1. In yesterday’s Morning 5 we mentioned that Kansas and UNC had very good days as each school retained two players who very easily could have declared for the NBA Draft. Unfortunately, Kansas was not as lucky yesterday as Marcus and Markieff Morris declared for the NBA Draft and signed with an agent. So the Jayhawks will have some holes to start the season on the interior, but most realistic fans expected the Morris twins to be gone since both are most likely lottery picks in the upcoming NBA Draft. Meanwhile, Tar Heel fans are still waiting on a decision from Harrison Barnes. We are still amazed that Barnes, the consensous #1 pick entering the season and still a guaranteed top five pick if he were to come out this season, might come back for his sophomore year, but it appears as if Barnes is still undecided and some mock drafts him entering the NBA after another season in Chapel Hill.
2. In a move that won’t register with most college basketball fans directly but will impact nearly all of their programs indirectly, St. Patrick High coach Kevin Boyle has decided to move from New Jersey down to Florida to take a similar position at Montverde Academy. Boyle, who coached at St. Patrick for 23 years, made the program a national power that finished 2nd in the nation this year. Despite that, Boyle has often had to toil in the rather large shadow of Bob Hurley Sr. who coaches at nearby St. Anthony’s but Boyle was clearly one of the most respected high school coaches in the nation. Judging by the quotes from one of his seniors it appears that there were many in the program who were very unhappy with the decision. In Montverde, Boyle will be taking over a program that is quite succesful even if it is not quite at the level of St. Patrick historically.
3. La Salle sophomore Aaric Murray announced that he would be transferring after a difficult season where he and John Giannini clashed often to the detriment of the team. It is unclear where Murray intends to transfer, but there will be no shortage of teams interested in the talents of a player who averaged 15.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in the Atlantic 10 last season.
4. Many of us enjoyed Mike Bruesewitz‘s hair this season (you may remember his crazy red mop from Wisconsin games this season), but we won’t be seeing it again for the near future.  His hair is gone for a good cause, as the Badger forward had his head shaved by Jon Leuer on local television to raise money to fight multiple sclerosis. His goal was to raise $3,100 (he wears #31) and has already exceeded that amount by $424 at the time this post was written. We can only hope that he decides on an equally interesting hair style when his hair grows out again.
5. In the wake of UConn‘s historic run through the Big East Tournament then the NCAA Tournament, Andy Glockner compiled a list of the 10 best post-season runs since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. His choice for #1 will probably surprise you and will likely start a healthy debate. We did something similar although a bit more intensive two years ago when we created a fantasy bracket for the same era, but instead of just looking at each team’s post-season we included their regular seasons as well.

Andrew Murawa is an RTC contributor.  When he’s not traveling all night to get to Vegas, Los Angeles, Tucson or Anaheim to cover games in the southwestern quadrant of the country, he’s acting as the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-10 Conferences and writing about whatever strikes his basketball fancy.

When it comes to wrapping up a college basketball season, I have a hard time doing an All-American team, because, for one, it just seems hard to narrow down four and a half months of basketball to just five names (or even ten or 15 if I add a second or third team – although, I’ll probably do that too). Instead, in the interests of recognizing more of the players that filled up my brain this season, what I’ll do here today is take all 37 possible uniform numbers (only digits zero through five are possible uniform numbers in NCAA basketball, to aid referees in calling fouls and the foulers) and pick one player for each jersey number.  Note that I am not always going to pick just the best player here. My own prejudices and likes/dislikes will factor in, plus I want to be able to pick a guy that I will most remember from this season. And, in the case of a tie, a senior will get the nod. So without further ado, here is my list of Players of the Year by uniform number.

A Famous Man Once Said We're All Rooting For Laundry, Ultimately

0 – Jacob Pullen, Sr, Kansas State – As I said before, tie goes to the senior, and in this case, the freshman Jared Sullinger gets beat out by a guy who left his heart on the court in his final game as a Wildcat, scoring 38 amazing points in a loss to Wisconsin in the Third Round of the NCAA Tournament. Pullen goes down in history as the all-time leading scorer in Kansas State history, and his exploits in March will be talked about there for years to come.

00 – Rick Jackson, Sr, Syracuse – As far as the scorekeeper is concerned, there is no difference between 0 and 00, but I see two big zeroes on Jackson’s back, and opponents saw a double-double machine for the majority of the season. He posted 17 double-dips on the season and, despite fading a bit down the stretch, was one of the most improved seniors in the country this year.

1 – Kyrie Irving, Fr, Duke – Irving’s college career is complete as he declared for the NBA Draft on Wednesday.  You won’t find his name on any all-timer lists in Durham, as he played just 11 games in his time as a Blue Devil due to a toe injury. When he was on the court, however, he was among the handful of the best players in the nation, with quickness, awareness and maturity rarely seen among freshmen.

2 – Nolan Smith, Sr, Duke – His college career ended with one of the worst games of his career, but for huge swaths of this season, Smith was in the conversation for National Player of the Year. He took over the point guard role when Irving went down with his injury and did a fantastic job of balancing his team’s need for a creator with its need for Smith to score.

3 – Jeremy Lamb, Fr, Connecticut – Jim Calhoun’s precocious freshman earned this honor almost entirely in March. Sure, he had a streak of eight-straight double-digit scoring games in January and early February, but in March, Lamb took his game to a new level and became a consistent second option to Kemba Walker. From the start of the Big East Tournament straight through to the National Championship game, Lamb never failed to score in double figures and averaged 15.3 points per game over that stretch.

4 – Jackson Emery, Sr, BYU – Aaron Craft almost got the nod here, but once again we’ll give the upperclassman the benefit of the doubt. And make no mistake, Emery is very deserving on his own merits, regardless of class, averaging 12.5 points and 2.7 steals per game as Jimmer Fredette’s sidekick in the Cougars’ playmaking backcourt. Emery goes down in history as the career steals leader at BYU.

5 – Kendall Marshall, Fr, North Carolina – I’m not sure Marshall is the best player in the country wearing a single five on his back, but he was likely the most important one – and the biggest story at that. He took over the starting point guard position in Chapel Hill in mid-January and led the Tar Heels to a 17-3 record from there, averaging 7.7 often spectacular assists per game and kick-starting much-heralded freshman wing Harrison Barnes along the way.

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In a Shocker of Shakas, Smart Directed His Team to the F4

Continuing on: there is not a single analytic, logical or evidence-based approach that would have predicted VCU in the Final Four. Let’s be perfectly clear about this. In basketball analytics, most systems aim to predict likely future performance based on past performance and from that data calculate the most likely outcome. VCU in the Final Four was not a likely outcome by anyone’s reckoning. Sure, a few brackets had VCU in the Final Four, but that wasn’t because of rigorous analysis of match-ups or quantum wavelength formulas that are beyond us. Anyone who put VCU in the Final Four knew that it was an unlikely outcome. Maybe they put the Rams in because they were alums. Maybe their aunt lives in Richmond. Maybe they just think Shaka Smart is a handsome man (he is!). Maybe they picked the Rams because they knew few people would. All of these people who did actually pick VCU knew that it was a longshot as opposed to something that would probably happen.

This is smart. This is how you make brackets. Remember this. When there are thousands of different possible permutations, the most likely outcome is still pretty unlikely. An all-chalk bracket seems much more likely than any number of brackets in recent years, but it has still never happened. Hell, we’ve only had one year of all four number one seeds making the Final Four.  On a gut level do you feel that there is a significant difference between 1,000,000-to-1 odds and 1,500,000-1 odds? At the level of the infinitesimally unlikely, even big differences don’t seem to matter that much. I say this not as anti-mathematical nihilism, but to bring a sense of perspective to unlikely events. So here’s what I’m saying: when the most likely outcome is still incredibly unlikely to turn up, how surprising is it when something extremely unlikely happens? There is a real math answer if we gave these outcomes values, but the important answer, the one that we feel in our gut is that, no, it’s not really any more surprising than the other infinite variations of weirdness that the tournament spits at us every March.

Every bracket is a longshot prediction at a perfect bracket, which is such a rare and magnificent beast that not a single one was spotted this year (or any year, for that matter). In the ESPN bracket challenge, only two submissions out of 9.5 million even got the Final Four right. Long odds to get the bracket right, but of course, the odds that the teams themselves faced were not insignificant. Far smarter minds than mine have looked at the unlikeliness of the overall composition of this Final Four, the incredible journey of VCU to the Final Four, and the surprise of Butler in two back-to-back Championship Games; and while the supposed rarity and oddity of each of these accomplishments is interesting, it’s important not to lose sight of the big picture question: How did all these supposedly unlikely things happen and no one see any of them coming?

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We realize that Jim Calhoun hasn’t decided to retire yet and there is still a pretty good chance that he will come back for at least one more season given his frequently stated desire to always look for a fight. Still we think that it is reasonable to suggest that even if he doesn’t retire during this off-season he will be retiring in the near future given his age (he will turn 69 in May) and well-documented medical history. So we ask the question that has been on the minds of many journalists during the past few days: where does he rank historically?

Calhoun already has quite a legacy

By almost any measure (ignoring the opinions of some rival fans) Calhoun would be considered a top 10 coach all-time putting him into a category that includes such luminaries as John Wooden, Mike Krzyzewski, Dean Smith, Adolph Rupp, Bob Knight, Phog Allen, and others. That much is obvious, but once you get into that group the measures used to differentiate those coaches gets more subtle. Certainly a coach would need to have longevity and a consistent record of putting winning teams on the floor, which could be measured by the career wins. A good bar to set there would probably be 600 wins. If you want to argue for a higher standard be careful because the legendary John Wooden “only” had 664 career wins, a number that many current number-crunching analysts would deem paltry compared to others in this group. Winning championships is certainly important, but as this season clearly demonstrated it doesn’t necessarily reflect having the best team, which Northern Arizona coach Mike Adrus indicated with his vote in the final coaches’ poll. Still at some point that is what the sport boils down to. When we look back at this season we will remember UConn’s tournament run more than Pittsburgh‘s excellent regular season. Setting the bar at 2 NCAA titles narrows the group down to 13, but includes individuals like Billy Donovan, who picked up his championships in back-to-back years, and would have a hard time making a list of top 10 active coaches much less top 10 all-time. It also leaves much to be desired when you consider that highly successful coaches like Jim Boeheim and John Thompson only have one championship each despite having a much bigger historical impact on college basketball than Donovan (at least to this point). The next factor would probably be a coach’s impact on the program and the game, which is a more nebulous concept and consequently impossible  to quantify. Still all other things being equal you would probably have to give the nod to someone who turned a program from an also-ran into a national power over someone who took over at a traditional power and continued to win even if that coach did bring the program up a notch or two. Others have undertaken the endeavor of trying  to rank coaches in order with The Sporting News being the most notable among them, but that isn’t our objective (at least not for today). Instead we will focus on Calhoun, his legacy, and his place in the history of the game.

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1. Most of the news around college basketball yesterday was about players putting their names into the NBA Draft. Some were expected like Kyrie Irving while others were a bit more surprising like Scotty Hopson. Two teams–UNC and Kansas–appear to have done rather well yesterday as each saw a pair of players (John Henson and Tyler Zeller for UNC and Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson for Kansas) who many felt might put their names into the NBA Draft decide to stay in school for at least one more year. Both programs are still waiting for other players to announce their intentions, but should be on the short list of favorites to cut down the nets in New Orleans next April.
2. Last week we mentioned the interest shown by Oklahoma in BYU coach Dave Rose although the Sooners subsequently signed UNLV coach Lon Krueger. It looks like the BYU administration took note as they signed Rose to a 5-year extension, which is an unusually long contract at the school for a basketball coach. BYU will not be the power it was this season in the near future, but it is seems like they are making basketball a priority and are trying to remain competitive in the post-Jimmer world.
3. Yesterday, we expressed shock at the fact that Miami had not contacted Kansas State coach Frank Martin about becoming their head coach. As The Miami Herald notes money may be the reason they have not contacted Martin or Alabama coach Anthony Grant. The two coaches earn $1.55 and $1.8 million per year respectively, which is significantly above what Frank Haith made while he was there ($1 million per year). Miami has a history of low-ball offers for football coaches so we would be surprised if they broke the bank to get a basketball coach even he could turn around the program.
4. You already saw our Way Too Early Top 25 and you will be seeing a many other similar rankings online in the next few weeks. Luke Winn and Jeff Goodman recently put out their pre-preseason rankings which are worth checking out to get a gauge on some lesser-known teams that you should keep an eye on for next season. Of course, you should realize that these are moving targets as players will be going in and out of the NBA Draft everyday so expect to see a lot of changes in the next month or two.
5. Finally, you certainly remember Karen Sypher, the women convicted of trying to extort Louisville coach Rick Pitino after his very brief encounter with her. Yesterday she reported to prison in Florida, but her attorneys reportedly plan on filing appeals on her behalf so this probably will not be the last we hear of her.

1. It looks like the offseason just got a little more interesting as Debbie Yow decided to use NC State‘s press conference announcing its hiring of Mark Gottfried to lash out at Gary Williams, whom she blamed for spreading rumors that she was difficult to work with and made the coaching search more difficult. Williams issued a statement essentially he had nothing to do with the NC State coaching search or any of the difficulties they may have had. For those of you who may not be as familiar with the frosty relationship between the two, it dates back to Yow’s time at Maryland and is described in this post, but goes back further. Honestly, it is probably worth another post that we will do in the near future if Yow and Williams manage to keep this in the news for a couple more days. By the way, it was nice of Yow to keep the focus on Gottfried and the basketball team instead of making this about her.
2. If there was one thing this offseason that was more shocking than Missouri hiring Frank Haith and NC State hiring Gottfried (with the ensuing Yow-Williams circus) it was the news that Miami apparently hasn’t even contacted Frank Martin about becoming their next head coach. Here’s one of the premier coaches in the country who happens to have strong connections to the area where they’re located and could absolutely dominate recruiting within a 100-mile radius of the school and they have an opening, but Miami doesn’t even contact him?!? Miami has always been a football school (ok, the fans can be a little fair-weather), but Martin could actually make basketball matter in the area and he wouldn’t have huge, unrealistic expectations on him. It seems like the perfect fit, so the ball is in Miami’s court and they need to make a move fast.
3. Meanwhile, Kansas fans are getting worked up over the report by Bill Self that freshman guard Josh Selby was working out in Las Vegas trying to gauge his draft status. You may remember Selby as the hyped guard who was suspended by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits before becoming eligible again and having a huge opening game against USC that had everybody thinking that he might be the next big thing before flaming out and only playing sparingly in the last month and a half of the season. Selby has the talent to be taken in the first round, but for both his sake and that of Kansas fans we hope he returns and develops some consistency before he heads to the NBA.
4. Illinois fans have no such hope for Jereme Richmond, who announced that he was leaving the school and exploring his NBA Draft status. Richmond has not hired an agent so he could return to college basketball and, although the article doesn’t explicitly state it, we are assuming that he is not planning on returning to the Illini even if he were to return to college.
5. Finally, reviews of TV ratings for the championship game were mixed. While the ratings were among the highest since 2005, they were lower than last year’s championship game (featuring Duke, which always moves the needle). Ratings for the NCAA Tournament were solid when you looked at all four networks and even better when you considered the online viewers. Obviously the shooting from the championship game hurt as did the lack of a marquee name (sorry, UConn, but you still don’t qualify). We can’t help but think that the NCAA should move up the start of the game by an hour to keep East Coast viewers in play even if it means not having the West Coast for the first few minutes of the game.

The 2010-11 season just concluded — we are just as sad as you guys are — but rather than get all nostalgic, teary-eyed, and lament the next  seven months without college basketball, let’s look towards the future. That’s right, folks, hot off the presses: the first 2011-12 Top 25. Our assumptions on who is staying/leaving are within the team breakdowns.

1. North Carolina—The Heels have a whole lot coming back and lose next to nothing. Harrison Barnes looked like the stud he was advertised in the preseason as he developed into Carolina’s top player down the stretch, and Kendall Marshall flourished at the point guard position once he was given the keys to the car. It sure doesn’t hurt that a couple McDonald’s All-Americans will be joining the program next year, either. Look for Roy Williams to be significantly happier next season than he was for much of this season.
   

   Roy Williams should be in a good mood next season

2. Syracuse—Jim Boeheim’s squad returns virtually all the pieces to the puzzle — a puzzle that certainly went unfinished this year — and the Orange look like they may be the top dog in the Big East next season. Scoop Jardine has the ability to be one of the top guards in the BE and Kris Joseph is a very explosive scorer, who should continue to develop in the offseason. The development of Fab Melo is an absolute must in the offseason, though, if this team wants to reach its potential.
3. Kentucky—With the instability of the NBA next year, the Wildcats may be fortunate enough to hang onto their young stars for at least another season. Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones are all NBA talents and all three of them could enter the NBA Draft, but if even one of them returns, this team will be very dangerous, particularly with the class that John Calipari is bringing in, which might be one of the best assembled in the past ten years. If two of those three return to play with that class, this team immediately becomes the favorite to cut down the nets next April.
4. Ohio State—Will he stay or will he go? Obviously, we are referring to Jared Sullinger’s decision to remain a Buckeye for another year. While graduation will claim Jon Diebler and David Lighty, there is still ample talent returning to help the Buckeyes take care of some unfinished business. William Buford could be the X-factor that determines just how good the Buckeyes will be.
5. Louisville—The coaching prowess of Rick Pitino and his most important assistant Ralph Willard was a thing of beauty this year. Not much was expected out of the Cardinals, but the ‘Ville had an exceptional season up until their Tournament collapse to Morehead State. Loftier goals will be set for Louisville next year with Preston Knowles the only player departing. The Cardinals might not have quite as publicized a recruiting class as their in-state rivals, but still have one of the top incoming classes in America. Read the rest of this entry »

The coaching carousel is really gaining momentum now that the season has ended, and Mark Gottfried has decided to turn in his ESPN mic-plates for North Carolina State colors.

Gottfried Takes On the NCSU Coaching Job -- And a Whooooole Lot Of Headaches

Ending a long and frustrating coaching search, the Wolfpack announced the hiring of Gottfried within the last hour. Gottfried’s last gig was at Alabama, where he coached for ten seasons and part of an eleventh (1998-2009). He posted a 210-132 (0.614) overall record and an 84-83 record in SEC play as leader of the Crimson Tide, taking his team to the NCAA Tournament for five straight seasons from 2001-02 to 2005-06. His 2003-04 team made the Elite Eight before losing to the eventual champion Connecticut Huskies. Gottfried left in January of the 2009 season after star guard Ronald Steele decided to jump ship, and hasn’t coached since.

Before his time at Alabama, he coached three seasons at Murray State from 1995 to 1998, taking the OVC crown all three years, and making NCAA Tournaments in his last two seasons there. He was 68-24 (40-12) at MSU. Gottfried also won a  national championship in 1995 in his last of seven seasons at UCLA as an assistant under Jim Harrick.

The initial reaction to this hire appears to be to compare it to St. John’s’ taking on Steve Lavin last year, since, like Lavin before him, Gottfried most recently worked as a color commentator and studio analyst as part of ESPN’s college basketball coverage. To us, though, the hiring of Gottfried in Raleigh is more a product of how many coaches at smaller programs — for example, guys like VCU’s Shaka Smart and Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall, two targets of the NC State search — are choosing to live by the Valvano Doctrine of “don’t mess with happiness” and stay at programs at which they’re already successful, as well as hoping that they can mimic Brad Stevens‘ recent successes at Butler. With what Stevens and his Bulldogs have achieved in the last two years, if you’re a coach at a mid-major program, it makes staying at your smaller school a lot more attractive of an option than, say, the prospect of going up against Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski at least four times a year on the court and fighting them for local stud recruits off of it. What also can’t be ignored is the reluctance that some coaches may have had to work with NC State athletic director Debbie Yow, whose stormy relationship at Maryland with coach Gary Williams was well-publicized.

While most of the media’s attention was directed at NC State‘s curious decision to hire former Alabama head coach Mark Gottfried another school was making a significant hire. Lamar will likely never command the same attention that an ACC school like NC State does, but the Cardinals appear to be set to announce that former Texas Tech coach Pat Knight will be their next coach in a press conference this afternoon. Although much of Knight’s reputation comes from his much more successful father (do we even have to name him?), the addition of a coach who has experience at the Big 12 level is a significant pick-up for a team in the Southland Conference.

Knight took over the reins at Texas Tech during the 2007-08 season when his father abruptly retired. The Red Raiders struggled to a 4-7 finish that season, but did show some signs of life including an 84-75 win over 22nd-ranked Kansas State in Knight’s third game as head coach and an 83-80 win over 5th-ranked Texas a few games later. Unfortunately for Knight the highlights in Lubbock were few and far between. In his three full seasons at Texas Tech he only finished with a winning record once (19-16 in the 2009-10 season when he made his only postseason apperance winning one game in the NIT before bowing out in the quarterfinals) and compiling a record of 50-61 overall and 16-42 in the Big 12 never finishing higher than 9th (he did finish 7th in the season he partially coached).

As for Lamar the school does have some basketball tradition having won the Southland several times (most recently in 2008), but the team finished 13-17 last year and just 7-9 in conference (tied for second to last). The team does return some firepower in Mike James (12.5 PPG, but with 52 in a game against Louisiana) and Anthony Miles (11.9 PPG with a more consistent scoring pattern than James) as both will be seniors next season. The question is whether Knight can turn around this program with significantly lower expectations than he had in Lubbock and help resurrect his career. The issues of location (let’s be honest Lubbock isn’t the most desirable location for most players) shouldn’t be as much of a disadvantage in the Southland Conference where Beaumont, Texas won’t be as relatively unattractive and Knight will not have more traditional powers competing for the same players as he has. Knight will probably get several more attempts as a head coach even if he fails here because that is just the way that athletic directors work (safer to hire a failed coach than to hire someone who hasn’t failed), but if he wants to build his own legacy apart from his father

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-10 conferences. We will be publishing a series of conference report cards over the next week for conferences that got multiple NCAA bids to recap the conference, grade the teams, and look at the future for the conference.

Conference Recap: It was a banner year for the Mountain West despite the turbulence of the offseason that will see two of the standard-bearers of the conference (Utah and BYU) leave for arguably greener pastures this summer with TCU following them out the door the following summer. The two teams leading the conference this season, BYU and San Diego State, posted a combined 66-8 record this year and were constants in the national top ten making the Sweet 16 before bowing out in tight contests. In addition to having two of the country’s top teams the conference also had arguably the nation’s top player in BYU’s Jimmer Fredette, who led the country in scoring, regularly producing eye-popping, shake-your-head-in-disbelief moments and becoming a household name in Utah and beyond. UNLV joined the conference leaders in the NCAA Tournament, but tripped up in ugly fashion before losing head coach Lon Kruger to Oklahoma over the weekend. Colorado State and New Mexico had their hopes pinned on NCAA Tournament bids, but came up a little short. Nevertheless, this was undoubtedly the biggest collection of talent in the history of this conference and likely the high water mark. While there is not a whole lot of love lost between either followers of the conference or executives in the MWC and BYU, there is little doubt that the loss of both of the Utah schools from its ranks will leave a major hole.

It was clearly the year of the Jimmer in the Mountain West

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