I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.

Regional Threats

These are the teams that have a credible chance of dancing all the way to the Sweet Sixteen (and maybe beyond).

Joe Ragland Point Guard Play Will be Key to the Shockers' Sweet Sixteen Chances

Wichita State (#5, South) – I’m a great fan of the Shockers, who finished the season atop our TO26 top 15 rankings.  They have a balanced lineup that can do it all.  Inside scoring presence?  Garrett Stutz.  Steady point guard play?  Joe Ragland. Attacking guard?  Toure’ Murry.  Blue-collar enforcer?  Carl Hall.  Three-point marksmen?  Ragland, Ben Smith, and David Kyles.  And they back it up with a solid, steady defense.  If this team has a weakness, it’s the lack of a single go-to player, which can come in handy in crunch time in March.

The key for the Shockers’ getting to the regionals may be slowing their games into halfcourt contests.  They have a tough first-round draw against VCU and its frenetic defensive style.  It will be a challenge to maintain calm amidst the storm that the Rams will bring – Murry in particular can play undisciplined — but if I had to make a call, I’d say that the Shockers will rise to the challenge and get the ball into the lane, where VCU is vulnerable.  In the next round, Wichita State would likely face an Indiana team with a fast-paced offense, but somewhat softer defense that is susceptible to dribble penetration.  Again, if the Shockers can slow things down and turn it into more of a halfcourt game, they could be on their way to the Sweet Sixteen.

Memphis (#8, West) – No team has a more legitimate grievance about its seed than the Tigers.  They have steadily, but markedly, improved ever since a nearly two-hour closed door team meeting following a loss at Georgetown on December 22.  Few have taken notice because it came mostly against C-USA competition, but during this stretch, the Tigers have gone 19-3, with their three losses coming by a combined total of 6 points.  Oh, and freshman standout Adonis Thomas just returned to the lineup.

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The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

South

• Where does Kentucky head coach John Calipari rank among the top coaches in the country without a title? As he continues to chase his white whale, will this finally be the year?
• Indiana freshman swingman Remy Abell has been a solid contributor to the Hoosiers’ success.
• The status of Duke junior forward Ryan Kelly is still uncertain for the NCAA Tournament. In the classic “Stretch 4” role, Duke’s tournament fate could rest on Kelly’s availability.
• Notre Dame is a big fan of the Wilson-brand balls that will be used in the NCAA Tournament.
• Despite a successful regular season, UNLV still thinks its success will ultimately be determined by its play in the Big Dance. With Kentucky, Baylor and Duke all residing in the South, the Rebs will have their chance to make a big statement.
• Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall has made a gritty journey to being the head coach of the Shockers. After the firing of Darrin Horn from South Carolina, Marshall’s name was almost immediately mentioned as a successor, but Marshall remains focused on his current team.
• Since Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun has returned from leave, guard Shabazz Napier has really stepped up his game.
• Iowa State‘s risky decision to hire Fred Hoiberg has really paid off for the Cyclones. Many programs tend to shy away from hiring beloved former players out of PR concerns in case things go south, but just one season in, Hoiberg has the full confidence of his administration as well as his fanbase.

Midwest

• The Creighton Bluejays aren’t bothered by Alabama‘s defensive prowess going into their opening round matchup. Creighton has pulled off wins against athletic teams in Long Beach State, Wichita State and San Diego State, but in an elimination setting, the margin of error becomes thinner.
• Kansas forward Thomas Robinson responded to some early smack talk from Detroit‘s Eli Holman prior to the team’s departure for Omaha. Holman was probably doing his best to keep confidence high, but likely generated some bulletin board material in doing so. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s my favorite sports time of year!  The NCAA Tournament is here!!!  While we all feverishly try and figure out with first round upset to pick, I have some thoughts on how the Big Ten will perform.  Will the best conference in the country find success in the Big Dance?  Here are Five Bold Predictions…

Will Draymond Green have a chance to cut down the nets in another Final Four? (photo: Reuters)

#1 – Hello, Big Ten.  Allow me to embrace you:  The Big Ten was the best conference in college basketball this year, and while the league only got six teams into the Tournament, it has five teams seeded as a #4 seed or higher.  Purdue is the only seed not “favored” in their game, but don’t be surprised if Purdue is favored in Vegas against St. Mary’s.  If you are participating in a pool in Big Ten country, don’t listen to those who call you a homer.  All six Big Ten teams will win in their opening game matchups, and I believe that two of them are headed to the Final Four.

#2 – Don’t buy all this Memphis stuff when it comes to MSU:  Michigan State earned its #1 seed with a great Big Ten tournament performance, and now everyone’s feathers are all ruffled because they think Memphis could upset the Spartans early.  I watched Memphis play earlier this year when they lost to Michigan, and did not come away impressed.  They have great athletes, but I have no faith in Josh Pastner as a big-time coach.  When it comes to quick turnarounds, no one can scout and adjust like Tom Izzo.  It’s almost an art form how well Izzo and his staff prepares MSU for their next NCAA game in less than 48 hours.  Finally, Conference USA is no Big Ten, and when Memphis played outside of their conference they lost to Georgetown (twice), Murray State, Louisville, and Michigan.  Their best win over a tournament team is against Xavier. Michigan State, meanwhile, just won the Big Ten tournament by beating Wisconsin and Ohio State, two wins much more impressive than anything the Tigers have on their resume.  Why should the Spartans be scared again???

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

If Tuesday night’s First Four games were any indication, the first round of the NCAA Tournament will be wild. Due to a contrast of style, individual matchups or captivating storylines, these are the eight games that have the most potential to be memorable:

The Beach is a Dangerous Squad

1. New Mexico vs. Long Beach State

After losing the last two seasons to rival UCSB in the Big West final, the 49ers’ four key seniors – led by electric point guard Casper Ware – will be extra motivated to capitalize on a long-awaited opportunity. The committee didn’t do Long Beach any favors pairing them with New Mexico, an extremely deep and talented team who tied for first in a competitive Mountain West and then ran roughshod over UNLV and San Diego State in the league tournament. The Lobos rank 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency and surround walking double-double Drew Gordon with exceptional shooters Tony Snell and Kendall Williams on the perimeter. They should prove a fascinating matchup for an experienced Long Beach squad who doesn’t fit the profile of your typical mid-major. Dan Monson’s team has athleticism across the board – including the last two Big West defensive player of the year winners in Ware and wing Larry Anderson, who is questionable with a knee injury – and shoot an effective 52 percent as a team from inside the arc.

2. Wichita State vs. VCU

The Shockers are flying a bit under-the-radar due to their surprising semifinal loss to Illinois State in the MVC tournament, a rare slip-up which shouldn’t overshadow a 27-5 season in which Wichita did not lose a single game by double figures. Gregg Marshall’s team is extremely balanced and efficient on both sides of the ball, buoyed by the outside shooting prowess of point guard Joe Ragland (50 percent from deep in 114 attempts) and lock down wing defenders Toure Murry and Ben Smith. The key to handle Shaka Smart’s patented “havoc” full-court pressing defense is to limit turnovers and force the Rams to defend Ragland and versatile seven-footer Garrett Stutz in the halfcourt. Wichita only turns it over on 18 percent of their possessions which ranks in the top 50 in the country, an intriguing contrast to a VCU pressure that leads the nation in both turnovers forced and steal percentage.

3. Creighton vs. Alabama

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The NCAA Tournament is here and there’s more news, commentary and analysis than any of us can possibly keep up with. To make things a little easier, we’ll bring you a list of daily links gathered about teams in each of the four regions all the way through the Final Four.

East Region

• Is top-seeded Syracuse primed for a “flop?” Dan Wolken of The National believes so, although most other national analysts seem to still believe in the Orange’s prospects.
• Leonard Hamilton’s Florida State Seminoles “just flicked its cigarette ashes on the carpet of Tobacco Road,” according to the Orlando Sentinel‘s Mike Bianchi, who tries to put FSU’s ACC championship in perspective.
• Vanderbilt won its first SEC championship in 61 years on Sunday, beating Kentucky in a game that ended with head coach Kevin Stallings sitting on the sideline in tears. The Commodores are getting some talk as a Final Four dark horse, and it’s all because of the vision that Stallings had for his program.
• Despite being the #7 seed, Gonzaga is viewing its trip to Pittsburgh to play regional favorite West Virginia, to be a “road game,” and with good reason — the Morgantown campus is roughly 90 minutes from the Steel City.
• When players such as Kyle Casey and Keith Wright were recruited to Harvard, they bought into what head coach Tommy Amaker was selling about building a successful program in Cambridge. Now, with the Crimson heading to its first NCAA Tournament since 1946, all that belief and hard work has paid off.
• Three months ago, Xavier and Cincinnati squared off in the darkest moment of the entire season. Today, both teams are flying high after receiving at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Midwest Region

• North Carolina expects to have center John Henson healthy for the opening round later this week. Henson missed the ACC Tournament final, a Tar Heel loss to Florida State, with a sprained left wrist.
• A three-game losing streak by Creighton in early February caused its seed to fall, and the Bluejays could be vulnerable to an early exit when it faces defensive-minded Alabama.
• The Temple Owls will play the waiting game, as its opponent won’t be decided until Wednesday when South Florida faces California in the first round.
• South Florida has faced an uphill battle to make the tournament every season since joining the Big East in 2005, but the Bulls are back in the Big Dance for the first time in 20 years.
• After taking care of business throughout the regular season, Michigan could rest easy knowing it wouldn’t be on the bubble this time around.
• Two years after Mickey McConnell and Omar Samhan made Saint Mary’s the darlings of the 2010 Big Dance, the Gaels return to the Tournament where a Friday date with Purdue awaits.
• Kansas head coach Bill Self is all business as his Jayhawks prepare to face Detroit. In an unusual twist, the 15-seed Titans have a 1-0 advantage over the storied Kansas program in active McDonald’s All-Americans (Ray McCallum, Jr.).

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket. In this post, we have your America East, Conference USA, MEAC, Southland, Big 12 and Pac-12 conference champions. Here’s what you need to know about these recent bid winners.

Missouri

• Big 12 Conference Champion (30-4, 17-4)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #11/#8/#7
• Adjusted Scoring Margin = +16.0
• Likely NCAA Seed: #1-#2

The Big 12 Champions Will Be a Very Tough Out

Three Bruce Pearls of Wisdom.

1. It goes without saying that a 30-win season where Missouri won the Big 12 Tournament is already one of the best years in program history. Whether the Tigers end up as a #1 or #2 seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament, the elephant in the room is that despite 24 NCAA appearances and five trips to the Elite Eight (as recently as 2009), Mizzou has never experienced the grandest stage of a Final Four. Whether this is the year that the program finally breaks through depends on a number of factors, but there’s no question that Frank Haith‘s group has tremendous ability, experience and team chemistry. It will take an exceptional opponent to knock this team out of the Dance.
2. Missouri’s biggest strength is that it owns the most efficient offense in college basketball, scoring over three more points per 100 possessions than the second best team (Kentucky). In playing a solid non-conference and Big 12 schedule, the only team that proved capable of slowing down the Mizzou attack was Kansas State, who beat the Tigers twice by beating them up on every cut, drive and rebound attempt. The Wildcats held the seasoned group of Marcus Denmon, Kim English, Phil Pressey, and Michael Dixon to 11-36 from the field in the first game, and 19-47 in the second game for a total shooting display of 36.1% (they group shoots 47.4% on the season). If Missouri is to be upset in the NCAAs, it will be by a team who plays a similarly bruising, defensive style — trying to run with this oft-spectacular offensive squad will not work.
3. The Tigers’ weakness is its pedestrian defense (ranked #77 in efficiency), but their offense is so explosive that it rarely faces a situation where it has to make a stop to win the game. You might think that its lack of interior size other than Ricardo Ratliffe is another issue, but that’s not been much of a problem for them this season. Ratliffe only fouled out once all year (against Baylor’s huge front line Saturday, incidentally), and with the exception of those two K-State games, the Tigers’ experience and savvy usually allows them to dictate the style and pace of the game. In order to knock this team out, it’s going to take a tremendous defensive effort that can keep up with all of these talented guards. There are only a handful of teams in the country capable of doing that. As a result, this might finally be the year where Missouri faithful experience the wonders of the Final Four.

Colorado

• Pac-12 Conference Champion (23-11, 15-7)
• RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #70/#81/#83
• Likely NCAA Seed: #13-#14

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I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.

We are at roughly the midway mark of TO26 conference championship games.  Fifteen invites to the Big Dance were handed out during a frenzy of activity from Saturday through Wednesday, while another nine will be delivered on Saturday.  Some of the teams who earned the honor are no surprise, but proving that the madness starts early in March, several conference tournaments upended expectations.  As a result, several strong TO26 teams are now contemplating trips to the NIT instead of the NCAAs.

After the updated top 15, we consider the fallout from these developments, exploring the idea of awarding auto bids based on regular season performance and making the at-large case for two regular season conference champions:  Iona and Oral Roberts.

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SPONSORED: Want to see some NCAA Tournament action in person? AT&T is hosting a sweepstakes right now to go to the Final Four AND the National Championship game in New Orleans! To enter go to AT&T’s Sweepstakes Page for details to sign up.

1. Normally when Yahoo! releases an exclusive report we pay attention because we are sure there some salacious details particularly when Charles Robinson is involved. Yesterday’s report by Robinson and Pat Forde falls far short of that. In their investigation, Robinson and Forde found that Syracuse may have failed to adhere to its internal drug testing policy. According to the report, at least ten players since 2001 have failed drug tests and been allowed to play when they should have been suspended if internal policies had been followed. The only reason this story is even somewhat noteworthy is that the authors assert that the NCAA could sanction the school for playing ineligible players although the extent of those penalties and even which teams would be involved is unknown at this time. For their part, the school released a generic statement saying that they are working with the NCAA on this matter.
2. Memphis is starting to look like a dangerous team, having only lost three games since Christmas by a combined six points, and some additional help may be on the way in the form of freshman Adonis Thomas, who has been cleared to play this Thursday. Thomas, out since January with an ankle injury, should provide additional help for the Tigers and should not alter their offense too much, as he is not a high-volume shooter, but it will be worth watching to see what kind of shape he is in and how the dynamic of the team changes with his return.
3. The wheels on the coaching carousel have started and yesterday two schools announced that they were firing their current head coaches. With their season just completed on Saturday, Brown announced that it was firing Jesse Agel after the team went 8-23 overall and 2-12 in the Ivy League to finish second to last. Agel, who went 39-79 in four seasons, had a 33.2% winning percentage, which was the third worst in the program’s history. Perhaps the most interesting part of the announcement is that former Syracuse killer T.J. Sorrentine was announced as the interim head coach, although with the school’s athletic director leaving at the end of June that appointment could be very short-lived.
4. Randy Peele has had significantly more success at Winthrop, but even two Big South Conference titles (2008 and 2010) were not enough to overcome back-to-back losing seasons including a 20-loss season this year, which was the school’s first since the 1997-98 season. So the school announced yesterday that it was firing Peele, who finished 77-82 in five seasons. Unfortunately for Peele, his time at Winthrop was feast or famine, what with the two NCAA Tournament appearances and three losing seasons in his five years there with nothing in between. The school, which owes Peele $165,000 for the last year of his contract, will begin looking for a successor.
5. With the regular season over, John Gasaway decided to run his Tuesday Truths column a day early. In this week’s edition, Gasaway takes a look back at the regular season conference numbers and provides brief previews of the conference tournaments. Most of the numbers are about what you would expect based on the standings, but some statistics (like those for a certain Big 12 team that is horrendous at making in-game defensive adjustments) might surprise a few people.

For the seventh straight week, Kentucky heads the Top 25. The Wildcats breezed through the SEC portion of their schedule and are en route to the #1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. Florida and Baylor are two teams that continue to slide as their defense — or lack thereof — has been exposed. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

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I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.

The lovely little secret of Championship Week is that it unfolds over the course of not seven but 14 days.  While many mid-major conferences are closing out their regular season this weekend, others are capping conference tournament play that began as early as Monday.  The frenzy of action means that there’s lots of hardware to be won, both for regular season excellence and for postseason prowess.  Perhaps most important of all, there are tickets to the Dance on the line, and while none have been secured yet, within just five days, a whopping 14 teams will have earned a trip to the Tournament.  (And possibly 15, depending on how things shake out in the Ivy League.)

After the updated Top 15, we lay out the schedule for every TO26 conference championship game, congratulate the teams that have clinched their regular season conference title, and highlight five things to watch for over the next five days of conference tournament action.

Schedule of TO26 Conference Tournament Championship Games

Here’s your viewer’s guide to conference tournament championship games — where auto bids are won, courts are rushed, and Cinderellas are born.

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