That’s Debatable: How Will OSU Do Without Evan Turner?
Posted by rtmsf on December 8th, 2009
Each week RTC will posit a That’s Debatable question or topic that is relevant to the world of college basketball. Sometimes whimsical, sometimes serious, we’ll post the thoughts from our core editing crew (in 200 words or less), but we’ll also be expanding to include our contributors and correspondents as appropriate throughout the season. We also invite you, the readers, to join us as we mull over some of the questions facing the game today. Feel free to send us your takes and/or leave them in the comments below.
This Week’s Topic: How do you expect Ohio State to handle the loss of NPOY candidate Evan Turner for up to two months after his back injury over the weekend?
zach hayes – editor/contributor, RTC
I expect Ohio State to have an incredibly difficult time recovering from this devastating injury. No player meant more to his team than Evan Turner. Now Thad Matta is left with P.J. Hill and Jerimie Simmons at the point guard position for two months. Not only that, but Turner was the Buckeyes’ best passer and their most reliable rebounder. Turner will likely miss six crucial games – at Butler, at West Virginia in the non-conference and four Big Ten road games in 21 days against tournament teams in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Purdue. Without Turner, the Buckeyes will probably be decided underdogs in all six of these games which could have garnered quality wins on their resume. Unless Jon Diebler and William Buford get extremely hot from outside, Ohio State could be trending more towards the bubble than the top-15 the rest of the way.
john stevens – editor/contributor, RTC
I’m not sounding the death knell on Ohio State just yet. Obviously they’re better with Evan Turner, but this is where that whole Thad Matta recruiting prowess comes into play. This is a deep team of talented players, illustrated by the fact that they have ten guys who average over ten minutes a game. They know the value of shot selection, as they’re currently second in the nation in FG%. Jon Diebler has played excellent basketball so far, and now guys like William Buford, Jeremie Simmons, and Dallas Lauderdale will have to play a few more minutes and hit a couple more shots. But I’m putting the spotlight squarely on David Lighty. When he went down last year, it really hurt this team, but they carried on. This is his chance to pay them back. Diebler and Lighty are still a tough duo and, assuming Turner doesn’t come back early, only have to get to early February without him. Then, Turner will return to a squad of more empowered players. Certainly they’d love to have him now, but if Matta convinces his team to use the Turner injury as a rallying point, they could be even tougher come March.
rtmsf – editor/contributor, RTC
What? OSU should be worried about replacing 19 PPG, 11 RPG, 6 APG and their leader, point forward and go-to guy for the next two months? Pfshaw. Ok, let’s assume that Turner is actually out of commission for the entire eight weeks. That means he’d return for the Penn State game on February 3, and the Buckeyes will have played fourteen games without him — seven home, seven away. Four of those home games should be winnable (Presbyterian, Delaware State, Cleveland State, Indiana) and in three more the Buckeyes should be slight favorites (Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota). Looking at that, anything less than 5-2 would be surprising. The problem is the seven road games. At Butler, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Purdue, West Virginia and Iowa is a beastly lineup. Even with Turner, how many of those would you expect OSU to win? Two or three? Without him in the lineup, the game at Iowa might be the only realistic possibility, which would put OSU at 1-6 for those games. A 6-8 sans-Turner record would put Ohio State at 13-9 overall when he returns, with nine games left on the schedule to show the NCAA Selection Committee that they’re an elite team with him in the lineup. It’s a tricky proposition, but if the Buckeyes can overachieve to play .500 or slightly above ball while he’s on the shelf, it’ll go a long way toward that end.
nvr1983 – editor/contributor, RTC
As you can tell from my RTC poll vote, I do not think they will handle it well. Losing the guy who has been the top player in college basketball so far this season is obviously a big loss, but that is only compounded by a challenging schedule that includes starting their Big Ten schedule. Even though a lot of people focus on Turner’s ability to score, I think it will be the absence of all the other things that he does (the ones that get him those triple-doubles) is what Thad Matta will miss the most. Diebler, Lighty, Buford and Simmons can replace the scoring that Turner will take to the bench (although not at 61.4% FG), but I don’t think they have the ability to make up for the 11.4 RPG and 5.9 APG that Turner provides. If the Buckeyes manage to win 6 of their next 9 games they should be in good shape to still have a high NCAA tournament seed, but I am worried that they might fall a little short of that and if Turner takes a while to get back to full speed, which I suspect he might, they could be in big trouble.
