1. Seth Davis published his annual Stock Report on Tuesday, and it’s full of interesting tidbits as usual.  His biggest on-a-limb prediction comes with Roy Williams’ North Carolina Tar Heels, who he has listed as a “buy-plus.”  While it’s looking more and more like the Heels are the second best team in the ACC, that’s not really something to hang one’s hat on this year — half of the Big East, Big Ten and Big 12 would also be the second best team in the ACC.  He’s certainly entitled to his opinion and he gets more of these predictions right than he does wrong, but we think he’s off on this one.  UNC, by virtue of the weak ACC, will end up back in the Top 25 polls with a reasonable record; but without a legitimate point guard threat and a Charmin-soft interior, Williams’ teams tend to sputter, and we see the Heels as no better than a Second Round team this year.  While on the subject of Davis… he, Luke Winn and Andy Glockner put together their mid-season Crystal Ball projections yesterday.  The biggest surprise there?  All three writers had Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger as their NPOY.  So why, again, was it so stupid for the AP writers to take a risk in putting UNC freshman Harrison Barnes on its preseason All-American first team?  The “freshman” part, as we all should know by now, isn’t the problem — the voters just got the wrong frosh.
2. We discussed this Sunday night as part of our weekend After the Buzzer, but ESPN commentator Ron Franklin was let go by the company on Tuesday for his condescending run-in with sideline reporter Jeannine Edwards prior to last week’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl broadcast.  Franklin was never one of our favorite ESPN guys from an analytical perspective and his bias for the Big 12 was often astonishing in its transparency (although not to Mike Patrick/ACC proportions), but his smooth baritone voice was a calming and resonant one for us through many cold winter nights.  We hope that he’s learned some kind of a lesson from this embarrassing incident, but we doubt he has; rather, the only lesson learned here is that nobody in this industry should ever screw with Ms. Edwards.
3. According to Connie Joseph, Devoe Joseph’s mother, the Minnesota guard who was reportedly “suspended” from the team is actually transferring out of the program.  She said that he made his decision after the New Year’s Eve loss to Michigan State, and did not attend practices over the weekend.  The Gophers struggled at home tonight against Indiana, but it’s unclear to some whether the Gophers will feel his absence.  We’re not sure you can ever completely survive the loss of a talented player like Joseph, but sometimes the headache just isn’t worth it.  With some young players as well as Blake Hoffarber and (currently) Al Nolen at his disposal, Tubby Smith still has a very talented team that will compete in the Big Ten.  He cannot afford any more suspensions or incidents, though.
4. At some point schools are going to wise up and train players on the simple matter of tact and taste when giving quotes to reporters.  We know that some places already do this, but usually those trainings are focused on avoiding hot-button words, topics and answering with deflections in complete sentence form.  Earlier this week K-State star Jacob Pullen told 1350 KMAN in the Kansas City area that he felt “like Michael Vick in some ways” as a result of his three-game suspension for receiving impermissible benefits from a local department store.  Right.  It’s a good thing modern players have very little sense of world history or we’d probably hear a lot more Holocaust references made when referring to unfortunate group situations.  Memo to Pullen — no, you don’t feel like Michael Vick.  He went to prison and is universally reviled by most of America as a disgusting human being who hurt innocent animals for sport; you were suspended (not imprisoned) which meant you went back to your dorm for a few days and watched television.  These two things are in no way similar — stop the hyperbole.
5. We knew that Georgetown and Syracuse are old Big East rivals who really don’t care for one another.  But we had no idea that it had gotten to this level of distaste for the other.  Georgetown has made an executive decision that it will not sell individual tickets to non-GU students and alumni for its February 9 game against SU at the Verizon Center in DC (ticketmaster site here).  Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician believes that this is a direct and proximate cause of Orange fans filling up the Hoyas’ home arena with its strong alumni base located in the Washington area, and they make a convincing argument to that effect.  But like great fans always do, the Cuse faithful have already figured out the workaround, and let’s hope for the sake of anti-protectionism that SU fills half the building with orange on that day.

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

A Look Back

Conference play has finally started in the Big Ten and it came with some surprises – like Indiana losing at home to Penn State and Minnesota being 0-2, but mostly it’s business as usual here in the deepest conference in America.

Team of the Week: Illinois.  The Fighting Illini are 2-0 in conference with a victory over Iowa in Iowa City and a win at home against Wisconsin. That’s good enough to get the award this week. Demetri McCamey leads his team against Northwestern on Thursday at home in an in-state rivalry game.

Player of the Week: E’Twaun Moore, G, Purdue.  Moore averaged 26.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in two wins for the Boilermakers last week. He started the game against Northwestern, shooting 5-6 from three-point range as Purdue built an early advantage.

Newcomer of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State.  Sullinger won the Big Ten’s official Freshman of the Week award for the seventh time this season by averaging 18.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game against overmatched Tennessee-Martin and Indiana front court players. His numbers will just keep getting better as Thad Matta is forced to play him more in Ohio State’s closer conference games.

Power Rankings

• 1. Ohio State (14-0, 1-0) – The Buckeye express continues to roll along. Early season slip-ups by Minnesota mean that Ohio State might not play a real tough conference game until January 22 against Illinois.
• 2. Purdue (13-1, 2-0) – The Boilermakers went to Ann Arbor and handled Michigan with ease to start conference play. Northwestern tried to give them a game, but E’Twaun Moore was just too much for the Wildcats to handle.
• 3. Michigan State (9-4, 1-0) – Big game for Michigan State on Monday night at Northwestern. Can Tom Izzo’s team turn it on in conference play? Friday’s victory over Minnesota sure was a good start.
• 4. Illinois (10-3, 2-0) – See the “Team of the Week” section above.
• 5. Wisconsin (11-3, 1-1) – Playing at Illinois is a tough second game of conference play, but the Badgers return home to the Kohl Center to take on Michigan this week for a bit of a breather.
• 6. Minnesota (11-3, 0-2) – No team in the country has a harder conference schedule to start out with games at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and then at Ohio State as the Golden Gophers’ first three Big Ten games. Thus Tubby Smith has to find a way to get a victory over a reeling Indiana on Tuesday.
• 7. Michigan (11-3, 1-1) – Don’t look now, but the Wolverines are starting to sneak into the NCAA bubble territory and are one of Joe Lunardi’s first four out. A murderous next three games at Wisconsin, home versus Kansas and Ohio State, gives Darius Morris and company three chances to get that marquee win the resume is currently lacking.
• 8. Northwestern (9-2, 0-1) – If Minnesota doesn’t have the hardest schedule to start conference play, than Northwestern probably does. The Wildcats started at Purdue – and lost – and now play Michigan State and at Illinois this week.
• 9. Penn State (8-5, 1-1) – Winning at Indiana boosts this team up a bit in the rankings.
• 10. Iowa (7-6, 0-1) – The Hawkeyes have to be looking at Northwestern’s trip to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on January 12 as the team’s next possible victory. Unfortunately, they go to Ohio State and Purdue comes to town before that game.
• 11. Indiana (9-6, 0-2) – The Hoosiers lost the battle for last place to Penn State in the first game of the season, 69-60.

A Look Ahead (all times EST)

While every game is big in conference play, here are the key match-ups to keep an eye on in the upcoming week. It also includes one special non-conference CBS Sunday afternoon treat.

• 1/3 – Michigan State at Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/5 – Michigan at Wisconsin, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/6 – Northwestern at Illinois, 9 p.m., ESPN2
• 1/9 – Minnesota at Ohio State, 2 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 1/9 – Kansas at Michigan, 4:30 p.m., CBS

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: While most Big Ten teams have only played one or two games there is in-conference efficiency margin data available! Here are some fun nuggets from the first few games.

• Best Offense: Ohio State – 1.308 points per possession
• Best Defense: Michigan State and Purdue – 0.969 points per possession
• Luckiest: Michigan – 0.57 games ahead of expected
• Unluckiest: Minnesota – 0.36 games behind expected

Ohio State and Purdue are currently at the top of the conference. With Northwestern and Indiana bringing up the rear. You can see more about these at Chicago College Basketball.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

A really good schedule awaits college basketball fans today on your New Year’s Eve. The Battle of the Bluegrass gets things going right away with an early noon tip, a game tailor made for Gus Johnson. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#12 Kentucky @ Louisville — 12 pm on CBS (*****)

Louisville will be shorthanded in this game but is favored according to the Vegas odds. The Cardinals, still without Jared Swopshire, will also be missing the services of Rakeem Buckles and Mike Marra this afternoon. Still, this is a game you must watch with Gus Johnson on the call. It is a unique rivalry that doesn’t get enough press and has only heated up with the addition of John Calipari and the switch of Rick Pitino from Kentucky blue to Louisville red. It started almost 100 years ago in 1913 but the teams have only met 41 times prior to today with Kentucky holding a 27-14 edge. These teams did not meet for 24 years from 1959 until an elite eight NCAA Tournament game on March 26, 1983. They have met every year since then with UK leading 18-11 in the modern era. One interesting fact is that Kentucky has never failed to win at least two games in a row after winning one throughout the entire history of this series. With the Wildcats on a one game winning streak entering the game today, that statistic, though ultimately meaningless, would suggest a UK win. Expect this game to feature a lot of threes, a big part of each team’s offense. Kentucky actually has five guys who can knock down a triple, much more than the average team. Doron Lamb and Preston Knowles are the big shooters for their respective teams with Lamb being the better of the two so far this year. The freshman has connected on 54% of his treys including a seven for eight performance against Winthrop, a large part of Kentucky’s #13 three point percentage. Knowles is Louisville’s leading scorer and a good defender who teams with Peyton Siva to really disrupt opponents on the defensive end. That will be a big factor against Kentucky point guard Brandon Knight, averaging almost four turnovers per game. Rick Pitino loves the zone press so expect a lot of trapping and aggressive on-ball defense from the Cardinals, trying to get Knight out of a rhythm and make him turnover-prone. As a whole, Kentucky takes remarkably good care of the ball with only 11 turnovers as a team. Calipari needs a good point guard to run his dribble drive offense and Knight is often the key to their success. He had an awful game in a loss to Connecticut and fouled out after committing six turnovers in UK’s loss to North Carolina. In the front court, Kentucky has the best player on the floor in Terrence Jones. The 6’8 freshman can score from almost anywhere on the floor and uses his superior athleticism effectively to create space. Another T.J., Terrence Jennings, has to have a good game defensively for Louisville. He’s a good shot blocker and must neutralize Jones inside. Despite their reliance on the three pointer, the Cardinals get a lot of points inside as well, the seventh best two point shooting team in the country. With Buckles out however, Louisville may turn even more towards the trey in order to win. Kentucky lacks a true scoring center as Josh Harrellson rebounds well but doesn’t look to score much, attempting just four field goals per game. Expect Kyle Kuric to step up in the absence of Marra and Buckles. He’s played more minutes lately and scored 25 points against Morgan State on Monday. Quite simply, this game is going to be a war. The fans hate each other, the coaches do too and even the players got into it right away last year. Most rivalry games are close and despite Louisville’s personnel issues, we expect this one to be as well. However, depth could rear its ugly head if the Cardinals get into foul trouble. Louisville fouls a lot and Pitino has to ensure that doesn’t become an issue. Even though they’re on the road, Kentucky is the better team and has to get the edge here. Take the Wildcats and the points today.

#13 Minnesota @ #18 Michigan State – 4 pm on Big Ten Network (****)

A critical game for both teams, the loser will face some tough questions going forward. With a loss today, Minnesota faces the real possibility of starting Big Ten play at 1-3 with a game at Ohio State next Sunday and Indiana in between. Michigan State would drop to 8-5 overall with a loss today, making Monday’s game at Northwestern a huge one for the Spartans. For Tom Izzo’s team, the three point line is critical in this matchup. Minnesota doesn’t defend it well at all (#260) and the Spartans shoot 40% behind a trio of capable long range bombers. Durrell Summers leads Michigan State in scoring and is arguably their best shooter from deep while Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious can also knock down the trifecta. Tubby Smith likes to play a zone but that may hurt the Gophers in this matchup. Unless Minnesota extends their defense beyond the line, Michigan State can easily shoot right over it. Of course when you extend a zone there will be holes inside. Minnesota’s big men must lay down the law in the paint and force MSU to beat them from the outside. A strong defensive game will really limit the Spartans offensively and turn this into a rebounding battle, one Minnesota should feel confident in their ability to win. Michigan State has not been a vintage Izzo team in terms of defense and rebounding, a bad sign against a tall and talented Minnesota team. Trevor Mbakwe could be deadly against the Spartans today with his quickness and long arms around the tin. With Mbakwe inside and Blake Hoffarber outside, the Gophers will keep Michigan State on their toes all game long. Al Nolen must play better for Minnesota. Wisconsin shut him down on Tuesday night held the Minnesota offense in check en route to a victory. Turnovers will again be the story for the Spartans, averaging 16 per game. Extra possessions only enhance the Gophers chances. Michigan State looked awful against Syracuse and the Gopher bigs are even taller than Syracuse’s. Despite the KenPom prediction and the Vegas odds, we’re going against the grain and feel this game will come right down to the very end. This is anyone’s ballgame in East Lansing this afternoon.

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The Lede.  There were a good number of games across the college basketball landscape tonight, but few of them held much interest to the casual observer.  The most important aspect of tonight (and really, this week) is that some of the power conferences are gearing up.  We have a fundamental aversion to pre-New Years conference games, but the honchos tend to not listen to us, so we take the smattering of Big East, Big Ten and Pac-10 games dropping this week as yet another sign that the apocalypse is just around the bend and bearing down on us.

Al Nolen Meets the Wisconsin Defense (WSJ/C. Schreiner)

Your Watercooler Moment.  Wisconsin & Purdue — Still Pretty Good.  Tonight’s marquee games were both Big Ten battles, and notwithstanding the fact that it’s still 2010 and these games shouldn’t be happening so early, that won’t erase the fact that they did in fact occur and two teams that are always pretty good are still pretty good.  The bigger game was Minnesota visiting Wisconsin, and even though many of the news outlets looked at the rankings (#13 visiting #24) and subsequently called a Wisconsin eight-point win an “upset,” anyone reading this site knows better.  In fact, the Badgers were a heavy favorite in Vegas (eight points, a-ha!), and few teams go into the Kohl Center and defeat Bo Ryan.  Despite getting dominated on the boards (-13), Ryan’s team played just enough sticky possession-defense  and took the care of the ball (only two TOs) to stymie a Gopher attack that is as diversified as it has been in Tubby Smith’s era in Minneapolis.  Meanwhile, across Lake Michigan in Ann Arbor, Purdue rode its two all-Americans JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore to a nice road win over a surprising UM team in convincing fashion.  The dynamic duo went for 43/17 combined, and contributed as they always do to one of the nation’s most effective defenses in tandem.  Many people wrote off Purdue as a national title contender and Final Four threat when Robbie Hummel went down with a knee injury in October, including us, but the Boilermakers are playing such impressive defense right now that we could be convinced that Matt Painter’s team could make a run to Houston after all.  Mind you, we’re not talking about cutting down the nets, but if the Boilermakers can continue to get offensive production beyond Johnson and Moore — and several players have stepped up at various times as a third option — then with the right matchups, Purdue could still be a darkhorse F4 contender.  Matt Painter’s defense and his two seniors are that good.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Mike Montgomery, Really? The California coach earned his 600th career victory tonight against Hartford, which puts him in a group of seven active coaches to have done so.  Without a doubt, he would be the last one you’d think of — the top six are: 1) Mike Krzyzewski; 2) Jim Boeheim; 3) Jim Calhoun; 4) Bob Huggins; 5) Gary Williams; 6) Roy Williams.  Pretty selective company there, as all but Huggz has won a national title.
• 30 at the Cintas.  With tonight’s easy win over Albany, Xavier continued its second-longest homecourt winning streak in the nation to 30 games.  This is particularly amazing considering that, well, XU isn’t all that good this year.  The Musketeers have hosted six games at the Cintas Center so far this year, and already four of them have gone down to the last possession — a three-point win over Western Michigan, an overtime over IUPU-Fort Wayne, a triple-overtime win over Wofford and a two-point nailbiter over Butler.  The Muskies go for #31 on New Year’s Eve against Florida, a team with a definite upgrade in talent than most of the teams they’ve played so far this season.

• Read the rest of this entry »

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Monday was a good night for Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh handed Connecticut its first loss and Penn State knocked off Indiana on the road. Conference play rolls on today with two key Big Ten matchups in the upper Midwest. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

#11 Purdue @ Michigan – 2 pm on Big Ten Network (***)

Purdue Handled Michigan Last Season (Mich Daily/T. Sharman)

This Tuesday matinee is a great opportunity for Michigan to put itself back on the Big Ten map. The Wolverines are 9-2 against D1 competition and had a very close loss to a top five Syracuse squad. This game pits two guard heavy teams against one another, though Purdue has JaJuan Johnson in the paint. Michigan is vulnerable inside making Jordan Morgan and Evan Smotrycz important players for John Beilein this afternoon. They have to defend Johnson well but more importantly they must grab rebounds. Purdue is not a tremendous rebounding team and neither team shoots all that well so there are going to be plenty of chances for the Wolverines to pick up extra possessions. Michigan is #210 in offensive rebounding percentage and they’ll have to do a much better job than that in order to score inside. As was the case with his West Virginia teams, Beilein loves the three ball. Michigan launches an average of 24 treys per game but connects on just a third of them. Still, the three pointer is the great equalizer in college basketball and when you shoot that often, a lot of shots are going to go through the net. The problem for Michigan is that Purdue ranks #4 in the nation in three point defense and third in defensive efficiency. It’s going to be difficult for the Wolverines to score but Darius Morris will try to make things happen. Michigan’s dynamic guard is averaging 16 PPG and almost eight assists as well while shooting over 50% from the floor. He needs to have a good game and set the table for others like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak, a tremendous rebounder for his position and size. Hardaway is shooting just 30% from deep and must get going for Michigan to take the next step up and into the middle of the Big Ten pack. For Purdue, Matt Painter has hinted he’d like to go big but expect a lot of four guard sets with Lewis Jackson and E’Twaun Moore running the show. Outside of Johnson, Purdue’s bigs have averaged just over four PPG and six RPG in 25 minutes of play combined, clearly not getting it done. In order to win, Michigan has to shoot the ball well, control the boards and play solid defense. Beilein loves his 1-3-1 zone and it can work wonders against a team that doesn’t see it often. Expect him to use it in this game and adjust if Johnson does damage underneath the basket. Smotrycz is a key player because he can pull Johnson away from the basket, possessing the capability of knocking down a triple here and there. If the Wolverines can get Johnson into foul trouble early, they’ll have a great chance to pull the upset at home. Purdue is the better team but this should be a very close game today in Ann Arbor.

#13 Minnesota @ #14 Wisconsin – 7 pm on ESPN2 (****)

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***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

We told you last night’s games would be very interesting and boy were they ever. Louisville and Tennessee were upset victims at home but neither upset was shocking given the matchups we discussed in this space yesterday, plus both teams were due for a letdown. Tonight’s slate is not good at all so don’t expect much action this evening.  All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Akron @ #19 Minnesota – 8:30 pm on Big Ten Network (*)

Akron was blasted by Temple in their last game and really struggles offensively. The Zips don’t stand much of a chance in this game so one strategy may be to live or die by the three as Minnesota’s opponents get a lot of points courtesy of the trifecta. However, Akron is not a good three point shooting team to begin with, #221 in the country, but taking a page out of Virginia’s playbook could make this game somewhat competitive, at least for a while. The Cavaliers bombed away from the arc in a stunning second half turnaround against the Golden Gophers en route to a surprising win at the Barn. Akron’s Brett McClanahan and Darryl Roberts are the biggest threats but McClanahan is just seven for his last 23 (30%) from deep. The senior Roberts shoots it well at 42% and also connects 92% of the time at the foul line. Minnesota will look to take advantage with their superior size and skill inside led by Trevor Mbakwe (14/10). Mbakwe is shooting 61% overall, scoring in double figures each game so far and is clearly the most athletic of the Minnesota big men. Akron opponents get 58% of their scoring from two point range so expect Tubby Smith to exploit this early and often to build up a lead. Minnesota also has an outside threat with Blake Hoffarber at 41% from three, now hot after a little slump to start the season. Akron is also a poor rebounding team with only one major contributor taller than 6’8, center Zeke Marshall. Even without point guard Al Nolen (probably won’t play), Minnesota is too deep and too talented for Akron to compete with. The Gophers should win this game easily.

Auburn @ South Florida– 9 pm on ESPNU (*)

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John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

• The Big Ten took on some road challenges this week against mid-major opponents and came out on the right side. Unfortunately, Michigan State lost the marquee non-conference game against Syracuse and now the Big East is getting a lot of credit, but objectively, the Big Ten is still the best conference in the country.
• Team of the Week: Wisconsin: The Badgers defeated Marquette 69-64 at the Bradley Center on Saturday. Jordan Taylor led the team with 21 points and Jon Leuer added 17. Wisconsin had 15 offensive rebounds and just 10 turnovers in the victory. Leuer was also the leading scorer with 20 points as Wisconsin thrashed Milwaukee, 61-40, earlier in the week.
• Player of the Week and Newcomer of the Week: Jared Sullinger, F, Ohio State: Sullinger looked unstoppable against IUPUI as he scored 40 points and grabbed 13 rebounds against an overmatched front line. He shot 23 free throws, making 16, and also showed good feet around the basket. He followed that up with a ho-hum 17 points and five boards against Western Carolina. Still, it’s obvious that this freshman is making a big impact on the court for the Buckeyes.

• The Leaders and Legends of the Big Ten Conference are going to be playing under the above new logo come next season. Gone is the subtlety of the ‘eleven’ hidden inside of the ‘Ten’ and, instead, we’ve got a conference logo that won’t have to change until they reach 20 teams. Despite the expansion to 12 teams, the Ten stays in the name. “Leaders” and “Legends” refer to the new names for the divisions in the 12-team conference. This isn’t little league, but all the Leaders will sound like they’re in first. I can’t wait till I have to write a sentence like ‘Ohio State now leads the Leaders by a game over Illinois,’ or some such nonsense.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (8-0) – Jared Sullinger had a great week and the Buckeyes got two victories. IUPUI put up quite a fight, though. The most interesting part of Ohio State’s week was the fact that head coach Thad Matta did a lot of lineup experimentation, including not subbing until almost garbage time against IUPUI and playing five freshmen at once against Western Carolina.
2. Illinois (10-1) – Illinois didn’t let up, taking down Oakland and Northern Colorado. The game against Oakland had the funniest story of the week, as part of the first half was played with a women’s basketball.
3. Wisconsin (9-2) – Offensive rebounding was the key to the Badgers’ not-as-close-as-it-looks 69-64 victory over Marquette. The game was at the hostile Bradley Center, so it’s a good victory. Wisconsin got the unofficial state crown on Monday with a victory against Green Bay.
4. Purdue (9-1) – Give the Boilermakers credit for going to Valparaiso and taking the Crusaders’ best shot before pulling out the 76-58 victory. Purdue’s defense has been excellent this season and will be the way this team wins games in Big Ten play and beyond.
5. Minnesota (9-1) – Tubby Smith’s team went on the road and won at St. Joseph’s, then came home and beat Eastern Kentucky. Two more home snoozefests against mid-majors probably won’t teach us anything about the Golden Gophers, so we’ll wait until they open Big Ten play against Wisconsin on December 28.
6. Michigan State (7-3) – At some point, the Spartans are going to have to beat a good team to be considered one. While the victory over Washington is nice, a miss against Syracuse and a narrow escape against Oakland just added to the national narrative that Michigan State is underachieving. Expect Tom Izzo to figure this out shortly. His team has one more big non-conference game against Texas on Wednesday, December 22.
7. Northwestern (5-0) – The Wildcats didn’t play until after this writing, so they stay right here at number seven. Northwestern is done with finals, thanks to the quarter system, and thus plays twice this week – both at home and both against inferior competition.
8. Michigan (7-2) – This team is starting to figure out its identity. Against Utah, the Wolverines did a great job of getting open looks on the way to scoring 75 points in 68 possessions. Darius Morris (16.8 PPG in his last five outings) continues to look like the real deal. This is a more dangerous team than any Big Ten opponent wants to admit.
9. Indiana (7-2) – The Hoosiers played Kentucky tough for a while, but they couldn’t do enough to make it close down the stretch in an 81-62 loss. Now Tom Crean’s powder puff scheduling comes back with a games against SIU-Edwardsville and South Carolina State at Assembly Hall.
10. Penn State (7-3) – Until the Nitanny Lions fix their defense, they’re going to be ranked pretty low. Talor Battle took 20 shots in a 79-69 loss to Virginia Tech, and made nine, but the odder thing was that he didn’t have an assist or a turnover in the game.
11. Iowa (5-5) – The Hawkeyes split against in-state rivals Northern Iowa and Iowa State. This team isn’t going to be as bad as everyone thought and might even get a few wins in conference play, which might make it even more difficult for the conference to sneak seven teams into the NCAA Tournament.

A Look Ahead (all times EST)

• 12/13 – Wisconsin vs. Green Bay – Big Ten Network, 8 p.m.
• 12/15 – Minnesota vs. Akron – Big Ten Network, 8:30 p.m.
• 12/18 – Ohio State vs. South Carolina – CBS, 2 p.m.
• 12/18 – Illinois vs. UIC – Big Ten Network, 2 p.m.
• 12/18 – Iowa at Drake – 8 p.m.

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: The Big Ten is ranked first in Ken Pomeroy and first in Jeff Sagarin’s ratings. The rating systems get to their conclusions in very different ways, though, as neither really agrees about how the bottom of the conference stacks up.

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten conference.

A Look Back

The Big Ten went out and got the necessary victories to win the ACC/Big Ten Challenge 6-5 for the second season in a row. While Minnesota almost screwed things up by losing to Virginia, Purdue winning in overtime over Virginia Tech and Michigan upsetting Clemson on the road bailed out the Gophers. Also, Michigan State acquitted itself well against Duke, making the power rankings even more of a jumble.

Team of the Week

Illinois – The Fighting Illini got two good victories this week over North Carolina and Gonzaga. Both teams are talented, but Bruce Weber got his team prepared for the young Tar Heels team and then got them back up for a game in Spokane with the Bulldogs. Illinois started bombing threes in the game against Gonzaga (12-23 from three-point range), which probably has future opponents a bit worried.

Player of the Week

John Leuer, F, Wisconsin – Sometimes, Leuer’s stats don’t look so great because he plays for Bo Ryan, but this week, they were off the charts no matter how you measure them. The 6’10 senior forward had 22 points and 11 boards in a blowout of North Carolina State and then added 29 points, including 6-11 from three-point range, and nine boards against South Dakota.

Newcomer of the Week

Tim Hardaway, Jr., G, Michigan – Hardaway scored 15 points, including 7-9 from the free throw line, in Michigan’s road upset over Clemson. He then followed it up with a 1-7 shooting, three-point performance against Harvard, So he’s still got quite a bit to learn. For the season, he’s averaging 10.7 points per game.

Power Rankings

1. Ohio State (6-0) – Another week, another victory. This time, it was a 58-44 win at Florida State. There’s not much left to challenge the Buckeyes on the non-conference slate; A home game against South Carolina on December 18 is the toughest one left before Big Ten play begins.
2. Illinois (8-1) – See the Team of the Week section. Mike Davis had two good games in the victories with 20 points and 10 boards against North Carolina and 10 points and six boards against Gonzaga.
3. Michigan State (6-2) – Give credit to the Spartans for hanging with Duke in an 84-79 loss. It was a “good” loss if there ever was one. Tom Izzo’s team then went out and shellacked Bowling Green, for whatever that’s worth. Draymond Green had two solid games with 16 points, six boards, three steals and three blocks against the Blue Devils and then 10 points and 12 boards against the Falcons.
4. Wisconsin (6-2) – Bo Ryan’s team delivered an absolute shellacking to North Carolina State in the challenge, 87-48. Now a more experienced Marquette team is waiting at the Bradley Center as the Badgers begin the Wisconsin part of their schedule.
5. Purdue (7-1) – The Boilermakers got some rough news when they found out that John Hart is going to be out for a month with an injured foot. The sophomore guard was averaging 8.4 points per game this season, third best on the team. The team has played stifling defense thus far this season, including locking down the perimeter. Opponents are shooting just 25 percent from beyond the arc, which will be very helpful in conference play.
6. Minnesota (7-1) – Al Nolen was missing for the week as the Golden Gophers went 1-1 overall, including a surprising loss to Virginia in the challenge and an escape against Cornell. He’ll probably miss another week at least, so Tubby Smith needs to find a way around the problem. Trevor Mbakwe had one the oddest double-doubles you’ll ever see against Cornell, with 12 points and 16 boards. Why is that so weird? All 12 points came from the free throw line as he shot 12-20 from the charity stripe and 0-3 from the field.
7. Northwestern (5-0) – The Wildcats shot the lights out in the first half against Georgia Tech and had everyone raving about the NCAA Tournament. Since then, Northwestern hasn’t played a game. Bill Carmody’s squad doesn’t play again until Monday, December 13, against Long Island.
8. Indiana (7-1) – The Hoosiers are ranked 60th overall in Ken Pomeroy, but after losing to Boston College on the road by 12, they sort of look like paper tigers. Tom Crean’s team has built up a nice record against really soft competition. Indiana gets another test on Saturday when it takes on Kentucky at Rupp Arena.
9. Michigan (5-2) – The Wolverines pulled off the surprise of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge by winning at Clemson, 69-61. Michigan then came back to Ann Arbor and survived an upset bid by former head coach Tommy Amaker’s Harvard squad 65-62. It’s possible that John Beilein’s team might be better than people thought coming into the season. Sophomore Darius Morris is one of the top five point guards in the league. He’s averaging 13.7 points and 6.9 assists per game this season.
10. Penn State (6-2) – Once thought to be an NCAA Tournament bubble team, the Nittany Lions are looking more like an also-ran. Maryland went to University Park and rocked Penn State, holding them to just 39 points. Talor Battle scored 31 points to make sure the Nittany Lions didn’t lose to Duquesne. They get another chance to prove they’re legit with a game at Virginia Tech on Sunday.
11. Iowa (4-4) – Iowa actually plays two of the more interesting games this week. Tuesday, the Hawkeyes take on last season’s NCAA Tournament darlings, Northern Iowa, and then on Friday, Iowa State comes to visit.

A Look Ahead (all times EST)

• 12/7 – Michigan State vs. Syracuse, Jimmy V. Classic from Madison Square Garden, 9 p.m., ESPN
• 12/7 – Purdue at Valparaiso, 9 p.m., ESPNU
• 12/7 – Iowa vs. Northern Iowa, 8 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/8 – Illinois vs. Oakland, 8 p.m.
• 12/8 – Minnesota at St. Joseph’s (PA), 7 p.m.
• 12/10 – Michigan vs. Utah, 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/10 – Iowa vs. Iowa State, 8:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• 12/11 – Wisconsin at Marquette, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2
• 12/11 – Indiana at Kentucky, 5:15 p.m., ESPN
• 12/12 – Penn State at Virginia Tech, 1 p.m.

Fun with Efficiency Margin and KenPom: Conference play is just a few weeks away, but Ken Pomeroy’s numbers are already singing the praises of the Big Ten. The conference has five of the Top 20 teams overall, five of the Top 20 offenses and five of the Top 20 defenses. Most of those are the Top 5 teams in the Power Rankings, but Northwestern has the #11 offense in the country.

We’re Back.  These After the Buzzers dropped off a little bit over the long holiday weekend, and for that we apologize.  Still, we’re working through some ideas as to how we want to set them up, so if you have any suggestions for improvement or additions/deletions, we’re all ears.  So long as it doesn’t take us all night to do and it sounds reasonably interesting, we’ll consider it.  Hit us up in the comments.

The Minnesota Defense Wasn't Tight Tonight (MST/R. Tsong-Taatarii)

Your Watercooler Moment.  ACC 1, Big Ten 0.  Don’t be fooled by the fact that Minnesota was without defensive stalwart Al Nolen tonight — the Gophers still came into this home game as a fifteen-point Vegas favorite, and Tony Bennett’s Virginia team hadn’t exactly shown any signs of breaking through after a 1-2 trip to Maui last week.  A 39-18 second-half run by the Wahoos fueled by 77% three-point shooting  (10-13) erased a ten-point halftime deficit and had Tubby Smith fuming after the game about his team’s shoddy defense.  So what is the teachable moment here?  Perhaps that Minny wasn’t quite as good as their 6-0 record with wins over a UNC team in disarray and a West Virginia team still finding itself would have led us to believe?  Or that ACC teams just find ways to win these ACC/Big Ten Challenge games year after dastardly year?  Well, that’s certainly true, and the Big Ten now finds itself in a serious hole going into Day Two of the event considering that this game was a supposed lock for the midwestern league.  In looking at the remaining ten games, Ohio State on the road (@ FSU) and Illinois/Northwestern at home (vs. UNC and Georgia Tech, respectively) become must-wins, with the hope that Iowa and/or Michigan can break through versus Wake Forest or Clemson on the road.  If we were laying odds at this point as to which league will win this challenge, we’d go heavily on the ACC — that’s how important the Minnesota loss tonight at home was.

Tonight’s Quick Hits…

• Jacob Pullen’s 241st Trey.  With Pullen’s second three of the evening tonight in an easy win against D2 Emporia State, Pullen became the all-time leader in made threes at the school.  He already has 1,618 points in his career and is well on his way to becoming the all-time leading scorer at the school (he needs to average 17.8 PPG the rest of the way, assuming 28 more games).  Here’s the question, though — is Pullen the greatest player in program history?  The greatest guard?  Mitch Richmond and Rolando Blackman were awfully good players at K-State, but Pullen could eclipse both of them with a first-team all-American type of a season and a deep Tournament run.
• LaceDarius Dunn’s Return.  In two games back from suspension against admittedly weak competition, LD has averaged 22 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG, and 4 SPG while shooting 10-19 from deep.  We know that Dunn can bomb away, but only seven of his shots have been from within the circle; he may want to mix it up a little more as we get into the heart of the season.
• Blake Hoffarber’s Jumper.  He shoots them in volume like JJ Redick once did down on Tobacco Road, but every time he puts one up, we think it’s going in.  He’s been somewhat “off” so far this year, but after a 5-11 performance tonight, he’s still at 38.7% on the season.  Of course, this is down from last year’s nearly-automatic 46.7% from deep, but we figure he’ll catch fire soon enough.
• 8-0 Before December.  There are only thirty D1 teams remaining with a flawless record, but did you know that Cleveland State has already racked up eight wins before November is out?  The Vikings have mostly feasted on a steady diet of mid-level teams, but with a win already against Iona (who beat Richmond), CSU may be looking at a strong season in the Horizon League.
• Wichita State’s Balance.  One of the most effective shooting teams that you’ll find, Gregg Marshall’s Shockers utilize a cadre of ten players who average between 14-25 minutes per game, nine of whom tally at least four points per contest.  Even though WSU came out of Maui with a 2-1 record, it was the Shockers who arguably played tournament champion UConn the toughest among their three wins.

… and Misses.

• Those Ridiculous-Looking McDonald’s Stairs at The Barn.  Minnesota’s Williams Arena is a grand old barn, the fourth oldest building currently in use in Division 1 basketball.  And we certainly understand that sponsorships will happen and must happen, even at grand old barns.  But those McDonald’s stairs in the camera view on each side of the scoring table look ridiculous and are embarrassing for a program of this stature.  Maybe it would be ok if the “M”  used was the same configuration as the Gophers’ “M,” but it’s not.  Please, please get rid of this travesty.
• USC Basketball.  With four losses to the likes of Rider, Bradley, Nebraska and TCU already under its belt, Kevin O’Neill’s team is already in serious trouble this season.  The Trojans have games coming against #20 Texas, #4 Kansas and #15 Tennessee in the next three weeks, and even with Jio Fontan returning on Dec. 18 for the KU game, we’re not sure that this dysfunctional unit will recover.

Tweet of the Night.  Yeah, this is more or less what we thought too when told that TCU was becoming the seventeenth Big East basketball school.

Read the rest of this entry »

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivobut we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Some folks may be going through college basketball withdrawal today as the Thanksgiving tournaments have ended and the action is extremely light tonight. Fear not however, great games make a comeback tomorrow. All rankings from RTC and all times eastern.

Virginia @ #16 Minnesota – 7 pm on ESPN2 (**)

Blake Hoffarber Has Been Up/Down This Season

Minnesota is still riding high after their tournament win in Puerto Rico as they open the ACC-Big Ten Challenge against the Virginia Cavaliers this evening. The Golden Gophers are dealing with some injuries tonight as starting point guard Al Nolen (foot) and Rodney Williams (ankle) are unlikely to play. Coach Tubby Smith still has plenty of weapons to turn to and may get Devoe Joseph back from suspension tonight. Smith has said he’s undecided but there’s a chance that Joseph could make his first appearance of the season against Virginia. The Cavaliers went 1-2 in Maui, defeating Oklahoma while losing to Washington and Wichita State. They’re 3-3 overall and are expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC this season. Tony Bennett’s team has been, well, unlike a typical Tony Bennett team so far. Virginia has struggled on the defensive end, ranking #135 in efficiency. They’ve given up an average of 70 PPG and are #330 in defensive effective FG%. UVA doesn’t force turnovers due to Bennett’s deliberate, slow pace and have been terrible at defending the three. Virginia is almost dead last in defensive three point percentage, allowing opponents to shoot 47% from behind the arc. As you might expect, Virginia’s opponents get the largest percentage of their points from the three point line, #1 in the nation. To put this in perspective, Bennett’s last team at Washington State (2008-09) finished #6 in the country in defensive efficiency. Minnesota will look to take advantage of this weakness with Blake Hoffarber, who broke out of his early slump with 24 points on 10-16 shooting against North Dakota State on Wednesday. With Nolen out and the status of Joseph still up in the air, Hoffarber is more than capable of running the offense (2.82 assist/turnover ratio). The Gophers should dominate this game in the low post with plenty of scoring and good rebounding behind Trevor Mbakwe (14/9, 69% FG) and Ralph Sampson III (13/7, 3 blocks), but Virginia has a star of its own in 6’8 Mike Scott. The senior forward is averaging 17/9, Virginia’s only player in double figures so far this season. He’ll have his hands full with Minnesota’s stellar frontcourt but the Cavaliers are counting on him to keep them competitive tonight. 6’9 Will Sherrill can stretch the defense and he’ll need to do a lot of that by pulling Mbakwe and Colton Iverson away from the basket where they can’t get into a comfort zone. Minnesota may struggle a bit to start the game with the uncertainty of their rotation but expect a steady diet of Hoffarber from deep along with dishes to Mbakwe and Sampson III. That will allow Minnesota to pull away and win this one comfortably.

USC @ TCU – 8 pm on The Mtn. (**)

This clash between Pac-10 and Mountain West schools features a USC team coming off a bad loss at Nebraska on Saturday and a TCU club playing second fiddle to the school’s football team in the hunt for a BCS national championship. Expect this to be a low scoring game as both teams struggle offensively, each ranking outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. The Trojans are a much better defensive club, though you wouldn’t know it based on their performance against Nebraska (50% FG for the Cornhuskers). USC still ranks #29 in defensive efficiency and #7 in opponents’ offensive rebounding percentage, essentially controlling the defensive glass. Kevin O’Neill has two totally different players leading the team with his 5’7 point guard Maurice Jones (13/4/4) and 6’10 F/C Nikola Vucevic (16/11), each having a great start to the season. As you might imagine, Jones struggles shooting the trey due to his height. He still finds a way to score and get others involved making the freshman a nice piece to build around in the coming years. Vucevic is an experienced junior who teams with Alex Stepheson to create a better than average frontcourt. Stepheson, a transfer from North Carolina, had 14/9 against Nebraska and is shooting 56% from the floor this year. The Horned Frogs of TCU are led by another small point guard, 5’9 Hank Thorns. He’s averaging seven assists per game while grabbing four rebounds, pretty good for a guard of his height. TCU’s leading scorer is Ronnie Moss (16 PPG), a threat from behind the arc against a Trojan defense that ranks #237 against the trey. It’s been a struggle for TCU when it comes to rebounding the basketball as they’re really undersized. They’ve been outrebounded in all but two of their games, averaging only 31 RPG. TCU is #300 in offensive rebound percentage and #293 in two point percentage defense. Put those two stats together and you have a recipe ripe for putbacks for scores off missed shots. USC will look to take advantage of that behind Stepheson and Vucevic. The Trojans should get the ball inside early and often to utilize their size and rebounding strength in this matchup. The Trojans must get to the free throw line more often as they rank poorly in that area and only attempted two free throws against Nebraska. A more aggressive style would cure this problem but with a very slow tempo (#262), don’t expect that to change anytime soon. Well played games from Moss, Thorns or J.R. Cadot will keep TCU in this game to the end. USC is the better team but the Horned Frogs are at home so we see this as a toss-up game that may come down to the last few possessions.