If you are in the group of people who does not pay for cable television and planned to watch the NCAA Tournament on CBS and March Madness on Demand you may be out of luck. In an announcement yesterday, Turner Sports announced that they would be charging a staggering $3.99 for online access to their games. While this initially caused a few moments of unease online (since you know everything should be given away to the public for free) it is even less burdensome than it seems as those who have TBS, TNT, and TruTV from their cable provider will be able to gain access to the games online for free through the channel’s website by proving that they have the channel on their home cable package although how you will do that is a little unclear. The games that are broadcast on CBS will continue to be provided free of charge.
In this week’s edition of his power rankings Luke Winn takes a look at all aspects of how Anthony Davis blocks shots, the role of Fab Melo on defense, and the usual other statistical nuggets that he always brings us. We usually spare Luke of any criticism (mostly because he usually does not deserve it), but we are perplexed with his ranking of New Mexico as he has them as the #16 team in his rankings, which seems pretty lofty except that he had them at #12 before they won at San Diego State. We understand that he moved four other teams up quite a bit, but the reason/justification for the drop at least merits a mention.
We have seen a lot of strange coaching moves in the past few months, but the announcement that Mount St. Mary’s was putting Robert Burke on paid administrative leave per his request is one of the more odd ones. A school official citing university policy refused to release any more information about the leave. Since the school and Burke are not providing any information, the rest of us are left to speculate on what the reason is (assuming you want to spend that time thinking about a NEC team that is 6-19 overall), but the most likely (and least libelous) reason is the on-court performance of the team as Burke is 17-40 since taking over during the 2009-10 season.
Remember our link yesterday talking about how some conferences will need to merge or expand to survive? Apparently, new Sun Belt Conference commissioner Karl Benson got the memo because when he was announced as the incoming commissioner yesterday he immediately began discussing plans to expand the conference. Benson declined to name any specific targets, but it would seem like needs to act quickly as his conference has schools located in the southeastern United States from Florida to Texas making them prime targets for other conferences looking to get into or consolidate that market.
Ever since Nerlens Noel reclassified to this year’s graduating class, the interest around his recruitment has grown exponentially. The 6’10” center, who will probably end up being the #1 recruit in this year’s class when the final rankings are released, went on-air with Jeff Goodman yesterday to discuss his list of schools, which were (in no particular order) Kentucky, Connecticut, Syracuse, North Carolina, Providence, Florida, and Georgetown. [Ed. Note: He initially did not mention Providence, but tweeted a clarification soon after the show.] Much like Shabazz Muhammad, the other player in the running for #1 overall recruit, Noel does not appear to be in any hurry to announce where he will be going so we could be waiting for a while.
Posted by Patrick Prendergast on February 16th, 2012
As anticipated, Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun sat out last night’s 80-54 win over DePaul as he continues his recovery from spinal stenosis. Last night marked the fourth straight game for the Huskies without Calhoun on the sideline and he will be out a little longer. The school said Calhoun will not resume his coaching duties for at least the next two games, Saturday versus Marquette and Monday at Villanova. In recent days Calhoun was said to still be in significant pain but it appears his condition, and knowledge around how to best treat it have since improved but there is still no definitive timetable for a return as evidenced by a statement issued by Calhoun, “I am happy that we seem to have located the problem and I am currently moving forward with treatment. We have to give that treatment time to see whether or not it is effective,” said Calhoun. “I’m hoping by the middle of next week, we will have a much clearer picture of where we are and when I can look forward to getting back to doing what I do,” he added.
Lawyers for Bobby Davis and Mike Lang, who are suing Syracuse University and Jim Boeheim for defamation involving comments made in the wake of Davis’ and Lang’s accusations of sexual misconduct by former Syracuse assistant coach Bernie Fine, filed a memo opposing a previously filed motion by the defendants asking for a change of venue for the case. Currently the case is being heard in New York City but the Boeheim and Syracuse camp believe it should be moved to Onondaga County, where Syracuse is located. The prosecution wants the case to remain in New York City and cited the celebrity status that is Syracuse basketball as a reason in the memo indicating that there would be a strong bias in favor of the defendants given the larger than life presence of and adulation for the program. I am not a judge, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but the prosecution appears to have a point here.
We are staying hot on the trail of Nerlens Noel (boy did I just set myself up for some “commentary” from my colleague Mike) who is the number one recruit in the land after reclassifying to the class of 2012 and looking to sign this April. Four of his seven finalists (Syracuse, Connecticut, Providence, Kentucky, Florida, Georgetown, and North Carolina) are Big East schools. Noel had a highly publicized visit to Syracuse last weekend and there will be no shortage of things written and said when he heads to Lexington to visit Kentucky and head coach John Calipari. Kentucky hosts Mississippi on Saturday. There is much more to say here but I am going to vacate (get it Nerlens, vacate?) the rest of this item.
Yeah, that’s NOT the ticket. St. John’s fired senior associate athletic directorBrian Colleary yesterday after completing an investigating into what the school termed “inappropriate activities” involving the handling of tickets. The only specific event reported was the Big East tournament. The official statement called the reason for termination a “misappropriation of tickets”. Colleary was suspended without pay on February 9 pending a review of the situation by the school. The school also indicated the investigation revealed this was an isolated incident but additional controls have been put in place to ensure it does not happen again.
It was a bit of a slow news day around the Big East on Thursday but there were some notable tidbits emanating from last night’s game action. South Florida took out Villanova last night 65-51 to run their Big East record to 9-4 which tied a school record for Big East wins. Providence managed to make something of a game of it on the road at Cincinnati, cutting a 22 point second half deficit down to seven before succumbing to the Bearcats 81-66 which marked the 22nd consecutive conference road loss for the last-place Friars. That is not easy to do folks. Notre Dame has now won seven straight Big East games and notched their tenth Big East win (10-3) after they rolled Rutgers 71-53 last night.
Since last season’s national championship game speculation about the upcoming retirement of Jim Calhoun (and we all know it is coming sooner rather than later) has been running rampant. Calhoun decided to come back to coach what looked like a loaded defending champion, despite having to sit out the first three games of Big East play due to a suspension and the looming possibility that the 2013 Connecticut team would be unable to play in the NCAA Tournament because of the low APR scores of their predecessors. When the Huskies got off to a slower than expected start many chalked it up to a young but talented team figuring out how to play without Walker dominating the ball. As the team’s mediocre play continued, it was assumed that while this UConn team would not be a dominant one like Calhoun’s first two championship teams it still had the talent and most importantly Calhoun to make a run in March. Now it looks like the latter may not be the case.
Will Calhoun Walk Away?
When Calhoun announced earlier this month that he is dealing with spinal stenosis, which had been diagnosed this past summer, and that he would take an indefinite medical leave of absence to deal with worsening symptoms and to figure out if he would undergo surgery or proceed with conservative management, most media members assumed that Calhoun, one of the tougher individuals you will ever meet, would put off the surgery to have one last run in the NCAA Tournament. If Calhoun opts for conservative treatment, the symptoms of spinal stenosis are classically improved by sitting (something that can be hard to do if you watch this UConn team play), so it would not seem like he would be putting himself any significant risk by returning to sidelines if he can try to be a little less animated than usual. However, it has been almost two weeks since Calhoun announced that he was taking a medical leave of absence and the news out of Storrs keeps getting worse as the most recent information is that Calhoun will be out at least the next three games, which means that he would not return to coach a game until February 25 at the earliest.
CBSSports.com: Big news on the conference expansion front was reported yesterday by Brett McMurphy. Despite the fact that West Virginia will be joining the Big 12 next year (for a hefty $20 million), Pittsburgh and Syracuse won’t be joining the ACC until 2013. This is still a year earlier, as the schools expect to negotiate a deal to only pay $10 million, which is the Big East’s standard exit fee. The move will come as the Big East adds a whopping six new members, so it makes sense from a logistical standpoint.
Grantland: Shane Ryan makes his case for the ACC as basketball’s most exciting conference. He’s definitely right that the conference race has heated up after a few straight years where Duke and North Carolina battled only each other for supremacy. And I’ll also agree that the conference has a feel of “anything can happen” (case and point: Duke – Miami, Florida State – Boston College, Virginia – Clemson, etc). But I’ll have to hold off and see how the three contenders do with their destinies before anointing the ACC.
Baltimore Sun: Kevin Cowherd thinks Mark Turgeon is doing a good job with Terrell Stoglin. I think that remains to be seen, but I agree with Turgeon’s decisions to bench his star guard when he starts getting into run-and-gun mode. On a similar topic, Maryland assistant coach Scott Spinelli checked in on the Stoglin tweeting incident, saying “everything’s fine on this end.” Again, Stoglin apologized promptly and took ownership for the tweets, which I assume the coaching staff respected. The key player here is Stoglin. If he’s unhappy, all’s not well in College Park.
Charlotte Observer: When I first saw Roy Williams‘ quote that North Carolina’s depth isn’t what he “hoped it would be,” I thought he was criticizing the second string (which would go counter to Williams’ person). In reality, Williams was referring to injuries which have really cut into his ability to make hockey-esque line changes during games. An interesting thing to watch going forward is that one criticism of Williams is that he subs too often, effectively neutralizing his best players. This could be a chance to see Roy Williams’ system only go seven deep.
“He’s 27 years old. There’s nobody in our league who brings more maturity to the court than he does. Physical. Mental. Emotional. He’s a tremendous shot blocker and offensive rebounder. He’s a very unselfish player. Everybody in our league would want him on their team.”
Enough said. Also kudos to NC State’s Scott Wood for setting the ACC record for consecutive free throws made with 66.
It only took the threat of a prolonged legal battle and $20 million, but West Virginia has finally freed itself from the Big East and is now set to join the Big 12 in July. The Mountaineers had to pony up $11 million themselves while the Big 12 will cover the rest, but the exit penalty will be chump change for West Virginia who will make that money back quickly thanks to increased revenue from Big 12 television dollars. The settlement allowed the Big East to save some face in what was undoubtedly a losing battle, but it throws a large wrench in their scheduling plans since the schools defecting to the Big East won’t arrive next season. As fans of Big East basketball, it is sad to see the conference slate and the brand weakened by the departure of both West Virginia and their always quotable head coach Bob Huggins.
It’s nice to see Notre Dame finally squeaking into the Top-25, but let’s be honest, considering the Fighting Irish have won six straight games over quality competition, this probably should have happened sooner. There is just something about Mike Brey, his team’s style of play, and the program that always allows the Fighting Irish to fly under the radar until the country is forced to pay attention. Now, at 9-3 in the conference with a legitimate shot at a double bye in the conference tournament, everyone has been served notice. Notre Dame is back again, and while they don’t have star power or an overwhelming amount of talent, they do have the coach, discipline, and defensive pressure to make some noise come tournament time.
Dear Pittsburgh, I hope you are finding your stay near the bottom of the conference standings comfortable. Although it doesn’t seem very likely, we here at South Florida and DePaul and Providence dearly hope you stay awhile. I am sure you will find life away from the limelight and hoopla most relaxing. Sure, it’s not very fun to get picked on by the rest of the conference, but you have been picking on us for years, so we must admit, the sweet taste of vindication tastes delicious right now. Please, feel free to look around, enjoy our hospitality, and make sure to send a thank you note to Khem Birch before you leave. We have already sent him a few.
I am sorry Connecticut fans and Connecticut newspapers, but there is no way the Huskies deserve to get their shot at postseason play back next season. Even if the more recent members of the Huskies are on pace to surpass their predecessors in academic performance, giving the Huskies special treatment in this case would basically render the rule they passed in October useless. I agree, it doesn’t seem fair that the current players should be barred from postseason play because previous team members never hit the books, but this is about more than the players. The excuses that Calhoun lost nearly $200,000 in contractual penalties and that the program lost two scholarships are flimsy at best. That money is pittance to one of the more highly paid and legendary coaches in the sport, and the Huskies will find plenty of ways to dance around scholarship guidelines if they need to, as they were prepared to demonstrate when Andre Drummond was admitted this season. This punishment is about Calhoun and the school’s inability to get even the most minimal academic achievement from their previous basketball teams.
Despite their (nearly) impeccable record and enviable depth and talent, Syracuse still has plenty detractors out there in cyberspace. I guess it should be a positive that people are no longer debating whether Syracuse is actually a good team, they are debating whether they are an elite team, but it still seems silly. Everyone agrees that Kentucky is the best team in the country and everyone knows they are only a buzzer-beater away from being undefeated right now. But let’s remember that the Wildcats have five good wins, including a one-point win over an inconsistent North Carolina team, a 10-point win over Kansas at the beginning of the season, and a seven-point win over Louisville when the Cardinals were struggling. Don’t get me wrong, Kentucky looks like the best team in the country, but let’s not discount the Orange for a tough road win while also giving Kentucky a free pass for playing in an incredibly weak conference.
While we are not sure we can buy the methodology they used to come to their final conclusion, we were intrigued by a post by Duke Hoop Blog that attempts to quantify home court advantage in the ACC. The post was initially an attempt to defend the honor/importance of the Cameron Crazies by using statistics to prove it (since 14% of people know that you can prove anything with statistics), but some of the results they got for their proposed metrics were fairly interesting. We would love to see somebody carry out an ongoing anything like this with a little more statistical rigor to really measure home court advantage for some top teams to gauge the actual effect rather than just throwing out the usual clichés.
It appears that West Virginia will be a member of the Big 12 in July after it announced yesterday that it had settled its contentious Big East exit fee lawsuit. According to Athletic Director Oliver Luck the terms of the deal are confidential, but no tuition, taxpayer, state, or academic funds would be necessary to pay for it [Ed. Note: He didn’t mention if his son Andrew would be chipping in a token amount after April’s NFL Draft.] While this would create a precedent for both Syracuse and Pittsburgh to leave for the ACC, but both schools appear to be willing to wait the mandated 27-months before leaving the conference.
With the increasing separation of teams from the media and public it is nice to see that John Calipari has decided to open today’s practice to Kentucky students, faculty, and staff. Calipari feels that the different environment will help his team stay sharp with a long gap between games as he feels that a long layoff played a role in the team’s only loss of the season. We doubt that Calipari will unveil any new sets, but those in attendance will get to see the team practice for 30-40 minutes and then see two 10-minute scrimmages along with some other interaction with the fans. We will be watching to see how this goes and if any other coaches may try implementing this in the future.
One of the biggest traditions in sports is retiring the jerseys of great players, but one major program–Indiana–does not engage in the practice. Terry Hutchens, stealing an idea from former Hoosier A.J. Guyton, takes a look at the ten former Hoosiers whose jerseys he would raise in Assembly Hall. Hutchens lists ten Hoosiers who played at the school for at least three years, which ruled out some very big names, but he still managed to put together a solid list of ten Hoosiers. With the resurgence of the program, we would be interested to see if the Indiana administration would consider retiring a few jerseys as a way to help link the old Hoosier program with the new one.
Finally, for those of you who are craving college basketball sabermetrics, we bring you “Tuesday Truths” by John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus. If a ton of numbers make your brain overload then this post is perfect for you as it breaks the nation’s top 14 conferences down by teams and looks at pace (possessions per 40 minutes) and points per possession on offense and defense along with the difference between the two. Depending on whether or not you believe in advanced statistics in basketball it is a useful general tool to figure out which teams may be ranked too high and which teams may be ranked too low.
Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter. TT4 will cover four selected teams of interest – Syracuse, Indiana, Murray State, and UNLV – by tracking their ups, downs, and exciting developments throughout the course of the season.
It was only a matter of time. Murray State had been narrowly escaping against OVC competition in the past few games, so it shouldn’t come as a huge shock that the Racers lost their first game of the year on Thursday against a Tennessee State team ranked second in the conference standings. The loss certainly hurts the team’s postseason seeding and kills off the major story that was the undefeated season, but the team may actually benefit from shedding that spotlight off their back. They have a quick turnaround with their most challenging week of the season upcoming. Elsewhere, Syracuse just completed a monster week of wins, and UNLV and Indiana handled business with big home victories. Let’s get to this week’s outlook:
Syracuse Orange
C.J. Fair Was Huge for Syracuse Against Louisville, One of Three Big Wins This Week For the Orange (Getty Images/A. Lyons)
Trending UP Because… – They had an awesome week, solidifying themselves as a top team in the land alongside Kentucky. Cuse played tight games against Georgetown and at Louisville, but great late-game execution lead to victories. Throw in Saturday’s win over Connecticut and the Orange are now 26-1 and 13-1 in the Big East, looking like a near-lock for a #1 seed come March Madness.
This Week’s Key Cog – Kris Joseph. Who said this team doesn’t have a go-to guy? Joseph scored 29 points, including the game-winning three in overtime, in Wednesday’s win over Georgetown. He averaged a team-high 17.0 points per game in the three victories.
Talking Point – Coach Jim Boeheim talked about Monday’s ugly win at Louisville, which ended with a score of 52-51: “You can either give the defenses credit or say it was a bad offensive game. We’re going to look on the bright side and say it was a real defensive struggle tonight.”
Erasing History – The Orange had lost seven straight games to Louisville heading into Monday’s matchup, and it looked like the streak was going to reach eight when the team trailed by five points with under 4:00 to play. But Jardine and Joseph, two seniors who have never beaten the Cards, were able to erase that history and taste their first ever victory against Rick Pitino’s squad when they closed out the game with strong defense.
Stats Central – Monday’s victory was nothing to write home about. Syracuse averages a conference-leading 111.9 offensive efficiency in Big East games, but they only recorded an 89.7 rating in the game against Louisville. Nonetheless, they held the Cardinals to an 87.9 efficiency themselves and walked way with a one-point road victory.
What’s Next? – The Orange play just once this week, at Rutgers on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, ESPN) against a struggling Scarlet Knights team. However, Rutgets has already defeated Florida, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame at home this season, and the RAC has become a tough place to play.
Evan Jacoby is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @evanjacoby on Twitter.
Are you riding solo this Valentine’s Day? If you can’t have a significant other, you can always love sports. What is more beautiful to watch than a buzzer-beating shot, an unlikely upset win, or a swarm of students rushing the court? Here to cheer you up, we present a reminder of 14 lovely moments in college basketball this season, in honor of the 14th:
Be Our Hoops Valentine...
1. Racers’ Pursuit of Perfection (December 11) – Murray State beat then-ranked Memphis on the road to improve their record to 10-0, and fans and analysts immediately began to take notice of this OVC school. This win set off the idea that the Racers could perhaps run the table this season, and while it did not happen, it would be two full months before they lost a game.
2. Teach Us How to Dougie (January 7) – Creighton has now lost three straight games to drop out of the Top 25 rankings for the first time in weeks, but they’d been providing a great story all season in the form of Doug McDermott. The sophomore forward, son of Creighton head coach Greg McDermott, and former teammate of Harrison Barnes in high school, went for 44 points and eight rebounds in a road win over Bradley that kickstarted his campaign for National Player of the Year. His candidacy for the award has since died down, but he’s still third in the nation in points per game (22.9).
3. Watford’s Buzzer-Beater (December 10) – Indiana got off to a fast start this season, but the Hoosiers took it to another level when they knocked off #1 Kentucky at home to improve to 9-0 back in December. Down by two, it took this shot by Christian Watford to beat the buzzer and provide us with one of the most memorable highlights of the year. The shot signified that IU basketball is officially back. See it below.
4. Rivers’ Buzzer-Beater (February 8) – Perhaps the only more recognizable moment of this season than Watford’s shot was a similar one from Duke’s Austin Rivers. Down by two at Chapel Hill on the final possession, the freshman provided this season’s iconic moment thus far by nailing a game-winner at the buzzer to beat North Carolina. The main difference between the two shots? Rivers’ came on the road, silencing the UNC crowd and sending them into shock.
Brian Otskey is the RTC correspondent for the Big East conference. You can find him on Twitter @botskey.
Reader’s Take
The Week That Was
Big East Adds Memphis: While conference realignment is unfortunately all about football, the addition of Memphis to the Big East Conference is a boon for basketball. With the league losing Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia, it needed a strong basketball program to limit the damage of three venerable programs departing. Memphis is perhaps the best the Big East could do from a basketball perspective and the Tigers will begin competing in the conference in the 2013-14 academic year. While the Big East cannot replace a program with the stature of Syracuse, Memphis is arguably at least as good, if not better, than Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Temple would be the next logical choice from a basketball perspective but Villanova has long been rumored to be firmly in opposition to the Owls joining the league. Conference realignment is a new reality and won’t end any time soon. Expect some more dominoes to fall over the coming months and years.
West Virginia Reportedly Settles: Just 36 hours after Memphis joined the Big East, West Virginia reportedly settled with the Big East on an exit agreement, although no official announcement was made. If the Charleston Daily Mail report is correct, West Virginia will leave the Big East on July 1 of this year in order to join the Big 12 Conference. The reported agreement says that WVU will pay the Big East $11 million, with the Big 12 contributing $9 million. Big East bylaws require all member institutions to give 27 months notice before leaving the conference. If the Mountaineers do leave the conference, the Big East will have 15 basketball members for next season (2012-13) before expanding again in the summer of 2013. Of course, West Virginia’s early exit could pave the way for agreements with Syracuse and Pittsburgh, allowing those schools to leave early for the ACC. In a worst-case scenario, the Big East will have 13 basketball teams in 2012-13. One thing is for sure, this story is far from over. Stay tuned.
NCAA Denies Connecticut’s Waiver Request: In what was another good move by the increasingly tough NCAA, the governing body denied a request by Connecticut to retain eligibility for the 2013 NCAA Tournament in exchange for self-imposed penalties. Those penalties included forfeiting revenue and playing a shorter schedule. The Huskies would not quality for next year’s tournament because of their low APR rating, below the four-year minimum requirement of 900 or two-year average of 930. UConn will appeal the decision, one that, if denied, could have a huge effect on the basketball program in Storrs. Will Jim Calhoun stick around? Will recruits want to come there and knowingly sit out a year? Many questions still need to be answered as the Connecticut basketball program enters a period of uncertainty.
Win Number 880 for Jim Boeheim: The Syracuse legend now stands alone in third place on the all-time Division I wins list behind Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski and Bob Knight after Syracuse beat Georgetown last week. Number 880 is one better than Dean Smith, a legend in his own right at North Carolina. While it is unlikely that Boeheim can catch Krzyzewski since both will keep winning, the Orange coach can pass Knight early next season, especially if Syracuse goes on a deep NCAA Tournament run. It’s so rare to see an athlete or a coach stay at one school for his entire career in sports these days but that’s exactly what Boeheim has done. The Hall of Famer has been at Syracuse as a coach since 1969 and played for the Orange from 1962-66. What a truly remarkable career spanning 50 years (and still going strong).
Josh Pastner Looks Forward To Embracing A More Challenging Change of Scenery In The Big East
Power Rankings
Syracuse (25-1, 12-1) – The Orange dispatched their chief rivals in the Big East, Georgetown and Connecticut, in vastly different ways last week. Against the Hoyas, Syracuse needed overtime to put away a team that out-rebounded them 48-30 and slowed the pace to limit SU’s transition attack. Kris Joseph led Syracuse with a career-high 29 points and Fab Melo had six blocks as the Orange won by three in the extra session. Neither team played well, but Jim Boeheim picked up his 880th career win, moving ahead of Dean Smith and into sole possession of third place on the all-time list. Against Connecticut, the Orange broke open a close game in the second half with a 22-6 game-ending run. Syracuse shot much better (59%), including a scorching 63% from beyond the arc. Dion Waiters and C.J. Fair combined for 32 points and 16 rebounds off the bench while Scoop Jardine added 21 points on 8-of-9 shooting. It seems like Joseph is emerging as the go-to guy for this team, a question that had yet to be answered for the better part of the season. Syracuse faces a quick turnaround with a Big Monday game at Louisville, a team that has beaten them seven consecutive times. This week: 2/13 @ Louisville, 2/19 @ Rutgers. Read the rest of this entry »
Brian Otskey is the Big East correspondent for RTC and a regular contributor. You can find him @botskey on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.
Louisville has owned Syracuse over the last six years. Will that continue this evening? In the Big 12, Kansas State faces a huge game with in-state rival Kansas. Big Monday is just that on this night. Rankings are subject to change with a new RTC Top 25 coming out today.
#2 Syracuse @ Louisville – 7:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)
Louisville Has Owned the Orange in Recent Years (AP Photo/Kevin Rivoli)
Syracuse has won five straight games since losing at Notre Dame on January 21, but the Orange better be ready for a challenge tonight in Louisville. The Orange have lost their last seven games to the Cardinals, their last win coming six years ago (Louisville’s first season in the Big East). To stave off another Louisville upset, Syracuse has to play strong defense and turn Louisville over. The Cardinals rank #218 in turnover percentage and Syracuse is among the best in the nation in creating steals and points off turnovers. The Orange fast break is absolutely lethal, quite often sparked by Dion Waiters off the bench. Waiters is #4 among individuals in steal percentage and Louisville has been vulnerable to giveaways all season long. Syracuse is the better team but it must play with poise and toughness on the road against a team that will play hard for all 40 minutes with a raucous home crowd cheering them on.
Louisville is going to have to make outside shots and stop Syracuse from getting out in transition in order to win its eighth consecutive games against the Orange. Louisville shot the three well in two games last week, going 44% against Connecticut and 46% against West Virginia (season average = 32.8%). Look for Rick Pitino to put Kyle Kuric on the free throw line in Louisville’s zone offense, using the versatile senior to hit the mid-range shot, pass, or drive to the rim. Kuric and point guard Peyton Siva have to probe the zone cautiously but can’t be lulled into passing the ball around the perimeter. To beat Syracuse, Louisville must attack the zone north/south rather than east/west. The Cardinals must shoot the ball well to win, no ifs, ands or buts about it. That’s not a strength for Louisville but Syracuse puts up a lot of points. Louisville must keep pace and put forth a strong defensive effort. Gorgui Dieng has the potential to have a similar impact as Fab Melo defensively. If that’s the case, Louisville may be able to force Syracuse into contested jumpers in their half court offense. Dieng and Melo are incredible presences in the paint so you’d have to think the team that does best in transition and shoots the best from mid-range should win the game.
If Syracuse is going to lose another regular season game this season, this is it. Pitino has flat out owned Jim Boeheim over the last half decade, coming up with schemes to score against Boeheim’s patented 2-3 zone. Pitino’s issue this season is that his team doesn’t shoot threes well (despite last week’s success) and struggles to score in general. Louisville likes to press and a faster tempo could play right into the hands of the Orange. Louisville has Wayne Blackshear healthy for the first time this season after playing 20 minutes in Saturday’s win over West Virginia. Blackshear could be a key factor in the game because he adds depth and scoring ability to a Louisville lineup that is one of the few that comes close to Syracuse in terms of depth. The Orange are still much superior in that category but Louisville can rotate players in and out, keeping them fresh for 40 minutes. This should be a close game with Louisville’s shooting ability likely to be the determining factor.
#7 Kansas @ Kansas State – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN (****)
