Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Locks: Temple, North Carolina, Florida State, Duke, Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Wichita State, Creighton, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Murray State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga.

Tu Holloway stepped up Saturday against Dayton to keep Xavier in the field

Atlantic 10

Saint Louis (22-5, 10-3)- The Billikens tournament hopes could ride on how much the committee factors in their attractive computer numbers (21 RPI, 11 KenPom, 17 Sagarin) and discards a void in the quality win department. Their only decent wins came over bubble teams Xavier (road) and Washington (home) while missed opportunities at New Mexico and home vs. Temple loom large. A 10-3 conference record, stellar RPI and another win over Xavier when the Musketeers return to SLU on February 28 should be sufficient for a bid.

Xavier (17-9, 8-4)- The unpredictable Musketeers stayed on the right side of the bubble by dispatching Dayton in overtime on Saturday and their only opportunity for a resume-building win is the aforementioned meeting with Saint Louis. Avoiding a defeat at Massachusetts on Tuesday is paramount given Xavier’s already questionable losses against Hawaii, La Salle and Oral Roberts when their team was depleted by suspensions. Xavier does have impressive wins at Vanderbilt and home vs. Purdue, but both of those came before December 3. Their #54 RPI and #54 SOS screams bubble team.

ACC

Virginia (20-6, 7-5)- The Cavaliers have long been considered NCAA worthy but their overall portfolio is actually quite lacking. Their only two RPI top-50 wins came over Michigan back in November and a one-point home win over Miami, while regrettable losses to TCU, Clemson and home vs. Virginia Tech loom. The #231 non-conference strength of schedule is another anchor. The remaining schedule isn’t forgiving – revenge game at Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, at Maryland– but on the flip side there are two RPI top-20 scalps coming to Charlottesville. Win just one and Tony Bennett can breathe easier.

NC State (18-9, 7-5)- The Wolfpack just concluded a devastating week, blowing a huge second half lead at Duke and 48 hours later getting blown out of the water at home against Florida State. With only one RPI top-50 win after Texas fell out following their own crushing loss, State is barely our last team in. The only chance for resuscitation is by beating North Carolina at home on Tuesday and finishing off a sweep of Miami on February 29. They also face a tricky road game at Clemson sandwiched in between. The computer numbers (57 RPI, 38 SOS, 29 non-conference SOS) are respectable.

Miami (16-9, 7-5)- At the moment, the Canes are pinning their tournament hopes on that crucial road win against Duke on Super Bowl Sunday because they have absolutely nothing else. Their next best wins by RPI is UMass at home, largely because all their important non-conference games – at West Virginia, at Purdue, Memphis– were played without star center Reggie Johnson. The Canes were also swept by North Carolina, lost at Virginia and Florida State and fell to NC State at home. The Seminoles return date on February 26 is a must win or the resume will be too empty to deserve serious consideration.

Big 12

Iowa State (19-8, 7-5)- The most difficult portion of the Cyclones schedule is yet to come with games at Kansas State, at Missouri and home vs. Baylor to wrap up the regular season. Winning either road game would solidify their bid, but even downing Baylor in Ames would give them home wins over Kansas, Baylor and Kansas State, likely enough to punch a ticket in this bubble climate. Iowa State has average numbers (42 RPI, 35 KenPom, 36 Sagarin) and bad losses at Drake, home vs. Northern Iowa and at Oklahoma State. They beat fellow bubble team Texas 77-71 at home in their only meeting.

Kansas State (18-8, 7-7)- The #59 RPI, #250 non-conference SOS and sweep at the hands of Oklahoma are setbacks, but their overall profile appears solid after Saturday’s enormous win at Baylor coupled with wins vs. Missouri, Texas and in the  non-conference vs. Long Beach State and Alabama. Both KenPom and Sagarin like the Wildcats more than the flawed RPI, ranking Kansas Stateat #25 in the country. Tuesday’s trip to Missouri is basically house money with three winnable games vs. Iowa State, at Texas A&M and vs.Oklahoma State remaining on the Big 12 slate. Take care of business in those three and Frank Martin’s squad is in the field.

Texas (17-10, 7-7)- Tonight’s clash with Baylor in Austin is just as enormous to their tournament chances as Saturday’s bad loss at Oklahoma State. The young Horns don’t stand a chance at Kansas; with Texas Tech and Oklahoma their only other remaining games before the Big 12 Tournament, this is their golden opportunity to stay viable for the selection committee. The losses to Kansas and Missouri by a combined five points loom large. Their best wins to date are all at home vs.Temple, Iowa State and Kansas State. Texas has yet to beat a team in the RPI top 100 on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

*click on the bracket for a full-screen view

• Last Four In: Arizona, Northwestern, Minnesota, NC State
• First Four Out: Texas, Miami, Colorado State, Colorado
• Next Four Out: Washington, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oregon

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Now that football season is finally in the rear view mirror, college basketball has stepped into its rightful place on the national radar. The previous week has brought us a slew of thrilling rivalries, intra-conference showdowns and last-second finishes in the endless pursuit to decipher which teams have the capabilities to make a deep March run. The rigors of conference play, especially in hostile environments facing a despised foe, exposes flaws hidden early in the season by facing inferior opposition. In the last week alone, my perception of a number of top teams has altered drastically. Here are the lessons gleaned from a week of non-stop college basketball viewing:

John Calipari might have his best team in Lexington

A zone defense could be Kentucky’s kryptonite: Containing the Wildcats’ absurd quickness off the dribble, Teague-to-Davis pick-and-roll dunks and overall athleticism is nearly impossible playing straight man defense. Vanderbilt attempted to stay in front of Kentucky’s guards with the pillowy soft man-to-man defense of Brad Tinsley and John Jenkins early in the first half Saturday and failed miserably. Faced with a double-digit deficit, a zone defense combined with hot shooting turned the tide. A zone not only limits ball screening and penetration, but it goads Kentucky into firing up threes, where only Doron Lamb is an elite marksman from deep. Luckily for Calipari and the Cats, neither Mississippi State nor Florida – their two toughest road tests on the docket the remainder of the season – utilizes a zone the majority of the time. A matchup with Syracuse on April 2 would be fascinating.

Ohio State’s perimeter play is a definite concern: Saturday’s unsightly home loss to Michigan State – coupled with Kentucky’s near-invincibility since Christian Watford’s game-winner in December – was the first time I legitimately re-considered my prevailing thought that the Buckeyes would play for a national title April 2 in New Orleans. The Spartans are a top-ten outfit and special on the defensive end, but I’m unconvinced that Ohio State’s guards can provide enough in the scoring column to help the overworked Jared Sullinger in the post. Defenses can go under screens and sag off Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith plays due to his defensive prowess and William Buford’s declining offensive rating and effective FG% back up his inconsistent shooting outputs. If Sullinger runs into another physical frontcourt presence similar to Sparty’s Adreian Payne – or UK’s Josh Harrellson dating back to last year’s Sweet 16 – the Bucks may fall short of their perennially lofty goals.

Tyler Zeller is the best player in the ACC: In the battle of the two best overall players in the conference, Carolina’s Zeller (25 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals) outplayed Virginia’s Mike Scott (18 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals) to take the lead in ACC POY discussions. Zeller’s value to the Heels isn’t limited to the box score; the 7-foot center routinely tops UNC coaching staff’s defensive rankings and is one of the top charge-takers in the nation. His ability to run rim-to-rim and spark Carolina’s patented fast break leads to an abundance of easy baskets and that left shoulder jump hook is often unstoppable. His marvelous first half performance against Duke on Wednesday is easily lost in the shuffle due to end-of-game heroics, but he single-handedly kept Carolina within striking distance with his play on both ends. Scott means more to the Cavs, but Zeller is the best player in the league.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Did you think last year’s NCAA Tournament was chaotic? That was nothing.

That’s right, the tournament that saw two out of eleven Big East teams reach the Sweet Sixteen, #10-seed Florida State face #11-seed VCU in a regional semifinal and two mid-majors provide the undercard on Final Four Saturday could pale in comparison to what we’ll witness in 2012. Never before have the perceived top teams in the nation been more flawed. Never before has the soft underbelly of every power conference been more susceptible. Never before have the upper echelon mid-major schools been as viable and competitive. It’s a distribution of wealth that would make Bernie Sanders blush.

Which Mid-Majors Have the Best Shot to Celebrate Like This?

By the time we reach New Orleans, the cream may rise to the crop. A Final Four consisting of Kentucky, Ohio State, North Carolina and Syracuse wouldn’t stun me. It’s during the first weekend where a handful of non-BCS schools could knock off inadequate power-conference at-large teams. Don’t say you weren’t prepared.

Who are the mid-majors (a designation that excludes the Atlantic 10, Conference USA or Mountain West) most likely to crash the party? Here’s a good place to start:

1. Saint Mary’s: The Gaels performed an offensive clinic best saved for instructional videos in a difficult road environment at BYU on Saturday. After watching that display (and two prior destructions to both BYU and Gonzaga on their home floor) it comes as no surprise that St. Mary’s assists on nearly 62% of made field goals. Their offensive assault is led by face-of-the-program Matthew Dellavedova, who plays almost 92% of the teams’ minutes, ranks in the country’s top 50 in assist rate and provides another shooting threat. What gives the Gaels the sustainability to win multiple games in the Tournament is dominance inside the arc. Randy Bennett’s team shoots 55% and holds opponents to 44% despite employing just two regular rotation players taller than 6’7”.
2. Creighton: We know all about Doug McDermott’s All-America caliber season: an unfathomable 65% from two and 50% from three to match his 23.5 points per game. Now he only needs a sexier name to reach Jimmer-like cult status. Don’t be fooled into thinking this is a one-man rodeo. What’s carried the Bluejays to a 10-1 record in the Valley is a formidable supporting cast with all of the ingredients for a deep March push: an athletic big man in Greg Echenique who can hold his own against power-conference frontlines, a heady senior point guard in Antoine Young with a more than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, stat sheet stuffer Grant Gibbs and two rangy shooters in Jahenns Manigat and Ethan Wragge. Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Four In: Mississippi, Southern Miss, Saint Louis, BYU.
Last Four Out: Arkansas, NC State, Marshall, Colorado State.

*click on the bracket for a full-screen view

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Parity is the most overused expression in sports. Commissioners use it as a crutch to promote the competitive balance in their sport. When a small market teams upends their high-payroll counterparts to win a division championship, cries of parity rain from the masses. Any time there’s an abundance of teams still fighting for a playoff spot on the last week of the season, you’ll undoubtedly hear that parity has never been stronger.

As we geared up for another college basketball season last November, something strange happened: the word parity was nowhere to be found. We had just completed an off-season where a number of expected lottery picks – from North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes to Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger and Baylor’s Perry Jones III – eschewed NBA riches for a return to esteemed programs. Following a Final Four that featured Butler and VCU, this was supposed to be the season where order was restored, the cream rose to the top and we could identify a privileged class of elite teams at the top of the rankings. The 2008 season, where four #1 seeds reached the Final Four, acted as a good comparison.

That expected narrative has been flipped on its head. Instead of “great” teams emerging after a two-year hiatus, there’s as much turmoil as any season in recent memory. Winning on the road is seemingly unfeasible. There’s turnover atop the rankings every single week. So called mid-majors are standing toe-to-toe with storied programs, evident by a three-loss Kansas team that fell to Davidson suddenly looking like a top-five outfit. Unpredictability is alive and well.

There are countless times in sports where that clichéd phrase parity is thrown around wildly and irresponsibly. The 2011-12 college basketball season is not one of those times.

Calipari's Wildcats are back atop the rankings

1. Kentucky (19-1, 5-0)- Incredibly, they still have not dropped a game at home during the John Calipari era. Alabama played uncharacteristically well on the offensive end, punched Kentucky in the mouth and the young Wildcats responded. The true tests of this team’s mettle will be road visits to Vanderbilt (2/11), Mississippi State (2/21) and Florida (3/4). Kentucky ranks second in two-point field goal percentage and first in block percentage largely due to the presence of Anthony Davis inside, while freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist provides athleticism, scoring and toughness beyond his years. One concern has to be freshman point guard Marquis Teague, who has 17 assists and 16 turnovers during SEC play.

2. Syracuse (21-1, 8-1)- Dropping a road game in conference shouldn’t send the Orange faithful to the nearest ledge, but the way in which they fell to Notre Dame was concerning. The Irish followed the blueprint of controlling tempo, limiting live-ball turnovers and making timely threes, while I felt Syracuse became panicky and erratic in their offense way too quickly. The loss of Fab Melo for an undetermined amount of time deprives Syracuse of a crucial shot-blocking presence on the back  line of their zone. The Orange are still far and away the best team in the Big East, on track for a number one seed and Scoop Jardine played phenomenally against Cincinnati, but make them play a half-court game and Syracuse is far from invincible.

3. Missouri (18-1, 5-1)- The oft-repeated theme regarding Missouri was that a team with size, athleticism and length in the post would capitalize on the fact the Tigers only employ two players taller than 6 feet, 8 inches. While Kansas State exposed this flaw, Baylor’s switching defenses had no answer for the most efficient offense in America. Missouri shoots a ridiculous 57% from two and ranks fourth in turnover rate, largely due to the proficiency of point guard Phil Pressey and his pick-and-roll partner Ricardo Ratliffe, who is on pace to break the all-time field goal percentage record. Missouri will be favored in every game the rest of the season, placing them on a fast track for the #1 seed in the St. Louis region.

4. Ohio State (17-3, 5-2)- My heart still tells me Ohio State will be playing on the first Monday in April and, unlike Syracuse, the Big Ten will sufficiently test them for the NCAA Tournament grind. The Buckeyes may have the best point guard (Craft) and center (Sullinger) in the country, but the departures of David Lighty and Jon Diebler has negatively affected William Buford, whose offensive rating and shooting percentages have dipped from last season. Make Craft go left, attack Thomas/Sullinger defensively, dare them to shoot threes and Ohio State is vulnerable. Two recent wins by a combined 51 points against Indiana and Nebraska leads me to believe the Brandon Paul Show in Champaign was a wakeup call.

5. Kansas (17-3, 7-0)- Nothing this season has changed my mind that Bill Self is one of the top five coaches in America. Think about it: the Jayhawks have won seven straight Big 12 titles, lost three draft picks, two more key senior contributors, two freshmen to academics, has no bench and once again sits at the top of the rankings. A major reason has been the progression of enigmatic point guard Tyshawn Taylor, who has scored 95 points on 58 percent shooting in his last four games while turning the ball over just 11 times, including zero in 34 minutes at Texas. Buoyed by Taylor and national POY frontrunner Thomas Robinson, Kansas’ starting five can compete with anyone in the nation.

6. North Carolina (16-3, 3-1)- Store this factoid in mind for your bracket in March: no team has ever won it all after losing by 30 or more points during the season as the Heels did at Florida State last Saturday. They responded well in Blacksburg, but losing Dexter Strickland to a torn ACL is an extremely costly setback. Strickland is Roy Williams’ preferred perimeter stopper, a task which must now be delegated to inexperienced sophomore Reggie Bullock. Strickland served as an efficient glue guy who simply knew his role. Carolina is still Final Four talented, though. They’re a tremendous rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over and keeps you off the free throw line.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Near the tail end of Monday’s Baylor-Kansas game, Dick Vitale, ESPN’s master of hyperbole, predicted that Syracuse would not lose once during the regular season. The odds of becoming the first team to accomplish that feat since the Jameer Nelson/Delonte West-led St. Joseph’s juggernaut of 2004 is slim. In fact, Ken Pomeroy’s projections grant the Orange only a 13.1% chance of running the table.

Still, the Big East conference doesn’t feature nearly as many elite teams as in previous seasons. Potential slip-ups at Notre Dame and Cincinnati are approaching, while visits to ranked teams Louisville and Connecticut remain. All in all, though, the road is as navigable a team can ask for in the gauntlet of conference play.

The Syracuse hype goes deeper than their unblemished record. Aside from a near upset against Stanford, their level of performance from opening night to today has been extraordinary.  In their first 20 games, Syracuse’s margin of victory is a staggering 19.7 points per contest. They lead the nation in steals and can deliver a 14-0 spurt as quickly as any team in the country with their high-flying transition game. Their depth is at the point where most believe members #6 through #10 in their rotation would be a team capable of making the NCAA Tournament.

Still, even the most menacing teams of the last few years are vulnerable to a poor 40-minute output. Illinois’ loaded 2005 squad fell in their season finale to unranked Ohio State and the Hansbrough/Lawson Tar Heels were stunned by Boston College at the Dean Dome, just to name a few. These are college kids, not robots. But how specifically can a Notre Dame or Cincinnati or Louisville knock off this seemingly unstoppable machine? Here are eight essentials to dethroning what may be Jim Boeheim’s best team in 34 years at the helm:

1. Keep the game in the halfcourt

Any hope of knocking off Syracuse begins and ends with limiting the Orange transition game. Boeheim has instructed his guards at the top of their 2-3 zone to always be active in the passing lanes in order to get deflections and race the other way. Not even North Carolina, the near-unanimous preseason number one and a team averaging 85 points per game, is as proficient in transition opportunities as this Syracuse unit. It’s no coincidence that two of their more competitive games- against Virginia Tech at MSG and the recent home victory over Pittsburgh – were two of the three lowest possession contests of the season. Pitt was able to limit the Orange to just 62 possessions despite a 13-0 run to begin the game and stayed within striking distance.

2. Make transition defense a priority

Just like the Wes Johnson/Andy Rautins-led Syracuse outfit of two years ago, the Orange run at every possible opportunity. Their triumvirate of guards – Jardine, Triche and Waiters – is absolutely lethal in full-court mode. If you make Syracuse work for open looks in the halfcourt, they’re much more vulnerable to defeat. Two possible chinks in the armor for the Orange are three-point shooting and ability to get to the free throw line. Syracuse shoots a mediocre 36% from three as a team and ranks 279^th in Division-1 in free throw rate. If a future opponent can keep their guards in the halfcourt and force them into contested jump shots, the odds of an upset dramatically increase. Make or miss, Notre Dame’s guards should make it a priority to sprint back after every shot goes up on Saturday.

3. Employ a threat in the middle of their 2-3 zone

One of the areas where the Syracuse zone is susceptible to a breakdown is near the free throw line. The zone can be carved up by employing a player in that soft spot who can face-up, deliver a pass to a cutter along the baseline or pose a mid-range shooting threat. Of course, only a handful of teams boast a player with that type of skill set. Perusing their schedule, look out for Cincinnati’s Sean Kilpatrick, West Virginia’s Kevin Jones and even Connecticut’s Ryan Olander as players who can flash into the free throw line area and cause problems.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Compiling a list of the nation’s top freshmen in mid-January is admittedly unfair. Whether they’re a high-profile athlete or a science lab dork, ask anyone to reminisce about their first semester at school and the phrase “learning experience” comes to mind. Over the next two months, the grind of conference play will quickly mold youthful freshmen into hardened veterans. As Jeremy Lamb can attest, there’s still plenty of time for collegiate rookies to become a household name.

With that important caveat in mind, let’s gauge where this year’s talented rookies rank in terms of production and instant impact. Not all of the inclusions were ballyhooed recruits and high school All-Americans, but instead I present to you the collection of players who possess the maturation, intelligence and skill level to succeed immediately during such a difficult transition both on and off the court.

Cody Zeller has lived up to the lofty billing

Thomas Gipson, Kansas State- Gipson has proven a tremendous frontcourt compliment to the more perimeter-oriented Jamar Samuels, bulldozing opponents with his sturdy 6’7” frame to the tune of 9.2 PPG and 6.3 RPG through his first half season at Manhattan. Gipson ranks in the top-60 in the country in both offensive rebounding percentage and fouls drawn per 40 minutes.

Tony Mitchell, North Texas– Since becoming eligible on December 18 after failing to qualify at Missouri, Mitchell immediately scored in double-figures his first four games at North Texas. His banner performance to date was a 34-point, 16-rebound effort against South Alabama. The former five-star recruit is shooting an efficient 65% from inside the arc.

Quincy Miller, Baylor– The jewel of Scott Drew’s recruiting class may not post the raw numbers of other rookies due to the abundance of talent on his roster, but Miller has shown flashes of a future lottery pick, including a smooth step-back three down the stretch in Baylor’s win over Kansas State this past week. Miller is a versatile matchup nightmare as a double-figure scorer that shoots 35% from three and also snatches over five rebounds per contest.

Eli Carter, Rutgers– Carter didn’t come to Piscataway with quite the sterling reputation of some of his fellow classmates, but he’s been the most productive freshman from day one. Carter uses the most shots and possessions on a per-minute basis on the Scarlet Knights, and as long as he’s scoring over 14 a game, shooting 43% and posting 31/7/7 efforts like he did in their upset over Florida, Mike Rice will keep the green light on.

Tony Wroten, Washington– The Seattle native has been a Jekyll and Hyde act early for an equally enigmatic Huskies team. The turnovers (4.1 per game), defensive lapses and shot selection are sometimes mind-numbing, but you’ll live with some faults when your 6’5” guard is shooting 55% from inside the arc and grabbing 4.6 rebounds per game. Wroten has scored 20+ points in three of his first five conference outings.

10. Rodney Hood, Mississippi State– Dee Bost, Renardo Sidney and Arnett Moultrie receive the bulk of the attention, but Hood has provided a steady and efficient complimentary scoring option for Rick Stansbury. The southpaw is averaging 12.6 PPG on 53% from two and 44% from three and turns the ball over roughly once every 34 minutes. Improve from the charity stripe (59%) and Hood could be an all-SEC contender as soon as next season.

9. Austin Rivers, Duke- If you can filter out all of the unrealistic expectations, Rivers has completed a very respectable first semester serving as Duke’s primary dribble-drive threat and crunch-time scoring option. Rivers leads Duke in scoring, shoots 45% from two, 40% from three and put together 20+ point performances against top-15 Ohio State and Michigan. Look for Rivers to cut down on his turnovers as the game slows down and his decision-making improves.

8. Andre Drummond, Connecticut– Outside of #1 on this list, no player has as much room to grow from now until March as Drummond. Just as impressive as his highlight reel dunks during a 20-point, 11-rebound outing against West Virginia last Monday were two baseline jumpers he nailed during the second half. If Drummond can expand his offensive repertoire to include occasional mid-range/post scoring to compliment his explosiveness and pick-and-roll prowess, Connecticut may emerge as the second best team in the Big East by season’s close.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

If there’s one thing I’m reminded of every January, it’s that winning on the road in conference play is incredibly difficult.

Ask Missouri, who came into their road game at Kansas State riding an undefeated record and lost by 16. Or consult Connecticut, who had a nightmarish week in New Jersey, succumbing to both Seton Hall and Rutgers. Florida would have a clue, as they were manhandled by rebuilding Tennessee. The same applies to Duke and Georgetown, two more top ten teams that lost on the road during this past week.

Needless to say, the rankings will experience a dramatic shakeup every Monday during a season where our perceptions are constantly in flux. After watching countless hours of hoops over the last two months, here’s how I see the top of the pack:

Fab Melo's rapid improvement has been a big reason for Syracuse's ascent

1. Syracuse (17-0, 4-0): There’s no debate over the best team in the Big East. With Syracuse’s first road game against a ranked team not coming until February 13, it’s looking more and more like a race for the league’s silver medal. The five players that Jim Boeheim shuffles off his bench – notably superb sixth man Dion Waiters, who could be their most talented player — could challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid by themselves. Their patented 2-3 zone is nearly impenetrable and Syracuse is second in block percentage and first in steal percentage, generating countless transition opportunities where they excel in the open court. No team has more depth or is currently playing at a higher level.

2. Kentucky (15-1, 1-0):  The Wildcats are not only sensational at this stage in the season, but with three freshmen and two sophomores among their top six players, they have the most room to grow of any team from now until March. This might be John Calipari’s best defensive team, buoyed by the shot-blocking artistry of center Anthony Davis, the primary reason why Kentucky ranks first in the nation in opponents two-point percentage (37%). The keys for the Wildcats over the next two months will be snapping preseason All-American Terrence Jones out of his perplexing funk and minimizing freshman point guard Marquis Teague’s turnover woes.   Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who plays with an unquenchable energy and can guard four positions, has been the best overall freshman in the country on both ends of the floor.

3. North Carolina (14-2, 1-0): Roy Williams’ team has an inside track at a number one seed due to a watered-down ACC aside from Duke. The common perception of the Tar Heels is one of a potent offensive arsenal and a soft defense, but Carolina ranks 12^th in defensive efficiency and puts the opposing team on the free throw line less than any other team in the country. Harrison Barnes is one of the nation’s top scorers, averaging 17.6 points per game on 49% shooting, many of those open looks courtesy of the nation’s top distributor in Kendall Marshall. What separates this year’s Heels from last year’s 33% three-point shooting team is the health of Reggie Bullock and addition of freshman P.J. Hairston as pinpoint outside gunners.

4. Ohio State (15-2, 3-1): There’s no shame in the Buckeyes two losses at Kansas (without star center Jared Sullinger) and at Indiana by four points. In Sullinger, point guard Aaron Craft and wing William Buford, the Buckeyes boast the best player at each respective position in their conference. Ohio State ranks first in defensive efficiency largely due to the perimeter wizardry of Craft, rank sixth in two-point field goal percentage at a robust 55 percent and are the most proficient defensive rebounding team in the country. One major flaw could be a lack of outside shooting; with no high-volume Buckeye shooting higher than 37 percent from deep, opposing Big Ten defenses may pack the post in an attempt to limit Sullinger and force Ohio State to beat them from beyond the arc.

5. Indiana (14-1, 2-1): Tom Crean’s rebuilding project is one year ahead of schedule. The most dramatic change has been on the defensive end where the Hoosiers have gone from tenth to fifth in the conference in defensive efficiency led by tremendous defenders Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey. Couple that with a 46% team mark from three, Cody Zeller’s efficient post scoring (66% from inside the arc) and Christian Watford’s emergence as an all-Big Ten wing, and it’s no surprise Indiana has pulled off dramatic wins over Kentucky, Ohio State and Michigan at a rejuvenated Assembly Hall. The questions that lie ahead: can Indiana win on the road in conference play, and when those threes inevitably rim out, will they be smart enough to consistently feed Zeller in the post?

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

So much has changed since the beginning of November around college basketball. Our expectations for Georgetown, Indiana and Missouri have skyrocketed while our perceptions of Pittsburgh, Memphis and the entire Pac-12 have dipped considerably. Doug McDermott has emerged as a player of the year candidate while Tu Holloway slipped from preseason All-American to a “gangsta” at the forefront of a Xavier collapse. Ben Howland’s seat is rising in temperature while any notions of Brad Stevens moving in-state to Bloomington have been extinguished.

As conference schedules get underway and teams become more and more exposed, expect to learn even more over the next two-plus months. Here are ten predictions that I believe will come to fruition by the time the nets are cut down in April:

Thomas Robinson will win national player of the year- Preseason favorite Jared Sullinger could win it, but I can’t pinpoint one area where Sullinger is superior to Robinson. The Kansas big man can face up and hit from mid-range, has an unquenchable motor, dominates down low, snatches every rebound in his vicinity, blocks shots, has an NBA-ready body and is light years ahead of Sullinger defensively. I’d draft Robinson first overall in next year’s draft and not think twice about it. Given Kansas’ erratic guard play and total lack of depth, he’s been incredibly valuable to the Jayhawks push for an eighth straight Big 12 regular season title. As long as he stays near his 18/12 averages and top-20 offensive rating, expect Robinson to edge Sullinger, Barnes, McDermott, Lamb, Denmon, Pope or any of the other candidates for the esteemed honor.

Three Pac-12 teams will dance: Cal, Arizona and Washington, none higher than a #9 seed- Cal is the most steady team in the league, can really shoot it from outside and boast a legitimate leader in Jorge Gutierrez to keep the Bears on track. Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs (29.3 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 17-25 from three) has provided a welcomed scoring punch at the combo guard alongside Allen Crabbe. If Harper Kamp can stay on the floor to solidify a thin frontcourt, Cal should win this downtrodden league. Despite accomplishing nothing of note during non-conference play, expect Arizona to string together enough wins to finish second behind a balanced scoring attack. Sean Miller’s teams usually peak when the chips are down in February and March. We’ve seen Washington excel on neutral floors in years past. Look for the Huskies to finally put their superior talent to good use, claim the Pac-12 tournament crown and make another March push.

Murray State will receive no higher than a #5 seed regardless of record- I’d never bet on any college basketball team finishing the campaign unblemished, but Murray State has as good of a chance as any recent candidate. Not only do they play in the low-major Ohio Valley, but the league as a whole is much less competitive than in recent seasons; for example, preseason favorite Austin Peay is 3-12 and has already lost twice in conference play. Because of their lackluster strength of schedule, this is a much different situation than when Drake went deep into February with one loss in 2008 or even St. Joe’s undefeated run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament in 2004. The Racers only non-conference wins of note are Memphis, Dayton and Southern Mississippi. I expect them to lose once their 45% team three-point percentage dips down to earth, but even at 30-0 after the OVC Tournament, Murray State doesn’t deserve a seed any better than a #5 seed.

Saint Louis, not Temple or Xavier, will win the Atlantic 10- This prediction made much more sense before Wednesday when Temple played their best 40 minutes of the season in an upset win over Duke and St. Louis slipped in their A-10 opener at Dayton. Xavier may be the most talented team in the league and they still have two months to straighten their ship, but I trust Rick Majerus’ Billikens more than any other unit. St. Louis ranks 14^th in defensive efficiency, shoots it well from both inside and beyond the arc and boasts a steady, playmaking point guard in Kwamain Mitchell to team with Brian Conklin and Cody Ellis. With St. Joe’s and Dayton overachieving, the A-10 (and both the MVC and WCC) could still some bids from the lackluster soft middle of major conferences.

Read the rest of this entry »