Breaking Down ESPN’s Prestige Rankings

Posted by nvr1983 on August 4th, 2008

Ed. Note:  Don’t like ESPN’s Prestige Rankings?  Provide your comment on how to improve them here.  We’re going to take this information and create a new set of rankings based on additional factors (and getting rid of the moronic NIT appearance = NCAA appearance (1 point) criterion). 

A couple of weeks ago I noticed that ESPN was trying to fill the dead space between the NBA Finals and the Olympics with yet another list. Normally I wouldn’t have even bothered to look at it because ESPN’s lists have been getting progressively more ludicrous (hitting its peak–or nadir–when John Hollinger put Dwayne Wade’s 2006 “Fall down 7 times, shoot 14 free throws” performance above every single one of Michael Jordan’s masterpieces). However, when I noticed that ESPN was trying to rank the most prestigious programs for college basketball in the 64-/65-team era, I was intrigued and figured it was worth some analysis.

Your #1 team of the era
Your #1 team of the era

The first thing I always do when looking at any list is to see the scoring system used and ESPN sure picked an interesting system. I’ll break it into segments with some analysis:

• National title … 25
• Title game loss … 20
• National semifinal loss … 15
• Elite Eight loss … 10

- All four of these things seems pretty reasonable. I think that most fans would value the post-season performances in a way that is pretty close to the points awarded although it seems like a Final 4 berth is considered a great accomplishment for any program (even for the Duke’s and North Carolina’s of the college basketball world). I probably would have bumped up the national title, title game loss, and national semifinal loss by 5 points to give a 10 point spread between an Elite 8 loss and a national semifinal loss.

• Best W-L record in conference’s regular season … 5
• 30-plus wins in a season … 5
• Sweet 16 loss … 5

- This is where the scoring starts to get questionable. I’m assuming the “Best W-L record in conference’s regular season” is lawyerspeak for regular season conference champion. I’m glad that ESPN has decided that the America East regular season champion deserves more points for their in-conference performance than the regular season runner-ups in the ACC, Big East, and SEC. The 5 points for the 30-plus win season may seem like a lot, but in fact they are very rare (Duke leads with 9 such seasons and I could only count/remember 16 programs with any 30-win seasons since the start of the 1984-85 season) so that seems reasonable (as does the 5 points for a Sweet 16 loss although 16 programs achieve are awarded this each season while approximately the same number have achieved it for a 30-win season during the entire era). My main question with the 5-point awards is if they really consider all regular season conference titles the same as it is easier to win certain titles than others. One interesting note about this methodology is that Princeton with 10 regular season Ivy League titles is awarded 50 points with this methodology while Duke with 9 30-plus win seasons is only awarded 45 points for that feat (ignoring the fact that Duke probably won the regular season conference title most of those years).

• Conference tournament title … 3
• AP first-team All-American … 3
• Losing in NCAA second round … 3

- I’m assuming that the Ivy League regular season champ automatically gets the 3 points for winning the conference tournament title since they don’t have a post-season tournament. This only further skews the points Princeton and UPenn get in this system as they receive 80 points and 96 points respectively for their Ivy League titles not to mention the 20-win seasons they racked up beating up on Cornell, Columbia, Harvard, and Brown. I’m perfectly fine with the AP 1st-team AA points as at most 5 teams a year will have a player earn that distinction. Perhaps they should have thrown in a National POY bonus as that player is the one who usually defines the season (Ralph Sampson, Christian Laettner, etc.). Likewise, I’m in agreement with the 3 points for the 2nd round NCAA tournament loss.

• Player in top 10 of NBA draft … 2
• NCAA first-round win as a 12-16 seed … 2
• NIT title … 2
• AP second-team All-American … 2

- This is where it starts to get really weird. Let’s get the reasonable things out of the way first. Top 10 pick worth 2 points? Ok. That seems fine even if the draft was dominated by high schoolers and Euros for a few years. In the future, the one-and-done rule might make this benefit the schools that are willing to take the one-and-done guys even if it does hurt their APR. That is unless those guys start going to Europe. Cinderella getting 2 points for a 1st-round upset? Fine with this too even if we will all remember the Hampton upset of Iowa State more than we will remember the annual 5-12 upsets. AP second-team AA worth 2 points? Ok with this one too even if I think once you start getting to the 2nd team the players selected start getting more dependent on the voters. I’m too lazy to check this out (perhaps rtmsf can do it), but I’d be willing to venture there is a lot more variation in the guys selected to the 2nd team by various publications/groups than there is with the 1st team. Now for the crazy one. . .Awarding 2 points for a NIT title? Maybe in the 1950s, but today winning the NIT only makes you the butt-end of every more successful team in your conference. How many message board threads have trolls made mocking the 65th (now 66th) best team in country? I’ll admit that the NIT champs would probably beat the 13-16 seeds most of the time, but is there really any pride in being the small fish (mediocre team) in the big ponds (power conference) that can beat up on the plankton (13-16 seeds)? I’d give the NIT champ 1 point overall, which leads into the next big problem. . .

• 20-29 wins in a season … 1
• NCAA tournament berth … 1
• Postseason NIT berth … 1
• AP third-team All-American … 1

- Let’s get the easy ones out of the way. No problems here with the 20-29 wins or AP 3rd team AA getting 1 point. I would probably differentiate between 20-24 wins, which is usually a solid season, and 25-29 wins, which usually will put you into consideration for a top 4 seed if you’re from a power conference. Like I said before the further down the AA list you go, the more variation you will have by publication/group, but it’s not really worth arguing about for 1 point. The thing worth arguing about is giving the same number of points for a NCAA tournament berth and a postseason NIT berth. To borrow an over-used phrase from John McEnroe, “You cannot be serious!” While I recognize that in this system the NIT team can only receive 2 points from the tournament (if they win), it is ridiculous to even consider invitations to the 2 tournament similar when the entire selection special is based on camera crews camping out in rooms with bubble teams to see if they got into the NCAA tournament. Maybe the ESPN stat whizzes have access to different camera feeds than I do, but it seems like the players, coaches, and families are happier when they get into the NCAA tournament than when they find out they are going to the NIT (even if Madison Square Garden is a slight upgrade from Boise, Idaho–unless we’re talking NBA). That’s just one man’s interpretation of the reactions I see although I could probably point out that a few years ago Georgetown declined an invitation to the NIT because they wanted to give their players more time to study for exams. . .in March. I wonder why Georgetown didn’t turn down its #2 seed this year. Do John Thompson III and the Georgetown AD not care about those same exams any more?

• NCAA first-round loss to a 12-16 seed … -2
• Losing season … -3
• Ban from NCAA tournament … -3

- No problem with the first two although I wonder if a losing season is counted against you if you have it expunged from your record and throw your long-time assistant coach under the bus? Also, I’d consider a 15-16 season a disappointment while I would consider 8-20 a complete embarrassment, so I’d probably make the less than 10-win season a significantly bigger penalty. I think the NCAA tournament ban should be a much larger penalty in this scoring system as the public (and press) reaction tends to be pretty bad (see below).

This is only a 3 point deduction per year?
This is only a 3 point deduction per year?

>> Minimum 15 seasons in Division I
** Ties are broken by overall winning percentage since the 1984-85 season

- After all the issues with the scoring system, I’m not going to complain about these minor qualifiers and tiebreakers. Both of them seem reasonable and none of the top 50 teams were tied.

Now that we’ve looked the methodology it’s time to pick apart the rankings to see what ESPN got right and what they screwed up. Duke is the run-away winner as even the most ardent Duke-hater (feel free to chime in here rtmsf) would agree that Coach K’s Blue Devils have been the most dominant program of the era even if their results have been underwhelming the past few years. The Blue Devils are followed by the Jayhawks in 2nd and the Tar Heels in 3rd. I’m not going to argue much with this although I would have UNC in 2nd just because I consider Kansas a team that historically underperforms in the tournament (Mario Chalmers’ shot and Danny and the Miracles not withstanding). Now onto the rankings I am utterly confused by.

Overated:
- UNLV: 8th?!? I loved Jerry Tarkanian’s Runnin’ Rebs, who may have been one of the best college teams ever even if they lost/threw the 1991 national semifinal against Duke, but there is no way this has been the 8th most prestigious program in the country over the past 20+ years just like Memphis isn’t in that category. ESPN provides a pretty clear summary of why UNLV shouldn’t be in the top 10: “2 NCAA sanctions; 10 coaches since 1984-85; 0 NCAA tourney wins between 1992 and 2007″. I’d keep UNLV in the top 20, but they definitely don’t belong in the top 10 with that track record.
- Xavier: The Muskeeters (at #17) have a nice Atlantic-10 program, but the fact that they have never made a Final 4 should automatically keep them out of the top 25. The Musketeers are buoyed by 21 combined conference titles, but have not really been a threat in the NCAA tournament having only racked up 15 NCAA tournament wins. Interestingly, Xavier came in 2 spots ahead of Cincinnati even though Xavier is widely considered the red-headed stepchild in the city.
- Temple: I don’t mean to sound like Billy Packer ripping on the mid-majors (sorry, if you’re not a BCS conference, you’re a mid-major in my eyes), but the Owls never made the Final 4 despite five trips there under John Chaney. I think they’re a very good program, but like Xavier, Temple shouldn’t be in the Top 25 without a Final 4 appearance.
- Murray State: Now this is the point where I rip the little guy. I was absolutely stunned when I saw this one. The Racers always seem to be one of those teams you see at the bottom of the bracket and maybe every once in a while you decide to take a chance on them to pull off the huge upset. Unfortunately, if you’re one of those people, you’ve only been rewarded once (1988 against 3rd-seeded NC State). The Racers piled up the points by dominating the Ohio Valley Conference racking up 22 (or 24 depending on your addition skills) conference titles and twelve 20+ win seasons (thanks to an easy conference schedule). Somehow this manages to put them above Villanova, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest.

Underrated:
- Maryland: The Terps (28th) are killed by the fact that they play in the ACC and have lost out on a ton of points thanks to playing in the same conference as Duke and UNC. Although Gary Williams hasn’t had good teams the past few years, the Terps run especially in the Juan Dixon era should have been enough to propel them into the top 20. How does this program only rank 2 spots ahead of Murray State?
- Utah: I don’t think the Utes would be able to move up much higher, but it would be interesting to see how high they would be on this list if they didn’t have the misfortune of playing Kentucky so many times in the 1990s. While the Utes benefited playing in a softer conference than some of their peers on the list (SEC and ACC), the Mountain West has been a fairly strong conference in recent years.
- Florida: I’m not sure how much higher the Gators could move up because of their relative lack of success (not counting Lon Kruger’s 1994 Final 4 run) before Joakim Noah and company ran off back-to-back titles, but it seems like that alone should be enough to crack the top 20 especially when programs like Xavier and Temple are ranked ahead of them despite not making a single Final 4 appearance. The Gators probably belong in the top 15 although that may be more of a recency effect, but it just seems that there recent run puts them at a level that isn’t that much different than UNLV with its run with Larry Johnson.

Other points of interest:
- Coach K’s current program (Duke) ranks #1. The program he left (Army) comes in tied for 298th, or as it is more commonly referred to “DFL”. Hopefully the Duke athletic department program has a better succession plan in place than Army did when Coach K decides to leave the sidelines.
- I found this rather amusing from personal experience. Boston University comes in at 108th ahead of programs such as Clemson, Providence (with a Final 4 appearance), Washington, and USC.
- In the current SportsNation voting, Kentucky is in the lead (good work out of the Sea of Blue crowd) with Duke in 4th even though they have the most #1 votes (something tells me they were left off a lot of ballots or voted 25th). The three teams I singled out as being overrated in the top 25 were moved down quite a bit. Note: I thought they were overrated even before I saw the online voting.

No bonus points for Dream Teamers?
No bonus points for Dream Teamers?
nvr1983 (1290 Posts)


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7 Responses to “Breaking Down ESPN’s Prestige Rankings”

  1. Tim says:

    Duke hasn’t exactly been red hot in the tourney since 2000 and freaking UNC has a 8 win season in that time span. Kansas, who has been an upset vitim, has been consistent since 83-84, including 7 Final Fours and 2 National Titles. Combine that with being the winningest team in the 90′s, multiple Elite 8′s, All American’s, Hall of Famers, and totally dominating their conference, it’s easy to see why they were number 2. In fact, if this was computed from, say, 1990, KU very well would be number 1.

  2. Bob says:

    Nice breakdown of ESPNs rankings, I think some of their criteria is a bit flawed and I would have done the rankings a bit differently.

    My only bone to pick with you is that you said…”Kansas historically underperforms in the tournament.” While I won’t argue that KU has experienced some upsets….to say they have historically underperformed is just plain incorrect.

    You don’t have the 3rd most tourney wins of the 64 team era (since 1985) if you’ve “historically underperformed”. KU trails only Duke and UNC (by 3 wins) in tourney wins in the modern era.

    I If KU underperforms…then almost every other program in the country hugely underperforms….because KU has been better than just about everyone else in the modern tourney era.

  3. nvr1983 says:

    While you probably could call me a Duke shill (and the pictures in this article would support your claim), I think it is ridiculous to suggest that anybody other than Duke could be considered the most prestigious program of the era.

    After looking through the brackets since 1985, Kansas hasn’t done as poorly as I remembered, but my memory may be unduly influenced by the choke jobs under Roy Williams and the consecutive pathetic opening round losses a few years ago. My issue with Kansas is their performance in the mid-90s (with your favorite coach Roy Williams). They Jayhawks results in the tournament during that stretch makes this Duke group look pretty good in comparison. The combination of losing in the 2nd round or Sweet 16 as a #1 or #2 seed (particularly the Jacque Vaughn teams) and several bids as a 6 seed or lower make it hard for me to put Kansas above Duke as the most prestigious program.

    Duke and Kansas are essentially tied in the conference championship/30-win seasons although I would argue that the ACC is a much tougher conference to win than the Big 8/12 during this era. Duke has the edge in national championships. Yes, 3-2 is close, but national championships are what define your program. Duke opens up a gap with a big edge in the number of tournament wins (69-58), AAs (almost as many 1st teamers as Kansas has on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team combined), and top 10 picks (11-5, Duke).

    That said Kansas might have a legit claim to the #1 program if they hadn’t lost to Bucknell and Bradley in the first round in back-to-back years and been put on probation immediately after they won the 1988 national title.

    Re: AAs and HOFers at Kansas. Who would you be referring to? UNC has the edge on Kansas with AAs at 17-13. HOFers coming out of Kansas in this era? Sorry, but the only guy who has a shot is Paul Pierce (aka The Kobe Killer) and even he is a stretch (coming from a Boston Celtics fan who wears a Pierce jersey to every Celtics game). Perhaps you are referring to the other NBA HOFers Kansas has produced during this era (Manning, LaFrentz, Gooden, Hinrich, Pritchard, Randall, Ostertag, Pollard, Vaughn, Robertson, Chenowith, and Simien)? I would actually put UNC’s group (check http://rushthecourt.wordpress.com/2008/07/29/nba-draft-picks-by-school-1949-2008/) ahead of that even if I consider Pierce better than anybody UNC has produced during this era.

  4. Aaron says:

    Not trying to nitpick, but the 30 win seasons aren’t quite as rare as you think. Since 1999 (that is, in the last 10 years) there have been 31 different schools with 30 win seasons and a total of 51 such seasons (so around 5 a year).

    In terms of the rankings, balancing the conferences titles is the trickiest aspect. Teams probably should be rewarded prestige points for winning lesser conferences (as opposed to finishing in the middle of the pack in major conferences); however, mediocre teams in big conferences get far more exposure than good teams in mediocre conferences.

  5. rtmsf says:

    Aaron, don’t consider it nitpicking, that’s exactly what we wanted when we put the criteria up for public comment. We weren’t aware there have been so many 30+ win seasons. Maybe that’s something we need to rethink.

    Good points about the conference titles as well. We’re still trying to figure out a fair way to do that.

  6. Brian says:

    I love how all the talking heads immediately go after the non BCS schools as overrated. The ESPN prestige rankings award teams for continued success not flash in the pan success. Xavier is a team that the BCS followers love to through under the bus. Florida was irrelevant until Billy Donovan showed up on campus. ,they have won two titles and made another final 4, but before Donovan got there they sucked. You can not have it both ways, this is a ranking system that is over a 24 year period, what Florida has been relevant since 1997.

    Also the grip about conference championships is bogus. If Xavier was in the ACC they would have better facilities, coaching, recruits, etc. Also non BCS teams do not have the luxury being in the polls all year because of pollsters opinions. I’m sure a lot of people do not mind that Gonzaga is in the top 25 but Xavier is not the media darling who ESPN is in love with.

    All in all these Prestige rankings are a joke, and only really matters if you are in the top 10. Prestige is based on where you live, what conference you are in, and your personal opinion of a team. I doubt recruits are going to look at this as a basis for making their decision.

  7. Steve says:

    You forgot to mention the Gators in the Championship Game in 2000. That is a total of four (4) Final Four appearances since 1994 and of course, 2 NCs. Not bad for a mediocre basketball program!!!!

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