We couldn’t resist.  This evening we’ll witness two of the biggest games of the year.  I don’t have to tell you, but I’ll tell you anyway — we’re talking Villanova at West Virginia at 7 PM, then Kansas @ Texas at 9 PM.  We’ll be commenting the whole evening on the games, so hit that refresh button and let’s hear what you have to say as well!

7:03 PM: Big Monday?  Heck no, how about HUUUUUGE Monday?!?  Two great games.  Raftery has already given us a “mn-a-mn!!”  Aside from the obvious excellent guard matchup, I’m interested to see how the refs are going to call this one.  PLEASE, let these guys play.

7:12: First question…did the Pirates at least give a tryout to the kid who hit the Pittsburgh assistant coach with that coin?  I’m not saying there was anything like that in the works, and we at RTC certainly don’t advocate such terrible behavior in spectators, but are you going to tell me that the Pirates’ outfield couldn’t use a guy who can throw a 500-foot strike with a nickel?  Senators, maybe?  Just a thought.

7:18: It led to free throws only, but Corey Fisher just put a Bozo the Clown suit on Da’Sean Butler.  Took the ball on a long outlet pass, took a dribble, saw Butler in front of him, gave him a QUICK shimmy-shoulder fake, and went around Butler as if his feet were in cement.  It even got a WOW and a WHOO! from Bilas and Raftery (respectively).

7:24: It has to be said: I like watching Taylor King play this game.  The guy does everything.  I dig the way’s he’s ALWAYS the first guy on the floor going after loose balls, he’s back-tapping balls, grabbing steals, snagging some offensive boards, blocking a couple of shots…and you can’t leave him open from anywhere on the floor.  He’s a difference-maker.

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#4 Villanova @ #5 West Virginia – 7 pm on ESPN (*****)

WVU Has Been Celebrating a Lot Lately (AP/David Smith)

Depending on how this game plays out, we could be looking at some major Tournament seeding implications in this one tonight.  Before Villanova’s last game against Georgetown, they had won eleven in a row, but gave up over 100 points to the Hoyas and now must face a West Virginia team that has a six-game winning streak of their own.  The Mountaineers now stand at 19-3 and would get a huge boost in the rankings with a clutch home win over Villanova.  These teams have only met once the last two seasons, but West Virginia led virtually the entire game in last year’s 93-72 blowout victory in Morgantown.  As shown by their 90 points in a double-digit loss to Georgetown, Villanova can score with anybody.  They are ranked second in points per game and third in offensive efficiency, but what is killing them is their 64th ranked defense (according to Pomeroy).  West Virginia averages less than 74 points per game, but they are right behind the Wildcats in offensive efficiency and have a top 25 defense to complement it.  WVU only surrenders 61.5 points per game, and hasn’t given up 75 points in a single game since January 1.  In Villanova’s loss to the Hoyas, Scottie Reynolds scored 24 points, but it was on 6-17 shooting.  If he is having an off night, look for him to distribute the ball more in this game, but it may not be enough against a tough Mountaineer team at home (and their crowd).

#1 Kansas @ #14 Texas – 9 pm on ESPN (****)

Texas is still going to make the NCAA tournament, but their situation is getting more desperate with every passing week.  Following their 17-0 start, they have lost four of the last six games, perhaps none worse than the loss at Oklahoma in which they never led and trailed by as much as 20 points in the second half.  Kansas has won eight straight games, but has been in a recent funk with two overtimes and trouble putting teams away in each of their last three games.  Both of these teams can put a lot of points on the board, as they also rank among the nation’s leaders in points and rebounds per game, while Kansas also ranks fourth in assists per game.  Due mainly to their earlier performances, both teams also rank highly in defensive efficiency, but Texas has now given up 80+ points in four of their last five.  Perhaps the most intriguing matchup tonight is between big men Dexter Pittman and Cole Aldrich.  Pittman shoots over 68% from the field, while Aldrich averages a double-double (12/10).  To be honest, Aldrich has been a bit of a disappointment this year with decreases in points and rebounds per game, as well as a drop off in minutes and field goal percentage.  He couldn’t keep his stamina at the end of the Colorado game, and only scored eight points against Nebraska, but the Jayhawks will need him if they want to keep pace with their high-scoring opponent in Austin.

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Some quick thoughts going into the last five weeks before Selection Sunday…

• Kansas remains the #1 overall seed by squeaking out two games this week against Nebraska and Colorado to remain undefeated atop the Big 12. Both Syracuse and Kentucky took care of business behind them. Despite being romped by Georgetown on Saturday, Villanova slips in as the last #1 seed but must play in Salt Lake City.
• Georgetown appeared as though they might slip from the #2 seed line after their loss to South Florida mid-week, but their statement victory against Villanova healed all wounds. Also on the second line are West Virginia and Duke. Losing two games this week still kept Michigan State as a #2 seed slightly ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue due to the Spartans being the projected conference champions.
• Wisconsin, Purdue and Kansas State as #3 seeds were obvious, but New Mexico’s impressive portfolio really jumped out at me at 21-3 (7-2) a #10 RPI and six wins over the RPI top 50. Surviving a scare from San Diego State allowed the Lobos to claim this lofty seed and play closer to home in San Jose.
• Three big climbers this week were Wake Forest, UNLV and Richmond. The Demon Deacons picked up an underrated road win at Virginia and, with an RPI/SOS in the top 25 and four top-50 wins, they’re building quite the resume. Wake might be the second-best team in the ACC. UNLV destroying BYU in Vegas pushed the Rebels up to a #6 seed while Richmond’s dispatching of Temple moved them up from bubble territory to a much more comfortable #8 seed.
• The Big East is incredibly muddled in the middle. Out of the 12 teams in my LFI, LFO and NFO categories, five reside from the Big East. Notre Dame could have been dead with a loss yesterday to South Florida, but an Irish win keeps them very much alive and doesn’t allow the Bulls to inch into the periphery of the bubble. Illinois and Virginia Tech just could not be denied entry due to their conference records despite lackluster computer numbers. Louisville and Cincinnati are also close calls.
• Marquette and Old Dominion were extremely close for the last bid, but the Golden Eagles winning their last three while the Monarchs have fallen in two of their last three flip-flopped the schools. Coincidentally, both hold a signature win over Georgetown. One team that needs to watch out is Oklahoma State, now straddled with a losing Big 12 record and just three wins over the RPI top 100.

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Another weekend means that the RTC crew is back with another thrilling edition of Boom Goes the Dynamite. This weekend’s games are not as strong as you might expect for an early February weekend, but that just means the rest of the month is going to be stuffed to the gills with great matchups.  Still, any Saturday that has a total of 147 games on the slate is going to have quite a few goodies.  Here are the games that we plan on trying to keep an eye on today…

12 PM: #2 Villanova @ #7 Georgetown on ESPN – RTC Live
12 PM: Xavier @ Dayton on ESPN2
12 PM: #6 West Virginia @ St. John’s on ESPNU
12 PM: Wake Forest @ Virginia on ESPN360
1:30 PM: Mississippi State @ Florida on ESPN360
2 PM: #10 Duke @ Boston College on ESPN
2 PM: #19 Temple @ Richmond on ESPNU
4 PM: #16 Wisconsin @ Michigan on CBS
4 PM: California @ UCLA on CBS
4 PM: #9 Texas @ Oklahoma on ESPN
4 PM: #17 Gonzaga @ Memphis on ESPN2
4 PM: #12 BYU @ UNLV on Versus
4 PM: #20 Baylor @ Texas A&M on ESPN360
6 PM: South Carolina @ #14 Tennessee on ESPN
6 PM: San Diego State @ #15 New Mexico on The Mtn.
6 PM: Seton Hall @ #22 Pittsburgh on ESPN360
9 PM: #5 Michigan State @ Illinois on ESPN
10 PM: Tulsa @ UTEP on ESPN2
10 PM: Nevada @ Utah State on ESPNU – RTC Live

We’re sure you know how the drill works — we’ll update accordingly throughout the day as we try to test the limits of our televisions’ channel-changing mechanisms — and we hope to see you around in the comments.

12 noon: Here we go.  JStev to start out with you here, then rtmsf will guide you through the latter part of the day.  Pretty good slate of early games, as you can see above.  Looks like the ESPN Gameday guys are split on the evening game, with Digger the only one taking the Illini.

12:04: Also, as you can see from the link above, we have a man at Georgetown vs Villanova for RTC Live.  Man, it looks like DC got walloped by this storm.  I’ll be checking in quite often on Xavier at Dayton over on ESPN2. since we have live coverage in DC.  I’m also thinking WVU at St. John’s could get interesting on the U.

12:13: I wasn’t aware of this 72-hour stretch for Villanova.  AT Georgetown and then AT West Virginia.  Yeesh.  If they win both of those, it’d be hard to begrudge them the number one spot in the rankings, if Kansas/Texas on Monday is even CLOSE.  Who was the last #1 to get demoted to #2 without losing?  I think it was a Kentucky team in like 1986 or 1987, with Arizona taking #1.  Verification pending…

12:20: Dayton has come out on fire at home against Xavier, already up by ten.  They’ve hit 7-13 and 3-5.  I was courtside at Dayton vs Creighton to start the season and let me you, folks…I was impressed by the passion brought to the table by the Dayton fans.  I’ve seen many games in many places from media seats this year, and Dayton’s fans were some of the loudest.  You know what?  So were Xavier’s.  One of the great things about A10 basketball.  SO many great rivalries.

12:30: It’s obvious that Brian Gregory has made it clear to his team how important this game is.  They are OWNING the Muskies right now.  They’re on fire from everywhere on the floor.  They have five times the assists (5-1), double the rebounds (14-7), and Xavier doesn’t have an assist yet.  Five minutes left in the first half and Dayton is up 31-17.

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DC may be sitting under two feet of snow, but we at RTC threw on our snow boots, busted out the parka, and took the rocket sled out to the Verizon Center for today’s match-up between Villanova and Georgetown. The Hoyas have had an up-and-down two weeks. Two weeks ago during Big Monday, the Hoyas got smacked by Syracuse. A week ago, Georgetown returned the favor to Duke. Then on Wednesday, Georgetown ran into the buzzsaw that is Dominique James, dropping to 6-4 in the league. Villanova, on the other hand, has cruised to a perfect 9-0 record in Big East play, but they have yet to hit the meat of their schedule. Today kicks off what is going to be a brutal February, as Nova will play Georgetown, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Pitt on the road this month.

But that’s down the road. Today’s game will be determined on the perimeter. Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, and Corey Stokes are known names in this league, and Maalik Wayns is well on his way to being the next great Nova guard. But the Hoyas have their own trio of talented back court players in Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, and Jason Clark. When talking about Georgetown, the first name that is always brought up is Greg Monroe, but he may not be the Hoyas’ most important player. When Chris Wright scores in double figures, Georgetown is undefeated. When he doesn’t, they are 1-5. Villanova is improved on the defensive end with Reggie Redding in uniform, but Georgetown’s disciplined and patient offense is a tough one to defend.  Ask Duke.

Should be a heckuva game today. Drop by and join in the conversation!

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Rob Dauster of Ballin’ is a Habit is the RTC correspondent for the Big East Conference.

Pitt started the Big East season on fire. They won five straight out of the gates, including a three game road trip in which they took down Syracuse, UConn and Cincinnati.  But after a loss to West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, the Panthers have dropped four of their last five games to fall to 6-4 in league play, just a half-game in front of Louisville and a game in front of South Florida, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.

So what happened?  How did Pitt go from the darling of the national media to a team in free fall?

Its simple. They can’t score.  Through five Big East games, the Panthers were averaging 74.0 ppg. In their last five, that number has dropped to 60.3 ppg. When the Panthers were 5-0, Ashton Gibbs was averaging 20.0 ppg, shooting 52.0% from the field, and hit 16-22 threes. In his last five games, he’s averaging just 13.4 ppg while shooting 26.4% from the field and 6-29 from deep.

Don’t put it all on Gibbs, however. He isn’t the only one struggling. Brad Wanamaker is averaging just 9.6 ppg over the last five games, including being shut out against the Mountaineers. Jermaine Dixon sprained his ankle in the St. John’s game and missed the Panther’s loss to South Florida. Dante Taylor hasn’t scored in four games, and Travon Woodall has just eight points in that span. Gary McGhee, Pitt’s 6’10, 260-lb center, couldn’t hit a layup if his life depended on it. There is no reason someone should go 3-11 from the field when they don’t take a shot outside of two feet from the rim. Nasir Robinson has scored 23 points in five games in his 26 point outburst against Louisville. Gilbert Brown is really the only guy playing well offensively right now, and even he has been painfully in consistent. He scored 20 and was 8-9 from the floor in the loss to Georgetown, but scored just 16 points on 3-13 shooting over his next two games. After dropping 25 in the loss to South Florida, Brown was shut out against West Virginia.

Its really that simple. The biggest reason that Pitt was thought to be down this season was their lack of firepower offensively. There isn’t anyone on this roster that is considered a go-to scorer. Even Ashton Gibbs, who has been one of the most improved players this season in the Big East, is more of a secondary scoring option. He’s not great at creating his own shot, especially against a set defense, and it is starting to be exposed.  But Pitt has never exactly been known as a team with tremendous offensive prowess. They aren’t going to be scoring 85 points a game and beating teams in a shootout.  Pitt’s success hinges on their ability to defend, which is something they haven’t exactly been doing great of late either. Their four losses have been some of their worst defensive performances of the season.  What is a good way to go on a losing streak?  Struggle to score the ball while playing shoddy defense.

Other News and Notes

• I told you South Florida was going to be good, didn’t I? Believe it or not, USF is now on the bubble. They are 15-7 and 5-5 in the Big East. Their RPI is in the mid-40s. They have wins over Pitt and at Georgetown (not that it makes a difference, but that win came just three days after the Hoyas smacked Duke). While the Bulls are just 2-4 against the RPI top 50, they are 6-6 against the top 100. They have one ugly loss against Central Michigan, but that can be somewhat excused as it was their first game playing without Gus Gilchrist. Speaking of Gilchrist, the 6’10 center who was averaging 18.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg before suffering a severe high-ankle sprain is scheduled to return against either Notre Dame or Marquette. With their schedule down the stretch (they only play one game at Villanova against a team with an RPI higher than 48 and a winning record in the Big East) and Gilchrist’s pending return, if USF could get to ten Big East wins and 20 wins on the season, which may actually be shooting low, they have a very good chance at getting a bid.
• Jeremy Hazell was pulled late in Seton Hall’s loss to Villanova on Tuesday. Hazell had scored 32 points, but also had thrown up three terrible shots in a row. Bobby Gonzalez benched him with 4:06 left and the lead only at 11. Many speculated that it was the result of poor shot selection by Hazell, but Gonzo cleared it up during the Big East conference call by saying that Hazell “didn’t run back on defense” and that he did “not join his teammates in the huddle.”
• Did any team in the league have a stranger week than Georgetown? On Saturday, the Hoyas beat the snot out of Duke in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. Four days later, the Hoyas became the fourth victim in South Florida’s run. And, as you should be accustomed to by now, Chris Wright struggled in the loss and flourished in the win. He has yet to score double-digits and lose this season.
• Want another crazy prediction? Marquette is going to make the tournament. The hardest of the hard-luck losers this season (their five Big East losses have come by a total of eight points, and their three non-conference losses were by one, four, and nine points), Marquette has won three straight Big East games to get to 5-5 in the league. They have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, as they don’t play any of the Big East’s big four, they get Pitt at home, and play just one of their four road games against a team in the RPI top 50 (Cincy).
• Cincinnati, on the other hand, won’t make the tournament. And it isn’t due to a lack of talent as much as it is a lack of coaching. Or effort. Or something. Because in a game they needed Thursday night against Notre Dame, the Bearcats were embarrassed. Luke Harangody had 37 points and 14 boards as Cincy was outrebounded and out-toughed. By Notre Dame. Cincinnati is a team that is supposed to pride themselves on their toughness, their defense, and their board work. Notre Dame is a finesse team. It looks like the Bearcats may have given up on the season.
• Villanova’s schedule gets a whole lot tougher over the next month, starting this week. On Saturday, they head to Georgetown before going to West Virginia on Monday. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats are in third place in the conference come Tuesday. That said, going 2-0 over that stretch could all but seal a #1 seed come Selection Sunday.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Dominique Jones, South Florida

Jones went for 37 points on Sunday against Pitt and 29 points Wednesday against Georgetown. He’s averaging 35.0 ppg in the Bulls’ four-game winning streak. In those four games, he is shooting 61% from the floor and has gotten to the free throw line (…wait for it) 63 times! I think the best way to describe Jones’ game is that he attacks the rim with ruthless efficiency. He’s too strong to be defended by smaller guards, and too quick to be guarded by small forwards. He goes right almost every time he puts the ball on the floor, and yet teams are still struggling to slow him down. Up next for Jones is Notre Dame, a team that ranks 255th in defensive efficiency, far and away the worst in the Big East. Could Jones go for 50?

TEAM OF THE WEEK: West Virginia

Its really South Florida, but I’m sick of writing about the Bulls, so I’m giving West Virginia the team of the week award. The Mountaineers have gone 2-0 since you last checked in with us, beating Louisville on Saturday and knocking off Pitt in the Backyard Brawl on Wednesday. WVU has now won five straight games since they lost three of five. The biggest reason for their resurgence has been the play of Truck Bryant. Bryant was banged up earlier in the season, but has started coming on of late, playing really solid basketball. He knocks down open jumpers, he can get in the lane and draw a foul, he can create shots for his teammates, and he does so without turning the ball over. Over his last five games, Bryant is averaging 11.8 ppg, 4.8 apg, and has turned the ball over just eight times.

POWER RANKINGS

1. Villanova: 20-1, 9-0

Last Week: 2/2 vs. Seton Hall 81-71

This Week: 2/6 @ Georgetown, 2/8 @ West Virginia

2. Syracuse: 22-1, 9-1

Last Week: 1/30 @ DePaul, 2/2 vs. Providence

This Week: 2/7 @ Cincinnati, 2/10 vs. UConn

3. West Virginia: 18-3, 7-2

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Louisville 77-74, 2/3 vs. Pitt 70-51

This Week: 2/6 @ St. John’s, 2/8 vs. Villanova

4. Georgetown: 16-5, 6-4

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Duke 89-77, 2/3 vs. South Florida 64-72

This Week: 2/6 vs. Villanova, 2/9 @ Providence

5. Pitt: 16-6, 6-4

Last Week: 1/31 @ South Florida 61-70, 2/3 @ West Virginia 51-70

This Week: 2/6 vs. Seton Hall, 2/8 vs. Robert Morris

6. Louisville: 14-8, 5-4

Last Week: 1/30 vs. West Virginia 74-77, 2/1 vs. UConn 82-69

This Week: 2/6 vs. Rutgers, 2/11 @ St. John’s

7. Marquette: 14-8, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 @ UConn 70-68, 2/3 vs. DePaul 80-69

This Week: 2/6 @ Providence

8. South Florida: 15-7, 5-5

Last Week: 1/31 vs. 61-70, 2/3 @ Georgetown 72-64

This Week: 2/7 @ Notre Dame

9. Notre Dame: 16-7, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 @ Rutgers 73-74, 2/4 vs. Cincinnati 83-65

This Week: 2/7 vs. South Florida, 2/11 @ Seton Hall

10. Cincinnati: 14-8, 5-5

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Providence 92-88, 2/4 @ Notre Dame 65-83

This Week: 2/7 vs. Syracuse

11. Providence:12-10, 4-6

Last Week: 1/30 @ Cincinnati 88-92, 2/2 @ Syracuse 68-85

This Week: 2/6 vs. Marquette, 2/9 vs. Georgetown

12. UConn: 13-9, 3-6

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Marquette 68-70, 2/1 @ Louisville 69-82

This Week: 2/6 vs. DePaul, 2/10 @ Syracuse

13. Seton Hall: 12-8, 3-6

Last Week: 2/2 @ Villanova 71-81

This Week: 2/6 @ Pitt, 2/11 vs. Notre Dame

14. Rutgers: 11-11, 2-8

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Notre Dame 74-73, 2/3 vs. St. John’s 84-72

This Week: 2/6 @ Louisville, 2/9 vs. Caldwell College

15. St. John’s: 12-9, 2-7

Last Week: 2/2 @ Rutgers 72-84

This Week: 2/6 vs. West Virginia, 2/11 vs. Louisville

16. DePaul: 8-14, 1-9

Last Week: 1/30 vs. Syracuse 57-59, 2/3 @ Marquette 69-80

This Week: 2/6 @ UConn

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2012
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

#8 Georgetown @ #2 Villanova – 12 pm on ESPN (*****)

Should Be a Great One in DC Today (David Maialetti)

Is Villanova the best team in the country?  Many voters are split between the Jayhawks and Wildcats, but if VU wins its next two games at Georgetown and West Virginia, they will at least cement their standing as a top seed, if not the number one ranking.  Georgetown can be a dangerous team, with wins over Butler and Duke, but also have losses to Old Dominion and South Florida.  Villanova, largely due to their #60 defense in terms of efficiency, rank only 13^th overall according to Ken Pomeroy.  The Wildcats score 85 points per contest (second nationally), but if they have an off night against a GU team that surrenders only 63 ppg, they could find themselves in real trouble.  The last time the Wildcats scored below seventy points, they lost to Temple.  Since then, Nova has won 11 games in a row, one of which was a five-point victory against the Hoyas in Philly.  On that afternoon, Georgetown actually outscored VU 46-36 in the second half and Greg Monroe scored 29 points.  In addition to Monroe, four Hoyas average in double figures and they rank second in the country in field goal percentage at over 50%.  If the Hoyas can make their shots and hold the Wildcats to less than seventy points, they will have a great chance to win the game.

Xavier @ Dayton – 12 pm on ESPN2 (***)

With wins in their last four games, Xavier has not only played itself back to the top of the Atlantic 10 (temporarily), but they have also gotten back into the conversation of an at-large berth.  All of the wins were by double digits, while Dayton appears to be heading in the opposite direction.  Although the Flyers are coming off a win at lowly Saint Bonaventure, they had lost three of their previous four games.  They average an acceptable 70 points per game, but are ranked 112th in offensive efficiency.  The A-10 will send a few teams to the tournament this year, but at currently sixth in the conference, Dayton will need to get it going to earn an at-large bid.  In their last meeting on January 16, Xavier came back in the second half to preserve a 25-game home winning streak against the Flyers.  Today’s matchup will be at Dayton Arena, where the flyers are 10-1 this year.  If the Flyers want to win this time around, they will have to make the Musketeers shoot outside of their comfort zone.  Led by Dante Jackson, Xavier shot 53% from beyond the arc and 80% from the line against Dayton in the first game.  Dayton’s leading scorer, Chris Wright, only scored five points in their last game, so he will have to play one of his best games of the season to pull off the win.

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1. You probably already knew that Michigan State star Kalin Lucas sprained his ankle in the game against Wisconsin on Tuesday evening, but yesterday MSU officials confirmed the important news that there was no broken bone in his foot.  As of now, he’s listed as day to day but he’ll be re-evaluated after treatment today to determine if he might be back for Saturday’s game against Illinois.
2. Minnesota forward Royce White has officially retired from basketball as he formally withdrew from the Minnesota program on Wednesday.  You’ll certainly recall White’s bizarre YouTube announcement that he was quitting basketball in mid-December, and it was clear that not all was right with the budding impresario.  A tough week gets tougher for Tubby smith, who lost Al Nolen to academic problems on Tuesday.
3. This is an internal link, but we want to make sure everyone sees it who comes here.  Have you wondered who some of the teams are that would be invited to the NCAA Tournament if they stupidly expand it to 96 teams?  Check out our analysis for the answer to that.  If you’re not as appalled as we are that the likes of Alabama and Boston College would be part of the field, then you’re a better person than us.
4. Impressive.  The February 27 Gameday matchup between #2 Syracuse and #3 Villanova has already sold out the Carrier Dome (34,616), and it will set a new record (breaking SU’s own 2006 makr) for the largest crowd to ever see a college basketball game in an on-campus arena.
5. Mike DeCourcy thinks that the three most likely teams to run the conference table will be the MEAC’s Morgan State, the Horizon’s Butler, and the MAAC’s Siena.  Cornell in the Ivy is another obvious choice, but they do have to visit Harvard, and of course #1 Kansas has a tough road game coming up at Texas on Monday night.

RTC contributor and bracketologist Zach Hayes will deliver ten permeating thoughts every week as the season progresses.

This week’s Scribbles column will look ahead to a couple months down the road in Indianapolis, where 65 deserving teams will be whittled down to just four, and to that blissful Monday night in April when one lucky group will be dancing at mid-court to the tune of One Shining Moment. In my estimation, there are ten squads with a promising-to-slight chance of hoisting a 2010 National Champions banner during their home opener next season. I’m here to tell you those ten teams, why they have hopes of winning a national title, what’s holding them back, and the most realistic scenario as I see it come late March or beginning of April. These teams are ranked in reverse order from 10-1 with the #1 school holding the best cards in their deck.

10. Duke

Why they can win it all: Their floor leader and senior stalwart Jon Scheyer is the steadiest distributor in all of college basketball, evident from his incredibly stellar 3.28 A/T ratio and a 5.6 APG mark that ranks third in the ACC and 23d in the nation. Scheyer is also a deadly shooter coming off screens when he has time to square his body to the basket, nailing a career-high 39% from deep to go along with 44% from the floor overall. Duke is also a tremendous free-throw shooting team as a whole and Coach K has the ability to play a group of Scheyer-Kyle Singler-Nolan Smith-Mason Plumlee-Lance Thomas that doesn’t feature one player under 70% from the charity stripe. Duke also features a ton more size in the paint than during previous flameouts in the NCAA Tournament. When Singler plays small forward, Coach K can rotate Miles and Mason Plumlee, the glue guy Thomas, rebounding force Brian Zoubek and even Ryan Kelly at two positions with no player under 6’8. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more efficient backcourt in the nation than Scheyer and Smith. And it’s widely known that exceptional guard play is the ultimate key to winning in March.

What Makes Duke 2010 Different than Duke 2006-09?

Why they won’t win it all: Depth could certainly be an issue for the Blue Devils’ chances of raising their first banner since 2001. Andre Dawkins has fallen almost entirely out of the rotation and Coach K has started to limit Mason Plumlee’s minutes during important games. Also, Brian Zoubek’s tendency to immediately step into foul trouble limits his availability. It wouldn’t shock me to see Duke play Scheyer, Smith and Singler 40 minutes per game during their time in the NCAA Tournament. That could cause those key players, who rely primarily on their jump shot, to lose their legs and start throwing up bricks. Kyle Singler isn’t quite the superstar he was last season, either. Singler’s numbers are down across the board — scoring, rebounding, FG%, 3pt% — and he’s been dealing with a nagging wrist injury that may not improve in the weeks and months ahead. Duke also lacks the athleticism of teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Texas. They could struggle with quicker guards like John Wall and athletic rebounders of the Damion James mold.

Likely scenario: I see Duke reaching the Sweet 16 as a #2 seed where they fall to a more athletic, quick group of guards that can explode to the rim and draw fouls. Duke may have height, but most of that height just isn’t a threat offensively by any stretch of the imagination. Eventually getting into a jump shooting contest could be the Blue Devils’ downfall if two of Smith, Scheyer and Singler go cold.

9. West Virginia

Why they can win it all: Da’Sean Butler is one of the best players in the nation when the chips are on the table. If the Mountaineers need a big shot to keep their season alive, Butler will demand the basketball and more than likely deliver. He’s downed Marquette and Louisville on game-deciding jumpers and led the second half charge against Ohio State. West Virginia is also supremely athletic and Bob Huggins’ teams always crash the boards with a tremendous ferocity. No contender can match the height across the board that West Virginia touts other than Kentucky. Huggins has experimented with lineups in which all of his players are 6’6 or taller, including 6’9 Devin Ebanks acting as a point-forward and 6’7 Da’Sean Butler capable of posting up smaller two-guards. Sophomore Kevin Jones is an incredible talent and a rebounding machine (7.7 RPG) that hits 55% of his shots from the floor and 44% from deep. West Virginia has the luxury of any of their forwards being able to step out and drain a mid-range jumper, from Ebanks to Jones to Wellington Smith to John Flowers every once in a full moon.

Ebanks is the X-factor for West Virginia

Why they won’t win it all: Let’s face it: Bob Huggins doesn’t have exactly the best track record when it comes to NCAA Tournament success. Huggins hasn’t reached the Elite 8 since 1995-96 with Cincinnati and only one Sweet 16 in the last ten years. In 2000 and 2002, his Bearcats lost just four games all season and yet didn’t reach the second weekend of March both times. Most also question whether the Mountaineers can hit outside shots on a consistent basis. They’ve struggled mightily in the first half of Big East games and can’t afford to fall behind against elite competition in March like they did against Dayton last season. Point guard play is a prudent question for West Virginia, as well. Joe Mazzulla is a quality perimeter defender and a capable distributor, but he’ll never be the offensive threat he was two seasons ago due to that shoulder injury. Darryl Bryant can certainly catch a hot streak shooting-wise, but in all honestly he’s more suited as an undersized two-guard. Bryant is averaging just 3.6 APG in 25+ MPG of action.

Likely scenario: I’m still fairly high on this team. I love Butler at the end of games and Ebanks can do anything for Huggins — from score to rebound to run the point — and Kevin Jones is one of the most underappreciated players in the Big East. In the end, I see a clankfest from outside ultimately costing West Virginia their season. And for all their rebounding history, the Mountaineers are in the mid-60s in the nation. The Elite Eight seems like a proper place for their season to conclude.

8. Texas

Why they can win it all: No team boasts better perimeter defenders than Texas. Anyone that watched Dogus Balbay completely shut down James Anderson in the second half Monday night knows he’s the best perimeter defender in the nation, even stronger than Purdue’s Chris Kramer. Avery Bradley came in with the reputation as an elite defender and he’s certainly lived up to that billing. Even J’Covan Brown off the bench is a capable defensive player and Justin Mason is a plus defender. When Dexter Pittman stays out of foul trouble, Texas boasts a legitimate shot-blocking presence that can negate quick guards on the rare occasion they slip past Balbay or Bradley. Texas is also the deepest team in the nation and Rick Barnes has the capability of playing 10 or 11 men on any night if he feels the need. The preserved minutes could pay dividends in the form of fresh players come March. Damion James should also be on a mission come March as a senior. He’s never reached a Final Four during his Longhorns career and came back for a fourth year in Austin to accomplish that very feat.

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Tuesday Night Hoops.  Tonight’s games weren’t all that compelling from the perspective of must-see TV, but we learned a few things.  Such as… don’t ever underestimate a Bo Ryan-coached team (that rings a bell…), John Wall is happy as a clam, and Wes Johnson should save the flips for the Winter X Games coverage.

Bo Ryan Can Coach a Little Bit. #16 Wisconsin 67, #5 Michigan State 49. Could there be a better blueprint for the basketball philosophy of Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers than this game?  Clock control, care of the basketball, good shot selection, and tough defense.  The Badgers didn’t come with any secret weapons or snazzy new game plans, here.  Just the same recipe for success they’ve employed for years, now.  In fact, they’re still without Jon Leuer and had to play without Trevon Hughes for a big chunk of the first half because of some early foul trouble.  Jason Bohannon (19/4/2) and Jordan Taylor (17/4/4) amped up their games to fill the void, both playing all 40 minutes, and accounting for half of their team’s field goals.  The most impressive number you can take from this one is found in the turnovers column; Wisconsin is the BEST in the nation when it comes to taking care of the basketball, averaging only 9.4 turnovers/game coming into this one.  The Badgers gave it up only five times on Tuesday night (they’re down to 8.4 a game) while forcing MSU into 13 of their own.  Kalin Lucas going down with a pretty ugly sprained ankle in the second half didn’t help on that front, either; more details on that injury after imaging is done on Wednesday.  The win moved Wisconsin to within two games of the Spartans in the Big Ten, and both squads have four home and four away games remaining.  For additional information, RTC Live was at the game tonight.

Wisconsin Punished MSU Tonight in Madison (Steve Apps)

Scary Situation Involving Wesley Johnson. #4 Syracuse 85, Providence 68. Coming into the game most fans viewed this as seemingly inconsequential, but the most important moment of the college basketball season may have happened with 11:56 left in the first half in Syracuse this season when uber-transfer Wesley Johnson went up to throw down an alley-oop, but got flipped by Brian McKenzie who was underneath his flight path. For a second everyone watching both in the Carrier Dome and on television had flashbacks to Travis Roy. Fortunately for Johnson, Jim Boeheim, and college basketball fans everywhere Johnson was able to get that extra half of rotation and land on his back rather than his head.  He talks about it here.  [Ed. Note: This is why we stay on the floor. Or is it our single-digit vertical?] After a rough stretch that saw the Orange struggle to take a 3-point lead into half, Syracuse rebounded behind a strong effort from Kris Joseph (career-high 23 points) and Arinze Onuaku (season-high 20 points) to lead the Orange to their best start (22-1) in school history.

Luckily Wes Johnson Wasn't Injured (Dennis Nett)

How’d the Rest of the Top Ten Do Tonight?

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