Tonight’s Lede. It wasn’t the best night of college basketball we’ve ever witnessed, but as always, the storylines were plentiful. We’d love to walk you through the Michigan-MSU rivalry game that went down to the wire, Florida State’s newfound affinity for offense, Western Carolina’s embarrassing 102-point victory, and some other things… but Anthony Davis just swatted away our train of thought.

Your Watercooler Moment. Michigan-Michigan State Rivalry Heats Up On and Off the Court.

College Basketball Is Better When Both Michigan Schools Are Elite (K. Dozier/DFP)

In anticipation of his rivalry game with Michigan tonight, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo made his feelings known about his in-state rival loud and clear — even though he claims to respect UM and it’s head coach, John Beilein, he also doesn’t care for the Maize and Blue — “not one bit.” He may start to venture into hatred territory if the Wolverines continue beating his Spartans as they did tonight. Michigan point guard Trey Burke led the way with another superb performance, going for 20/4/3 assts/2 stls as the Wolverines defeated MSU for the third straight time in the series. The key to the game, however, was the consistent defensive pressure Michigan put on the Spartans’ primary three scorers: Draymond Green, Keith Appling, and Brandon Wood. The trio came in averaging 38 points per game, but were held to only 21 points on 9-26 shooting tonight. None of the three were ever able to find any sort of offensive rhythm, and when on the final possession Green ended up with the ball in his hands for a leaning jumper from the foul line, the shot was badly long with virtually no chance to drop in. With the win, Michigan moves to 5-2 in the Big Ten race while Michigan State drops to 4-2, but we’re high on both of these teams for the long run of the season and playing into March.

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Evan Jacoby is an RTC contributor and correspondent. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. Night Line will run on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s slate of games.

If Michigan wanted to stay alive in the Big Ten conference title race, Tuesday night’s home game against in-state rival and top 10-ranked Michigan State was a must-win. The Wolverines came away with a one-point victory in a nailbiter thanks to another strong performance from their leader – Trey Burke. It’s not a typo or an overstatement to say that the Wolverines’ freshman point guard has already turned into their go-to guy and overall best player this season. The Wolverines have gone uncharacteristically cold from three-point range and talented guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. has not been the expected consistent star player this year, but Burke’s heady play at the lead guard spot has helped Michigan remain a threat in the Big Ten race.

John Beilein is Pleased with his Freshman Point Guard's Development (AP Photo)

While improving to 5-2 in the Big Ten and 15-4 overall with Tuesday’s win, the Wolverines experienced the same troubles that they’ve been having in conference play, but it was again the strong play of the freshman Burke that carried the team to victory. Michigan, shooting 29.5% from deep in Big Ten action, shot 6-21 from three and Hardaway, Jr., scored only 10 points on 3-9 shooting without contributing much else to the game. But Burke had a game-high 20 points on 8-11 shooting with four rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks, and made nearly all the key plays down the stretch of a tight game. Coming off a bad 16-point loss to Iowa, Michigan needed this win and now sits tied for second in the conference standings.

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Evan Jacoby is an RTC contributor & correspondent. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. TT4 will cover four selected teams of interest – Syracuse, Indiana, Murray State, and UNLV – by tracking their ups, downs, and exciting developments throughout the course of the season.

In this second full edition of TT4, two of our teams have taken a step backward while the other two continue to roll along as the only unbeaten teams remaining in the country. Do Murray State and Syracuse both have a good chance to go undefeated in the regular season? All four of our teams remain ranked in the Top 20 of the major polls. Let’s take a look at the juxtaposition between the two pairs of teams that are making headlines for different reasons:

Murray State Racers

Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole are Running Full Speed Ahead for Undefeated Murray State (AP Photo/L. Dennee)

• Trending UP Because… – They’re still without injured starting forward Ivan Aska, who has a broken hand, and the Racers continue to take care of business. MSU (18-0, 6-0 Ohio Valley) remained undefeated after knocking off Jacksonville State and Tennessee Tech at home over the past week. The Racers’ unbeaten start extends the school record to open a season, and improving to 18-0 also set the school record for longest win streak overall at any point.
• This Week’s Key Cog – Donte Poole. The senior guard has been the perfect complement to Isaiah Canaan all season, but it was Poole who did the heavy lifting this week. He averaged 24.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 steals in two games last week, including a career-high 28 points versus Tennessee Tech, to propel his team to those victories. The prolific three-point shooter was more aggressive attacking the basket, getting to the line a total of 23 times in the two games, converting 21 of those shots.
• Play of the Week – Twenty-five seconds into this video clip, watch star guard Canaan split defenders on a high pick-and-roll before a crafty finish at the rim. The announcer pronounces his name wrong, so just let the highlight do the talking.
• Talking Point – Steve Prohm on improving to 18-0 despite missing their best forward: “Credit our guys’ resiliency. We’re having to play a lot of different ways and we’re just trying to figure things out and they’re doing things on the fly and making adjustments and I couldn’t be prouder of them.“
• Best Read – ESPN’s Dana O’Neil sat down with coach Steve Prohm for an interview Tuesday that discussed how the first-year coach has dealt with success, amongst other issues.
• Stats Central – According to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, the only currently ranked teams that played a more challenging non-conference schedule than Murray State were Duke, Kansas, and Gonzaga. The Racers were actually picked to finish third this season in the OVC by conference coaches in the preseason poll, behind Austin Peay and Tennessee Tech. Those two teams now don’t have as many wins combined (17) as the Racers currently do on the season.
• What’s Next? – MSU has two road games this week against conference foes dreaming of ending a perfect season. First is a test at Morehead State on Wednesday (7:00 PM ET) against the defending champions of the OVC. Morehead, 3-3 in conference play thus far, is a tough team whose five best players are all upperclassmen. The Racers then head to play at SIU-Edwardsville against a Cougars team that is also 3-3 in conference. Murray will look to continue their undefeated streak again without their best big man as Aska has been ruled out for these games.

Syracuse Orange

• Trending EVEN Because… – Already at the top of nearly every poll and rating, there’s not much higher to go. Syracuse remained undefeated and improved to 20-0 (7-0 Big East) after beating the three teams at the bottom of the Big East conference last week. The Orange handled their toughest task at Villanova last Wednesday without a problem, and it’s been weeks since SU played a game in which the outcome was ever in doubt after the first 10 minutes. Fast starts are becoming a staple of this team, and it holds leads easily with the most talented bench in the nation. Jim Boeheim’s team is beating Big East opponents by an average of 15.7 points per game, although five of their seven games have come against the bottom four teams in the conference.

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC columnist. His Love/Hate column will publish on Mondays throughout the season. In this weekly piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED….Michael Kidd-Gilchrist’s momentum changing alley-oop against Tennessee. My favorite plays are those ones where in a second, the whole mood of a chaotic gym suddenly changes. The combination of floating from one side of the hoop to the other (hang time we can only dream of) and the emphatic CRACK of the rim snapping took UT’s good vibes and threw them for a complete 180. If there’s one thing I love about the modern game, it’s the microphone near the rims – they make monster slams even better (watch at the 0:40 mark).

I LOVED….Baylor keeping me wondering whether they’re for real. Coming into this week, I looked at their schedule and thought, well, they still haven’t played anyone stellar. And yet, even after last night’s tough loss in Allen Fieldhouse — a place where nobody can reasonably expect to win — it’s getting harder and harder to find too much to fault with these Bears. This weekend’s upcoming game in Waco against Missouri will help me figure this team out.

I LOVED….Syracuse continuing to shrug off the scandal surrounding the program and keep pace at No. 1. It’s tough to focus on playing when your coach and the university are under so much scrutiny, but this mess was not brought on by these kids – who have worked hard to put themselves in prime position for a postseason run. Let’s hope that they continue to tune out the other stuff.

I LOVED….feeling the upset-happy “This is College Basketball” vibe for the first time this year on Saturday. North Carolina turned the world upside down by getting trounced, Northwestern shocked the hottest team in the country, Iowa upended Michigan, Oklahoma took out KSU….this is the chaos I know and love.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Their is only one match-up of Top 25 opponents tonight.  The Battle for Michigan went to the Wolverines last season.  Let’s take a look at who has the advantage this season.

John Beilein and the Wolverines need a big win against their in-state rivals tonight

#9 Michigan State at #16 Michigan – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Michigan State lost both games to its in-state rival last season in a down year for Tom Izzo and company. This season, the Spartans bring a team into Ann Arbor that ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kentucky are the only other schools that rank in the top ten in both categories in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Is that our Final Four come March? Possibly, but right now the Spartans have to pick themselves up from a loss to Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats posted an eFG of 57.7% against a tough Spartan defense thanks to strong shooting from beyond the arc. It was Michigan State’s worst field goal defense of the season. Prior to the loss on Saturday though, Michigan State had won 15 straight games thanks to solid shooting and fantastic offensive rebounding. While Michigan State has slipped a bit on defense in the conference season, their offensive numbers are getting better. They have improved significantly from the three-point line, increasing their shooting percentage from 36% to 42%. With the Wolverines giving up 41.1% from downtown in conference play thus far, this is an area to keep an eye on throughout the game. Solid three-point shooting and great offensive rebounding is a difficult combination to beat.
• Michigan is in need of a good win. Their last four games consist of a loss at Indiana, a home win against a Wisconsin team in the midst of a three-game losing streak, an overtime win at home against Northwestern, and a blow out loss against Iowa on the road. The Wolverines have seen a significant drop-off in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. Their three-point shooting percentage has dipped below 30% against conference opponents. To compound the season long ineffectiveness beyond the arc, Michigan is actually shooting more threes in Big Ten play than in the non-conference season. Three-pointers make up 44.1% of Michigan’s field goal attempts in six Big Ten games. Even more alarming is the significant drop in two-point shooting. Michigan is only hitting 48.9% of its two-point attempts against the stronger defenses in the Big Ten. Establishing Jordan Morgan on the inside may be the answer to Michigan’s shooting issues. Morgan is third on the team in two-point attempts and is hitting approximately 65% of his shots. Going down low to Morgan early may open up the perimeter to give Michigan better looks.
• A key match-up in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive rebounding versus Michigan’s defensive rebounding. If the Spartans are able to own the offensive glass, it will put a lot of pressure on the Michigan offense to hit shots since the Wolverines are not good on the offensive boards. Second chance points always beats empty possessions. Given their current shooting slump, it’s tough to foresee Michigan breaking out against a strong Michigan defense. Then again, it’s a rivalry game and anything can happen.

1. The people over at Basketball Prospectus do some interesting statistical analysis and the latest project by Drew Cannon appears to be no different. Cannon is borrowing on the work of several others most notably the Marquette blog Cracked Sidewalks to build on a Value Add statistic for college basketball players. Cannon explains the basic statistical analysis in his post yesterday. Some people may get scared away by the use of variables and equations, but it is a rather simple analysis (the regressions involved in calculating the constants are a bit more complex). Cannon promises to release his Value Add rankings, which are only for offensive production, later in the day so be on the look out for it and we will be sure to link to it tomorrow with our thoughts on the results.
2. It is Tuesday so you know that means another edition of Hoop Thoughts from Seth Davis. Technically it comes out on Monday afternoon, but that’s too late to make our Monday M5. This week Seth takes a look at 10 bubble teams who helped themselves and 10 bubble teams who hurt themselves with their non-conference schedules. If you are a neutral observer and have been following closely the 20 teams he selected should not be a surprise, but if you are a fan of a bubble team and maybe be a little delusional (and all fans are to some extent) it could be a sobering reminder that your team has quite a bit of work cut out for them.
3. In an attempt to prevent another massive Nevin Shapiro-like scandal from occurring Miami has announced that its boosters would no longer be allowed to entertain student-athletes. For those of you who weren’t highly recruited athletes coming out of college, the NCAA allows “an occasional meal from a representative of athletics interests on infrequent and special occasions”, but this goes much further. As you would expect some current Miami boosters are not thrilled by the decision and expect it to have a negative influence on donations. For a program that already suffers from an apathetic fan base, this decision could further hinder any hopes of rebuilding the program into an athletic powerhouse.
4. Last week during a blowout loss at Michigan State, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery picked up a technical and responded by slamming a chair down on the court. Afterwards, the Big Ten was critical of McCaffery’s actions, but did not punish him and did not ask him to apologize. Instead, they simply hoped that he would not do something similar in the future. Yesterday, the athletic director at Iowa said that McCaffery’s actions had crossed a line, but again declined to punish McCaffery or seek any form of apology. For his part, McCaffery does not seem to be the least bit remorseful so don’t be surprised if we see this sort of juvenile behavior from him in the future.
5. Just when you thought the drama surrounding North Carolina‘s retreat from the court on Saturday was over, Roy Williams dropped this little gem during a local radio show: he meant to take his entire team off the court for the final 14.2 seconds of its 33-point loss at Florida State. Roy apologized to the five players who remained on the court saying his intent was to get everybody off the floor. While it is noble of Roy to defend the group, which included three walk-ons who so bravely risked their lives for the honor of their school, it does raise the question as to whether he intended to forfeit the game, which is what he would have been doing if he had taken everybody off the court.

More MLK basketball from the Big East is in store for us this evening. The nation’s top-ranked Syracuse Orange hosts visiting Pittsburgh in the Carrier Dome — can Pitt save its season with a statement win before it gets too late?

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As part of our continuing coverage to show you how idiotic the college football BCS system is and hopefully point out some of the differences between the human and computer college basketball rankings we are releasing our world famous RTC BCS Poll yet again. For details on how this works, check out our previous post on the topic where we discuss the methodology and Week 1 rankings. Analysis and BCS match-ups after the jump.

Click to enlarge

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In the history of college basketball, Gonzaga’s string of 11 straight conference titles is second only to UCLA’s streak of 13 straight Pac-8 titles during the heyday and immediate aftermath of the Wooden era. Gonzaga, a small Jesuit school in Spokane, Washington, with an undergraduate enrollment of less than 5,000 students and no real history of basketball success prior to its first NCAA Tournament in 1995, has put itself into the same paragraph as one of the most dominant teams in sports history, even if the Bulldogs are playing on a different level than the Bruins were.

However, there is no doubt that recently Gonzaga’s dominance in the West Coast Conference has been challenged. Saint Mary’s has emerged as the conference’s most serious contender to the Zags’ throne, twice in three years finishing just a game back in the conference. And last year, with just three conference games remaining and SMC holding a two-game lead, the Zags saw the Gaels somehow lose to San Diego (a 6-24, last-place WCC team) and then knocked off Saint Mary’s in their head-to-head matchup to salvage a tie for the regular season title. It’s been creeping closer and closer, but could this finally be the year where Gonzaga fails to win the WCC? After losing by 21 points at Saint Mary’s on Thursday night, it is certainly a possibility.

Gonzaga Has Been Dominant In The WCC, But They'll Need Robert Sacre's Best To Win The Title This Season (photo credit: Associated Press)

Saturday, the Zags got back on track by heading to Los Angeles and squeaking out a road victory over Loyola Marymount, using a second-half opening 17-4 run predicated on eight forced turnovers to erase a two-point halftime deficit. But they had to hold on as the Lions fought back and turned it into a one-possession game for much of the final five minutes. Toughness has been a question mark for the Zags with junior forward Elias Harris even calling out his team for being outhustled and outcompeted by the Gaels, but on Saturday the Zags won down the stretch with toughness, hustling to loose balls and playing smart and hard-nosed defense. “In a game like this, it is about toughness,” said head coach Mark Few. “I thought we strung together some nice stops and got a little more confidence in our defense.”

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In most years there is a great deal of variance in the polls during the non-conference portion of the season as teams are either overachieving or underachieving relative to their preseason rankings. However, last week proved how even in conference action there can be tremendous movement within the poll. Syracuse and Kentucky remain at #1 and #2, respectively, but there is a lot of shuffling after that, especially involving several teams out west making a surge into the Top 25. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

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