Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Northwestern, Miami, BYU.
• First Four Out: South Florida, Colorado State, Dayton, Oregon.
• Next Four Out: Arizona, VCU, Illinois, UCF.

Click on bracket to enlarge and check out my latest bubble watch update here.

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke
• 2 Seeds: Michigan State, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown
• 4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Wichita State
• 5 Seeds: Florida, Florida State, UNLV, Notre Dame
• 6 Seeds: Temple, Vanderbilt, Murray State, Creighton
• 7 Seeds: San Diego State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s
• 8 Seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, Virginia
• 9 Seeds: Memphis, Alabama, Southern Miss, Cincinnati
• 10 Seeds: California, Saint Louis, Connecticut, West Virginia
• 11 Seeds: Long Beach State, Mississippi State, Washington, Harvard
• 12 Seeds: Seton Hall, Xavier, Texas, BYU, Miami
• 13 Seeds: Northwestern, St. Joseph’s, Oral Roberts, Iona, Drexel
• 14 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Akron, Davidson
• 15 Seeds: Belmont, Valparaiso, Weber State, UT-Arlington
• 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, Bucknell, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

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Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

• Last Four In: NC State, Northwestern, Texas, Washington
• First Four Out: South Florida, Oregon, Arizona, Dayton
• Next Four Out: Miami, LSU, UCF, Massachusetts

(bold indicates auto bid, italics indicates a bubble team)

1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State

2 Seeds: Missouri, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Michigan, Marquette, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Florida, Indiana

5 Seeds: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Temple, Wichita State

6 Seeds: UNLV, Murray State, Vanderbilt, New Mexico

7 Seeds: Creighton, Kansas State, Gonzaga, San Diego State

8 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Virginia, California, Iowa State

9 Seeds: Saint Louis, Memphis, Cincinnati, Harvard

10 Seeds: Connecticut, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Purdue

11 Seeds: Alabama, Southern Miss, Long Beach State, Seton Hall

12 Seeds: BYU, Xavier, Colorado State, Washington, Texas

13 Seeds: Northwestern, NC State, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Akron

14 Seeds: Iona, Drexel, Nevada, Davidson

15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valparaiso, Bucknell

16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, UT-Arlington, UNC-Asheville, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State

• Cincinnati is one of the more difficult teams to seed in recent memory. It really boils down to how much you believe the committee is going to weigh RPI/SOS relative to RPI top-50 wins. I tried to find a happy medium at a #9 seed. The Bearcats computer numbers are appalling (74 RPI, 114 SOS, 319 non-conference SOS) but no teams behind them in today’s S-Curve boast the same abundance of quality wins: at Georgetown, Louisville, at Connecticut, Notre Dame, Seton Hall with a 6-4 true road record and a 10-5 mark in the Big East. That’s an impressive portfolio for a supposed bubble team without even glimpsing at the RPI. One has to believe Cincinnati is in at 11-7.
• Missouri dropping from the third number one seed to the first number two seed after one loss may seem a bit harsh, but it’s more about what Duke and Michigan State have done than what Missouri hasn’t done. Duke and Michigan State played much more rugged non-conference schedules and currently lead their respective leagues. For example, Duke beat Michigan State, Kansas, Michigan, Washington, NC State, Belmont and Davidson along the way, not to mention true road ACC wins at North Carolina and Florida State. Duke may be the most flawed top seed in recent memory, but that shouldn’t alter any objective analysis of their resume to date. Missouri is hampered a bit by a #269 non-conference SOS and fewer quality wins throughout the season than either the Devils or Spartans. That can change with a win at Kansas on Saturday.
• All Oregon and Arizona can do is keep winning and let the dominoes fall as they may. Until a potential Pac-12 tournament meeting with either Cal or Washington, there’s no opportunity for even anything resembling a quality win remaining on the schedule. The Ducks visit rival Oregon State before finishing at home with Colorado and Utah while Arizona topped USC last night and end their schedule with UCLA and Arizona State. Playing in the Pac-12 this season limits chances to pick up scalps, especially after squandering nearly all of their marquee non-league games in November and December. Washington’s sweep of Arizona looms mighty large at the moment.
• The opposite is true with South Florida. The Bulls back-loaded schedule brings Cincinnati to Tampa this Sunday. Depending on how other bubble teams fare, USF may move into Monday’s field with a victory. A trip to Louisville and a home date with West Virginia prior to the Big East Tournament present even more opportunities. If Stan Heath’s team can win two games, it would be awfully hard for the committee to leave a 12-6 Big East team out of the field despite non-league losses to Auburn, Penn State and Old Dominion. USF boasts a 48 RPI, 28 SOS and 49 non-conference SOS.

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Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

• Last Four In: NC State, Northwestern, Texas, Miami (FL)
• First Four Out: Arizona, Oregon, South Florida, UCF.

Click on bracket to enlarge.

S-Curve

• 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Missouri, Duke
• 2 Seeds: Michigan State, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio State
• 3 Seeds: Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown, Marquette
• 4 Seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Wisconsin, Florida
• 5 Seeds: Indiana, UNLV, Temple, Wichita State
• 6 Seeds: Murray State, Notre Dame, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
• 7 Seeds: Creighton, San Diego State, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
• 8 Seeds: Virginia, Mississippi State, West Virginia, California
• 9 Seeds: Southern Miss, Saint Louis, Harvard, Iowa State
• 10 Seeds: Kansas State, Connecticut, Alabama, Memphis
• 11 Seeds: Purdue, Long Beach State, BYU, Cincinnati
• 12 Seeds: Xavier, Seton Hall, Miami, Washington, Texas
• 13 Seeds: Northwestern, NC State, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Akron
• 14 Seeds: Iona, Drexel, Nevada, Davidson
• 15 Seeds: Belmont, Weber State, Valparaiso, Bucknell
• 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, UNC-Asheville, UT-Arlington, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

*click on the bracket for a full-screen view

• Last Four In: Arizona, Northwestern, Minnesota, NC State
• First Four Out: Texas, Miami, Colorado State, Colorado
• Next Four Out: Washington, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oregon

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Four In: Mississippi, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, BYU.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, NC State, Marshall, Colorado State.

*click on the bracket for a full-screen view

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

(click on bracket to enlarge)

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.  He will periodically put together his latest bracket projections throughout the season.  Tell him where you agree or disagree @zhayes9 on Twitter.

• Last Four In: Drexel, Illinois, Kansas State, Notre Dame.
• First Four Out: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Oregon, Minnesota.
• Next Four Out: Northwestern, BYU, Princeton, Oklahoma State.

Click to Enlarge Bracket

Notes

• This was the most clear-cut foursome for the top line that I can recall during any previous preseason bracket and all four deserve to be anointed Final Four teams here in October.
• Maybe a bit of a surprise in both instances, but I’m taking Texas A&M and California to win their respective leagues. Maybe their talent level is not up to par with the likes of Kansas and UCLA, but I like their stability, coaching and players like Khris Middleton and Allen Crabbe are primed to explode.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Sunday, 4:10 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Penn State, Michigan.

Last Four In: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia.

First Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Southern California, Boston College, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Kansas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, North Carolina, Connecticut
  
• 3 Seeds: Florida, Texas, Louisville, Kentucky
• 4 Seeds: BYU, Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Xavier
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Missouri, Washington
  
• 8 Seeds: Utah State, Temple, George Mason, Tennessee
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Richmond, Gonzaga
  
• 10 Seeds: Florida State, Marquette, Villanova, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Penn State
• 12 Seeds: Memphis, Michigan, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Georgia
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  
• 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

• Despite Duke’s ACC Tournament title, in a head-to-head resume comparison with either Pittsburgh or Notre Dame, the Big East duo prevails. Two of Duke’s wins over NCAA Tournament teams came with Kyrie Irving. Duke has substantially less RPI top-25 and top-50 wins and their best road victory on the season is Maryland. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame finished 1-2 in the best conference in recent memory. I could see Duke get the final #1 just as they did last year over a Big East team (West Virginia), but if they do it’s the second straight year it’s undeserved.
• Kentucky moves up to a #3 seed with their SEC Tournament win. They’re playing at a very high level and the committee will have noticed, thrashing both Alabama and Florida. The Gators remain as a #3 seed with their commendable body of work.
• Richmond moves up to a #9 seed with their Atlantic 10 Tournament win. No bid stealer today. Georgia is my last team in the field.
• I have a hunch that St. Mary’s will sneak in over one of the ACC or SEC teams, but I can’t include them purely based on a feeling. Frankly, there’s no argument for St. Mary’s over Georgia. The only argument to leave Alabama out is their horrid non-conference. St. Mary’s has one win over the RPI top-50 and it came in November. That doesn’t cut it.
• Kansas is my #1 overall seed. It doesn’t really matter. They’ll go to the San Antonio region while Ohio State goes to Newark regardless.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Saturday, 11:19 PM ET.

First 4 Byes: Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Saint Mary’s.

Last Four In: Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama.

First Four Out: Georgia, Boston College, Southern California, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Texas, North Carolina
  
• 3 Seeds: Florida, Connecticut, Louisville, BYU
• 4 Seeds: Purdue, Syracuse, Kentucky, Wisconsin
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, West Virginia, Arizona, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Georgetown
• 7 Seeds: Xavier, Old Dominion, Missouri, Temple
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, Tennessee, Washington, Utah State
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, UNLV, Gonzaga, Florida State
  
• 10 Seeds: Marquette, Villanova, Richmond, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Michigan State, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan
• 12 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Penn State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Memphis
  
• 13 Seeds: Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Long Island
  
• 15 Seeds: Akron, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s, Boston University
  
• 16 Seeds: UC-Santa Barbara, UNC-Asheville, Hampton, Arkansas Little-Rock, UT-San Antonio, Alabama State

3/12 changes:

• Penn State and Ed DeChellis will go dancing. The Nittany Lions needed to beat both Wisconsin and Purdue/Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament to clinch a bid. They completed both scalps and should go to the tournament in Talor Battle’s senior season.
• Kentucky didn’t help their SEC brethren by thrashing Alabama. If Dayton wins the A-10 Tournament, the Tide are the team to drop out. Richmond also clinched a bid with their semifinal win over Temple, so the conference may end up with four teams in the Dance.
• Washington jumped up two seed lines with their dramatic Pac-10 Tournament victory. The Huskies made up for a lackluster non-conference performance with two wins over both UCLA and Arizona.
• San Diego State flipped with BYU. The Aztecs are now the #6 overall team in the S-Curve while the Cougars will either garner a #3 or #4 seed on Sunday depending on how much the committee downgrades them post-Brandon Davies.
• Florida will earn a #2 seed if they beat Kentucky and win the SEC Tournament tomorrow. Their body of work is tremendous and the Gators will have won both the regular season and tournament titles.
• Connecticut won five games in five days and now will receive a #3 seed at the very minimum. They were a #6 seed heading into the Big East Tournament. Louisville’s defeat of Notre Dame on Friday, close loss to UConn and entire body of work in the historic Big East (7 RPI top-25 wins, five more than Purdue) gives them a slight edge for the final #3 seed.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

UPDATED: Friday, 1:34 AM ET.

First 4 Byes: Richmond, Colorado, Saint Mary’s, Michigan.

Last Four In: Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Penn State.

First Four Out: Georgia, Boston College, Southern California, VCU.

S-Curve (italics indicate automatic bids)

• 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
  
• 2 Seeds: Duke, Texas, BYU, San Diego State
• 3 Seeds: Florida, North Carolina, Louisville, Connecticut
• 4 Seeds: Purdue, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Kentucky
• 5 Seeds: St. John’s, Arizona, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
  
• 6 Seeds: Texas A&M, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Xavier
• 7 Seeds: Georgetown, Old Dominion, Temple, Missouri
  
• 8 Seeds: George Mason, Tennessee, Utah State, UNLV
  
• 9 Seeds: UCLA, Gonzaga, Florida State, Marquette
  
• 10 Seeds: Washington, Villanova, Michigan State, Butler
• 11 Seeds: Illinois, Richmond, Colorado, Saint Mary’s
• 12 Seeds: Michigan, Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Belmont
  
• 13 Seeds: Harvard, UTEP, Oakland, Indiana State
  
• 14 Seeds: Bucknell, Morehead State, Wofford, Kent State
  
• 15 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado, St. Peter’s
  
• 16 Seeds: Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Arkansas Little-Rock, Hampton, Alabama State
  

Note: Full bracket coming Saturday morning, Sunday morning and Sunday just before the Selection Show.

Changes on 3/12 at midnight:

• Notre Dame holds on to the final #1 seed but flips with Pittsburgh, sending the Irish to the Anaheim region. Duke has a chance to pass Notre Dame if they win the ACC Tournament.
• Louisville and Connecticut both move to the #3 seed line by advancing to the Big East Tournament final. Purdue’s second straight loss moves them down to a #4 seed to make way for the Cardinals and Huskies.
• Virginia Tech remains in the field with their dramatic win over Florida State. A loss would have dropped them out.
• Penn State barely edges Georgia for the last spot in the field following their upset of Wisconsin.