RTC Bracketology Update: 03.10.11

Posted by zhayes9 on March 10th, 2011

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Bubble Math (updated on Thursday, 5:30 ET)

Locks: 37

Non-At Large Automatic Bids: 22

Spots Remaining: 9

Currently In The Field: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Last Four In: Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

First Four Out: Alabama, Southern Cal, VCU, UAB.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

  • 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
  • 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
  • 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Purdue, Syracuse
  • 4 Seeds: Louisville, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
  • 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Xavier
  • 6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
  • 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  • 8 Seeds: UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State
  • 9 Seeds: UNLV, Florida State, Gonzaga, Marquette
  • 10 Seeds: Illinois, Villanova, Washington, Butler
  • 11 Seeds: Colorado, Richmond, Georgia, Saint Mary’s
  • 12 Seeds: Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Belmont
  • 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  • 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  • 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  • 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Changes on 3/10:

  • Colorado moves safely into the field with their third win of the season over Kansas State. The Buffs also have wins over Texas and Missouri. Despite a mediocre RPI and poor non-conference losses, those five wins are unmatched among fellow bubble squads. Alabama is now the first team out leading up to their rematch with Georgia tomorrow.
  • Connecticut jumps up another seed line with their win over Pittsburgh. The Huskies are now 12-9 vs. Big East competition and tout an outstanding 14 wins vs. the RPI top-100. Pittsburgh’s entire body of work keeps the Panthers as the third #1 seed, but opens up the possibility of Notre Dame passing them in the coming days, a switch that would send Pitt to the Anaheim region.
  • UAB’s quarterfinal loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA Tournament drops the Blazers out of the automatic bid. Their only RPI top-50 wins are against Marshall, making it extremely unlikely the Blazers will earn a spot in the field. UTEP is now the projected auto bid from CUSA.
  • Avoiding upsets kept Georgia and Boston College in the field, but neither win boosted their position on the S-Curve.
  • BYU once again played poorly without Brandon Davies against bottom-feeder TCU. A loss in the MWC Tournament and pushes by either Florida or North Carolina in the days ahead could drop the Cougars to a #3 seed.
  • Word from Steve Lavin is that D.J. Kennedy suffered a “serious knee injury.” This may affect St. John’s seed if confirmed.

Bubble Games Tonight

  • New Mexico vs. Colorado State- Any hope the Rams have of sneaking back into bid contention begins here.
  • Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech- The same logic behind Wake-BC and Iowa-Michigan State applies here.
  • Washington State vs. Washington- With Klay Thompson back, can Wazzu knock off their rivals three times? An elimination game for the Cougars.
zhayes9 (301 Posts)


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2 Responses to “RTC Bracketology Update: 03.10.11”

  1. Patrick says:

    In your opinion Zach, if Penn State beats Indiana and then Wisconsin, which seems plausible, then are they in the tournament? Losses that could hurt them are home against Maine (how did that happen?) and home against Va Tech just because they will both be fighting for that bubble spot.

    Anyway I think if the Nittany Lions win two game then they’re worth keeping in mind for one of those play-in games, and if they win three (make the Big Ten final) then they’re easily in, right?

  2. zhayes9 says:

    Patrick-

    I just don’t think 18-13 will be enough. 2 wins over Wisconsin home + neutral and 1 win over Illinois at home is basically all they have to brag about. They have to beat Purdue in the semifinals too. Do that and the Nittany Lions would likely make it.

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