Well, Saturday’s games were a mishmash between unbelievable endings (seriously, unbelievable), competitive contests, and Jimmer from thirty feet.  What will Sunday have on tap for us?

Ed. note – some of the later games will be added as the day moves forward…

#2 North Carolina vs. #7 Washington – East Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS.

Arguably the best matchup of the second round takes place in Charlotte on Sunday with Washington squaring off in a semi-road game against North Carolina. One factor to immediately keep in mind is the quick turnaround for the Huskies, who had to play after midnight on Friday and prepare for a noon tip not even two days later. While this matchup could produce a high number of possessions and end-to-end action, a breakneck pace may do more harm for the underdog Huskies than anything. When the Heels are vulnerable, it’s when teams keep them glued in the halfcourt and unable to execute Roy Williams’ secondary break, where Kendall Marshall has proven himself as one of the best fullcourt passers and fast break orchestrators since replacing Larry Drew in January. The point guard duel is absolutely fascinating. Isaiah Thomas has whittled down his turnovers this season and is playing more like a true floor general, while Marshall’s insertion into the starting lineup has boosted his supporting cast and sent the Heels on an upward trajectory. While this game could escalate into the 80s if Washington’s wings get going from deep, North Carolina emerges on top because of their defense. Marshall’s story, the emergence of John Henson and the rapid improvement of Harrison Barnes shooting the basketball have been the primary headlines, but UNC has been rock solid on defense since November, ranking seventh in the country in efficiency on that end of the floor while the Huskies lag behind at 48th. Down the stretch in a tight ball game, we simply expect the Heels to generate more stops and move on to Newark.

The RTC Certified Pick:  North Carolina.

#1 Duke vs. #8 Michigan – West Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS.

With Kyrie Irving, who returned on Friday for his first action since early December when he injured his big toe, the Blue Devils are an entirely different team. Not that they needed a ton of help, with National Player of the Year candidate Nolan Smith having filled in admirably at the point, but with Irving back, Smith can shift back over to his more natural two and bigs like Miles and Mason Plumlee will get a boost from Irving’s penetration ability. It remains to be seen exactly what Irving’s role will be for Mike Krzyzewski in close games, but without a doubt, Irving gives him another major weapon. For the Wolverines, coming off a thorough second half destruction of Tennessee on Friday, it all begins and ends with Darius Morris. He’s Michigan’s leading scorer and assist man, and shutting him down will be Duke’s primary focus. With Smith being an excellent defender in addition to his offensive skills, expect him to get that job. Inside, Jordan Morgan is the sole reliable big man for John Beilein, and he probably doesn’t have the ability to exploit what could be Duke’s sole weakness, it’s interior and rebounding game. While wing Zack Novak does a terrific job helping out on the glass, the combination of the Plumlees, Ryan Kelly and Kyle Singler will be enough for the Devils to win the inside game, while their guards get out and score in transition and knock down threes in the halfcourt game. Michigan can keep  the game tight for a while by controlling the pace and riding their momentum from their second round game, but there are too many talented guards here for Michigan to control.

The RTC Certified Pick: Duke.

#1 Ohio State vs. #8 George Mason – East Region Third Round (at Cleveland, OH) – 5:15 pm ET on CBS.

Ohio State’s second round entrance was no surprise, but George Mason needed some more of their March heroics in the final minutes to shut down Villanova’s guards and live another day. Luke Hancock will need to pull out a few more stepback threes from his arsenal if Mason wants to etch their program further into March lore and knock off the overall #1 seed. As you might expect, the Buckeyes are superior to the Patriots in just about every facet. Ohio State ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, third in effective FG%, eighth in turnover%, first in steal%, they shoot 42% from deep led by Jon Diebler and 53% from inside the arc courtesy of Jared Sullinger. This is a phenomenal six or seven man rotation that understands their roles and execute on both ends to near perfection. It’s going to take a yeomen’s effort from Mason to pull off the shocker, and that means excelling at what they’ve done all season and catching some breaks along the way, i.e., Sullinger picking up two early fouls or Diebler experiencing an off-day from deep. Like any mid-major looking to pull an upset, they’ll need their stellar 39% mark on the season from three to hold up, meaning Andre Cornelius, Isaiah Tate and Cam Long better have the stroke from three. Mason also held opponents to just 31% from behind the arc on the season. If they can contain either Sullinger inside or the perimeter workings of the Buckeye guards, they’ll have a shot, and Mason does happen to be the highest efficiency team a #1 seed has to face in the second round. In the end, the Bucks simply have too many options capable of springing for 20. It’s going to be a few steps down the road, if at all, until OSU is slain.

The RTC Certified Pick: Ohio State.

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Sullinger & His Buckeyes Perform Well in the Metrics

I obviously place a great deal of trust in respect in Ken Pomeroy’s statistical rankings that use Pythagorean expectation-based offensive and defensive efficiencies. Well, Ken has upped the ante by running a log5 analysis of the tournament field which breaks down the expectation of a given team to reach each round. Even more fun, Neil Paine at Basketball Reference ran Monte Carlo Simulation of the tournament 10,000 times using Pomeroy’s values and posted the very interesting results. Jeff Sagarin’s list uses scoring margin and a clever use of the Elo rating system (originally designed to rank chess players) to come up with his list of things to pick. Naturally, Nate Silver can’t resist weighing in with his method of making picks, which basically does for March Madness what Five Thirty Eight did for electoral math. His system, much like his polling methodology, is a weighted aggregation of different sources like Ken Pomeroy and Sagarin’s ranking plugged in with other factors that Silver thinks are important like geography, player ranking, and pre-season ranking. The sources he pulls from are exhaustive and smart while his methodology is well-reasoned. That said, it’s worth mentioning that a dumb “wisdom of the crowds” type list, such as ESPN’s national bracket (an average of all individual brackets) tends to outperform the majority of individual brackets.

Now, here’s the question: are you trying to predict the winner of games or are you trying to win a pool? These are not the same thing and it’s important to make the distinction. The national bracket, as I mentioned, usually gets a lot of the answers right. For the big questions, common sense is usually close enough. You want to know who has the best chance of winning the NCAA? Ohio State.  Pretty much every system, rankings, and analytics have Ohio State as the best team in the country. I happen to think this as well. I also think that the four number one seeds have the best chance of making it to the Final Four. Lots of folks agree with me and lots of analytics back it up.

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Zach Hayes is the RTC bracketologist and a contributor. He will analyze the East Region throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Throughout Monday, we’ll be releasing our Bracket Prep analyses of each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.  The order will be as follows — please check back throughout the day for all four (all times eastern).

• West – 9 am
• Southeast – 11 am
• Southwest – 1 pm
• East – 3 pm

Region: EAST

Favorite: #1 Ohio State, 32-2 (16-2 Big Ten)- The Buckeyes come into the tournament as the #1 overall seed and the prohibitive favorite to cut down the nets. Big Ten freshman POY Jared Sullinger anchors the inside, but defenses can’t double Sully because of the Buckeyes’ plethora of perimeter options.

Should They Falter: #2 North Carolina, 26-7 (14-2)- The Tar Heels have been a completely different team since Kendall Marshall took over at the point guard position. His dynamic passing ability has aided Harrison Barnes, while big men Tyler Zeller and John Henson have also made tremendous strides.

Grossly Overseeded: #10 Georgia, 21-11 (9-7)- Most projected the Bulldogs to sneak into the field as one of the last teams in or even be left out altogether. Instead, they earn a #10 seed? Georgia has won just five games all season against the RPI top-100.

Grossly Underseeded: #11 Marquette, 20-14 (9-9) – The 9-9 record won’t jump out at you, but remember the Golden Eagles thrashed Notre Dame, won at Connecticut, beat Syracuse and also downed West Virginia in the Big East Tournament, all top five seeds. They also had many other close losses to good teams along the way

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): #13 Princeton, 25-6 (12-2)- We’ve seen this program pull off some March magic in the past. This year’s version is fairly efficient offensively and has capable players in Ian Hummer and Kareem Maddox. If the Tigers shock Kentucky, a more vulnerable West Virginia team likely awaits.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): #4 Kentucky, 25-8 (10-6)- This young Kentucky team is riding high after winning at Tennessee in the season finale and then dominating both Alabama and Florida in the SEC Tournament. Darius Miller is playing the best basketball of his career and it’s the junior amidst a trio of talented freshman that could make the difference for the Cats.

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Throughout conference tournament weekend, we’re going to pop in with some BGTD-style analysis at least twice a day.  Here’s Friday afternoon’s coverage…

• OSU Survives.  Northwestern seems to play the #1 Buckeyes as well as anybody, taking Thad Matta’s team to the brink twice this season, and losing both.  No other Big Ten team played OSU as closely as the Wildcats did this year, not even Purdue and Wisconsin, the two teams who beat the Buckeyes once each but were blown out in Columbus.  Jared Sullinger did his thing dominating the inside (20/18), but the key takeaway from this game is that in two contests this season, Bill Carmody has found a way to slow down Jon Diebler’s scorching three-point attack.  Recall that Diebler had hit a ridiculous 17-20 in his last two games and is over 50% for the season, but in the close games against the Wildcats, Diebler was only 2-8 from deep and 5-14 overall.  Slowing him down is absolutely essential to knocking off the Buckeyes, so you’d better believe that coaches over the next three weeks will be studying the Northwestern game films very carefully for clues.
• Michigan Surges. We couldn’t really figure out what happened to the Wolverines last season, but we knew that something was structurally wrong because John Beilein is an excellent coach.  He’s proving it again this year, as Michigan has now won nine of 12 games after today’s comeback victory over Illinois, with the three losses being by one point to Wisconsin, two points at Illinois and eleven points at #1 Ohio State.  At the under-8 timeout, the Wolverines were down nine points and struggling to put points on the board (only 42); from that point on, UM went on an 18-4 run, holding Illinois to a single field goal down the stretch by making several big plays to finish it off.  Michigan is playing well, and their style is very difficult to prepare for — don’t be surprised if Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and company give the Buckeyes all they want tomorrow and make a run at the Sweet Sixteen next week.
• Carolina: Master of Close Wins.  Everyone knows that the Tar Heels have been on fire, winning eight in a row and thirteen of their last fourteen games and making a case for an outside shot at a #1 seed next week.  What’s interesting to us is how Roy Williams’ relatively young team is consistently  coming back to win close games — today’s buzzer-beater by Tyler Zeller underneath against Miami (FL) is only the latest example.  The Heels were down nineteen points with around ten minutes to go, but somehow, someway, led by Kendall Marshall’s artistry and some timely three-point shooting, they went on a 27-6 run to close out the game and get the victory to move into the ACC semifinals.  Whether these close wins against average competition (six ACC wins by one possession) represents a weakness or a strength, we’re not quite sure, but Carolina is showing an ability to make the right plays in the clutch.
• Do You Leave Alabama Out? If the intent of the NCAA Tournament is to invite the 37 best at-large teams to dance, then we’re not sure you can leave Alabama out of the NCAA Tournament.  In a recurring theme this weekend, the Tide roared back from fourteen down in the last seven minutes to force overtime where they were then able to pull out the key victory against Georgia.  That gives Anthony Grant’s team 13 SEC wins out of 17 tries, and although the conference is exceptionally weak, especially on the West side, it’s difficult for us to fathom that Alabama isn’t one of those top 37 right now.  We think the Committee will see it the same way, and Alabama will be in one of the First Four games on Tuesday or Wednesday night.
• A-10 Craziness.  The top half of the Atlantic 10 bracket was blown up this afternoon with #9 seed Dayton getting out to a big lead early against #1 Xavier and holding on down the stretch; and, #12 St. Joseph’s knocking out #4 Duquesne in overtime.  This sets up a Saturday semifinal between a #9 and a #12 seed that nobody who follows this league could have seen coming.  Bubble teams around the country are rooting for #2 Temple to run its way to the title game and easily handle one of these two; otherwise, the Atlantic 10 will be guilty of bid larceny on Sunday.
• Bubbling Up.  Clearly, Alabama, who may have played its way into the First Four with today’s win over Georgia… Clemson, who crushed BC in a possible knockout game in the ACC Tourney…
• Bubbling Down.  Georgia, who may have played its way out of the Tournament with its collapse and unfortunate timing on the time out at the end of regulation…  Boston College, who never showed up against Clemson…

The Lede.  The story of this week so far appears to be just how difficult it is for us to find 37 at-large teams to fill out this year’s bracket.  Can you imagine how this would look if they NCAA had expanded to 96 teams?  We’d be discussing teams like New Mexico, Cal and Ole Miss as serious candidates for inclusion, a specter that nobody would want to face.  Memo to all the bubble teams — give us a reason to support your selection, will you?

Diebler Didn't Need to Drive Tonight (AP/J. Beale)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble.  On Saturday night, after Virginia Tech successfully vanquished the Dookies and RTC’d with reckless abandon, we wrote: “Did Virginia Tech Finally Get Over the NCAA Hump? Of course, it’s hard to say for certain with these guys.  After vanquishing #1 Duke for its most important win in years, the Hokies will probably turn around and lose to Boston College at home on Tuesday.  Let’s hope not.”  Sigh………  And Seth Greenberg dares to argue year after year why his team is left on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in?  His team didn’t show up tonight, falling behind by as much as 30-12 in the opening minutes and only making half-hearted runs the rest of the way — put simply, BC appeared to be a team that wanted to play in the NCAAs, while Tech seemed to play like they were already guaranteed a bid.  The Hokies now sit at 19-10 (9-6 ACC) with a tough trip to fellow bubbler Clemson over the weekend on the horizon.  It’s going to be another one of those Marches for the Virginia Tech fanbase, as even with a bubble softer than Greenberg’s midsection, the Hokies are no lock for the NCAAs and are generally unlikely to make things easy on the Selection Committee.

In other Bubble trouble, several teams hurt their case in what is rapidly becoming a race to the dirty bottom in terms of finding enough legitimate teams to fill out this year’s 68-team bracket.

• Baylor – The Bears were already on a bit of life support with only a handful of bracketologists having Baylor as a part of the 68-team field based on their current resume.  Getting a road win against a middle-pack Big 12 team would have helped, but a terrible shooting night from their backcourt of LaceDarius Dunn and AJ Walton (combined 5-26 FGs) did them in.  The Bears host reeling Texas over the upcoming weekend, but it’s looking more and more that, with a weak RPI and few quality wins of substance, that the only way Baylor finds its way back into the Dance is by making a run in the Big 12 Tournament.
• Alabama – For a half, it appeared that maybe, finally, inexorably, Anthony Grant’s team might get the kind of marquee win that would make all the bracketologists stand up and take notice that they’re playing some pretty good ball down in Tuscaloosa this winter.  It wasn’t to be.  Florida blistered the Tide with a 48-21 second half, breaking open a tied game at the half and clinching the Gators’ first SEC regular season title since the Oh-Fours left campus in 2007.  For Bama, its rough non-conference schedule is likely to act as an NCAA albatross two Sundays from now — the Tide needs to win the SEC Tournament, more than likely, to Dance this year.
• Illinois – The Illini competed with Purdue tonight, but they simply weren’t going to beat the Boilermakers in their building where they were 16-0 this season.  This loss won’t hurt them much, but they do not want to enter the Big Ten Tournament next week with an 8-10 conference record and absolutely needing a win, do they?  Beating Indiana at home is a security blanket that they cannot afford to drop (Illinois lost to Indiana in Bloomington, remember).

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Louis Farrakhan as College Hoops Patron.  Yes, you read that correctly.  We don’t usually think of the elderly Nation of Islam leader and college basketball at the same time, ever, but Farrakhan attended tonight’s NC State-Virginia game to represent for his grandson, Cavalier guard Mustapha, during his Senior Night.  Farrakhan the Younger dropped 15/4/3 assts in an 11-point win for Virginia, a key victory as the Wahoos attempt to keep an overall winning record to become NIT-eligible this season.  The Cavs are currently 15-14 with a road game at Maryland and the ACC Tournament upcoming, so they still have some work to do.  We suppose this might be the first and only time that Farrakhan will ever attend a college hoops game.

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1. You know about the NCAA sanctions against UConn and Jim Calhoun already… so get yourself ready for another day of discussion about NCAA allegations, as Tennessee has learned and will release later today its notice of allegations as a result of the Bruce Pearl scandal and several other alleged violations.  Pearl in particular is “expected to be accused of unethical conduct and failing to promote an atmosphere of compliance,” according to FoxSports, one of the most serious allegations that can be levied against a head coach.  Mike DeCourcy points out that the UConn sanctions do not allow Pearl to rest easily, given that former Husky director of basketball operations Beau Archibald was given a two-year “show cause” penalty for unethical conduct, the same thing that Pearl is charged with.  Yikes.  UT won’t have its day in court against the committee of infractions until June, so it won’t impact this season any further, but the Volunteer program and fans cannot be feeling very comfortable today.
2. Ohio State may have lost two of its last three games, but head coach Thad Matta is keeping things in perspective in realizing that the Buckeyes lost their games in two of the toughest road environments in the country against teams who could get to the Final Four.  We’re generally in agreement with Matta.  It took an insane performance by E’Twaun Moore last weekend to take down OSU in Mackey, and the Badgers were equally ridiculous in its comeback against the Buckeyes the weekend prior.  In our view, Ohio State is still the most balanced and capable team in America, and on a neutral floor we’re not sure anyone will beat them in March.
3. Is it even possible that the lunatic fringe known as the Mississippi State basketball program could be surging at the right time to make a run just in time for the postseason after a tumultuous season of disappointment?  From Renardo Sidney’s haymakers to Ravern Johnson’s tweets to Dee Bost’s credits to Rick Stansbury’s hair turning gray seemingly by the minute, it’s been a wild ride in Starkville this year.  And the answer is a resounding NO, despite what these southern fried writers (this one believes that Sidney is deserving of praise, not criticism) are trying to sell their local fans — MSU might end up with a Thursday bye into the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament, but to expect them to (most likely) beat three solid East teams to win the event is all kinds of ridiculous.  They haven’t won three in a row since the start of the season playing a bunch of nobodies.
4. Speaking of concerns, Butler’s Brad Stevens has had a lot to worry about this year as his Bulldogs have spent most of the season looking for a post-Final Four identity with returnees Matt Howard, Ronald Nored and Shelvin Mack back in the fold.  In keeping with his cool cat persona, though, Stevens said recently that he didn’t “freak out” over Butler’s nine losses, all of which came before February 3.  Now, with his team on a six-game winning streak and having pushed itself back onto the NCAA bubble, Stevens believes that his team was always “pretty close” to being good.  With one more regular season game and strong opportunity to receive a double-bye in the Horizon League Tourney again (the tiebreaker scenarios are incredibly complicated), the Bulldogs appear almost there.
5. Luke Winn is back with his Late Season Style Archive feature.  This is obviously a must-read, but which of his twenty different looks are your favorites?  For our money, Jay-R Stowbridge’s Yellow Man, Norris Cole’s high fade, Mike Bruesewitz’s Redhead Revival, and Justin Graham’s Flying Spicoli.  Submit your favs below…

The Lede.  It was an interesting night of games out there in the college hoops nation, but the most intriguing part of the evening came from a Divison III school with a grand total of 950 undergraduate students, every one of whom could undoubtedly use our SAT scores back in the day as toilet paper.  Pasadena, where you at?

Caltech Celebrates Its First Conference Win in 26 Years (LA Times/G. Friedman)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Caltech Ends 310-Game Conference Losing Streak.  If there was ever a time for a fan base to RTC, it was tonight at Caltech’s Senior Night.  We typically don’t delve down into Division III very often unless a D-I team is going slummin’, but something like this is definitely worthy as the WC Moment.  The last time the Beavers won a game in its Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, January 23, 1985, none of its current players were even born yet (the school ended an overall 207-game losing streak back in 2007; things are looking up!).  The losing streak had extended to a stunning 310 games in the intervening 26 years, but the lovable losers from one of the nation’s most prestigious universities put an end to it tonight when Ryan Elmquist hit one of two free throws with three seconds left to give his team a one-point lead.  The ensuing half court shot by Occidental College was off the mark, Caltech won the game, 46-45, and the RTC was on. Congrats to the Beavers on their Senior Night.  Let’s just not make it another generation until the next one, ok?

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Matt Dickey’s Fifteen Seconds.  Well, actually 2.8 seconds, as that’s all it took for the junior UNC-Asheville guard to steal a long inbounds pass at halfcourt, take one dribble, and drop a leaning thirty-footer to beat Big South leading Coastal Carolina at the buzzer.  If he isn’t already, he’ll be all over the ESPN highlight packages this week for this play.  Wow.  CCU is still a full game ahead of second-place Liberty in the loss column of the Big South, but that was a terrible way to lose at home right there.

• Bruce Pearl With His Dander Up.  It seemingly never fails.  As soon as the flames start licking at Bruce Pearl’s feet, his team comes up big with a win that nobody expects.  A 29-9 run to close out the last twelve minutes of the game in Memorial Gymnasium is almost unheard of for a visiting team, yet Pearl’s guys came from eleven down to win by nine in a shocking display of defensive prowess over the last third of tonight’s game.  Pearl getting notice of allegations from the NCAA today didn’t cause Vanderbilt to go ice cold from beyond the arc (Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins combined for 1-9 from distance), but if we’ve learned anything about this man’s career, there seems to be a strong correlation between other teams playing badly at precisely the time we stop believing in him.  UT isn’t a lock for the NCAA Tournament just yet, but tonight’s win will go a long way toward that end.  Who here wants to bet against Pearl?

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The Lede.  What a wild, wild President’s Day weekend it was.  The second-, third-, and fourth-ranked teams all took a loss over the weekend to join #1 Kansas  from the previous Monday night, the first time that such a thing had happened in a little over seven years.  BracketBusters was in full effect across the land, and although there were some interesting games during the event, only a couple of teams actually helped themselves.  Over the three days, we saw RTCs ranging from relaxed ambivalence to firecracker intensity, another bizarre diatribe from Jim Boeheim, and a number of great games befitting the time of the season where so much is on the line.  Let’s jump in…

Note: For our BGTD coverage from Saturday, please see these three posts examining the early games, the late afternoon/evening games, and the BracketBuster games.

No, That's Not the Actual Ref Screaming Amidst the Mayhem... (AP/N. Harnik)

Your Watercooler Moment.  1, 2, 3, 4… The last time that the top four teams in the national polls lost in the same week of action, Barack Obama was an unknown state senator in Illinois and Saddam Hussein was hiding in a hole in somebody’s backyard.  It was November 2003, and the names Bieber, Gaga and Twitter had no meaning to anybody yet, but UConn, Duke, Michigan State and Arizona each dropped a game over Thanksgiving week that year and the result was a significant re-ordering of the poll.  The big difference this time around is that we’re two weeks from the end of the season as opposed to two weeks from the start, so the likelihood of four established teams dropping games over the same week was far more unlikely.  So what happened, exactly?

We already knew that #1 Kansas lost to K-State in rough-and-tumble fashion last Monday.  But the next three teams waited until the weekend to join the polling bloodbath. It began on Saturday with the first game of the day — Steve Lavin’s rejuvenated and tough-as-nails St. John’s program took down #4 Pittsburgh on the back of Dwight Hardy’s 19 points and his tap dance routine along the baseline to win the game.  It was the cherry on top of the sundae in a season of breakthroughs for the Red Storm program, and as you can see below, Madison Square Garden has become something more than just the place where Amare and (now) Melo play.

A little later Saturday afternoon, #2 Texas was in trouble at Nebraska late when its vaunted defense and some brain-farts on the part of the Huskers led to a ridiculous 12-1 in a span of thirty-four seconds to tie the game in the final minute, 65-all.  What appeared to be a major meltdown in Lincoln, though, turned to bedlam as Doc Sadler’s team regained its composure enough to hit their FTs down the stretch and notch possibly their biggest win in years.  UT is more than its individuals, but when Jordan Hamilton struggles as he did on Saturday (3-16 FG), the Horns have trouble putting enough points on the board against quality teams.  With the win, Nebraska has vaulted itself back onto the bubble — with a favorable schedule down the stretch, the Huskers could potentially get back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time in thirteen seasons.  Nice RTC, fellas.

On Sunday it was Ohio State’s turn to again do battle with a Big Ten road crowd and team dead set on knocking off the much-hyped Buckeyes.  Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore ensured that the home crowd got what they paid for, as the senior guard went Kemba/Jimmer on the Big Ten leaders, scoring in just about every possible way en route to a superb 38/4/5 asst afternoon on 13-18 shooting.  His 13-point stretch over the last three-plus minutes of the first half was as impressive an offensive display as we’ve seen all season, punctuated by an acrobatic circus shot layup (see below) that told the viewers that this was going to be his game.  Talk has increased about Purdue as a legitimate Final Four contender after wins over OSU and Wisconsin last week, but the Boilermakers are an excellent home team.  We’re not as sold on Matt Painter’s team outside the friendly confines of Mackey Arena.

There you have it.  Three of the top four losing over the weekend, and nobody having a clue as to how to rank the top six today.  The AP Poll had six different teams receiving #1 votes, while the ESPN/Coaches had five.  Even the RTC poll, consisting of only six voters, had four different teams ranked at the top.  The takeaway from this weekend, and really, much of the season, is that there are a bunch of really good teams but certainly no great ones.  The NCAA Tournament could look a lot more like the 1997 (Arizona), 2003 (Syracuse), or 2006 (Florida) versions given this season’s continuing and obvious level of parity.

Your Watercooler Moment, Pt. II.  Another Diatribe From Jim Boeheim.  Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim must really be frustrated with his team this season.  The smiles and self-knowing mockery that he engaged with the media last season appears to have migrated south with the rest of the snowbirds.  After tonight’s win (note we said “win”) at Villanova, Boeheim again lashed out at the media for its stupid questions and representations about his team. Mike Miller at MSNBC has the goods here (via Soft Pretzel Logic), and we’re a little bit at a loss ourselves as to why Boeheim is acting like such a prima donna lately.  With respect to the questions about “toughening” up one’s team, he can choose to not believe in such a thing but we dare say that he probably does.  Most coaches who have been doing this for as long as he has would probably believe there’s real team-building value in gutting out close wins ten times even if you end up losing a similarly-situated game in the postseason.  We weren’t at the presser in Philadelphia tonight, but it sounded like someone arguing for the sake of being argumentative.  Lighten up, Jim — the university pays you a LOT of money to answer a few minutes of questions after each game, not to berate people and make them feel stupid for doing their jobs.

This Weekend’s Quick Hits…

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1. If you remember the name Pete Lisicky, a Penn State guard during the mid-90s, you’re probably either a Big Ten fan or some kind of stat nerd savant for college basketball.  Expect to hear his name a lot this weekend, as Ohio State’s Jon Diebler is set to break his Big Ten record for threes made (332) in a career.  Diebler currently sits one behind Lisicky, who spent the last eleven years draining treys in Europe before coming back to work in mutual funds in Arizona, for the record.  OSU plays Purdue on Saturday, so place your bets now on the times of the game when Diebler will both tie and pass the mark — he’s only made fewer than two treys in a game five times this year.
2. Temple forward Michael Eric will miss the rest of the season with a fractured patella.  He suffered the injury earlier this week during practice when he ran into another player, but is expected to make a full recovery.  The 6’11 big man was averaging 7/6 in twenty minutes per game, but the Owls didn’t seem to miss him last night against Richmond, blowing out the Spiders, 73-53.
3. This story from the Baltimore Sun revisits the “Jewish Jordan,” Tamir Goodman.  Goodman was a one-time Maryland recruit who never realistically could have lived up to the hype he received coming out of high school.  He played for a bit at Towson before heading overseas until injuries forced him to retire at the age of 28.  It’s a good read about a guy who is using his life lessons in a positive way.
4. Of the various Billy Gillispie rumors that have floated around the past couple of seasons — Texas Tech, Houston, etc. — this one where he would take over for Oklahoma’s Jeff Capel seems the best fit.  OU is a top-tier basketball program when it wants to be but will never be confused with football in Norman, and with Gillispie’s pipeline into the fertile Texas recruiting landscape, this would appear to be a home run situation for both sides.  The question, of course, is whether the administration will give Capel another year to turn things around there.
5. This is so amazing that we’re not sure whether to be scared of these two or ready to send them campaign contributions.  Henry Sims, a junior center at Georgetown, has decided to run for student body VP, and his campaign ad (along with presidential candidate, Jed Felman), is comedic gold.  Who shares a salad, and what’s going on with the Oprah joke?  Just bizarre, but hilarious.

The Lede.  It’s not that often that we lead with a relative unknown on a weeknight, but it’s also not often that a single player rips off 25- and 30-footers to keep his team alive and win the game at the buzzer.  America, meet Charles Jenkins.  If you knew him, great; if you don’t, take a moment.  He’s one of the best mid-major players in America and could probably give the Jimmer and others a run for their money if he got the chance.

Meet Mr. Jenkins (Newsday/J. McIsaac)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Charles Jenkins, Hero of Men.  It’s one thing to hit a buzzer-beater to tie a game to send it to overtime, but it’s quite another to do it again to win the game a few minutes later.  The video below is entitled “Charles being Charles,” and if you’ve never seen the 6’3 senior guard from Queens play, you’re in for a treat.  The reigning Colonial POY with the ungodly ability to make just about everything he throws at the basket — 53% FG, 43% 3FG, 83% FT — knocked out 28/4 assts tonight against William & Mary, including two long threes as the horn went off to ultimately give his team a top-four seed in the upcoming CAA Tournament.  In the first case, W&M held a three-point lead when Jenkins received the inbounds pass with 6.6 seconds left, begging the question as to why they didn’t foul him rather than let him get off the tying 24-footer.  The Tribe didn’t have that option in overtime, as Jenkins took ball upcourt with 4.5 seconds remaining and the game tied, but maybe they could have employed a little better pressure to keep him from receiving the pass… or at least a double-team on the catch?  William & Mary didn’t, so Jenkins found space on the left side about thirty feet away, and he drilled it, winning the game for his Pride.  Along with Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried, Charleston’s Andrew Goudelock and Cleveland State’s Norris Cole, Jenkins is one of the best players in America most of us have never seen play — but let’s hope that he and the others will be able to find their way into March Madness so that they all can entertain us on the game’s greatest stage.  In the meantime, this mini-compilation of tonight’s highlights will have to do…

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Butler’s Surge.  The defending national runners-up won their fifth game in a row tonight over Green Bay to move to 11-5 in the Horizon League, showing some of the resolve that we expected all season from a Brad Stevens team featuring a couple of studs in Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack.  Mack and Howard combined for 35/10/7 assts this evening, giving the Bulldogs a fighting chance to once again win the regular season title in the Horizon League and guarantee home court during the conference tourney.  Butler only has two games remaining (both winnable), but league leader Valpo has four games remaining and Cleveland State three — if Butler can get into one of the top two slots, we think it’s likely they’ll figure a way to get back to the NCAAs in an otherwise trying season.
• The Johnnies.  We have to hand it to Steve Lavin’s coaching performance this season.  He’s managed to take a group of talented, experienced kids who had underachieved throughout their careers and turn them into a group that is finally and inexorably playing to its potential.  With three wins in the last six days, including another nice 80-68 win at Marquette this evening, SJU is approaching its first NCAA Tournament bid in nearly a decade.  The Red Storm do not excel at anything other than forcing turnovers (18 tonight for Marquette), but they hustle, claw and defend with a ruffian’s mentality befitting their NYC attitude.  Good for them.

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