The Other 26: Week 14
Posted by IRenko on March 3rd, 2012
I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on twitter @IRenkoHoops.
The lovely little secret of Championship Week is that it unfolds over the course of not seven but 14 days. While many mid-major conferences are closing out their regular season this weekend, others are capping conference tournament play that began as early as Monday. The frenzy of action means that there’s lots of hardware to be won, both for regular season excellence and for postseason prowess. Perhaps most important of all, there are tickets to the Dance on the line, and while none have been secured yet, within just five days, a whopping 14 teams will have earned a trip to the Tournament. (And possibly 15, depending on how things shake out in the Ivy League.)
After the updated Top 15, we lay out the schedule for every TO26 conference championship game, congratulate the teams that have clinched their regular season conference title, and highlight five things to watch for over the next five days of conference tournament action.
Schedule of TO26 Conference Tournament Championship Games
Here’s your viewer’s guide to conference tournament championship games — where auto bids are won, courts are rushed, and Cinderellas are born.
- Saturday, 3/3 (7 PM, ESPN2): Atlantic Sun (Belmont vs. Florida Gulf Coast)
- Saturday, 3/3 (12 PM, ESPN2): Big South (UNC-Asheville vs. VMI)
- Saturday, 3/3 (1 PM, ESPN2): Ohio Valley (Murray State vs. Tennessee State)
- Sunday, 3/4 (2:05 PM, CBS): Missouri Valley
- Monday, 3/5 (7 PM, ESPN or ESPN2): Colonial
- Monday, 3/5 (7 PM, ESPN or ESPN2): MAAC
- Monday, 3/5 (9 PM, ESPN or ESPN2): West Coast
- Monday, 3/5 (9 PM, ESPN2): Southern
- Tuesday, 3/6 (7 PM, ESPN2): Sun Belt
- Tuesday, 3/6 (9 PM, ESPN2): Summit
- Tuesday, 3/6 (9 PM, ESPN or ESPN2): Horizon
- Wednesday, 3/7 (7 PM, ESPN2): Northeast
- Wednesday, 3/7 (7 PM, CBS Sports): Patriot
- Wednesday, 3/7 (9 PM, ESPN2): Big Sky
- Saturday, 3/10 (1 PM, ESPN2): MEAC
- Saturday, 3/10 (3 PM, ESPN2): Southland
- Saturday, 3/10 (7 PM, NBC Sports): Mountain West
- Saturday, 3/10 (8 PM, ESPN2): MAC
- Saturday, 3/10 (8 PM, ESPNU): SWAC
- Saturday, 3/10 (10 PM, ESPN2): Big West
- Saturday, 3/10 (11 AM, ESPN2): America East
- Saturday, 3/10 (10 PM, ESPN2): WAC
- Sunday, 3/11 (1 PM, CBS): Atlantic 10
Championship Week: What to Watch For
- Bid Burglars — The next three days have major implications for the number of at-large bids that will be available to teams on the Bubble. Murray State, Wichita State, Creighton, St. Mary’s, and Gonzaga are all locks for an at-large bid if they need it. Bubble teams will be hoping that three of these teams will win their conference tournament (OVC, MVC, and West Coast) and therefore will not need the at-large invite. But every conference tournament that is won by an upstart who would not otherwise get an invite to the Dance — say, Tennessee State in the OVC, Illinois State or Evansville in the MVC, and San Francisco (or even BYU) in the West Coast — that means one more at-large bid is off the table.
- Bubble Teams Will Be Rooting Hard for Murray State to Lock Up an Auto Bid on Saturday
- The Rubber Matches — They first have to win their semifinal games, but St. Mary’s & Gonzaga and Wichita State & Creighton are on a collision course for a third meeting of the season in their respective conference tournament championships. The Gaels and Bulldogs split the season series, each winning convincingly at home. The Shockers and Bluejays also split their season series, but in more curious fashion, beating each other on the road. While the Gaels and Shockers won regular season titles, we’re looking forward to seeing the head-to-head rivalries settled on the court. St. Mary’s and Creighton may have more to prove, as both teams followed up a perfect January with a difficult February during which they dropped three games and saw their stock drop.
- Sample Sizes Be Damned — You don’t always have to wait for late March for bracket-busting upsets with dramatic implications. The flip side to the excitement of awarding auto-bids in conference tournaments is the possibility that a dominant conference leader will see its NCAA Tournament hopes turn into an NIT consolation prize in the space of a couple hours on a neutral floor, or a mediocre team from the middle of the pack will suddenly find itself headed to the Big Dance. Sample sizes be damned. Saturday alone has the potential for two such surprises, as unlikely upstarts Florida Gulf Coast and VMI — both of whom posted 8-10 marks in conference play — look to win an auto bid when they face conference leaders Belmont and UNC-Asheville in the A-Sun and Big South tournament championships.
- The Known Unknowns — T026 conference tournaments fall into a few categories. There are the ones where strong teams who don’t win out can fall back on an at-large bid (MVC, WCC). And there are the ones where clear favorites try to fulfill their destiny with an auto bid (MAAC, SoCon, Sun Belt, Summit). But perhaps the most exciting conference tournaments are those with no clear favorite and where a championship is the difference between a Tournament bid and the NIT at best. This combination of high stakes and unpredictability distinguishes a few of this year’s early tournaments, the most prominent of which is the CAA. Drexel won the regular season title, but did so on the strength of an unbalanced schedule, playing VCU and George Mason once each, with both games coming at home. No one would be surprised if any of those teams — or even ODU — were dancing at center court in Richmond on Monday night. And at the moment, it doesn’t look like anyone who’s not dancing will be able to snag an auto-bid. The other big entry in this category is the Horizon League, where Valpo won the regular season title, but hardly in dominating fashion. No one would be surprised if any of the other remaining semifinalists — Cleveland State, Butler, Detroit — emerged victorious, and the ones who don’t surely won’t be Tournament-bound. Finally, there’s the Big Sky, where Montana and Weber State are clear co-favorites; but you’d be hard-pressed to give either clear odds should they meet a third time for all the marbles.
- The 14-Game Tournament — The Ivy League, as readers are likely aware, is the only conference that does not have a postseason tournament and, therefore, awards its auto bid to the regular season champion. Harvard has been the presumptive favorite all year, but that all changed in a big way last weekend, when Penn upset the Crimson on the road to pull into a tie for first place. Harvard has one game to play (at Cornell), while Penn has two left (vs. Yale, at Princeton). If the teams are tied at the end of the regular season, the League will see its second straight one-game playoff to determine who heads to the Dance. Last year’s playoff was a heartbreaker for Harvard, as they lost to Princeton on a buzzer-beater. The Crimson, frankly, should be furious with themselves. As noted above, every other conference-leading team in the country lacks the luxury of earning a Tournament bid on the strength of their two-month regular season performance, and here, Harvard has blown the chance to do just that.
Conference Hardware
We love March for its madness, but let’s not forget the teams who proved themselves to be their league’s best by getting it done, week in and week out, over a stretch of two months (or more). With wins on Saturday, Long Beach State and UT Arlington will have the special distinction of going undefeated during conference play.
In approximate order of conference strength:
- Missouri Valley: Wichita State
- West Coast: St. Mary’s
- WAC: Nevada
- CAA: Drexel
- Horizon: Valparaiso
- Atlantic Sun: Belmont
- MAC East: Akron
- MAC West: Eastern Michigan
- Summit League: Oral Roberts
- Sun Belt East: MTSU
- Sun Belt West: Arkansas Little Rock
- MAAC: Iona
- Big West: Long Beach State
- Patriot: Bucknell
- Southern North: UNC-Greensboro
- Southern South: Davidson
- Ohio Valley: Murray State
- Big South: UNC-Asheville
- Northeast: Long Island
- Big Sky: Montana
- Southland West: UT-Arlington
- America East: Stony Brook
- MEAC: Savannah State
- SWAC: Mississippi Valley State
Regular season titles in the Mountain West, Atlantic-10, Conference USA, Ivy League, and Southland East Division are still up for grabs, heading into the final weekend of regular season.
