The Lede.  It was an exceptionally strange night out there in college basketball-land.  The best game on paper was a complete dud, while a couple that didn’t look very exciting at all turned out to be outstanding.  A team that looked unbeatable in its conference race got knocked out by an old crosstown rival, and a venerable old program with a curmudgeonly old coach who’s been telling us his team isn’t very good suffered a beatdown that nobody else saw coming.  The NPOY race may have gotten a tad more clear tonight as east coast candidate #1 struggled, but let’s wait until tomorrow and west coast candidate plays before rushing to judgment on that decision.  Here we go…

This Guy Gets It Right (C-D/C. Russell)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Buckeyes Defend Their #1 Ranking With Authority.  For some reason or another, there was an underlying sentiment among some people out in the world that Thad Matta’s Ohio State Buckeyes were not nearly as good as their #1 ranking.  We don’t personally claim to know any of those folks, but one thing is certain.  After tonight’s thorough destruction of a game Purdue team with a couple of all-americans in its lineup and a night after Pittsburgh shot itself in the foot at home against Notre Dame, let there be no question:  Ohio State is the best team in America right now.  And they might just be the favorite to cut down the nets in Houston in early April as well.  The Buckeyes unleashed a flurry of early threes against a team with a great defense, the kind of defense that doesn’t allow teams to drain five threes against it prior to the second television timeout.  Then, as soon as Purdue started figuring out how to take away that weapon, Thad Matta’s team started penetrating for open looks inside.  The scariest part for every other team in the country — NPOY candidate Jared Sullinger really wasn’t even a part of the 20-point halftime lead that OSU built.  He only had four points while veterans William Buford, Jon Diebler and David Lighty did their thing.  No other elite team in America — not even Duke with Kyrie Irving healthy — has the inside/outside balance and experience that Ohio State brings to the table.  Against lesser teams, of course, a twenty-point lead is something that really good teams like Purdue can overcome; yet, everybody watching this one knew that Purdue was simply outclassed tonight.  Short of a massive misstep, OSU will most likely hit February still unbeaten after a win at Northwestern this weekend.  A home game against Michigan follows, and then a road game at Minnesota (now without Al Nolen).  The most likely chance for the Buckeyes to lose next now appears to be the February 12 game at Wisconsin.

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Florida-Georgia as Must-See TV.  Tonight’s Super Tuesday matchup between Florida and Georgia was 1000 times more interesting and exciting that last week’s horrific Florida-Auburn game on ESPN.  The Gators and Dawgs went at each other tonight in a way we haven’t seen in years in the SEC (the closest comparison is some of the epic Tennessee-Florida battles in recent years), but it was Erving Walker who managed to go from the Gator goat to hero in the course of just a few game minutes.  Walker’s missed FT attempts down the stretch of regulation allowed Georgia to have a chance to tie the game on Trey Thompkins’ putback at the buzzer, but it was his 30-footer at the horn of the first overtime (see below) that gave his team another chance in the second extra period.  Florida ran away with it in the second OT, putting the Gators at 5-1 in the SEC with big road wins already at Tennessee and Georgia.  We’re never going to be completely sold on these Gators because of their personnel, but we’ll give them credit for winning two nailbiters in very tough SEC East venues this season.  Do it at Vandy and Kentucky… then they’ll have our attention.

• Kemba Walker’s Teammates, Again.  What was especially impressive about tonight’s clutch 76-68 UConn win at Marquette was that despite the NPOY candidate’s poor shooting night (5-16 FG; 0-5 from three), other players stepped up to carry the load.  Usually that’s been Alex Oriakhi, at least in the past month since Jim Calhoun called him out, but not tonight — Oriakhi only contributed 6/2 this evening.  Rather it was the talented corps of freshmen led by Jeremy Lamb’s career-high 24/3/4 assts that kept UConn competitive throughout — Roscoe Smith added 11/8 and Shabazz Napier had 11/6/4 assts/3 stls.  The reason that UConn has gone from an NIT team to a possible Final Four team in one season is twofold — 1) Kemba, obviously; but also, 2) the talented freshman class in addition to Alex Oriakhi’s development from stand-around-and-watch players to actual contributors.  If this keeps up much longer, Jim Calhoun deserves serious NCOY consideration.

• Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-10 conferences.

A Look Back

While the top of the conference was business as usual, with BYU and San Diego State both taking care of things on their way towards Wednesday’s collision, there was quite a bit of shakeup in the middle of the conference. Colorado State handled UNLV at the Thomas & Mack with ease on Wednesday, before falling in a fairly close battle with BYU on Saturday. UNLV bounced back from their loss to squeak one out over New Mexico on Saturday, while the Lobos struggled to a two loss week and sank to the back of the pack of teams hoping to contend for upper-division finishes. The other team that got over on New Mexico this week was Utah, who built on last week’s road win at Laramie with a home win against the Lobos and another road win on Saturday, this time at TCU. With the Ute roster rounding into relative health, Jim Boylen has his team ready to be a tough out the rest of the way in conference play. But as we head into fourth week of conference play, the big story is the two teams at the top of the conference getting ready to meet in Provo on Wednesday night. With just one loss on the season between the two teams, a National Player of the Year contender in Jimmer Fredette and a couple of top ten teams, the game sets up as not only the game of the year in the Mountain West, but one of the better regular season games of the entire college basketball season.

Team of the Week: Utah – In the middle of last week, the Utes were mired in the middle of a seven-game losing streak, with a loss to San Diego – one of the worst teams in Division I – mixed in with more explainable losses to teams like Butler, Portland, San Diego State and BYU. Now, they’re riding a three-game winning streak and are right in the conversation with a bunch of teams in the middle of the conference behind the front-runners. Junior center David Foster has come back strong from injury problems in the early season to average 8.7 rebounds and four blocks per game over the course of the winning streak, providing the Utes with a big dominant force in the middle. While junior Josh Watkins has struggled with turnovers all season, he has provided a scoring punch from the backcourt for the Utes, and he has averaged 17.3 PPG over the last three games. Junior Will Clyburn had his first game of the season in which he did not score in double figures when he was limited to 27 minutes (yes, limited – he averages over 36 minutes per game) against New Mexico, but he surrounded that game with a 24-point, 12-rebound monster at Wyoming and a 22-point, nine-rebound effort at TCU. In addition, freshman J.J. O’Brien and sophomore Shawn Glover have both stepped up as excellent role players. This isn’t going to magically turn into a classic Utah team overnight, but assuming everyone stays healthy, seeing Utah on the schedule means a tough game again.

Player of the Week: Jimmer Fredette, Senior, BYU – Last week, when Fredette scored 47 against Utah, I instead gave the Player of the Week to Kawhi Leonard, and deservedly so. This week, Fredette went for a quiet 21 against TCU before exploding again for 42 at Colorado State. I hear ya, Jimmer, I hear ya. In the CSU game, Fredette was unstoppably aggressive, getting to the line easily for 17 attempts (making 16), but also knocking down the typical deep Fredette threes. In the past week, he has seemingly extended his range, knocking down a couple of threes from about 30 feet out, both times within the normal flow and context of the game. Oh, there’s Jimmer dropping in a pull-up 30-foot three with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. Ho hum. He’s just ridiculous, guys. Once again, I’ll take this opportunity to point out that we’ve only 11 more opportunities in the regular season to watch Fredette play. Every one of those games is available on television. If you’re not taking advantage of the chance to get to watch this guy play every time out, you’re the one missing out.

Newcomer of the Week: Wes Eikmeier, Sophomore, Colorado State – The transfer from Iowa State came to Fort Collins with the reputation of being “just a shooter,” capable of knocking down the three, but not likely to be counted on for much else. While he’s lived up to the shooting expectations (having knocked down 33 threes at a 38% clip), he’s shown as a Ram that he’s also pretty good with the dribble, capable of creating shots for himself or teammates with a shot fake and a move. This past week he handed out nine assists in the Rams’ two games, while still very much making teams pay for leaving him free from deep, hitting seven of his 13 three-point attempts. Against BYU he went for a career-high 25 points, hitting five threes, handing out five assists and even grabbing five boards. As the Rams fight for NCAA Tournament consideration, Eikmeier is a key cog in their machine.

Game of the Week: UNLV 63, New Mexico 62 – Both teams came into this battle in Las Vegas off of underachieving losses. But while this was by no means a pretty game, it was a hard-fought battle to the finish. The Rebels seemingly had things in control with just under six minutes left, after seven straight points from Carlos Lopez put them up 56-50. But after a three by freshman Tony Snell, the Lobos held a 61-60 lead with 38 seconds left. From there, Tre’Von Willis, playing in his first game back from a knee injury, came up with a steal leading to a breakaway and Lobo senior guard Dairese Gary got called for a questionable intentional foul in trying to separate Willis from the ball. Willis made both shots, and after UNLV got possession back, Oscar Bellfield was fouled and made one of his shots, putting UNLV up 63-61. After Lobo freshman Kendall Williams turned the ball over on a bad pass, he almost made up for his mistake by coming up with a big steal on the Rebel inbound pass, drawing a foul and getting sent to the line with a chance to tie the game. But, after making the first of two, his second shot was long and the Rebels escaped with a much-needed victory while the Lobos were sent back to Albuquerque with a 1-4 record in conference play.

Game of the Upcoming Week: San Diego State (20-0, 5-0) at BYU (19-1, 5-0), 1/26, 7PM PST, CBS College Sports – The game of the year in the MWC, at least until February 26 when they do it all over in San Diego, should be a classic. With a combined 39 wins between these two teams, there is not even a doubt that these are the best two teams in the conference. There are plenty of interesting matchups here to talk about, but taking a look at the sole BYU loss (to UCLA a week before Christmas) may give us some insight as to what might happen. In that game, UCLA’s big and physical frontline gave the Cougars’ frontcourt all sorts of trouble, outscoring them 60-30 and controlling the boards. Given that SDSU’s frontline is among the best in the nation, BYU will again have their hands full. But the big question is what the Aztecs will do defensively to slow Fredette. In the UCLA game, it was long and athletic Malcolm Lee who slowed Fredette. The Aztecs don’t really have that type of player, but  D.J. Gay and Chase Tapley will each get their shots at guarding him. What this curious fan wants to see is if Steve Fisher maybe pegs Kawhi Leonard to take a couple runs at Fredette.  Leonard has taken on guards like Tre’Von Willis and Dairese Gary at times during his college career, and while he may not have the quickness of Fredette, his strength and length may be enough to give Fredette problems. In the end, whichever team wins the battle of the tempo (BYU wants to play fast, SDSU wouldn’t mind getting into a slugfest) may come out on top, but SDSU’s offensive rebounding prowess (they snatch 37.6% of all available offensive rebounds) and struggles from the free throw line (they shoot just 67.1% from the line) may be two competing areas to keep an eye on. If I had to guess, I’d take the Aztecs, 70-65.

Power Rankings

1. San Diego State (20-0, 5-0): The Aztecs had just one game this week, as they were fortunate enough to have a bye built into their schedule prior to each of their games with BYU this season. On the court, they needed a late run against Air Force to finally put the Falcons away. Leonard had ten points and ten rebounds for the 30th double-double of his career, while Gay followed up his career-high 30 against New Mexico last Saturday with 20 more, including six threes. He now has 13 three-pointers in his last two appearances. But it was Billy White who stepped up to finally put the game away, scoring ten of his 12 points in the middle of an 13-3 SDSU run down the stretch to expand what had been a four-point contest into a 14-point Aztec win.

A look ahead: At BYU on Wednesday night. And if the schedule-makers weren’t to be thanked enough already for the byes before the BYU game on the schedule, they certainly deserve one for scheduling Wyoming after the Cougar game.

2. BYU (19-1, 5-0): We’ve talked plenty about Fredette in these posts this year, and with good reason, but there are plenty of other big contributors to the BYU cause on this roster. Fellow senior Jackson Emery just passed Danny Ainge as the all-time leader in steals at the school and has been a perfect complement to Fredette in the backcourt. He’s knocked down 22 three-pointers in 44 attempts during conference play (after a slightly cool stretch during non-conference play) and his ability to get in passing lanes or pick the pockets of opposing players often fuels BYU’s dynamic transition game. Up front, sophomore Brandon Davies has turned into a consistent offensive threat, since earning Dave Rose’s trust early in the season. After scoring just two points in 15 minutes in the first two games of the season, Davies has scored in double figures in 14 of the last 18 games. In the Cougars wins over TCU and Colorado State this week, he averaged 12.5 points and nine rebounds per game. Then there’s freshman guard Kyle Collinsworth who is just now starting to look comfortable for the Cougs. In the past three games, he’s averaged 12.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and four assists and has turned into a solid offensive option for BYU.

A look ahead: While SDSU gets a feathery-soft landing following the big clash on Wednesday night, BYU has to follow up the game that everyone has been pointing to with a trip to Albuquerque to face an angry Lobo squad on Saturday.

3. Colorado State (13-6, 3-2): The Rams have the third-best record in the conference and they just got done beating UNLV at the Thomas & Mack. My eyes keep telling me that this CSU team isn’t any better than the fifth-best team in the conference; I’m going to an ophthalmologist this week. The Rams followed up their 15-point win at UNLV by keeping BYU within shouting distance for most of the game on Saturday, before finally succumbing, but there were plenty of good signs this week for Tim Miles’ and company. Senior Travis Franklin finally shook off a stretch of down-games following his success in Cancun, by going for 22.5 PPG this week and adding six rebounds a night. Fellow senior Andy Ogide was just as good, racking up 18-point and nine-rebound averages over the week. When those two guys are going strong, they open up a lot of good looks for perimeter players like Eikmeier and sophomore Dorian Green.

A look ahead: CSU travels to UNLV on Wednesday, then hosts BYU on Saturday. Good luck.

4. UNLV (15-5, 3-3): Rebel fans are in need of something of a wake-up call. Since looking great over Thanksgiving weekend en route to a 76 Classic championship, Vegas has looked very ordinary. Defensively, they are stellar. They force turnovers, they harass opposing ballhandlers, they clog up the lane – they are very hard to score against. The problem is on the other end. Sure, if those turnovers they force can get them out in transition, they have some good athletes who excel in the open court (I’m looking at you, Anthony Marshall). But in the halfcourt, there is no one really capable of breaking down a defender and getting his own shot, there is no one whose three-point ability really scares opposing teams, and there is no great offensive rebounder. In short, this is a very ordinary offensive team. And while Reb fans may hold out hope that Willis’ knee problems will disappear just in time for a big NCAA Tournament run, it is looking more and more likely that the Willis we see now is the Willis we’ll see come March. But even if a 09-10 Willis shows back up, is that really enough to turn this Rebel offense into anything more than ordinary? I’m not buying it.

A look ahead: The Rebels travel to Wyoming tonight, then get the weekend off to patch their bones.

5. New Mexico (13-7, 1-4): I’m going to keep holding on to the idea that this Lobo team is a talented squad that is just about ready to turn the corner and cause problems. They’ve got to be, right? Led by senior point guard/bulldog Dairese Gary and with players like Drew Gordon, Philip McDonald, A.J Hardeman and the talented freshman class of Kendall Williams, Alex Kirk, Cameron Bairstow and Tony Snell, isn’t this team too good to be 1-4 in the MWC? Apparently not. Williams has come back to earth a bit after his fiery start, McDonald remains an up-and-down enigma and Gordon has yet to really establish himself as a post-man who demands the ball when things are going good. There is talent here, but it is up to Steve Alford and his senior point to fold the newcomers in with the returning talent, and to this point, that just hasn’t happened.

A look ahead: The Lobos are badly in need of some home cooking, and they’ll get it this week, welcoming TCU to The Pit on Wednesday, then entertaining BYU on Saturday. The Lobos had better handle the Frogs midweek or the home folks will be howling, while the Saturday game sets up pretty nicely for New Mexico.

6. Utah (10-10, 3-3): Back to .500 on the season and in the conference, the Utes are our MWC Team of the Week (see above).

A look ahead: Utah hosts Colorado State on Saturday, following a mid-week bye.

7. Air Force (11-7, 2-3): The Falcons actually gave San Diego State a good run for their money on Wednesday, pulling within 48-44 on consecutive threes by seniors Tom Fow and Derek Brooks. But from there, the Air Force offense went cold and SDSU went to the spurs, using a 13-3 run to propel them to a 13-point win. On Saturday, the Falcons bounced back nicely, however, using 17 first-half points by sophomore Mike Lyons to build up a big early lead and using balanced scoring on the way to an eventual 21-point win over Wyoming.

A look ahead: The Falcons are on the road this week, with trips to Colorado State and TCU ahead.

8. TCU (10-11, 1-5): There aren’t a ton of positives around the TCU basketball program, but we’ve found a couple worth mentioning. First, as Luke Winn points out, junior guard Ronnie Moss was actually incredibly effective against Fredette in the Frogs’ 16-point loss at Provo on Tuesday. Fredette wound up with 21 points, but aside from one of Fredette’s insane 30-foot threes, Moss held him to 0-of-8 shooting in the first half, and allowed just one layup-plus-foul in the second half. Throw in the fact that Moss had 27 points and six rebounds of his own, and that’s not a bad day at the office. Elsewhere on the TCU squad, I’ve just got to mention Hank Thorns this week. The guy is listed at 5’9, which means he’s maybe 5’7. Maybe. And yet he led the Frogs in rebounding in both of their games this week, grabbing a total of 13 boards on the week. He’s also had 40 assists in the past five games, but back to the rebounding thing. Now, TCU is not a massive team across the front line, but their starting frontcourt in their last game went 6’7, 6’9, 6’9. All told, those three guys (Garlon Green, Amric Fields and Nikola Cerina) grabbed 21 rebounds in their last 159 minutes of game time. And the 5’9 Thorns grabbed 13 by himself last week. Good on Thorns, but with that frontcourt production, the 1-5 record is not surprising.

A look ahead: The Frogs travel to New Mexico on Wednesday, and then host Air Force on Saturday.

9. Wyoming (8-11, 1-4): A 21-point loss to Air Force. Sure, the Falcons are an improved team this year, and the Cowboys have lost some players to injuries. But against TCU and Air Force, the two teams with whom the Cowboys could reasonably expect to compete, they have lost by an average of 19.5 points per contest. Now Heath Schroyer and company do get a chance to reprise those matchups in front of a home crowd later in the season, but things are not good in the Wyoming basketball program right now.

A look ahead: And as bad as things have been in Laramie, a visit from UNLV and then a trip to San Diego to face the Aztecs are not exactly the kinds of medicine you prescribe to an injured patient. Hello, 1-6.

Kevin Doyle is an RTC contributor.

Introduction

The week is here, long at last. Going into the season, BYU and San Diego State were projected to be strong, but this strong? Just to give you an idea of where these two juggernauts stood before the season, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll had San Diego State receiving 73 votes and BYU 55 votes in the top 25 poll. In Zach Hayes’ Bracketology—a bracket that, in my mind, is very accurate for his latest edition—he had SDSU as a six seed and BYU a seven. Clearly, each team has exceeded many of the critics and so called experts expectations. Who would have thought that the teams would combine to have a 38-1 record at this stage of the season? Not even Steve Fisher or Dave Rose would have thought that.

In the grand scheme of things, the tilt in Provo, Utah, next week will not have an impact on whether or not either team will make the NCAA Tournament—it is a foregone conclusion that both are in—but this may be San Diego State’s biggest roadblock between them having an undefeated regular season or not. Can the magic carpet ride that San Diego State has been flying on continue, or will Jimmer Fredette and Co. take the air right out from under them? It will all go down on Wednesday evening in Provo.

The Other 26 Rankings

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Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-10 Conferences.

A Look Back

• San Diego State and BYU continued to get separation from the rest of the pack this week, adding three more wins between them and hurtling us one week closer to an epic matchup between the two favorites in Provo on January 26. While BYU’s one game this week was a big 25-point win over intrastate rival Utah (more on that game later), the Aztecs posted the two most impressive wins of the week, getting a home win over UNLV in a slugfest before traveling to New Mexico and getting a 10-point up-tempo win in perhaps their toughest road trip of the season to date (which is saying a lot for a team who has now won 11 games away from the Viejas Arena this season).
• Team of the Week: San Diego State – We’ve pointed out in this space before that sometimes this season, the Aztecs have been guilty of not giving great effort against some of the lesser teams on their schedule. They’ve been known to come out of the chutes a little slow. And while they’ve killed people on the offensive glass, they have been less than impressive on the other backboards at times. None of that was a problem this week. The Aztecs controlled the boards on both ends of the floor against UNLV on Wednesday. They fought and scrapped and harassed Rebel players from the opening jump to the final buzzer in scraping out a six-point win. Then on Saturday, used a completely different up-tempo, fast-breaking, three-point drilling style in overwhelming the Lobos in one of the toughest places to play in America. Kawhi Leonard, Malcolm Thomas, and D.J Gay were all on top of their games this week, and with Duke being upset on Wednesday, the Aztecs now own the longest winning streak in the nation, with a 19-0 record.
• Player of the Week: Kawhi Leonard, Sophomore, San Diego State – Let’s get one thing straight right out of the gate. In a week where Jimmer Fredette posted 47 points, four rebounds, six assists, and two steals on 16-28 shooting with six threes mixed in there, I don’t for a second feel bad about handing the Player of the Week award (and all the glories that accompany it) to someone else. Especially when that someone else posted two dominant double-doubles in one of the tougher back-to-back sets of games of conference play. Leonard averaged 17 points and 16 rebounds this week, and those numbers alone are impressive enough. But throw in four assists in each game. Throw in a total of 16 trips to the line on the week. Throw in harassing defense that limited guys like Philip McDonald and Tre’Von Willis – guys listed in their rosters as guards – to a combined 4-16 from the field for 15 total points, more than eight below their combined average, and you’ll see why Leonard is right there with Fredette in the race for the MWC Player of the Year.
• Newcomer of the Week: Drew Gordon, Junior, New Mexico – This. No, really. Check this out. That alone had me abusing my TiVo remote’s rewind-button repeatedly on Saturday evening. In a game chock full of spectacular plays, that one was beyond the pale. Aside from the highlight reel stuff, Gordon was absolutely dominant in that game, playing his best game as a Lobo, and really, his best game as a collegiate. Against the hyper-athletic Aztec frontline, Gordon kept his Lobos in the game by drawing fouls across the SDSU frontcourt and scoring at will with a combination of feathery-soft jump hooks and athletic putbacks on his way to 23 points and 14 boards. After taking some time to get comfortable with his new squad, the UCLA transfer averaged 19 points and 15 rebounds this week, and while the Lobos are looking up at .500 in conference play, the combination of Gordon and senior point guard Dairese Gary could be a scary proposition down the stretch.
• Game of the Week: San Diego State 87, New Mexico 77 – Have you checked this out yet? My goodness. Down the stretch, this game wasn’t exactly a nailbiter, but there was so much great basketball in this game that I wouldn’t mind going back and watching this one again. Aside from Gordon’s crazy dunk, there was Leonard throwing down a sick dunk on one possession, then coming back down on the very next possession and knocking down a confident three in the face of a Lobo defender, a pair of plays that had to have the NBA scouts in attendance drooling. Then there was the Gay/Gary duel, which made me realize how much I am going to miss those two bulldogs after a couple more months. Gay was outstanding, knocking down seven threes (including a runner at the half-time buzzer to cap a stellar stretch), but also getting to the line with ease and handing out a steady four assists along the way. Then there was Gary’s 23 points, seven assists and four threes as he and Gordon did everything possible to keep the Lobos within striking distance. While the game was never in doubt down the stretch, the play in the meat of the game was enthralling. Last year, the teams’ roles were pretty much reversed, with UNM off to the fast start in the front half of the season and SDSU just beginning to round into shape at the start of conference play. When they met in a classic semifinal matchup in the MWC Tournament, it was SDSU riding steady improvement through February and March who was able to rise up and grab the MWC automatic bid. Don’t be surprised if SDSU and New Mexico meet in the 1/4 matchup in this year’s MWC Semis with the Lobos needing to win to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, and don’t be surprised to see another classic battle.
• Game of the Upcoming Week: New Mexico at UNLV, 1/12, 1PM PST, Vs. – With San Diego State and Brigham Young well-established as the favorites in the conference, this is a battle between the next tier of teams. After starting out an impressive 9-0, the Rebels have now lost four of their last nine games and are in need of a confidence-boosting win. The Lobos currently sit at 1-2 in the conference and have yet to score a major win on the season – a win in Vegas on Saturday would be their first big notch on their potential NCAA Tournament resume. But beating the Rebs at home is easier said than done. They’ll need Gordon to reprise his dominating play this week and exploit a somewhat soft UNLV underbelly, while Gary will need to withstand the harassing Rebel defensive pressure on the perimeter. For the Rebels, it would help if they could find someone to knock down a couple perimeter jumpers. With so much on the line for both teams, this could be a rockfight.

Power Rankings

1. San Diego State (19-0, 4-0): We’ve talked about Leonard and Gay above, so it’s time to check out some other Aztecs here. First, senior Malcolm Thomas has been a great frontcourt pairing with Leonard. He doesn’t need a lot of offense run for him to be effective, he’s plenty capable of converting his nearly three offensive rebounds per game into easy offense and he converts a high percentage of his shots from the field. He brings it on a consistent basis on the defensive end, getting after the defensive glass while also blocking more than two shots a game. Then there’s senior Billy White, who has been quiet of late. He blew up for 30 points and nine rebounds as the Aztecs made a name for themselves early in the season against Gonzaga, but since then he has been quiet. He has scored in double figures just twice in the last month and hasn’t grabbed more than five rebounds since before Thanksgiving. While White doesn’t need to be a big scorer or rebounder for SDSU to be effective, they do need consistent contributions out of him for them to live up to their potential. If he can get back to being an effective third option offensively (behind Leonard and Gay), SDSU’s got a deep March run to look forward to.

A look ahead: The Aztecs host Air Force on Wednesday before getting a bye this weekend in advance of next Wednesday’s colossal trip to BYU.

2. BYU (17-1, 3-0): So, yeah, there was that Fredette 47-point outburst. It was real, and it was spectacular. But it’s just Jimmer. You almost expect those kinds of performances out of him by now. 34 here, 39 there, 22 is a bit of a slow night, make up for it with 49. Ho hum. Oh, and he broke the 2000-point plateau in his career at BYU in the Utah game, and it is not out of the question that he could catch Danny Ainge for the all-time mark. Well, we’ve got 12 more regular season games worth of Fredette and you better get a glimpse of him whenever you can at this point. There are worse ways for a basketball fan to spend a couple of hours. While Fredette’s big game got all the ink, four other Cougars scored in double figures against the Utes, including Jackson Emery who went for 20 and hit a couple of milestones as well, breaking Ainge’s all-time steals record and hitting the 1000-point mark in his Cougar career. On Tuesday night, BYU notched a 26-point win over TCU in which each of their five starters scored in double figures for the second straight game.

A look ahead: After a slow week last week, BYU makes a sneaky-tough trip to Colorado State, a game in which head coach Dave Rose will need to make sure his boys aren’t looking ahead to the visit from the Aztecs.

3. UNLV (14-4, 2-2): The Rebels bounced back from their loss at SDSU with a 12-point win at Air Force. Playing without senior Tre’Von Willis, who missed the game with a knee injury, the Rebels played uninspired ball for most of the first 30 minutes and found themselves trailing by five at the under-eight timeout. But they picked things up defensively down the stretch, held the Falcons scoreless for over six minutes and knocked down their free throws in the end to earn a tough road win. Chace Stanback led the way for UNLV with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Derrick Jasper grabbed 11 more rebounds and handed out six assists.

A look ahead: The Rebels host Colorado State and New Mexico in a pretty tough one-two homestand. Willis is expected to be a game-time decision for the CSU game on Wednesday.

4. New Mexico (13-5, 1-2): While the Lobos have been unable to gather up any momentum to this point on their schedule, you can see this team is starting to get dangerous. Everybody around the conference knows how good Gary is, but now with Gordon beginning to play lights out, the Lobos have two major offensive threats, each of whom is effective on the defensive end. Freshmen wing Kendall Williams and center Alex Kirk have each turned it on at times over the last couple weeks, but each is still susceptible to inconsistency. Then there’s junior Philip McDonald, who remains a bit of an enigma. Head coach Steve Alford relegated him to coming off the bench in their seven-point home win over Colorado State this week, after a series of lackluster performances. However, he responded against the Rams by posting a career-high-tying 27 points. Figuring that McDonald had taken the hint, Alford put him back in the starting lineup against SDSU and he was relatively invisible again, missing all five of his field goal attempts and posting just six points. It’s anybody’s guess where he goes from here, but he’ll need to get going for the Lobos to make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid.

A look ahead: Road trips to Utah and UNLV loom; a road sweep is a dream scenario, a split is perfectly acceptable (although at some point, they’ll need to win some road games against quality competition), and an 0-2 week dooms the Lobos to NIT contention.

5. Colorado State (12-5, 2-1): After dropping the game at The Pit, the Rams returned home and took care of TCU in a solid game. Sophomore point guard Dorian Green (15 PPG) and senior forward Andy Ogide (13.5 PPG, 8 RPG) were the big names this week, but the head coach Tim Miles has to be wondering what happened to Travis Franklin. Since the senior scored 67 points in three games in Hawai’i during the Diamond Head Classic, he has only scored a total of 51 points in the last six games and he has only attempted five field goals per game over that span. He picked things up in the TCU game, going for 14 points on five-of-nine shooting, but the Rams could sure use a more longer-term contribution from Franklin.

A look ahead: CSU travels to UNLV on Wednesday, then hosts BYU on Saturday. Good luck.

6. Air Force (10-6, 1-2): After taking the middle of the week off, the Falcons hosted UNLV on Saturday and were golden for about 32 minutes. Unfortunately, over the next seven minutes they were, well, the opposite of golden. They failed to score for 6:35, gave up a 13-0 Rebel run over that span, and never recovered. While there were any number of factors that contributed to their loss (beyond, you know, not scoring for 6:35), the Falcons struggled most in two areas: rebounding and free throw shooting. While their inability to rebound effectively was not a surprise, their 12/25 shooting from the line was glaring, given their 71% clip prior to the UNLV game.

A look ahead: The Falcons travel to San Diego State on Wednesday for an interesting one. Air Force will likely get killed on the glass, because Air Force always gets killed on the glass and SDSU always kills people on the glass. But, the Falcons will ugly the game up, keep the numbers of possessions to a minimum, and if they can make their shots, could hang around for 30 minutes or so. Or they could lose by 40. Who knows? After that they return back home to host Wyoming in a game that even the most die-hard MWC fan could be excused for missing.

7. Utah (8-10, 1-3): Here’s the thing: a 25-point home loss to the hated in-state rival is never a good thing. Letting the hated in-state rival’s stud guard go for 47? Worse yet, all that happening in the last matchup as conference foes? Pretty disastrous. But, underneath all of that, there were little signs of good things around the Ute program this week. Jim Boylen’s club bounced back from that loss to whip Wyoming on the road. Junior center David Foster, last year’s MWC Defensive Player of the Year, has now played 25 or more minutes for three straight games, something that had only happened one other time all season, and in the process he blocked eight shots and grabbed 23 rebounds. And junior wing Will Clyburn continued his strong season with 47 points, 16 rebounds and six threes on the week. But, turnovers continued to haunt the Utes, most obviously in the BYU game when they turned the ball over 22 times and forced just five. While the problems with the Utah program extend beyond the point guard play, that position is a pretty good microcosm for their struggles: between juniors Josh Watkins and Chris Kupets, there are three more turnovers than assists on the season.

A look ahead: Utah hosts New Mexico, then travels to TCU on Saturday.

8. TCU (10-9, 1-3): The Horned Frogs won at home and lost on the road last week, knocking off Wyoming and losing to Colorado State. The line of the week definitely came from Ronnie Moss, posting 27 points, ten rebounds (not bad for a 6-2 guard), four steals and six threes against Wyoming. Point guard Hank Thorns also made a splash, totaling 19 assists on the week, while freshman forward Amric Fields contributed 14.5 points per contest. The Frogs followed the ten-point loss at Colorado State with a rough road trip to BYU to start this week and headed back to Fort Worth with a 26-point loss for their effort. Moss did go for 27 points again and Thorns had ten more assists, but the game was never competitive.

A look ahead: The Frogs welcome Utah into the Daniel-Meyer Coliseum on Saturday in a game which should help clear up the bottom of the MWC standings.

9. Wyoming (8-10, 1-3): I like to be positive around here. Sure, there are always some negative stories around college basketball, but college hoops fans generally don’t like to dwell on those things. We want to take about kids maturing into good players, coaches getting the most out of their student-athletes and the fun and excitement surrounding the sport we love. In that spirit, I’d like to take you back a couple of weeks ago when Francisco Cruz hit a buzzer-beater for an upset win over New Mexico that lifted the spirits of an entire program, albeit briefly. We can get to this week’s two losses by an average of 17.5 points and the news that junior Afam Muojeke – the team’s leading scorer from last season – will miss the remainder of this year with a ruptured patellar tendon, at some later date.

A look ahead: Wyoming gets the middle of the week off, then travels to Colorado Spring for a meeting with Air Force on Saturday.

As of Wednesday, January 19, we are down to three unbeaten teams in college basketball — #1 Ohio State, #2 Kansas and #5 San Diego State.  Previously undefeated Duke lost last week at Florida State and Syracuse lost Monday at Pittsburgh, proving once again that conference play is a completely different animal than the non-conference slate.  With only a little over six weeks left in the regular season (which seems rather impossible), it is at least feasible that one of these three schools could run the regular season table and join 1991 UNLV and 2004 St. Joseph’s as the only two teams to have done so since Bob Knight’s dominant Indiana Hoosiers way back in 1976. 

If you look at the above teams and hoped to draw a conclusion from it, you might note that UNLV and St. Joe’s played in high mid-major conferences when they ran the regular season table.  Although there were a few decent opponents who could challenge the Rebels and Hawks in those leagues, they generally enjoyed more ‘nights off’ where they didn’t have to bring their best stuff to win the game.  Does this give Steve Fisher’s Aztecs an inherent advantage over OSU and Kansas by virtue of its Mountain West affiliation?  You might initially believe so, but not according to Pomeroy’s projections. 

We talked about how difficult it is for any team to run the table in the regular season back in December when Duke was gettting some buzz in that respect prior to Kyrie Irving’s toe injury.  There are any number of factors that can cause an off night, but the biggest confounding factor is how the schedule lays out in front of them.  According to the Pomeroy data, SDSU will be favored in all but two remaining games, Ohio State all but one, and Kansas will be the favorite in each of its final thirteen games.  But that’s just the math — it doesn’t account for the increasing attention and pressure that builds on a team as it approaches March with a zero in the right-hand column, nor does it consider all the other issues (injuries, team chemistry, tiring out, etc.) that teams face as the season wears on.  That’s what we’re here for, the analysis. 

Let’s take a look at the three unbeaten teams and make an educated prediction as to when each will finally lose.  It’s going to happen; the only question is the when and where.  Last year we went 3-1 in this exercise, and if we can do so well as to keep our head above .500 again this year, we’ll be pleased. 

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Andrew Murawa is the RTC correspondent for the Mountain West and Pac-10 conferences.

A Look Back

With the first week of conference play in the books, we’ve already had a big battle between a couple of the favorites, an upset of a team hoping to make its case for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament field and quite a few other interesting battles around the conference. The big statement of the week was BYU’s trip to UNLV on Wednesday night, where the Cougars came away with their first win in their last nine games against UNLV in the Thomas & Mack behind a sparkling 39-point performance by Jimmer Fredette, who has now officially thrown his hat into the ring as a National Player of the Year candidate. Fredette threw in seven increasingly improbable threes in getting the big Running Rebels off of BYU’s collective back, with backcourt mate Jackson Emery adding six more for good measure, as BYU pulled away in the second half and then withstood a too-late UNLV run to hold on for the big win. Given BYU’s struggles at the Thomas & Mack, that win was something of a surprise, but Wyoming defending their homecourt and knocking off New Mexico on Saturday may be the big take-away from the weekend. The Cowboys limped through their non-conference schedule, but were able to deliver a big early blow to the Lobos at-large hopes when junior Francisco Cruz hit the buzzer-beating game winner following the Cowboys’ second offensive rebound of their final possession. Elsewhere, form more or less held true.

• Team of the Week: BYU – It cannot be overstated how big of a win the Cougars pulled off against UNLV last Wednesday. In terms of this year’s regular season conference race, the win over the Running Rebels clearly establishes BYU as the “1-A” to San Diego State’s “1”. But on a bigger scale, it is a large mental hurdle that has been cleared by Dave Rose and his squad. Not only is it the first win by any player on this roster over UNLV at the Thomas & Mack Center, it is also the first win of its kind of the Rose era at BYU. Including last year’s crushing 70-66 loss in the Mountain West Conference Tournament semifinals and two other losses to UNLV in MWC Tournament finals, BYU had lost at UNLV eight times in the last five seasons. And those losses came in all manner of ways, from the 75-74 battle in 2009 to the 70-41 shellacking in 2008. The Cougars found all sorts of different ways to leave Vegas on a losing skid – a feeling I’m sure plenty of us can relate to. But now, with a 16-1 record and a convincing win over their nemesis, perhaps BYU can leave their doubts behind in Vegas and use that win as a springboard for the rest of the season.
• Player of the Week: Jimmer Fredette, Senior, BYU – Just a typical week for Fredette: 61 points, nine rebounds, seven assists, ten three-pointers in 21 attempts and a whole host of wow-inducing, TiVo-rewinding, and soul-crushing (for his defenders, at least) buckets. At this point, he’s taken down this award four times, and with his nearly 25 points per night, you can expect to see his name pop up here a few more times in his final couple months as one of the most exciting college basketball players in the land. And, if you’re not planning on doing so already, make it a point to watch this guy play at least once a week for the rest of the season. Every remaining BYU game is televised somewhere, and believe me, this guy is as close to must-see-TV as it gets in college hoops this season.
• Newcomer of the Week: Francisco Cruz, Junior, Wyoming – There hasn’t been much to write home about coming out of Wyoming basketball these last couple years. On the heels of last year’s 10-21 eight-place finish, the Cowboys struggled to a .500 record in non-conference play this year. But in their home conference opener on Saturday night, “Paco” hit the game-winning shot that, at least temporarily, put smiles on the faces of concerned Wyoming players, coaches, and fans. His overall numbers this week won’t blow you away (10.5 PPG, 3-11 from three), but the JuCo transfer from Nogales, Mexico has thus far been the sole consistent shooter on a Cowboy team limited by injuries and inexperience, knocking down 42% of his three-pointers and 89% of his free throws. He won’t amaze you with his athleticism, but if you give this dead-eye shooter a clean look from deep – or even a contested look off a scramble for a loose rebound in the closing seconds, as in the case of the New Mexico game – odds are he’ll make you pay.
• Game of the Week: Wyoming 67, New Mexico 66 – Let’s start here with just over a minute left, with the Cowboys up 64-61and New Mexico, who had been carried by senior point guard Dairese Gary all day long, coming out of a timeout. With everybody in the place thinking Gary would be the guy called on to make a play, the Lobos found freshman forward Alex Kirk popping out to the three-point line and stroking the jumper to tie the game. On the next possession, Cowboy sophomore Desmar Jackson drove wildly to the hoop and missed an out-of-control runner, but in shades of things to come, the Lobos were unable to secure the ball, allowed Jackson to retrieve it and draw a foul to get to the line, where he made one of two to give Wyoming the lead back. New Mexico came back, however, this time behind Gary, who drew a foul of his own and made both buckets to regain the lead for the Lobos, setting up Wyoming’s final possession. With about ten seconds left, Cruz launched a three from the corner, which bounced harmlessly away, but the Lobos, without the services of big men A.J. Hardeman and Drew Gordon who had both previously fouled out, were again unable to secure the rebound. Wyoming’s Daylen Harrison found the ball and put up his own attempt at a game winner, which again clanged off the rim. This time the ball found its way back to Cruz, who threw up an off-balance, desperation prayer at the buzzer which dropped in and wound up as the game-winner for the Cowboys.
• Game of the Upcoming Week: UNLV @ San Diego State, 1/12, 7PM PST, CBS College Sports – A week ago, it was UNLV and BYU kicking off conference play, but this time around San Diego State gets the first of its two big tests this week, when the Running Rebels come calling to Viejas Arena for what is likely the Aztecs biggest test of the season so far. With Lon Kruger’s squad having already dropped a game at home, they’ll look to steal a road game against the conference favorite to get back into the mix of teams at the top of the conference. Two keys to this game will be rebounding and three-point shooting, a couple areas where both teams can struggle at times. While SDSU is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, grabbing 37.8% of their own misses, they have struggled at times this season cleaning their defensive glass. UNLV hasn’t been particularly good rebounding at either end, so the Aztecs’ big and athletic frontline could have a chance to gain a significant advantage on the glass. From behind the arc, both teams rank lower than 200th in the nation in three-point percentage, but each team has a player who can hit from deep as SDSU’s James Rahon and UNLV’s Oscar Bellfield are both shooting at a greater than 40% clip from three. In the end, if either team can establish significant advantages in either of those areas, that could be the difference in the game.

Power Rankings

1. San Diego State (17-0, 2-0): At this point, the Aztecs are going to get everybody’s best shot – and they might as well get used to it, so long as that unblemished record and lofty national ranking continues. This week, both TCU and Utah gave SDSU at least one good half, before fading a bit coming out of the locker room. But once again, the Aztecs struggled a bit on the glass. While they dominated on the offensive boards, grabbing 35% of all available offensive rebounds, they allowed their opponents to grab over 30% of their own offensive rebounds. Another running theme for Steve Fisher’s club is their inability to get to the line consistently. Against TCU, they only earned six free throw attempts, before getting there 18 times against Utah. To be fair, given the way the Aztecs shot against Utah (they made just eight of their 18 attempts), perhaps it is understandable that they avoid the charity stripe, but with their size and athleticism, this SDSU team should be earning drastically more free-throw attempts than they currently are. Yes, the undefeated streak continues, and yes, this team is right there with the most talented teams in the country, but if the Aztecs don’t do a better job controlling the glass and getting to the free throw line, that goose egg on the right side of their record is going to disappear very soon.

A look ahead: After hosting the Running Rebels on Wednesday, the Aztecs head to Albuquerque for one of the tougher road trips in the MWC. Two wins this week would be a mighty impressive result, while two losses is not an impossibility.

2. BYU (16-1, 2-0): After knocking off UNLV in the conference opener, the Cougars were riding high. So it came as no particular surprise that BYU, while remaining in control throughout, looked uninspired and workmanlike in beating Air Force by ten on Saturday. Fredette followed up his 39-point performance in Vegas with a quiet 22-point effort, while junior scrapper Noah Hartsock double-doubled and added a couple three-pointers for good measure. Sophomore forward Brandon Davies completed a strong week as well, averaging 12.5 points and eight rebounds in the two wins.

A look ahead: The Cougars head to Salt Lake for their big intrastate battle with Utah before enjoying a bye on Saturday. San Diego State’s visit to the Marriott Center looms in the minds of MWC fans, but that matchup is still two weeks away.

3. UNLV (13-3, 1-1): The BYU loss is a bit concerning, but could be easily swept aside by Rebel fans with an under-the-breath muttering of “Fredette” and an eye-roll, but in reality, for about 20 minutes in the middle of that game, UNLV was getting whooped up and down the court by a significantly better team. Their vaunted defense did little to slow BYU’s guards during that run (the Cougars wound up with only one more turnover on the game than the Rebels) and their offense sputtered when they had to rely on their half-court offense. UNLV did bounce back to thrash TCU on Saturday, forcing 23 turnovers and getting plenty of easy looks in transition, but they’ll need to be able to do that against teams like BYU and SDSU in order to prove that they can be a threat come March.

A look ahead: Living on the road this week, with the big battle against SDSU on Wednesday preceding a sneaky matchup with Air Force on Saturday. If the Rebels can keep free and clean in these two, they’ll be right back in the conversation with SDSU and BYU at the top of the conference.

4. New Mexico (12-4, 0-1): Weird week for the Lobos. While all the rest of their MWC brethren were kicking off conference play on Tuesday and Wednesday, New Mexico was knocking CS Bakersfield around to the tune of a 40-point blowout. Alex Kirk broke Kenny Thomas’ New Mexico record for points scored in a game by a freshman with a 31-point explosion and Drew Gordon double-doubled, but given the overmatched opposition, the game meant little. When they did get around to opening conference play, they stumbled against Wyoming, turning the ball over 19 times. Dairese Gary kept the Lobos in the game with 24 points, and Chad Adams helped out by hitting all three of his three-point attempts, but aside from those two, the rest of the New Mexico players combined to make just 13 of their 34 field goal attempts. In the end, it is just one bad loss, eerily familiar to Wyoming’s upset of San Diego State at the start of conference play last season. The lesson here for Steve Alford to preach is that this is a loss that can be overcome, much like SDSU did last year, and you can never, ever, overlook anyone in conference play.

A look ahead: With the loss to Wyoming in their rearview mirror, the Lobos have a chance to make a big splash in the MWC this week, with Colorado State and San Diego State both visiting the Pit where New Mexico has gone 15-1 the last two seasons.

5. Colorado State (11-4, 1-0): At this point, the Rams have to be considered right there with New Mexico in a mini-tier of teams below the top three in the conference, teams who still have a ways to go before they can feel like they’ve made their case for at-large inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. While UNM has the loss to Wyoming under their belts, CSU started off conference play with a 13-point home win against those very same Cowboys. Senior Adam Nigon led the way in the opener with seven three-pointers for his 21 points and sophomore Pierce Hornung grabbed a season-high 12 rebounds as they bounced back from a 13-point first half deficit to run away in the second half. For the Rams to have any prayer at an at-large bid, they’ll need to continue to beat the teams at the bottom half of this conference while sneaking up on a couple teams above them. 

A look ahead: The road trip to New Mexico is a good chance for the Rams to separate themselves from the Lobos, with a TCU visit to Fort Collins following on Saturday.

6. Air Force (10-5, 1-1): The Falcons start out conference play with a brutal stretch, with BYU, UNLV and San Diego State the opponents in successive games. That stretch made their opener with Utah all the more important, and the Falcons responded well, keeping things close throughout and then making big plays down the stretch. After a well-fought game, it looked like Air Force was on the verge of letting the Utes get away with a road victory, when junior Will Clyburn hit two straight threes to give Utah a 67-66 lead with under three minutes to play. But, sophomore guard Mike Lyons converted a three-point play opportunity –  perhaps the most important points of his game and career-high 26 – with just under two minutes left to give the Falcons a lead which they never again relinquished. The next time down the floor, senior Derek Brooks hit a three and the Falcons made their free-throws down the stretch and when the buzzer sounded, they had an eight-point win to start conference play. In their ten-point loss to BYU on Saturday, Lyons again led the way with 14 points, but despite a valiant effort, Air Force was simply outclassed by the Cougars.

A look ahead: Home against UNLV, then a road trip to San Diego State. The good news about this run of games is that once they get through these, they’ll have a series of far-more-manageable opponents.

7. TCU (9-8, 0-2): It’s a brutal start to conference play for the Horned Frogs, as they faced the conference favorite Aztecs to open and an angry UNLV team in game two. TCU hung around with SDSU for a half, trailing by just a 29-26 margin at the break, but a 13-0 Aztec run in the second half broke that game open. Their trip to Vegas went down the chutes much more quickly, however, as 14 first half turnovers doomed the Frogs to a 49-28 halftime deficit. All in all, it was a terrible week for junior guard Ronnie Moss, who had 16 turnovers this week – including ten in the UNLV game alone – and hit just seven of his 23 field goal attempts. Sophomore Garlon Green led TCU in scoring this week, averaging 12 points per game.

A look ahead: This week’s slate looks much more manageable, with a visit by Wyoming to the Daniel-Meyer Coliseum backed up by their trip to Colorado State on Saturday.

8. Utah (7-9, 0-2): Following the tough loss to Air Force, the Utes came out and battled the #6 team in the country, San Diego State, to a standstill for much of their meeting. At the half, Utah led 34-33, but four second-half threes by SDSU’s D.J. Gay – each part of a larger Aztec run – led to the Utes coming up nine-points short of an upset. While there is no such thing as a moral victory at this level of competition, head coach Jim Boylen had to be pleased with the way his team played. Junior center David Foster got just his third start of the season and freshman J.J. O’Brien his sixth after each has battle injuries in the early going, and they provided size up front to allow the Utes to compete with SDSU’s frontline. But it was juniors Josh Watkins and Will Clyburn who led the way on the stat sheet, with Watkins going for a game-high 24 points and Clyburn adding 17 points and ten rebounds in the loss.

A look ahead: The Utes host BYU in their last go-round at the Huntsman Center as conference foes on Wednesday night. On Saturday, they battle Wyoming for the right to be listed as the eight-best team in the conference in this space next week.

9.  Wyoming (8-8, 1-1): The win over New Mexico was such a good thing for this program that even Lobo fans had to smile for a split second at the celebration following the Cruz buzzer-beater. Given the depths to which this program has sunk over the course of last season and this year’s non-conference schedule, given the injuries to vital players, given the roster defections, you could almost see the weight lift off the shoulders of head coach Heath Schroyer as the shot fell through the net. And, aside from the win, there was more good news that Cowboy fans were able to take away from the game on Saturday, as junior center Adam Waddell, who has struggled with tendinitis in his Achilles’ Heel over this winter, had his most effective game of the season, playing 23 minutes (his second-highest total of the season), scoring 16 points and grabbing eight rebounds (both season highs). It remains to be seen if this is the first step on his way back to regular action, or if this was an island of health in a sea of injury, but for now, Cowboy fans can have some hope for Waddell’s future. The same cannot be said for junior Afam Muojeke, who missed Saturday’s game with continued complications from his patellar tendon injury at the end of last season. Muojeke has played in ten of Wyoming’s 16 games, but has never been near 100% this season and his status going forward remains to be seen.

A look ahead: Wyoming travels to TCU, then returns home to host Utah in a couple of games that should show us where these teams near the bottom of the standings are in relation to one another.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

We’re going to mix it up today with this feature. With so many good games tonight (one of the best nights of the season thus far) here are some quick hitters on 10 important games you should be following this evening, including the top five teams in the land all playing on the road. Additionally, key conference battles are on tap throughout the night. Enjoy it, folks. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#2 Ohio State @ Michigan – 6:30 pm on Big Ten Network (***)

The Wolverines nearly knocked off Kansas on Sunday and they’ll get another crack at a top three team tonight when their rivals visit Ann Arbor. Michigan has to shoot the three well to win but that’ll be difficult against an Ohio State defense ranked in the top five in efficiency. Though Darius Morris (15.0 PPG, 7.0 APG) will try his best, Ohio State has too much talent and offensive firepower for Michigan to handle. Michigan needs their best defensive effort of the year combined with an off night for the Buckeyes in order to have a chance. John Beliein can rotate plenty of bodies on Jared Sullinger but that may be a futile effort against the uber-talented big man.

Sullinger, Lighty, and Co. Have Bucknuts Already Looking Forward to March (and April)

#5 Pittsburgh @ #19 Georgetown – 7 pm on ESPN (****)

The Hoyas are in serious danger of dropping to 1-4 in conference play as Pitt comes to DC. Georgetown hasn’t shot the ball well recently and has lost three of four as a result. The inconsistent play of point guard Chris Wright can certainly be blamed, but take a deeper look at the numbers. Georgetown’s defense is rated #61 in efficiency; not terrible, but it’s the lowest-rated Hoyas defense in six years (#66 in the ’04-’05 season). The Hoyas have given up 66.6 PPG, not a good number when your adjusted tempo is only 66.5 possessions and rated #228 in the country, indicating a slower pace. Georgetown’s dynamic guard trio has certainly struggled, a key reason why they’ve lost three of four, but the defense has also played a part and must get better. It’ll be put to the test against a Pitt offense rated the best in the land. The Panthers can punish you inside and out as well as on the glass. Yours truly has maintained for a while that this Pitt team is the best interior passing group in America and I see no reason to back off that statement. What Jamie Dixon has built in Pittsburgh year after year is quite remarkable but this may be his best offensive squad ever. The Panthers have played just one true road game all year (at Providence) but they’re experienced and so well-coached that it doesn’t figure to affect them all that much. Expect a desperate Georgetown team to come out ready to play, but we’ll take the Panthers here in a close one.

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Conference play has started and it is a glorious thing. While non-conference play has its charms (who doesn’t love to see heavyweights go at it?), conference play has a special allure. Games are exciting when there is history, and that’s what conferences offer: a history of rivalries and past meetings that add a little bit of spice to each new meeting. And while old wounds may ache, it’s the new ones that sting: The best part of conference play is the home-and-away series; to better understand  the meaning of Duke and Ohio State’s close scrapes this past week, we need to understand home cooking.

Home Cooking, the Way Mom Used To Do...

“Home cooking.” When we talk basketball, we understand that this phrase is a euphemism for home-court advantage, a catch-all for the widely-discussed yet still mysterious phenomenon. Teams win more when they play on their home court. This is a fact. It’s the “why” that’s much more complicated, and there are many explanations. The “home cooking” euphemism itself is a partial explanation, metonymy for all the comforts of home: sleeping better in your own bed, being able to stick to your own routine, and, of course, literally getting to eat a home-cooked meal. Taken altogether, the psychological benefits of these things (coupled with the converse disadvantage of opponents lacking these things) is supposed to account for the edge that comes with playing at home. Of course, savvier or maybe just more cynical people hear “home cooking” and their minds turn to matters more sinister than mom’s meatloaf. “Home cooking” to these folks means referee bias in favor of the home team. The innocent and idealistic amongst us shudder at the thought, but the harsh reality is that referee bias is real.

Kyle Anderson and David Pierce in a 2009 article published in The Journal of Sports Sciences outline a series of systematic referee biases in men’s college basketball. In addition to being more likely to call fouls on the team with the lead and on the team with the fewest fouls, referees really do call more fouls on the visiting team. Also, oddly enough, these effects are more pronounced when the game is on national television. But, of course, home court advantage is bigger than just getting a few fouls going in favor of the home team, isn’t it?

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David Ely is an RTC Contributor

It wasn’t the best of weeks for TWTW. Notre Dame and Kentucky failed to live up to TWTW’s lofty praise heaped upon them. Notre Dame’s defense allowed Marquette to shoot 53.1% from the field and 70.6% from three in a 22-point loss, and the Wildcats lost their SEC opener after TWTW proclaimed them a sure-thing to come close to running the table in conference.

What will TWTW say this week that in seven-days will seem ridiculous? Let’s find out…

What We Learned

Walker Is Still Your Leader In the POY Race. (P. Raycraft/Hartford Courant)

Connecticut probably wasn’t quite in panic mode yet, but no team scored a bigger win than the Huskies with their road win at Texas on Saturday. After a 12-0 start to the regular season, the Huskies stumbled to a 1-2 start in the Big East. UConn barely beat USF at home on Dec. 32, and that game was sandwiched between road losses at Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. Considering how young the Huskies are (they play six freshmen) and their dependence on Kemba Walker, the slump definitely cast doubts on the Huskies’ bona fides as a national contender. UConn seems to have its mojo back now, as other players proved they can step up in big games. The Huskies received a tremendous effort from Alex Oriakhi (11 points, 21 rebounds), while Roscoe Smith and Shabazz Napier contributed 13 and 15 points, respectively. UConn even survived one of the most mind-boggling shots in recent history: Smith’s full-court heave with more than 10 seconds left in regulation. If you can win in spite of a play like that, you have to think you’re destined for big things this season.

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The Lede.  It was an eventful night across the college basketball landscape, from Tennessee’s beatdown to Jimmer’s blow-up and the general sense that Duke might never lose a game again.  There were undefeated teams staying undefeated and there were disappointing teams staying disappointing.  Let’s flesh it out.

Fredette Was Unconscious at Times Tonight (LV Sun/J. Bowen)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Must-See Jimmer.  Was it when Jimmer Fredette pulled up from 28 feet the first time or the second time?  Was it when Memphis missed its second 1-on-5 fast break or the third time against Tennessee?  Since we’re feeling charitable tonight, we’ll go with Jimmer.  Thanks to CBS College Sports for allowing the nation to see BYU’s game at UNLV tonight, because otherwise, Fredette’s superb 39-point performance would have just ended up as another box score line without any real context for how ridiculously hot this guy can get.  Here’s a brief synopsis: at the five-minute mark of the first half, Fredette had five points and was 2-8 from the floor.  Not coincidentally, BYU was down eight points and looking shaky in a rocking Thomas & Mack Center.  Then: 3-ball, 3-ball, 3-ball, 3-ball.  All before halftime, as BYU took a three-point lead into the break.  Fredette hit three more in the second half and Jackson Emery added six more himself as the Cougars tormented UNLV from the perimeter with ball-fakes leading to open jumpers and pull-ups off the delayed break.  When Dave Rose’s team is hitting bombs like they were tonight (14-28), they appear unbeatable; of course, that’s not always the case, but Fredette is approaching that JJ Redick/Adam Morrison level of explosiveness where his games are nearly must-watch theater just in case you miss something special.

Tonight’s Quick Hits...

• Heir Jordan.  UCF moved to a perfect 14-0 after defeating Marshall tonight, as the younger progeny of MJ (Marcus) seems to have really found his confidence.  He blew up for his second consecutive game of 26 points (plus six rebounds and five assists), and it’s clear that the sophomore guard is asserting control over this team.  He is looking to attack the basket relentlessly, and although he doesn’t have the athleticism or size of his pops, he’s showing an ability to get into the paint, create scoring opportunities and draw fouls (6.5 per game).  We’re starting to wonder if he isn’t just scratching the surface of his talent.
• Forget Singler — We Should Be Talking Nolan Smith For NPOY.  Kyle Singler is still a fantastic player (he passed the 2,000-point mark at Duke tonight), but his teammate Nolan Smith is killing it right now and frankly deserves to be in the NPOY discussion at this point in the year.  In his last five games, the senior guard is averaging 26 PPG and knocking down over 60% of his twos and threes.  On the season, he’s at 20/5/6 APG and it’s hard to believe that we all thought Duke might struggle somewhat without Kyrie Irving around to run the Blue Devil offense.  Obviously, ACC defenses are familiar with how to play Smith after three previous seasons defending him, but we have to give it up for the guy.  He’s only getting better and better.
• Bruce Pearl With His Back Against the Wall.  It never fails.  EVERY time the Vol coach looks like he’s down and out in Knoxville, his team comes out and plays like a top ten team.  We’ll get to Josh Pastner’s band of buffoons below (seriously, someone ranked them?), but in the last game before Pearl’s SEC-imposed suspension, his team ran, shot, blocked and dunked all over intrastate rival Memphis tonight.  The twenty-point margin was a gift, honestly, as UT spent most of the game up thirty points or more.  That this same Tennessee team lost to Charlotte, Oakland and Charleston shows that the only problem with Pearl’s team is between the temples — when they are focused and ready to play, they’re as talented as all but a few teams in America.  Oh, and PS… his quote that he told his team they shouldn’t get too excited over beating a CUSA team… priceless.

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