Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Saturday, March 10, 11:14 PM ET.

• NC State drops two spots on the S-Curve out of the NCAA Tournament field, moving Seton Hall in. The reason: NC State’s neutral court win on Friday over Virginia and sweep of Miami decreased in value in the last 24 hours. Virginia plummeted to a #52 RPI and Miami dropped out of the projected field following their loss to Florida State and Durand Scott’s ineligibility.
• Colorado wins the Pac-12 automatic bid and will likely be a #13 seed in the field. Arizona is not on the bubble. Ohio replaces Akron as the MAC auto bid.
• The final #1 seed will come down to the Big Ten Tournament final, so the committee may have two different brackets prepared in case either Michigan State or Ohio State emerge victorious. I believe the winner will surpass Kansas for the last #1 seed in the Phoenix region as the champion of both a share of the regular season title and the tournament title of the top conference in college basketball. Kansas beat Ohio State, but that game was played in Lawrence without Jared Sullinger, a fact the committee should consider.
• New Mexico jumps to a #6 seed with a share of both the regular season MWC title, conference tournament title and two wins against UNLV and San Diego State. On the back of a solid RPI/SOS and the huge win over North Carolina, the Rebels are also a #6 seed.

• Last Four In: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Drexel, Texas.
  
• First Four Out: NC State, Miami (FL), Washington, Oral Roberts.
  

3/10 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Kansas

2 Seeds: Michigan State, Ohio State, Duke, Missouri

3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Louisville, Florida State, Wisconsin, Indiana

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, Temple, Vanderbilt

6 Seeds: Florida, New Mexico, UNLV, Cincinnati

7 Seeds: Creighton, Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s, Memphis

8 Seeds: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Iowa State, Kansas State

9 Seeds: Purdue, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Alabama

10 Seeds: Harvard, West Virginia, Southern Miss, Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, BYU, VCU, Long Beach State

12 Seeds: California, Xavier, South Florida, Texas, Drexel

13 Seeds: Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Colorado, Davidson, Belmont

14 Seeds: New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Montana, Ohio

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Detroit, Lehigh, LIU-Brooklyn

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Lamar, Vermont, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Vermont, Xavier, North Carolina, Belmont, Missouri, Louisville, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Ohio, Norfolk State, Creighton, New Mexico, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Colorado, Lehigh, Kentucky, Davidson, Lamar, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, New Mexico State.

Bids per conference: Big East (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), Mountain West (4), ACC (4), Atlantic 10 (3), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Colonial (2), Pac-12 (2).

Here’s a breakdown of how things went down in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals on Friday in Indianapolis:

Wisconsin senior Rob Wilson was practically unstoppable on Friday. (AP)

Here’s a breakdown on how things went down in the Big Ten tournament’s first day of action:

Matt Gatens led Iowa to a big win over Illinois (Andy Lyons, Getty Images)

Iowa 64 – Illinois 61

The skinny: It’s been a tough season for Illini fans, and now (some would say thankfully) it is over. Myers Leonard was a force down low for Illinois, scoring 18 points and grabbing six boards, but Brandon Paul struggled his way to four points on 2-11 shooting. Meanwhile, Matt Gatens continued his solid senior season with 20 points to lead the Hawkeyes, but it was his defense on Paul that really was the difference in this contest for Iowa. Head coach Fran McCaffery complained earlier this week about Gatens not being included on the all-Big Ten defensive team, and the senior looked every bit an elite-level stopper in this match-up. All-Big Ten freshman Aaron White had 13 points and 9 rebounds including a key offensive board with about 40 seconds left after a missed free throw by Roy Devyn Marble that helped seal the game for Iowa.

Up next: The #8-seed Hawkeyes will face #1-seed Michigan State at noon today. Iowa only played the Spartans once this season, falling 95-61 in a game at East Lansing on January 10.

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Bill Hupp is the RTC correspondent for the Big Ten Conference.

Conference Tournament Preview

After a thrilling regular season, it’s on to Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Despite being a three-seed, Ohio State has to be considered the favorite given how well they ended the regular season. If either Michigan State or OSU wins the Big Ten Tournament, they will get strong consideration for a one-seed. Teams like Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue can all improve their NCAA Tournament seeds with strong showings this weekend.

Northwestern is the only clear bubble team in the conference, and as such is under the most pressure to string some wins together. If the Wilcats can beat Minnesota in the first round, they’ll face a Michigan team that they only lost to twice this season, though both losses came in overtime. Two wins in the Big Ten tournament should make them a virtual lock for their first-ever tournament birth, but it’s much easier said than done with this level of competition.

A Look Back

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Big Ten contributors Joey Nowak (@joeynowak), Ryan Terpstra (@terphimself), and Deepak Jayanti (@10thyearseniors) put their heads together and discussed some key questions heading into the Big Ten Tournament.  Here are their thoughts:

1.) What school playing on Thursday has the best shot to win the Big Ten Tournament?

Joey:  I really think any team besides Nebraska and Penn State (though if Tim Frazier heats up, Penn State could have a repeat of last year) has a chance to do damage. Minnesota and Illinois both have talent and nothing to lose. Purdue is playing better, with the experienced Robbie Hummel at the helm, and has a bit of a chip on its shoulder. Iowa has a guy in Matt Gatens they can ride to a win or two. And Northwestern should come in as focused as any team in the tournament, given what’s at stake for the Wildcats.

Jesse Baumgartner is an RTC columnist. His Love/Hate column will publish each week throughout the season. In this piece he’ll review the five things he loved and hated about the previous seven days of college basketball.

Five Things I Loved This Week

I LOVED….pureness. Some would argue that there’s nothing better than a last-second buzzer-beater. FALSE. There’s nothing better than a last-second buzzer beater that also touches zero iron on the way down. Ohio State’s William Buford gave us one of those on Sunday against Michigan State for a huge win, and for me the swish adds even a little bit more to the drama. I’m thinking back to Isaiah Thomas’ Pac-10 conference tourney walk-off last year, and some others, too – maybe I’m just an absurdly picky fan, but nothing beats the twine tickler with the clock ticking down.

I LOVED…..Buford. The senior has had some subpar games during this conference season, and he’s the main reason why I’ve started to sour a bit on the Buckeyes. But if he plays like he can, he can take this OSU team to a different level on both ends of the floor. They need his long-range shooting to diversify their O, and his freakish athleticism on the defensive side, too. If he’s that guy in March, the Buckeyes could be there at the end.

If William Buford Can Play Like He Can, Ohio State Becomes That Much Better (USA Today)

I LOVED….the tables being turned. My UNC loyalty has been mentioned before, and I’ve truly never been as heartbroken as when Austin Rivers’ three dropped into the Dean Dome net back in February as time expired. I wondered if anything could make up for that painful disappointment, and I have to say, this might have done it. Absolutely demolishing, obliterating, dominating, embarrassing, and – oh yeah – BEATING Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Senior Night was heavenly (and I can’t say that watching Mason Plumlee cry didn’t give me some sick sort of pleasure). You make the pick though – comparing the two outcomes, which would you prefer?

I LOVED….Florida State following through. The 33-point win over Carolina, the buzzer-beater at Duke, it would been easy for these overachieving Seminoles to be happy with what they did and settle for another ho-hum conference season. But Leonard Hamilton kept FSU focused, and they’re fully deserving of their impressive 12-4 conference record and a guaranteed NCAA tourney berth. Well done down in Tallahassee.

I LOVED….Murray State both keeping pace and getting some cred in the rankings, even after that one loss. With their clutch tourney title finish, the Racers head into March Madness at 30-1 and have to start drawing some comparisons to last year’s San Diego State squad.

Five Things I Hated This Week

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1. What can we expect from Ohio State this weekend in Indianapolis? Many are unsure, and that includes the Columbus Dispatch’s Rob Oller. The Buckeyes are just 4-3 in their last seven games, and it’s hard to say how that Sunday date in East Lansing would have gone if Michigan State had Branden Dawson for the duration. But Ohio State has battled through its late-season troubles for a share of the Big Ten title. The question is, where do they go from here? Is this the same team many people thought could run the table in the Big Ten? They’ve had role players step up in the last few weeks, but does Thad Matta’s group have the depth to make a run? Only one way to find out.
2. As of Tuesday, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi had Northwestern as one of the last four teams in his mock NCAA Tournament bracket. But CBSSports.com‘s Jerry Palm tells Teddy Greenstein that Northwestern needs to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to seal a bid in the Big Dance. That would mean a win against Minnesota on Thursday, and then an upset of two-seed Michigan on Friday in the second round. It seems the Wildcats’ fate is in their own hands.
3. Fran McCaffery made no bones about his thoughts on the All-Big Ten teams and how it relates to his Hawkeyes. McCaffery said on his weekly radio show early this week that he believes Matt Gatens should have been on the first team. “I voted him on the first team,” McCaffery said. “I think Matt Gatens is one of the five best players.” McCaffery also said he felt Gatens — a second-team media selection and third-team coaches pick — also should have been on the All-Defensive team.
4. Plenty of college basketball pundits around the country love hammering the RPI, so why not give this system that a Minnesota graduate student came up with a try? Luke Stanke has developed a statistical model that he says can more fairly choose and seed the 68 NCAA Tournament teams and calls it the “Win Index.” Sounds like somebody’s got a lot of free time on his hands.
5. It hasn’t been an easy road back for Purdue senior Robbie Hummel, but he was rewarded this week by being named to the All-Big Ten first team for the third time in his career. Hummel, who was part of the “Baby Boilers” class that helped bring Purdue back to the college basketball forefront, is averaging 22.6 points and 9.6 rebounds in Purdue’s last seven games. Hummel is the 18th Big Ten player to earn three first-team berths, and the first since Michigan State‘s Mateen Cleaves in 2000.

We’ve spent the last couple weeks prognosticating and projecting the Big Ten Tournament bracket for this upcoming weekend in Indianapolis, but we now finally have something concrete to work from. The field has been set, and it’s just a matter of a few short days before things get underway. Below are the preliminary matchups with a few things to keep an eye on:

First round on Thursday:

• #8 Iowa vs. #9 Illinois (11:30 AM ET on BTN)
• #5 Indiana vs. #12 Penn State (25 minutes later, BTN)
• #7 Northwestern vs. #10 Minnesota (5:30 PM, ESPN2)
• #6 Purdue vs. #11 Nebraska (25 minutes later, ESPN2)

Will the Big Ten Tournament be kind to John Shurna and Northwestern's NCAA Tournament hopes? (Charles Cherney/AP)

Second round on Friday: 

• #1 Michigan State vs. Iowa/Illinois winner (12:00 PM, ESPN)
• #4 Wisconsin vs. Indiana/Penn State winner (25 minutes later, ESPN)
• #2 Michigan vs. Northwestern/Minnesota winner (6:30 PM, BTN)
• #3 Ohio State vs. Purdue/Nebraska winner (25 minutes later, BTN)

We’ll talk about the semifinals and championship game once we reach that point, but there’s plenty to talk about in the first two days for now.

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Michigan State knows plenty about the Kenyon Martin Effect. When Martin — the consensus 2000 National Player of the Year as a senior at Cincinnati after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game — broke his leg in the Conference USA Tournament, it drastically affected the Bearcats’ hopes for a national title. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee took notice as well, and knocked Cincinnati down to a #2 seed, when they probably would have otherwise been the #1 overall seed. It proved to be somewhat prophetic as the Bearcats were upset in the second round by Tulsa, and MSU went on to win Tom Izzo’s only national championship.

Without Branden Dawson, can the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament or make a run in the Big Dance? (Daniel Mears / Detroit News)

Branden Dawson — the Michigan State freshman wing who tore his ACL in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State ––  is no Kenyon Martin. Martin went on to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft that year and has had a nice pro career, while Dawson still has plenty of room to grow though he likely has the highest ceiling of anyone on this Spartans squad. But how will Dawson’s injury affect Michigan State’s postseason chances and the chances the Committee gives them? The Spartans still have to play the Big Ten Tournament (they will be the #1 seed in Indianapolis this weekend), but are unlikely to receive a #1 seed in the Big Dance. If they win the Big Ten Tourney, they are likely a lock for a #2 seed. If they fizzle out, a #3 seed is possible.

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For the seventh straight week, Kentucky heads the Top 25. The Wildcats breezed through the SEC portion of their schedule and are en route to the #1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. Florida and Baylor are two teams that continue to slide as their defense — or lack thereof — has been exposed. The Quick ‘n Dirty after the jump…

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