Over the next two days in a series of separate posts, RTC will break down all 32 of the first round games using our best analytical efforts to understand these teams, the matchups and their individual strengths and weaknesses.  Our hope is that you’ll let us know in the comments where you agree, disagree or otherwise think we’ve lost our collective minds.  Here are the Friday evening games.

7:10 pm – #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State  (Buffalo pod)

This is a very tough game to call, so let’s start with what we know about it.  The Zags, no stranger to cross-country travel, come into Buffalo after an 11-day layoff where St. Mary’s took Mark Few’s team behind the woodshed and beat them handily in the WCC Tournament championship.  Florida State comes in having dropped its quarterfinal game against NC State in an effort that had their fans shaking their heads in disgust.  So needless to say, both teams are looking for a fresh start here.  The Zags are always dangerous, and this year’s squad led by Matt Bouldin and Elias Harris has the offensive firepower to score with just about anyone in America.  Merely an ok three-point shooting team, they tend to rely on the drives of Harris and mid-range game of Bouldin to create offense.  However, they don’t tend to respond well to teams that crowd and push them around, but unfortunately, FSU is just such a team.  The Seminoles enjoy the nation’s top defensive efficiency, and while they have the opposite problem of finding points, they should have no problem putting the clamps down on the Zag scoring options.  The question here comes down to whether the FSU defense, anchored by 7’1 Solomon Alabi and 6’9 Chris Singleton’s combined four blocks per game, is better than the Gonzaga offense, and we think that it is.  And as up/down as the Seminoles were in the ACC, they never came close to losing to the likes of Loyola Marymount and San Francisco, as Gonzaga did this year.

The Skinny:  The Zags this year aren’t quite as good as they usually are, and they’re facing a team that will shut down their biggest strength.  FSU wins this one by eight points to get a date with Syracuse.

7:15 pm – #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech  (Milwaukee pod)

Here’s another one that’s got people confused.  For good reason, too.  All year long we’ve been waiting on Georgia Tech to do something with all that talent, and now they’re playing better basketball, just in time.  Oklahoma State’s showing against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament will cost them some support, but we’re going to excuse that performance.  That was a tired basketball team, playing their third game in a six day span with K-State at the end of it — and the Wildcats were coming off of a five-day rest.  Georgia Tech is going to go inside to Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal like crazy, but when the Yellow Jackets actually shoot the three, they shoot it well.  Defending the three is a glaring OSU weakness, so it will be interesting to see how often Georgia Tech eschews their big men in favor of launching it from the arc, because those shots will be there.  So…good outside shooting, great inside players…sounds pretty good for Tech, right?  The question will be whether or not they can get to that point in their offense.  Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom twenty of Division I teams in terms of turning the ball over.  Can the Jackets, then, find a way to keep James Anderson from shredding them or Keiton Page from raining threes?

The Skinny: Oklahoma State won’t have to exert too much energy guarding the three, since Tech’s propensity to turn the ball over will take care of some of that.  The Cowboys have been getting more and more help from their role players, and we feel 9-7 in the Big 12 is better than 7-9 in the ACC this year.  It’ll be a great first round game, but we like Oklahoma State in a close one.

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This is the third of our four quick-and-dirty region breakdowns. This will serve to help the quick triggers who like to fill out their brackets first thing on Monday morning. For the rest of you, we’ll be providing more detailed game-by-game analysis throughout the rest of the week.

Energy Solutions Arena Hosts the West Regional

Region: West

Favorite: Syracuse, #1 seed, 29-4.  Jim Boeheim’s Syracuse Orange is the favorite in this region by a good margin.  His team has lost their last two games and there are whispers that center Arinze Onuaku may not be available for the first two rounds, but SU is talented enough to survive the first weekend without him (as a comparison, UNC didn’t have Ty Lawson at full strength for the first weekend last year).  K-State is realistically the only team in this region capable of standing toe-to-toe with Syracuse in terms of relative talent, but they play too loosey-goosey to actually beat the Orange.

Should They Falter: Kansas State, #2 seed, 26-7.  Should Syracuse get upset, K-State is in position to take advantage.  With a dynamite backcourt of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen capable of going off in bunches, the Wildcats could make a run to their first Final Four since the mid-60s.  The quality of talent in this region just isn’t very deep, so outside of Syracuse or K-State, who else could realistically win the requisite four games?

Grossly Overseeded: Vanderbilt, #4 seed, 24-8.  A team that lost to Western Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi State, none of whom are Tourney teams, should not have gotten a protected seed with only a couple of marquee wins this year.

Grossly Underseeded:UTEP, #12 seed, 26-6.  The Miners really didn’t start rolling until they integrated Derrick Caracter into the lineup, but they’ve been fantastic since then.  At worst, this team should have been in the #8-#10 range.  Instead, they’ll get an opportunity to prove themselves against the annual public darling #5 Butler, where Vegas has UTEP as only a 2.5-point underdog.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper (#12 seed or lower): UTEP.  For the same reasons as above, once UTEP beats Butler, they will also be able to get past #4 Vanderbilt who is probably overseeded, or #13 Murray State, a team they’re simply better than.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower): BYU, #7 seed, 29-5.  This is an easy one.  Everyone knows that BYU is murder to play at home, and if the Cougars can get past their first two opponents (Florida and K-State), then they will have as partisan a home crowd as possible in Salt Lake City to play two eastern teams,  either Pitt or Xavier and Syracuse.  The problem for BYU will be getting there.  They’ve had NCAA first round problems for the better part of two decades, and even though they’re much better than their initial opponent Florida, they’ll need to play really well to beat Kansas State.

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Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The ACC Update finally returns after a few weeks away due to uncontrollable fried-laptop-related issues. But before we start looking ahead to this week’s ACC Tournament, I want to take a quick look back.  Late Friday night, with my laptop still fried and my shiny new MacBook not yet purchased, I found myself flipping channels in the wee hours of the morning. I was so bored, that I even ventured outside my HD comfort zone to find ESPN Classic. With the Duke-UNC game the following night, the channel was airing prior “classics” in the rivalry. Of course, I came across the final five minutes of regulation in the epic February 2, 1995 affair.

In case you need a refresher: Duke was 0-7 in the ACC at the time, while UNC was LOADED with stud players, like Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse, and ranked #2. Jeff Capel’s one-footed 3-pointer at the buzzer tied the game, and sent Dickie V into a insane frenzy.  Considering I was 12 years old at the time, there were many things about that game that I forgot, and that made it unbelievably fascinating:

• Duke was left for dead, trailing 26-9 at one point in the first half and by as many as seven in the final minutes. As they continued to fall behind, I actually kept checking to make sure this was the game I thought it was.
• Hindsight is easy, as they say, but Cherokee Parks just looked like one of those great college players who would never materialize in the pros. He was dominant inside, but really unathletic.
• If UNC had hit even one or two free throws down the stretch, Capel’s shot never would have happened.
• Dickie V questioned the decision at the time, and I agree wholeheartedly — why wouldn’t Dean Smith put any UNC players on the lane to rebound the final free throws? He had a terrible foul-shooter at the line, and by giving Parks a free rebound and hand-off to Capel, he gave Duke at least a second of time and probably 20 extra feet of court. Even if UNC doesn’t rebound it there, at least Wallace or Stackhouse could have put a body on Parks or Capel.
• Finally, I gained an even greater (if that’s possible) appreciation for today’s video and production quality. This game was only 15 years ago, but for someone used to HD, 30 camera angles, and excellent sound quality, this might as well have been in black and white. Replays were scarce, there appeared to be three cameras in the entire gym, and the lack of a constant score and gameclock on the screen was jarring to say the least.

Anyway, I just found that interesting, and was jotting down notes as I watched. Now let’s jump ahead to 2010. We’ll take a quick look at each matchup, and even toss out a few meaningless predictions. First, let’s examine the NCAA Tourney fates of our ACC friends:

BOOKING TRAVEL PLANS

• Duke, Maryland, Florida State and Virginia Tech are absolutely in at this point.

SAFE AND SOUND

• Wake Forest and Clemson probably shouldn’t go out and lose in the first round, but otherwise, both the Deacons and Tigers are safe bets.

DON’T CHOKE…

• I’m looking at you Georgia Tech. You are just too talented to even be on the bubble at this point. But if you don’t take care of lowly North Carolina on Thursday (and I can definitely see a UNC stunner), you are NIT-bound.

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Large Wednesday.  It was a big-time night of games, the kind of evening that has you checking the clock all day long in nervous anticipation.  Most of the games ended in predictable fashion, but that didn’t make them any less interesting.  To get this out of the way, ranked teams #3 Kentucky, #6 Purdue, #10 New Mexico, #13 Tennessee, #15 BYU, #16 Temple, #17 Wisconsin and #24 Texas A&M all won, most easily.  UNM won the Mountain West title outright, and Kentucky grabbed at least a share of the SEC title tonight.  We’ll focus on the biggest games, the key games of bubbular interest, and the conference tourneys in this space tonight, though.

• #2 Kansas 82, #5 Kansas State 65. ESPN got lucky that this game was only interesting for about thirty minutes tonight.  At the 15:39 mark of the second half, K-State’s Luis Colon hit a layup to pull the Wildcats back within one point, and we thought this battle between Big 12 stalwarts was destined to go down to the wire in Lawrence.  We were wrong.  Kansas seemingly awakened from its halftime slumber and went on a quick 9-0 run to open its lead back up to double digits.  KSU made one more push to get it back to six, but the Jayhawks used a 13-1 run to put the game away for the 59th consecutive time in Allen Fieldhouse.  The Kansas defense, virtually nonexistent in their loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday, was back in action here, holding their in-state rival to 40% shooting and limiting the opponents not named Denis Clemente or Jacob Pullen to a mere 24 points.  The old barn was rocking as Kansas won the Big 12 regular season outright and likely wrapped up a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well, but we’re not completely certain because we could hardly see the action on our ESPN360 feed.  KU walks into a trap game at Missouri on Saturday, while K-State should still finish second in the league with a win over Iowa State this weekend.

Sherron Collins: Winningest Player in KU History (KC Star/R. Sugg)

• #23 Maryland 79, #4 Duke 72.  The better big game of the night took place in College Park, as Maryland outlasted Duke in a back-and-forth contest that resulted in the Terps tying the rival Blue Devils at the top of the ACC standings with one game remaining.  Ultimately, it was Gary Williams’ team, led by the animated and spectacular Greivis Vasquez (20/4/5 assts), who broke a 69-all tie with two minutes to go and ended the game on a 10-3 closing run.  In particular, it was Vasquez’s running, fading, only-the-kind-of-shot-he-would-take-and-make jumper that gave Maryland a four-point lead with 39 seconds left and forced Duke to start fouling soon thereafter.  We really shouldn’t read too much into one result in a rivalry game, so we won’t, but one thing is very clear in that Maryland has been playing the better part of two months much, much better than their ranking might 0therwise indicate.  Since the new year turned, the Terps have only lost at Wake (when WFU was playing well), Clemson and Duke.  That’s it.  Pollsters have been holding four nonconference losses against them, but if Maryland isn’t a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament, then we haven’t seen one.  As for the regular season title, the Terps will play in a trap game at Virginia this weekend, while Duke will actually have the easier home game against rival UNC.  If both win (or lose), then Duke will win the top seed in the ACC Tournament, but suffice it just to say that these two are clearly the best two teams in the ACC.  Now, about that RTC, Terp fans…  we love the quick, full coverage of the court, and we know it’s been a few years since you last beat Duke, but, what if you’re the better team?

Huge Bubble Games.

• Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50. There’s absolutely no question that the Irish are playing better without all-american Luke Harangody than they were with him.  Notre Dame won its third straight game over a solid team to put themselves squarely back into the NCAA picture, but with an RPI in the 60s, a win over Marquette this weekend and another in the Big East Tourney are needed.  The Ls keep piling up for UConn (13 now), but how long can you hide behind the excuse of a tough schedule and some big wins before you cut them out of the picture?
• Florida State 51, Wake Forest 47.  Wake is busily playing itself from a projected #4 seed to outside the field in a short span of two weeks with the Deacs’ fourth straight loss tonight.  Al-Farouq Aminu had a ridiculous zero-point, five-foul performance in the loss, and with a game versus surging Clemson on Sunday, Wake could be staring at five Ls in a row to end the regular season.
• Memphis 70, UAB 65.  In a battle of CUSA bubble teams, Memphis was able to get a big win while also wrapping up the #2 seed in next week’s Conference USA Tournament in Tulsa.  In most mock brackets, UAB is the second team out of this conference, but now Memphis has swept the season series between the two.  It will be interesting if they meet again in Tulsa with Memphis taking a third game as well.

Helped/Hurt Themselves.

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Contributing writer Kevin Chupka will periodically interview a rabid student fan about all things basketball on the court and in the stands… a view from the student section.

Cullen & Friends Ready to Push FSU Back to the NCAAs

Florida State is probably known more for its work on the gridiron than on the basketball court, but that doesn’t stop a group of basketball loving students from packing “The ‘Nole Zone” for every home game at the Donald L Tucker Center.  Matthew Cullen, a senior at FSU, is the president of this rabid fan section. “The Nole Zone is home to the rowdiest, most passionate Florida State basketball fans,” he says.  “The Nole Zone certainly does their collective homework,” Matthew adds, “we’re always quick to let an opponent know what we think about how their season is going.”

The Seminoles have rebounded nicely this season from their stint as the dreaded 12/5 upset victim in last year’s NCAA tournament (their first such appearance in a decade), bowing out to Wisconsin on a last minute shot in overtime.  This year Cullen admits that “losses at rival Florida and in the home ACC opener to NC State were disappointing,” but they have shown flashes of greatness in knocking off rival Georgia Tech in both meetings and handing Virginia Tech one of their three conference losses this year.  So what does the rest of the season hold? “Runs in both the ACC and NCAA Tournaments are certainly not out of the question for this year’s squad,” Matthew thinks.  But it might be easier said than done. Many analysts have just about the entire middle of the ACC on the bubble meaning FSU must jockey for position with the likes of Maryland, Clemson and Virginia; the last two of whom they are scheduled to play in the final weeks of the regular season. 

So who will FSU be counting on in the home stretch? “It’s really been a well-rounded team effort,” he says, “but it’s a trio of sophomores that stand out. 7’1 center Solomon Alabi leads the team in scoring, blocks and free throw percentage, where he’s better than 82 percent. Forward Chris Singleton has really developed his game. He’s second in scoring and blocks, and brings a defensive edge with his team-leading 48 steals. I’d also throw in Devidas Dulkys, the sophomore out of Lithuania. He’s an excellent three-point shooter, as well as a great defender who is second on the team in steals.”  And Matthew says the team as a whole has some work to do, namely on turnovers, “We turn the ball over too much… and often become hesitant and tentative in our play. Limiting turnovers and careful execution of the offense will be essential keys to returning to the Dance.” 

Still, hopefully improvements in the final weeks of action along with sustaining what Cullen calls “our suffocating style of play” on defense, the ‘Noles very well might be dancing and looking to turn around the upset tables come late March.

Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

So I finally found my way out of the snowy winter doldrums (unlike the Tar Heels) – and the 67 feet of snow around here – in time to give you the latest ACC update. We’ll try to keep the same categories for the teams as last time, based on their postseason prospects: Definite Dancers, Probably Safe, Bubbly, NIT-picking, and CBI-Dreaming.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record after games of Sunday, Feb. 14)

DEFINITE DANCERS

1. Duke (21-4, 9-2)

RESUME: The Blue Devils only served to enhance their resume over the last two weeks, going 4-0, with three of those coming in impressive fashion. Oddly, the one close game wasn’t at UNC or vs. Georgia Tech, but at Boston College. I know BC is struggling this year, but I’ll give the Devils a pass on that one. The trip to Boston is a tough one, and it became the biggest game of the year on a campus that doesn’t really care about much (sorry for my anti-BC biterness this week – reasoning later on).

FUTURE: Last time out, I said Duke was looking like a #4 or #5 seed. But barring a few bad losses, or an early exit from the conference tourney, Duke should get a #2 or maybe #3 seed. As for the rest of the slate, I only see one real challenging game: March 3 at Maryland. Duke should finish with 27 wins and a 13-3 league mark – not too shabby.

2. Wake Forest (18-5, 8-3)

RESUME: Welcome to the upper tier, for now. Wake posted four wins over the last two weeks, including a testing road win at surging Virginia and convincing home wins over Boston College and (now struggling) Georgia Tech. The Deacons are playing well – thanks largely to guard Ishmael Smith — but they still could defend a little better. Wake is second-to-last in the ACC in points allowed per game at 67.6, and dead last in assist/turnover ratio – meaning their guards need to take better care of the ball, and the defense could stand to put on some more pressure.

FUTURE: A few more wins could get Wake into a top-4 seed, and all five contests left on the slate are very winnable. Watch out for a hot Deacons team as March rolls around…

3. Georgia Tech (17-8, 5-6)

RESUME: The Jackets are really struggling to score of late, failing to break 70 in three of their last four – all losses. The game at Duke was never close, and the game at Miami is not a game a top-tier team should lose. I’ll forgive the loss at Wake Forest, but even Tech’s most-recent win – a 2-point home win over N.C. State – was too close for comfort. Derrick Favors seems to be struggling to find his shot of late, and is being replaced by another freshman whose dad was really good at NBA Jam: Glen Rice Jr.

FUTURE: Last time out, I said Tech’s trip to Duke would tell us a lot, and it told us this team’s not ready. What will Saturday’s trip to Maryland tell us about the Jackets?

PROBABLY SAFE

4. Maryland (17-7, 7-3)

RESUME: The Terps move up from No. 5 to No. 4, and are a near-lock for the dance, but I’m hesitant to boost them into the “Definitely Dancing” category. When you’re a presumptive #8 or #9 seed, a mini-skid could put you back on the bubble again. I’d still like to see Maryland win a truly tough road game, considering the Terps struggled mightily at Clemson and Duke in the last few weeks.

FUTURE: After an easy win Monday night against Virginia, Maryland really doesn’t face a tough road test until the season finale in Charlottesville. But, they still have to face Duke, Clemson and Georgia Tech at home. I’m guessing an optimistic 5-2 finish for Maryland, which would make them a safe bet for a top-8 seed in the Big Dance.

5. Clemson (18-7, 6-5)

RESUME: Yes, I know the Tigers beat Maryland, so how do they fall behind the Terps? Four losses out of five didn’t help, including one at Boston College, and home wins over Florida State and Miami don’t exactly send my heart a-flutter. They’ll be in the dance, but for some reason, I see the Tigers as the most vulnerable ACC team in the first round of the tourney.

FUTURE: After hosting Virginia Saturday, Clemson still has to go to Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest, and they host Georgia Tech. I see 2, maybe 3 losses in there. Does a team that goes 8-8 in a weak ACC really impress you that much when it comes time to fill out a bracket? Me neither.

6. Florida State (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Two wins over Georgia Tech, including one on the road, stand out as highlights of the season for the Seminoles so far. While the wins might not be the impressive, FSU’s best attribute right now is a lack of bad losses. A home loss to NC State might be the worst of the bunch, but losses at Florida, Ohio State, Maryland and Duke aren’t anything to worry about.

FUTURE: Three home games out of the next four set up well for FSU, including Maryland on Thursday and Miami on Saturday. FSU needs to stand tall in Tallahassee to stay in this semi-safe tier.

BUBBLY

7. Virginia Tech (20-4, 7-3)

RESUME: Virginia Tech took advantage of a home-heavy slate the last few weeks to nearly lock up a dance card. I’m leaving the Hokies in the “Bubbly” level for now though, because they have been too moody to trust this season. The loss at Miami isn’t a great one, but they bounced back with four average to above-average wins: UNC, Clemson, Virginia and at N.C. State. While I may not really be feeling Clemson come tourney time, I could see a surprise Sweet 16 for the Hokies with the right matchups…

FUTURE: Tech has three home games (Wake Forest, Maryland, N.C. State) and three on the road (Duke, BC, Georgia Tech). They really need to win two of three at home and could use the same on the road. I’m seeing a home loss to Maryland and road loss at Duke. The season finale at Georgia Tech could be a toss-up depending on where the teams are in the standings.

8. Virginia (14-9, 5-5)

RESUME: As of my last report, I was high on the Cavaliers, and assumed they’d climb up a tier this time around. But two losses to Virginia Tech and a loss to Wake Forest and Maryland each were not balanced out by wins over the lackluster N.C. schools.

FUTURE: Right now, Lunardi has Virginia among his first eight out, while our resident bracketologist doesn’t even mention the Cavs. A surprise win over Clemson (2/20), Duke (2/28), or Maryland (3/6) in the next few weeks would help. I still think the ACC could get eight teams, but the Cavs are one team who will likely be rooting for the favorites to win all the smaller conference tourneys.

NIT-PICKING

9. Miami (17-8, 3-8)

RESUME: This is where it starts to pain me to even mention teams as playing postseason games. The fact that Miami will play in the NIT is another reason to HATE the idea of a 96-team Big Dance. Yes, the Canes beat Wake, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, but they won all three of those at home. Miami has TWO road wins this year: Stetson and Pepperdine. Wake me when it’s over, please.

FUTURE: Looking at what’s left, it’s possible Miami could finish the regular season with as many as 21 wins, possibly finishing off the most unimpressive 20-win season in history.

CBI-DREAMING

10. North Carolina (14-11, 3-7)

RESUME: Barring a miracle run in Greensboro, the NCAA Tourney is going to be missing a familiar shade of blue this season, and I’m here to tell you that the world will go on. If they play an NIT game in Chapel Hill, and no one is there to care, did it really happen?

FUTURE: UNC should beat Miami at home, and might win at Boston College on Saturday, but that’s all I’m seeing. They might make the NIT as a good story and extra TV ratings, but that’s about it.

11. N.C. State (14-12, 2-9)

RESUME: Does a resume even matter in this case? Sure, they had a few heartbreakers earlier in the year, but the Wolf Pack need a makeover on both ends of the floor.

FUTURE: One win, maybe two left on the schedule (BC at home, maybe at Miami).

12. Boston College (12-13, 3-8)

RESUME: The Eagles put in a valiant effort against Duke last weekend, but failed to make me look like a genius in my picks.

FUTURE: A home win over North Carolina would be nice, but it’s just playing out the string now.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

So my perfect record in Upset Specials fell by the wayside, as did my hopes of a Beanpot Hockey championship for my alma mater. But BC’s gotta win something this year, right?

• OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 13-7
• UPSET OF THE WEEK: 3-1
• HOCKEY RECORD: 0-1

LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE

• My Prediction: Duke by 4
• Actual Result: Duke by 19

MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE

• My Prediction: Maryland by 2
• Actual Result: Maryland by 4

NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND

• My Prediction: Maryland by 6
• Actual Result: Maryland by 21

LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICKS

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH

• My Prediction: UNC by 3
• Actual Result: Virginia Tech by 4

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE (UPSET SPECIAL)

• My Prediction: Boston College by 2
• Actual Result: Duke by 3

BEANPOT HOCKEY FINAL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY

• My Prediction: BU 4, BC 2
• Actual Result: BC 4, BU 3 (can’t win ’em all)

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (Upset special in italics)

• WAKE FOREST at VIRGINIA TECH, Tuesday, 7 p.m. (ESPN2).  Wake Forest knocks the Hokies closer to the bubble. Wake Forest by 6.
• FLORIDA STATE at VIRGINIA, Wednesday, 7 p.m. (ESPNU).  Virginia needs this one to stay in the discussion. Virginia by 3.
• NORTH CAROLINA at BOSTON COLLEGE, Saturday, Noon (CBS).  I’m including this one only because it’s on national TV. Boston College by 5.
• GEORGIA TECH at MARYLAND, Saturday, 2 p.m.  Maryland makes sure the Jackets remain in a late-season free fall. Maryland by 3.
• VIRGINIA TECH at DUKE, Sunday, 7:45 p.m. (FSN).  I was close last week with my BC over Duke upset special. So I’m trying another one against the Devils. Virginia Tech by 2.

1. Want to know what’s wrong with UNC this year?  One ACC coach laid out all of the dirty laundry about Roy Williams’ team in an interview with the Washington Post.  Since the coach was speaking as someone who had faced Carolina once already this season, and the article came out Saturday morning, this means that it was one of the following four: Seth Greenberg (Virginia Tech), Paul Hewitt (Georgia Tech), Oliver Purnell (Clemson), Sidney Lowe (NC State) or Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest).  Lowe lost to the Heels in their only game and Gaudio still seems too new to make those kinds of statements about that program, even anonymously.  That leaves Greenberg, Hewitt and Purnell, and our money is on Greenberg.  For some reason it just sounds like him (and the WaPo probably has a closer relationship with him than the others).
2. Florida State announced on Sunday that they will be vacating wins from ten sports that involved 61 athletes accused of academic misconduct during the 2006-07 academic year.  Most of the news will focus on football coach Bobby Bowden losing 12 wins from his career total, but of interest to us is that the basketball program will lose all 22 of its wins from that year as well — one from the ACC Tourney, and two from the NIT.
3. Based on everything that Isiah Thomas says here about his lack of interest in the LA Clippers job, we fully expect him to see him stalking the sidelines (and the interns!) at the Staples Center next season.
4. NCAA 96: a voice of reason on expansion of the NCAA Tournament from an unlikely source, the Commissioner of the Big Ten, Jim Delaney.  The key takeaway from his discussion with TSN is ‘let’s learn more about this.’  Exactly.  The more time spent talking to stakeholders as well as THE FANS is simple but seemingly missing from this idea — it helps to remove avarice from the equation and gives reasoned consideration to the premise that just because an idea will be profitable makes it a good thing.
5. Pat Forde writes that if the COY award were handed out today, there would be no doubt who should win it — Jim Boeheim.  He won’t get any argument from us.  Syracuse received 83 votes in the preseason AP Poll (good for 31st) and 111 votes in the ESPN/Coaches Poll (25th).  The Orange are now 23-1, leading the Big East Conference, and could potentially be Boeheim’s best team ever.  That’s right.  Look through this list and find a better team.  It’s hard to do.

Thursday Night Doldrums.  There weren’t a lot of great games on paper tonight, and it turned out to be the case in reality as most of the marquee games were average at best.  We’ll break down the biggest two games, and just highlight the others.

Purdue Didn’t Choke, But Kelsey Barlow Did.  #7 Purdue 78, Indiana 75.  The one exception tonight was this game in Bloomington between the surging Boilermakers and the home Hoosiers.  These two teams went back and forth for thirty-eight minutes before a 5-0 run keyed by Robbie Hummel (21/7) and E’Twaun Moore (14/5/3 assts) put Matt Painter’s team in position to win at IU for the first time since the 90s.  Indiana had a shot to tie the game at the buzzer, but Verdell Jones III’s  (22/6/4 assts) shot from around 40 feet missed the mark, and Purdue won its fifth straight game prior to the big showdown with Michigan State next Tuesday.  JaJuan Johnson had a big night with 21/7, and as we’ve discussed in this space before, when the big man is putting in the work, Purdue is a much better team.  He’s gone for 18/8 a night during the Boilers’ five-game winning streak; in the previous three-game losing streak, he put up an average of 6/5.  Obviously Matt Painter and his guards want to keep Johnson happy.  As for Indiana, their second-consecutive loss on the final possession stings, but it’s further evidence that Tom Crean’s team isn’t all that far from competing in the Big Ten.  We’d suppose that one year from now IU will be winning these close games.  Final note: starter Kelsey Barlow will undoubtedly be suspended as soon as Matt Painter sees the below image (taken in the final moments of the game).  Brilliant move, that one.

When Will Kelsey Barlow's Suspension Begin?

Dud in Durham.  #9 Duke 86, #19 Georgia Tech 67. This was fairly close until three minutes left in the first half, at which point the Blue Devils turned up the defense a couple of clicks and began to separate themselves from the Yellow Jackets.  The one thing Tech couldn’t afford was to let Duke hit a three at the end of the half and make it a double-digit lead, so when Jon Scheyer found Kyle Singler in the corner for a trey as the buzzer sounded, you didn’t need a Magic 8-ball to predict the Jackets’ second half.  Georgia Tech got in early foul trouble and never came close to finding a rhythm against the Devils, who looked comfy at home as usual.  You would never have known that it was the Yellow Jackets who came in with the nation’s fourth-best defense (holding opponents to 37% shooting per game).  Duke shot holes through that with tremendous ease, and got big games they needed from Singler (30/5 on 9-17 shooting) and Scheyer (21/7 assts), not to mention a helpful 11 boards from Lance Thomas in a performance that was frankly better than their current #9 ranking.

The Rest of the ACC.

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Steve Moore is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic Coast Conference.

After a week away from RTC, I just couldn’t help myself, and decided to come back to bring you up to date on the wacky, wild (and mediocre) ACC. Seriously though, the ACC is proving to be relatively unimpressive this year. We worried about that early in the year – at least I wondered that – and it’s starting to come to fruition as we head into February.

ACC POWER RANKINGS (record after games of Monday, Feb. 1)

The rankings will change a little this week, as we try to separate the contenders and pretenders into tiers, based on NCAA Probability: Definite Dancers, Probably Safe, Bubbly, NIT-picking, and CBI-Dreaming:

DEFINITE DANCERS

1. Duke (17-4, 5-2)

RESUME:  Duke is still the best team in the ACC, but they have some serious weaknesses that have shown themselves in recent weeks. First of all, I have always wondered why a big-time program – especially one that is counting on young players as important contributors — would avoid true road games until conference play. And now I have proof. Duke is 1-4 in true road games, posting an impressive win at Clemson while falling at Wisconsin, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Sunday at Georgetown, where they decided not to play defense at all. The Blue Devils are looking more like a #4 or #5 seed than a #1 or #2.

FUTURE: Duke hosts Georgia Tech Thursday in a revenge game that qualifies as the ACC game of the week. They then visit Boston College Saturday. They should win that one too – but that’s a challenging turnaround and trip, so beware, Dookies.

2. Georgia Tech (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Easy wins over Wake Forest and Kentucky State. I didn’t even know there was such a school as Kentucky State. The Jackets hold onto this No. 2 spot, despite the three league losses. But that “impressive” road win at North Carolina a few weeks back isn’t so impressive anymore.

FUTURE: The trip to Cameron on Thursday should tell us a lot about Tech, but possibly more about Duke. A loss there wouldn’t be killer for the Jackets, except that it would be their fourth of the season in the ACC. Yikes.

3. Wake Forest (14-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Three road ACC losses for the Deacons – Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech (last weekend) – and none of them were even close. The win at UNC is looking less impressive by the day, but I still think Wake is definitely in. They could end up seeded anywhere from #3 to #10, but they’re definitely in.

FUTURE: Wake hosts Miami Tuesday and heads to Virginia Saturday. They REALLY could use a 2-0 week to get this thing on the right track.

PROBABLY SAFE (Yes, I know the league will get more than three bids — I’m guessing six. But who those next three teams will be is very much up in the air.)

4. Clemson (16-6, 4-4)

RESUME: That 4-4 league record doesn’t look good, and the Tigers really don’t have many impressive wins (Butler? at Maryland?). But this team has too much talent to not figure things out in the final month of the regular season.

FUTURE: I see at least five wins in the last eight league games, and probably six. A 9-7 league mark and two wins in the ACC tourney should lock up a #7 to #9 seed. Clemson could use a win at Virginia Tech Saturday to get that started, though.

5. Maryland (14-6, 4-2)

RESUME: My preseason pick is showing some signs of life, and should be able to secure a dance ticket. The 9-point loss at Clemson wasn’t great, but recent home wins over NC State and Miami were convincing enough (24 and 22 point margins) to be impressive.

FUTURE: The one issue for Maryland may be its remaining schedule. The Terps still have to play Duke twice, and face some tough road tests, starting Thursday at Florida State.

6. Florida State (16-5, 4-3)

RESUME: Two wins over Georgia Tech, including one on the road, stand out as highlights of the season for the Seminoles so far. While the wins might not be the impressive, FSU’s best attribute right now is a lack of bad losses. A home loss to NC State might be the worst of the bunch, but losses at Florida, Ohio State, Maryland and Duke aren’t anything to worry about.

FUTURE: Three home games out of the next four set up well for FSU, including Maryland on Thursday and Miami on Saturday. FSU needs to stand tall in Tallahassee to stay in this semi-safe tier.

BUBBLY

7. Virginia (13-6, 4-2)

RESUME: Personally, I think the Cavaliers will end up dancing. One of the unimpressive road losses earlier this year – at South Florida – is starting to look respectable, while many of the other losses were by less than three points. And while UNC is definitely down right now, the 15-point blowout win in Chapel Hill is still worth its weight in gold for fans in Charlottesville.

FUTURE: That said, UVA needs to win both of its games this week: home against NC State Wednesday, and home vs. Wake Forest Saturday. I know Wake is a tough game, but if the Cavs can go 2-0 this week, they might jump up a tier into the nearly-definite dancers.

8.  Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3)

RESUME: I was tempted to only include the Cavaliers on this tier, but I’ll be nice to the Hokies this week. The win at Virginia last week is the only solid road win of the year for Tech (maybe the win at Iowa counts), but a one-point win over struggling BC was a great escape.

FUTURE: This may be the end of Virginia Tech on the bubble, though. The Hokies host UNC and Clemson this week, and I can’t see them winning both. Even one loss (especially if it’s to UNC) could hurt any chance of staying on the bubble.

NIT-PICKING

9. North Carolina (13-8, 2-4)

RESUME: The talking heads on TV are debating whether UNC will miss the dance. I don’t see a debate at all – they are headed to the NIT. The Heels have too much youth, too many blowout home losses, and just too many tough games still to navigate. The wins over Ohio State and Michigan State are nice, as are victories over NC State and Virginia Tech, but the losses are just too hard to ignore. As is the upcoming schedule…

FUTURE: I mean, seriously, if you’ve watched UNC this year, do you really expect them to win more than a few of the remaining games? The Heels still have to go on the road to  Virginia Tech (Thursday), Maryland (Sunday), Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest and Duke. I see maybe three wins out of those six – if they’re lucky. Plus, they still host Duke, Florida State and Miami. UNC will get an NIT invite, obviously, even if it’s just on name alone. But they need a miracle to make the big dance.

10. Miami (16-5, 2-5)

RESUME: Miami will go to the NIT only because it might reach 20 wins, not because any of them were impressive – at all. Sure, there was Minnesota, Wake Forest, and last week vs. Virginia Tech. But everything else on this resume is a total joke, and the remaining schedule takes the ’Canes away from Miami a few times – meaning nearly definite defeats.

FUTURE: Out of nine remaining ACC games, I’m seeing a real chance at just two wins, despite an imbalance of home games. The remaining slate is brutal. The only game where Miami would be favored is home to NC State. The ’Canes still have road games at Wake Forest (Tuesday night), Florida State (Saturday), Clemson and North Carolina. They still have to host Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and Florida State.

CBI-DREAMING

11. NC State (14-8, 2-5)

RESUME: The Wolf Pack have been burned this year by lots of close losses, but as they say, close only matters in horseshoes, hand grenades, and 96-team NCAA Brackets (what a joke). The win over Duke could bump them into the NIT discussion – but only if Duke acts like a top-10 team the rest of the way.

FUTURE: Two road games this week at Virginia (Wednesday) and at Georgia Tech (Saturday), and two likely losses. I really only see two wins out of the remaining nine for NC State (maybe three), which would mean an optimistic final record of 17-14 and 5-11.

12. Boston College (12-10, 3-5)

RESUME: The win over Clemson was followed quickly by a bad home loss to Florida State. BC still hosts Duke and North Carolina, and travels to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. The Eagles hockey team also gets to lost to Boston University in next Monday’s Beanpot final – so there’s that. What’s the Beanpot, you ask? Only the coolest in-season college sports tournament in all the land…

FUTURE: The Eagles welcome Duke to Boston on Saturday.

RAMBLING RANT OF THE WEEK

Making a return for this week only, the rant tackles an issue that everyone on this site seems to hate – so I’m jumping on. Why the hell do we need to mess with perfection? A 96-team Tournament? Really? We already have 7, 8 or even 9 teams from one conference going to the dance, including .500 teams from power conferences. It further minimizes the regular season, and throws even more asterisks into the record books. What if Northwestern finally makes the dance after it expands? Do they still celebrate like they would if they made it this year? And how will you feel when 22nd-seeded North Carolina (in a down year) “shocks” No. 3 Kentucky. You’ll feel empty and unmoved, that’s how you’ll feel.

CRYSTAL BALL TIME…

Considering how topsy-turvy things have been in the ACC this year, my 10-5 mark is quite respectable. But by perfect 3-0 mark in upset picks is pretty awesome, if I do say so myself.

OVERALL SEASON RECORD: 10-5
UPSET OF THE WEEK: 3-0

LAST WEEK’S CORRECT PICKS

BOSTON COLLEGE at VIRGINIA TECH
My Prediction: Virginia Tech by 4
Result: Virginia Tech by 1

DUKE at CLEMSON
My Prediction: Duke by 3
Result: Duke by 13
 
GEORGIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE (Upset of the Week pick)
My Prediction: Florida State by 2
Result: Florida State by 2

LAST WEEK’S INCORRECT PICK
 
WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA
My Prediction: UNC by 11
Result: Wake Forest by 13
 
VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST
My Prediction: Virginia by 2
Result: Wake Forest by 12

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (Upset special in italics)

GEORGIA TECH at DUKE, Thursday, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Duke takes care of business at home. Duke by 4.

MARYLAND at FLORIDA STATE, Thursday, 9 p.m.
Maryland picks up a big win away from home to boost its resume. Maryland by 2.

NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH, Thursday, 9 p.m.
I can’t call this an upset, but I see UNC getting this one late. UNC by 3.

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE, Saturday, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
A SHOCKING upset special of the week, but I’m just feeling it. Boston College by 2.

NORTH CAROLINA at MARYLAND, Sunday, 2 p.m. (FSN)
Maryland completes the best overall week for an ACC team. Maryland by 6.

BONUS PICK (ON ICE)!

BEANPOT HOCKEY FINAL: BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY, Monday, 8 p.m.
Despite a down year, my alma mater pulls out its 30th Beanpot title in 58 tries. BU 4, BC 2.

A good discussion on twitter today about how to rank the top four (all one-loss) teams.  Here’s our version, with analysis after the jump:

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