1. The NCAA is discussing the highly-anticipated question as to how to structure the new 68-team NCAA Tournament, and specifically, the four play-in games.  We’ve written extensively about the options on the table (and preferences), but in reading yesterday that there are three possibilities — slotting the last eight auto-bids, the last eight at-larges, or a hybrid of the two (interesting…) — we’re happy that they’re considering the right questions.  In reading the tea leaves, it’s apparent that they are concerned about the same low-RPI leagues ending up in the four PiGs every year, but a proposed “rotation system” seems very contrived.  Does a SWAC team get a bye into the first round as a #15 seed regardless of resume if they’re in the PiG three straight years?  And what of this hybrid option — how would that look?
2. Was the Class of 2007 one of the greatest high school classes of all-time?  It’s difficult to make that statement just three years out, but so far, as this Basketball Prospectus piece shows, the star power of that class (Love, Mayo, Beasley, Gordon, Griffin, etc.) leaves most other classes in the dust.
3. Alabama’s Justin Knox will transfer to either Georgia Tech or UNC after the Tide program refused to grant him a waiver so that he could go to UAB, his top choice.  Knox states that he believes the transfer will help his goal of reaching the NBA, but if that’s true, we’re not really sure what he would have been able to get in Birmingham that he couldn’t get in Tuscaloosa.  Or what he thinks he can get in the ACC that he couldn’t get in the SEC.  The whole thing is just very strange, and Alabama fans are convinced that UAB was recruiting him while he was still a member of the Tide program.
4. With the signing deadline passed this week, here’s your top 25 recruiting classes for 2010.  Kentucky is obviously #1 and Memphis #2 with loads of talent coming in at every position, but the ACC (four of the top ten) and Big Ten (four of the top fifteen) appear to be the leagues with the strongest influx of talent arriving.  In a related piece, Luke Winn lists his top ten developments of the spring recruiting period this year.
5. Speaking of Memphis, guard Roburt Sallie is leaving the program to transfer to a school closer to his hometown of Sacramento, California, or to pursue professional opportunities overseas.  He is due to receive his degree in August, and if he does so, he will not have to sit out the transfer year and will therefore be eligible to play college basketball in 2010-11.  Mike Montgomery on line two.

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Pac-10 and Mountain West Conferences and an occasional contributor.

Overview

College sports fans dodged a major bullet last week when the NCAA announced that the men’s basketball tournament would only be expanding to 68 entrants, rather than the 96-team field that had been widely rumored. However, the face of college sports as we know it is still in jeopardy, as the specter of widespread conference realignment still looms, with the much-speculated-upon expansion of the Big Ten as the key domino that could start a wave of changes leaving the college sports landscape drastically altered.

The elephant in the room issue is the consolidation of power away from the existing six BCS conferences and into a smaller number of “superconferences” with the possibility looming that once any realignment sorts itself out and we’ve got four 16-team conferences, those conferences break away from the NCAA and form their own structure. As Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins puts it: “At some time, the major conferences are going to have their own quasi-NCAA. They’re going to do their own thing.” Former Syracuse AD Jake Crouthamel was even more specific, saying that eventually the Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Pac-10 would expand and ultimately leave the NCAA, even to the point of forming their own competing basketball tournament: “If you look at the history of what’s been going on for the last decade, I think it’s leading in that direction.”

We Promise It Won't Get This Complicated

The potential expansion of conferences detailed below is not the first shot fired in the consolidation of power, but the next step in an already-existing series of moves that has widened the financial gap between the biggest athletic departments and the rest of the supporting cast. And, as those at the top get bigger and bigger, the underdogs not only fall behind in terms of funding, but they may ultimately be left completely behind: no more Boise State and Utah to steal BCS bowl spots from big-money institutions during the winter, and no more Butler and George Mason sneaking into the Final Four in the spring. While that type of doomsday scenario is still several decision points down the line, what happens in the Big Ten over the next twelve months or so could be the monumental tipping point to drastically move things in that direction.

At present, the most widely rumored targets for Big Ten expansion are Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse from the Big East and Nebraska and Missouri from the Big 12, although as always occurs when the Big Ten thinks about expansion, Notre Dame is in the mix and likely their number one choice. With the Pac-10 also in the midst of contemplating expansion within the next year, these moves could send a ripple effect throughout all of the Division I conferences causing some conferences to get bigger, others to contract, and even some to disappear.  While the specifics remain conjecture and speculation at this point, there are enough common-sense scenarios out there to fuel theories to create one of the most helter-skelter flowcharts ever seen. We’ll take a look conference-by-conference at what could happen, and what kind of fallout might be created by each move, starting with our eleven midwestern friends.

Big Ten

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany confirmed last Wednesday that his conference is considering not only expanding to 12, but also perhaps even 14 or 16 teams. While some of the rationale for the expansion would be the addition of a football championship game for more revenue, the accumulation of more content and more markets for the Big Ten Network is probably more important to their plans. Delany noted that while discussions for this expansion are ongoing, the 12-18 month timetable that was originally announced in December is still the current framework.

Starting with the first domino, there is little doubt that the Fighting Irish would be the Big Ten’s first choice and the most logical fit for the conference, in terms of geography, academics and, frankly, football. Notre Dame and the Big Ten have flirted with each other many times in the past, but there is likely a greater chance that they will consummate their relationship this time around than any time before. For the Big Ten, the attraction is obvious: a huge fan base in historic “Big Ten country,” a ton of athletic history, and excellent academics. For Notre Dame, however, the question is a lot tougher. The Irish have been a football independent throughout their history and current athletic director Jack Swarbrick recently said that their “highest priority is maintaining football independence.” Notre Dame is currently in the middle of a television contract with NBC for the rights to broadcast home football games, a contract that runs through 2015 and an issue that will need to be confronted somehow if the Irish are eventually invited and accept Big Ten membership. The amount of the NBC deal (about $15 million annually) is not prohibitive enough to prevent them from considering membership in the Big Ten, whose member schools currently receive about $20 million annually from their television contracts. It is even possible that if the Big Ten and Notre Dame can come to an agreement, all this expansion talk will end right there: Notre Dame joins up, the Big Ten stops at 12 teams, the Big East poaches a team from CUSA like Central Florida as an additional football school and geographic partner to South Florida or a basketball-only school from the A-10 like Rhode Island or Massachusetts and the end-of-the-world scenario is averted. At present, however, it is being reported that Notre Dame is not being considered in the Big Ten’s expansion plans (a report that nobody in their right mind believes), but if Notre Dame is interested, the Big Ten will certainly be interested as well.

Figure 1: Big Ten Best Case Scenario

However, it is also realistic that with or without Notre Dame, the Big Ten is aiming for 14 or 16 teams to become the first superconference. While the addition of teams such as Missouri and Nebraska makes the most geographic sense, this expansion thing is not really about logic but about dollars, and Delany seems most interested in all the potential viewers that the bigger east coast markets present — notably Rutgers and Syracuse, but also Pittsburgh and potentially Connecticut. Adding three or even all four of those schools would effectively kill Big East football as we know it and potentially damage the Big East basketball enough to persuade a fence-sitting Notre Dame to leap off onto the Big Ten side as well. Swarbick himself admitted in March that “there are things that are large enough to challenge our ability to remain independent and remain in the Big East.” All four (or even three) of those flagship Big East programs bolting for the Big Ten could be one of those “large enough” things.

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The Coaching Carousel keeps on a-spinnin’. Fox Sports’ Jeff Goodman reported on Saturday that Pittsburgh associate head coach Tom Herrion has been hired at Marshall.  The Thundering Herd were a nice surprise from the past season, posting a 24-10 record (11-5 CUSA) in 2009-10 under Donnie Jones, who just left for Central Florida after three seasons at Marshall.  With stud freshman and national blocks leader Hassan Whiteside having declared for the NBA draft, and leading scorer Tyler Wilkerson and starting guard Chris Lutz both lost to graduation, Herrion will have his work cut out for him in Huntington.

Ohio State assistant Alan Major will take over at Charlotte and try to get that school back to the NCAA for the first time in six years, which shouldn’t be too hard with the pending expansion.  The 49ers were 19-12 under Bobby Lutz last season and were in the talk for an at-large bid late in the year out of a very tough Atlantic 10, but they put an end to such speculation by dropping seven of their last eight games.  This is Major’s first head coaching job, and it will be interesting to see what kind of talent he brings to Charlotte having spent time under one of the better recruiters in the game in Thad Matta at both Xavier and OSU.

Three more declare, but look for one to return. In a move that surprised nobody, Georgia Tech freshman forward Derrick Favors declared for the NBA draft, joining fellow Yellow Jacket Gani Lawal in that endeavor.  Favors was in the top 50 in both blocks (2.1 BPG) and field goal percentage (61.1%) as a freshman and was second on the Georgia Tech squad (behind Lawal) in scoring at 12.4 PPG.  With those numbers, plus a 6’10, 246-pound frame, Favors is projected to be the third pick in the draft by NBADraft.net.

Mississippi’s Terrico White is also headed for the NBA draft, but don’t be surprised to see him back in Oxford next year.  The 6’5 sophomore forward is not hiring an agent, and it sounds like he’s going through the process just to be evaluated in order to see where he ranks and where he needs to improve his game.  Can’t blame him at all.  Though he doesn’t appear in either round on the current NBADraft.net list, his name did show up there from time to time over last season and he’s listed as the seventh pick on their 2011 draft.  White averaged 15.1 PPG and 4.6 RPG last year for the Rebels and his stock will certainly improve with a year to develop further expertise in the backcourt.  One man who won’t be back next year is VCU’s Larry Sanders.  The 6’11 and 235-pound junior center averaged 14.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 2.1 BPG for the Rams last year and says he plans on hiring an agent.  NBA Draft.net has him projected as a late first-rounder.

Few college basketball fans are born with their love for the game. For most aficionados, at some point on the way from infancy to college hoops fan, there is a moment. A single play, shot, player, game, or event at which point they say to themselves, “I will always have this in my life.” Because it is the time of the season that carries the most gravitas, these things often happen in March. We asked some of our friends and correspondents: what was the thing that turned you into a lifelong college basketball fan? What was your…March Moment? We’ll be posting some of their answers for the rest of the month.

In this installment, Back Door Cuts contributor Mike Walsh describes how his March Moment changed his life and put him on a path from which he’s yet to stray:

Without a doubt, my defining March moment is from the 2001 NCAA tournament. It was my sophomore year at Saint Joseph’s University and as the assistant sports editor at the student paper, I was lucky enough to travel to San Diego to cover our boys as the No. 9 seed in the West bracket.

In the first round, the Hawks topped eighth-seeded Georgia Tech. It was the first tournament game I ever saw in person and watching my team win from press row was icing on the cake. In the second round, St. Joe’s drew No. 1 seed Stanford. On paper, it shouldn’t have been close. In the first half, it didn’t look like it was going to be.

But then, I and everyone else in the arena witnessed an unforgettable performance.

You know those games where the whole arena is buzzing with the prospect of an upset in the making? This turned out to be one of those games. You know those players who are suddenly thrust into the spotlight after a stellar showing on the NCAA’s biggest stage? St. Joe’s junior guard Marvin O’Connor was that player.

O'Connor (in red) in a Big 5 game against Penn

On the shoulders of the scorching hot shooting guard, who tied a career high with 37 points on 15-of-20 shooting, the Hawks wiped out a 14-point first half deficit and gave the top-seeded Cardinal all they could handle in the second half. For a while, it felt like it could be one of those rare instances where a No. 1 seed was sent packing on the first weekend.

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Hewitt Turns Down St. John’s.  It always seemed like a drop in prestige from our viewpoint, but you never know the myriad factors that influence a coach’s decision, so we thought there was a reasonable chance Hewitt would bolt Atlanta for Jamaica (New York, that is).  Turns out that he’s sticking with his Yellow Jacket home after all, as Andy Katz reported today that Hewitt will not be taking the SJU offer.  Once St. John’s gives up the pipe dreams of courting Rick Pitino or Billy Donovan, the school is expected to go hard after Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech or Steve Donahue at Cornell. 

Few college basketball fans are born with their love for the game. For most aficionados, at some point on the way from infancy to college hoops fan, there is a moment. A single play, shot, player, game, or event at which point they say to themselves, “I will always have this in my life.” Because it is the time of the season that carries the most gravitas, these things often happen in March. We asked some of our friends and correspondents: what was the thing that turned you into a lifelong college basketball fan? What was your…March Moment? We’ll be posting some of their answers for the rest of the month.

In this edition, RTC correspondent Ray Floriani remembers a New York City night in 1971 that altered his perception of winning and losing, how he was affected by both, and how it all cemented his love for our game:

NEW YORK CITY – The intensity, excitement and general myraid of emotions packed into that March evening will probably never be duplicated. It was the ultimate heartbreaker. At the same time, this was the one. The game and experience that certifiably had yours truly hooked on basketball, notably college basketball, as the favorite sport. One that transformed a casual observer into a devout follower.

Mention “the Georgia Tech game in the NIT” and any St. Bonaventure fan who can remember gas being under a buck a gallon will recall the year (1971) , the date (March 25), the circumstance and how it played out.  A little background…

The 1970-71 season was my freshman year at St. Bonaventure. The previous March the Bonnies made it to the Final Four and if Bob Lanier hadn’t been injured late in the East Regional final against Villanova, who knows? UCLA’s national championship run might have been interrupted.

The team lost Lanier and a top notch lead guard in Billy Kalbaugh. There was optimism though as the returnees had experienced winning and approached the season with a positive mindset. Among the veterans returning for coach Larry Weise were Greg Gary, Matt Gantt, Dale Tepas, and Paul Hoffman. Gantt, at 6-5, was the big man.  An incredible leaper, Gantt was the prototype “frequent flyer” who could make life miserable for opponents five (or more) inches taller. Sophomore Carl Jackson was up from the freshman team (they had them back then). Overall, there was talent.

I had the good fortune to get into the program as one of the team managers.  It was a job I did four years in high school and would do four years at Bonaventure. The season went extremely well with the Bonnies, ranked high as 11th at one point, finishing 18-5.  Back then 25 teams made the NCAA tournament and with the East basically a group of independents, as Bonaventure was, you needed a great record to get in.  The Bonnies accepted an NIT bid. Again, in that day it was a 16 team field with all games contested at Madison Square Garden.

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Sylven Landesberg of Virginia has decided to leave the school and turn pro this year.  He was already suspended for academic problems, and there was little expectation that he would be able to come back next year anyway.  The problem is that he’s by no means a first round lock, and may not even be a second rounder either.  According to this report, though, he may opt to play in Europe or Israel, though.

South Florida’s Dominique Jones is exploring the option of entering the NBA Draft, but he’s leaving open the possibility of a return to school.  He will have until May 8 to decide this year.  He averaged 21 PPG this year and had a mid-season series of explosive games that really caught people’s attention.  He’s currently projected in the late 1st/early 2d round window.

Kansas’ Xavier Henry hasn’t yet made a formal decison, but his coach Bill Self stated today that his star wing is ready from a skills standpoint to move on the NBA.  KU is already losing Sherron Collins to graduation and Cole Aldrich is expected to make his decision in the next week, but we’re sure that Self will reload quickly and have the Jayhawks back in the title hunt very soon.

In a maneuver that doesn’t make a lot of sense to us unless Georgia Tech head coach Paul Hewitt is looking for a way out of Atlanta, he will talk with St. John’s on Wednesday about the possibility of becoming the next head honcho of the Red Storm.  He is a New York guy, but this would be in no way a lateral move, as Georgia Tech has been light years ahead of the Queens-based program for the better part of two decades.

Money must really talk, otherwise how else to explain leaving a successful CAA program for a moribund A10 one? Fordham has offered its vacant head coaching position to Hofstra’s Tom Pecora, and Pecora is expected to visit the school on Wednesday and could formally be named the coach at that time.   You’ll recall that Fordham recently upped its basketball budget in an effort to lure a bigger-name coach to its Bronx campus.

Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 16 of the second round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are the Sunday games.

12:10 pm – #1 Syracuse vs. #8 Gonzaga  (Buffalo pod)

In the CBS national game to start the day, everyone will get this very enticing game between Syracuse and Gonzaga.  Given the way this year is winding up, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Orange without their big man Arinze Onuaku found itself on the short end of the score around 2:30 pm today.  But we still have faith in Syracuse even without the talented center and we think that Jim Boeheim’s team is too good to fall short of the Final Four this early.  The primary problem that the Zags are going to have is one they didn’t have to worry as much about with Florida State, and that is in stopping the powerful SU offense.  With offensive scoring threats at all five positions, Syracuse is in a far more advantageous position than FSU was (with their limited offense) when Gonzaga caught fire on Friday — if the Zags want to get into a shootout with Syracuse, that’s not likely to end well for them. Still, with the way the Big East has had so many early round troubles, and the WCC looking great with St. Mary’s already in the Sweet Sixteen, we’re not ready to dismiss the Zags based on that alone.  The Syracuse zone is likely to be something that Mark Few’s team has not seen with such athletes all season, so even with their ability to put the ball in the hole, we hesitate to think the Zags can consistently score on it.

The Skinny: Gonzaga will push the Orange, but we still like this team to advance and make a serious push for the national title in coming weeks.

2:20 pm – #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

You might not see it on their faces, but the Buckeyes are smiling.  Northern Iowa’s removal of Kansas puts Ohio State in the driver’s seat in the Midwest region.  That said, there’s still no way Thad Matta and Evan Turner are going to let the rest of that team look past their opponents and assume an open road to Indianapolis.  Good thing, because Georgia Tech showed us that they’re not just made up of Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and a bunch of suckers.  The Yellow Jackets shot 2-10 from the three point line but balanced that by holding Big 12 player of the year James Anderson to a 3-12 shooting night, 0-6 from beyond the three-point arc, and an overall 11 points.  But the most impressive aspect of Georgia Tech’s performance on Friday night — by FAR — was the fact that they went to the free throw line 25 times — and hit 24 of them!  It wasn’t just Lawal and Favors.  Tech played nine players, and eight of them shot at least one free throw.  Evan Turner isn’t just the player of the year in his conference, though — he’s likely the national POY, so the Tech task is that much tougher.  Turner wasn’t himself in their first round game against UCSB, going 2-13 and posting only nine points (though he did contribute 10 boards and five assists).  He’s looking to break out, and knows he’ll have to be at his best.  Lawal and Favors, though, will be looking to get Dallas Lauderdale, Jon Diebler, and Turner in foul trouble early and open poke some holes in that OSU front line.

The Skinny:  You probably don’t want to go with our Midwest picks, since yesterday we took Kansas and Ohio.  It’s not exactly going out on a limb to say that this will be a great second round game, but that stat line of Turner’s shows you that he can play such an important role on the team even when he’s not scoring.  For Tech to win, they’d have to turn in a similar performance at the free throw line, keep Turner under wraps and coax him into a supporting role again, and cool down Jon Diebler.  That’s a tough trifecta to pull off.  We don’t see it happening.  But we didn’t see Northern Iowa dismissing Kansas, either.

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How’s your bracket?  Probably looking pretty sweet if you went to undergrad at St. Mary’s and then took a master’s at Northern Iowa.  Have they stopped partying at UNI yet?  Or campaniling?  Or whatever they do there?  And if not, who could blame them?

That was yesterday, though.  The Panthers and Gaels will be receiving their Official Cinderella starter handbooks in the mail in a couple of days, so the matter now turns to the Sunday games, and any possible candidates that could join them.  Your lineup:

• #1 Syracuse vs #8 Gonzaga
• #2 Ohio State vs #10 Georgia Tech
• #4 Maryland vs #5 Michigan State
• #2 West Virginia vs #10 Missouri
• #4 Wisconsin vs #12 Cornell
• #3 Pittsburgh vs #6 Xavier
• #4 Purdue vs #5 Texas A&M
• #1 Duke vs #8 California

Will Northern Iowa’s dismissal of Kansas inspire other underdogs to greater heights?  Or will it cause the higher seeds to sharpen their focus and be even warier of the upstarts?  Keep in mind, things always start and end a tad earlier on Second Round Sunday, and there’s that glut of four games that all start within 30 minutes of each other in the early afternoon.  But no worry, if you can’t see them all — we’ll be here all day, talking about them, updating this post every few minutes, and looking for your comments.  Hard to believe we’ll have whittled the field of 64 down to 16 by Sunday night, and the events of Saturday should drive the point home that we need to enjoy this while it’s here.  We’re here to help.  We’ll start updating the post a few minutes before the first tipoff, and we hope to see you here.

12:00: Here we go, folks!  Day 2, second round.  The day starts with ‘Cuse/’Zags and you see the rest of the lineup above.  Syracuse, Duke, Ohio State…you’ve been put on notice by Northern Iowa.  Let’s see what happens.

12:10: One thing that’s got to make you happy if you’re a Syracuse fan is that Wesley Johnson is being VERY aggressive with the basketball.  Hit his first two.

12:18: See, I don’t think Matt Boldin needs to fire from three for the Zags to put their best foot forward, today.  I think they’ll be better off if he does more creating and dishing, and we know he picks up points that way.

12:27: Goodness, right now it’s Wesley Johnson versus Elias Harris.  Johnson has Syracuse’s first ten and Harris has just made the baseline his second home.

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Alright, we’re through with three-fourths of the first round, and it’s time for the Friday night session.  This round of games always has some interesting television matchups as CBS tries to maximize interest in the after-work crowd.  We’re going to be tracking all of the games but we’ll move around to the most interesting ones as appropriate.  Here’s the lineup:

• #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
• #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
• #1 Duke vs. #16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
• #5 Michigan State vs. #12 New Mexico State
• #1 Syracuse vs. #16 Vermont
• #2 Ohio State vs. #15 UC Santa Barbara
• #8 Louisville vs. #9 California
• #4 Maryland vs. #13 Houston

Let’s tip it off and see where it takes us…

7:15:  FSU-Gonzaga has already started and Gus Johnson is just waiting to explode over something.  I think that he senses this game might be his best chance tonight, with Vermont-Syracuse at his venue next.  One piece of news is that Norm Roberts has been fired at St. John’s, making him the second NYC-area Big East coach to be let go within the past few days.

7:21: So far, Gonzaga offense >> FSU defense.  A 9-0 run by the Zags has given them a nice early margin.  Georgia Tech is pitching a shutout over on the other channel, 6-0 so far.  With both of those ACC teams, you’re never really sure what you’re going to get.  So far it looks like “good” GT and “bad FSU.”

7:31: Goodness, the Seminole offense is ugly.  If they get themselves down too far here, they’re never going to be able to come back.  Quick aside, I was just thinking about this and they confirmed it.  The Big 12 is 5-1 right now, with the lone loss coming with Texas in overtime against Wake Forest.  The others: Big East (3-3), SEC (2-2), Big Ten (3-1), A10 (1-2), MWC (2-2), ACC (1-1).

7:37: The Zag offense is smokin’ hot right now – well over 50% from the field.  This one isn’t looking very good for FSU whatsoever.  Focusing over on Ga Tech-Oklahoma State for a while, which is at 15-15 at the moment.  Our sense on this game was that it would be a close game with OSU pulling it out at the end.  We’ll see whether that rings true.

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