Weekly Bracketology: 02.13.11

Posted by zhayes9 on February 13th, 2012

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

*click on the bracket for a full-screen view

  • Last Four In: Arizona, Northwestern, Minnesota, NC State
  • First Four Out: Texas, Miami, Colorado State, Colorado
  • Next Four Out: Washington, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oregon
S-Curve
  • 1 Seeds: Syracuse, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas
  • 2 Seeds: Michigan State, Ohio State, Duke, North Carolina
  • 3 Seeds: Baylor, UNLV, Georgetown, Marquette
  • 4 Seeds: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Louisville
  • 5 Seeds: Florida State, Saint Mary’s, Florida, San Diego State
  • 6 Seeds: Wichita State, Temple, Creighton, Gonzaga
  • 7 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Murray State, Notre Dame, Mississippi State
  • 8 Seeds: Virginia, Iowa State, Southern Miss, Memphis
  • 9 Seeds: Connecticut, West Virginia, Harvard, Purdue
  • 10 Seeds: California, Kansas State, Illinois, New Mexico
  • 11 Seeds: Alabama, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Saint Louis*
  • 12 Seeds: Xavier, BYU, NC State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Arizona
  • 13 Seeds: Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Iona
  • 14 Seeds: Nevada, Davidson, Drexel, Akron
  • 15 Seeds: Valparaiso, Bucknell, Belmont, Weber State
  • 16 Seeds: LIU Brooklyn, UNC-Asheville, UT-Arlington, Norfolk State, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State

* moved to 12 seed due to seeding rules

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, Duke, Missouri, Belmont, Syracuse, Weber State, UNC-Asheville, Long Beach State, Michigan State, Drexel, Southern Miss, Valparaiso, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Norfolk State, Wichita State, UNLV, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, California, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, Texas-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big Ten (9), Big East (9), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (3), West Coast (3), Pac-12 (2), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2).

Notes

  • With Baylor two games back and out of the #1 seed picture, look for Missouri and Kansas to scratch and claw the rest of the season for the St. Louis region. By Selection Sunday I’d anticipate either UNC/Duke or Michigan St/Ohio State to join Syracuse and Kentucky on the top line, leaving a spot for either the Tigers or Jayhawks. The two bitter rivals play for possibly the last time at Allen Fieldhouse and Kansas boasts a better overall resume, but it could very well come down to a meeting at the Big 12 Tournament in KC. Staying at #3 on the S-Curve is also imperative to play in St. Louis rather than Phoenix.
  • The Big Ten currently has nine teams in the field with Northwestern’s wins vs. Michigan State and at Illinois providing just enough cushion to sneak in. I’d anticipate one of Minnesota or Northwestern finding a way into the bracket in a month, but not both. The Gophers still face Ohio State and Michigan State at home, so there’s opportunity to compile quality wins after blowing an overtime game vs. RPI top-25 foe Wisconsin last Thursday.
  • At this point, the bubble is so weak that if a team has one quality win and a mediocre record, they’re probably in the field. Texas is inching closer with wins over Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State all at home. Their home date with Baylor on February 20 is enormous. Miami welcoming North Carolina to town later this week is equally huge.
  • The difference between the last #2 seed — North Carolina — and the first #3 seed — Baylor- – on the S-curve is fairly substantial. The Heels would need to drop two more games to fall a seed line while Baylor’s only real chance to boost their resume before the conference tournament is a home and home with Iowa State. UNLV, Georgetown and Marquette have a ways to go to move up a seed line, as well.
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