyer isn’t getting it done down the stretch of close games.  Someone out there surely has the time and energy to track his numbers in those games, right?  Let us know in the comments if you do.
  4. Gary Parrish: not a fan of the Christian Drejer/Lucca Staiger method of doing business.  We think the lesson here is that coaches will have to carefully vet European players they’re recruiting to try to ensure they’ll have a modicum of loyalty to the school should an offer appear on the table back home midway through the season.
  5. Luke Winn moves Kentucky up to #1 in his Power Rankings.  He refers to it in the Tennessee section (#7), but it’s worth noting that KenPom rates the Cats #13 in his latest rankings, in large part because the defensive efficiency is a pedestrian #36 in the nation (offensive efficiency is #11).  The biggest two drivers of that stat are the fact that UK doesn’t defend the three well (36%, #254) and doesn’t force a lot of turnovers (20.9%, #167).  This should be somewhat concerning for John Calipari, as his best Memphis teams (2006-09) all had superb defenses that consistently shut down the three-ball.  If/when Kentucky loses, expect it to be because of a hot shooting night from deep.
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ATB: Where is the Louisville Defense?

Posted by rtmsf on January 22nd, 2010

Louisville Joins UNC on the Early BubbleSeton Hall 80, Louisville 77.  We realize of course that Louisville has had a tendency in the Pitino era to start off slowly and finish strong, but we have a feeling that isn’t going to happen this year.  The problem is with a Pitino staple, their defense, the efficiency of which is currently the worst in the last five years for his teams.  The Cards allow a very average 46% from two and 35% from three, which mitigates the robust amount of turnovers that they   force in their trapping defense.  And tonight’s game against Seton Hall is a good example of the defensive struggles that Louisville is enduring this year — the Pirates shot 53% from the field, put all five starters in double figures, and even the human cannon known as Jeremy Hazell (25/5) hit a good percentage (9-12 FG) against the Card defense.  So what’s the answer?  We’re not sure that there is one with the personnel Pitino has at his disposal.  In the last three games (all losses), the Cards have given up greater than 1.15 points per possession against teams that do not typically do that well in that regard.  This loss puts Louisville at 12-7 and 3-3 in the Big East, but we could easily see seven or eight more losses in the conference for the Cards should they not tighten up that defense in the next few weeks.  An 8-10 record, even in the loaded Big East, may not be enough given that really hasn’t beaten a “good” team all season (and only three in the KenPom top 100!).  Seton Hall should be proud of itself for stepping up to take this game, which they very nearly let get away from them in the last few minutes.  Having lost four of five, the Pirates could have easily folded up the tent and allowed Louisville to steal a much-needed road win, but Bobby Gonzalez’s group instead showed their mettle and put came out with a win in one of their best performances of the season.

Seton Hall Didn't Back Down From Louisville (AP/Bill Kostroun)

Um, Who? UCLA 62, Washington 61. Someone named Mustafa Abdul-Hamid, a reserve guard who had taken only 22 shots all season coming into tonight’s game, received the ball at halfcourt with three seconds remaining on the clock and does what all players who are thrust in that position do: three dribbles, rise and fire.  His shot from the top of the key at the buzzer was all net, and UCLA earned a hard-fought win over what has to be one of the most disappointing teams (other than these very Bruins) in the country in UW. (see below at 1:00)  We’ve stopped trying to predict the crazy Pac-10 this year, but given just how poorly UCLA has played on both ends of the floor this season, Washington has no excuse for dropping this game, even in Pauley Pavilion.  Quincy Pondexter had 23/6, but he didn’t get much help with Isaiah Thomas only adding 11 and nobody else in double figures.  For a team averaging nearly 80 PPG, they were well below their normal offensive output.  As for UCLA, all we can say is that when a player like Abdul-Hamid is taking your game-winning shots, even if he’s making them, you have tremendous problems to solve.  All that said, it wouldn’t shock us if Washington ran off ten straight in this league now that we’re piling on them here.

Super Mids Keep Rolling.  #10 Gonzaga and #20 Butler got scares in their respective conferences tonight, but as usual, they both came out with another win.

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Checking in on… the Big 12

Posted by jstevrtc on January 21st, 2010

Patrick Sellars is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 Conference.

Power Rankings:

  1. Texas (17-1, 3-1) – I can’t fault Texas for losing on the road to Kansas State for two reasons. First, Kansas State is a great team that deserves their top ten rankings, and second because it was a road game in a conference where the home team consistently comes out on top.
  2. Kansas (17-1, 3-0) – The Jayhawks just barely squeaked out a win over Baylor behind great play from Marcus Morris and Sherron Collins. KU looks like they’re ready to make a big run and separate themselves from all the other contenders in the conference.
  3. Kansas State (16-2, 3-1) – I really thought that KSU would be overmatched against Texas, but the Wildcats won the game by dominating what was thought to be the best frontcourt in the nation.  Jamar Samuels and Rodney McGruder were the heroes for Frank Martin’s squad in their biggest home victory since 1994.
  4. Missouri (14-4, 2-1) – The Tigers blew a big lead against the Sooners in Norman on Saturday, but they should be able to rebound at home against Nebraska. Mizzou will put their 30 game home winning streak on the line against the Cornhuskers.
  5. Baylor (14-3, 2-2) – I really like how the Bears are playing at this point in the season.  Last night they played a very close game against KU on the road, which shows that this Baylor team has a lot of pride.  Ekpe Udoh is the key to this team’s success, but it should be easy for them to win most of their games against Big 12 South opponents (excluding Texas).
  6. Texas A&M (13-5, 2-2) – The Aggies are squarely on the bubble as we head into the last week of January. The win over Oklahoma was key for this team’s tournament hopes, and it is nice for TAMU fans to see production out of guard B.J. Holmes.
  7. Oklahoma State (14-4, 2-2) – The Cowboys have the toughest stretch in their schedule coming up, so it should tell us if this Oklahoma State team is good enough to play in the NCAA Tournament or if they are destined for the NIT.
  8. Oklahoma (11-7, 2-2) – The Sooners got a huge win over Mizzou at home, but they may have seen their tournament hopes slip away with the loss to Texas A&M on Tuesday night. Seven losses before we hit February is far too many for a team with so much talent.
  9. Texas Tech (13-5, 1-3) – The Red Raiders’ very weak non-conference schedule probably is hurting this team more than it is helping them. TTU needs to get back to .500 in the conference before we can start talking postseason again.
  10. Colorado (10-8,1-3) – I think we will see more wins for Colorado in Boulder, but I really don’t think CU will be able to pick up any wins on the road unless the game is in Ames or Lincoln.
  11. Iowa State (12-6, 1-2) – The Cyclones have fought hard in all of their conference games thus far. Their first three, that is.  It’s a long Big 12 season and it’s a loaded conference.
  12. Nebraska (12-6, 0-3) – NU may have seen its only potential win slip out of their hands when they blew a halftime lead against ISU.

Team of the WeekKansas State Wildcats – Really a no-brainer here, after the Wildcats knocked off the number one team. KSU got a lot of help from the Longhorns’ terrible free throw shooting, but that shouldn’t take any credit away from the outstanding play from Kansas State’s frontcourt.

Player of the WeekJamar Samuels, F Kansas State – Coming off the bench and having a 20 point/12 rebound performance against the top rated team in the nation warrants you a Player of the Week honor in my book. Without Samuels I don’t see how KSU wins that game.

This Week’s Predictions:

Colorado at Texas A&M (Saturday January 23rd, 1:30 PM ET) – Donald Sloan and company have a lot to play for in this game. They can’t let CU steal a win from them on their home court. I think Cory Higgins will keep this one close, but in the end TAMU will pull away with the victory.  Winner: Texas A&M

Kansas at Iowa State (Saturday January 23rd, 2:00 PM ET ESPN) – I really think Iowa State can win this game. Craig Brackins and Marquis Gilstrap are a tandem that can reek havoc on any team, and Kansas is not playing their best basketball as of late. I wish I had the guts to pick ISU, but I’m taking the safe route and going with the Jayhawks.   Winner: Kansas

Oklahoma State at Kansas State (Saturday January 23rd, 4:00 PM ET) – Historically, teams are very vulnerable after coming off a huge win. However, the crowd will be loud in Manhattan and I think we’ll see a hard-fought but relatively easy win for Frank Martin and Kansas State. Winner: Kansas State

Nebraska at Missouri (Saturday January 23rd, 6:00 PM ET) – The worst team in the Big 12 is coming into Columbia, where the Tigers have not lost in 30 straight contests, and the game is sold out. Nothing is pointing to a possible win for the Huskers.  Winner: Missouri

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (Saturday January 23rd, 8:00 PM ET) – Texas Tech is coming off their first Big 12 victory, but it was just a seven point win over Iowa State at home. TTU has been the team with the least bit of “home court advantage” in this conference, so I think OU comes into Lubbock and steals a win.  Winner: Oklahoma

Missouri at Kansas (Monday January 25th, 9:00 PM ET ESPN) – KU hates Missouri, and loves every opportunity it gets to thrash the Tigers on their home court. I don’t think that MU will get destroyed, but I don’t see any way how Mizzou could get a win over the Jayhawks in Lawrence.  Winner: Kansas

Kansas State at Baylor (Tuesday January 26th, 8:00 PM ET) – Baylor is in search of their first big win in the conference, and I think they will get it Tuesday night in Waco. Ekpe Udoh and LaceDarius Dunn will be too much for KSU to handle, and the Bears will help their case for the NCAA Tournament.  Winner: Baylor

Texas Tech at Texas (Wednesday January 27th, 9:00 PM ET ESPNU) – This will be Texas’ first home game since their loss to Kansas State, so there will be plenty of fans cheering on the Longhorns as they take on an in-state rival. Damion James may have his best game of the season against TTU, and show you why he should be National Player of the Year.  Winner: Texas

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (Wednesday January 27th, 7:30 PM ET ESPN2)- Wow, this is going to be a very important game for both teams. Both are on the bubble looking for another win to help their tournament hopes. I like Oklahoma State in this one just because it is in Stillwater, but I will not be surprised at all if TAMU comes out with a victory.  Winner: Oklahoma State

Iowa State at Oklahoma (Wednesday January 27th, 9:00 PM ET) – Cade Davis and Willie Warren should each have big games, but there is no one in Oklahoma’s frontcourt that can contain Brackins or Gilstrap. I’m picking an upset here, as I think ISU will be too much for OU on the inside.  Winner: Iowa State

Nebraska at Colorado (Wednesday January 27th, 10:00 PM ET) – Colorado can match their win total from last season if they pick up a victory against lowly Nebraska, and that’s exactly what they will do. The Cornhuskers are just too far behind the rest of the conference in terms of talent level.  Winner: Colorado

Non-Conference Games:

Texas at Connecticut (Saturday January 23rd, 4:00 PM ET CBS) – UConn is overrated, even when they are out of the Top 25. I know that the game is in Connecticut, but there is no way that the Huskies will have an answer for Texas’ talent and depth.  Winner: Texas

Massachusetts at Baylor (Saturday January 23rd, 4:00 PM ET ESPNU) – UMass currently have seven wins. I really like Baylor’s chances in this one.  Winner: Baylor

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Set Your Tivo: 01.21.10

Posted by rtmsf on January 21st, 2010

SYT Star System

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Louisville @ Seton Hall – 7 pm on ESPN  (**)

It appears the basketball gods are punishing us for such a great night of basketball on Wednesday.  These two teams are both battling losing streaks right now, and it is highly likely that one or both of these teams will not make the tournament.  Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa have both scored above their season averages in their last two games, but they lost at home to Villanova and on the road to Pitt.  Seton Hall started out the season 8-0, playing teams like Monmouth and the infamous NJIT, and is now being punished for not challenging themselves early on.  Since scoring 134 points in a win against VMI, the Pirates have gone 2-6.  One reason to watch this game is the play of Seton Hall’s Jeremy Hazell, who can torch defenses in a hurry (five games of 30 points or more including a 41-point outburst against West Virginia).  Also working in SHU’s favor is the home court advantage, as Louisville is just 1-3 on the road this season.  We know Louisville has talent, but they are also the team that followed up a 22-point embarrassment against Charlotte with a loss against Western Carolina.  This is Louisville’s game to lose.

Indiana @ Penn State – 7 pm on ESPN2  (*)

This is the definition of a one-star game.  I am not sure why ESPN is broadcasting this, except to show a Big Ten matchup in which both teams are so bad there will be no chance of rushing the court.  With three losses in their last four games, Indiana joins the Nittany Lions at 8-9.  Penn State comes into tonight as losers of their last five games, all of which came against Big Ten teams.  This game will also likely be in the sixties, as Indiana gives up 69.7 points per game on defense while Penn State allows 61.6 points on average.  If you like missed shots and turnovers, this game may actually be entertaining for you.  Maurice Creek, Indiana’s leading scorer is injured, so this game actually has the possibility of the 40s, like Indiana did against Michigan.  Penn State’s go-to scorer, Talor Battle, can shoot from anywhere and is a threat to rebound and distribute as well, so fans may see some fireworks.  After Battle, Penn State has three guys that average 7.9, 7.9, and 7.8 points per game in David Jackson, Chris Babb and Jeff Brooks, so it may be difficult to pinpoint where to attack such a well-balanced team.  Indiana has shown signs of life this year, including their win against Pitt, so look for Verdell Jones III and Christian Watford to lead Indiana to an ugly win.

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Morning Five: 01.21.10 Edition

Posted by rtmsf on January 21st, 2010

  1. UConn AD Jeff Hathaway stated unequivocally yesterday that Jim Calhoun’s medical problems were not career-ending in nature, but there is no timetable for the coach’s return to the sideline.  Seth Davis, not messing around with his pointed advice to the UConn coach regarding his most recent leave of absence: get out while you still can. The sideline is no place for a good man to die.  While we agree with the general sentiment of Davis’ article, we’re also betting he’s back within a week.
  2. Dan Fitzgerald, the progenitor of the Gonzaga basketball program as the man who recruited John Stockton to campus in the 80s and developed a coaching staff that included future GU coaches Dan Monson and Mark Few, passed away suddenly on Wednesday in Spokane.  His record was 252-171 (.596) in fifteen seasons at the school and he took the Zags to their first-ever NCAA Tournament in 1995 before resigning two years later.  RIP “Fitz.”
  3. Obama’s Education Secretary Arne Duncan is in the college hoops news for the second time in a week, stating yesterday that the NCAA should consider tying invitations to the NCAA Tournament to player graduation rates.  Umm, yeah.  While we’re at it, let’s have the players bring their report cards to the scorer’s table before checking into the game.
  4. The University of New Orleans has lost its struggle to remain a Division I school, and has voluntarily withdrawn itself from the Sun Belt Conference, effective July 1, 2010.  We knew this was coming, but it’s sad to see the Privateers go.  The four-time NCAA Tournament entrant won a game in 1987 with Ledell  “A-Train” Eackles as its star player, and who can forget former grocery bagger Ervin Johnson who played for Tim Floyd in the early 1990s and took the program to two NCAA Tourneys.
  5. And this is the part where you realize these players are still kids and they’re not always the most mature beings around these programs.  Royce White, the Minnesota player who created a bizarre YouTube video announcing his retirement from basketball last month, is back at practice for Tubby Smith’s team.  There’s no timetable for his actual return to action, but Tubby has been known for giving troubled kids second chances, and it’s clear that something like this is happening here.  Let’s hope he understands and appreciates the opportunity he’s being given this time around.
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ATB: The Night Basketball in the Triangle Died…

Posted by rtmsf on January 21st, 2010

Black Wednesday in RTP.  A bit of hyperbole here, as we make reference to Black Sunday (March 11, 1979), the infamous day when both UNC and Duke lost NCAA second round games on the same afternoon.  Still, tonight’s surprising losses by both Carolina and Duke to the two ‘other’ schools in the traditional Big Four represent the first time in nearly seven years that they both lost conference games on the same night.  How on earth could this have happened?  Are big scary red/black aliens shaped in Deacon and Wolf form landing tonight to take us all away?  Will tears of blood flow from the sky as God weeps for us?   Will high-profile recruits clown Uncle Roy?  These are all good questions for the people of central North Carolina to be asking tonight, so we’re here to help them make sense of it all.  (ed. note: what?  NC State wasn’t shipped out to somewhere like Pembroke in the late 80s?)

NC State Exorcised Their Devils Tonight (N&O/Ethan Hyman)

  • NC State 88, #6 Duke 74.  There were a lot of shocking parts to this game, but by far the biggest shocker was the knife-through-butter ease by which NC State repeatedly shredded the Duke defense.  The Devils have held their opponents to 41% from inside the arc and 28% from beyond it all season long, but the Pack paid that no mind, shooting a red-hot 58% for the entire game and hitting five timely threes on a reasonable twelve attempts.  Even the expected collapse that everyone thought was coming immediately after halftime (and Nolan Smith’s ridiculous catch-and-shoot trey just before the buzzer) never materialized.  Instead it was NC State that appeared to have the confidence, pushing their lead back out into double-digits and answering the Devils each and every time they cut the lead to eight.  The night belonged to NCSU’s Tracy Smith, the 22d birthday boy who could seemingly do no wrong, dropping 23/5 on 10-12 FGs on a variety of post moves and drives to the hole.  The Duke defense, one of the very best in the nation coming into tonight, seemed bewildered and confused by Smith all night long, almost as if he’d been left off the scouting report.  Coach K’s group allowed over a point per possession for just the fourth time all season, and at 1.23 PPP tonight, it was easily their worst performance of the year.  Something tells us that their level of effort on that end will not go unnoticed by Krzyzewski.  With the win, NC State moves to 2-3 in the ACC race, and would you believe that the leaders of this conference are Virginia (3-0) and Maryland (2-1)?  Is it too early to start calling the ACC the Pac-10 East with its nuttiness so far this year?  Final thought: nice RTC, State students.  And, deserved (start at 2:50).

  • Wake Forest 82, #23 UNC 69.  Freshmen?  No, I don’t think so.  Wake’s C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart were impolite guests in their first visit to the Dean Dome as collegians, to say the least.  In the first half, Wake cajoled UNC into questionable shot selection while taking good ones themselves and went into halftime with a three point lead.  When UNC came out quickly early in the second and almost immediately made it just a one-point deficit, you got the feeling that Roy Williams had indeed gone into his magic bag and come up with a speech that would now put things right.  You could feel that UNC had finally shown up and that they — the ranked team, at home — would redeem themselves, take advantage of the young Deacon guards, pull out a win, and SURELY avoid a three-game losing streak, something that’s never happened here under Roy Williams.  It cannot happen here under Roy Williams.  Right?  RIGHT?  Well… it just did.  Harris and Stewart looked like anything but frosh in the second half right about the time UNC started getting their legs under them.  First, almost halfway through the second half, it was Stewart.  A three.  Then another.  Then ANOTHER.  That last one is in caps because it was from about 22 feet, finishing the triple of triples that came in a span of a minute and 26 seconds.  About a minute later, it was Harris, drilling two straight from the same spot on the left.  Those five threes were courtesy of assists from four different players.  At that point the Deacons’ lead was 15, and the Tar Heels were done.  A couple of minutes later Ish Smith — a terror tonight, with 20/7/6 on 9-17 shooting — drilled another three for the official dagger.  A team on which each player knows and cherishes his role is a dangerous thing, and that is this Wake Forest team — at least, it was tonight.  Aside from the aforementioned guards providing the outside threat, Smith distributes well and is a heady senior point guard.  Al-Farouq Aminu, whose 13/11 we haven’t even mentioned, is a fine interior defender and rebounds like a maniac.  Chas McFarland might not take many shots (1-3 tonight), but he gets to the line and hits the boards (ten against UNC) and anchors the defense inside with Aminu.  And they seem to be buying in to what Dino Gaudio is teaching.  Sure, the Heels didn’t have Ed Davis, and this might have been Wake’s best outside shooting night of the season.  But this is North Carolina.  At home.  What can you say about this team at this point?  Is Roy about to lose them?  It’s been an incredible three-year run.  But sometimes after such a period of sustained success, when hard times arrive it can be easy for a young team to fold.  They’re 12-7 and 1-3 in the ACC, have twelve games left, with seven of them away.  A split does not get them in.  The Heels have six days off, and it’s a good time for it.  They have a lot to think about.  It’s soul-searching time.

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Boom Goes The Dynamite: 01.20.10 Edition

Posted by jstevrtc on January 20th, 2010

HOLY GUS JOHNSON, there’s a lot of college basketball on tonight.  We usually do our hoops-watchin’ live blog on Saturdays and the occasional Sunday, but we got such a nice response from last week’s special Wednesday edition that we’re going to fire it up again tonight.  We’ll start off focusing on Wake Forest vs UNC and Georgetown vs Pittsburgh.  We’ve got RTC Live going on at Michigan at Wisconsin.  So join us, send us some comments, tell us what’s on your TV, and enjoy the hoops with us.  Because it starts in, like, ninety seconds…

7:02 pm ET: JStev here at RTC’s Southern Compound, and we’re starting off with Wake at UNC, but we’ve got quite a selection already.  So I guess this game is one of those announcer-trade things.  ESPN’s NBA announcers are calling this one.  I don’t know if I’m liking this.  We might get to Pitt/G’town earlier than expected…

7:16: …AND, we’re there.  Faster pace, two ranked teams, and fewer people get the U so this will actually help more folks tuning in.  See?  We’re all about helping people at RTC.  Boy, Georgetown looks comfortable early.  That last move by Greg Monroe was quite tasty.  NBA quality drop step and lay-in, wow.  Up six early.

7:24: Just flashed over to Wake/UNC and L.D. Williams just THREW DOWN an alley-oop, following a three and a previous dunk by Al-Farouq Aminu.  I know it’s mid-first half, but has UNC lost their mystique?  Teams just look more confident against them this year, steadier.  Back on G’town/Pitt, Gilbert Brown was going out of bounds and threw the ball off of Jerelle Benimon, and hit him right in the misters.  Looks OK, though.

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