Most probably expected a routine and mundane news conference from Louisville coach Rick Pitino before Wednesday’s showdown with #12 Georgetown. Instead, Pitino gave reporters perhaps the biggest news story of Louisville’s season to date when he announced that he wouldn’t coach anymore once his contract runs out after the 2016-2017 season. For now, the statement is just that — a statement — and Pitino will have plenty of time to reconsider if he so chooses, but one has to wonder why Pitino decided to break that news now with his team undefeated and conference play set to begin. No one will blame him if he decides to retire, after all, he will be in his mid-60’s with very little left to prove as a coach, but this will have a negative recruiting impact if Louisville doesn’t have a succession plan in place or Pitino doesn’t change his mind. I doubt it will become a distraction in the near future, but keep an eye on this story because it will be a big deal as his contract nears its end.
Connecticut begins conference play tomorrow as well when they square off with cellar-dwelling South Florida. The difference is that while the Cardinals won’t have Pitino on the bench in six seasons, the Huskies won’t have coach Jim Calhoun on the bench tomorrow — albeit only for a short period of time. Assistant coach George Blaney will take over Wednesday as Calhoun begins his three-game suspension for his role in the school’s violations during its recruitment of Nate Miles. Blaney is no stranger to replacing Calhoun for short stints and is 7-8 in his career as acting head coach of the Huskies, but it will be up to the players and how well they listen to the assistants to determine how much influence Blaney has. The good news is that, in addition to the Bulls, UConn starts conference play with Seton Hall and St. John’s, so its not as if the Huskies will play a challenging schedule without their head coach, but it will be interesting to watch nonetheless.
One of our favorite sources for Syracuse information, The Juice, came up with five questions facing the Orange as they prepare to enter conference play and I would like to focus on one of them in particular. The first question is about the team’s center play and whether or not hyped sophomore Fab Melo can continue to show improvement against tougher competition. It’s a question worth asking given Melo’s marked improvements against inferior opponents, but I think the answer is a pretty simple yes. Frankly, Syracuse doesn’t need much out of Melo. They just need good interior defense and rebounding. If Melo can continue to protect the rim, rebound the basketball, and chip in when needed offensively, Syracuse is in great shape for a deep NCAA Tournament run.
The story is somewhat old, but combining a hometown hero storyline with a walk-on underdog storyline is good enough to make the Morning Five no matter how late we catch it. West Virginia freshman walk-on Paul Williamson is getting some serious playing time on a very competitive Mountaineers’ team. Fans probably shouldn’t expect Williamson to become a regular contributor, but his shooting ability and poise allow Bob Huggins to play him until he can no longer hide the freshman’s defensive deficiencies. Will this be a story to watch all season long? Probably not because Williamson isn’t likely to get a lot of playing time in crucial moments, but for a local freshman on a team with NCAA Tournament aspirations to be getting meaningful playing time at this point in the season is a feel-good story for anyone who loves college basketball.
Yahoo! released its Top Five college basketball stories from 2011 and I agree with all them, but don’t agree with the placement. I understand why the author picked Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski becoming the winningest coach in Division I basketball as the top story, but with all due respect, there is simply no way a coach winning a lot of games is a bigger story than what has transpired at Syracuse since the start of the season. Coach K’s record is a nice story and a good pick for the top story if we are looking for a feel-good ending to a trying year, but the Bernie Fine saga dwarfs the record in terms of newsworthiness and importance on a larger scale. I am as sick of the Fine scandal as much as the next man, but his alleged abuse and that of former Penn State football coach Jerry Sandusky are the most important stories in college sports period. They just have too many ramifications for it not to be at the top.
One of the primary criticisms of the NCAA in Taylor Branch’s piece in The Atlantic was that student-athletes were only given one-year renewable scholarships that could be pulled due to factors not related to their academic performance such as injury, poor on-field performance, or a change in coaching regime that leads to the student-athlete’s athletic skillset to be less desirable. To counter that the NCAA proposed that individuals be eligible for multiyear scholarships, but more than 75 schools have objected to the proposal meaning that the proposal will go in front of the NCAA’s Board of Directors next month where it will be reevaluated. The primary criticisms offered by the objecting schools was that they wanted to keep athletic scholarships in the same format as most scholarships at the school (renewed annually) and that multiyear scholarships would create bidding wars between competing schools. While we can see some reasoning in those arguments when you combine it with their earlier opposition to cost of living stipends the schools appear to be unwilling to give student-athletes any concessions in the latest round of negotiations.
When your team starts 1-11 one of the positive things you can say is that things cannot get much worse, but for Rhode Island it appears like things will get worse after they dismissed Jamal Wilson, their leading scorer, from the team after violating undisclosed team rules. Even before Wilson’s dismissal it seemed possible that the Rams might not win more than a handful of their remaining games. Now with Wilson gone it is a distinct possibility that they might not win another game this season. Using Ken Pomeroy’s rating system, the only two games that they have greater than a 40% predicted chance of winning are against a terrible Fordham squad. Without Wilson they might still be favored in their game at home against Fordham, but will be hard pressed to win any other games.
Drew Cannon of Basketball Prospectus analyzed the intense discussion surrounding Luke Winn’s power rankings two weeks ago. In those power rankings, which we discussed in our Morning Five the following day (see point #2), Winn pointed out that based on points allowed per possession Kentucky actually appeared to be a slightly better defensive team with Anthony Davis on the bench than when he is on the court. As we noted that day, the decision by some people to use that statistic to question the use of all advanced statistics was myopic. Given the additional space of a whole post rather than a single Morning Five bullet, Cannon goes into additional detail about what happens in situations like these and what we would consider a reasonable way to handle these situations.
With schools on holiday break a number of players are reconsidering their situation within their program and opting to make a break from their current situation. The most recent of these is Illinois sophomore guard Crandall Head, the younger brother of former Illini star Luther Head, who has decided to transfer. Unlike his brother, Crandall has had minimal impact at the school and was averaging just 1 point, 0.6 rebounds, and 1 assist in 9.2 minutes per game. According to the school’s press release, he has not listed any schools that he is considering transferring to, but that he wants to go “somewhere they play my style of game and get a fresh start”. We are not sure which schools he is considering, but it may be instructive to look at the schools he was considering when he was being recruited in high school.
Finally, Rick Pitino announced yesterday that he would not coach after the 2016-17 season. You might expect that we would lead our post with this, but we don’t believe that Pitino will actually retire at that time and if he does it will not be because of something he mentioned at press conference more than five years earlier. It does raise a few interesting questions with the first and most obvious being who would be Pitino’s successor at Louisville. The most interesting (or at least most nepotistic) choice would be his son Richard Pitino, but there will be no shortage of successful mid-major coaches and high-level assistants looking for their big break when Pitino does decide to retire. The other more immediate question is how Pitino expects to succeed as a recruiter in a few years when every other coach in America will be whispering to his recruits that they will never get to play for Pitino because he will step down before they graduate.
With the holiday season in full swing, last week’s slate of games did not significantly alter the Top 25. Syracuse remains perched atop the rankings with Ohio State and Kentucky lurking close behind. In fact, there was virtually no movement in the Top 10 at all. One team that continues to spiral downward thanks to suspensions following the Crosstown Brawl is Xavier, who was once a legitimate Top 10 team, but now sits at #20. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…
It’s been a relatively quiet week around the Mountain West as teams took a bit of a break to celebrate the holidays. However, despite just eight games in the past week, we’ve had three fairly significant injuries. Boise State was the team hardest hit, as it lost freshman wing Igor Hadziomerovic to a broken foot and will likely play the rest of the season without him, while fellow freshman Anthony Drmic, the team’s leading scorer, missed the Broncos’ visit to Iowa with a sprained ankle. Meanwhile, Air Force lost is leading scorer, Michael Lyons, early in its visit to Spokane to face Gonzaga to a sprained ankle of his own. He never returned to a game in which the Falcons possibly could have challenged the Bulldogs, and the worst-case scenario for Lyons is not a good one. Since he sustained a high-ankle sprain, he could miss as many as six weeks, but a lot depends on how he reacts. It is possible he could be back as soon as this weekend, but ideally he would be back by January 14 when the Falcons travel to Boise State to open the conference season.
Another prominent MW player missed a game this week for a different reason, however, as New Mexico’s Kendall Williams sat out the Lobos’ Thursday game against UMKC as punishment from head coach Steve Alford for a poor academic fall semester. Williams is not in any way academically ineligible, and certainly the Lobos did just fine without him against middling competition, but give credit to Alford for laying down the law.
Team of the Week
UNLV – The Runnin’ Rebels take this honor down for the second straight week on the strength of its demolition of California on Friday. UNLV used a 31-12 run to close the first half to build a 20-point halftime lead, then led by as many as 27 in the second half before coasting home to a 17-point win. Anthony Marshall led the way in style with 22 points, nine rebounds, and three steals, while Oscar Bellfield handed out 11 assists and the Rebels dominated every facet of the game. UNLV still has to travel to Hawaii and Cal State Bakersfield in their non-conference (along with hosting Central Arkansas), but if everything holds up, they should enter conference play with a 16-2 record, including wins over North Carolina, Illinois and California and a good shot at a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Dorian Green Had A Career Game For CSU Against Northern Colorado, Knocking Down Eight Threes (photo credit: Sam Noblett, The Rocky Mountain Collegian)
Player of the Week
Dorian Green, Jr, Colorado State – Green caught absolute fire Thursday night for the Rams, hitting eight-of-ten three-pointers and 11-of-16 from the field while exploding for a career-high 36 points in a win over Northern Colorado. After an excellent freshman season in Fort Collins, Green took a step back last season, seeing his scoring and shooting numbers take a healthy dip. But in his third season, Green has been rock-solid shooting the ball, hitting 58.7% of his three-point attempts this year. He’s also picked up his rebounding numbers for the third year running, (even adding his first-career double-digit rebounding game against Duke a couple weeks back) while helping out with the ballhandling duties and providing an explosive offensive threat in a Ram backcourt made up of multiple excellent shooters.
No matter how established the program, every college basketball coach eventually takes a chance on a transfer. Jim Boeheim, for example, plucked Wesley Johnson from Iowa State and turned him into the Big East Player of the Year in 2009-10. Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski’s current rosters both include transfers with Brandon Wood (Valparaiso) and Seth Curry (Liberty), and in 1979, a former Indiana Hoosier named Larry Bird nearly won a title with Indiana State just a few years after quitting basketball (and Bob Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers) altogether.
Hoiberg and Haith Are Recruiting Transfers Heavily to Their Programs
Normally, coaches take one or two transfers at a time to fill immediate holes, but that’s not everybody’s philosophy. Meet Missouri’s Frank Haith and Iowa State’s Fred Hoiberg, a pair of coaches who have abandoned traditional recruiting methods at their new schools in favor of Division I transfers. Haith, hired in April to replace Mike Anderson, is using three open scholarships in 2011-12 on players who will not appear in a single basketball game this season by signing Keion Bell (Pepperdine), Earnest Ross (Auburn) and Jabari Brown (Oregon). Hoiberg, on the other hand, has four transfers on his roster in his second year with the Cyclones: Chris Allen (Michigan State), Chris Babb (Penn State), Royce White (Minnesota), and Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois). The two coaches have energized their fan bases by signing big names from major schools, but Haith and Hoiberg’s recruiting tactics cannot be accurately judged at this point. Iowa State’s Fab Four will begin Big 12 play next month, and Missouri’s three transfers will not all be eligible until December 2012.
Instead of speculating as to whether the two teams will suffer from dreaded chemistry problems with so many transfers, why not crunch the numbers to see if The Transfer Effect really exists? Although finding aggregate data for Division I transfers is virtually impossible, recent anecdotal evidence shows that the recruiting strategy is an enormous risk for both coaches. Seven teams from both the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons welcomed three or more transfers to their programs at the same time, and only two teams (San Diego State and UNLV) finished above .500 in league play. Seton Hall, the only power conference team in the group, missed the NCAA Tournament.
Steve Fetch is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12. You can also find his musings online at Rock Chalk Talk or on Twitter @fetch9.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was
Kansas Gets Exposed: For the second time in the last four years, Kansas suffered a surprising defeat to an overmatched team in Kansas City. This year’s victor was Davidson, who led nearly all game en route to an 80-74 upset over the Jayhawks. It was the third game this season where Kansas was held under a point per possession. This team might be the worst offensive team Bill Self has fielded at Kansas: there’s no real go-to guy like Marcus Morris, and the Jayhawks don’t have the three-point shooters to keep defenses from collapsing on Thomas Robinson in the middle. The turnovers are also an even bigger problem than last season, without the ability to score nearly at will to compensate.
Undefeated Squads Hold Serve: Both of the undefeated teams in the league narrowly retained that status, with Missouri trying valiantly to give Illinois the Braggin Rights game and Baylor doing the same with West Virginia. Frank Haith’s team won a rare close game, eking out a 78-74 win, and Baylor narrowly defeated West Virginia 83-81 in overtime, after which Mountaineer coach Bob Hugginshad a rare instance of losing his cool.
Kansas State scored a tournament win over the weekend, downing Long Beach State on Christmas night to win the Diamond Head Classic. Angel Rodriguez was the star of the tournament, scoring 17 and 16 in the first two games. Rodney McGruder more than picked up his slack in the championship against Long Beach, scoring 28 on 10-11 shooting. Kansas State now has a pair of good wins in the non-conference season and look like they will be in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid.
The Wildcats Have Plenty of Souvenirs To Bring Home After Winning The Diamond Head Classic. (AP)
Power Rankings
Because the marquee non conference games are virtually over, this week, I thought I’d grade the teams. I’m grading on a curve, so an A for Missouri isn’t the same as one for Kansas State.
Missouri (12-0) – Grade: A. Missouri is 12-0 and while I am still not sure about Frank Haith for the long haul, he has to get credit for coming to Missouri and not changing anything. He recognized what he had in Marcus Denmon, Kim English, and Phil Pressey and let them be who they are. Haith’s Miami teams regularly played games where the pace lingered in the low-to-mid-60s , but this year Missouri is at 70.5 trips per game, basically right in line with where it has been the past three seasons.
Kansas (8-3) – Grade: A-. Kansas sits only at 8-3, but actually are the highest-rated Big 12 team in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings at 8, one spot ahead of Missouri and two ahead of Baylor. Some of that is due to beating a Jared Sullinger-less Ohio State, but a bigger factor has been Kansas’s stifling defense, which has held opponents to just 39.6% shooting from inside the arc. A year after losing two lottery picks and the very solid Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed, not to mention second-round pick Josh Selby, Bill Self is in the midst of maybe his best coaching job yet. Read the rest of this entry »
Michael Vernetti is the RTC correspondent for the West Coast Conference.
Reader’s Take
Looking Back
Kevin Pangos and the Zags Are Ready to Pursue #12
Gonzaga (9-2) completed its pre-WCC season out of conference schedule (still a December 31 game against Xavier in Cincinnati to go) on a roll, dispatching Oral Roberts (67-61), Arizona (71-60), Butler (71-55) and Air Force (70-60) at home, to get ready for an attempt at a 12th straight WCC title beginning on Wednesday against struggling Portland. The Zags have apparently settled on an all-freshman starting backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr., and why shouldn’t they considering how the newcomers have performed so far? Pangos capped off his initial slate of college games by dropping 23 points on Air Force. With a solid rotation, a consistent front line and new energy in the back court, the Zags are ready.
BYU (10-3) barely lost its chance to post a big upset against 6th/7th-ranked Baylor, losing 86-83 after a spirited game marked by the debut of guard Matt Carlino. Carlino, sitting out an imposed benching following his transfer from UCLA, scored 18 points against Baylor in 22 minutes of action, then followed up with 10 points in a Cougar win over Buffalo (93-78), and 22 points in an 89-75 rout of UC Santa Barbara. A mostly-veteran team like Gonzaga, BYU is ready for its initial WCC season with its rotation solidified and only one injured player, 6’8″ junior forward Stephen Rogers, who hurt his knee in practice before the Baylor game.
Saint Mary’s (11-2) missed a chance to garner a signature win when it, too, fell to Baylor 72-59 on a neutral court in Las Vegas. The Gaels bounced back on the next night, however, dispatching Missouri Valley Conference contender Missouri State 77-61 behind emerging post man Brad Waldow (17 points). Coach Randy Bennett’s goal in the preseason was to settle on the center position, and he seems to have done that with Waldow’s performance in the Las Vegas Classic tournament, for which he was named to the all-tournament team. Waldow will alternate in the post with junior Mitchell Young and senior Kenton Walker II, but all other Gael positions are set with veterans. Senior forward Clint Steindl rolled an ankle in the Missouri State game, and it is not known how long he will be sidelined.
So, that’s it for non-conference play. While there are still a few non-conference yawners ahead in the schedule, for the most part this merry band of mediocre ballers get to beat up on each other for the next two-plus months. Given that since the last time we did this, Pac-12 teams combined to go just 9-5 against fairly mediocre competition, at least this will provide some of the top tier teams out west to string together a few wins. Hopefully, at least.
Team of the Week
UCLA – The Bruins won two games this week, and scored what was arguably the best win with an eight-point victory over a mediocre Richmond team. UCLA has now strung together five straight Ws (albeit over five straight teams who won’t help their resume much come March) since the dismissal of Reeves Nelson, and seem to be a team that is benefiting greatly from improved chemistry. Furthermore, their senior guard combination of Lazeric Jones and Jerime Anderson have picked up not only their production but the leadership roles that they need to claim, and have guided the UCLA ship into some clear waters prior to the rough stuff coming up from here on out. Jones has scored in double figures in seven straight games (shooting 50% eFG or better in all of them) and averaged four assists, while Anderson has been less prolific but just as steady and impactful. Meanwhile, guys like the Wear Twins and Joshua Smith have been effective up front, and youngsters Norman Powell and Tyler Lamb are displaying some of their ability, although perhaps not as consistently as Ben Howland would like. Nevertheless, the Bruins are at least headed in the right direction.
Lazeric Jones' Efficient Offense, Senior Leadership And Consistent Effort Have Helped UCLA String Together Five Straighht Wins (photo credit: Jamie Squire, Getty Images North America)
Player and Newcomer of the Week
Justin Cobbs, Soph, California – A transfer from Minnesota, Cobbs has stepped up big time in the past week. First on Monday as a depleted Bear team hosted a tough UC Santa Barbara team, Cobbs not only scored a career-high 25 points in the absence of senior leader Jorge Gutierrez, but he also took on a huge role in limiting Orlando Johnson to a season-low nine points on 4-of-13 shooting. Cobbs hit 10 of his 12 shots from the field, including all three of his threes, and was a focal point for the Bear offense. RTC correspondent Mike Lemaire was at the game and came away quite impressed with Cobbs’ performance. On Friday night, the Bears were less successful, getting blown out by UNLV in Vegas, but it wasn’t for lack of effort from Cobbs, who again led the team in scoring with 20. If he can continue to give Mike Montgomery an additional backcourt threat, the Golden Bears can challenge for a Pac-12 title in a down season, but they’ve got plenty of work still to do.
After a basketball hiatus, the ACC comes roaring back with a full slate of highly competitive games for us to watch! Wait, what’s that? There’s only one game? And it’s not supposed to be that competitive? Well, fine. Basketball is basketball and for Atlantic Coast Conference fans, this is all we have for tonight.
The Only Game
Maryland Eastern Shore at Virginia at 7 PM
Virginia remains ranked as they keep taking care of business against lesser opponents. Last week, Mike Scott walked away with the ACC Player of the Week award as he continues his spectacular final campaign with the Cavaliers. While Tony Bennett‘s team is still dealing with the departure of sophomore K.T. Harrell and redshirt freshman James Johnson, the Wahoos easily have the players to handle a Maryland Eastern Shore team that has struggled all season. The Hawks have yet to win a game on the road and struggle to shoot the ball. Against Virginia’s stifling pack-line defense in Charlottesville, Maryland Eastern Shore is going to have a hard time scoring. Expect the Cavaliers to win this game in a romp.
Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
As we head into conference season, we will focus on two games that feature four teams that need a quality win to kick off the “second season”.
Jamie Dixon Needs Someone To Step Up Against Notre Dame
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***)
Without point guard Travon Woodall (currently listed as a game-time decision), Pitt is a two-man team. Ashton Gibbs and Nasir Robinson have taken 41% of the teams field goal attempts. Luckily, the level of competition the team has faced since the Woodall injury has not been stellar. However, they ran into a tough Wagner team last Friday that gave the Panthers their second home loss to a mid-major team this season. Gibbs is only shooting 38.5% from two-point range and shoots an equal amount of two-point and three-point attempts (just over 100 from each). Robinson is shooting much better from inside the arc, hitting 68.9% of his two-point attempts. To grind out a few more wins prior to Woodall’s return, Jamie Dixon’s team will need to get help from someone other than Gibbs and Robinson. Keep an eye on who steps up against Notre Dame. If a third scorer does not emerge, the pressure on those two may be too much.
Notre Dame is in desperate need of a win against a quality opponent. Through 13 games this season, they have zero wins against a school from a major conference. They have lost to Missouri, Georgia, Gonzaga, Maryland, and Indiana. While the Notre Dame offense ranks in the top 50 in efficiency, they have managed to shoot 50% eFG or under in 7 of their 13 games – going 2-5 in those games. Pitt has only allowed three of its opponents to shoot over 50% eFG. In more bad news for Mike Brey’s team, the Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. Both areas are weak spots for the Irish. Since the Irish may be catching Pitt in one of its last gamess without its point guard, it is a perfect time for them to pick up a quality win at home. However, they will have to play a lot better than they have played all season.
Notre Dame must figure out a way to hit more shots and grab more rebounds. Unfortunately, Pitt is stronger in both areas. Keep a close eye on the Panthers’ rebounding numbers and field goal defense. If they win in those areas and get some contribution from another source than Gibbs and Robinson, they will win. The Irish must keep Pitt a two-man show, if they are to have a shot in this one.
