1. In yesterday’s Morning 5 we mentioned that Kansas and UNC had very good days as each school retained two players who very easily could have declared for the NBA Draft. Unfortunately, Kansas was not as lucky yesterday as Marcus and Markieff Morris declared for the NBA Draft and signed with an agent. So the Jayhawks will have some holes to start the season on the interior, but most realistic fans expected the Morris twins to be gone since both are most likely lottery picks in the upcoming NBA Draft. Meanwhile, Tar Heel fans are still waiting on a decision from Harrison Barnes. We are still amazed that Barnes, the consensous #1 pick entering the season and still a guaranteed top five pick if he were to come out this season, might come back for his sophomore year, but it appears as if Barnes is still undecided and some mock drafts him entering the NBA after another season in Chapel Hill.
2. In a move that won’t register with most college basketball fans directly but will impact nearly all of their programs indirectly, St. Patrick High coach Kevin Boyle has decided to move from New Jersey down to Florida to take a similar position at Montverde Academy. Boyle, who coached at St. Patrick for 23 years, made the program a national power that finished 2nd in the nation this year. Despite that, Boyle has often had to toil in the rather large shadow of Bob Hurley Sr. who coaches at nearby St. Anthony’s but Boyle was clearly one of the most respected high school coaches in the nation. Judging by the quotes from one of his seniors it appears that there were many in the program who were very unhappy with the decision. In Montverde, Boyle will be taking over a program that is quite succesful even if it is not quite at the level of St. Patrick historically.
3. La Salle sophomore Aaric Murray announced that he would be transferring after a difficult season where he and John Giannini clashed often to the detriment of the team. It is unclear where Murray intends to transfer, but there will be no shortage of teams interested in the talents of a player who averaged 15.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in the Atlantic 10 last season.
4. Many of us enjoyed Mike Bruesewitz‘s hair this season (you may remember his crazy red mop from Wisconsin games this season), but we won’t be seeing it again for the near future.  His hair is gone for a good cause, as the Badger forward had his head shaved by Jon Leuer on local television to raise money to fight multiple sclerosis. His goal was to raise $3,100 (he wears #31) and has already exceeded that amount by $424 at the time this post was written. We can only hope that he decides on an equally interesting hair style when his hair grows out again.
5. In the wake of UConn‘s historic run through the Big East Tournament then the NCAA Tournament, Andy Glockner compiled a list of the 10 best post-season runs since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. His choice for #1 will probably surprise you and will likely start a healthy debate. We did something similar although a bit more intensive two years ago when we created a fantasy bracket for the same era, but instead of just looking at each team’s post-season we included their regular seasons as well.

The 2010-11 season just concluded — we are just as sad as you guys are — but rather than get all nostalgic, teary-eyed, and lament the next  seven months without college basketball, let’s look towards the future. That’s right, folks, hot off the presses: the first 2011-12 Top 25. Our assumptions on who is staying/leaving are within the team breakdowns.

1. North Carolina—The Heels have a whole lot coming back and lose next to nothing. Harrison Barnes looked like the stud he was advertised in the preseason as he developed into Carolina’s top player down the stretch, and Kendall Marshall flourished at the point guard position once he was given the keys to the car. It sure doesn’t hurt that a couple McDonald’s All-Americans will be joining the program next year, either. Look for Roy Williams to be significantly happier next season than he was for much of this season.
   

   Roy Williams should be in a good mood next season

2. Syracuse—Jim Boeheim’s squad returns virtually all the pieces to the puzzle — a puzzle that certainly went unfinished this year — and the Orange look like they may be the top dog in the Big East next season. Scoop Jardine has the ability to be one of the top guards in the BE and Kris Joseph is a very explosive scorer, who should continue to develop in the offseason. The development of Fab Melo is an absolute must in the offseason, though, if this team wants to reach its potential.
3. Kentucky—With the instability of the NBA next year, the Wildcats may be fortunate enough to hang onto their young stars for at least another season. Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones are all NBA talents and all three of them could enter the NBA Draft, but if even one of them returns, this team will be very dangerous, particularly with the class that John Calipari is bringing in, which might be one of the best assembled in the past ten years. If two of those three return to play with that class, this team immediately becomes the favorite to cut down the nets next April.
4. Ohio State—Will he stay or will he go? Obviously, we are referring to Jared Sullinger’s decision to remain a Buckeye for another year. While graduation will claim Jon Diebler and David Lighty, there is still ample talent returning to help the Buckeyes take care of some unfinished business. William Buford could be the X-factor that determines just how good the Buckeyes will be.
5. Louisville—The coaching prowess of Rick Pitino and his most important assistant Ralph Willard was a thing of beauty this year. Not much was expected out of the Cardinals, but the ‘Ville had an exceptional season up until their Tournament collapse to Morehead State. Loftier goals will be set for Louisville next year with Preston Knowles the only player departing. The Cardinals might not have quite as publicized a recruiting class as their in-state rivals, but still have one of the top incoming classes in America. Read the rest of this entry »

After another weekend of scintillating and shocking NCAA Tournament results, it’s time to check back in with our various correspondents who were in Anaheim, San Antonio, New Orleans and Newark reporting on the games this weekend.

Location: New Orleans, LA
Round: Regional Final
Teams: Florida, Butler
Date: 26 March 2011
Correspondent: John Stevens

To read all the diaries throughout the NCAA Tournament, click here.

There are only two possible options, and either one makes Brad Stevens look like a genius.

Here’s the situation. There are nine and a half minutes left in the Butler/Florida game and the Gators are starting to separate themselves a little. The Butler faithful — many of whom comprise the entire section behind the Bulldogs’ bench and have stood far more than they’ve sat in their seats during the game — haven’t been up for a while, and they’re starting to squirm in those chairs because they can feel it getting out of hand. So naturally, if you’re Brad Stevens, this is the time you saunter down to the end of the bench and put in — who else? — a kid who had scored a grand total of 29 points all season, had only played in 19 of the team’s games, and who averaged less than half an assist. If the sarcasm isn’t coming through, here, what we really mean to say is…are you kidding with this? And yet, what did Crishawn Hopkins do when Stevens tapped him with this most improbable of opportunities? Hit a cutting Matt Howard down the middle for a beautiful assist — immediately contributing more than twice his average in that category — and then hit a huge three, raising his yearly scoring output to 32 points. Sure, he committed a turnover moments later, and he was subbed out, but he changed everything. He provided that lift that comes when a kid who you never expected to come through ends up playing well; when that happens, the crowd gets back into the game and teammates who play the majority of minutes start playing with higher confidence. So, hands up, who predicted Crishawn Hopkins would turn out to be one of the most important players of the NCAA Tournament? When Hopkins sat down after being subbed out, he received a pretty loud ovation from the crowd. In fact, there was only one other player in this region who enjoyed a similar applause when he was removed from his game. It was Jimmer Fredette ending his career.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

Southeast

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• Often overlooked due to the star power that Ohio State has accumulated during his career, David Lighty has been the heart and soul of this season’s Buckeyes. The fifth-year senior will leave Columbus with three Big Ten championships, an NIT championship, and four trips to the NCAA Tournament.
• Kentucky head coach John Calipari believes that other programs “Want to be us. Not beat us.” While that statement may seem a bit arrogant, it does make sense when thinking about the pageantry and tradition that goes along with the Wildcat basketball program.
• While he does provide Marquette with some scoring, swingman Jimmy Butler prides himself on being a defensive stopper for the Golden Eagles. His coach, Buzz Williams, calls Butler, “the smartest player I’ve ever coached.” High, high praise.
• North Carolina junior center Tyler Zeller has finally been healthy all season after missing significant time during his first two seasons. A healthy Zeller has been beneficial to the Tar Heels, as he has contributed 15.2 points per game along with 7.1 rebounds. Without Zeller’s presence in the post, UNC would probably not be a Sweet 16-caliber team.
• Despite already having a tremendous season, Kentucky freshman guard Brandon Knight believes he is just finally living up to the high expectations that come with playing point guard for John Calipari. Interesting enough is that those expectations are not from Calipari, but from Knight himself.

Southeast

• Growing up in the shadow of Gene Keady and Bob Knight has not turned Butler head coach Brad Stevens into the same type of loose cannon as the two legendary coaches. Instead, Stevens is known for his calm, steady, and studious approach that he takes to coaching the game of basketball.
• Wisconsin point guard Jordan Taylor has been an elite performer all season for the Badgers. This is not surprising when considering that the junior craves for pressure situations where he can showcase his bravado.
• Florida senior forward Chandler Parsons has gone through quite the maturation process, which has allowed him to fulfill his vast potential. Despite his success, Parsons continues to raise expectations for his team and himself.
• There is not a team in the nation that is held to the strict honor code that Brigham Young is held to. Despite the loss of big man Brandon Davies due to a violation of this code, the rest of the Cougars have learned to live by its precepts and focus primarily on winning basketball games.
• After resting his ankle earlier in the week, Florida sophomore guard Kenny Boynton believes he is “100 percent” for Thursday’s game with Brigham Young. Boynton will be an important player for the Gators in slowing down the BYU guard attack.

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After three days of quiet, it’s time to get serious about figuring out this national championship thing.  Sixteen to twelve… let’s check out tonight’s games.

#2 San Diego State vs. #3 Connecticut – West Regional Semifinal (at Anaheim, CA) – 7:15 pm ET on CBS.

Does Fisher Have Another Final Four Run in Him?

One of these teams has won two national championships. The other just got done winning their first two NCAA Tournament games ever. While the Aztecs have had a great breakout season and now stand at 34-2 on the season, UConn has won 44 Tournament games in the Jim Calhoun era alone. Luckily for SDSU, past performances in the Big Dance need have no impact on this year’s games. If you throw out the bloodlines for the two programs, you’ll find that we have the makings for what should be an excellent game. We’ve got star power on both ends of the court, with UConn’s point guard Kemba Walker a candidate for the National Player of the Year and SDSU’s Kawhi Leonard an All-American candidate. We’ve got big name coaches with national championships and Final Four experience, as Calhoun will be matched up with Steve Fisher, who won one title at Michigan in ’89, then got back to the title game in both ’92 and ’93. We’ve got an impressive freshman class including Shabazz Napier, Roscoe Smith, and Jeremy Lamb on the UConn side matched up with three starting seniors on the Aztec squad. In short, we’ve got all the trappings of a serious battle. For the Aztecs, the big goal is going to be slowing Kemba Walker. While SDSU has had plenty of experience at trying to slow another high-scoring point guard (one Jimmer Fredette – you may have heard of him), Walker is a different challenge for SDSU, as he is a quicker, shiftier guard than Fredette, and a guy who you’d rather have shooting the three than challenging his defenders off the dribble. As a result, it is likely that D.J. Gay and/or Chase Tapley will get the majority of minutes tasked with defending Walker, while frontcourt players like Leonard, Billy White and Malcolm Thomas will be left to keep one eye on Walker while trying to body-up the Huskies’ athletic offensive rebounders up front. The SDSU frontcourt will also have to provide the majority of the scoring, and given that they haven’t seen a team as big, long and bouncy as the Huskies, they’ll need to prove that their opponents’ size does not bother them. The Aztecs figure to have plenty of support from their fans, who only need to drive about an hour north to attend the game, but they’ll need to prove that their shaky performance down the stretch in Saturday’s game against Temple was an aberration rather than the norm. Until they can close out a game in the NCAA Tournament with confidence, we’re not sure they’re trustworthy against a big-time foe.

The RTC Certified Pick: Connecticut

#2 Florida vs. #3 BYU – Southeast Region Semifinals (at New Orleans, LA) – 7:27 pm ET on TBS.

Looking at this game on paper, it’s pretty hard to find any discernible differences between these two teams. The main determinant of this game will likely be tempo. BYU would love nothing more than to get the Gators caught up in a fast-paced game, forcing them to recklessly throw up ill-advised three pointers leading to long rebounds and many Cougar runouts. Dave Rose’s team excels in transition with Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery leading the charge. While Emery is certainly a terrific point guard, his biggest impact on this game could come defensively. He’ll guard Florida’s Erving Walker in all likelihood and that could be a major problem for the 5’8 Walker. Emery’s length and quickness has the potential to disrupt the Florida floor general, plus the BYU senior ranks #15 individually in steal percentage. If Walker can’t get the offense flowing, Florida may result to lots of isolations and quick shots, certainly not ideal for a team that does its best work at a slower pace in the half court. The Gators have a big advantage inside and have to use it to win. Billy Donovan needs to keep Kenny Boynton, expected to play after spraining his ankle against UCLA, in check and make sure his guards work the ball inside to Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons and Alex Tyus. This could very well be the game where the loss of Brandon Davies dooms BYU for good. The Cougars rank a paltry #222 in offensive rebounding percentage so Florida should hold a significant edge on the glass. BYU has been out-rebounded in four of their seven games without Davies and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Defensively, Florida has to keep Fredette off the free throw line and force him to make outside shots. It’s alright for the Gators if Jimmer drains more than a few bombs but he’s most dangerous when he can get into the lane and to the stripe, or create for others when defenders are drawn to him inside. Florida ranks #15 in defensive free throw rate and will have to keep that up against Fredette specifically. We have to wonder if Donovan will assign Parsons the task of defending Fredette. Parsons is a big man (6’9) but he’s fairly quick for his size and can bother Jimmer with his superior length. Quickness will be the issue because Fredette possess a terrific first step to blow by opponents. The Cougars will have an edge at the line if this is a close game since Florida struggles as a team (67%). It should be a terrific matchup but a slight edge has to go to the Gators in New Orleans this evening.

The RTC Certified Pick: Florida.

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Sixteen teams with visions of glory dancing through their heads.  But only one can be left standing twelve days from now at around 11:30 pm ET on the hardwood court at Reliant Stadium in Houston.  Everyone has their own opinions on which teams will remain after this coming weekend and those most likely to ultimately cut the nets down, but we here at RTC are always interested in knowing what the people who make it their job to set gambling markets have to say. 

To that end, here’s what one online sportsbook has to say about the odds for each of the sixteen remaining teams to win the national title.  We’ll have a few brief comments after the table (note: the arrows represent how the odds are trending, where up is more of a favorite, down is less of one).

Some QnD Thoughts:

• We’ve been tracking the odds this week and it’s interesting that Duke is dropping even with the news that Kyrie Irving will play significant minutes and there’s a reasonable expectation that he could make the Blue Devils a much more dangerous team quickly.  The oddsmakers are also boffo on Florida State this week, as they’ve risen a full percentage point over the past couple of days (that may not seem like much, but in the world of futures, it’s a significant increase). 
• The top three teams are #1 seeds and obvious favorites, but things start to break down a little bit after the first two #2 seeds, SDSU and Florida.  North Carolina is behind a couple of #4 seeds, Kentucky and Wisconsin, while #3 BYU is getting worse odds than #10 Florida State!  Did the Seminoles just sign Sam Cassell or something over the last couple of days?
• It’s somewhat surprising to see #8 Butler so low after knocking off #1 Pittsburgh and of course the distinct memory of how close the Bulldogs came last year to cutting the nets down.  Last year isn’t this year, of course, but many of the same players are there, and so is Brad Stevens; furthermore, with games against #4 Wisconsin and/or #2 Florida/#3 BYU, there’s nobody in that region with the ability to simply overwhelm BU.
• We think #12 Richmond at the bottom of the odds may in fact be a better team than #11 Marquette and #11 VCU, but those two teams don’t have to play top-seed Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen.  This indicates that there’s probably as much weight given to the path in front of a team as there is to its actual record, seeding and historical performance from this season.
• Speaking of which, #5 Arizona is the third-lowest team on this list, and not all that much higher than Richmond!  This must have a lot to do with the fact that, according to the odds, three of the six most likely teams to win the title are located in the West Region along with the Wildcats.
• If you normalize the odds to equal 100%, then according to the oddsmakers, the three #1 seeds have a roughly 61% chance to win it all.  The rest of the field correspondingly has a 39% chance.  We’re just not sure that the #1 seeds are that much better than the rest of the field this year.  If you’re looking for value, it might be worth a look at those #2-#4 seeds. 

The Spiders Perhaps Weren't As Much of a Surprise After All

One eight seed made the Sweet Sixteen. The rest of the Sweet Sixteen party crashers? Two eleven seeds, a ten, and a twelve, including Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond. If you tally up the rest of the seeds, this looks pretty much like Silver’s predicted distribution. The structural inequalities of the bracket should have told us to expect more second round (excuse me, “third round” upsets) from the seeds in the 10-12 range. Of course, are these even really upsets? The Pittsburgh loss to Butler was a genuine shock but the rest of the “upsets” really seem to fall upon the coin flip in the flat part of the s-curve.  Silver notes that the composite computer “power ratings” show essentially the same difference between first and second seeds as between the fifth and thirteenth seeds. What this means is what we knew all along: the best teams are in a whole separate class from the bulk of the teams in the tournament, while the majority of teams are at close to the same level. This is a long way to get to this essential point: We shouldn’t be surprised to see VCU, Richmond, Marquette or Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen.

We also shouldn’t act like the bracket design is done affecting who makes the Final Four and who wins the championship.  Ken Pomeroy was quick to run the log5 probabilities of the remaining sixteen and had some interesting findings. While you would think that winning two games would have increased every team’s chances of winning it all, you’d only be mostly right. San Diego State and Kentucky actually saw their chances at a championship drop as the biggest obstacles in their path to the championship refused to be upset. Conversely, Kansas’s location in the decimated Southwest Region has made them a near-prohibitive favorite to make the Final Four. Likewise, Pittsburgh’s ignoble fall in an already weak Southeast Region has given the Wisconsin Badgers a real shot at a championship. The Badgers’ calculated chances of winning it all went from a mere 2.5% to 9.5%. Of course, technically, that’s a tiny increase in proportion to the change in VCU’s chances. The Rams went from having a 0.0005% chance at a championship to a 0.2% chance at winning the big one. While those are still long odds, their chances of winning increased 400-fold. So that’s worth something.

Read the rest of this entry »

Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

Southeast

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

On Tuesday, 68 teams still had hopes of reaching college basketball’s pinnacle on April 4 in Houston.

Over a week later, 68 have been whittled down to 16. Whether it’s heavy favorite Ohio State dispatching of their inferiors without breaking a sweat or VCU stunning the hoops world with their thrashings of Georgetown and Purdue, each of the 16 preparing for this weekend’s games have taken alternate routes to this point. Regardless of location, draw or circumstance, this select few is thrilled to still have a pulse.

Let’s delve into each Sweet 16 participant from two polar opposite points of view: the indelible optimist and the hopeless pessimist.  Everywhere from Lawrence to Richmond, fan bases are filled with those that see the glass half full and those that view the glass half empty. The optimist will take the viewpoint that their favorite team is destined for Houston while the pessimist sees the bitter end approaching Thursday (Friday’s teams posted tomorrow):

Did Kemba save some magic for the Aztecs?

Connecticut

Optimist: We have the best late-game scorer in the country, a weapon that’s simply uncontrollable with the shot clock winding down and the chips on the table. Unlike the Kemba Walker show that dominated the early months of the schedule, our secondary pieces continue to grow and mature tremendously. Alex Oriakhi has posted three double-digit scoring and rebounding games in our last five contests, Jeremy Lamb is reliable scoring option #2 and Shabazz Napier allows Walker an opportunity to create scoring looks off the ball. Nobody is hotter or brimming with more confidence than my Huskies, who have won seven in a row against #6 seeds or better.

Pessimist: Fatigue has to start to wear on a team consisting of mostly freshmen and sophomores that haven’t been through the rigors. Thursday’s game will mark the tenth game they’ve played in the month of March only. Kemba Walker has rested a grand total of 21 minutes in that brutal stretch. Running on adrenaline can only take him so far; eventually, his legs are going to give and his jump shot will certainly follow. The bruising nature of the San Diego State frontcourt will surely intimidate the inconsistent Oriakhi and we simply lack the depth to match the likes of Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and Kawhi Leonard should he disappear or pick up two early fouls. SDSU also ranks in the top 25 in both two point and three point FG defense. Our pedestrian numbers on the season- 47% from two and 33% from three- will only exacerbate that strength.

San Diego State

Optimist: This team matches up phenomenally with Connecticut and Duke. If Oriakhi disappears like he has in the past, Calhoun has to rely on Charles Okwandu or Tyler Olander and that’ll be their death sentence. Frankly, the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly aren’t a concern. Our bread and butter all season has been defense; with Leonard and D.J. Gay struggling to find their shots late in the season and against Temple, we simply locked down on the other end. UConn hasn’t faced a physical defense like ours since Pittsburgh and there’s no Gary McGhee on this roster that’s a liability switching against ball screens for Walker. We can also throw our steady, dependable senior guard Gay at Walker and make his life plenty more difficult. Our main weakness is three-point shooting and UConn was middle of the pack in the Big East at defending the outside shot.

Pessimist: Did you watch that game against Temple? The second half exemplifies the scoring struggles this team has exhibited all season. We have nobody to drain perimeter jump shots lately with Gay struggling and Fisher unable to compromise our defense and play James Rahon extended minutes. We just don’t have a reliable scoring threat at the end of shot clocks to match the wits of Walker and I can easily envision a devastating lull offensively late in the second half of a tight ballgame. It’s not like UConn won’t be prepared for a physical, athletic defense. They’ve only seen it all year long in the bloodbath that can be the Big East, and, counting the postseason, they’ve won 15 of those duels. The way Leonard was disrupted by the length of Lavoy Allen was deeply concerning and makes me think that Roscoe Smith could do the same for the Huskies.

Duke

Optimist: When Coach K hinted that Kyrie Irving may play limited minutes against Hampton, we immediately became the national title favorite. I was scared to death of Texas; with Joseph and Balbay they can throw two outstanding perimeter defenders at Nolan Smith and Irving and I had zero confidence in Miles and Mason Plumlee containing Tristan Thompson down low. Arizona is a much easier assignment. Their guard play is mediocre offensively and they’ll become well-acquainted with the workings of both Smith and Irving on the defensive end. We’re so much Arizona’s superior defensively it’s not even comparable, another reason why Texas did us an enormous favor by blowing that game. San Diego State doesn’t have the backcourt to survive against our foursome and Nolan Smith can match Walker point-for-point late if Connecticut comes calling. We went 5-20 from three and beat an ultra-confident Michigan team, showing those handful of games where we were dependent on making threes to win are in the past, especially with Irving back in the fold.

Pessimist: I may be in the minority, but I’m not convinced Irving returning is the best thing for this team. Coach K even admitted that he coached two Duke’s this season: one in November with Irving and one the rest of the season without. Now we’re going to transition impeccably back to November Duke without missing a beat? I was much more confident in our ability to score with Smith controlling the basketball at the point and utilizing ball screens at the top of the key. I’m worried about Derrick Williams completely taking  Singler out of his game. Kyle has scored 12 per game in his last four and even missed three straight free throws on Sunday. We may not need him against Arizona, but beating either San Diego State or Connecticut without Singler’s services is a stretch.

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