Last weekend’s Villanova loss created the only substantive movement in the RTC Top 25 this week, but we weren’t rating the Wildcats as high as everyone else anyway, so the market on Jay Wright’s team appears to have been corrected. Analysis after the jump…
It is a place where dreams happen. It is the home of Hoosiers. It is a basketball treasure tucked safely away in the Heartland of America at Butler University in Indianapolis, protected from boosters and alumni who crave a modern arena with all the trappings of money and power. It is Hinkle Fieldhouse: Home of the Butler Bulldogs. Butler will host big-time foe Ohio State Saturday afternoon at the historic old barn, dubbed by some as a venue designed as if God Himself wanted a basketball arena. The Bulldogs seek to move back into the national conversation after several losses in the past few weeks, while Ohio State looks to recover from a devastating injury to National Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner. There’s been talk around the country that the formerly nationally-ranked Bulldogs are in a no-win situation with this game. If they beat the Buckeyes – well, they should have, goes the thinking. After all, they’re at home and OSU is without its superstar, Turner. If they lose to OSU, well, that’s not good either. One thing we can say with assurance is that Butler head coach Brad Stevens is undoubtedly shooting for the first “bad” option over the second one, as right now, Butler needs nonconference Ws any way they can get them. And if Ohio State manages to go into Hinkle and steal a win without the spectacular Turner scoring, rebounding and assisting, then the Buckeyes will be viewed even better by the NCAA Selection Committee when he (hopefully) returns in February. Join us this afternoon at Hinkle for what could fairly be described as an important December game for both of these teams.
Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball. Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts from our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season. We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today. Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.
This Week’s Topic: How do you expect Ohio State to handle the loss of NPOY candidate Evan Turner for up to two months after his back injury over the weekend?
zach hayes – editor/contributor, RTC
I expect Ohio State to have an incredibly difficult time recovering from this devastating injury. No player meant more to his team than Evan Turner. Now Thad Matta is left with P.J. Hill and Jerimie Simmons at the point guard position for two months. Not only that, but Turner was the Buckeyes’ best passer and their most reliable rebounder. Turner will likely miss six crucial games – at Butler, at West Virginia in the non-conference and four Big Ten road games in 21 days against tournament teams in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Purdue. Without Turner, the Buckeyes will probably be decided underdogs in all six of these games which could have garnered quality wins on their resume. Unless Jon Diebler and William Buford get extremely hot from outside, Ohio State could be trending more towards the bubble than the top-15 the rest of the way.
john stevens – editor/contributor, RTC
I’m not sounding the death knell on Ohio State just yet. Obviously they’re better with Evan Turner, but this is where that whole Thad Matta recruiting prowess comes into play. This is a deep team of talented players, illustrated by the fact that they have ten guys who average over ten minutes a game. They know the value of shot selection, as they’re currently second in the nation in FG%. Jon Diebler has played excellent basketball so far, and now guys like William Buford, Jeremie Simmons, and Dallas Lauderdale will have to play a few more minutes and hit a couple more shots. But I’m putting the spotlight squarely on David Lighty. When he went down last year, it really hurt this team, but they carried on. This is his chance to pay them back. Diebler and Lighty are still a tough duo and, assuming Turner doesn’t come back early, only have to get to early February without him. Then, Turner will return to a squad of more empowered players. Certainly they’d love to have him now, but if Matta convinces his team to use the Turner injury as a rallying point, they could be even tougher come March.
The Top 10 is still fairly static after five weeks of polling, but we’re seeing all kinds of movement in and out at the bottom of the poll on a week-to-week basis. Analysis after the jump…
The sports world may have told us that this was a college football weekend, but we know better, right?
CHEERS
That Kentucky vs. UNC is Meaningful Again. Now that John Calipari is at Kentucky and his Cats are ranked in the Top 10 with a legitimate shot at postseason glory for the first time in a long while, it’s good to have this game on the early-season schedule. UK rode a masterful 28-2 run to build an early 19-point lead behind John Wall’s 16/5/7 assts even though he spent much of the game cramping up, and the record crowd of 24k+ at Rupp Arena loved it… until UNC got their young legs settled in the second half, and a late 12-1 run got the Heels within one bucket with 0:33 remaining. Eric Bledsoe and John Wall made five pressure-filled FTs to close it out 68-66 and UK moved to 8-0 on the season while UNC fell to 7-2. One thing was clear, though — both of these teams are going to get a lot better before March – can we set a rematch in Indy on Semifinal Saturday four months from now?
Oregon State. For putting an end to the discussion that was already gurgling (ahem) about the Pac-10 getting swept in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series. The Beavers defeated Colorado 74-69 on Friday night to give the Pac-10 its first win in the Series, and through the weekend games, only Cal’s dominant home victory over Iowa State was the other. The Big 12 now leads 8-2 in the matchup, and with two games remaining at Pac-10 venues, we’re still not coinvinced that the league will get another win (Oklahoma State @ Stanford & Texas A&M @ Washington).
Reggie Jackson. It didn’t count, but lordy… Jackson damn near brough the entire world down with this ridiculous dunk (below) at the end of the BC-Miami (FL) game on Sunday. Still, Jackson dropped 18/9 in a conference opener for both teams that showed both of these teams will be heard from in the ACC this season. BC dominated the glass 43-19, but it was Jackson’s FTs (not a dunk) with three seconds remaining that gave BC the home win to go to 1-0 in league play.
Dunk to Win. How about a dunk that did count? On Saturday afternoon, Ole Miss’ Eniel Polynice broke free for a throwdown right before the buzzer that ended up being the winning margin, 81-79, over Southern Miss. This was the capper on a wild game that saw the 7-1 Rebels come back from six pts down in the final minute to take the lead and win the game on that dunk. We’ve yet to find online video of this play but it’s really impressive, so if someone finds it a link to the dunk only, please let us know. Chris Warren added 20/6 assts for Ole Miss, while Gary Flowers contributed 20/8 for Southern Miss. Afterwards, USM coach Larry Eustachy found time to throw Mississippi State coach Rick Stansbury under the bus for not playing his team. Good times.
JEERS
Gravity. If you haven’t heard by now, Ohio State superstar Evan Turner took a nasty spill after attempting a dunk in the first few minutes of the Buckeyes’ 111-60 mauling of Eastern Michigan on Saturday afternoon. He landed on the small of his back and broke two vertebrae which will shelve the early-season leading candidate for NPOY for at least eight weeks. Ohio State will undoubtedly have trouble recovering from his loss during that time. For a more detailed description and video of the fall, see our report from Saturday.
A 22-point Half. You probably missed this on Friday night, but we didn’t. Pitt and New Hampshire tried their best to set the game back fifty years with a wretched offensive performance during a 15-7 first half. You read that right. 15-7. The 22 combined points was the lowest for a half in the shot-clock era, which began in 1985. It may as well have been 1955, though, as Pitt won 47-32 with the two teams combining for 31% shooting and Pitt in particular getting almost all of its points from two players — 23 from Ashton Gibbs and 19 from Brad Wanamaker. In fact, the entire Pitt front line contributed a total of three points. We’re not sure what exactly caused this, guys, but let’s please not let this happen again, ok?
She Looks Different With the Lights On. Nouveaux-riche WCC powers Portland and San Diego are learning what it’s like to be Gonzaga after all these years. Just one week after one of the most successful weekends in both schools’ basketball history, the giant red target that was placed squarely on their backs is weighing down both teams. On Sunday, both teams took blowout losses at the hands of schools that were clearly fired up to get a shot at a team playing with the big boys into their arena. Portland, the media RTC darling of a week ago, lost its second straight game to a middie after finishing as the runner-up to West Virginia in the 76 Classic. Idaho ran out to a 16-pt first-half lead and never looked back, holding Portland to 32% shooting and 6-22 from deep. Things have been even worse for San Diego since returning as the runner-up in the Great Alaska Shootout. The Toreros have dropped three straight games, including Friday night’s loss to UC Riverside and a 37-pt (19% FG) stinker on Sunday at Fresno State (note: Brandon Johnson did miss the game for disciplinary reasons, but SD was still down 38 pts in this one at one time – ugh). It was Idaho’s first win over a ranked team in 27 years and Fresno’s first win in five tries. Both of these WCC teams are going to need to right the ship in home games this week (Denver and New Mexico, respectively) or be considered irrelevant by Christmas after such good starts.
Weekend Upsets.
As reported by AOL Fanhouse (is just Fanhouse now?), South Florida’s basketball program is under NCAA investigation based on multiple accusations of impropriety that the same outlet reported two weeks ago. The allegations mostly derive from excessive transportation, tickets to NBA games and ‘open’ practices during dead periods held under strength coach Terrelle Woody’s purview. Woody came to USF as part of a package deal with the well-traveled and much-maligned Gus Gilchrist, whom we still haven’t forgiven around these parts for using the tragic Virginia Tech shootings as an excuse to bail from his prep commitment to that school. Comedy springs from tragedy, though, and how funny would it be if Gilchrist’s handler ended up with his star player suspended and his employer put on probation? Of course that’s unlikely, because as often happens in these situations, at the first sign of trouble the traveling circus of Woody/Gilchrist will bolt for greener pastures leaving the angry townspeople of Tampa holding the bag.
In other encouraging news out of Stan Heath’s program, transfer guard Anthony Crater, who was set to begin play on December 13 against Central Michigan, has reportedly failed his second drug test at the school and will have to sit out 4-6 additional games, depending on how USF interprets their internal substance abuse policy. The article also notes that Crater failed a drug test while a freshman at Ohio State last year, which means that the talented but troubled point guard who has also been arrested for possession (later dropped) and suspected of involvement in theft of $8000 of property while in Tampa (but never charged) has failed three drug tests in just over a calendar year. Heath is on the record stating after Crater’s arrest for possession last January that players such as he only get so many chances: “You get chance No. 1, you get chance No. 2; at some point in time you’ve got to make adjustments that the program is bigger than what you are.”
Where does the adjustment/program size threshold start again, Coach Heath? Because, by our count, this is chance #5.
Of course, we shouldn’t be surprised. Heath also allowed another basketball vagabond/troublemaker, Mike Mercer, back onto the team this season even after he was arrested twice last year for public consumption and marijuana possession. The reason? He graduated in August. Well that… and the fact that he provides defense and depth at the guard position for his 7-1 Bulls.
Wisconsin: First RTC of the Season? If anyone knows of another one, let us know. But this is the first one we’ve seen this year. But c’mon Musberger, get it right! RUSH. THE. COURT. (Ed. note – apparently UNLV fans RTC’d on Saturday after defeating Louisville, which is about as unjustified of an RTC as we’ve ever heard of… goodness gracious, folks, it’s Vegas. And beating an overrated Louisville team excites you?)
Story of the Night. Big Ten Finally Gets Monkey Off Its Back. It didn’t turn out the way we thought it would tonight, but it did end up as a 6-5 victory for the Big Ten schools over their ACC counterparts. Two unexpected events conspired to make this possible — Illinois’ inspirational comeback win at Clemson after being down by as many as 23 points in the second half, and Wisconsin’s home victory over Duke in the type of game the Blue Devils always seem to win (because, well, they do — Duke was 10-0 in the ACC/B10 Challenge prior to tonight). These two surprises combined with Ohio State’s expected win over Florida State at the end of the evening resulted in three straight victories at the end of the Challenge to put the midwesterners on top for the first time EVER. So what does that mean? Does it prove once and for all that the Big Ten is better than the ACC this year? Well, not at all. In fact, if anything, this year’s Challenge has shown us that the middle of the ACC might be a tad bit stronger than we thought it was (Wake, Miami, BC, Clemson). Now… about our predictions for tonight. Regression to the mean is the lesson here. After a perfect 6-0 start over the first two evenings of play, it all crashed and burned with a 1-4 record tonight. But yeah, at least we called it, baby! That’s all that matters! 6-5 Big Ten over the ACC, just like we said!*
*note – our Caribbean friends disagree with this assessment.
Game of the Night #1. Wisconsin 73, #5 Duke 69. Duke took its first ever loss in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge tonight for two reasons as we saw them. First, their big men other than Kyle Singler (28/6/3 assts) were virtually nonexistent. Lance Thomas, Brian Zoubek and the Plumlee brothers combined for just six points and fourteen rebounds. Compare that with 16/27 against UConn last week, and you’ll see that almost all of the scoring burden fell onto the Duke backcourt + Singler. Second, Wisconsin’s Trevon Hughes was spectacular tonight. The senior guard shredded the Duke defense for a career-high 26 pts, using an assortment of drives to the basket to go along with a solid outside stroke (4-7 threes). After taking an 11-pt lead with five minutes to go, though, Duke guard Andre Dawkins nearly brought the Devils back all by himself, hitting three straight triples to cut the lead down to 2 with two minutes left. It appeared that this was going to be one of those epic Duke comeback wins, but UW ran clock down the stretch (surprise) and when Singler missed a wild layup attempt off the bottom of the backboard with under thirty seconds left, it was clear the Badgers were going to take the win tonight. One odd situation occurred in the very last few plays, when color commentator Bob Knight seemed to lose his mind for a moment as he stated that Wisconsin was “for sure” at worst going to overtime after only going up two with 4.9 seconds left (he clearly thought they were up three), and then contemplated whether Trevon Hughes should intentionally miss his second FT (again, thinking up three). What’s that phrase coaches like to use? Time and score? Can you imagine if one of Knight’s players had made a similar mistake at such a key juncture? Maybe now we know why Texas Tech wasn’t nearly as good as Knight’s Indiana teams — he wasn’t paying attention!
Game of the Night #2. Illinois 76, #19 Clemson 74. What can you say about Bruce Weber’s young backcourt of Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson tonight other than we’re extremely impressed. There is absolutely no way that Clemson should have lost this game. The Tigers ran out to a 20-pt halftime lead, pushed it up to 23 early in the second half, and had Littlejohn rocking. But Weber’s kids dug deep, showed the kind of composure that belies their age, and dropped a combined five threes in the next ten minutes of a 35-10 run that got the Illini back into the game and ultimately allowed them an opportunity to steal this one away from Clemson and the ACC. The Clemson players suggested that they relaxed after getting such a big lead, and from our viewpoint, there’s probably something to that. It certainly appeared that Illinois was the team with the drive and moxie throughout most of the second half, and when it came down to Demontez Stitt’s driving layup attempt at the buzzer, we just had a feeling that it wasn’t going down. It didn’t, and Illinois has a rallying cry for the rest of this season no matter how badly they’re playing. Mike Davis had 22/9 for the Illini, but as mentioned above, it was the youthful backcourt of Paul and Richardson (34/8/5 assts) that made tonight happen.
Game of the Night #3. #21 UNLV 74, Arizona 72 (2OT). The Runnin’ Rebels justified their shiny new Top 25 ranking by taking to the road for the first time this season, heading down to Arizona, and knocking off the Wildcats in double-overtime. Despite poor overall shooting from both teams (UNLV 39.7%, UA 36.5%; both teams less than 20% from three!) this one was neck-and-neck from the tip, as neither team ever led by more than six points the whole way. Arizona got up three in the second OT but UNLV’s Derrick Jasper (12/7/5/3 stls) hit one from deep to tie it at 70, and the Wildcats never led after that. Tre’Von Willis continued to carve his name out on the national scene with 25/4 for the Rebs, and Arizona got a huge game from freshman forward Derrick Williams with 28/5 on 10-15 shooting. This kind of win in such a difficult and hostile setting can only help Lon Kruger’s club, which has a few easy ones coming up except for a home game against Kansas State thrown in there on 12/12. If they can get by those Wildcats, there’s a very good chance UNLV will be 12-0 going into a pair of tough road games in early January at BYU and at (currently undefeated) New Mexico.
Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball. Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts from our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season. We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today. Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.
This Week’s Topic: Now that we’re through the majority of the early-season tournaments and the calendar has turned to December, what have you learned from the first several weeks of the season?
zach hayes – editor/contributor, RTC
I’ve learned that the Big Ten may be actually be overrated for once. Purdue picked up a quality win against Tennessee and Michigan State survived Gonzaga at home, but it was a very rough week overall for the conference. Michigan barely beat a Creighton team that ended up losing to Iona and finish in 8th place at the Old Spice Classic, then were crushed by Marquette and fell to Alabama. Illinois saw their freshmen guard duo take some serious lumps in stunning defeats to a down Utah team and Bradley. Minnesota fell to both Texas A&M and Portland in Anaheim. Northwestern’s stock dropped with Kevin Coble’s season-ending injury and their two wins this weekend over two likely-NIT teams in Notre Dame and Iowa State in Chicago aren’t that impressive. Penn State fell to UNC-Wilmington and Tulane in Charleston two weeks ago when Ohio State got demolished by a flawed North Carolina squad. The prevailing thought around college basketball is that the Big Ten can’t play up to the level of other conferences like the ACC, Big East and Big 12. While this year was supposed to change that notion, it has, frankly, only done the opposite for the conference as a whole. Winning the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the first time would certainly change some people’s minds, including myself.
john stevens – editor/contributor, RTC
I’ve learned that, as of right now, the last ten teams listed in any Top 25 you can find are an absolute crap shoot. If you examine the few polls we’ve had this season, you’ll see that pretty much everyone agrees on the first 15 teams, and after that… we don’t know. It’s chaos. I can’t remember a season where we’ve seen such craziness in the bottom half of the polls. This week’s AP and ESPN/USA Today Coaches Polls are great examples. In the AP, six of the bottom 11 teams are different from the previous week, five in the ESPN/USA Today. California sits at #25 in the ESPN poll, #37 in the AP. Four of the new teams in the AP poll LOST last week but still got in (two in the Coaches’), while unbeaten Oklahoma State sits at #26 in both. This is all something to celebrate rather than lament, as it just means that there are more really good teams out there than a Top 25 poll can accommodate. I’ll gladly buy any stock in Siena, Dayton, and Mississippi State if anybody’s selling, and you can come see me again in March.
Jason Prziborowski is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.
This past week was like March Madness in November for the Big Ten. The Big Ten is glad it isn’t though, as all but a few would be left standing with upset after upset bringing down the big and mighty. Those who fell this week include: Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan. The Big Ten started last week with 6 teams in the AP’s top 25, and only 3 remain in Purdue (#6), Michigan State (#9), and Ohio State (#15). The only unbeaten team in the Big Ten is now Purdue.
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