Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

• Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
• Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
• UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
• Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
• BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
• Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

Last Four In: Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Colorado, USC, VCU, Missouri State.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Connecticut, Arizona, Xavier
  
• 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Illinois, Gonzaga
• 10 Seeds: Villanova, Washington, Marquette, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Alabama, UAB
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes from 3/8:

• Marquette moved into lock status with their win over Providence on Tuesday night.
• Butler’s defeat of Milwaukee opened up another at-large spot which went to Alabama. They are now the last team in.
• Villanova moved down from a #7 seed to a #10 seed with their fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Their total body of work keeps them safely in the field of 68.

David Ely is an RTC Contributor.

Introduction

Congrats are in order for the following teams that locked up automatic NCAA berths this week: St. Peter’s (MAAC), Old Dominion (CAA), Wofford (SoCon), Gonzaga (WCC), Indiana State (MVC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun) and UNC-Asheville (Big South). It’s always fun watching these teams celebrate their conference championships because the excitement just feels more honest than, say, when an Ohio State or a Pittsburgh wins its conference tournament. Championship Week is great for television purposes because there are so many great games to watch, but there usually is less urgency among the teams from the major conferences. For them, conference tournaments are about posturing for seeds and surviving the weekend injury-free. Roy Williams once called the ACC Tournament a big cocktail party, and it’s not surprising that his two title teams both bowed out in the semifinals.  

What We Learned 

Davies Will Obviously Be Missed, But Charles Abouo's Emergence Has Mitigated the Sting

If you’re a big time recruit and have BYU in your top five, you might want to reconsider your stance on the Cougars. Seriously, why would a player with options want to go to BYU now that its draconian honor code system is in the national spotlight. By now, everyone knows Brandon Davies (BYU’s third leading scorer and leading rebounder) was suspended from the BYU basketball team for allegedly having premarital sex with his girlfriend. Davies’ suspension is a crushing blow for the Cougars, who have gone from a sexy popular national title pick to a team some think won’t make it out of the first weekend.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Richmond, Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Old Dominion, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Temple, Tennessee
• 9 Seeds: UNLV, Utah State, Florida State, Illinois
• 10 Seeds: Gonzaga, Washington, Marquette, Richmond
• 11 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Milwaukee, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, North Texas, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
• 2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
• 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia
• 5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut
• 6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati
• 7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple
• 9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington
• 10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga
• 11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee
  
• 14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island
• 16 Seeds: Northern Colorado, Middle Tennessee, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Note:

• Connecticut and Xavier switched seeds due to the amount of Big East teams in the field.
• Michigan and Clemson switched seeds to avoid two ACC teams facing each other in the First Four round.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (last updated after Sunday’s games)

Locks: 36

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 10

Currently In The Field: Marquette, Gonzaga, Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, USC, Baylor.

S-Curve (italics indicated automatic bids)

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

2 Seeds: Duke, BYU, Texas, San Diego State

3 Seeds: Florida, Purdue, North Carolina, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John’s, West Virginia

5 Seeds: Kentucky, Georgetown, Arizona, Connecticut

6 Seeds: Xavier, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Villanova, Missouri, Old Dominion

8 Seeds: George Mason, UCLA, Tennessee, Temple

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, Florida State, Washington

10 Seeds: Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Gonzaga

11 Seeds: Richmond, Butler, Georgia, Michigan

12 Seeds: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, UAB, Belmont

13 Seeds: Harvard, Oakland, Charleston, Milwaukee

14 Seeds: Indiana State, Bucknell, Iona, Morehead State

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Kent State, Boston University, Long Island

16 Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

The final Saturday of the regular season is also the best of the year. Epic would be one way to describe the schedule today. Bids will be clinched, bubbles will burst and conference titles will be decided. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

#2 Kansas @ #21 Missouri in progress on CBS (****)

It's Title Time (Again) For Markieff and KU, Though We Don't Expect the Tigers To Go Quietly

The Jayhawks can clinch the Big 12 title with a win here or a Texas loss at Baylor this evening. Through Texas’ surge and preseason projections brandishing Kansas State and Baylor, we learned one thing in this conference in 2010-11: the conference title goes through Lawrence until proven otherwise. Missouri will be in the NCAA Tournament win or lose, but a win here would really improve their seeding and give them confidence heading into the postseason. The Tigers are a different team at home and should give KU all they’ve have in front of their raucous crowd and a national television audience, looking to complete their home slate undefeated. Kansas will need to protect the ball and dominate in the paint and on the glass in order to win on the road. Missouri’s preference for a quick pace means rebounding is a vulnerability, and the Morris twins should be able to pull down a lot of missed shots assuming they stay out of foul trouble.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bracket Math (italics indicates automatic bid)

Locks: 34

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 12

Currently In The Field: Florida State, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

Last Four In: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson

First Four Out: Alabama, Colorado, Baylor, Colorado State

Next Four Out: Nebraska, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Memphis

1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke

2 Seeds: BYU, Notre Dame, Texas, Purdue

3 Seeds: San Diego State, Florida, Louisville, Syracuse

4 Seeds: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgetown, St. John’s

5 Seeds: Connecticut, Kentucky, West Virginia, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds: Arizona, Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State

7 Seeds: Cincinnati, George Mason, Texas A&M, Missouri

8 Seeds: Old Dominion, Tennessee, Temple, Washington

9 Seeds: Utah State, UNLV, UCLA, Florida State

10 Seeds: Marquette, Illinois, Saint Mary’s, Georgia

11 Seeds: Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College

12 Seeds: Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson, UAB, Missouri State

13 Seeds: Belmont, Oakland, Princeton, Charleston

14 Seeds: Milwaukee, Bucknell, Coastal Carolina, Vermont

15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Fairfield, Kent State, Murray State

16 Seeds: Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist at Rush the Court.

The number of available bubble spots is closing by the day as more teams win bid-clinching games and move into lock status. Here’s the current situation following Wednesday night’s action (* = own league’s automatic bid)

Current Bubble Picture

Locks- 32

Non-At Large Automatic Bids- 22

Spots Remaining- 14

Currently In The Field (in order from safest to Last Four In): Florida State, Tennessee, Washington, Marquette, Illinois, Georgia, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Butler, Michigan, Richmond, Clemson.

First Four Out: Alabama, Baylor, Colorado, Colorado State.

Also Considered: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UAB*, Memphis.

Kim English, Ricardo Ratliffe and Missouri will be dancing

New Locks

Kansas State 21-9 (9-6), 21 RPI, 5 SOS– Left for dead one month ago, Kansas State has gone from NIT-bound to in the field on the first week of March. Their gutsy win in Austin over Texas paired with their Valentine’s Day blowout of Kansas clinched a bid for Jacob Pullen and Co. The Wildcats also have wins over Missouri, Gonzaga and Virginia Tech on the season, haven’t suffered a loss to a sub-100 RPI team and their power ratings keep skyrocketing by the day. With only Iowa State at home left on the slate, Kansas State is shaping up to be a single-digit seed come tournament time.

Old Dominion 24-6 (14-4), 27 RPI, 80 SOS– Everyone talks about smoking hot George Mason, but reigning CAA champion Old Dominion has quietly won 10 of 11 contests to sew up their spot in the bracket. The Monarchs played the 15^th-hardest non-conference schedule, defeated that George Mason team back on January 8 and also downed Xavier, Clemson and Richmond. ODU only has one bad loss on their schedule in the CAA opener at Delaware. That conference has a chance to push three teams into the NCAA Tournament if Hofstra, Drexel, VCU or James Madison embarks on a deep run in Richmond.

Missouri 22-8 (8-7), 31 RPI, 73 SOS– The definition of a lock is that even if said team loses all of their games left, they’d still be included in the NCAA Tournament. A beneficiary of both lack of days remaining in the schedule and the weakest bubble in memory, there’s just no chance the Tigers slip behind all of those bubble teams to the NIT even if they lose their final two contests against Kansas at home and in their first Big 12 Tournament game. Despite the possibility of finishing 22-10 (8-9), Missouri did beat Vanderbilt, Illinois and Old Dominion out-of-conference along with Kansas State and Baylor in league play. The Tigers have overcome their 1-7 mark in league games to warrant lock status.

UCLA 21-8 (12-4), 35 RPI, 50 SOS– After a one year absence, the Bruins can put on their dancing shoes once again. UCLA needed to beat Pac-10 leader Arizona in their home finale to clinch a bid and completed the task with gusto, winning by 22 points. Couple that win with crucial non-conference victories over #3 RPI BYU and #14 RPI St. John’s and the Bruins can feel safe about their tournament odds. Ben Howland’s team can really improve their seed and make their conference rivals increasingly nervous with a road win tonight at Washington.

Cincinnati 23-7 (10-7), 34 RPI, 97 SOS– If there was any lingering doubt remaining regarding Cincinnati’s tournament hopes, last night’s win at Marquette eliminated those concerns. The Bearcats rode another strong defensive effort to lock up their tenth Big East victory with Georgetown at home to close out the campaign, a game they’ll be playing for seeding purposes only. The Bearcats now have Big East road wins at Georgetown, St. John’s and Marquette to go along with home victories over Louisville and Xavier. Cincinnati is 4-7 vs. the RPI top-50 and will have opportunities in the Big East Tournament to earn a single digit seed.

Currently Automatic Bids

Utah State* 26-3 (14-1), 22 RPI, 114 SOS– Utah State’s bulk number of wins has boosted their RPI, but the resume remains mostly empty due to the weak WAC. Their lone RPI top-100 wins are at St. Mary’s and Long Beach State at home with losses to BYU and Georgetown in the non-conference. The Aggies are probably in the field if they just reach the WAC Tournament finals, but leaving it up to chance is risky. They’re the heavy favorites to win that conference tournament and I’d be stunned if they repeated last year’s result and fell again. Their #111 non-conference SOS is actually an improvement from past campaigns.

Saint Mary’s* 21-7 (11-3), 49 RPI, 124 SOS– The Gaels just needed to split two crucial home dates with Utah State and Gonzaga. Instead, they blew both games and the prospect of being left out of the field of 68 just became a lot more real if another loss is ahead in the WCC Tournament. Reach the conference tournament final and the Gaels are likely in good shape, but the resume is barren. Their marquee win over St. John’s came way back in the season’s first two weeks and they lost key non-conference games to San Diego State, BYU and Vanderbilt. Will two wins over Gonzaga and that November win over the Johnnies be enough to overcome a lackluster RPI and overall resume? Randy Bennett should just play it safe and secure that auto bid.

Currently In The Field

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com. We will add to this post throughout the day as the submissions come in so keep on sending them.

Top 25 Games

• #1 Ohio State 82, Penn State 61: “Jon Diebler might have missed his first and last triple tries but he connected on 10 straight in between, pouring in a career high 30 points as the Buckeyes clinched at least a share of the B1G regular season conference title by routing Penn State 82-61 tonight in Happy Valley.” (Eleven Warriors)
• #6 Purdue 76, Illinois 67: “The game almost felt secondary tonight, as the Boiler faithful sent off 33 and 25 with many resounding Mackey cheers, as thanks for four years of dedication and hard work. Once again, the place was clearly deafening even through the TV broadcast. Let’s say that first, everyone: great work again, especially the Paint Crew who always brings it. As is always a concern on a night like this, the home team fell behind. However, it wasn’t really that Purdue was playing poorly — Illinois was just shooting the lights out and playing like the team we all thought they were capable of bring this season. Of course, that only lasted about ten minutes and then they reverted to the Illinois who resides on the bubble.” (Boiled Sports)
• #16 Florida 78, Alabama 51: “With their 78-51 victory over Alabama Tuesday night, the Gators clinched a share of their first SEC championship since 2007. The Gators (23-6, 11-3) were led by Chandler Parsons’ 19 points and 11 rebounds, as the Gators dominated the second-half following an even first half. The Gators used several second half runs to put distance between them and the SEC West champions.” (Alligator Army)
• #22 Kentucky 68, #19 Vanderbilt 66: “What a game. I have not been more nervous at any time this year. The Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores battled to the wire in Rupp Arena in a wild affair that went down to the last tick of the last second before Kentucky could claim their 15th and final home game for a perfect season in Rupp Arena. But it was by no means a perfect game.” (A Sea of Blue or Anchor of Gold)
• Nebraska 69, #21 Missouri 58: “This was the second game this season in which I was truly and completely disappointed.  The other — Oklahoma State — could be blamed, at least a bit, on ridiculous travel trouble (anytime it takes you two days to get where you’re going, you probably aren’t going to be amazingly sharp).  Missouri is 30 games through the season now, and the fact that they were able to play their worst game of the season now is, in and of itself, cause for alarm.  In each of the past three seasons, they haven’t played their best in the final week before the conference tournament, but to me, at least, this was possibly a new level.  (Then again, I probably didn’t enjoy the 25-point whipping Kansas laid on Missouri two years ago either. That ended up alright.)” (Rock M Nation)

Other Games of Interest

• Boston College 76, Virginia Tech 61: After a huge win over Duke that led some to predict that the Hokies were definitely a NCAA Tournament team they came out flat on Senior Night against the Eagles. (Tech Hoops)

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