For the past two years we’ve taken a look at what NCAA basketball would be like if the powers that be decided to adopt the antediluvian BCS system. In 2009 it would have yielded a championship game between UNC and Louisville along with several other less desirable match-ups. In 2010 it would have led to a championship game between Kansas and Kentucky, which could have been an interesting match-up, but both teams showed severe flaws that led to their elimination well short of the final Monday night game in April.

This season we decided that we would expand things a bit by offering our RTC/BCS college basketball rankings using a formula similar to what they use to determine the BCS rankings in college football on a weekly basis. As the season progresses, you can see how certain teams rise from relative obscurity and into the BCS picture while other teams fall from prestigious BCS games down to what would be the equivalent of pre-New Year’s Day games. With conference play about to start we thought that this would be the ideal time to start looking at the potential match-ups.

We kept the same basic rules as we used in previous years:

1. We are following the BCS Football guidelines as closely as possible, but we replaced the Notre Dame rule with the Duke rule since they both have sketchy TV contracts (Notre Dame with NBC and Duke with ESPN).
2. The AP and ESPN/USA Today polls are used as the human polls and ESPN.com’s InsiderRPI, KenPom.com, and Sagarin’s ratings as the computer polls. We are not including six computer rankings and dropping the highest and lowest like they do in the BCS because frankly we are not familiar with six reputable computer ranking systems. If you know of any other computer rankings leave a comment below and we might include them in the next installment of our rankings.
3. We used the traditional BCS calculations for determining each team’s score weighing the two human polls and the combined computer poll average as 1/3 of a team’s total score each.

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1. You simply must check out how, in his attempts to get back to school for a game against Albany, Xavier’s Tu Holloway went through his own version of Plains, Trains, and Automobiles. Even more impressive was what he did when he made it back — 32 minutes, 11 points on 4-6 shooting, nine dimes, one turnover, and all while sick and exhausted. And let us say this — Tu, we love ya, man, but the image of you on a Greyhound bus with a morbidly obese man snoring on your shoulder is freaking hilarious. At least you didn’t have a conversation upon waking that ended with the words, “Those aren’t pillows!“
2. Speaking of Xavier, you can likely find coach Chris Mack down at City Hall in Cincinnati inquiring as to whether the Cintas Center was, in fact, built on a Native American burial ground. Whatever it is, there’s something out there that doesn’t like Xavier basketball — yesterday it was announced that freshman swingman Jay Canty (1.0 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 9.5 MPG) has a broken right foot and will be shelved for a month. That leaves XU with nine scholarship players. If we know Coach Mack, though — and we don’t — he’ll somehow get the Musketeers to overachieve in March even if he has to suit up the mascot and a pull a couple of business majors out of Smith Hall in order to have enough practice players.
3. “Some guys hate losing more than they love winning.” A memorable line from a simply outstanding look at the life of Rutgers basketball under new boss Mike Rice. Writer Adam Zagoria intimates that Rice might just be the right man to bring the Knights back to prominence in the future, and that’s been our position as well; this article makes us feel confident about that prediction.
4. The Niagara Gazette’s Jonah Bronstein invites all Western New Yorkers to come out and see native son Jimmer Fredette when he and BYU arrive at Buffalo tonight to play the Bulls. Bronstein and UB head coach Reggie Witherspoon anoint Fredette as the best player “ever to visit Western New York,” which we assume to mean UB’s Alumni Arena in this case. Bold claim, but the gentlemen make an interesting case.
5. We’ve heard from so many people rooting for Northwestern to finally make the NCAA Tournament this season. Chicago Sports Guru takes a look at some NU stats and offers an intriguing breakdown of the Wildcats’ remaining schedule. And we’re totally diggin’ the “John and Juice” reference in the article’s title — strong work, fellas. Despite the 9-1 start, though, KenPom projects a 18-11 (8-10) final record for the ‘Cats, but six of those crystal-ball Ls are predicted to be by four points or less. The next chance for NU to change fate (that is, the next KenPom-predicted L) is this Friday at Purdue. KenPom gives the Wildcats a 12% chance of winning. Ouch.

It was a quiet Sunday of college basketball so our recap today will be short. If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Game of Interest

• Indiana 102, South Carolina State 60: “Another home non-conference game, another dominant performance. We know the drill by now. Sure, it wasn’t a complete cakewalk. South Carolina State came out with more intensity than the Hoosiers. Indiana also hit a stretch in the early first half where it couldn’t buy a bucket — despite getting some good looks — and were letting the Bulldogs get some easy buckets. They actually snagged a 27-20 lead at the 7:59 mark in the first half, but the Hoosiers started to connect, were grabbing offensive rebounds when they weren’t and getting after it a bit more as they finished out the half on a 23-8 run to take a 43-35 lead into half. The second half was an offensive clinic as Indiana scored a whopping 59 points on 61.1 percent shooting from the field (21-of-31), 66.7 percent from three (4-of-6) and 81.3 percent from the line (13-of-16).” (Inside the Hall)

News/Analysis

• Dominican Republic Basketball Federation now looking at John Calipari: “In the words of every KSR post written about Louisville: “folks, you just couldn’t make this up if you tried.” With Rick Pitino appearing poised to be announced as the new head coach of the Puerto Rican national basketball team, reports are now surfacing that the Dominican Republic, P.R.’s Latin American rival, is making a serious play to land Kentucky head coach John Calipari.” (Card Chronicle)
• The Gameplan’s Weekly Recap: Tennessee/Michigan: “Another week, another weekly recap from the Gameplan. This week’s edition covers the Tennessee upset and Michigan loss.” (Golden Grizzlies Gameplan)
• Five Key Plays: Oakland: Breaking down the key plays in Michigan’s victory over Oakland (UM Hoops)
• Zeller goes for 27 points, 20 rebounds in win at Bosse: A look at Cody Zeller and other Indiana recruits. (Inside the Hall: Text and Video)
• Kentucky Basketball: Statistics And Other Nonesuch From Last Night’s Game: Digging deeper into the Wildcats win over Mississippi Valley State. (A Sea of Blue)
• UCLA Basketball Wins a Big One for Coach: Looking back at the Bruins victory over BYU. (Bruins Nation)
• A (Semi) Statistical Recap of USC: Using a “Four Factor” analysis to look back at the Jayhawks victory over the Trojans. (Rock Chalk Talk)

If you are interested in participating in our ATB2 feature, send in your submissions to rushthecourt@gmail.com.

Top 25 Games

• #2 Ohio State 79, South Carolina 57: “Ohio State once again rode a dominating effort from Jared Sullinger, easily dispatching the cold shooting South Carolina Gamecocks 79-57 this afternoon in Value City Arena. In front of a regional CBS audience, Sullinger blew up for 30 points and 19 rebounds in 30 minutes of action erasing any doubts as to exactly who is the best freshman in the country.” (Eleven Warriors)
• #3 Kansas 70, USC 68: “Winners on the day for Kansas are quite obviously Josh Selby, along with Thomas Robinson, rebounding, the first half defensive effort and surviving.  Losers?  The Kansas offense, taking care of the basketball, free throw shooting and the ability to put away an opponent.” (Rock Chalk Talk)
• Charlotte 49, #4 Tennessee 48: “Fans of offensive basketball would have cringed at times during this game, it was all defense from both teams for most of the game.  Charlotte controlled the tempo of this game, keeping the score low and the legs fresh, and in the last 2:30 minutes, one defense folded and one held serve.” (Green Tinted Glasses)
• Florida 57, #5 Kansas State 44: “Despite all the struggles early in the year, this team has always brought it and played well against good teams, Duke excepted.  Tonight was a different story.  Once the momentum turned against K-State, the team couldn’t find an answer.  It doesn’t get any easier, as the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels will be waiting in Kansas City next Tuesday at Sprint Center.” (Bring on the Cats)
• Gonzaga 68, #7 Baylor 64: “I just sent out about 30 text messages with the same words:  “How did that just happen!?!” What a game.  What a frustratingly, close your eyes, yell, scream, cheer, ridiculous game.” (The Slipper Still Fits)
• #12 Georgetown 99, Loyola (MD) 75: “The last tuneup of the year couldn’t have been any better for the Georgetown Hoyas.  After a week-long layoff while the players were taking finals and being college students, Georgetown came out and destroyed Loyola (MD) 99 – 75.” (Casual Hoya)
• UCLA 86, #16 BYU 79: “One year after an ugly and embarrassing performance in front of Coach, the Bruins redeemed themselves and picked up a much needed victory against the #16 ranked and previously unbeaten BYU Cougars 86-79 in the John R. Wooden Classic (box score). With the win, UCLA notches its first “good” win of the year, and brings the Pac 10 conference a much needed victory.” (Bruins Nation)
• #17 Purdue 65, Indiana State 52: “If you watched it, you saw what I saw- a team that looked rusty and uninspired at times versus a team that really wanted to win, but just didn’t have the firepower to do so.” (Boiled Sports)
• #18 Kentucky 85, Mississippi Valley State 60: “This was one of those games. Most teams, like our orange and white neighbor to the south or red and black neighbor to the west, say that through gritted teeth and a frozen grimace.  But not this Kentucky team.  “One of those games” means the same thing this year as it did last year.  Against notably inferior opponents, Kentucky has off games just like everyone else.  The difference is, off games are a matter of degree, not result.” (A Sea of Blue)

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We’re here to finish off an exciting day of college basketball. As some of you may notice there are still games going on and if you want our thoughts on those games be sure to check back later for our After the Buzzer feature.

• College kids. . .: Before we get into our analysis we should take a moment to remember that we are talking about players who are mostly between 18 and 22 years old and that because we are at or near the end of finals week(s) so even though we are going to be analyzing every game as if it were the final Monday night in April you shouldn’t read too much into any of these games. Having said that. . .
• Baylor Folds: The Bears had it right in front of them. Throughout the  early season the critics have harped on Baylor’s soft early schedule, but today was their chance to make a statement to the nation. The Bulldogs may be struggling and lack the national interest that they usually have at this point in the season, but a win over Gonzaga is always noteworthy no matter how big your program is. With Steven Gray out at halftime with back spasms, Elias Harris out with 6 minutes to go after fouling out, and Demetri Goodson turning the ball over 7 times the Bears should have had this one in the bag, but they let it get away. There is enough talent on this team that they will probably get some big wins in the Big 12 to make up for this loss, but you have to wonder about a veteran-laden team that comes up so small in a big game that was eminently winnable.
• Perry Jones: The one bright spot for Scott Drew’s squad? There was one player who stepped up today and that was uber-recruit Perry Jones. So far this season he has been under the radar with the phenomenal performances of Jared Sullinger and Kyrie Irving, but he has managed to put up solid numbers–13.1 PPG, 9 RPG, and 1.3 BPG–although it has come against lackluster competition. Today he showed us that he can do it against the big boys even if some of them were out for part of the game. If the Bears can get Jones to play more on the inside rather than staying around the 3-point line they could have a dynamic force on the inside that could feed off of LaceDarius Dunn and A.J. Walton to become a potential game-changer and help the Bears make a run in March.
• BYU Stunned: We won’t make too much of BYU’s loss at this point of the year in the opening game of the Wooden Classic to a Bruins team that apparently used the legendary coach as motivation for the game today (at least that’s what they said after the game), but it will bring up the usual questions about the Cougars namely what will they do when all-world Jimmer Fredette is struggling as he did today with 7 turnovers (along with 25 points). They were able to get an excellent offensive effort out of Brandon Davies today, but it was not nearly enough. Fredette’s brilliance will get them pretty far in March, but if they want to make that next step they will need the entire team to step up when he is off his game on both ends of the floor. On a side note, how has UCLA fallen so far in such a short period of time that a victory over BYU in the Wooden Classic would be considered an upset?

Games #74-75.  RTC Live heads to Anaheim for an interesting double-header of west coast powers.

RTC Live returns to Anaheim for the Wooden Classic, the 17^th annual edition of this event, but the first without its legendary namesake, where a quartet of western teams make up a solid schedule. The matinee features Long Beach State and St. Mary’s, a couple of teams expected to at least challenge for their regular season conference titles, although both teams still have a lot to prove. The Gaels have posted an 8-2 record thus far, but have come up short in their two biggest tests of the season (against BYU and San Diego State) with their best win over St. John’s looking a little less impressive by the day. LBSU has again played a brutal schedule, at this point considered the toughest in the country by KenPom, but have only had middling success on their way to a 5-6 record, with a win over Iowa their best outcome balanced against losses at North Carolina, Utah State, Washington and at home against San Diego State. The Niners gave North Carolina a good run their last time out behind a career-high 31 from junior forward T.J. Robinson, and he could be in for an interesting matchup with SMC junior forward Rob Jones, who has led his team in scoring in each of the last four games, including two straight double-doubles. In the main event, UCLA faces #16 BYU in a good test for the Cougars. While Anaheim is just 40 miles from the UCLA campus, and the Bruins are certain to have more fans at the game than any of the other teams, UCLA fans just don’t travel well (especially on what is supposed to be a rainy weekend in the Southland), so this won’t be a de facto home game for Ben Howland’s squad. However, if UCLA can find some kind of way to slow BYU’s Jimmer Fredette (much easier said than done, but the bulk of this task will likely fall to Malcolm Lee, with plenty of other Bruin eyes keeping track of the All-American candidate at all times), they could cause matchup problems up front. While BYU does feature a string of big guys up front, UCLA’s frontline of Tyler Honeycutt, Reeves Nelson and Joshua Smith could give the Cougars trouble. BYU head coach Dave Rose will want to see his team get out in transition early and often, and it will be interesting to see Howland’s response, as he has claimed a desire to see his team up the tempo from recent years. But likely the best chance for the Bruins to keep this one close is to ugly things up and turn this into a rockfight. Should be an interesting day of basketball in Anaheim, and we’re hoping you’ll drop in and join the conversation, starting at 11:45am PST.

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Kevin Doyle is an RTC contributor.

Introduction

Oakland Had Reason to Celebrate (AP/W. Payne)

For about a four hour stretch on Tuesday evening, I was glued to my TV. Watching college basketball on the ESPN family of networks is a beautiful distraction during finals week. Somehow, watching Oakland shock Tennessee and then Drexel hand Louisville its first loss of the season was more appealing than writing a paper. To the average hoops fans, both of these games would be of little interest. I mean, the Summit League vs. the SEC and the CAA vs. the Big East? Call me crazy, but I greatly anticipated both of these matchups. Teams coming from obscurity that are comprised of players who were a mere afterthought when recruited excites me. When further investigating both Oakland and Drexel, it wasn’t inconceivable that an upset could happen. Oakland had just lost to Michigan State by a point, and Drexel had won six of seven games. The point being, there are many teams from the Other 26 conferences that when they catch a talented BCS team on an off night, can knock them off. This is, after all, the allure of the NCAA Tournament—watching the little guy win. Seeing the likes of Oakland and Drexel defeat the big kids on Tuesday night could be a preview of what is to come during March.

Tidbits from the Rankings:

• Steady at the Top: Although UNLV lost to drop them in the rankings, San Diego State and BYU maintained their positions at one and two. A lot can happen this coming week though as both teams play three games each.
• The Mountain West and Atlantic 10 lead the way in the rankings: #1 and #2 are from the MWC and #3 and #4 from the A-10.
• There was not a whole lot of upward movement in the rankings, but two teams did have significant falls. UNLV, after losing two games, dropped five spots to number eight, and Virginia Commonwealth moved from #10 to #19 after Richmond beat them handily.
• Cleveland State, at 12-0, is still outside of the top ten, but will have an opportunity to potentially crack it with a victory against West Virginia.
• Two come and two go, again: Drexel and Southern Mississippi entered the top 20, while Dayton and Missouri State departed.
• Breakdown: 4 (MWC), 4 (CAA) 3 (A10), 3 (CUSA), 2 (Horizon), 2 (WCC), 1 (MVC), 1 (WAC)

What team impressed the most?

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That’s Debatable is back for another year of expert opinions, ridiculous assertions and general know-it-all-itude.  Remember, kids, there are no stupid answers, just stupid people.  We’ll try to do one of these each week during the season.  We’re fairly discerning around here, but if you want to be included, send us an email with your take telling us why at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

This Week’s Topic: Zach Hayes wrote an article this week examining the teams he viewed as contenders and pretenders at this point; with that in mind, who is your top contender and top pretender through the first six weeks of the season?

Matt Patton, RTC contributor

I think I have to stick with Duke for contender.  If Kyrie Irving is definitively out the whole season and Josh Selby turns out to be of a similar caliber, Kansas would probably slide up to that spot.  Ohio State comes in a relatively distant third until I see them play some conference games.  But I think the Blue Devils are the most complete team in the country: a great coach, a great backcourt and a very good (though shallow) frontcourt.  Even without Irving, I think Duke could still be the best in the country.  It’s much closer, but they still have two great senior leaders with proven postseason success, Mason Plumlee, and a couple sharpshooters who will put up 20 if you leave them alone.  On the pretender side I think the obvious choice is Connecticut with Syracuse as the bizarro runner-up.  That’s a team waiting for the wheels to come off.  Kemba Walker has carried them so far, but teams in the Big East are going to lock in on Walker and force someone else to make big plays.  Maybe Jim Calhoun will find a way to keep things going, but I doubt it.

Brian Otskey, RTC contributor

I’ll go with BYU as my top contender as they have an outright star in Jimmer Fredette and a solid supporting cast around him. The Cougars are a strong defensive team, ranked ninth in effective field goal percentage against. BYU also takes terrific care of the ball, second in the country in turnover percentage. Once they start shooting the three-ball better, this team will really take off behind Fredette, Jackson Emery and company. As for my pretender, it was a tough choice between Connecticut and Tennessee but I’m going to disagree with my good friend Zach and go with the Volunteers. I thought Bruce Pearl’s club was overrated even before the loss to Oakland and they may have peaked already. Tennessee’s great free throw rate is bound to drop plus they already give most of it away on the other end, ranked #288 in opponent’s free throw rate. The chip on their shoulder, playing so hard for Pearl despite his troubles, will eventually wear off and they’ll miss his presence on the sideline when he’s out for eight games. Tennessee turns it over too much, is not a great three-point shooting team and gives up almost 70 PPG. I realize they play an up-tempo style but that’s too high for my liking. Tennessee is still a good team that will contend in the SEC but I don’t see them as the national contender many have proclaimed them to be.

Andrew Murawa, RTC contributor

Despite Tennessee’s somewhat surprising loss to Oakland last night (ed note: this was written prior to UT’s loss to Charlotte on Friday night), that team to me is still a bona fide contender. Sure, the bad Scotty Hopson appeared for the first time this season, a somewhat scary flashback to last season’s inconsistency which we were all but promised was a thing of the past. And yes, it is awful hard to want to throw the ball into your big senior center Brian Williams in tight games when you know he’s no better than 50/50 to make free throws. But the not-so-secret weapon that convinces me that this Volunteer squad will be a force to be reckoned with is freshman Tobias Harris, who Bruce Pearl and company are only beginning to get the best out of. Eventually more and more of the Vol offense will run through Harris and, being a more than capable creator for teammates, he can get more open looks for Hopson, create easy opportunities for Williams, and just generally make the entire Tennessee team better. While some will see the Oakland loss as a sign that Tennessee is just a pretender, this Volunteer team you see now is but a pale shadow of what could become by March.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

This is the last major weekend before conference play begins in earnest and it features a bunch of solid games but none that really jump out at you as must-watch. All in all it’s a pretty good set of games. Don’t forget about the two games in the Bahamas on Saturday (Richmond vs. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State). They’re not on television but are meaningful, especially the latter. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Texas vs. North Carolina (Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC) – 4 pm Saturday on CBS (****)

A Smaller Venue in Greenboro, But Still a Great Game

You may never see a game between two unranked teams have this much talent on the court as this one. Yes the Longhorns are ranked in both the AP and Coaches polls but they aren’t in our own top 25. Texas has played better this year on the strength of defense and better chemistry though a loss at USC was cause for concern. Still, Texas has a ton of talent and has the ability to turn this season into a successful one. Leading scorer Jordan Hamilton still has a so-so shot selection but he’s connecting on 41% of his treys, a positive sign for Rick Barnes. Freshman Tristan Thompson has also been a plus for the Longhorns, giving them an athletic post presence who can score and defend very well. When you look at this matchup with North Carolina however, Tyler Zeller (16/8) is going to have a significant height advantage inside. You may see Barnes turn to Matt Hill for a bigger defensive presence in the paint in an attempt to control UNC’s big man. Each team has had some issues at the point guard, especially North Carolina. The Tar Heels have seen better play from Larry Drew II (2:1 A/T ratio) but questions remain with the team averaging 15 turnovers per contest. With a talented freshman in waiting, Roy Williams has to make a decision on who should see the majority of time at the point as they head into ACC play. For Texas, Dogus Balbay has seen his minutes drop in favor of freshman Cory Joseph, a move that’s understandable from an offensive standpoint but questionable in the eyes of some who see the experienced Balbay as a team leader and an effective distributor, not to mention an outstanding defender. Texas is not a particularly great shooting team as a whole so the transition to Joseph could be more about transition opportunities and easy buckets plus Joseph is a much better shooter. As for North Carolina, getting Harrison Barnes going could be the key between middling outside the top 25 and being a consistently ranked team and #2 in the ACC. Barnes is still in a slump, shooting just 33% overall over his last five games including a dismal 5-24 (21%) from three. He’s still averaging double figures and has done a nice job rebounding but the Tar Heels need more out of their star freshman. To become a really good team, UNC needs John Henson to become a consistent third option. He rebounds very well but he’s in double figures one night and single digits the next. He may have a hard time with Thompson inside but Henson is able to stretch his game out a bit and that may open things up inside for the Tar Heels. This figures to be another close game, far different from last year’s Texas blowout. This time North Carolina has the crowd to their advantage and may come out on top by a few points. It’s a huge game for UNC, their last non-conference opportunity for a quality win. Texas still has games with Michigan State and Connecticut but this is a big game for them too in a quasi-road environment. We wouldn’t be surprised either way but a slight edge has to go to UNC in this game.

#5 Kansas State vs. Florida (BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise, FL) – 3:30 pm Saturday on FSN (****)

This is the first of two key games for Kansas State, the second coming on Tuesday against UNLV. Winning one or both will certainly help the Wildcats grab a better seed in the NCAA Tournament come March. Against Florida, K-State will have to contend with the Gators’ trapping pressure defense, something that could be a problem given their propensity for turnovers and some point guard issues. Jacob Pullen has been the main distributor at four assists per game but he turns it over more than three times per game, the most on a team that averages 16 turnovers as a unit. Florida’s back court pressure could cause a lot of problems for Kansas State and plenty of extra possessions for the Gators. Pullen doing a lot of ball handling could also be a factor in his overall struggle relative to last season. He’s never been a great shooter, 40% overall from the floor for his career, but his three point shooting is down over six percent to 33% this season. It is true that other teams are trying to lock him up like Duke did, but Pullen has to work through this and become a better player in order to lift Kansas State to the next level where they can compete for a national championship. Frank Martin may go with Will Spradling at the point in order to take some pressure off Pullen. As for Florida, expect them to fire up three’s as usual (17 per game) even though the Gators shoot just 32% as a team. Billy Donovan loves the trey, yet another Rick Pitino protégé who sticks to the system no matter the personnel he has. Erving Walker has improved dramatically but Kenny Boynton still can’t find the range for Florida. Walker shoots 20% better than Boynton from deep yet Boynton has 15 more attempts this season. Kansas State should look to isolate Walker and aggressively defend him, keeping the ball out of his hands. Pullen and Rodney McGruder may have to match Walker’s deep shooting but Martin will be content with Boynton chucking shots up and hitting once in a while, requiring Kansas State to clear the boards well. Both teams rank high in offensive rebounding percentage so the Wildcats must put an emphasis on keeping Florida off the glass as that will lead to easy Gator put backs. Florida is #15 in two point percentage, largely a result of offensive rebounds and the play of Vernon Macklin inside. Macklin against Curtis Kelly will be a key matchup to watch in the low post as each player finishes well and can rebound the basketball effectively. Kansas State should not bank on outscoring Florida from the line considering their awful free throw shooting (55%) and Florida’s ability to keep opponents off the line, second in the nation in defensive free throw rate. Only three players on K-State’s roster shoot over 70% from the line and Pullen is the only one of those three who gets there often. Martin’s depth will take a hit if Wally Judge is out, dealing with personal issues, but we don’t think that will have a major impact on the game. Kansas State is still a very deep team, able to go eight or nine deep if necessary. This should be a terrific game that may come down to the very end. Ken Pomeroy predicts a two-point Florida win so this game is essentially a toss-up. We see it that way as well.

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So, let’s play a game. I tell you that I’m going to flip a coin (let’s say a 2009 U.S. quarter) exactly thirty times. Your job is to guess how many times that the coin is going to come up “heads.” Very cleverly, you notice that that typically a coin comes up heads about 50% of the time, so you should guess that, in this game, you will get heads about fifteen times. Okay, so I flip the coin the first five times and, surprise of surprises, I end up getting heads four out of five times. Does this mean you were wrong? Does this mean that the coin will continue to turn up heads at a 80% clip? Of course not. It’s just that variance is “magnified“ in small sample sizes. If we flip the coin the full thirty times, it’s almost certainly going to turn up heads less than 80% of the time.

Obviously, we are here not here to talk about flipping coins, but rather college basketball. So, what’s the relevance? The relevance is that right now, we are about a third of the way through the college basketball season and people are pointing to extraordinary statistics and acting as if they are going to hold up through March and April. The coin won’t turn up heads 80% over a big enough sample size, and Pittsburgh won’t continue to grab 47.9% of offensive rebounds against its opponents. Some of the extraordinary stats in college basketball are simply due to small sample size. Some teams tasting truly rarefied air in December are destined to fall back to Earth come March. Who’s due for a decline?

Glad you asked. What I’ve done is checked up on who was the leader on the offensive and defensive ends of the court in regards to each of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors at the end of the 2009-10 season. Then, I checked Ken Pomeroy’s rankings to see which teams were currently performing better than the very best team from last year. The logic is simple (and admittedly a little simplistic): It’s unlikely that many teams this season are going to perform too much better than what the best team in a given category did the year before. Unsurprisingly, at this point early in the season, there are quite a few teams performing better than any team performed last year. Let’s break it down category by category and figure out which teams are cruising for a bruising. Or a decline in efficiency. One or the other.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

None of these teams are shooting that much better than 2009-10 Denver (57.9%), but still, betting on Kansas or Georgetown’s shooting to cool off isn’t a bad bet. It’s a little early to predict Duke’s shooting to decline, but if Kyrie Irving’s absence isn’t explanatory enough for you, here’s another reason.

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