Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the Patriot League and America East Conference.

Current Standings (overall record):

1. Army  9-2
2. Lafayette  7-5
3. Lehigh  5-6
4. Bucknell  4-8
5. Navy  4-8
6. Holy Cross  2-9
7. American  2-10
8. Colgate  1-9

Hottest Team: 

Army (3-0) — W 59-46 at Dartmouth, W 62-56 vs. Mount St. Vincent, W 54-46 vs. New Hampshire

The Black Knights continued their hot streak and are in the midst of their second four-game winning streak of the season.  They finished the road trip with a record of 2-1 winning the final game at Dartmouth before handling Mount Saint Vincent and New Hampshire at West Point.  This is the first season since 1978-79 that Army has put together two four-game winning streaks.

Stud Player:

Vlad Moldoveanu  Jr., American — 19 PPG and 4.7 RPG in 26.7 MPG

Moldoveanu has shined in his first three games since transferring over from George Mason.  He scored 26 points in the upset victory over Depaul, the conference’s biggest win to date.  Moldoveanu is shooting great from all over the floor: 45% from the field, 43.5% from downtown, and 84.6% from the charity stripe.  It is going to be great to watch this 6’9 shooter during the conference schedule.

Thoughts on the Patriot League:

The Patriot League has gotten some national recognition over the past two weeks.  The hottest team in the league received a vote in the Associated Press Top 25 for the second consecutive week and, for the second straight season, Marquis Hall was nominated for the Bob Cousy Award, an award given to the top collegiate male point guard across all divisions.  Finally, an upset by a league doormat over a Big East team brings some legitimacy to the league.

Army already has their second four-game winning streak of the season going.  In the streak the defense is giving up an average of only 47 PPG.  A big reason for that is their ability to force turnovers.  Seniors Cleveland Richard, Josh Miller, and Marcus Nelson are ranked 1-2-3 in the Patriot League in steals this year.  Richard leads the way with 2.2 per game. They also are 2-4-5 on Army’s all-time list at 128, 124, and 122, respectively.  The all-time record at Army is 143 steals held by George Tatum.  The Black Knights have some consistent scorers, too.  Richard has broken double figures in every game throughout the stretch.  Sophomore guard Julian Simmons and backcourt mate Miller also have each reached double figures in two games during the streak.

The hottest team that does not reside in West Point is the Lafayette Leopards.  They went 2-0 in the last two weeks before exams.  Lafayette is riding a three-game winning streak into the holiday break.  The next game is not until the 29th at Delaware.  The last two wins came against two New York teams.  First they beat Long Island at home by fourteen, followed by a five-point victory at St. Francis.  In Brooklyn the Leopards shot 70% in the second half, but St. Francis managed to hang with them throughout the game.  A seventeen-point lead turned into a four-point game with under two minutes to play.  Sophomore guard Jim Mower led the way with 16 points off of 4-7 shooting from three-point range.  Three other Leopards scored in double figures.  Mower is shooting over fifty percent from downtown this season, good enough to lead the Patriot league.

Lehigh went 2-1 over the past two weeks.  In the 66-55 win over Marist, Lehigh led by as many as 21 points in the second half.  Marist made a run to pull themselves within seven with under nine minutes to go.  Lehigh was then able to buckle down and stretch it back to 11, which ended up being the final difference.  Seniors Zahir Carrington and Marquis Hall each scored in double digits with 12 and 16 points, respectively.  Carrington also finished with 13 rebounds for the Mountain Hawks.  Lehigh hit fewer field goals and threes than Marist, but got to the line 21 more times.  That ended up being the difference in the game.  In the loss to St Joseph’s the two seniors couldn’t have played any worse.  Hall finished with only one basket and Carrington had ten turnovers.  The Mountain Hawks as a team committed ten turnovers. Even with their early 10-0 lead, the turnovers were too hard to overcome.

Bucknell is in the midst of a five-game winning streak.  The most recent loss was a 32-point thrashing by Notre Dame in South Bend.  Bryson Johnson had 17 point and Stephen Tyree had his best game this year with 15 points and six rebounds.  They had no answer for Notre Dame’s star Luke Harangody, with 20 points and 11 rebounds, or the Irish’s hot outside shooting.  Notre Dame went 9-15 in three-pointers in the first half.  Ben Hansbrough scored 14 points in the first half.

Navy is also suddenly on a serious slide losing the last four games in a row.  The Midshipmen played Seton Hall close in the first half before getting blown out 66-34 in the second half in Newark.  Senior guard Chris Harris was the only Navy player to finish in double figures with 12 points, but it took him 17 shots to reach that total.  In the two most recent losses he has shot an abysmal 6-31 from the field.

Holy Cross lost their only game of the most recent session, an 82-79 setback to Sacred Heart.  Sophomore guard R.J Evans led the way with 20 points and five rebounds.  Holy Cross had a five-point lead at half and was up by as many as 11 points in the second half, but could not put Sacred Heart away. Sacred Heart regained the lead with under five minutes to play and never relinquished it the rest of the way.  The Crusaders shot well from the field, 50% from three-point range.  Holy Cross also out rebounded the Pioneers 47-34, but turned the ball over 23 times.

American picked up their second win of the year over Depaul.  The win was huge for the Patriot League over the legendary Big East conference.  Vlad Moldoveanu led the way with 26 points and eight rebounds in the 62-57 victory.  Stephen Lumpkins added pulled down a career-high 14 rebounds inside and Nick Hendra scored a career-high 17 points. American led at half 32-24 and was able to hold on in the second stanza.  The Eagles were down 57-56 with three minutes to play but scored the final six points of the game for the victory.

In the last version of Checking In on the Patriot League the key upcoming matchup was Colgate’s game against Dartmouth.  It wasconsidered Colgate’s best chance at getting a win before the conference schedule started up.  The prophecy turned out correct.  Colgate was victorious against Dartmouth to break their nine-game losing streak, 63-44.  It was a five-point game with five minutes to play, but Colgate allowed only one basket the rest of the way.  It was the least amount of points they had held an opponent to since the 2008 Patriot League semifinals.  Sophomore forward Yaw Gyawu led the way with 14 points.

Key Upcoming Matchup:

01.06.10 – Holy Cross at NC State – 7 pm.

With American’s recent victory over Depaul the Patriot League can start envisioning some more upsets over teams from the bigger conferences. American has Florida on December 28th, but the above game might be a better chance for the league.  Sean Kearney is still trying to put together the parts to get this team playing how they should be.  Will they have it together by the matchup in Raleigh?

Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the Patriot League and America East Conference.

Current Standings (with overall record):

1. Army  6-2
2. Lafayette  5-5
3. Bucknell  4-6
4. Navy  4-6
5. Lehigh  3-5
6. Holy Cross  2-8
7. American  1-8
8. Colgate  0-8

Hottest Team: Army (3-1 on the week)

W 64-48 vs. Yale, W 64-58 vs. Bryant, L 74-67 at Buffalo, W 61-40 at Farleigh Dickinson

Coach Zach Spiker has these Black Knights playing better than expected.  No one can say they have had a tough schedule so far, but you play the games in front of you and Army is the only Patriot League team with a winning record at this point.

Stud Player: Chris Harris G- Sr., Navy, 22.0 PPG in 34 MPG.

Harris got many accolades for his recent performances, including Patriot League Player of the Week, ECAC Division I Player of the Week, and Mid Majority Player of the Week.  Harris is one of only nine players nationally with at least two 30-point games so far this year.  He also hit this game winner:

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Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the America East Conference and Patriot League.

2009-10 Patriot League (Conference, Overall)

1. Lafayette  (0-0, 4-1)
2. Army (0-0, 3-1)
3. Lehigh (0-0, 3-2)
4. Bucknell (0-0, 3-3)
5. Navy (0-0, 2-3)
6. Colgate (0-0, 0-4)
7. Holy Cross (0-0, 0-5)
8. American (0-0, 0-6)

Team of the week: Lafayette (4-1) – W 81-72 vs. Wagner, L 81-70 at Sacred Heart, W 88-77 at St. Francis (PA), W 69-52 at NJIT, W 86-82 vs. Hartford

Player of the week: Jared Mintz– Jr. Lafayette 18.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 68.8% FG, 1.0 spg

Thoughts on the AE.

Three teams are still looking for their first victory on the season, while one team has came out and surprised us all with their start by matching their non-conference win total from last year already. The top scorer in the league finally found his shooting touch last game and the preseason pick is looking like a mistake.

The surprise team so far this season is Lafayette. The Leopards have won four out of their first five, with their only blemish on the record an eleven-point loss at Sacred Heart. Offensively they look great. They are shooting over fifty percent from the field, and over forty percent from three-point range. When a team shoots as good as that it’s hard to beat them. The key to this team so far has been big man Jared Mintz. Mintz is averaging over 18 points on almost 69 percent shooting from the field. He has led the team in scoring and rebounding for four of the five games. This has opened up the floor for the shooters. Lafayette has three major contributors shooting over 44 percent from three-point range. Against Hartford, six players scored in double figures. Mintz led the way with 18 points, but it was the three-point shooting that helped Lafayette jump out to a big lead. Five different players hit a three-ball for the Leopards within the first ten minutes of the game. Lafayette was up by as many as 22 before allowing Hartford back into the game in the second half. If the Leopards keep it up they will be a hard out all year.

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Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the America East Conference and Patriot League.

2009-10 America East Standings

1. Stony Brook 2-0
2. New Hampshire 1-0
3. Maine 2-1
4. Binghamton 1-1
5. Vermont 1-1
6. Albany 1-2
7. Hartford 1-2
8. Boston University 0-3
9. UMBC 0-2

Team of the week: Stony Brook (2-0) (W 75-57 at UMES 11/13, W 87-53 vs. MSM 11/19)

Player of the week: Marqus Blakely, Sr., Vermont. (21.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 4 BPG, 3 SPG)

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Michael Hurley is the RTC correspondent for the Patriot League and America East Conference.  Click here for all of our 2009-10 Season Preview materials..

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Holy Cross  (11-3)
2. Lehigh  (10-4)
3. Army  (9-5)
4. Navy  (7-7)
5. Bucknell  (6-8)
6. Colgate  (6-8)
7. Lafayette  (4-10)
8. American  (3-11)

All-Conference Team:

• Marquis Hall (G), Sr., Lehigh
• R.J Evans (G), Soph., Holy Cross
• Andrew Keister (F), Jr.,  Holy Cross
• Zahir Carrington (F), Sr., Lehigh
• Patrick Behan (F/C), Jr., Bucknell

6th Man. Chris Harris (G), Sr., Navy

Impact Newcomer. Jeff Holton (F), Fr., American

What You Need to Know. American’s dominance it seems will come to an end this year after back-to-back Patriot League championships.  The “American” have seven freshman on the 2009-10 team, and the current team has zero combined starts between them, so they will experience a steep learning curve. With the most well known coach in the PL gone (Ralph Willard at Holy Cross), we will have to see if Sean Kearney can carry the torch with a squad full of talented returning players in Worcester.  With his experience coaching at this level, I am willing to bet he can, which is why they are my pick for the conference champions.  As a whole, the entire league returns more talent this year than any year in recent memory.

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As part of our ongoing attempt to bring you the best college basketball coverage anywhere, we enlisted the editors from the finest team-specific blogs we could find to write posts explaining why their team will win tomorrow.

Our first submission is brought to you by Pete of LetsGoNova.com.

Make no mistake about it: Villanova is the underdog tomorrow. North Carolina is favored by 7.5 points in Vegas and by 4 points by KenPom (with a 66 percent chance of victory).

More intuitively, common sense tells us the Tarheels are the superior team. North Carolina features five likely future first-round draft picks: Ed Davis, Danny Green, Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Ty Lawson will all cash big NBA paychecks.

Villanova might sneak Dante Cunningham into this year’s second round, but that’s pretty much it in terms of NBA prospects as of right now. (Corey Fisher, Scottie Reynolds, and Corey Stokes are also plausible NBA candidates, but are not quite there yet.)

The Tar Heels have lost just four games this season compared to seven for Villanova. While the Wildcats squeaked by Pittsburgh last weekend in one of the all-time great NCAA tournament games, North Carolina blew out Blake Griffin and Oklahoma, with a 12-point margin of victory in a game that was not even that close.

Carolina has not really been challenged in the tournament so far, winning four blow-outs. Villanova trailed American by double digits in the second half before coming up with the win. The ‘Cats also played Pittsburgh to a virtual draw for 39 minutes and 55 seconds before Scottie Reynolds entered the pantheon of great NCAA tournament buzzer-beaters to win the game.

Reynolds hits "The Shot" (Credit: Getty Images)

Villanova was able to blow out both UCLA and Duke, which is a good sign.

North Carolina also will enjoy a tremendous coaching edge. I don’t care how much you like Jay Wright; Roy Williams is one of the all-time greats. I don’t think there can be much debate about that.

Positives for Villanova include a rapid, intense improvement in quality of play late in the season, a versatile bunch of players who can multitask on the court, a superior half-court defense, and a likely favorable crowd in Detroit, especially if Michigan State wins the opener.

Conventional wisdom also says that the Wildcats play “tougher” than the Heels, but I am not so sure toughness matters so much when your opponent has a lineup full of NBA players. (I do think it matters some.) We shall see.

So, in the face of these long odds, how can Villanova actually win the game?

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EAST REGION PREVIEW (By Dave Zeitlin and Steve Moore)

Since there seem to be more than a few obvious picks in the East Region, RTC gives you the bonus coverage you’ve come to expect. Not only do we pick the first-round game – but we also pit a non-basketball alum from each school against each other in a no-holds-barred blog battle. Enjoy.

Thursday Games – Philadelphia, PA

(3) Villanova vs. (14) American (7:20 ET)

SM: Picking a 14 over a 3 is the cool bracket thing to do. Not here. The ‘Nova players could roll out of their dormitory beds, take the train into town and still dismantle the best the Patriot League has to offer. Outside of the 1-16 games, this may be the biggest lock of the first round.

DZ: Yes, an American win would definitely be one of the biggest shockers of the tournament, considering ‘Nova will virtually be playing at home and hasn’t lost to a team with a Pomeroy ranking less than 28 all season. That said, I don’t think the game will be a blowout. Standout Garrison Carr (17.8) leads a senior-laden American team that is on a 13-game winning streak and is returning to the Dance for a second straight year. ‘Nova by 12.

Alumni Throwdown – Maria Bello (Villanova) vs. Goldie Hawn (American): SM: No contest. The Cooler is a highly underrated film. Although, William H. Macy? Really?  DZ: What the hell is a Maria Bello? Maybe I need to see The Cooler. Also, Goldie Hawn scares me here. I think I’ll pass on this one.

(6) UCLA vs. (11) VCU (9:50 ET)

SM: Ever since Seth Davis said he’d “put on a VCU sweatshirt” while falling all over the Rams during Sunday’s selection show, VCU has been a trendy upset pick. Well, count me in. Larry Sanders not only has a great TV show under his belt, but his arms are long enough to give Rick Majerus a real hug. UCLA doesn’t want to be in Philly, and Eric Maynor makes sure the Bruins head home early.

DZ: Maynor might be the most well-known little-known player in this year’s Dance after his shot sent home Duke in ’07, but can we expect him to do it again with a different supporting cast? That’s a lot to ask, especially when the opponent is a UCLA team that will guard his shorts off. Darren Collison and the Bruins may not make their fourth straight trip to the final four, but they won’t be bounced in the first round. UCLA by 7.

Alumni Throwdown – Jack Black (UCLA) vs. The Real Patch Adams (VCU): SM: Dr. Adams helps people on a daily basis, while Black is the brains behind one of the finest albums ever, Tenacious D’s self-titled effort. But because Dr. Adams’s story contributed to the downfall of Robin Williams, the nod goes to Mr. Black. DZ: I hope you realize you just picked a comedian who once said “Dude, if you get the nachos stuck together, that’s one nacho” over someone who brings limitless hope and joy to orphans around the world. That pretty much makes you a bad person … but yeah, I agree. The movie Patch Adams did not leave a lasting impression on me, but I consider Saving Silverman one of the most underrated comedies. Sorry, sick children – Black gets the nod.

Thursday Games – Greensboro, N.C

(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota (7:10 ET)

SM: I’m already on record as saying that Texas is overrated and overseeded, so I have to go with the Gophers in this battle of two tourney-tested coaches, Tubby Smith and Rick Barnes. Minnesota posted a long-forgotten win over Louisville back in the fall, and has endured plenty of battles in the underrated Big Ten. Plus, I enjoyed two sub-zero days on campus in Minneapolis back in 2004, and could not have met nicer people. The Mall of America was pretty cool, too.

DZ: While it’s hard to pick Barnes over Tubby, I think Texas will avoid the upset here. The Gophers have really cooled off after a great start, winning only four of their last 11 games. And the Longhorns, while also inconsistent, have two go-to players in guard A.J. Abrams (16.3 ppg) and forward Damion James (15.4 ppg). Eleven straight tourney appearances won’t hurt either. Texas by a bucket.

Alumni Throwdown – Matthew McConaughey (Texas) vs. Tony Dungy (Minnesota): SM: Both have stood on the sidelines at big football games, but only Dungy really belonged there. The all-around good guy Dungy wins this in a landslide. DZ: What a weird matchup. You can’t say anything bad about Dungy, but I don’t dislike McConaughey nearly as much as Stewie from Family Guy. And I respect the fact that he’s essentially played himself in all of his movies, even if it did seem a little odd in We Are Marshall. Either way, I’m going with McConaughey in a major upset.

(2) Duke vs. (15) Binghamton (9:40 ET)

SM: As much as I would like to pick my America East brethren here, I have to believe that Jon Scheyer will get away with enough traveling violations to help his Blue Devils edge the Bearcats. Seriously though, D.J. Rivera is a great player (even if not a great student), but he can’t beat the McDonald’s All-Americans Coach K brings deep off the bench. Blue Devils run away late for a 15-point win.

DZ: I would love, love, love to see Binghamton keep it close – if only for my oldest friend who’s making the trip to Greensboro to see his alma mater. But I don’t see it happening. Duke is bound for a deep run after a couple of early exits, and Coach K will pick apart an athletic but undisciplined Binghamton team making its first trip to the Dance. This one could get ugly … Duke by a bunch.

Alumni Throwdown – Richard Nixon (Duke) vs. Billy Baldwin (Binghamton): SM: Be honest, you expected BU’s most famous alum, Tony Kornheiser. But we throw curveballs here at RTC. Baldwin has had a less-than stellar film career, but I mean, even a Baldwin can beat Richard Nixon in this bracket. DZ: What is this? Neither of us were alive for the Nixon presidency and I can’t remember ever thinking about Billy Baldwin once. Umm … I’ll shake things up and go with Nixon, only because I liked Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon and because Baldwin is a Yankees fan. Wait, weren’t we supposed to be talking about basketball?

American University (#14, East, Philadelphia pod)
vs Villanova (#3)
Thur, 3/19 at 7:20 PM
Vegas Line:  +16.5

General Profile
Location: Washington, DC
Conference: Patriot League, automatic bid
Coach: Jeff Jones, 149-120
08-09 Record: 24-7, 13-1
Last 12 Games: 12-0; 13-game winning streak
Best Win: Manhattan (60-48 on 12/29 on the road)
Worst Loss: George Washington (63-50 on 12/17 on the road)
Off. Efficiency Rating: 104.3, 118th nationally
Def. Efficiency Rating: 98.6, 124th nationally

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Garrison Carr (17.8 PPG) & Derrick Mercer (11.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, and 4.4 APG)
Unsung Hero: Brian Gilmore (12.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): N/A
Key Injuries: N/A
Depth: 21.4% (328th nationally); the bench accounts for 21.4% of the team’s total minutes
Achilles Heel: Free throw shooting (64.8% as a team)
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Dante Cunningham and Scottie Reynolds get in foul trouble. Realistically they might have had a chance if the NCAA hadn’t given their opponent a home game. They would have a better shot being a #15 seed playing a #2.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Villanova doesn’t get lost on the way to the arena in its hometown.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; Lost to Tennessee in the 1st round
Streak: 1 year
Best NCAA Finish: 2008; 1st round
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.04; on average, they win 0.04 less games than expected based on their seeding each year they make the NCAA tournament

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 137 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: According to The Princeton Review, they are the most politically active campus in the nation (not surprising because of their location). According to PETA, they are also the most vegan-friendly campus. They have dry dorms.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Outside of its choice of name (now known for being those cheap stores in the mall with everything 70% off all the time)?  See the last two sentences (above). Any time PETA likes you, it’s not something to be proud of.
Prediction: American is a fine team but they’ve drawn a buzz saw — Villanova basically at home.  Obviously an upset of major proportions if AU could pull it off…but I wouldn’t count on it.
Major RTC stories: Patriot League Wrapup & Tourney Preview

Preview written by Rush the Court.

Ed. note – check back often as this post will be updated regularly…

How about those brackets?  If you’re like us, you’ve already figured a way that just about every team will both win and lose its first round game.   For example, Arizona has better talent than Utah, but which Wildcat team will show up – the one from mid-season or the one from the last three weeks?  Decisions, decisions…

To help you think more clearly about your bracket as well as to institute some fun into the analysis that you’re no doubt already obsessing over, we have put together a nice breakdown of each region for you.  We’ll give you the teams that are overseeded, underseeded, and are guaranteed to advance.  The best games to watch in the first round and in the later rounds.  The juiciest match-ups for purists and casual fans.  Some sleeper teams for both the Sweets and the Four.  Upsets.  Thanks to the RTC Region correspondents, basically, you name it, we’ve got it.

We will be doing Boom Goes the Dynamite! all weekend starting with Thursday’s games, as appropriate.  Since our manpower will be lower than usual, we’ll be relying on you guys to help us out in the comments as we move through the first 48 games.

We are also privileged to have RTC Live at the Philadelphia pod this weekend.  The games we will be covering are:

• #8 BYU vs. #9 Texas A&M – 12:30pm Thurs. 3/19

Here are the links for each QnD Region Analysis (+ correspondent), which will take you to another page on the site called 2009 Tourney Previews (which can also be accessed through the handy-dandy tab above):

• East (Dave Zeitlin and Steve Moore)
• South (Mike Lemaire)
• Midwest (Zach Hayes)
• West (Ryan ZumMallen)

We also have Game-by-Game Analysis for the entirety of the First Round…

• East (Thu. games and Fri. games)
  
• South
• Midwest
• West (Thu. games and Fri. games)
  

Here are some of our other features celebrating what we like to call, “Christmas in March“:

Mascot Death Match – First Round (vote for which mascot would win a battle to the death!)

• Thursday Games
• Friday Games
• Day 3
  

The Top 3 Sweetest NCAA Moments

• #1 – The ’79 Tourney – More than Just Magic & Larry
• #2 – The Open Road Leads to the Final Four
• #3 – Loved, Hated But Never Ignored
  

Behind the Lines – NCAA Tourney

• NCAA Tournament Day One
  

Some Hooponomics

• Why You Should Be Wary of Pitt
• Pythagorean Consistency
• Offensive Variation and A Short Word about Defense
  

Columnists

• Beware Bracket Advice! (John Stevens)
• It’s Christmas in March (Dave Zeitlin)
• NCAA Basketball 2009 – the BCS Version (nvr1983)

John Stevens from Las Vegas – coming soon…

… and more.

2009 Team Tourney Previews: We enlisted the help of our legion of correspondents and readers to put together previews for all 65 teams in order to give you the most insightful analysis you will find anywhere. We’ll be uploading previews over the next 24 hours so check back frequently.

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EAST REGION PREVIEW (by Dave Zeitlin and Steve Moore)

Favorite
Pittsburgh, 1, 28-4 – DZ: We at RTC love the upset. But let’s be honest: Pitt has a relative cakewalk. SM: No argument here. I’m a man of few words (not really).

Should They Falter
Villanova, 3, 26-7 – DZ: Upperclassmen guards own this tournament. And in that department, Scottie Reynolds is as good as they come. SM: I agree here, as well. Dave and I wouldn’t work well on ESPN First Take – too much agreement. DZ: Could this be because we agreed on mostly everything before we started writing? Maybe.

Grossly Overseeded
DZ: Xavier, 4, 25-7 – The Musketeers have lost five of their last 10 against only average competition. SM: Texas, 7, 22-11 – It’s hard to call a seven seed grossly overseeded, but count me among the non-believers when it comes to the Longhorns. A.J. Abrams can shoot the lights out, but he can also disappear in big moments. Texas feels more like a 9-to-11 seed to me.

Grossly Underseeded
DZ: UCLA, 6, 25-8 – A No. 9 Pomeroy rating should have outweighed a bad loss to USC in the conference tourney. SM: Minnesota, 10, 22-10 – It’s hard to ask for more than a 10 seed when you’re 9-9 in conference, but it’s easy to forget Minnesota’s win over Louisville back in the fall. And Tubby Smith in March is a pretty good bet. The Golden Gophers are the fourth team Tubby has taken to the Dance.

Sweet Sixteen Sleeper
DZ: Portland State, 13, 23-9 — Realistically, No. 12 Wisconsin probably has the better chance to get to the second weekend, but we like the little guy here. Portland State has an impressive win over Gonzaga on its resume, too. SM: Binghamton, 15, 23-8 – OK, so it probably won’t happen, but I’ve gotta show the America East some love. My alma mater (Boston University) hasn’t gone dancing since 2002, so I have to support my low-major conference brethren.

Final Four Sleeper (#4 seed or lower)
Florida State, 5, 25-9 – DZ: Coming off an impressive run in the ACC tournament – but a tough loss, too – the Seminoles will be hungry to make a deep run. Let’s just hope they leave the tomahawk chop at home. SM: I agree the Seminoles can make noise in the second weekend. Whether those wins will be vacated in 10 years or so? That’s a different story.

Carmelo Anthony Award
DZ: DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh (15.6 ppg, 12.2 rpg, .599 FGP) – Everyone knows how strong Blair is. And everyone who doesn’t should watch this. SM: Toney Douglas, Florida State (21.1 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 38% 3-point pct.) – Senior guards are critical to March success, as Douglas proved during the ACC tournament last week.

Stephen Curry Award
DZ: D.J. Rivera, Binghamton (20.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.8 spg, .468 FGP) – The Philadelphia product and St. Joe’s transfer is legit – though he’s not quite as cherubic as last year’s Mr. March, Steph Curry. SM: Jeremiah Dominguez, Portland State (12.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, .437 3-pt. pct) – The Vikings could give Xavier some trouble, and yet another senior point guard will be key. Dominguez dropped 22 on Montana State in the Big Sky final just to get into the dance.

Home Cooking
(3) Villanova, 16 miles from Wachovia Center; (2) Duke, 56 miles from Greensboro Coliseum – DZ: Villanova plays plenty of games at the Wachovia Center, so this will feel like a home game for them. And, of course, Duke in Carolina is always a tough matchup. SM: It’s likely that most Philly-area residents who bought tickets months ago for this site are Villanova fans, anyway, which gives the Wildcats a huge advantage.

Can’t Miss First Round Game
UCLA vs. VCU, Thursday – DZ: Darren Collison and Eric Maynor will battle for acronym bragging rights in this intriguing contest between a perennial giant and a strong mid-major. SM: Far and away this is the game I’m most looking forward to. The large Nova-heavy crowd will gravitate toward the underdog anyway, and Maynor should bring them to their feet.

Don’t Miss This One Either
Duke vs. Binghamton , Thursday – DZ: We love how this game pits the squeaky clean program from the ACC against the thugs and retreads from the America East. SM: As an alum of the real BU, I hate that the Bearcats try to use that moniker. But I’ll be rooting for them anyway.

Lock of the Year:

SM: Villanova cruises to the Elite 8, and is never really challenged along the way. With two games in their quasi-home gym, and a Sweet 16 date with perennial disappointment Duke, this bracket fits the Wildcats better than Jay Wright’s three-piece suit. I understand that hating on Duke is easier than getting away with a travel at Cameron Indoor, but Villanova has an experienced leader in Scottie Reynolds, and a nearly extinct collegiate species in Dante Cunningham: A big man who can consistently drill 16-footers. Want another East Region lock? Wright will edge out Bruce Pearl as the bracket’s best-dressed coach. But it’ll be close. DZ: Are you talking about Pearl’s orange blazer or his bare chest, because either way his outfits would make even Lloyd Christmas blush. I agree with a deep run for ’Nova but I’m a bit wary of its second-round matchup. Also, based on what I just wrote, I clearly don’t know what the word lock means.

Juiciest Potential Matchup – purists
Duke vs. UCLA, Sweet 16. SM: Two traditional powers with some of the most talented recruits in the nation and a bevy of devoted (and often annoying) fans. It would also bring two coaches face to face with their recent reputations for premature exits. Coach K vs. Jamie Dixon – they wouldn’t both be able to fail (there’s no ties in the Big Dance, right Mr. McNabb?). DZ: I think John Wooden deserves to see another deep tournament run before he turns 100. And I think Duke needs to be fined every time they slap the floor on defense.

Juiciest Potential Matchup – media
SM: Pittsburgh vs. Villanova, Regional Final – It’s a long way off, but this one would send the suits at ESPN into a downright tizzy. Not only would it reaffirm the Worldwide Leader’s obsession with the Big East this year (they happen to ignore the atrocities that are St. John’s, South Florida, Depaul and Rutgers), but it would provide a handful of incredible individual matchups: Blair vs. Cunningham, Fields vs. Reynolds, Wright vs. Dixon. Plus, it would further infuriate the Penn State fans to see two Pennsylvania teams fighting for a Final Four spot while they get bounced from the NIT. And as anyone who knows me can tell you, anything that makes Penn State fans cry and complain is fine with me. DZ: Pittsburgh vs. UCLA, Regional final – If UCLA makes it to the regional final against Pitt that would make for an intriguing matchup, as well. Could Howland, Pitt’s former coach, stop his old team, and good friend Jamie Dixon, from making its first final four? UCLA did beat Pitt in the 2007 tourney, but this is a much stronger Pitt team and a far worse UCLA team.

We Got Screwed
UCLA, 6, 25-8. SM: I’m no geography major, but I don’t think Philadelphia is around the corner from Pauley Pavilion. Not only do the Bruins have to fly across the country to face a trendy upset pick in Virginia Commonwealth, but they would likely face Villanova in the second round. That game would take place nearly 3,000 miles from UCLA’s campus, and about 18 miles from Villanova. UCLA may be the only team who would have rather been placed in Boise. Congratulations to the Bruins on three straight Final Fours – now that’ll be $15 for each checked bag. DZ: Agreed. UCLA has made three straight final fours, has a kickass trombone section and once made Adam Morrison cry. The committee clearly didn’t take any of this into account.

Strongest Pod
Philadelphia – Villanova, American, UCLA, VCU. SM: I don’t want to focus entirely on the lower half of the region – and especially this pod – but there’s no denying the talent at the Wachovia Center. A perennial Final Four contender in UCLA, a possible Final Four team in Villanova, a trendy upset pick in VCU, and … well … American University. Three out of four ain’t bad. The other pods in the East Region include too many first-round walkovers to be taken seriously. And who wants to go to Boise in March, anyway? DZ: Definitely. And American comes into the tourney on a 10-game win streak. Don’t sleep on the Patriot League!

Wild Card, Bitches
Like Charlie, we’re going rogue in our Green Man suits (not really). Here are some other things to watch for over the next three weeks. …

• Easiest Sweet 16 to (Literally) Write Into Your Bracket: ETSU, FSU, UCLA, Duke (there’s Duke screwing up the all-acronym thing again).
• Second-Round Rivalry Game That Will Never Happen: East Tennessee State vs. Tennessee. They’re huge rivals, like Duke-North Carolina. Right?
• Thank Goodness for NCAA Bracketing Rules: Fortunately, the committee won’t pair conference foes against each other in the first round. If they did, we could have had another 5 seed – Illinois – facing No. 12 Wisconsin. What’s the only way to make a Big Ten slugfest less entertaining? Play it in Boise, Idaho.
• Mr. & Mrs. Curry Award for CBS Parental Crowd Shots: Ralph Sampson III, Minnesota. Yes, they’re related. We don’t get to see the wonder and beauty that is Mrs. Curry this year. So we’ll have to deal with endless shots of this draft day trivia answer.
• Year of the Sophomore: With plenty of star sophomores roaming this year’s Dance, we could see a potentially good matchup in the second round pitting Pitt’s Blair against Oklahoma State’s James Anderson.
• Rookie hazing: Of the 43 rookie head coaches this season, five made the tournament and one is in the East Region – Travis Ford of Oklahoma State.
• How the Mighty Have Fallen: East Tennessee State head coach Murray Bartow once coached at UAB, while American head coach Jeff Jones once roamed the sidelines at Virginia.
• Minnesota’s Miracle Man: Not since Gordon Bombay has a sports figure in Minnesota produced more miracles than the Golden Gophers’ Blake Hoffarber. Can he make a third miracle shot this month? Stay tuned.
• All-Name Team: Nikola Dragovic, UCLA; Uche Echefu, Florida State; Larry Sanders, VCU; Moussa Camara, Binghamton; Teeng Akol, Oklahoma State.

So-Called Experts Prediction
Who cares? We’re just happy Dickie V didn’t cry. Or did he?

Vegas Odds to Win Region