The Spiders Perhaps Weren't As Much of a Surprise After All

One eight seed made the Sweet Sixteen. The rest of the Sweet Sixteen party crashers? Two eleven seeds, a ten, and a twelve, including Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond. If you tally up the rest of the seeds, this looks pretty much like Silver’s predicted distribution. The structural inequalities of the bracket should have told us to expect more second round (excuse me, “third round” upsets) from the seeds in the 10-12 range. Of course, are these even really upsets? The Pittsburgh loss to Butler was a genuine shock but the rest of the “upsets” really seem to fall upon the coin flip in the flat part of the s-curve.  Silver notes that the composite computer “power ratings” show essentially the same difference between first and second seeds as between the fifth and thirteenth seeds. What this means is what we knew all along: the best teams are in a whole separate class from the bulk of the teams in the tournament, while the majority of teams are at close to the same level. This is a long way to get to this essential point: We shouldn’t be surprised to see VCU, Richmond, Marquette or Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen.

We also shouldn’t act like the bracket design is done affecting who makes the Final Four and who wins the championship.  Ken Pomeroy was quick to run the log5 probabilities of the remaining sixteen and had some interesting findings. While you would think that winning two games would have increased every team’s chances of winning it all, you’d only be mostly right. San Diego State and Kentucky actually saw their chances at a championship drop as the biggest obstacles in their path to the championship refused to be upset. Conversely, Kansas’s location in the decimated Southwest Region has made them a near-prohibitive favorite to make the Final Four. Likewise, Pittsburgh’s ignoble fall in an already weak Southeast Region has given the Wisconsin Badgers a real shot at a championship. The Badgers’ calculated chances of winning it all went from a mere 2.5% to 9.5%. Of course, technically, that’s a tiny increase in proportion to the change in VCU’s chances. The Rams went from having a 0.0005% chance at a championship to a 0.2% chance at winning the big one. While those are still long odds, their chances of winning increased 400-fold. So that’s worth something.

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As you’re no doubt aware, we’ve had our cadre of correspondents traveling around the country to each of the eight NCAA sites over the weekend. We’ve asked the guys to produce a weekend diary of the games they witnessed including analysis, commentary and opinion concerning the sights and sounds at their venues. Our hope is that the diaries will give you insights into the games that you may not have otherwise had from watching them on television or catching the highlights package afterward. Let us know how we do…

Note: for all of the opening weekend diaries, click here.

Location: Cleveland, OH
Round: Third
Teams: Ohio State, George Mason, Marquette, Syracuse
Date: 20 March 2011
Correspondent: John Stevens

It Wasn't To Be This Time Around

• My goodness, what a difference 48 hours makes for George Mason. They went from the heights to the depths so fast that I hope they adjusted their gas mixtures. On Friday, after their victory over Villanova, people were talking about GMU as an Elite Eight sleeper and I even heard some radio chatter about how they looked like a team who could rekindle the magic from that Final Four season in 2006. They even got a great call from Gus Johnson in that game. Then they ran into Ohio State. And for about nine minutes, they actually played Ohio State. It was a bloodbath thereafter. In the post-game talk, GMU players Ryan Pearson and Cam Long looked like victims of a brainwashing, like two fellows who has just been abducted by aliens and then had their memories erased. They knew something had happened to them, but they still weren’t sure what. Their expressions were a mixture of confusion, disbelief, and anger regarding how they could run into a team that good AND that hot on this night. Everyone in the gym knew that the talent disparity between GMU and OSU wasn’t THAT big, but, as Long said, “We scouted David Lighty as their FOURTH option, ‘a likely shooter.’ But sometimes when you have that night, you have that night.” That’s the most disappointing thing for GMU and their fans. At WORST, you hope to catch OSU on an average night, or hey, maybe you’ll luck out and run into them when they’re off. But when you catch that Ohio State team on a night in which it seemed they could not miss even if they tried, well…you feel like you’ve been cheated something. And Gus got to rest those pipes.
• I think that serves as further evidence that Ohio State, despite being the best team in the country for the entire second half of the season (and probably most of the first half of it), has improved, themselves. They haven’t remained static at the top, they’ve gotten better as the season progressed. What I’m specifically talking about is that, before the Buckeyes’ game against the Patriots, there was a buzz in Quicken Loans Arena. The Buckeye fans with whom I spoke were fearful of Mike Morrison on the inside and they thought the GMU guards might have been quick enough to stay in front of their own (they didn’t know that Luke Hancock had been declared a scratch). They liked their squad’s chances, obviously. But on the other side, you could also see the Mason fans licking their chops and rubbing their hands together as if anticipating something miraculous. Even a few of the media types I spoke with wondered if this was setting up like Northern Iowa/Kansas. Well, after about nine minutes of game time, that buzz in the arena was replaced with the droning hum of the well-maintained and well-oiled OSU machine. There were reasons the Ohio State players could have felt vulnerable and/or lost focus. Pittsburgh, a 1-seed, had been sent home the night before. It would have been easy to look past Mason to a waiting Kentucky team. Take your pick of several others. Lose focus, though? Yeah. You saw the result.
• I can’t wait until next year for Aaron Craft. I know there are still some excellent Aaron Craft moments to come this year, but even without fellows like Diebler, Lauderdale, and probably Sullinger around, Ohio State will still be a solid team and Craft will have plenty of people to pass to. He’ll start, and he’ll likely take on more of the scoring load. There has been no Buckeye, and few players at all, who I’ve enjoyed watching more this season. I was happy to see and hear the Craft-love steadily increase throughout the year, though I still maintain it’s still not at the level it should be. For my money, there’s your 1st team All-American point guard for next season. After the win over George Mason, fans and media alike were dizzy over Craft’s 15 assists, especially two of them — a 35-foot strike out of a double-team to an open teammate, and a roll-sling to another Buckeye from a ball he dived for after losing the handle, a pass he made from his backside. It’s an amazing number, but I guess when your teammates are drilling everything you set up for them, it shouldn’t come as that big of a shock.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• On Sunday, Ohio State blew out a very solid George Mason squad. Because of this, many are wondering if anyone will be able to stop the Buckeyes. It will be almost impossible if they keep putting up performances like Sunday.
• Former Tennessee point guard Bobby Maze believes that current Ohio State guard Aaron Craft is responsible for turning Bruce Pearl into the NCAA for Pearl’s illegal recruitment barbecue. Maze’s reasoning is that Craft grew upset when the Vols beat the Buckeyes in last season’s Sweet 16. Is Maze simply defending the man who brought him in or is there some truth to his allegations?
• Kentucky has a storied history of impact freshmen. One publication believes that it must be asked if Brandon Knight is the best freshman in Wildcat history. It may be a bit of an exaggeration, but the article is definitely worth a read.
• Everyone knows North Carolina can score points in transition. Just about every team led by Roy Williams, whether it was his teams at Kansas or those at Chapel Hill since he took over in 2003,  lives and dies by its ability to get up and down the court in a hurry. Marquette head coach Buzz Williams believes the key to his squad’s Sweet 16 matchup with the Tar Heels will be stopping transition opportunities.
• ACC Defensive Player of the Year John Henson has some attributes other teams cannot prepare for: timing, instincts, and an 88-inch wingspan. Henson has been a stalwart defending the interior all season and it will be hard for Marquette to drive to the bucket with him standing in the way.

Southeast

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If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com and we will update the post throughout the day.

East Region

• #1 Ohio State 98, #8 George Mason 66: “Playing at home in Cleveland, David Lighty led four Buckeyes in double figures with 25 points on a magma-esque 7/7 from distance (ties career high) and 9/10 from the floor overall as Ohio State sent another message to the rest of the NCAA tournament field via a 98-66 demolition of George Mason.” (Eleven Warriors or GMU Hoops)
• #11 Marquette 66, #3 Syracuse 61: “Marquette played an inspired game tonight against Syracuse and defeated their Big East brethren to earn their 14th Sweet 16 in school history and their first since Tom Crean’s Warriors went to the Final Four in 2003. The final score read 66-62 and it was every bit that close for most of the contest. Syracuse jumped out to a 7-0 lead and lead by as many as 10, but Marquette fought back to tie the game at 21-21. The remainder of the contest saw 11 lead changes in this back and forth affair.” (Cracked Sidewalks)
• #4 Kentucky 71, #5 West Virginia 63: “For Kentucky, this was a story of two halves. The first half, the Wildcats had a few minutes late in the period where they kind of gave up a little and allowed the Mountaineers unimpeded access to the basket. Combined with a couple of calls that went against UK, the Mountaineers put the ‘Cats in a big, eight point hole at the half. Why do I say big? Because you know that when you play West Virginia, you are going to get a low-possession grind-it-out game where big runs are fairly rare.” (A Sea of Blue)

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Well, Saturday’s games were a mishmash between unbelievable endings (seriously, unbelievable), competitive contests, and Jimmer from thirty feet.  What will Sunday have on tap for us?

Ed. note – some of the later games will be added as the day moves forward…

#2 North Carolina vs. #7 Washington – East Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 12:15 pm ET on CBS.

Arguably the best matchup of the second round takes place in Charlotte on Sunday with Washington squaring off in a semi-road game against North Carolina. One factor to immediately keep in mind is the quick turnaround for the Huskies, who had to play after midnight on Friday and prepare for a noon tip not even two days later. While this matchup could produce a high number of possessions and end-to-end action, a breakneck pace may do more harm for the underdog Huskies than anything. When the Heels are vulnerable, it’s when teams keep them glued in the halfcourt and unable to execute Roy Williams’ secondary break, where Kendall Marshall has proven himself as one of the best fullcourt passers and fast break orchestrators since replacing Larry Drew in January. The point guard duel is absolutely fascinating. Isaiah Thomas has whittled down his turnovers this season and is playing more like a true floor general, while Marshall’s insertion into the starting lineup has boosted his supporting cast and sent the Heels on an upward trajectory. While this game could escalate into the 80s if Washington’s wings get going from deep, North Carolina emerges on top because of their defense. Marshall’s story, the emergence of John Henson and the rapid improvement of Harrison Barnes shooting the basketball have been the primary headlines, but UNC has been rock solid on defense since November, ranking seventh in the country in efficiency on that end of the floor while the Huskies lag behind at 48th. Down the stretch in a tight ball game, we simply expect the Heels to generate more stops and move on to Newark.

The RTC Certified Pick:  North Carolina.

#1 Duke vs. #8 Michigan – West Region Third Round (at Charlotte, NC) – 2:45 pm ET on CBS.

With Kyrie Irving, who returned on Friday for his first action since early December when he injured his big toe, the Blue Devils are an entirely different team. Not that they needed a ton of help, with National Player of the Year candidate Nolan Smith having filled in admirably at the point, but with Irving back, Smith can shift back over to his more natural two and bigs like Miles and Mason Plumlee will get a boost from Irving’s penetration ability. It remains to be seen exactly what Irving’s role will be for Mike Krzyzewski in close games, but without a doubt, Irving gives him another major weapon. For the Wolverines, coming off a thorough second half destruction of Tennessee on Friday, it all begins and ends with Darius Morris. He’s Michigan’s leading scorer and assist man, and shutting him down will be Duke’s primary focus. With Smith being an excellent defender in addition to his offensive skills, expect him to get that job. Inside, Jordan Morgan is the sole reliable big man for John Beilein, and he probably doesn’t have the ability to exploit what could be Duke’s sole weakness, it’s interior and rebounding game. While wing Zack Novak does a terrific job helping out on the glass, the combination of the Plumlees, Ryan Kelly and Kyle Singler will be enough for the Devils to win the inside game, while their guards get out and score in transition and knock down threes in the halfcourt game. Michigan can keep  the game tight for a while by controlling the pace and riding their momentum from their second round game, but there are too many talented guards here for Michigan to control.

The RTC Certified Pick: Duke.

#1 Ohio State vs. #8 George Mason – East Region Third Round (at Cleveland, OH) – 5:15 pm ET on CBS.

Ohio State’s second round entrance was no surprise, but George Mason needed some more of their March heroics in the final minutes to shut down Villanova’s guards and live another day. Luke Hancock will need to pull out a few more stepback threes from his arsenal if Mason wants to etch their program further into March lore and knock off the overall #1 seed. As you might expect, the Buckeyes are superior to the Patriots in just about every facet. Ohio State ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency, third in effective FG%, eighth in turnover%, first in steal%, they shoot 42% from deep led by Jon Diebler and 53% from inside the arc courtesy of Jared Sullinger. This is a phenomenal six or seven man rotation that understands their roles and execute on both ends to near perfection. It’s going to take a yeomen’s effort from Mason to pull off the shocker, and that means excelling at what they’ve done all season and catching some breaks along the way, i.e., Sullinger picking up two early fouls or Diebler experiencing an off-day from deep. Like any mid-major looking to pull an upset, they’ll need their stellar 39% mark on the season from three to hold up, meaning Andre Cornelius, Isaiah Tate and Cam Long better have the stroke from three. Mason also held opponents to just 31% from behind the arc on the season. If they can contain either Sullinger inside or the perimeter workings of the Buckeye guards, they’ll have a shot, and Mason does happen to be the highest efficiency team a #1 seed has to face in the second round. In the end, the Bucks simply have too many options capable of springing for 20. It’s going to be a few steps down the road, if at all, until OSU is slain.

The RTC Certified Pick: Ohio State.

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Throughout the NCAA Tournament, we’ll be providing you with the daily chatter from around the webosphere relating to what’s going on with the teams still playing.

East

• George Mason took out a fizzling Villanova in the first round, and continues to carve its own identity separate from the 2006 Final Four squad. The Wildcats’ season is over, and considering it lost 11 of its last 16 games, including its final six, perhaps it’s for the best.
• The blistering performance Marquette put on Xavier Friday night sent a big message to its doubters. The Golden Eagles shot 57% on their end, and put the clamps on star Musketeer Tu Holloway. Next for Buzz Williams‘ team is Syracuse, a team Marquette beat earlier this season.
• The Tar Heels broke out in the second half to pull away from Long Island. The high-scoring final outcome, 102-87, didn’t take long to become a polarizing talking point between tempo-free stat-heads (UNC gave up 0.89 points per possession) and traditional analysts (87 points allowed to a lower-tier mid-major)
• Syracuse stuck to its game plan of feeding Rick Jackson and polished off Indiana State. The game ended at 12:41 AM local time in Cleveland (more on this later), and set up an intra-conference battle with Marquette on Sunday (this too).
• For Lorenzo Romar and company, winning away from home has been a large concern, but it shook off the stigma, if only for one night, in their win against Georgia. Is it open season on Bulldogs head coach Mark Fox?
• West Virginia may mix in a 1-3-1 look on defense today when the Mountaineers clash against Kentucky. The game is a rematch of last season’s regional final in Syracuse, when WVU bested John Calipari‘s team in the Carrier Dome.

Southeast

• The Southeast region has a full slate on Saturday, including a battle between Florida and UCLA. Though the rosters have turned over, UCLA can exact revenge from elimination at the hands of the Gators in the 2006 and 2007 Final Fours.
• Gonzaga faces the same question posed to the 35 teams on BYU‘s schedule to this point – how do you stop Jimmer Fredette? It seems like there’s nothing out of the realm of possibility from 30 feet in for Fredette, so Gonzaga’s defenders need to be on high alert.
• Free throw proficiency has been a major factor to Wisconsin‘s success this  season, which is on the line in Saturday’s game against Kansas State. The Wildcats need to show patience in defending Wisconsin’s attack, and play smart defense.
• Butler guard Ronald Nored had to swallow his pride and accept a late-season move from a starting to role to a contributor off the bench. Will he provide a spark against the top-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers?
• For all the attention Jacob Pullen receives (and deservedly so), Rodney McGruder is one of Frank Martin‘s more underrated players. Six-foot-four guards who average six boards a game don’t fall out of the sky.

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Kevin Doyle is an RTC contributor.

By now, we have all read, watched, and heard the breakdown of those teams fortunate enough to have earned a top seed in this year’s Tournament. We know Pittsburgh has the easiest road to Houston of the four #1 seeds—or do they? Georgetown, with Chris Wright returning to the lineup, is poised to make a run to the second weekend. Ohio State and Kansas are the favorites to advance to the Final Four according to many of the so-called experts. They can only review so many times how teams with Tournament experience traditionally perform well, and that having a formidable frontcourt is essential to reaching the Final Four. But, what about those pesky teams from the Other 26 conferences? While there are several popular teams that have the capability of playing the role of Cinderella this year that have received ample coverage—Belmont, Utah State and Oakland just to name a few—let’s dive in and investigate the fifteen O26 teams on the left-hand side of the bracket: the East and West Regions. Yes, even you, Texas-San Antonio and Long Island, are getting some love here.

I elected to break down the 15 teams by inserting each into one of the four categories: 1) Have a legitimate shot at actually advancing far into the Tournament; 2) Can win a game, but not much more; 3) If their shots are falling and their opponents are not, they have an outside shot; and, 4) We are just happy to be here

Ability to advance to the second weekend

(6, East) Xavier—Despite a setback to Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, Xavier breezed through their conference schedule with their only loss coming to Charlotte. Subsequently, they are one of the hotter teams entering the Tournament and possess one of the most dynamic and potent point guards in the country in Tu Holloway. The Musketeers’ date with Marquette in the first round is one of the most intriguing early match-ups of the tournament. Getting by the Golden Eagles would undoubtedly give them confidence against another Big East foe in Syracuse in the following round. Bare in mind, Xavier has reached the Sweet 16 in the past three NCAA Tournaments.

Tu Holloway Makes the XU Offense Go

(2, West) San Diego State—The Aztecs are one of the best feel good stories of the entire year. They have a very likable team with guys like D.J. Gay and Kawhi Leonard being the face of the program, and Steve Fisher’s journey back to the top of the college basketball world has been great to watch. San Diego State sprinted through their entire regular season schedule with their only two blemishes coming at the hands of Jimmer Fredette and BYU. The play of Gay in the backcourt and Leonard in the frontcourt makes it hard for any opponent to cope with. SDSU will look to avenge their first round loss to Tennessee in last year’s tournament with a much deeper run this year.

(7, West) Temple—In the illustrious career of Fran Dunphy, the longtime coach has never won an NCAA Tournament game. After a strong non-conference performance that translated to a 14-2 record in the Atlantic 10, Temple seems poised to give Dunphy that first “W.” The Owls are one of the best defensive teams in the tournament, which will suite them well for Penn State’s hard-nosed and methodical offense. The match-up featuring Ramone Moore and Talor Battle will no doubt be a great one that may determine the outcome of the game.

Can win a game

(8, East) George Mason—The nation is finally witnessing the highly touted recruits that Jim Larranaga attracted to George Mason following their magical Final Four run back in 2006. The play of Ryan Pearson and Cam Long has been nothing short of exceptional during the second half of the season as GMU won 16 consecutive games. The streaking Patriots will take on the slumping Villanova Wildcats in the first round who have lost five straight games and 10 of their last 15. While the Nova backcourt is one of the best around with Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes, GMU is playing with confidence and swagger that Villanova seems to have lost. I’ll take the hotter team in this one.

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Introduction

March Madness is officially here. Introduction over.

What We Learned

What a Run, Young Man.

Connecticut scoffs in the face of conventional wisdom that says it’s better for a team to be well rested before the NCAA tournament. The Huskies won five games in five days to capture the Big East Tournament title last Saturday night. And for my money, Kemba Walker locked up the Naismith Award with his play over those five games. Walker averaged 26 PPG and 38 MPG at Madison Square Garden, carrying a team that finished 9-9 in the Big East to the #3 seed in the West. We are a little concerned that Walker went only 2-16 from three during the tournament, but he countered his poor outside shooting with at least nine attempts from the free throw line each game. For those who think Walker has to be running on fumes right now, remember that he had enough left to break some ankles, rise and knock down a J to beat Pittsburgh despite playing all 40 minutes of that game. Because of their 7:20 PM ET tip on Thursday, the Huskies will have had nearly five days off to ready themselves for the Tournament. That’s plenty of time for Kemba to recharge for another run.

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Zach Hayes is the RTC bracketologist and a contributor. He will analyze the East Region throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Throughout Monday, we’ll be releasing our Bracket Prep analyses of each of the four NCAA Tournament regions.  The order will be as follows — please check back throughout the day for all four (all times eastern).

• West – 9 am
• Southeast – 11 am
• Southwest – 1 pm
• East – 3 pm

Region: EAST

Favorite: #1 Ohio State, 32-2 (16-2 Big Ten)- The Buckeyes come into the tournament as the #1 overall seed and the prohibitive favorite to cut down the nets. Big Ten freshman POY Jared Sullinger anchors the inside, but defenses can’t double Sully because of the Buckeyes’ plethora of perimeter options.

Should They Falter: #2 North Carolina, 26-7 (14-2)- The Tar Heels have been a completely different team since Kendall Marshall took over at the point guard position. His dynamic passing ability has aided Harrison Barnes, while big men Tyler Zeller and John Henson have also made tremendous strides.

Grossly Overseeded: #10 Georgia, 21-11 (9-7)- Most projected the Bulldogs to sneak into the field as one of the last teams in or even be left out altogether. Instead, they earn a #10 seed? Georgia has won just five games all season against the RPI top-100.

Grossly Underseeded: #11 Marquette, 20-14 (9-9) – The 9-9 record won’t jump out at you, but remember the Golden Eagles thrashed Notre Dame, won at Connecticut, beat Syracuse and also downed West Virginia in the Big East Tournament, all top five seeds. They also had many other close losses to good teams along the way

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): #13 Princeton, 25-6 (12-2)- We’ve seen this program pull off some March magic in the past. This year’s version is fairly efficient offensively and has capable players in Ian Hummer and Kareem Maddox. If the Tigers shock Kentucky, a more vulnerable West Virginia team likely awaits.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): #4 Kentucky, 25-8 (10-6)- This young Kentucky team is riding high after winning at Tennessee in the season finale and then dominating both Alabama and Florida in the SEC Tournament. Darius Miller is playing the best basketball of his career and it’s the junior amidst a trio of talented freshman that could make the difference for the Cats.

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It is quite clear that Ohio State, Kansas, and Pittsburgh should be ranked one through three in that order as all of the pollsters were in complete agreement on that, but after that things get a little murky. Notre Dame is on the verge of crashing the party and a successful Big East Tournament may award them a #1 seed come Selection Sunday. QnD analysis after the jump…

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