College Basketball’s Unanswered Questions

Posted by zhayes9 on December 23rd, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. You can follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

Next Tuesday marks a crucial day in the college basketball calendar. Not only have final exams been completed and Christmas break is in the rear view mirror, but the soft underbelly of the schedule is also in the past. Pitt battling Notre Dame and Wisconsin traveling to Nebraska are just two of the conference games scheduled for next Tuesday as we officially move beyond the slowest two weeks of the season into a non-stop hoops until early April.

Many questions have been answered during the season’s unofficial first half. Frank Haith wasn’t such a bad hire after all. Baylor can win on the road. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is as lethal as ever. The Pac-12 is worse than even the most cynical projection. The Missouri Valley is the best mid-major league and may receive three bids. The beauty of college basketball is that there’s still so much more to be determined and the conference slate offers the ultimate growing process.  Here are some questions I still have for the top contenders. Only the next three months hold the answers.

Improved decision making from Scoop Jardine would enhance Syracuse's chances of winning it all

#1 Syracuse: Last four minutes of a tie game, who responds? The Orange have been fantastic so far, plowing through a relatively benign and home-friendly schedule to climb atop the rankings. In their one nail-biter down the stretch, Kris Joseph displayed an aggression down the stretch that didn’t show up as a junior. Can he maintain that killer instinct into Big East play? Will Scoop Jardine regress into a turnover machine and take poor shots? Will their breadth of inexperienced big men tense up? I’m anxious to see how Syracuse responds to adversity against a talented opponent on the road.

#2 Ohio State: How healthy is Jared Sullinger? A potentially lingering back injury was enough of a concern before suffering a bone bruise in his foot in the opening minutes at South Carolina. How long these injuries nag the near-consensus preseason national player of the year could determine if Ohio State earns their second straight top seed. Ohio State runs so much smoother with Sullinger at full strength. His presence allows Craft, Smith, Buford and Thomas to spread the floor, opening up dribble penetration lanes and preventing double-teams on the Buckeye big man.

#3 Kentucky: How much maturation over the next three months? Kentucky is the most talented team in the nation. Their seven-man rotation is tremendously multi-faceted, versatile and athletic and John Calipari is a master at molding a group of raw players into a cohesive unit. The hourglass never stops, though. There’s a limited amount of time for Cal to work his magic. Terrence Jones can’t check out of games. Marquis Teague has to become more efficient. Anthony Davis must develop some semblance of a low-post game. There’s work to be done. Now it’s just a matter of if it can get done in time to outlast Florida in the SEC and win big in March.

#4: Louisville: Can defense carry this team? The Cardinals are clearly not the fourth best team in the nation. They rank 12th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, 65th in offensive efficiency and shoot 32% from three. Louisville is 11-0 because they work harder than anyone for 40 minutes, only left the Yum! Center once to play a young Butler team, and, most of all, play outstanding defense. Pitino employs an aggressive matchup zone that can morph into a man-to-man on a post touch immediately. Even with Wayne Blackshear returning at some point in January, the Cards are still very limited offensively when compared to Syracuse, Connecticut or Marquette. Can their chaotic, suffocating defense reign supreme against more potent offensive opponents?

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College Basketball’s First Semester Report Card

Posted by zhayes9 on December 16th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. You can follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

Exam week. The worst period of the college basketball season is nearly behind us.

For players, competitive games are replaced by study sessions and extra practices. For fans, all of the momentum the sport gained from November tournaments and premiere non-conference games disappears. With the handful of intriguing bowl games still weeks away and no NBA to keep us semi-occupied, there’s an undeniable void in the sports schedule. After all, Tebow-mania can only hold our attention for so long.

In honor of exam week, let’s play professor and pass out our own evaluations of what we’ve seen so far this season. Who’s exceeded expectations and passed every test on their schedule? Who’s underachieved and deserves a failing grade? Let’s reveal:

A+: Syracuse- Honestly, no team truly deserves a perfect grade. The only argument could have been Ohio State had they won in Lawrence without Jared Sullinger. Despite two near slip-ups in New York, Syracuse is the class of the undefeated. They’re the deepest team in America, bolstered by a dynamic sixth man in Dion Waiters and the rapid improvement of Fab Melo. The length and aggression of their patented 2-3 zone is confounding the opposition, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, first in steal percentage and fourth in block percentage. As long as Kris Joseph displays the killer instinct he showed in the tail end of their Stanford victory and Scoop Jardine values possessions, the Orange are Big East favorites.

Marcus Denmon has played a major role in Mizzou's fast start

A: Missouri- Just two months ago, skepticism was a common theme among the Tiger faithful with the controversial hiring of Frank Haith and Laurence Bowers’ devastating ACL tear.  Now they’re enjoying a potential Final Four outfit running roughshod over everyone on their schedule, the most memorable being a 39-point drubbing of expected Pac-12 title contender California. Haith has established a mentality of controlled chaos, preaching the same up-tempo pace encouraged by Mike Anderson without neglecting the half-court prowess of point guard Phil Pressey and the catch-and-shoot proficiency of guards Marcus Denmon and Kim English. The result is a well-oiled machine ranking in the top-15 in two-point, three-point and free throw percentage. The next task: winning a true road game outside of Columbia.

A-: San Diego State- The coaching job by Aztecs coach Steve Fisher has been nothing short of admirable this season. After his program lost three tremendously productive seniors and one lottery pick, a rebuilding period was to be rightfully expected. This isn’t Duke or North Carolina where the loss of program icons are quickly replaced by the latest batch of blue chip prospects. Instead of reverting back to mediocrity, SDSU already has two wins over preseason top-25 Arizona and California and nearly downed MVC favorite Creighton. A major reason has been the emergence of junior guard Chase Tapley, who is averaging 17.7 PPG on a cool 50% from the floor and 51% from deep.

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Badgers Winning Despite Taylor’s Struggles

Posted by zhayes9 on December 14th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. He attended last night’s Wisconsin @ Milwaukee game and filed this report.

Memo to Wisconsin fans: don’t worry about Jordan Taylor.

Despite hitting a dagger three with under a minute left, last night’s performance in the Badgers 60-54 win at Milwaukee (5-14 FG) was the latest in a long line of off-shooting nights for Taylor so far this season. The preseason All-American has yet to top 18 points in a single game, forcing role players such as Ben Brust, Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans to handle a larger chunk of the scoring load.

Taylor's shooting slump is bound to end very soon

But it’s the percentage decrease that’s truly frightening. His FG% has plummeted dramatically from 43% as a junior to 36% as a senior. Taylor’s three-point (43% to 33%) and free throw (83% to 70%) marksmanship has also dipped. Even his turnovers are higher than last season’s remarkable rate and the 0-10 FG night against UNLV was certainly an eye-opener.

Still, the Badgers sit firmly entrenched in the top 25 with a 9-2 record on the season. They were a handful of threes away from upsetting North Carolina on their home floor. They controlled tempo and easily dispatched of a top-25 caliber UNLV team. They pulled away and won by 17 against BYU. Every low-major Division I team on their schedule has been no match for Wisconsin.

That’s right, 9-2 and in the top 25 with their preseason All-American, the centerpiece of their offense and one of the single most important players in college basketball shooting a meager 36%.

That simply won’t last. Unless that minor ankle surgery over the summer is causing him ongoing problems or he’s hiding a new injury of some sort, Taylor’s shooting slump will end any day now. He’s way too good of a shooter, finisher and playmaker for his numbers to dip that suddenly. His 18.1 PPG and 43% mark from three last season didn’t happen by accident.

Although one could never tell Taylor is struggling by the way he constantly encourages teammates and plays with that easygoing, free-flowing pace, his emotional reaction after sinking that game-clinching three did suggest he was feeling some pressure. He knows he must step up and carry a team that, on some nights, has a very difficult time scoring on a consistent basis.

“I’m just trying to stay aggressive, stay confident,” Taylor said after the game. “I think I shot alright from the two areas I’ve been struggling most from three and free throws. I just couldn’t finish around the rim so it’s the same thing. It’s just a mental thing, mental toughness. Just got to hang in there and do a better job and be tougher about it.”

Berggren still has all the confidence in the world in his senior leader. I’m sure if you polled the rest of this year’s Badgers, they’d wholeheartedly agree.

“How can you not want a guy like that taking that shot?” Berggren said. “He showed at the end there, when it comes down to it, we all have confidence in him. I know he still has confidence to make that big shot and I think the majority of the time he’s going to come through for us and perform when we need him.”

The big question heading into this season was whether Wisconsin could find a secondary scoring option to relieve some of the pressure from Taylor. The silver lining from his slump is that other players have taken turns shouldering the load, whether it’s Brust making all seven of his threes against UNLV or Evans chipping in with 16 points and eight rebounds in the hard-fought win at Milwaukee.

Taylor will come around. There’s no reason to think otherwise. With their role players showing they’re capable of stepping up when called upon and another stalwart Badger defense stifling opponents, Wisconsin is once again a threat to finish near the top of the Big Ten.

Just wait until Jordan Taylor gets going.

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Power Conference Rankings: Amended

Posted by zhayes9 on December 6th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

I don’t ever remember a season where more coaches challenged their teams this early in the non-conference. From mandatory league challenges to aircraft carrier showdowns to champions meeting at Madison Square Garden, you haven’t had to search too hard to find a compelling matchup on any given night the last three-plus weeks. The result: frequent opportunities to judge teams against high-quality competition rather than the usual slate of cupcakes. Enough lasting impressions have been made to revise some of our pre-season prognostications and compile an updated conference power ranking.

(Note: as punishment for their embarrassing early-season performance, the Pac-12 can no longer be considered on par with the other major conferences. We’ll revisit this again in January).

Despite two losses, Marshall and UNC still class of ACC

ACC

  1. North Carolina. Some toughness questions answered in Kentucky close loss. Marshall an assist machine but often exploited on the other end. Still a clear Final Four favorite based on talent level.
  2. Duke. No reliable low post scorer, perimeter defense leaves much to be desired and only Rivers can beat you off the dribble. Still boasts a plethora of shooters, very efficient, three really solid wins to date. Top 10 team.
  3. Florida State. Competitive in any game because of length, defense, athleticism. Extremely turnover prone and Snaer disappears. Return of PG Ian Miller could help.
  4. Virginia. Also proficient defensively in the halfcourt and on the glass. Stagnant offensively unless Mike Scott decides to take over. Double-double machine needs to be all-ACC for Cavs to excel.
  5. Miami. Overly dependent on Grant/Scott guard duo. Started no one taller than 6’6 vs. Purdue. Badly needs Reggie Johnson back to punch ticket.
  6. NC State. Really struggles to execute in the halfcourt and allowing 41% from 3. Also extremely athletic and C.J. Leslie has been really active which is a great sign. Texas scalp could be big bubble win.
  7. Virginia Tech. No excuse losing to Minnesota with Mbakwe/Sampson out. Erick Green backing up breakout predictions, Dorenzo Hudson MIA. Appears NIT-bound.
  8. Maryland. Obvious rebuild year but Stoglin will keep them in any game. Could be frisky second half with Turgeon’s coaching ability if shooting improves and Howard/Len can contribute.
  9. Clemson. Big Brownell believer but three regrettable home losses already to Charleston, Coastal Carolina and weak South Carolina squad. Andre Young bright spot.
  10. Wake Forest. Competitive vs. Dayton then gets torched by terrible ASU squad. Post defense is an issue. Wish Travis McKie could get recognized.
  11. Georgia Tech. 52 points against Tulane. 53 vs. St. Joe’s. 50 vs. LSU. 193rd in offensive efficiency, 266th in turnover percentage, 263rd from 3. Pretty obvious they can’t score.
  12. Boston College.  A team of freshmen that need to be developed. KenPom page features more red than the Communist Army.

Big 12

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Ball Reversal: ACC/Big Ten Challenge

Posted by zhayes9 on November 29th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Feast Week is one of my favorite portions of the college basketball season. There’s no better way to celebrate Thanksgiving than hunkering down on the couch, flipping through various tournaments and getting that first glimpse at intriguing players and programs around the country. As enjoyable as those matchups may have been — from Duke outlasting Kansas in a Maui classic to UCF shocking UConn in the Bahamas — this upcoming week is even more delectable. Look no further than the perennially awesome batch of games courtesy of the incomparable ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Here are the five headlining matchups accompanied by the biggest key for victory for both teams:

Will Plumlee's defense frustrate Sullinger tonight?

Duke at Ohio State (Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

How Duke wins: Repeat performance from Mason Plumlee. One of the most compelling post battles of the early season was undoubtedly Kansas’ Thomas Robinson banging bodies with Plumlee in the post during the Maui final last Wednesday night. Robinson finished with his usual double-double, but Plumlee’s athleticism, size and tremendous post defense limited the centerpiece of the Jayhawks offense to six field goals in 36 minutes. His coach was certainly impressed, calling Plumlee’s efforts to contain Robinson “the key to the game” and declaring that although Ryan Kelly took home MVP honors, Duke doesn’t beat Kansas without Plumlee’s post defense. Life in the paint doesn’t get any easier for Plumlee on Tuesday against near-unanimous preseason All-American Jared Sullinger, but if there has been a chink in the armor for Sully, it has come when facing an athletic post big that can force him off the block. Duke is a heavy ball-screen action team that loves to spread the floor with their plethora of capable shooters. If Plumlee can muscle Sullinger away from a comfortable position on the floor and force him to exert energy defending high ball screens, he’ll be much less effective and Duke will take a big step towards garnering another huge early season triumph.

How Ohio State wins: Dribble penetration from their guards. If there’s one glaring weakness that painfully obvious through Duke’s first handful of games, it is perimeter defense out of their guard triumvirate Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Austin Rivers. From Belmont’s Kerron Johnson to Michigan’s Trey Burke to Kansas’ Tyshawn Taylor, opposing guards have had a field day breaking down Duke’s guards through dribble penetration. Duke’s best on-ball defender is actually reserve guard Tyler Thornton, so much that Coach K sat Rivers down the stretch against Kansas in favor of Thornton and his defensive acumen. Ohio State’s backcourt, specifically Aaron Craft, offensive-minded reserve Shannon Scott and wing William Buford, must maintain an aggressive mentality for 40 minutes. Craft could be especially effective against Curry, the weakest of the lot, with his repertoire of hesitation dribbles and ability to get into the late and draw help, while Duke doesn’t have a clear matchup against the 6’6” Buford and his explosive scoring ability.

Wisconsin at North Carolina (Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

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Overvalued/Undervalued: November Edition

Posted by zhayes9 on November 23rd, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Over the last three weeks, I’ve made it a priority to absorb as much college basketball as humanly possible. From Manhattan to Puerto Rico to Maui, there’s been an abundance of quality matchups and intriguing contests across the landscape, and, thanks to a lack of consequential responsibilities (college is fun), my mission has gone off without a hitch.

Of course, so much changes after the month of November. Teams alter their playing style, discontented reserves transfer for more playing time, someone blows out their ACL in practice…it’s inevitable that the outfits we see in March will only partially resemble our impressions today. We all remember the roller coaster ride for Connecticut a year ago – undefeated during a grueling non-conference, .500 in the Big East, 11-0 in postseason tourney play.

Still, trends are developing, players are emerging and teams are starting to separate themselves, especially after an unusually high number of premiere early-season games. Plus, as the saying goes: First impressions are the most lasting. Here are some players, teams and coaches I kept help but judging as either undervalued or overvalued after the first 3+ weeks.

Anthony Grant has Tide fans thinking about more than football

Overvalued: Wisconsin. The Badgers are turning some heads early on by posting lop-sided final scores and holding opponents to absurd point totals and field goal percentages. Allow me to pump the brakes for a moment. Those opponents that the Badgers are bludgeoning into oblivion are Kennesaw State, Colgate, UMKC and a Wofford team that lost their top three scorers.  Amidst the blowouts is actually a disturbing trend. Without Jon Leuer posting up or any feared back to the basket presence, Wisconsin is jacking up a three-pointer in 47.2% of their possessions, tops in the nation. Making 48% of those treys is fool’s good and completely unsustainable for any team not consisting of Jon Diebler clones. If they’re relying on so many threes against the dregs of Division I, what happens when Michigan State or Purdue muscles the Badgers around?  Bo Ryan has a real solid unit and Jordan Taylor will start to accrue more of the scoring load as the season wears on, but don’t be fooled by the lopsided scores and buy into Wisconsin as the 11th-best team in the land.

Undervalued: SEC top tier. The popular belief heading into this season was that the Big East would once again reign supreme among conferences. It certainly helps to have 16 teams, but that belief still holds true; the Big East could legitimately receive ten bids to the NCAA Tournament this season depending on how expected bubble teams like West Virginia, Notre Dame, Villanova and Georgetown develop. Among the expected contenders at the top of the league, though, the SEC stacks up with the powerful Big East. Kentucky finally has an ideal mix of ultra-talented rookies and returnees. Florida should have an outstanding campaign, especially after Patric Young held his own against Jared Sullinger. Vanderbilt will improve once Festus Ezeli returns. But it’s Alabama that swung the pendulum. Their smothering team defense, length and athleticism serves as the backbone for an emerging top-15 team in Tuscaloosa.

Overvalued: Andre Drummond. Sometimes we forget that Jared Sullinger is the exception to the rule. Most freshmen, especially freshman centers who don’t control as many possessions as guards, are humbled when they make the considerable jump from high school or prep ranks to the rigors of college basketball (Fab Melo anyone?). Drummond stunned the hoops universe by enrolling at his home state school for what everyone anticipated was a one-year cameo. Drummond will surely improve and post more inspiring numbers, but 23 points scored and 14 fouls committed through four games isn’t exactly the resume of a lottery pick. Drummond is in the midst of a challenging transition process, even more so than other rookies like Brad Beal, Anthony Davis or Quincy Miller. Luckily for him and most of the college basketball populous, there’s plenty of time till March.

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Ball Reversal: 24-Hour Marathon Edition

Posted by zhayes9 on November 14th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

The idea of an “opening day” has always been a challenging concept for college basketball. Rather than one momentous game-signaling commencement, we’re introduced to hoops by St. John’s and Arizona playing somewhat competitive mid-majors every other night. With football in full swing, the absence of a season-opening celebration often keeps more casual observers out of the loop.

Improvements are slowly being instituted. The unique nature of the near-consensus #1 team in the country playing on an aircraft carrier surely increased awareness. But it’s the ESPN-invented four-year old Tip-off Marathon that has truly registered on the nation’s radar. This season’s slate is so promising that a battle of top ten teams is being overshadowed by the newly formed Champions Classic featuring Duke, Michigan State, Kentucky and Kansas.

For hoops-starved fans whose last memory is the UConn-Butler brickfest last April, merely plopping on the couch for hour after hour of hoops is sufficient enough, but let me take you through the analytical realm of each game, tackling the key question: what does each team need to do to ensure a resume-building victory?

#7 Florida at #3 Ohio State, 8 PM ET

Patric Young holds the key to not only a win at OSU but Florida's entire season

How Florida wins: Patric Young becomes a man. Exactly one year ago, Jared Sullinger announced his presence to the college basketball world by dropping 26 points on an overwhelmed Florida frontcourt. Not only did Sullinger become a household name after that breakout performance, but Ohio State vaulted to the top of the rankings for nearly the entire campaign. He doesn’t have to score 26 points on 17 shots or make an All-America team, but Florida’s success this upcoming season is predicated on Young taking a big step forward as a paint enforcer and capable scoring option. The Gators backcourt is absolutely loaded, but Young must provide some semblance of balance to prevent teams from crowding the perimeter defensively. His first major test: the newly trimmed Sullinger. For 30-32 minutes. On the road. Young doesn’t have to outplay Sullinger, but if he merely keeps Sullinger in check and shows glimpses of effectiveness, Florida’s guards are lethal enough to exact revenge on the Buckeyes.

How Ohio State wins: Perimeter defense. It’s no secret that Florida will be extremely perimeter-oriented this season. Billy Donovan has broached the possibility of utilizing a four-guard lineup at times with Erving Walker, Kenny Boynton, stud freshman Brad Beal and Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario all on the floor. Obviously utilizing Jared Sullinger as much as possible is helpful, but if the Buckeye guards can force the Gators into ill-advised shots on the other end (they tend to cooperate), it could be the second straight Buckeye blowout. Aaron Craft is the ideal perimeter defender to harass Walker, while Thad Matta might go with Lenzelle Smith, a player much more defensive-oriented than scorer Shannon Scott, as the starting two-guard and Will Buford at the wing against Florida’s smaller lineup. Craft is as reliable as they come, but Smith didn’t break Matta’s notoriously thin rotation last season and Buford is prone to periodic defensive lapses. If those two step up their game on the defensive end, the Buckeyes will ensure themselves a win that will surely look good in March.

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Kansas, 9:30 PM ET

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Early Impressions

Posted by zhayes9 on November 14th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

I’ve had a chance to watch both of St. John’s and Arizona’s preliminary Coaches vs. Cancer games, Duke tangle with upset-minded Belmont, and, of course, Michigan State face North Carolina in the Carrier Classic. With the obvious caveat that it is incredibly early in the season with so much yet to be determined, here are my initial thoughts on these teams:

Aside from Malik Stith, Lavin has his hands full with all newcomers

St. John’s: Losing three key members of a loaded recruiting class would be devastating for any program, but it will especially inhibit St. John’s due to their full-court pressure and aggressive matchup zone. Fatigue and a lack of depth could be a major issue once the Johnnies have to contain more athletic lineups than what William & Mary or Lehigh have to offer. God’s Gift Aschiuwa is powerful and efficient, but he’s also their only low-post scorer. He simply won’t be able to play 37.5 minutes per game throughout the entire season. Look for future opposition to mostly zone or play a sagging man-to-man against a roster that’s much more comfortable creating offense through penetration. Even if the young St. John’s guards impose their athleticism and get to the rim, help defenders shouldn’t be afraid to foul; players not named God’s Gift combined to shoot 28-53 from the charity stripe during the first two games, which could be a recurring issue for a freshman-dominated team. I like their individual pieces and future potential. Moe Harkless is a dynamic, face-up four, Naurideen Lindsey is a tough energizer and Aschiuwa is an absolute load to handle. I just worry playing seven-deep is going to catch up to a team that’s already woefully inexperienced.

Duke: I said this before the season and their season opener only re-affirmed my notion that Duke is going to experience some early growing pains before peaking late. The brightest spot was undoubtedly Mason Plumlee, who showed an array of post-up and face-up moves not in the repertoire last season. If Plumlee can combine all of the tools — a reliable mid-range jumper, dependable baby hook, solid post defense — with his gifted athleticism, he’ll impress NBA scouts and could prove Duke’s best post option in a long time. Duke has outstanding individual pieces, but it’s going to take a few months for the coaching staff to put the puzzle together with Seth Curry adjusting to the point, Austin Rivers often playing way too fast and Ryan Kelly looking rather ordinary (worth noting Kelly bounced back with 17 points vs. weaker Presbyterian). The other issue is Curry, Rivers and Andre Dawkins repeatedly get beat on dribble penetration; they’ll miss Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler’s sturdiness on that front. Twice on out-of-bounds underneath plays Dawkins did not stay between his man and the basket and it resulted in a Belmont layup. Fortunately, the trio giveth as much as they taketh away, evident by Dawkins canning a game-clinching three.

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The 2011-12 ProZach Awards

Posted by zhayes9 on November 8th, 2011

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.

Every August, ESPN college football guru Kirk Herbstreit releases his Herbie awards, a grab bag of honors and predictions about the upcoming season covering everything from quickest running back to hardest-hitting linebacker. The Herbies are so popular they even resulted in their own half-hour show hosted by Herbstreit and Erin Andrews. With no equivalent in the hoops world, I volunteered to step up to the plate. Some of these awards are Herbie knock-offs, some are 100% original and all are intended to be fun. Whether they look ridiculous by March…well, the jury is out. Here are this year’s Pro-Zach awards, passing out happy pills since 2011:

Washington's Terrence Ross is ready to make the leap

All-Next Chapter

  • Team Irreverence: Players Who Don’t Get Enough Respect – GOLD: Rodney McGruder (Kansas State), SILVER: Kent Bazemore (Old Dominion), BRONZE: Doug McDermott (Creighton)
  • Shhh, Don’t Tell: Best Kept Secrets – GOLD: C.J. McCollum (Lehigh), SILVER: Alex Young (IUPUI), BRONZE: Dominique Morrison (Oral Roberts)
  • Forwarding Address: Top Transfers – GOLD: Mike Rosario (Florida), SILVER: Royce White (Iowa State), BRONZE: Brandon Wood (Michigan State)
  • Fresh Approach: Top True Freshmen – GOLD: Anthony Davis (Kentucky), SILVER: Austin Rivers (Duke), BRONZE: Andre Drummond (Connecticut)
  • Off and Running: Ready To Take It To The Next Level – GOLD: Terrence Ross (Washington), SILVER: Keith Appling (Michigan State), BRONZE: Michael Snaer (Florida State)

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Get to the Point: Season Preview Edition

Posted by zhayes9 on November 7th, 2011

Zach Hayes and Brian Otskey are both RTC contributors and will converse on various pressing issues around college basketball all season long. Follow them on Twitter at @zhayes9 and @botskey.

Zach: The interminable college basketball offseason is on the brink of conclusion. I don’t know about you Brian, but when 7 PM rolls around tonight and St. John’s tips off against William & Mary on ESPNU, my life will become exponentially better.

There’s potential powerhouse teams in Chapel Hill, Lexington, Storrs and Columbus. Numerous lottery picks opted for another year on campus over jumping ship to the pros early. There’s a breadth of developed, refined seniors lining rosters of expected contenders. Until resolved, the NBA lockout will shine a bright spotlight on the college game. The Big East is once again stacked at the top, while wide open races will render the Big 12 and Pac-12 intriguing all season long. Needless to say, this is shaping up to be quite the memorable season.

We’d be remiss if we didn’t discuss North Carolina right off the bat. As soon as Harrison Barnes decided to spurn the NBA, expectations for Carolina vaulted to national championship or bust. Just nine months ago, the unranked Tar Heels lost at Georgia Tech by 20 to fall to 12-5 following a season that ended in the NIT. It’s been a remarkable turnaround in short order. Do you see any future pitfalls for this team? One has to be the lack of a backup point guard in case Kendall Marshall goes down. The other is outside shooting. Carolina made just 33% of their threes last season, but they have plenty of candidates to improve on that mark, from Barnes to a healthy Reggie Bullock to touted freshman P.J. Hairston. The third would be the one-and-done nature of the NCAA Tournament. Anything can happen in one 40-minute contest. Just ask Ohio State, a dominant team across the board a year ago that lost just two games at Purdue and Wisconsin during the regular season, but fell to a peaking Kentucky team in the Sweet Sixteen.

Carolina has to go into 2011-12 considered the best team in the nation, but I picked Kentucky to take home the title in my preseason Bracketology. I didn’t make the pick just because I like being contrarian and rebellious. I made the pick because I firmly believe that John Calipari finally has the ideal mix of experienced returnees and ultra-talented freshman to take the crown. Terrence Jones is bulked up, mature, focused and ready to be a Lamar Odom-type mismatch nightmare for opposing defenses. Doron Lamb shot 48% from three… as a freshman. I love the glue guy skill set that Darius Miller brings, even though the reigning SEC Tournament MVP can be so much more. I know what you’re thinking: freshman point guard. Gerry McNamara says hello. Marquis Teague is the real deal, blessed with a blazing first step and tremendous court vision. He’s also more of an ideal point guard for the dribble-drive motion offense that Calipari prefers than Brandon Knight, who was involved in much more high screening action to utilize his strong outside shot.

Terrence Jones' return is one reason Zach is bullish about Kentucky

Your thoughts on North Carolina and Kentucky? Can anyone seriously defend picking any other team in the nation to hoist the trophy in Indianapolis next April over these two?

Brian: You read my mind. Not only is Kentucky’s point guard a freshman, six of the eight players expected to see major minutes are freshmen or sophomores. You know I’m big on experience and to me that trumps talent in certain (not all) situations. I know many will disagree with that line of thinking. There are exceptions to every rule. Obviously this is a talented team and you’d be nuts not to put them in the preseason top three. However, don’t underestimate the loss of DeAndre Liggins and Josh Harrellson. Liggins was clearly Calipari’s best defender while Harrellson did all the dirty work in the paint. Terrence Jones can’t do all the rebounding by himself so somebody has to contribute in that regard with Harrellson out of the picture. It may not be much of a problem with Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Kyle Wiltjer coming in but I think it’s unreasonable to expect freshmen, even as talented as this group is, to consistently put forth that effort. They’ll need some time to adjust to the speed of the college game. Kentucky will go far in the postseason but I will most likely not pick them to win it all. When the pressure cranks up, even the most talented freshmen will get nervous. That’s what I think will hold UK back in the end.

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