The SEC Full Court Press is a quick hitting review of my thoughts and observations from the last week, as well as a look ahead.
The Week That Was:
LSU is quietly on a six-game winning streak after beating #10 ranked Marquette and North Texas this past week. Could the Tigers (9-3, RPI of 53) give the SEC an unexpected sixth team in the NCAA Tournament? A January 2 match-up with Virginia is shaping up to be a much bigger game than anticipated as this could be a huge resume building win for the Tigers.
Speaking of LSU, center Justin Hamilton has stepped up his play as of late. Hamilton is averaging 13.8 points and eight rebounds per game over his last four contests.
Freshman Johnny O’Bryant recorded his first double-double of his career in the Tigers’ win over North Texas on Thursday. O’Bryant scored 11 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.
The 48.3% field goal percentage Florida shot in its win over Florida State was the highest shooting percentage the Seminoles have given up all year, showcasing why this Florida team is one of the best in the country. In this classic battle of offense versus defense, offense won.
Kentucky‘s win over Loyola on Thursday has given the Wildcats the longest home win streak in the country at 42 games dating back to March of 2009. The Cats have not lost a game at Rupp Arena in the John Calipari era.
It isn’t all about the freshmen in Lexington. With Terrence Jones out of the lineup with a dislocated finger, senior Darius Miller has risen to the occasion. This week, Miller averaged 15 points, 3.5 rebounds, and four assists per game.
We noted Tennessee‘s putrid three-point defense in the latest edition of Freeze Frame. The Volunteers are allowing opponents to shoot 40.3% from beyond the arc, which is 327th in the nation. Tennessee did slightly better this week, holding both opponents under 40%.
Since the last Pac-12 Morning Five, we only had two games featuring conference teams. In the biggest of those, California got straight embarrassed by UNLV on Friday afternoon. After toying with the Bears for seven minutes or so, the Runnin’ Rebels ripped off a 31-12 run to end the first half, took a 20-point lead to the locker room and never looked back from there. Justin Cobbs had 20 points in the game, but the other three Golden Bear guards who started the game combined to shoot 8-of-31, turn the ball over nine times and just generally get outclassed by the UNLV guards, leaving Cal with wins over Denver and Georgia as their non-conference highlights. Meanwhile, Friday evening, UCLA knocked off Richmond for its fifth straight win and its best win of its non-conference stretch. In short, neither of these teams – both of whom were considered Pac-12 favorites prior to the season – should count on being able to earn an at-large NCAA Tournament bid barring a spectacular run in the Pac-12 season.
With non-conference play all but over (three non-conference games of marginal interest remain) and conference play on the doorstep, Percy Allen at The Seattle Times handed out his awards for the non-conference season, with Jared Cunningham taking down the Player of the Year award, Tony Wroten the Freshman of the Year, and Johnny Dawkins the Coach of the Year. No real surprises there, but we’ll have our own choices up tomorrow with which to compare these.
Looking ahead to the conference season, this may be obvious, but the chase for the title is completely up for grabs. Teams like UCLA, California, Arizona and Washington – considered prior to the season to be the four teams who would have the best chance at a Pac-12 title – all faltered to one degree or another in non-conference play. Oregon State and Stanford, middle-of-the-pack teams in the preseason, have impressed thus far, while Oregon, Washington State and even Colorado have shown some reasons for optimism. While this is admittedly not a great conference by a long shot, it could still be a great race for the title this year.
Oregon State sophomore center Chris Brown announced at the end of last week that he would be leaving the program and transferring elsewhere. If you were among those who were unaware that somebody named Chris Brown played for Oregon State, don’t beat yourself up: Brown played a total of 38 minutes last season and had yet to see the court this year, despite several games in which the Beavers blew out their opponents.
Lastly, an interesting piece on coaches who use some advanced statistics to help analyze their team’s performances, with Arizona State head coach Herb Sendek getting special attention. Sendek likes to chart things such as defensive deflections and defensive efficiency in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock as a way of improving his team’s performance. ASU found earlier in the year that teams were scoring against them 57% of the time that they took the shot clock inside of 10 seconds, and since that time Sendek has been emphasizing the importance of defending opponents for an entire 35 seconds.
Last week I discussed the overachievers of this early Big 12 season. It was a cheery, sunshine-laced post, discussing players who are playing above and beyond their expectations so far this season. Today, we conquer the inevitable, and discuss the teams and players who have underperformed for their team so far this season. The good news? There is still plenty of time to make amends.
Oklahoma State: With the addition of freshmen sensation Le’Bryan Nash and Cezar Guerrero, plus the senior leadership of floor general Keiton Page, the Cowboys were expected to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid this season. So far, they have shown no signs of meeting those expectations. Eleven games into the season, the Cowboys already have five losses. While none of these losses have come against mid-majors, what is truly worrisome about the Cowboys is their abysmal team field goal percentage, 41.2%, which ranks 260th in the country. True, in some games, the shots just don’t fall. But to shoot this poorly in every game is troublesome, and with conference play looming, the Cowboys need to get their act together if they want any shot at postseason glory this year.
Tyshawn Taylor Has Must Get His TO Problem Under Control
Tyshawn Taylor’s Turnover Problem: It would be unfair to say Tyshawn is having a poor season. He’s averaging 15.3 points per game, and has gotten to the charity stripe more than anyone else in the Big 12. But his knack for turning the ball over was most recently apparent in Kansas’s loss last week to Davidson, a game where Taylor turned the ball over five times. He also miscued the ball seven times against Ohio State and 11 times against Duke earlier this season. What is even more surprising is that two years ago Taylor averaged just 1.7 turnovers per game, while this season, his turnover rate is at 4.2 per game. Taylor will need to reclaim his ball control before conference play starts in earnest if Kansas expects to make another deep run in March.
Brian Otskey is the RTC correspondent for the Big East conference. You can find him on Twitter @botskey.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was
A Pair of Upsets: How many of you had Wagner winning at Pittsburgh? The Seahawks won their first game against a ranked team since P.J. Carlesimo was the head coach at the school in the late 1970’s, knocking off the Panthers 59-54. Even without point guard Tray Woodall, this is not a game Pittsburgh should have lost. While Ashton Gibbs certainly has to carry more of the load, his shooting has been sub-par this entire season. Against Wagner, the senior Big East Preseason POY shot 5-16 from the floor and 1-7 from deep, dropping his field goal percentage to 37.7% on the year. Usually one of the most efficient teams in the country, Pittsburgh was held to a stunning 89.2 efficiency rating against Wagner. Previously, Pitt’s season low had been 101.7 in a win over La Salle. Last Monday, LSU surprised Marquette in Baton Rouge, downing the previously undefeated Golden Eagles by a score of 67-59. While LSU isn’t an awful team, Marquette allowed the Tigers to shoot 53.5% for the game, something that has to concern Buzz Williams given how well Marquette has played defensively. If Marquette wants to contend for a conference title, it has to defend night in and night out.
Non-Conference Play Winds Down: There are 152 games remaining with Big East teams involved and 144 of those (94.7%) will be conference games. Four of the eight remaining non-conference games will take place over the coming week, so you can bet we here at RTC are more than ready to transition into conference play. As we head into the new calendar year, four Big East teams seem to be contenders while another four or five are in contention for NCAA bids. The bottom of the conference is broader and weaker than usual, with at least four and possibly six teams incapable of mounting a run at a bid. As to who wins the league (my poll question above), I am sticking with my preseason pick of Syracuse. The Orange go a legitimate ten deep and, while they do not have a superstar, they are strong defensively and play with great energy. Connecticut may be more talented and Louisville may play harder, but Syracuse is the best team in my estimation. I would love to hear the readers’ take (on this or anything else) in the poll above or in the comments section below.
Bob Huggins Wins His 700th Game: It took a crazy Gary Browne three-pointer to force overtime, but West Virginia was able to knock off Missouri State on Thursday night for Coach Huggins’ 700th career victory. He’s now in select company with the likes of Lefty Driesell, Lute Olson, Lou Henson, Henry Iba, Phog Allen and, Norm Stewart in the 700 club. Currently 58 years old and under contract with West Virginia through the 2018-19 season, Huggins has a chance to approach 900 wins if he stays healthy. After winning #700, he joins Jim Boeheim and Jim Calhoun as the only active Big East coaches to win at least 700 games. He is fourth on the active list of all-time wins, trailing his two Big East peers as well as Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski.
The Hoyas Have Outperformed Preseason Projections Thanks To Two Wins Over Memphis And A Big Road Victory In Tuscaloosa. (Richard Lipski/AP)
Power Rankings
Syracuse (13-0) – Among many other things, Syracuse has done a terrific job in turnover margin. The Orange lead the Big East by a wide margin in that department and rank in the top ten nationally in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Fueled by Dion Waiters off the bench, the Syracuse transition attack has been sensational. Big East play begins this week with a visit from upstart Seton Hall followed by a trip to DePaul. Surprisingly, Syracuse was out-rebounded by Tulane, including 15-9 on the offensive glass. This week: 12/28 vs. Seton Hall, 1/1 @ DePaul.
Louisville (12-0) – It hasn’t been easy, but Louisville just keeps winning. The Cardinals trailed Charleston and Western Kentucky this week before putting those teams away late in the game. Against Charleston, Rick Pitino made a great adjustment late in the game by putting the more versatile Kyle Kuric at the free throw line to attack the Charleston zone instead of Gorgui Dieng. Dieng still had a great week, going for 14/12 against the Cougars and 13/15 against the Hilltoppers. Louisville ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency, but its offense continues to be a work in progress. As I said in this spot last week, the longer the Cardinals can keep winning before getting their roster back to full strength, the better. This week offers a huge test against two teams that can really put the ball in the basket. This week: 12/28 vs. #15 Georgetown, 12/31 @ #2 Kentucky. Read the rest of this entry »
And the trainwreck continues in Stillwater. Oklahoma State point guard Reger Dowell has announced his decision to transfer, leaving the Cowboys with only one player to man the position. Remember, Fred Gulley already transferred earlier this month, so freshman Cezar Guerrero will now assume the reins. Senior Keiton Page has also apparently seen some time at the point in practice, and that’s part of the reason why Dowell may have left. His decision is interesting considering he said just last week that he would try to “stick things out” at OSU. That’s not going to happen, however, and Travis Ford better cross his fingers that nobody else leaves.
What do you know about Baylor’s Brady Heslip? Before a few weeks ago, even us sharp minds at the RTC Big 12 Microsite could have only told you a handful of things. He’s a guard who transferred from Boston College. And, well, that was about it. But Heslip is certainly on our radar now, as he won Big 12 Rookie of the Week honors by lighting up the scoreboard in Las Vegas in Bear wins over St. Mary’s and West Virginia. It wasn’t even apparent whether or not Heslip would get major minutes this season after his transfer from BC, but he’s already become an integral part of this Baylor backcourt.
Surprise, surprise: Frank Martin‘s Kansas State team is surging, and it most recently swept the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii during Christmas weekend. Without Jacob Pullen, it was easy for bonehead writers like us to write off the Wildcats, but at this point in his program, Martin has established a culture of winning in Manhattan. No matter who is on the roster, Martin finds a way to win, and he does so by pushing his team’s buttons to play hard and smart basketball. This year, Will Spradling has found his calling as the point guard position, Rodney McGruder has learned how to take over games, and Thomas Gipson and Angel Rodriguez have been immediate contributors as freshmen. This team still has work to do in Big 12 play, but Martin has to be in the running for Big 12 Coach of the Year at this point.
Lon Kruger may be a candidate for that honor as well, but that’s not what we’re talking about with OU basketball this morning. Instead, it’s James Fraschilla, an Oklahoma freshman and son of commentator Fran Fraschilla, making news with a bunch of cool trick shots. The video he created was so absurd that some believed it wasn’t real. However, Fraschilla says none of the video is fabricated, and the trick shots all did indeed occur. And the best part of the two-minute video? It’s also a ploy for charity, so everybody wins here.
The Realignment Apocalypse is over now, and it’s time to reflect on what could have been for Texas in particular. According to this article, had UT left for the “Pac-16,” it could have taken a major financial hit. Instead, the school will make almost $20 million dollars in the Big 12 this year, and it still has rights to the multi-million dollar Longhorn Network. There’s always a chance Texas — or any other school for the matter — could still bolt from the league, but the Longhorns seem to be in a pretty beneficial position here in the Big 12.
Mississippi received a nice present under the tree as forward Murphy Holloway‘s MRI revealed that his injury against Middle Tennessee State University was only a bad high ankle sprain. Andy Kennedy said that Holloway can return to practice as soon as he regains “strength and mobility.” Kennedy and the Rebels will need Holloway back as soon as possible. Holloway is the team’s leading rebounder with 9.6 rebounds per game, and he adds in 9.9 points. The Rebs have lost their last two games in a row, and hit the road to face a tough Dayton team that already knocked off Alabama earlier in the year.
Mississippi State freshman Rodney Hood may not have come in with the hype that many SEC freshmen had, but his play is making quite the statement. Hood has come along quickly averaging 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He has focused his practice on mid-range jumpers and it shows. Hood has connected on 62% of his two point field goals this year. “The first part of the season, I was just finding my way,” Hood said. “Now I’m coming into my own.” Rick Stansbury obviously likes what he sees as Hood leads the team in minutes at 33.2 minutes per game.
Georgia has struggled in the second half of games this year, blowing halftime leads against Colorado, Cincinnati, and Georgia Tech. Just when it looked like the Bulldogs may let another lead slip out of their grasp, the players dug a little deeper to put together a non-conference win against Furman. “Our team executed very well tonight,” coach Mark Fox said. Freshman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope stepped up big, showing a major display of leadership. “I realized that we were starting to slack on defense,” Caldwell-Pope said. “So I just tried to help my team by creating steals, help on the drive, and rebound and I did that.” Georgia will need more than just Caldwell-Pope to step up though. The Bulldogs have struggled on offense (131st in adjusted offensive efficiency) with only one other player averaging double figures in scoring (senior Gerald Robinson at 13.6 PPG).
Patric Young is a freak of nature. We all know that, right? But did you see his block on Thursday night? It is clear that Young is beginning to turn some heads with his tremendous play as of late. It is clear that he is a much better player this year than the developing freshman that averaged 3.4 points and 3.8 rebounds per game last year. Sometimes, a SportsCenter type highlight is all we need to remind us of that. “Whenever you block somebody’s shot and pull it down with one hand, that’s making ‘SportsCenter,'” Young said. Yes, it will. The highlight reels are nice, but I think Billy Donovan will be more impressed with Young connecting on 63.3% effective field goal percentage, and snagging a solid 11.6 offensive rebounding percentage. Those numbers should lead to Young getting more than the 18.9% of shots (sixth on the team) that he takes in the Florida offense.
LSU‘s play of late is putting the team in good company. The last time a Tigers’ team won three road wins in non-conference play was 1985-86. You may remember that LSU team was the lowest seeded team at the time (#11 — now tied with VCU and George Mason) to go to a Final Four. The Tigers have won on the road against Houston, Rutgers, and North Texas. Defense has been the key to the Tigers’ successful run. LSU has held six straight opponents under 60 points, in what is believed to be the first time since the 1952-53 Tigers held six straight teams under 60. This team also has a couple of bad losses to go with those wins — a loss at Coastal Carolina and at home against South Alabama. Which version of Trent Johnson‘s squad will show up when the Tigers get the opportunity for quality RPI games against Virginia, Ole Miss, and Alabama in the next two and a half weeks will be a big determinant in how successful the Tigers are this season.
Washington Post: The big news this weekend comes from Virginia as K.T. Harrell and James Johnson have both decided to transfer. Johnson was a redshirt freshman who saw very little playing time, but Harrell was a key rotation player who waged a fairly successful freshman campaign, routinely knocking down big shots from beyond the arc and starting 15 games. Harrell, however, has struggled on offense this season and has seen his minutes drop. Both players cited a lack of playing time as the reason for transferring. Coach Tony Bennett doesn’t seem very concerned with these decisions, noting that transfers are becoming more common and that he’s had at least one player leave his program every year that he’s been a head coach. While Bennett might be unworried, at least one player transferring every year probably seems too high for Virginia’s fans.
Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow has some interesting speculation about the rapid fire re-commitment and then de-commitment of Torian Graham. Apparently, while Graham definitely wants to play for North Carolina State, someone else is preventing him from doing so. He brings up the oft-discussed possibility that the Wolfpack is waiting to make sure that Graham meets the necessary academic qualifications to play college basketball, but he also brings up a more insidious theory where a relative, hanger-on, or handler is pushing Graham to sign with a more high-profile program. While this theory doesn’t yet have any hard confirmation, it’s an intriguing story. Hopefully, it’s not true.
Washington Times: On Friday, Pe’Shon Howard made his season debut for Maryland. Howard has been out with a broken foot, but played 30 minutes against Radford. The return of the talented guard is a huge boost for the Terrapins who haven’t yet seen the kind of stellar play they had been expecting of freshman guard Nick Faust. The Saturday reinstatement of freshman big man Alex Len is expected to be another significant gain for Maryland. Len has been serving an NCAA suspension related to his time playing with a professional club in the Ukraine.
Soaring to Glory: It’s been a rough year for Boston College fans, and it doesn’t look like things are going to get any easier. Soaring to Glory breaks down the remaining Eagles schedule and tries to predict how may games this team can actually win. Spoiler Alert: Not many.
Tobacco Road Blues: Chanukkah is nearly over, but it’s not too late to acknowledge the proud tradition of Jewish basketball at Duke and North Carolina. While Jon Scheyer gets the first spot on this list, the great Lennie Rosenbluth is probably the greatest son of David to play in the rivalry: In case you’re unfamiliar with the name, Rosenbluth averaged 28 PPG during the Tar Heels’ undefeated 1957 season, capped off by a triple-overtime victory over Wilt Chamberlain’s Kansas team.
Posted by Patrick Prendergast on December 27th, 2011
We ate. We drank. We were merry. We took some TUMS and are back. Hope everyone had a happy and safe holiday weekend.
While we are not necessarily looking at marquee matchups, Big East conference play kicks off tonight and that is a good thing! There are two games on the docket this evening to get things started and despite a lack of glitter, there is intrigue. #22 Pittsburgh (11-2) heads to South Bend, Indiana, to take on Notre Dame (8-5). The Tim Abromaitis-less Irish would love a signature victory to get things rolling but this one may end up occurring game late as the Panthers will not be in letdown mode after getting beaten by Wagner at home last Friday. The other contest features two squads looking to answer questions as St. John’s (6-5) hosts Providence (11-2). The Red Storm have battled on and off the court from the sudden departure of guard Nurideen Lindsey to head coach Steve Lavin’s recovery from prostate cancer. They are a young team and hope the second semester addition of talented freshman Amir Garrett gives them a boost in conference play. The Friars are feeling good at 11-2 under first-year head coach Ed Cooley, but know the competition is going to increase dramatically as league action begins. Although Cooley was not around Providence the last couple of years, it is a virtual certainty he will be reminding his crew of their back-to-back four win Big East campaigns often as this year progresses. The new tag for Friar point guard Vincent Council is “underrated.” Maybe if enough people call him underrated he will get sufficient attention so as to not be any longer. There is no predicting the result of this game, but one thing you can bet on is that the Red Storm will not be sleeping on ‘VC’, and that the growing chip on Council’s shoulder does not bode well for opposing defenders.
As noted above, Big East play begins tonight but this week also brings some notable non-conference matchups involving Big East teams. #10 Florida heads north to battle Rutgers at the RAC in a game that features a couple of notable Big East connections. Florida’s Mike Rosario is a 1,000 point scorer… at Rutgers. Rosario transferred to the Gators and it was certainly understandable he would be looking forward to facing his old team, but it appears he will not be able to play due to a nagging back injury. Florida head coach Billy Donovan has tremendous Big East memories as he led Providence to the 1987 Final Four while playing for Rick Pitino. Cincinnati, who has taken out their aggression on soft assortment of cream pies since brawling with cross-town rival Xavier a couple of weeks ago, will face a test when they host Oklahoma. Marquette faces an SEC rubber match when they host Vanderbilt on Friday. The Golden Eagles beat Mississippi in the Big East – SEC challenge in November and then lost to Louisiana State last week. Finally, in the main event, #4 Louisville will travel to Lexington to take on bitter in-state rival and #3 ranked Kentucky on Saturday. Both teams play on Wednesday but while Kentucky fattens up against Lamar, Louisville will have to stay focused against #12 Georgetown.
The Big East is back with its weekly honors and West Virginia’s Kevin Jones has earned last week’s Player of the Week award. Jones, who now leads the Big East in scoring (21.0 PPG) and rebounding (11.9 RPG), put up beastly numbers (23.0 PPG, 14.7 RPG) in a 2-1 week for the Mountaineers including a career-high 28 points to go with 17 boards in a loss to Baylor. Once again, Connecticut’s Andre Drummond is the Big East Rookie of the Week. Drummond had 16 points, nine rebounds, four steals and two blocks in UConn’s lone game, a 79-71 victory over in-state foe Fairfield. This is Drummond’s second consecutive Rookie of the Week honor, and third for the season. Weekly Honor Roll recipients: Notre Dame forward Jack Cooley on the merits of his 19-point, eight-rebound performance in a drubbing of Sacred Heart; Providence guard Vincent Council who averaged 16 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in Friar victories over New Hampshire and in-state rival Rhode Island; Louisville forward Kyle Kuric who averaged 16.0 points and five assists in two wins, including 17 points and eight rebounds in the Cardinals’ seven-point win over the College of Charleston; Connecticut guard Shabazz Napier who netted 24 points to go with five assists and six rebounds in the Fairfield win and Seton Hall guard Jordan Theodore who averaged 20.0 points and seven assists in a 2-0 week for the Pirates, including a season-high 26 points versus Longwood. In related news, Seton Hall’s Herb Pope was not among the honorees for the first time this season.
The polls are out this week and as expected Marquette and Pittsburgh slipped in the rankings due to losses suffered last week. Marquette (11-1) dropped four spots to #14 as it lost for the first time this year, a 67-59 defeat on the road against Louisiana State. Pittsburgh (11-2) plummeted from #15 to #22 on the heels of its 59-54 upset loss at home to Wagner. Syracuse (13-0) kept it rolling and remained the nation’s top team. Georgetown (10-1) showed some upward mobility as it beat Memphis for the second time this year and leaped four spots to #12. Louisville (12-0) is still undefeated and #4 as it gets ready for the previously mentioned home showdown against Georgetown on Wednesday. It should also be noted that the Cardinals garnered two first place votes this week. Connecticut (10-1) held off a second half surge from Fairfield that the pollsters apparently did not like as the Huskies slipped a notch to #9.
With the ascension of Harvard from an also-ran into a borderline top 25 and the 2010 Sweet 16 run of Cornell it has become apparent that Ivy League is no longer the pushover it once was on the basketball court. For years, many have cited the conference’s rule against athletic scholarships as a reason for their poor performance against other schools in major sports, but it appears like the schools have found a way around that restriction by offering “substantially enhanced financial aid for all admitted students”. While this decision affects individuals coming from economically disadvantaged backgrounds regardless of athletic ability and could lead to significant societal change down the road, the immediate impact is being felt in sports where Ivy League teams are less handicapped as they can offer financial aid packages that are not too far from what an athletic scholarship would offer. While some question what are felt to be reduced academic standards for admissions for many of these athletes, in theory the decision to allow for these increased financial aid package should be an effective one as long as athletic programs do not compromise too much on the basic mission of their schools.
It looks like Jamie Dixon may be getting a late Christmas present as he announced yesterday that Tray Woodall would be a a game-time decision tonight against Notre Dame. Woodall, who leads the team with 8.3 assists per game, has been out for five games so far with an abdominal injury and his return would be big for a team that has struggled at times this year including an embarrassing five-point loss on Friday at home against Wagner. Fortunately, Pittsburgh has played an easy schedule so far this season and will not face a ranked team until January 14, which means they should have a solid record heading into the most difficult part of their conference schedule.
Many fans worry about how their favorite team will fare at this time of year with the distractions of final exams and Christmas. When teams lose their fans often attribute it to those distractions and it has become such an ingrained part of college sports that most fans and many in the media point to it as the primary reason when a ranked team loses. John Ezekowitz decided to take a look at this often-cited phenomenon and found some interesting results based on how favored home teams perform against the spread at this time of year, which is probably reasonable way to account for the variable strength of opponents. As he points out the results are subject to some manipulation like Las Vegas lowering lines to account for this reported effect, but it is still an interesting result.
We are barely past Christmas, but Ken Pomeroy is already ready to start giving you the likelihood that each team will win their conference. Of course, being one of college basketball’s foremost sabermetricians Ken is not content just to pull numbers out of thin air (or other places). Instead, he uses Monte Carlo simulations based on his statistical analysis so far this season. Basically what he is doing is simulating each conference season 10,000 times under varying conditions (set by Pomeroy) and takes what happens on average in those 10,000 conference seasons. As the first part of this season’s project, Pomeroy unveils the six least competitive conference races. Five out of the six he lists are not surprising and we probably could have told you that they would be the least competitive conference races off the top of our heads (think very good teams in very bad conferences), but the fifth least competitive conference is a little surprising to us. As we say with all prediction models, you need to be cognizant of the inputs as they can lead to drastically different results than you would expect. In this case, those inputs would be teams that you think are significantly overvalued or undervalued by Pomeroy’s analysis.
One piece of news from the weekend that we forgot to mention in yesterday’s Morning Five was the death of Chicago prep power broker McGlother “Mac” Irvin, who created the nationally known Mac Irvin Fire basketball team that has featured some of the best high school players from Chicago over the past 20 years. Irvin, who worked as an executive for Xerox until 1992 before setting up his basketball club was one of the most well-known figures on the high school basketball circuit. Irvin’s death on Christmas Eve from complications of diabetes mellitus will be felt throughout the Chicago basketball scene and his memorial services on Thursday and Friday should be a veritable “Who’s Who” of Chicago high school basketball.
Rice Upsets Texas A&M; Kazemi Records 36th Career Double-Double: The conference had arguably its best night of the season on Thursday, posting a 6-2 overall record, which was highlighted by Rice’s 65-58 upset victory over Texas A&M at College Station. Junior forward Arsalan Kazemi led Rice with 10 points and 13 rebounds, recording his ninth double-double of the season and 36th of his career, as the Owls snapped the Aggies’ 80-game regular season, non-conference home win streak. Kazemi is now six double-doubles shy of the conference record. The junior carried the scoring load in his sophomore season, but has found help this season from fellow junior Tamir Jackson and senior Lucas Kuipers.
Tulane Drops Second Game, Falling to Syracuse: The conference’s only losses Thursday night came against ranked competition. Tulane took on #1 Syracuse, losing 80-61 in a lopsided contest. However, the team’s trio of top scorers KendallTimmons, Jordan Callahan and Ricky Tarrant were not shut out, combining for 41 points. Timmons was the top performer, scoring 16 points and grabbing eight rebounds.
Memphis’ Continues To Tumble: The high-powered Memphis Tiger offense was contained and exposed on Thursday night when it faced the #16 Georgetown Hoyas, falling 70-59. Despite averaging 80 points a contest, Memphis was held in check throughout the game, which has become a trend when the Tigers take on tougher competition. Sophomore guard Will Barton continued his fantastic play, contributing a double-double in the losing effort. Barton finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds, but fellow sophomore Chris Crawford led the team with 17 points. Barton currently leads the conference in scoring with an average of 19.9 points per game, which is more than two points higher than UCF’s Marcus Jordan, who is second in scoring.
UTEP Builds Mo’ In Hawaii: In the first game of the Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic, UTEP had a chance to make a statement and did, dominating Clemson. The Miners walked away with a 61-48 victory, following a 23-8 run during the game’s final 13 minutes. The Tigers recorded a lone field goal during that span. With the win, UTEP improves to .500 for the first time this season. Though they fell to the streaking Wildcats in the semifinal game, UTEP bounced back in the consolation round, holding off Auburn 83-76. The Miners are streaking at the right time, winners of four of their last five. Sophomore guard Michael Perez is finally filling the void left by Randy Culpepper, as he averaged over 17 points per game in the Diamond Head Classic.
Marcus Jordan Is Second In Conference USA In Scoring And The Knights Boast Two Of The League's Top Five Point-Scorers (Credit: Chris Schubert).
Power Rankings
Tulane (11-2): The Green Wave suffered its second loss of the season on Thursday night, but they take a lot of experience away from facing the top-ranked team in the country. Tulane is the best defensive team in conference, allowing only 55.1 points a night. In comparison, the league’s worst defensive team, Memphis, allows 74.3 points per night. Kendall Timmons has found a long-term running partner in freshman Ricky Tarrant, who has blossomed into a star in the early part of this season.
Southern Miss (10-2): It’s hard to pick nits on a team that has won six in a row. Southern Miss has emerged as one of the best teams in conference because they play complete team basketball. Lacking a consistent top performer, the Golden Eagles have relied on several players to make plays. A lot of credit goes to the Golden Eagles seniors such as Darnell Dodson and Maurice Bolden, who each recorded a double-double in Thursday night’s win over South Florida. Read the rest of this entry »
